Will Florida State's Schedule Be A Positive, Or A Negative, To Reach The College Football Playoff?

should Florida State make the college football playoff and will [Music] they you are locked on seminal your daily podcast on the Florida state seminal part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day welcome back into locked on seminal I am your host Brian Smith thank you for tuning in once again please rate and review like And subscribe and share this podcast wherever you can Today's Show is brought to you by Game Time download the app create an account and use code locked out locked on college for your first purchase terms apply Today's show is going to discuss the likelihood of Florida State reaching the college football playoff it's an opportunity that I think is very realistic after breaking it down looking at everything not only for Florida State but we're going to go through several other teams this year Florida State schedule to figure it out so let's get started number one do they have the talent overall I've been breaking down some of that talking about the secondary how good it is might be the nation's best quarterback player at least GNA have a 50-year senior offensive line will be one of the most experienced in the nation running backs are loaded tight end rooms probably a little underrated linebacker room may need a little help D Line's much better than it has been with some of the depth they brought in Marvin Jones Etc receivers a bit inexperienced but you got Malik it's coming over from Bama you've got hakee coming up the ranks and you got guys like jakai Douglas still coming around too several other upper classmen have a shot overall the only thing that I'm worried about Beyond those things is whether or not linebacker dep is going to hold out that's one of those things it's a guess but over overall beyond that it's it's a really good roster with depth they've hit the home run with the portal again this year and they found out a little bit more about some of those freshman and sophomores in Spring ball so they they seem to be in a good spot so I'm not worried about that what I want to discuss is basically their schedule and where Florida state stands here's the in order because whether or not it's Talent or not is one thing having the right schedule is quite another and sometimes schedules just don't work out we'll talk about Florida and some other schools here in a little bit but in order August 24th in Dublin Ireland they play Georgia Tech that's obviously unique place to play an opening game his first game in college football this year that's a pretty interesting game game Boston College obviously here's the deal that is not a team that Florida State expected to struggle with last year I doubt they're going to take them lightly and it is also a Monday game so it's you get a couple extra days to prepare the next week they're off on the Saturday and then they come back at home against Memphis Seth henigan is a really good quarterback I'll talk about him in a minute but that should be a win they got Cal at home they're not very good uh the first road test true road test is SMU they've got a good quarterback uh I don't know if it's going to be enough to get over the top I'm not sure they got the weman to handle Forida State up front but I think SMU will hang around for a while at least through two and a half to three quarters and make it a game Clemson is the week after that on October 5th look there's no doubt about it Clemson's a very good program they've given Florida State a lot of problems but they did break through in Death Valley last year to beat the Tigers a Friday night game coming up and 13 days after that's they get a week off and then they play a Friday game at Duke fair enough a week or so after that eight days they go to Miami this is where it gets interesting always tough to play at Miami it's your arch rival Etc we'll see North Carolina shouldn't be as good and they they've quite honestly not achieved and they had Drake may you know they didn't achieve what they should and they had him they they lost him are they gonna be that great I'm not sold arguably the toughest game on the schedule is the week after Carolina comes to town that's a trip to South Bend to play the Irish then they get two weeks later the play Charleston Southern at home and then the Gators come to town will Billy Napier still be the head coach we'll talk about that in a minute here's how I rank the games from easiest to hardest this is just mine Charleston Southern at 12 cow at 11 bc9 or excuse me bc10 Duke the road game is ninth North Carolina eighth at home Florida 7eventh Memphis 6th Georgia Tech fifth SMU is going to be fourth I've got Clemson third Miami second Notre Dame one now somebody's immed immedately going to say FL to seventh it's because I don't think Billy will be there at the end of the year and I think a lot of the players will have mail it in if that game was in the first five games of the schedule it'd be different I think by the end of the season Billy Napier is going to be in a lot of trouble and a lot of players are going to be more concerned about where they're going to be playing next year as opposed to playing the Florida state similars prove me wrong here are a couple other interesting stats about this game that make it kind of seem like a normal schedule to a certain degree but there is a little caveat to it they only have four true road tests because of the Georgia Tech game Georgia Tech obviously is the neutral from the 18 programs in recent history say 1980 onward there's about 18 schools that can win a National Title they play four of them now that's there's a caveat good and bad there Florida is obviously down that's one of them Miami we word only knows that's kind of a a weird team Clemson is going to be looking for revenge and they're certainly a recent team that's been good but do they have the depth where they going to be in that game we'll see and then the game at Notre Dame um those four teams are the more tradition Rich programs the only other one like again Preston Stones the quarterback at SMU we'll see then Seth henigan that game with Memphis we'll talk about him in a moment those are those are some pretty interesting games six of the 12 quarterbacks are going against are returning starters but the schedule in general here's the interesting caveat they're not Elite programs but they're teams that can jump up and bite you even if you're not careful the nolles don't play NC State Louisville Virginia Tech or Virginia now why would I mentioned Virginia like there's both edges of this I think that's a team they should stop but you don't play them you don't play Wake Forest either so there are some teams like that that aren't on the schedule but NC State's tough lille's got a really good coach Tech's got a good quarterback they're kind of rising up a little bit any of those games could give you some issues fora state does not play them I did want to give an example of why you have to be careful with your schedule and some of these guys that you're going against like the Memphis game they should win but if you have turnovers in any major game any kind of blunder punt block something like that and you give an opponent that nobody thinks is going to win you give him a little hope things can go wrong here's what Seth henigan did last year as Junior season as a quarterback for the Memphis Tigers completed 318 of 476 passes 66.8% 3,883 yards 32 touchdowns nine picks 8.2 yards per completion he will hit a lot of short passes screens checkdowns he's not foolish with the football he's consistent now Forida State secondary again is very good and I don't think if if it's an even game turnover wise and there's no really weird plays where Point Blank Memphis just gets an easy Road for a touchdown that's going to be hard for them to win but this is a an example I could have used Preston Stones stats as well at SMU these are the kind of games you have to be careful the more I look into these things the more I read magazines the more I read articles and I kind of do these updates about the schedule the more I realize this is going to be a very big quarterback year again six of the 12 for returning starters and stone and henan are a couple of them but you have to bring your aame in those opportunities or else you're going to be in trouble so that's something that Florida state has to be wary of also if you kind of look at the the road games and some of the teams that you're you're going against none of them are necessarily great except for the two argu most difficult games on the Slate and that's Miami and Notre Dame they both have Dynamic quarterbacks that can move that's something that's interesting as well here here's a little something with henan a guy that's not as dynamic as Riley Leonard at Notre Dame but like against Missouri last year he had nine carries for 21 yards just enough Boise State 13 carries for 64 yards six carries for 27 yards and a win in the bowl game against Iowa State these quarterbacks if you get out of the rush Lanes it's something the Florida state did a little bit too much last year sometimes really going for the sack you have to stay in your Rush Lanes keep the quarterback in the puck in today's era five yards here seven yards there will eat you up they get on the road and they're going against like some of these quarterbacks Riley Leonard will definitely hurt you the quarterback of Miami obviously very very athletic doesn't prefer to run but that can be something that can hurt you we'll see how that goes um we'll get into some of the projections here in just a second on walked on simal but before I do I'm just curious in the comments yes or no Florida State makes the playoff and Part B not one or the other but part B why not just because they're Florida State don't give some generic answer if they're going to make it why do you think they will I'm going to go into more detail about why I think so here next on lockdown simar if you're looking 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minute tickets lowest price guarante so let's talk a little bit about ACC projections this is from ESPN and I think it's it's a nice way to kind of circumvent just one person myself talking about the opportunities where they have the rankings who Forida State plays Etc in this league it's it's pretty interesting because again it's a little Topsy Turvy Florida state has the highest ranking 27 and a half% at 23.8 Miami at 11.7 SMU at 9.7 Louisville 6.8 NC State 6.7 Virginia Tech 5.8 and North Carolina at 2% here's the interesting part they play Clemson they play Miami they play SMU but again they don't play Louisville they don't play NC State they don't play Virginia Tech so three teams in a row there you don't play and I know that like North Carolina is a decent team I just don't buy they're going to do much it just lost the top five pick at quarterback I'm not buying they're going to give Florida State a ton of trouble prove me wrong we'll see about that and I also think it's going to be kind of interesting how Florida State takes on being the hunted because teams are gonna be coming after him after the last couple Seasons but I I just don't think a lot of these schools are going to be able to do a ton we'll see how that goes in just a minute but I think there's also one other major point here this staff has been together so some of these Road games you know you can say what you want Duke and do they really are they scared Miami game half the fans there will be Florida State fans give or take be about 5050 at worse 45 to 55 the Notre Dame game is the only true road test that bothers me then of course the kind of the goofiness of the Georgia Tech game it's August 24th it's early and it's in Ireland how that that goes I don't know uh my prediction is that Florida State is going to go at worst 10- two if not 11- one and make the playoff and a lot of it has to do with this schedule I just think that not having Louisville NC State Virginia Tech is a really key part of it they're just not going to get as beat up even if they lost the Miami and the Notre Dame games I don't think anybody else I just don't see Los Clemson at home I don't think anybody else would beat them and they would still have a great chance if they do that to win the league or at least be tied with Miami or something and then play him in the ACC title game I'll definitely take four state on a neutral field if they they lose to him the first time to win the ACC and get the automatic bid now to my understanding that means you're getting one of the top five seeds we'll see how that goes but that's that's how I see it I also think that Florida state will have I would say at least a 50% chance if not a 60% chance to go 11 and one it's amazing how much different I look at the schedule now compared to like three four months ago researching about other teams because it's not only what you do it's what other teams do and I'm not as high on a couple of the teams as I originally was SMU has won so many people have talked about them and that is their first road test in Dallas but they're just not a team that has enough guys in the trenches in my opinion maybe I'm wrong about that but you know if you can get through the first five six games you give DJ an early opportunity to get a rhythm he doesn't have to throw for 350 a game or anything crazy but if he can throw for 250 to 280 a game not turn it over with the running backs and the defense they have they they'll be in pretty good shape so again even if they they lose one of the games against Miami or Notre Dame or even both they would have a great chance still to make the playoff most of the teams that I'll talk about my picks to make the playoff are probably going to lose two games a lot of these conference schedules with the conferences getting big but not as many of them it's rough so there will only be two or three teams I'm guessing with one loss or no losses that's that's my guess we'll see maybe it ends up being four or five but that's you know college football we're we're to the point now where there will be very few of them the competition is very very high we're going to talk about that next on lockdown seminal and to that point leave me a comment on YouTube which team or teams do you think have the best chance to make the playoff outside of the the obvious like Georgia or Texas okay I get it which teams do you think are on that bubble to make the playoff this year you could be fla state if you think they're above team which ones are going to get seeds like eight nine 10 and 11 the number 12 seed could be end up being Memphis is a team that's a group of five so eight through 11 are the teams that we're going to be talking about that's next unlocked on sings all right the college football playoff there's a lot of ways you could look at it this is my overall conjecture on it take it for what it's worth I think that the SEC will get four teams the Big 10 will get three uh you're gonna obviously have the opportunity to look at the game for a group of five so that's the 12 seed so you're up to eight you've got the big 12 will get one if they got two it'd be surprising but it's possible then the ACC will get a couple um it's possible the ACC could get three Notre Dame is a flying the ointment there for both the Big 12 and the ACC but I don't really think they'll necessarily take a spot away from the Big 10 or the SEC so here's what I got I'm not seeding these this is not in an order um I I want to learn more about what the committee this year is looking before before I see anything I have no idea take it for what it's worth I go with the SEC first I got Texas Georgia Miss and Bama uh Big 10 I've got Ohio State Oregon and Penn State that's so that's seven teams ACC I've got Florida State in Clemson and then I've got independent I got Notre Dame and then I went back and forth on this with the big 12 it'll be either Utah or Oklahoma State it's I I don't know which it'll be that's my pick I could see Kansas State and a few other schools having a chance to that league is really really hard Arizona's got a great offense you know maybe they could do it but I'll go with the defensive team More Often by the way Oklahoma state has 20 starters back plus a guy in their lineup that was injured or he would have started last year that his back so depending how you want to rank at 21 that's insane so Utah's really well coach team they got a seventh year quarterback one of those two teams I think will make the playoff now as for Florida State with this do I think that they are a shua no do I think they will automatically win the league no but they're my pick it'll be close I think if they get in as an ACC champ they'll probably be the number three to five seat somewhere in there that's my guess because the Big 10 and the SEC are the most likely to be however it ends up being at the top of the board but it it may not because again these schools could just beat the be Jesus out of each other and that ends up being a liability that's where you get into the stuff about the committee again that's why I didn't want to se it so let me explain further how you value wins some guys are just well you went undefeated you have to go some guys are like no it's just the total it test everybody is different every committee will be different there's not going to be the same thing year to year because even if it's the same person that came back on a committee that would be a very unique scenario where you're looking at them you're like did you adjust anything did you earn anything it is hard to project these things you're dealing with the human element humans make errors humans change their mind humans evolve it includes the college football playoff and the last part about this I'm curious about the ACC it's a little better that I think that some people give it credit like again NC State is not a team like looking at the the projections NC State is the sixth ranked team they just got a quarterback coming in that quite honestly is pretty good A transfer I think he's a 60 senior fifth year sixth year senior that hardly ever turns the ball over they got a great defense they got one of the best receivers in college football and Noah Rogers also transferred from Ohio State they could be a team that surprises a bunch of people who knows maybe Forida State plays them in the ACC title game and they beat him and that gives them an extra bump there's so many little factors like that how does the committee evaluate it every single person could look at that differently I don't know we don't know that much yet I'm curious to hear hear what they have to say of course that's like the last it's right around Halloween when they will do the playoff stuff and it's fascinating to me but it's not an easy thing to really go through because honestly there's a lot of pressure on those people this is the first year for the playoff so will they play it more conservatively and just go with record uh will they do a little bit more concern about except for a couple teams and kind of give them some Grace because like Texas they host I believe Georgia they go to Michigan they're going to play A&M at the end of the year on the road would they think about letting Texas in at nine and three get they lost to three really good teams maybe you know Penn State is a school that they haven't got in in the playoff yet but they're also a school to be realistic it's been on the cus foral times would they give them a little nod Forida State they didn't get in last year and they were right there on that cusp maybe they get the ND human element it's so wild with the playoff it's hard to say how that will go so anyway again my playoff team is Texas Georgia Miss Bama Ohio State Oregon Penn State Florida State Clemson Notre Dame Oklahoma State and then again there'll be a group of five school so anyway please like this video and hit that subscribe rate and review I'm looking forward to seeing you all again next week this has been Brian Smith on lockon seminars have a great week it