5 MUST DRAFT Breakouts in 2024 Fantasy Football

Intro breakout candidates are a staple of fantasy football today I'm breaking down the five biggest breakout candidates in the mid rounds for fantasy football drafts if you guys got a draft coming up this weekend hit the like down below hit the Subscribe button if you guys want more fantasy football content today we're going to break down my top five breakout candidates Danny broke his down earlier in the week so make sure you check those out we're going to use a little bit of a blueprint to determine which guys are good breakout candidates Breakout Candidate Finder on the screen right now you guys can see the players since 2020 who had double their expected win rate of 8.33% or more because they had monster monster Seasons you can see Cooper Cup in 2021 Andrews in 2021 Josh Jacobs in 2022 we are looking for these type of Seasons with the players that we are talking about today I also have a letter beside each of their names that kind of means a different thing for why they fell in drafts and why they ended up breaking out you can see that there is an S beside a lot of people's names and I feel like the reason for a lot of these breakout candidates was because their talent outweighed their situation and their situational factors were the thing that caused them to fall in drafts for Stefon Diggs in 2020 we saw his situation carry his ADP down because we didn't know how good Josh Allen was Mike Evans last year lost Tom Brady Patrick Mahomes in 2022 lost Tyreek Hill Cooper cup had Robert Woods and a new quarterback with Matthew Stafford we didn't know who they would favor Josh Jacobs had Devonte Adams coming into his offensive situation that would help move the offense but we did have question marks about his own ability and then some of these guys were just breakout young players you have uh Darren Waller who was a breakout candidate that year you have T.J Hawkinson you have Debo Samuel who was coming off a lot of injuries you have Jamar Chase and of course you have Josh Allen who had that breakout season in 2020 we are going to use the blueprints of that kind of situational factors weighing these guys down and potential question marks of their talent as young players to determine our top five breakout Xavier Worthy candidates so let's start with my number five breakout candidate we're going to go from 5 to one in ascending order as we always do Xavier worthy wide receiver of the Kansas City Chiefs ADP of 85 overall he is a seventh round pick across home League platforms right now and of course our FSC rankings versus home League sites are available in our draft guide which you can get for free by signing up on Underdog with promo code fsse sign up with 10 bucks get the draft guide into your email inbox within 24 hours the bull case for Xavier Worthy is really easy with Xavier worthy he plays with Patrick Mahomes he's in the Kansas City Chiefs offense which we project to be a top five scoring unit and a big bounceback candidate this year and they've also been top five in pass rate overe expected the last six years um that Patrick Mahomes has been in the league he is a highquality prospect I think a lot of people look at Xavier worthy and think he was just this fast guy who just produced um suboptimally like John Ross coming out of college he produced 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns as an 18-year-old true freshman at the University of Texas in the Big 12 that is a 100th percentile Dominator rating Target share per campus to canton's database for a freshman wide receiver so we're talking about a guy who is a legit legit Prospect not just fast his Prospect comparisons are below Xavier worthy compares favorably to Maris Brown Jaylen waddle and Jordan Addison which were very common comps for him on film as well the other Targets in Kansas City would also be one of people's major concerns for Xavier worthy because they have Travis Kelce because they have rasid rice they also signed Maris Brown in free agency and Isaiah Pacho should be a big part of the offense on the ground all of those guys Maris Brown operate in the short areas of the field Rashid rice is a yards after the catch guy slant routes drag routes things of that nature Travis Kelsey of course is older he is going to be a chain mover as well and Isaiah Pacho is a running back so he's obviously going to move the offense on the ground Maris Brown is also slated to miss the first couple games of the season with a shoulder injury that he suffered in the preseason and Xavier worthy in the preseason has looked absolutely outstanding posting 3.26 yards per route run in the short time that we've seen him and a 77.9 PFF receiving grade so far Sam Sherman tweeted this out the other day but rookie wide receivers who have earned Targets in the preseason have actually been relatively predictive of future fantasy success think of guys like pukaa and tank Dell last year were actually good at commanding Targets in the preseason and that carried over to the regular season Xavier worthy ranks fourth on that list he's run 19 routes and he's commanded a Target on 32% of those Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes now have the fastest wide receiver in the NFL I don't think fantasy football should be hard to be honest and when you have the fastest wide receiver in the NFL it opens up the offense for everybody else making this offense one of the best in the NFL just draft Xavier worthy in round seven to eight if he is on the board I promise you if this guy was six foot 190 PBS the Kansas City Chiefs would have never had the opportunity to actually draft him because he would have went in the top 10 of the NFL draft with his speed and with his production I get that he's small I get that he looks like he's a little bit frail but this is the type of offense that I trust to use Xavier worthy properly use him down field take advantage of his speed get him on the field and design touches and he is an underrated route Runner as well he was one of my favorite prospects in the NFL draft and I think he has a monster rookie season ahead of him so next we get into my number four breakout candidate which is z flowers wide Zay Flowers receiver of the Baltimore Ravens ADP of 51 overall a fifth round pick such an underrated rookie season because of what pukaa did because of what Rashid rice did because of what tank Dell did it kind of gets swept under the rug how good Z flowers was as a rookie 12.9 PPR points per game finishes a top 36 option in points per game that was just as good as Garrett Wilson's rookie season just as good as Chris's rookie season he had a thousand yards six touchdowns and he left some plays on the field as well I think all of us remember the play that Odell Beckham got called for holding on the Block where he had like a 75 yard touchdown that would have inflated his numbers to a top 24 season in points per game he had a 75.2 PFF receiving grade as a rookie a 24.4% Target share he's Tethered to a top offense the Baltimore Ravens are currently projected for the fifth most points in the NFL per ESPN's Mike Clay there is still room for them to throw the ball more this year as well they only threw the ball 494 times in 2023 which was 31st in the NFL what is stopping Z flowers really from having a top 12 top 15 season this year his rookie season reminds me a lot of what Jaylen waddle did as a rookie where it was overshadowed by Jamar chase people didn't really think Jaylen Wadd was going to be this great breakout candidate he was going in the fourth fifth round and then he eventually had a monster second season and finished as a top 12 guy there is no competition for targets with Z flowers like there was with Tyreek Hill coming in for Jaylen wad Mark Andrews staying healthy would only benefit the offense so I guess technically he is the number one there but I actually believe that Z flowers can out Target him and outproduce him this year and again if Andrew stays healthy that is just good for the passing offense as well and they bring in a major upgrade at running back with derck Henry who of course is going to help move the offense too so you look at Z FL you look at the rookie season that he had and as a rookie Matt Harman charted him in reception perception he achieved an 85% success rate against Zone coverage the NFL primarily defends uh offenses with Zone coverage so Z flowers being able to beat Zone coverage at that level is an extremely bullish Mark for his future prospects in the NFL you can see on the Deep routes too he was performing at a really high level basically green across the board except for C routes and again that 85% 90th percentile Mark against Zone coverage is extremely high against Zone coverage only Brandon auk was better last year he was better than Devonte Adams he was better than Justin Jefferson he was better than Tyreek Hill and Aman Ross Brown at beating Zone coverage that is extremely extremely promising for a rookie wide receiver to be performing amongst the elite wide receivers in the NFL at beating the most popular coverage that defensive coordinators are going to throw at you again Z flowers near the four five turn where he's going reminds me so much of Jaylen wad after his rookie season and Jaylen WD was a top 12 wide receiver competing for targets with Tyreek Hill on the same field Z flowers has a monster monster ceiling this year if Lamar Jackson plays at just as good of a level as he's always played in the NFL and this offense passes the ball a little bit more Z flowers legitimately has top five upside this year I feel really really good about drafting him in Kyle Pitts the early fifth round in the late fourth round where he currently goes let's move on to my number three breakout candidate and that is Kyle pittz tight end of the Atlanta Falcons ADP 66th overall he is a sixth round pick and I've seen him fall beyond that point in a lot of people's drafts now I know everybody is getting ready to yell at me right away because nobody likes Kyle pittz Kyle Pitts is such a contentious topic that I guarantee there is a lot of comments Down Below on this video saying that Kyle Pitts will not break out this year but I promise you if you hear me out on this first I can probably convince you that Kyle pittz is in for a great year let's go through the timeline in depth of Kyle Pitt's career so far so let's start with a top five NFL draft pick that's what he was he was an elite tight end Prospect extremely athletic very productive in college at 21 years old he came into the NFL as a rookie with a washed up quarterback like Matt Ryan who we saw just the next year in Indianapolis looked terrible he had 1,026 yards 15.1 yards per reception a top 12 finish in points per game in fantasy and he ranked top five in both PFF receiving grade at the tight end position and yards per route run with 82.3 PFF receiving grade 2.02 yards per route run those are Elite numbers especially for a 21-year-old rookie in 2022 Marcus Mariota comes in at quarterback not good not a good quarterback less than 150 yards he threw for in seven of the 10 games that Kyle pittz played and then at the end of the season Kyle Pitts suffers a knee injury had to undergo surgery for it it's basically a Lost season but even in that Lost season with Marcus Mariota you can glean a lot of positives from what Kyle pittz did he led all tight ends with 34.3% targets per route run rate on the same field as Drake London who had a 30% Target share as well second in overall Target share at the tight end position with 27.3% and he was first in air yard share and deep targets at the tight end position as well so again even in that Lost season in 2022 you can take away a lot of good from Kyle pittz in 2023 again he leads all tight ends and air yards for the second straight year average upth the target he was uh number one at the tight end position deep targets again number one at the position and that resulted in what he was tight end 16 in PPR points per game because he was still banged up coming off of knee surgery and the Falcons quarterback yet again was one of the worst in the NFL Desmond Ritter ranked 38 out of 41 qualified quarterbacks in PFF passing grade with 53.2 he had 12 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in 15 games played so quarterback play has been a major problem for Kyle pittz and this team also by the way had Arthur Smith who Mis utilized Kyle pittz as a big wide receiver never used him in the Red Zone took him off the field in favor of guys like jonu Smith and meole puit everything is aligning this year for Kyle pittz to finally have the season that we all know he's capable of new offensive coordinator Zack Robinson comes from the Rams the Rams use Tyler higgy as a traditional tight end use their tight ends like they should be used and Kyle pittz is set up for that usage as well the Falcons also have ranked second lowest in pass rate overe expected since Kyle Pitts entered the league in 2021 the Rams conversely ranked 10th highest in pass rate OV expected Kirk Cousins comes in at quarterback he has average 26 63 passing yards per game over his career that is 90 to 100 passing yards per game more than the 2022 Falcons and the 2023 Falcons and even if KT cousins is not the same because he's coming off in Achilles they drafted Michael pennix as a top 10 overall draft pick Michael pennix LED all college quarterbacks in passing yards last year he led all college quarterbacks in deep pass attempts last year so he is used to throwing the ball he is used to throwing it downfield this is a philosophical change in Atlanta this will not be the Arthur Smith Falcons anymore and if if you've been in on Kyle Pitts and he's burned you well he is about to burn you for a different reason because if you're not in on Kyle pittz this year I'm telling you all the stars are aligning for him to finally have the season that we expected if we wiped all of your memories clean and you didn't know anything about Kyle pittz after his rookie season and I told you he was about to be the number two in an offense that really only has two Targets Drake London and Kyle pittz and of course bejon out of the backfield their number two receiver is Darnell Mooney their number three receiver is I don't even know who like I literally can't even name their number three Wide Receiver right now it's probably um Ray Ray McLoud like it's it's bad in Atlanta right now Kyle pittz is going to be attached to potentially a top 12 top 15 passing offense even potentially better than that would you draft him knowing that the volume is going to be there finally the quarterback play is going to be there finally and we saw this dude at 21 years old have a 10,00 yard season top five yards per route run top five PFF uh receiving grade at the tight end position and also too when you're deciding between Kyle pittz and Dalton K Kade remember that at 21 years old Kyle Pitts had a thousand yards in the NFL and at 21 years old Dalton King Kade had 15 yards at Utah in college as a junior so the difference between these guys is absolutely insurmountable for Dalton King Kate dton King Kate is older than Kyle pittz he's a full year older than Kyle pittz and Kyle pittz has been in the NFL for three NFL seasons and is basically going into a contract year this year I think Pitts is finally going to have the season that we all know he's been capable of and I'm very much expecting him to have that season so don't be scared of Kyle pittz in the fifth sixth round you're getting a nice discount on the the fact that he's burned people in years past if you want an elite tight end people get mad at me for using that word for Kyle pittz but I do believe he has elite elite upside this year and his floor should be a lot higher because of the pass volume Javonte Williams because of the quarterback play number two breakout candidate for me on the list is javante Williams currently ADP of 95 overall going off the board in the eighth round you want pieces of this Denver Broncos backfield Shawn pton had the Broncos running backs rb6 in overall fantasy points last year I know it was spread out between javante between Jalil McLaughlin and between samaj perine last year but my bet is especially at this price tag I am super in on javante Williams regaining his job let's go through the timeline of events with gavon Williams May 13th head coach Shawn pton says we will go by what we see when talking about how the running back core would shake out then we get to July 20th an outlandish Denver Broncos beat reporter drops a hammer on Javon Williams and says that he might be on the roster bubble if you read the article javante Williams was never on the roster bubble this was simply a beat reporter speculating that because he was inefficient in 2023 the team might move on from him and that is completely outlandish there was absolutely no basis for that take the beat reporter basically just looked at his stats last year and said he might be on the bubble because he wasn't good last year and we all knew that as fantasy players we knew that gavon Williams wasn't the same player onee removed from a multi- ligament ACL tear then we get to July 24th just a couple days later gavon Williams gets praised by head coach Shawn pton because he sheded 11 pounds of his body weight getting back to the side guys that he played at the University of North Carolina and apparently Shawn Payton basically challenged him can you be this back this back that I saw at UNC who was absolutely dominant who basically broke the PFF record in Breaking tackles and making people Miss he told him get back to this size this is the running back I want to have and javante Williams was up for the challenge so he sheded the weight August 1st javante Williams looks like a completely different player according to head coach Shawn pyton and in the preseason he has been the lead back he has been the type of guy he looks a lot better as well jav Williams in week one of the preseason played nine of the total 12 snaps only coming off the field in Long down and distance situations in week two of the preseason javante Williams took most of the first two drives and only came off the field in Long down and distance situations as well so Jalil mclaughin he is going to be involved in this offense s perine was cut a few days ago so we don't have to worry about him audri ese the fifth round rookie that they drafted is javante Williams is backup by all indications first off let me address this why do I care Javon Williams plays for the bronos go they're not expected to be a great offense again I care because Shawn pton is a running back kingmaker and javante Williams before his ACL te was a very good running back he was a great breakout candidate that I was all in on coming into the 2022 season he had a multi- ligament ACL surgery it completely wiped his 2022 year and his 2023 year as we know from guys like JK Dobbins who have suffered similar injuries last year one year removed from that injury he played all of the games he had 275 opportunities 58 targets 20 117 carries he was number 15 in the NFL at running back and waited opportunity share so we know that Shawn pyton is capable of giving this guy a big workload he was rb1 18 and expected fantasy points per game he just underperformed he wasn't the same guy he wasn't healthy apparently he was overweight because of the injury he only scored five touchdowns and he ranked number 143 in EPA among running backs he looks a lot more spry this preseason he is in a contract year I've been very impressed with what I've seen from Javonte Williams and Bo Knicks the quarterback that comes in has also looked really good he was a first round pick and the knock on B Knicks coming out was that he checks the ball down too much so if he's going to throw the ball to Javon Williams in the running backs I feel very good that gavon Williams can return a top 12 season this year and you are not drafting him as if he has that type of upside you are drafting him as if he is a running back in an ambiguous backfield after the RB Dead Zone and it reminds me a lot to be honest of Leonard forette and ra Andre Stevenson a couple of years ago where we saw those guys spike in efficiency because they had three down workloads and they were attached to offenses that were better than people thought s perine's gone we don't have to worry about him Julio mlin is 180 pounds he is not going to command a big time workload he'll probably mix in 30 40% of the snaps at most Javonte Williams is going to be the goal line back gavon Williams can run routes can catch passes and will get the majority of the carries at his size with his pedigree Broncos quietly had the fourth highest uh ranked offensive line in run blocking last year too so it is a good offensive line to run behind this this reminds me a lot of 2022 Josh Jacobs 2022 my sanders where in a contract year we saw that monster breakout season that we've been finally waiting for in our flock League I drafted Devon Anan in the second round for my hero RB didn't draft another running back until round eight where I took Javonte Williams and I feel really really good about his projection this year at the price tag that you're getting it now we finally get to my Malik Nabers number one breakout candidate it is Malik neighbors wide receiver of the New York Giants currently going off the board 38th overall just at the start of the fourth round in home League ADP let's talk about narrative dragging somebody down everybody knows why Malik neighbors is not going higher it's because the Giants stink right Daniel Jones sucks the Giants suck but literally just watch Malik Neighbors play honestly like go back to his college tape go back to his preseason games this kid is a superstar you can tell it easily it's clear as day in my opinion that you watch this guy play and he is going to be a superstar receiver in the NFL he had a pristine Prospect profile the second best Prospect in the FSC Prospect model since the year 2016 posting a perfect Prospect profile in my opinion when you talk about drawing up a prospect in a lap you want an early declar who gets better every single year he checks that box you want a guy who had a monster breakout season as a junior he checks that box you want a guy with Elite athleticism who played in a power five conference particularly in the SEC Malik neighbors checks literally every single box 89 catches 1568 yards 14 touchdowns in the SEC last year on the same field with Brian Thomas Jr who the Jacksonville Jaguars also selected in the first round and he commanded a 30% Target share LED all wide receivers in PFF receiving grade in the NCAA last year with a 93.1 PFF receiving grade LED all power five wide receivers with 3.64 yards per R run according to our Prospect model he is as good if not better than Jamar Chase as a prospect he just happened to go to a worse situation he is already making absurd catches in preseason games I don't know if you guys have been watching but he's moss and dudes he's constantly open literally every single play the Giants literally unretired a Pro Football Hall of Famer number so that Malik neighbors could wear number one that does not happen unless you already know that this kid's going to be a superstar all the beat reporters are saying his contract because he's a rookie is going to look like the steel of the NFL the elephant in the room I know is that the Giants stink the Giants are bad the Daniel Jones is a terrible quarterback they are currently projected for the 32nd most points in the NFL and if you guys are doing the math at home there's only 32 teams so they are projected to be one of the worst offenses in the league here's why I'm optimistic I don't actually think they will be one of the worst offenses in the league they might be a bad team and only win five six seven games but the 2022 New York Giants just two years ago were 16th in points per game 12th in EPA per dropback 18th in total yards Brian deall won Coach of the Year Daniel Jones led the NFL an adjusted completion percentage so if there's anything he can do he can get Malik neighbors the ball accurately the leading Target earner of the team was their running back saquan Barkley with 76 targets they had Darius Slayton Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins as their number one two and three receivers with Malik neighbors Jaylen hayatt and wand Del Robinson that bumps all of those guys down the pecking order Isaiah Hodgins didn't even make the roster Darius Slayton is the wide receiver four on the Giants right now with good coaching very good coaching like I said he won coach of the year two years ago a talent injection at all three starting wide receiver spots and an absolute Alpha with Malik neighbors who comes in think about the biggest surprise teams last year the biggest surprise teams according to Vegas projections were the Rams the Buccaneers the Colts and the Texans right all of these teams were expected to be really bad but why weren't they bad if you look at it Shawn McVey he's a great coach demo Ryan was tied for Coach of the Year odds with Kevin stansky Kevin stansky narrowly beats him out for that award Todd BS and Dave Canales good coaching staff Shane styken very good coaching staff they lost their starting quarterback and they still overperformed expectations well coached teams can overperform and Brian deal is a really really good coach especially when you think about the previous year what happened to the 2023 Giants they're starting quarterback Torres ACL after six games they started Tommy DeVito an undrafted free agent who lived at his mom's house as the starting quarterback of this team there was so much wrong with the 2023 Giants and I don't think that the 2024 Giants will win 10 games next year I think they will be a solid average offense like the Indianapolis Colts were and I think that Malik neighbors is a good enough player that none of the stuff will matter I think it's it's really a bet on talent and it's a bet on the Giants potentially being a little bit better than we think because they have number one receiver who's as good as he is I really believe this to be the case draft Malik Neighbors in the fourth round the risk is completely baked in at that point sharp drafters on Underdog fantasy have been taking him at the two3 turn for a reason all off season long you can get him in your home league in the fourth round because people are really worried about the New York Giants offensive situation so again those were my top five breakout candidates let me know down below what you think of them I'm sure people will have problems with Kyle Pitts and Malik neighbors but I urge you please listen to my arguments on those players before go down to the comments section and rip me a new one if you want all of our rankings if you want all of our rankings if you want our draft guide if you're trying to win your League this year our draft guide can really really help you do that we have our cheat sheets we have our rankings by position tiered rankings how they finished last year a ton of research notes in there as well like our contextualized game logs like my risk ratings like uh 2023 Fantasy Point per game scoring all the research notes from the running back agent touch Apex The League winners videos everything that you guys will need to win your fantasy football league is in our draft guide and you can get it for free by going down to the link in the pin comment signing up on Underdog fantasy using the promo code FSE when you sign up within a couple hours within a couple minutes you deposit 10 bucks and you'll get our draft guide to your email inbox that you signed up with for free so you can deposit 10 bucks with that money you can win money with the the $10 deposit that you put in on Underdog fantasy and you get our draft guide Dynasty draft guide rookie draft guide rookie film breakdowns you can see us break down Malik neighbors' film going back to his college days and you can also get our our redraft rankings Manifesto 3.0 totally for free hit the link down below to get started if you already have an underdog account definitely check out flock fantasy.com promo code FSE over there gets you everything that I just talked about a 7-Day free trial 30% off any of the packages and six months for free and a free team review when you sign up annually so definitely check that out if you are interested in uh that and also with Underdog fantasy they have a live promo right now for all users not just new users Travis Kelce higher or lower than half a total yard in the end NFL season kickoff on Thursday night less than a week from today really excited to get into the NFL season my sleeper video will be live tomorrow that is an annual Banger that you guys always love definitely stay tuned for that leave a like if you got some value from this video Hammer the like button I really appreciate the likes it pushes us out in the algorithm subscribe to the channel if you guys are new around here if this is the first time you're checking us out or you just haven't been subscribed for whatever reason we are closing in on 50,000 subscribers really really appreciate all the support you guys have showed us now with that being said peace out we'll talk to you soon

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