Nate Silver Crunches Election Data and Comments on the State of the National Discourse

we're joined Now by Nate silver uh who's got a book out called on the edge which I have finished and read and really enjoyed I also liked his book I think I'm correct in this Nate your prior book was the signal and the noise which was about trying to use probability uh analysis I don't know if you remember this uh but we have we have met in person out in Vegas you love playing poker I have recognized that I am not good enough at math in real time to be very good at poker I don't have that skill set like a lot of great poker players do uh but what I love about your work is you try to use data and be rational in a world that has become wildly irrational it feels like every single day so I want to start with this you became somewhat well known I would say uh with your analysis and predictions of the 2012 election but in the 12 years that you've been uh a public figure and to a large degree since that do you think National discourse has gotten better or worse and if you think it's gotten worse which I think most people would say that it has are we starting to get a little bit better now or is the discourse continuing to get worse how would you assess the broader picture of sort of the national character of debate in this country as we sit two months from an election yeah thank you clay no look I think over the course of this gosh 16 years I've been covering politics it got pretty consistently worse from 2008 when I started to 2020 in the kind of pandemic year where we had the racial Reckoning and and covid all this stuff an election year I think in the past four years it might have gotten a little bit better I think people have a little bit more of a sense of humor I think it's interesting seeing Twitter go from being this Lial platform to more conservative frankly under Elon um you know you see more independent content creators on platforms like substack where I have my newsletter silver buletin for example so I feel a little bit more optimistic I suppose not being in a huge pandemic is is helpful at least okay um one of the big things that you write about in your book is being willing to reexamine your priors that is things that you believe if there's data that suggests hey maybe I was wrong about this going back and looking at it and being honest in the way that you analyze that data I agree I think that's super important what percentage of Americans do you think actually do that in their day-to-day life oh gosh like you know 5% or 10% about 90% of people are going to vote for one party or another every single time and look it's hard it's hard to admit error right it's hard for me to do that too the discipline of having a model or a process is that you follow some type of discipline and in how you look at the world um but yeah if you just kind of ping pong back and forth based on the most recent conversation you had then you won't be very well off I mean you can be driven Crazy by Twitter and social media you know when when our forecast had Biden trailing Trump people are like oh is Nate like a Maga supporter now right people I think cat separate out that some of us are actually curious about trying to make forecasts or or you know I political preferences probably that don't match your audience that much clay but I'm trying to be at arms length and trying to be as accurate as I can be okay so uh I've voted I've said this before I voted Democrat in the past I'm going to vote Trump in 2024 um I I I was we buck and I have debated this and talked about it quite a lot how many people do you think there are out there on a percentage basis that are open to go from voting Trump 16 Biden 20 and then going back to Trump in 24 in other words how many people are they really competing for uh particularly in the Battleground States if you were trying to assess what that number looks like what are we basically spending a billion dollars to try to persuade how persuadable is that audience yeah look it's maybe 10% of the electorate and 20% of the states or 10% of the states that matter so yeah this billion dollars is being spent on on 1% of the electorate you've seen polarization increase a lot although there is more split ticket voting you see in Congress for example people splitting between the Democrat for congress um and maybe a trump vote but yeah look I in my life I've certainly there's more of a permission structure to use a fancy term to vote for Trump and in some groups Silicon Valley for example but we're talking about you know 90 plus% of people have made their mind up already so when you look we're talking to Nate Sil who's got a great new book out uh called on the edge when you look at Elon musk RFK Jr and Tulsi gabard I I would say that that in many ways my political Evolution mirrors what they've done I was maybe a few years ahead of them and Co accelerated it do you think that those three obviously very big name and Elon Musk and given the fact that he owns Twitter tulsey gabard RFK Jr do they change anything in terms of your Calculus I was reading in axios that that one way to connect those three people and I think it connects with of my political worldview is that the first amendment is sort of the thing that matters the most to me and so I'm going to vote for whoever I think is going to have the most robust open policy for discussion whether I agree or disagree with them I think that's where a lot of the Trump support now is coming in Silicon Valley does RFK Jr uh does Does Elon Musk and uh does tulsy gabard to your point give any cover for people who might be willing to consider Trump that haven't done it before what's their impact I mean so RFK we removed him from our model this weekend um so far not much impact but we're kind of taking a weight and see attitude uh you might have KLA Harris's uh convention bounce diminished a bit by that it was only three or 4% of the vote but I think the broader thing here is like you know it's now conservatism that's the anti-establishment party yeah um and different flavors of it right um not just the trumpan flavor but you see in those other you know Elon Musk for example a guy that um you know one of the greatest uh founders of our time um and yeah look I used to be again I'm G to I'm not going to vote for Trump um I'll vote for Harris probably but yeah I I you know the Free Speech stuff bothers me to pause you because I'm actually I think you'd overlap with me on the Free Speech stuff but so you said you're not gonna vote for Trump you're gonna vote for Harris yeah I would vot for Biden because I thought it was very irresponsible to nominate somebody who was that old and clearly not capable of being president for another four years would you wouldn't have voted for Biden well how would you have voted if Trump was going on probably libertarian or see which other which other funky third party candidates were on the ballot where in New York where I don't really have a vote but yeah I get it you live in New York right so you're I'm in Tennessee it doesn't really matter who I vote for uh in in terms of the uh the presidential election because my State's going to go for plus 20 what do you think KLA Harris is going to do well you thought Biden was too old I think there's people out there who would say yeah I agree with that now you say but you're willing to vote for KLA she's going to be 60 years old she's you know 22 years some odd younger than Biden what attracts you to kamla what do you think she's going to do well or what do you think she's done well in the past or is it just you're not willing to vote for Trump yeah to me some of the January 6 stuff was pretty disqualifying um look I think she has shown some tendency to play for the center um yeah there's some degree of foot flopping there for sure um but her convention speech she talked about how he wanted like a lethal military and how he want to kick China's butt and things like that was a very atypical speech for Democrats um that spoke to the CER and usually I watch speeches like at arms like I'm like this is not speaking to me I'm not a partisan Democrat whatever but like she showed some instincts there that I thought were were a little different and yeah you're getting some flip-flopping for sure but but look I mean you know with the January 6 stuff that's kind of just an issue for me and Biden's age was also disqualifying so now it's kind of process of elimination I suppose okay I'm going to give you a pass on that because I don't see how anybody with a functional brain can vote for comma and you clearly have a functional brain but I want to dive into your modeling and the Battleground States here again talking to Nate silver uh who was smart despite the fact that he says he's gonna vote for kamla um all right so you have an interesting read I was reading it North Carolina and Georgia um two Southern States they did not move in tandem all the time they went in different directions in 2020 my thesis is Trump's going to win North Carolina and Georgia uh I think that he is that's what the betting markets would show right now how connected are they in your analysis do you like K's chances in North Carolina more than Georgia vice versa How likely are they to move together in your mind yeah look we have Trump as a modest favorite about 6040 in both States um she's actually polling better in North Carolina which might be a bit counterintuitive but keep in mind that in 2008 Barack Obama won North Carolina and not Georgia um you have a very popular GOP governor in Georgia although not one that Trump gets along with terribly well um they're not identical um North Carolina has a substantially larger white population although they're both quite diverse um we had seen Biden's numbers frankly collapse crater with um younger voters of color younger black voters younger Hispanic voters Harris has gotten about half of that back so she's competitive in these states but um you actually have some degree of racial depolarization in the country which other things being equal I think is probably a healthy thing uh okay so the other states that I think are most fascinating clearly what I call the Big 10 states Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin they all moved together in 16 Trump won them all Biden won them all in 2020 what are the chances that they moved together in your mind in 24 and how would you assess them state by state in terms of the odds that Trump would win because if I'm right and if your analysis is right if Trump wins North Carolina and he wins Georgia the easiest way for Trump to win the election is to win Pennsylvania and it's over and it doesn't even matter what happens in Nevada Arizona Michigan or Wisconsin he would have the requisite electoral votes so how would you assess those three states chances they move together where does Trump have the best chance where does KLA have the best chance yeah and they do tend to vote together as Hillary Clinton learned the hard way in 2016 um you know of the three Pennsylvania is the one where I mean look KL Harris has been a good in a good period for the polls but Pennsylvania has been still a tossup a photo finish there's a chance she'll regret not picking Josh Shapiro um Tim Wallace has been effective in some ways but look I'm a math guy and I'm like yeah I want those electoral bootes if I were her probably um there are different factors in each state you see in Michigan for example has a larger Palestinian Arab American population I think Democrats are fortunate that the Gaza issue seems to have been diffused quite a bit you know Wisconsin's more Ural than the other two Pennsylvania is kind of Northeastern instead of Midwestern so there are subtle little differences but you know 90% of the time they'll vote as a block basically and which one do you like Trump's chances in the best of those three based on your modeling I I think Pennsylvania I mean you know um we've just seen that consistently poll as a toss up you know Harris plus one uh Trump plus one whereas Harris has been ahead recently in most polls of Michigan Wisconsin if you had to pick one state that you could know the exact results for and forecast based on that to 2024 would it be Pennsylvania is that the one that you would want to have the data for yeah look if all you tell me is Harris went Pennsylvania or Trump went Pennsylvania I could you know predict with 90 some per accuracy who's going wi the Electoral College that's that's it's a lot of electoral votes it's a very demog demographically representative State you got rural areas and and a big city and suburbs Etc decent sized black population so that's that's the biggest circle on the map okay you have it almost dead even I think right now 5050 in your forecast Trump was ahead K's got a small lead right now now is it fair to say that based on what we've seen from the polls so far and my suspicion is that they're waiting to give us a lot of polls after Labor Day and so we're going to get a an inflection of new data then but is it fair to say that we haven't seen any kind of real substantial KLA Harris convention bounce as would typically occur historic or are the convention bounces more of something that isn't as much of a function anymore because so many people have already made up their mind yeah between the 24/7 cycle and partisanship they're less profound than they used to be I mean you know polls are showing we're showing about a one and a half or two point bounce so far you're right by the way clay that like the timing is weird we have Labor Day coming up we had RFK I'm sure some people tossed out their polls because they tested RFK he won't officially be a candidate and at least some states um look if you had an election today then Harris would be the favorite not a big favorite we have all seen elections where the polls are are off by quite a bit um but our model thinks that when you get to November it will tighten up again um look I think Trump has not been on his aame recently but you have a debate you have other things to shake it up and learn from it's a bit like if you have the backup quarterback come in he's like a Scrambler and not like a downfield passer and you need some adjustment period but um but look we know that American elections are are very close um we know also that if the popular vote is a tie then probably Republicans win so they have a couple of that's a big Ace in the Hole if we we're talking about strategy down the road all right last question for you I'd encourage you to check out the book I read it I really enjoyed it on the edge signal in the noise also a really good read if you're looking for something and you're a data probabilistic guy who is more rational sports fans or political junkies who is a more rational group sports fans by far right I mean you kind of see a field goal like don't off the crossbar or or you know a sharply hit baseball that gets caught by the shortstop uh yeah there's not this grievance I mean there is some you know I'm kind of a New York Knicks fan now so you see some grievance of fans but I think sports fans tend to have a a sense of humor that is often lacking in the political sphere also sports fans are constantly willing to reexamine their priors when it comes to a coach when it comes to a player sports fans innately Embrace data right I mean if you got Aaron judge hitting 51 home runs in New York City uh and you didn't think he was going to have a good year I mean the data comes out and you have to adjust it seems to me that sports fans are by the way crazy but more rational than political uh die hards yeah to be confronted with a reality check 162 times a year in Major League Baseball or 17 times a year in the NFL instead of once every four years it just kind of makes you adjust to reality a lot more rapidly Nate I appreciate the time again the book on the edge good luck with it uh I appreciate you giving us the time I think people will enjoy it and I'd encourage signal in the noise as well of course thank you clay I got lots of good things to say you almost killed them all by saying you're voting for KLA by the way uh but I appreciate the time thanks man Nate silver super smart guy his forecast fun to watch and look at among many other outlets out there uh I find that he is rational in a way that few people are very often rational by the way we'll take some of your calls 800 282 2882 uh we're going to be joined by Jim Jordan to talk about this big Facebook story that much of the media is ignoring uh that letter from Mark Zuckerberg was addressed directly to Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio we'll talk with him next but I want to tell you got a lot of hunters out there in this office audience if you're one of them let me tell you about Bear Creek Arsenal they've been in the business for more than two decades manufacturing great products at an incredible value Buck loves the company has a ton of their firearms you've heard him talk 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