Must Own Sleepers - 2024 Fantasy Football

Intro today we're breaking down everybody's favorite fantasy football topic sleepers usually every year I drop this video on my birthday I will be 26 next week unfortunately I cannot wait until September 4th to drop it because most of you guys will have already had your fantasy draft so I'm dropping it a couple of days early to celebrate we're going to break down my top five sleepers and we're going to go through what makes the best sleeper as well as some of the biggest hits in last year's video so What Makes a Good Sleeper? let's start with the running back position what makes a sleeper running back you guys can see the highest win rate running backs over the last four years of course Kiren Williams a huge name last year we also had rahee moer Devon Anan in years past we've seen James Robinson so on and so forth four running backs the archetypes that we're looking for with our sleepers are rookies of course James Robinson Devon aan good examples of that handcuffs which we saw from Mike Davis in 2020 Christian mcaffry goes down Mike Davis wins people leagues pass catchers we also saw JD mckisic and McKinnon have really really strong Seasons primarily just catching passes in PPR formats and we also saw ambiguous backfields meaning we don't know who the starter is we don't know how the backfield split is going to look that was Kiren Williams last year that was Raheem moer last year and James Connor in 2021 and obviously if anybody fits multiple of these categories like Devon Anan for example pass catcher ambiguous backfield and was a rookie running back the more the marrier so those are the kind of parameters we're looking at for sleeper running backs for sleeper wide receivers we want to Target primarily rookies or young wide receivers you guys can see pukaa Justin Jefferson Brandon auk tank Dell Jaden Reed St Brown all those guys hit big time as rookies in the past couple of years we also do see that slot receivers ended up being very very solid hits in the late rounds like Hunter Renfro Tyler Lockett and jacobe Myers twice sometimes you get the odd post type sleeper like a Mike Williams for example who because he's been injured or whatever the case is he falls out of favor even though he projects pretty solid if your sleeper wide receiver fits Dontayvion Wicks one of those categories they are probably good bets as well now let's get into my top five sleepers in 2024 fantasy football Davian Wix is number five on the list we're going to go in descending order here Davian Wix is a part of the murky ambiguous Green Bay Packers wide receiver core that plus politics and religion are what you're never supposed to talk about on first dates my attitude towards this core hasn't really changed all that much from earlier in the offseason I am not sure of anything here so what I love doing because I know Jordan love is good because I know that this team projects for n and a half wins this year and a top 12 scoring offense I'm just going to take the cheapest option and that's davien Wicks this guy had an incredible run to end the year he was hyper efficient on his targets posting one of the best first downs per route run of any rookie wide receiver and according to Ryan Heath of fantasy points it is one of the most predictive statistics that you can rank highly in and as you can see there Davian Wicks on very limited volume was very very good in first downs per route also 2.2 yards per row run as a rookie last year 20% Target rate top 24 in PFF receiving grade and Ninth best PFF receiving grade from week 11 on the peripherals are there for davien wicks he looks like a good player and he had good tape in college too the only reason he wasn't more productive is because he had a down senior season and that's why he fell to day three he did have a very good reason for not being as productive as a senior he was literally injured in a shooting that killed multiple of his teammates so that is partially wise Prospect profile was a little bit murky in November of 2022 he was actually shot and injured in a shooting that occurred on campus in preseason action he has played one total snap and he has a 65 yard touchdown to show for it so this is a dude that has fought through some adversity separated at high level according to Matt harman's reception perception last year you can see ranking very solid for a day three wide receiver this is a wide receiver core with no Alpha right now we don't know if Jaden Reed's the number one Christian Watson's the number one Romeo dos is the number one or if on Tavian Wix is the number one to me Wix profiles as the X receiver profiles as the best option on the outside to command the targets two run routes at a high level Matt Haron when he ched him actually Compares him here to Nico Collins as a young player and of course we saw what Nico Collins was able to do in his breakout season last year I have him straight up ranked over Romeo dos I do believe he will be on the field very very often just based on every time he gets on the field he makes plays and that is how you impress your coaches and show them that you deserve to be on the field very often and of course if you do want all of our rankings our tiers overall ranking super Flex a cheat sheet to use during your draft risk ratings game logs fantasy news Track by Team all of that stuff is in our draft guide and if you guys want to dominate your buffoon League mates you probably want to hit the link Down Below in the pin comment or in the description you sign up on Underdog use promo code fsse deposit a minimum of $10 you get this free Travis Kelce pick them higher or lower half a total yard for week one and you get our draft guide totally for free that'll be sent to you in your email box within 24 hours can't play Underdog where you live you already have an account you can also get it over on flock fantasy.com promo code FSE over there as well both of those link Down Below in the description so Rico dle is Rico Dowdle my number four sleeper for 2024 Fantasy Football let's head to Dallas because with Rico D and the and the backfield in Dallas there there is a whole lot of washed up running backs you got Ezekiel Elliott Dalvin cook who just recently signed there both of those guys are completely washed I think we all know that I have to plug my nose and draft Ezekiel Elliott on under dog sometimes because I think he's actually half decent in bestas ball but I think it's quite clear that he is no longer the same player despite what a dominant player he was in his prime Rico dowle on the other hand is entering year five 5'1 213 PBS ran a 454 at the combine so he's got some explosiveness looked pretty good last year he was a top 10 running back in yards created per touch a top 17 running back in EPA it's a total projection and nobody talking about Rico D can pretend they know if he's good or not but at the same time if he is good the Cowboys depth char is so wide open for the taking and my favorite part about D is that I think you will know right away whether or not he's going to be a hit in fantasy I think by week two week three we're going to know what his workload is we're going to know what his usage looks like we're going to know if the talent is there we're going to know if Ezekiel Elliott is going to be a pest for him and snipe him on the goal line and things of that nature the Cowboys LED all NFL teams in points per game last year they LED all NFL teams in overall first downs last year Rico dle could be an absolute League winner if he's a great running back or he could maybe just be like a jayen Warren to Ezekiel Elliot's Nai Harris which will also be a huge value late in drafts also sounds like Mike McCarthy is penciling him in for the third down roll according to his comments the other day talking about how great he has been as a pass protector and how he can play on all three Downs as a receiving back and we did see spurts of that when he was playing alongside Tony Pard last year so with Rico D again I know it's kind of gross we don't know if this guy's any good or not but in the 12th 13th round where you have to draft this guy you can draft him and if he stinks after two or three weeks probably drop him for some of the hot waiver names that we usually see at the beginning of the season so my number three sleeper of 2024 fantasy football is jayen McMillan wide receiver Jalen McMillan of my Tampa Bay Buccaneers 213th overall ADP so you're getting this guy with the absolute last pick in your draft I picked him up on waivers in my home league in our draft guide I track all of the offseason news by team and I sort it and I kind of piece through and kind of put things together of who's getting the hype who's getting good usage stuff 11 total news blurbs that are notable have come out of the Tampa Bay bucket training camp seven of them have been about jayen McMillan so that is how much Buzz that this guy is getting whether it's his route running his separation ability his versatility to play X his versatility to play slot Z wide receiver it doesn't matter Todd BS the coaching staff Liam con Baker Mayfield Mike Evans whoever gets in front of a microphone talks about how good Jaylen McMillan is and it is a massive massive deal in my opinion because as coache index has talked about Todd Bulls is very very reliable when it comes to usage and how players going to be deployed in my time as a Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan I have never ever heard a drum beat so loud for One Singular player especially a rookie and he has absolutely looked apart so far this preseason in the preseason games he's played he has commanded 37.5% targets per route run rate and a 3.56 yards per route run Jacob Gibbs this tweet that I'm referencing here he actually cut up all of his routes and you can see this dude is just a Smooth Operator not only am I confident he will be out there running routes as the number three wide receiver as soon as week one but Chris Godwin has not been the same player the last couple of years since his ACL tear back in 2021 he hasn't really look the same he hasn't been the same level of explosiveness and I would not be shocked at all if Jaylen McMillan was the number two wide receiver behind Mike Evans for the rest of the season as the season goes along as he gets his sea legs under him my comp for him coming out of the University of Washington was Jackson Smith and jiga I had him ranked as a top 11 receiver in the draft he was banged up his final year at Washington but in 2022 he and Romo dun were neck and neck in terms of production and in 2023 when all three wide receivers for the Washington Huskies were on the field together McMillan was right there with Odun in terms of Target Cherry actually outproduced him in terms of touchdowns Jaylen McMillan has the ability to separate short areas which is going to be a factor in the red zone so for me again I know it's a little bit of a homer pick because I'm a Buccaneers fan but I really do think that Jaylen McMillan has a chance to be one of the breakout you know drop all your waiver wire type of stud guys that you get off of waiver first week or two of the season so try and avoid spending all that Fab and just take him with the last pick in your fantasy draft and see what happens hold him for the first two to three weeks of the year maybe you get a viable wide receiver three wide receiver four flex play out of it or hell maybe he's even better than that and him and Baker Mayfield develop a great chemistry so staying with a University of Ja’Lynn Polk Washington wide receiver my number two sleeper heading into 2024 fantasy football drafts is his former college teammate Jaylen pulk wide receiver of the New England Patriots 167th overall is his ADP so again very similar case to McMillan you're getting a late round rookie wide receiver both of these guys were teammates in college both of them got alfha by Romo dun he was the clear number one in that offense but here is why I love Jaylen pulk he was a complete wide receiver Prospect he didn't do anything at an elite elite level but he did everything extremely well my comp for him was Rashid rice because I think when you look at what Rashid rice did in the NFL his rookie season it was short and intermediate targets get the ball in his hands let him work after the catch get him on Slants get him on drags get him on curl routes get the ball in his hands basically is what you want to do with a guy like Jaylen pul I guess a big part of why I like Jaylen pulk is situation meeting the kind of talent that I saw from him on display in college because I love Drake may you guys know this I think Drake May is going to be a superstar level quarterback I have loved what I've seen from him so far in the preseason I think before long jacobe brasset will be on the bench and Drake May will be starting games at quarterback for the New England Patriots and both of these guys have made some nice plays in preseason so far together I think Drake May and Jaylen pulk will be a connection that is going to be something that could win people leagues long term and even in the short term provide some good PPR value there are no proven Targets in this offense de Mario Douglas not really proven uh Javon Baker who they also drafted in the fourth round not proven they have KJ Osborne as their veteran presence uh Kendrick Bourne coming off of a Toren ACL there are no proven Targets in this offense I believe the 37th overall pick in the NFL draft Jaylen pulk will be number one in terms of pecking order of routes in terms of targets I believe he has a chance to be the number one receiver here and especially with the way that Drake May plays quarterback he led all NCAA quarterbacks in 2022 throwing over the middle of the field I think Jaylen PK's best deployment will be as a slot receiver or at least in a short to intermediate role and I think him and Drake may can connect for a lot of PPR Targets in that area of the field it is an excellent fit and I think Jaylen pul has a chance really to be kind of of this year's Jaden Reed this year's rashed rice this year's tank Dell this rookie wide receiver who kind of got overlooked a little bit who's going in the double digit rounds because we don't really feel great about the offense but all of those guys had one thing in common and that was opportunity in front of them Rashid rice was in an unproven wide receiver core tank Dell unproven wide receiver core Jane Reed unproven wide receiver core I think Jaylen pul comes in right away and commands the most Targets in the New England Patriots offense especially once Drake May is starting at quarterback so moving into my final sleeper my number one sleeper for 2024 fantasy football this year I did hit big on a couple of sleepers last year Raheem moer Devon aan Z flowers Sam laap Porto were all in that video last year of course I put Sky Moore on the thumbnail because I'm a complete buffoon but my number one sleeper this year is JK Dobbins JK Dobbins running back of the Los Angeles Chargers ADP right now of 155th overall so you're talking 12 13th round pick right now I'm not even going to give the fake doctors in the comment section the satisfaction of trying to educate me on Achilles tears for running backs because I am aware of the data it is not good left acl multi- ligament contact tear to his knee three years ago and now a torn Achilles that he is coming off of JK Dobbins has been very injury-prone to this point in his career comes back last year from two years removed from the ACL tear has 11.7 PPR points in the first half of week one and then he blows his Achilles I don't know how unlucky you can get but apparently that is just the JK Dobbins life these excerpts have been taken from Dr Jesse Morris's website injury experts highly recommend that you guys go check that out but basically what he outlines here is that similar to Tariq Cohen cam Acres James Robinson Deontay Foreman Justice Hill Marlin Mack Caleb Huntley and Isaiah crell that is the list of running backs that have suffered torn Achilles in the last uh you know seven years or so none of them really have come back to form outside of Deontay Foreman in limited roles when he's gotten opportunities he's looked good but cam acres and James Robinson some of these guys were really highly thought of in the fantasy community and they just completely fell out of favor after this injury but here is why I like JK Dobbin still because I I really understand all of the medical risk that we have here but this is why I'm okay with it number one he's 25 years old he is a 9.5 relative Athletic score athlete coming out of college he is a really really good athlete that bodess well for his ability to rehab from injuries number two he is far cheaper than cam Acres was coming off of his injury he is far cheaper than James Robinson was coming off of his injury those guys were top five top six round picks that you had to spend JK Dobbins is going way after that 12th 13th 14th round in most people's leagues and then finally if and it's a big if he can return to his pre-injury form we know he's a very good running back we've already seen it let's check the boxes with JK Dobbins JK Dobbins in his career averages 5.8 yards per carry he has 43.4% Miss tackles Force rate in the last full season that he played in 2022 and again he was coming off of a torn ACL one-year removed from multi- ligament ACL surgery and he missed a he forced a Miss tackle on 43% of his touches he is back with Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator who he basically did most of that damage with when he was with the Ravens he has beaten out Gus Edwards not once but twice for the starting job so if his only competition in the back field is Gus Edwards He's already beaten this guy out before Gus Edwards I might remind you is also 29 years old and has a lengthy injury history as well including an offseason cleanup procedure for the Toren ACL he suffered two years ago Justin Herbert is an elite NFL quarterback we all know that this offense is probably going to be pretty good because they have Justin Herbert this team wants to run the football they drafted Joe alt instead of Malik Neighbors at number five overall to bolster their offensive line making it one of the best run blocking lines in the NFL he is the best receiving back also on this roster and we know Justin Herbert has gravitated towards throwing his uh running backs the football of course he had Austin Eckler for that but it is still a tendency nonetheless now let's check some timeline boxes because in addition to all that stuff again I'm okay stomaching the injury I think that the upside if he is healthy is really good now let's see if this all adds up kind of chronologically here on April 29th JK Dobbins came out and he said he was 100% healthy I scream to draft this guy in beste ball I get flamed on Twitter and nobody listened June 23rd Daniel Jeremiah on the move the sticks podcast Daniel Jeremiah the voice of chargers radio says if you guys are in a fantasy draft draft JK Dobbins I again go to Twitter get flamed for saying that you should draft JK Dobbins and maybe some people listen to me maybe they didn't July 25th he is fully practicing in training camp no injury concern whatsoever people really started paying attention and moving him up the ranks at that point in time July 30th the pads come on Dobbins is taking first team reps at training camp over Gus Edwards over kamani Vidal and Vidal is literally sixth on the depth chart entering Camp all preseason Dobbins hasn't played he's been rested with the starters sixth round pick kamani Vidal barely made the roster and Gus Edwards like I said was announced that he underwent a cleanup surgery to his knee this off season so I don't know about you but all signs point Honorable Mentions to take the risk on JK Dobbins here because what is the worst that can happen realistically you draft JK Dobbins in the 13th round he sucks he gets injured again whatever the case is that is the downside risk you drop him you turn the waiver wire and you go on your Merry way you pick up you know whatever running back pops off in week two or week three and you want to drop JK Dobbins for him that is the downside risk with JK Dobbins you are getting him at a point where it is all upside and no floor you do not have to be worried about what happens if he misses because 13th round picks miss all all the time I can think of the guys that I've drafted in the 13th round the last couple of years and it is not very good hit rates in that area of the draft so with JK Dobbins I have a legitimate top 20 upside running back here if things break right for him in the late rounds for an elite rushing offense pass catching upside for a quarterback who's one of the best 5 to 10 on the planet and can make this offense very good again some honorable mentions just because I didn't talk about tight ends and quarterbacks in this video some sleeper tight ends that I like Ben Sate jatavian Sanders the two rookie tight ends I do think have a chance to be you know waiver ads at some point this year also like Greg dolc getting back healthy for the Broncos and Tucker craft is definitely my favorite sleeper tight end tight end of the Green Bay Packers been making a lot of noise in Camp only going low because Luke Musgrave is going ahead of him sleeper quarterbacks again the the guys that I talked about last year all ended up being pretty good I talked about Sam how I talked about uh Anthony Richardson who was good for a couple of games and I talked about Brock pie who was the best of them all this year the formula is pretty simple if you want a pocket passer get a guy with good weapons Matthew Stafford Aaron Rogers those type of guys are good late round sleeper quarterbacks to go after if you want a guy that can run you could go after DeShaun Watson who of course has been a top five fantasy quarterback multiple times could go after Drake May and you could go after B Nick so hopefully you guys enjoyed this video If You did leave a like down below subscribe to the channel if you are new around here if you want our draft guide like I said hit the link Down Below in the description and in the pin comment you can get our rankings overall super Flex quarterback running back wide receiver tight end all of our tiers uh 2023 fantasy points per game so you can see how they performed last year our contextualized game log series our risk ratings our fantasy news updates everything in the draft guide to help you guys take down your buffoon League mates hit the link down below sign up on Underdog fantasy deposit 10 bucks use code FSE draft guides in your inbox within 24 hours it is that simple hit the link down below to get started if you can't play on Underdog or you already have an account check out flock fantasy.com tons of bonus content over there use the promo code fsse for 7 days for free 30% off and 6 months for free when you sign up annually over there so with that being said peace out we'll talk to you soon