Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse decom link is in the description below I will remind you that sale is going to be ending in just a few days so make sure you check that out if you want to lock in the lower rate let's go ahead and jump in so it's kind of fun occasionally just a dub a speculation video where I don't really have that much of an agenda right I don't really know everything we're going to talk about between now and the end of the video but it's more of an exploration of ideas right and kind of talk about how we got to where we are today and what could be coming in the coming months so first of all if you were to look at the bull market support ban Bitcoin arguably at least in the short term obviously things could change by the end of the week but in the short term this looks like a rejection off the 20we moving average right and if you rewind the clock and you go back to what I was saying throughout March April May June and July this is what I've been saying I mean it is and it's been a slow process but this is what I've been saying for the last half year and essentially what it is is a repeat of 2019 now I got to be honest with you guys there's part of me that is far that is that is finally starting to think about the 2019 comparison as uncomfortable and the reason is because when I made the comparison to 2019 earlier in the year back in March when everyone was screaming from the rooftops that I was wrong and that Bitcoin was going to 100K before the having and all that stuff or by the summer it felt like all right 2019 seems valid you know everyone else is stuck on this like you know it's the having year it has to do something very specific but now I have found that a lot of the critics are now also in the 2019 camp so there is a part of me that thinks there's going to be a change soon to the trend all right and the reason is because once the masses start to believe in it then the trend has to change right if everyone's looking at it and they're like oh this is what's going to happen you know not only are the people that said this was 2019 half a year ago still saying it but now you got the people that you know mocked them half a year ago also now saying it so it almost seems like if everyone believes it at some point the trend has to change does that make sense that's kind of at least how I'm thinking about it and to some degree it has been a remarkable comparison it has worked out so well and if you're new to the channel the main reasons that we identify this 2019 comparison was because of of of really three or four different things the first of which is gold now listen I'm not asking you to care about gold okay personally I think it's a good hedge okay and I have been pretty vocal that I you know I am bullish and I have been bullish on gold I I actually sell I think it's going to go to 2500 before it gets a real pullback now it's a 2500 I don't really know but I'm not asking you to care about gold in the same way that you probably care about Bitcoin I don't care about gold in the same way that I find Bitcoin interesting and fascinating I don't but I again I'm not asking you to either I'm asking you to view gold as a signal more than as an investment now personally I do own some gold right not as much as Bitcoin but I do own some but I'm not asking you to view it in that way I'm not like I'm not trying to convince you of that because even if I were trying to convince you I don't think I'd have any luck what I'm trying to say is don't think about gold as something I'm trying to convince you up think about it as a signal okay and for for gold when it breaks out it historically has been a riskof signal for the cryptoverse you will see that there was a range that gold struggled to break out of throughout all these years and then once it finally broke out it marked quote unquote a midcycle top for Bitcoin you see that pretty clearly marked a midcycle top same thing happened this I and this is something we were watching very closely was when it breaks out it would likely Mark a mid cycle top for Bitcoin this cycle 2 and you can see that it has and I even said back over here many times there's plenty of tweets plenty of videos that you know what if it just does the same thing what if now the silver lining for the people who didn't believe in the 2019 comparison is that the angle of descent hasn't actually been all that bad so far right I mean if you look at this it's really not even been that bad bitcoin's still more or less around 60k in 2019 the angle of descent was quite a bit worse you see how how different this this trend here is to that one nevertheless the patterns are remarkably similar where you get a high and you almost immediately get a lower high right you get this high in March and then almost an immediate lower high in April so in that way in that way it's remarkably similar just in how it initially started cuz that was June and then July and then it's funny because I I said that the very first test of the 2week SMA will likely just be a wick and then we'll see Bitcoin bounce back off of it and go back you know go back up and put in a lower high and I can't tell you how many people were shouting from the rooftops about an immediate leg higher back in June when it went back when Bitcoin went back to 70k and I was like guys this is what happened in 2019 in August right instead of this cycle it was March April May and July last cycle it was June July August and October you see the difference right so it's remarkably similar it's remarkably similar now one of the things I said is that if this is to be a midcycle top then the expectation is that it would take 6 to n months more specifically if you look at the top over here it actually took 25 weeks to bottom ignoring the hard landing and I'll be frank guys we could have a hard Landing again it's not like you know we have an inverted yield curve um it looks like the 2-year 10e could be un inverting soon I think on some lower time frames we've already seen it sort of Wick into uninversity right now the 10e yields 3837 the 2-e 3867 really close right three basis points away from un inversion now the 10 year and the three month have a long way to go but it's not like you can't have a hard Landing right you you certainly could so far it's been 24 weeks I believe I could be wrong about that let me yeah 24 weeks and coincidentally 25 weeks would be September 2nd the very first week of September that's how long it took in 2019 before the lower high structure was broken but there's a couple of things that it's important to keep in mind there should be a deviation at some point right and I I you know I've said before if everyone believes in the comparison now which it kind of seems like everyone does to some degree then the comparison has to change at some point and I don't know exactly what it's going to look like but there it could be a number of things right one thing to consider is yes this took 25 weeks over here and therefore it might be similar this time maybe you get a little bit more weakness going into September followed by a nice uh move back up in October but there's sort of like another thing to consider and that is when you look at interest rates Bitcoin still continued this downtrend even after rate Cuts arrived and you could argue that Bitcoin didn't really begin a durable change in Trend until after there had been a sufficient amount of cuts from the Federal Reserve so you could see something similar where we go beyond the 2019 comparison and then we just get straight up into monetary policy which would be about you know which would basically say lower highs and lower lows until there's a sufficient pivot by the FED right and you could argue that in 2019 by the end of the year that was a sufficient pivot the S&P kept on putting in new all-time highs yes we got the pandemic induced recession but you could argue that would have been a soft Landing had that not occurred there have been examples of soft Landings in the past 1967 1995 we had invertig gal curves we did not immediately get recessions so you could have argued that that would have been a soft Landing had the pandemic not occurred but again it took what 75 basis points of rate cuts to make it happen so it is true that at the very least and I said this half a year ago at the very least the market would be in a downtrend until September at the earliest if it follows 2019 there's a chance that that could be all all it gets right there's also a chance that it just continues this pattern until there's a sufficient number of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve the reason it would fundamentally Mak sense is that if you think about it interest rates have been 5 and a half% for a long time going back to 5 and quarter it's probably not going to really move the needle for a lot of people right I mean it's not like it's not like all the companies out there are like oh you know now it's only five and a quarter let's start let's start hiring tons of people now it is true that some you know some of the smaller market caps companies might be able to get you know more favor more favorability with banks now that it seems like loose monetary policy is coming in but there's still no guarantee it's going to be enough until the FED cuts a lot more so I I think it's important to remember that even after rate Cuts in 2019 Bitcoin did not exit that downturn and it really wasn't until the end of the year where it started to pick back up and really it was the following year right it was 2020 the market finally started to pick back up and it took out the lower high structure now technically speaking it didn't hold it for very long but you can see that that lower high structure was eventually broken just like this one will likely also eventually be broken but in the short term you know I think it makes sense sort of respect the trend and right now Bitcoin is really struggling with the bull market sport band and I said this back over here the first test will just be a wick after it it could be a fake out below it and then you'll start to spend more time below it I also talked about in the context of the 8we SMA how the 8we SMA is going to be a difficult thing for Bitcoin to get back above and durably hold doesn't mean it can't ever right of course it eventually will but that's one thing to consider and remember back in March when gold broke out we identified this you know well in advance and I said that Bitcoin would likely be in a downtrend for at least half a year and that the altcoin market would get absolutely wrecked because e Bitcoin was breaking down and when e Bitcoin breaks down historically alts usually drop about 70% over the next six 9 months and so all that seems to be playing out other metrics that we looked at right were were were things like um usdt dominance right and and that is one that I I continue to look at because you know every single time that we get a move up by Bitcoin I keep going back to this to this trend line I'm like well is USD dominance broken off of this higher low higher high pattern and you can see that every single time that us DT dominance hit this trend line it it led to a pretty large correction in the cryptoverse it did right in fact all these other prior Corrections had at least 50% drops by Bitcoin and I mean so far this time bitcoin's only dropped what 30% now other alt you know you look at other cryptocurrencies you look at some altcoins some of some of they're down a lot more right in fact ethereum dropped from 4,000 to 1900 already so some of them have already had 50% drops historically when e Bitcoin breaks down it drops 70% so this was something else I pointed out back in March that it's hitting this long-term trend line and what if this time is not different and you can see that it wasn't different right it's played out the exact same way now the other thing that I think was convincing to us back in March was when you look at like the ROI of Bitcoin right from the low if you look at at say Cycles four and three you can see that in cycle four Bitcoin kind of got ahead of schedule for a while and then as those rate Cuts arrived it it got back in line You could argue the same thing has happened this time right it got ahead of schedule and then as the rate Cuts finally arrive it gets back in line with the prior cycles and in fact at this point in the cycle last two cycles this was essentially where bitcoin's Roi from the bottom was now if you look at it as measured from the peak though arguably Bitcoin is still quote unquote ahead of schedule because at this point in the last two cycles Bitcoin was still about 45% down from the all-time high at this point in the cycle to give you an idea of what that would theoretically mean 4 5% down from the all-time high and we're going to take the all-time high from 2021 because that's what it's comparing to 45% down from there is it around 37$ 38,000 right around 38 let's get it yeah about 38k I don't know if if Bitcoin is going to go that low but there's a chance that it does okay and you know I I've had to listen to All Year people tell me you know why the 2019 comparison is wrong you know it's a having year blah blah blah but it's possible right it's possible that happens again it it doesn't have to um you know if you look at Roi from the peak but you take it from the April Peak You could argue that it's right here right but going back to that Roi after the bottom chart and just looking at at sort of cycle 4 to cycle 3 cycle 4 didn't just get back in line but eventually it went below it because we got a hard Landing so you know that could always happen in cycle 5 as well right it's not like bitcoin's immune to that type of stuff one of the things i' I've thought about too and again I don't know the likelihood but if you look at the 100 week moving average you know after Bitcoin broke out above it in 2019 and as those rate Cuts finally arrived Bitcoin fell back to its 100 we estimate and coincidentally the 100 we ma is right around 38k and remember what I said 45% down from that all-time high puts you right around that 100 we moving average which again as measured from the peak is where Bitcoin was at this point in both prior Cycles so but but again the Cycles have a way of of Playing Tricks on you right like at some points the cycle will get very overheated and make you think that it's going to be you know different and then it just ends up not being different the same cycle same thing happened last cycle right so it's important to remember that things could play out in a very similar fashion where you just get lower lows and lower highs until you get a sufficient pivot from the Federal Reserve whatever that might be okay again the Silver Lining so far at least is that the angle of descent hasn't really been that bad in in 2024 compared to 2019 that doesn't mean it can't change but I mentioned many many times that Bitcoin would likely hit 50k before September by September at the latest and we already hit it in in August and the reason I was looking at that was just following this pattern over here so I I don't know I mean I I don't know exactly what's going to happen and I I think you know it's it's fine to sort of admit that um but it it does go to show how how things aren't all that different and how some of those things we were looking at back in March despite how heavily they were criticized actually held some Merit right I mean even even looking at the FIB retracement stuff which is again dubious at best Bitcoin retraced to the 4.236 and do you guys remember this comparison that I made how in 2021 when you look at the 2018 2017 top in 2021 Bitcoin only went up to the 3.61 eight and then in 2024 it went all the way up to the 4.236 and the reason I bring that up now is because again and I've mentioned this many many times total did the exact opposite right total did the exact opposite because what total did Total market cap of all the cryptos so what it did was in 2021 it went to the 4.236 and in 2024 it went to the 3618 so they're reversed that's why Bitcoin dominance is so much higher today than it was back in 2021 in 2021 bitcoin's price essentially the same as is today right I mean if you overlay Bitcoin USD onto the chart you'll see it price of bitco coin same as it was over here in 2021 main difference back then dominance was like 40% today it's almost it's you know it's 57% again it's that rotation of capital so in thinking about what's going on right now with Bitcoin I think Bitcoin has a way of sort of sniffing out weakness in the economy before the stock market does one of the things that one of the reason re I say that there's a lot more passive investing going into like 401ks and stuff you know more so today than you know really at any point in the past I me there's more and more people are doing that stuff and so I I do wonder if Bitcoin has a better way of of sniffing out that weakness in the economy it's it's it's kind of interesting right because you know in 2019 it was when gold broke out and normally when Gold's breaking out it's sort of a signal that something is wrong but the stock market doesn't necessarily get that memo immediately it can take years right I mean and I've heard a lot of people say well you know why is Bitcoin diverging from the stock market as if it's something uh you know entirely foreign concept same thing happened in 2019 when gold broke out right I mean the S&P kept going up Bitcoin went down you're seeing the same thing happen it's almost like this is the jaws of liquidity between Bitcoin and the S&P it's it's a similar concept as if you were to Overlay you know global net liquidity and how the jaws of liquidity open at certain points in the cycle right because for a long time they'll they they're more or less in you know moving in tandem right if if if liquidity is going down bitcoin's going down if liquidity is going up bitcoin's going up but then at some point the jaws of liquidity open you see that and and this cycle they opened in in in a April or May of 2023 but same thing happened in Prior Cycles right I mean if you look at at prior Cycles you will see the same exact thing happened where you know you you essentially had these jaws of liquidity as well right where they they move in tandem for a while but then at some point the jaws of liquidity open and then eventually they snap shot again one other thing I mentioned a lot back in March was that if you were to look at at the extension from the 20we moving average we're going to look at the natural log of the price of the 20we SMA one of the things I mentioned back then was that historically you would expect diminished volatility from the 20we moving average and sure enough I pointed it out you know it's funny I I pointed out twice now and I'm not saying necessarily on the YouTube comments but in in you know some of the other message boards and stuff I seen so many people give me a hard time about this chart about talking about the extension of the 20we moving average and yet again I talked about it in in early 2021 and I that was the reason why I said we needed a summer low I mentioned again in 2024 and said that was the reason we probably going to get a summer drop and I said that if it falls 2019 the summer low will extend into the winter into the fall and winter and now it seems like it has at least into the fall but you can see that every time Bitcoin hits this trend line gets a correct ction right this time wasn't different now one interesting thing to keep your eye on is the RSI the RSI is is something that is is dubious at best and I I don't really put a lot of faith into it honestly because one of the reasons is like like you know Bitcoin dominance weekly RSI I've been having people tell me for for years now why dominance had topped out you know because of the you know because the the weekly RSI was was um there was like Divergence forming on on either the daily or the weekly or whatever so again the the the RSI is is not something to take to the bank at all but with that said if you look at the weekly RSI actually I'm not that interested in the weekly look at the two- we keep an eye on this area right here because this is the area in 2013 where the two-e RSI bounced I don't think this is 2013 because this is not a posst having year so I think it's very well could not bounce at this level like it did in 2013 it could I'm I'm only pointing it out now so that you know that there's a possibility that it does but I still am in this Camp I'm still in that camp right now I could be compelled to change my mind at some point but I haven't changed my mind just yet again guys you know I'm not trying to tell you how to invest I mean for for bit Bitcoin DCA at at risk levels you're comfortable with tends to be the best long-term winning strategy I'm just pointing out these you know caveats with with certain metrics that often get ignored when I'm mentioning them and and the prices Manic and then only later do people start to care about them but I would implore you to try to care about them when it matters and and not just kind of mock them and discount them because you think it has to be different and the same you know it goes with gold it goes with the usdt dominance I've pointed this out many many times and and here we are all these you know all these months later and you know Bitcoin has not really been able to to get above its bullmark sportband in any durable way um since March um other than just getting bounces off of it but not really putting in new highs and if you look at the altcoin market it's been even worse right I mean very similar in fact right to 2019 where you know I mean it it it you you sort of get your your first rally and then you get your second top and then eventually the altcoins just kind of bleed back down to that first pullback right you see that pullback there and then eventually they B bleed back down to it same thing's happening it looks like right I mean this is your altcoin Market you have your first top your second top and it looks like you know you have this low right here and eventually altcoins could very well just bleed back down to that low others already have right I mean if you look at other well others Bitcoin but if you look at others it's already done it you see that very similar I mean like that looks really similar does it not I think monetary policy is important it's playing out in a very similar fashion and actually one of the things I mentioned before is that you might actually see smaller market cap alts do a little bit better than than higher market cap alts for a little [Music] while because if you look at others divided by total three minus others you're looking at small small market cap Al divid by high market cap alts they were hitting this long-term trend line and when it bounces off this it means that smaller caps are doing better than higher market caps that doesn't mean they're going up on their USD pairs it could just mean that smaller market cap alts are not bleeding as much maybe because a lot of them already got you know were bleeding for a long time but it's just something to consider so with Bitcoin as I said back in March if it's going to follow 2019 the earliest it would turn around would be September if it falls 2019 if it follows all of 2019 and you get a hard Landing then it could take nine months which would mean through the end of the year through December and I'm honestly I'm kind of think there's a good chance that the market does stay boring for the rest of the year and kind of just slowly bleeds as altcoins as people really struggle with with altcoins um it's one of the reasons why Bitcoin goes down is to crush the altcoin market um and you know and I'm not saying all altcoins are bad but you know a lot of times you'll get these like as as Bitcoin goes higher and higher more and more scams pop up people lose their money and and then Bitcoin eventually drops to sort of put those you know put those altcoins back in their place but so there's two ways to look at it right I mean you you you can look at it from a Time perspective and say well in 2019 it took 6 months for the lower high structure to change that's one way to look at it that might not be the only way to look at it because again the other way to look at it is not just oh it took this long the other way to look at it is to say oh it didn't break above it until after we had a few rate Cuts right after about 75 Bas points rate Cuts then the lower high structure was broken right now I'm leaning towards that view over just following 2019 forever as I said before seems like everyone's now on board with a 2019 view when most people half a year ago mocked it but if everyone's on board then something has to change more than likely so what happens if the way it changes is is is it just the timing is different because the timing of rate Cuts is different the other thing to remember too is that back over here when Bitcoin did get this rally it was only about 27 weeks and then the bleed was about 25 weeks so basically Bitcoin spent about the same time going down as it's spent going up it's kind of a scary proposition if you think about it because over here Bitcoin basically went up for about 68 weeks now I'm not implying that Bitcoin has to go down that long but anything's possible right I mean 68 weeks would put you all the way out until halfway through 2025 there are some you know there are it's not like there's no reason to believe that that could happen it's possible um I'm not saying it should be your based case it's not mine but it is possible and there is there's some precedent for it I mean one of the things I've looked at before is um you know is is the altcoin market and trying to find things to compare that to and what I've often found is one of the best comparisons for the altcoin market and one of the things I said before right is is that even in last cycle alts put in new lows in the having year okay yes it was a pandemic induc recession but you know whatever right there's always a reason um I thought like what you know is there anything that that matches such a long sort of cycle here for for this uh for this move right a long move down long consolidation a move back up but it's a lower high and then they come back down as Bitcoin gets a correction and the thing that I think you can take a look at and this is really getting really dubious at this point is the the move from 1946 to 1949 with the S&P 100 which occurred during a period of high inflation following World War II right all the money Printing and what's interesting is if you you take a bar pattern here and if you overlay that with Bitcoin us or sorry not Bitcoin but if you overlay that with the altcoin market this cycle right the uh the width here is is kind of off because I didn't measure it it exactly but um it's about the same like if you if you if you actually take the time to like sort of match all this up it's about the same I'm I'm not really doing Injustice but um basically it looks something like that right and and the reason I bring it up right the reason I bring it up is because in that cycle for the SNP during period of high inflation one of the things you'll notice is that the amount of time it took for for the S&P back then to go from this high to sort of that high was about 25 months and it was still mostly at those highs even after 30 months 30 months so 25 to 30 months so if you go look at at at total three and you take that you know from the high the high was right there so that right there is about 27 months so so there's a similar time frame and again it was during a period of high inflation but again the reason why I I bring it up is if you look at the SNP back in 1946 to 1949 we actually saw a a deflationary crash and that deflationary crash occurred in the postelection year so it' be the post having year and the bottom was in June of 1949 right that was the the uh you know a post elction year so the bottom ended up being in June and it actually occurred during a deflationary crash right so this is the US inflation rate year-over year uh if you draw a sort of a horizontal line at at zero you will see that we saw a deflationary crash and that's why the S&P put in a new low in the postelection year so when you're looking at at something like like Bitcoin and you're wondering how long could it go on for how long could the lower high lower low structure go on for before the trend changes I think it it could go on as long as the rest of the year that's I mean that honestly seems about right to me um it's possible that could be broken in October as early as as rate Cuts arrive if if perhaps the neutral rate is is higher than the FED thinks and if you know if they cut 50 basis points or something which are probably going to cut 25 but if they were to cut and it ends up being they end up going to a level that's lower than the neutral rate then it's possible that the downturn you know that the the downtrend could be as over could be over as early as September when they cut rates so that's sort of like the most optimistic scenario I'd say that's optimistic scenario I would say more moderate scenario is by the end of the year because last cycle it was about you know it took about 75 basis points of rate cuts to put in a you know to to basically take out that that lower high structure and there's a good chance that the FED is going to take several meetings to get 75 Bas points to rate Cuts in right it could take September November December right it could it might actually take till the end of the year and then you might get a a spring back up in January 2025 that's kind of what I'm leaning towards right now but there's also examples where you get deflationary crashes like in 1949 where you know you you you continue to see the downtrend for longer that could be more in line with that view of like you know what if you spend the amount of the same time amount if you like back in 2019 Bitcoin spent 20 you know 28 weeks going up and then about 25 weeks going down right then we had a hard Landing but I'm talk about exclude the hard Landing 28 weeks going up 25 weeks going down about the same and here you know that was 68 weeks going up it's already been going down for 24 weeks you know 60 60 weeks put you a little less than a year from now right so that would be if it followed sort of the the length comparisons right if it were to spend the same time amount same amount of time going down as it goes going up a consideration right don't don't you know feel like you have to rush be like oh Ben says this or Ben thinks that I'm just pointing out this is a possibility right I think a lot of people just assume the fed's going to immediately come to the rescue and and and and print everything back and and you know pump up your altcoin bags but there is a reality that you know they might go slow and it might take a while and it could maybe it takes till next month if if the neutral rate isn't as as as um low as people think or maybe it takes till the end of the year if the neutral rate is you know maybe somewhere in the four to 5% range and maybe it takes until mid 2020 I maybe takes longer if it's even further away if you're not familiar with the neutral rate there's this like theoretical idea about rstar which states that like you know there's this there's the there's interest there's a neutral rate you know such that if interest rates are above that the economy is slowing down and if interest rates are below that the economy speeds up you know and so there's discussions where is the neutral rate is it 3% is it 4% is it 5% is it 7% right or what if what if we're still below the neutral rate you know and that might sound like a perplexing idea and I I don't agree with it I mean I think the neutral rate is lower than where we are but if you only looking at the S&P and saying well it's basically at all-time highs or close to it you know is it is it right is it are we really that far above the neutral rate but I think we are I mean if you look at the unemployment rate it is starting to go parabolic right so I would I would keep that in mind I think it it might be about time to deviate soon from that 2019 comparison and say what if it just takes a certain number of rate Cuts before you know before Bitcoin can durably get out of this you know downtrend that it's in and I'm sure we'll test that idea many times right it's kind of the same idea like you know I remember you guys remember with eth Bitcoin and the merge and I I remember saying like lower highs I I just remember telling all the eth Maxis over and over and over again right these are all lower highs whether you like it or not and and so eth Bitcoin topped out one month before the merge and then it's just been lower highs ever since I think that probably will come to an end soon probably this year and eth Bitcoin will bottom out before the end of the year it could bottom out as early as next week but you know it could take as late as December so I think that downtrend might actually be over soon but then normally remember alt Bitcoin pairs bottom before alt USD pairs bottom because then they go down commensurate with Bitcoin USD so the same thing could be said right I mean ever one month before the merge eth Bitcoin topped out and then it's been lower highs ever since one month before the having Bitcoin USD topped out and it's been lower highs ever since and I pointed this out many many times and every time we get a rally people lose their Collective minds and then we keep dumping back back down now again I'm not oblivious to the idea that we could just be getting back in line with prior cycles and I I've mentioned that many many times like there does exist a scenario where we're just kind of slowly moving up here until October and then things accelerate from there possibility especially if you're in the uh you know left translated Peak camp with a peak in late 2024 like a lot of the people are a lot of people that were in that Camp though I think I've tried to quietly walk that back but it's always a possibility there's also a possibility that Top's already in right and and that's sort of an uncomfortable possibility I think for a lot of people but there's always possibility I think the biggest evidence for that again it's not my base case I want to be clear but I do think the biggest evidence for that would be that like well technically speaking the dotc crash sort of kicked off in March of the election year um right March of the election year and then it kind of slowly trended back up and in into late August and then the downtrend finally began the recession finally arrived and you could argue You could argue something like that's going on right here too right sort of topping out March the election year you know getting a pump back up in August or something and and then seeing the market sort of deteriorate after that but I'll tell you why that's not my base case it's something to think about right it's something to think like maybe but one of the reasons why I'm not really on with that idea is because you know if you look at like the social risk it's at point1 right when I think about dot I I think about how basically it seemed like everyone was involved at least from what I've heard like everyone was trading doc stocks kind of like 2021 right when everyone was trading crypto cryptocurrencies but I look at it I'm like you know the social interest is is just so low right now right it looks a lot more like 2019 than it does like 2017 or 2021 and when you think about like the dot crash you'll hear about how much this exuberance there was and how crazy everything was um and how many people were investing in in in you know in tech stocks and then it took you know two and a half years to sort of get them out but I don't see that right now I mean I I see a market that that hasn't really had that much social interest in in years in fact if you were to look at the advanced decline index for the top 100 cryptocurrencies they just keep it keeps on putting in new lows right I mean it it just it looks like the bare Market never really stopped for a lot of altcoins because a lot of altcoins are near their lows not near their highs that's why I'm more so in the 1946 to 1949 camp where you know I'm kind of more in that camp I think right now than I am in like a DOT camp now I'm not saying there's no similarities like there's some right I mean when when Cisco flipped Microsoft to become the number one company in in 2000 that marked the top and Nvidia flipped Microsoft coincidentally it flipped the same company that Cisco flipped back then and I I put out a tweet on that day saying hey maybe it's time for a correction and then of course you know the Nvidia dropped like 35% after that so there are some similarities but I also could very well see it just being more similar to like 1946 to 1949 uh than than what we saw on the Doom crash so you know as it relates to bitcoin I think right now you know Bitcoin is sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place right like it it needs looser monetary policy but it's probably going to really need more than just 25 basis points of rate cuts it really needs about 200 basis points of rate Cuts is what I would say you know get it back into the 3 to 4% range and then Bitcoin might actually be able to break out of this downtrend I'm not sure if it's going to break out on a 25 basis point cut from a timing perspective Ive if it were to break out in October it would match 2019 but it would not match 2019 in terms of the number of of rate Cuts you could also argue that 75 basis points to rate Cuts in 2019 represented a larger percentage of the overall fed funds rate because the FED funds rate back then was you know was like what like two and a quarter two and a half I don't I don't even remember but it was nowhere near what it is today and back then it was yeah 2 and a half so 75 base points was a a much larger percentage of the overall fed funds rate 75 base points today is is not nearly as much um so yeah I mean I I I think it it it kind of makes sense what's what's happening and and really what would make a ton of sense is if this just continues with occasional lower highs for a little while until say like September October at the absolute earliest but you know easily going through the end of the year potentially and then eth getting that larger correction into its logarithmic regression ban which it hasn't actually gone to yet this cycle and remember in 2016 eth also had sort of this Wick near the regression band in August of the having year and then in Q4 it finally came down into the regression band and in order for eth to go down you know the market probably needs to stay relatively boring or people just need to not be interested in in the altcoin market and in order for people to stay uninterested in the altcoin market then it just means you're not going to have a ton of rate Cuts this year they could come next year but you still might only get like 50 to 75 base points maybe 100 uh this year which would still be more in line with 2019 um which also saw eth going to the lower logarithmic regression trend line in Q4 so whether you look at 2016 or 2019 eth did the same thing so yeah I mean that's where I stand I mean that's so your dubious specul for the week as it relates to bitcoin I I do think the 2019 comparison uh in terms of time is going to have to be retired soon because I think now that the masses believe it it's probably time to Pivot to something else what I would say it's probably time to Pivot to is just follow monetary policy and and you know it's probably going to take a few rate Cuts but once you get a few rate cuts under your belt it's possible for Bitcoin to maybe break this structure and of course I mean you know you're going to get your first rate cut next next month so next month as I said half a year ago next month would be the the earliest that Bitcoin could break out of its downtrend the absolute earliest and it's almost September I think it could still struggle just because we're still not looking at like a lot of rate Cuts but we'll take it one step at a time you know one week at a time and you know I I think base case right now for me is that the market is still relatively boring for a few more months but um I'm willing to Pivot you know I mean I'm certainly willing to Pivot as the as the data continues to come in I think the most concerning thing right now you know is the unemploy I mean look it's starting to go nonlinear I mean it is nonlinear it's parabolic normally that's not a good thing so something to think about the other thing I was talking about a little bit is if you like look at the S&P let's think about how do you identify the bubbles in with the S&P right how do you identify bubbles it's like what if we what if we incorporate some of the metrics that we follow like the unemployment rate divided by the unemployment rate squared in fact and you'll see how the S&P gets into these sort of horizontal phases before recessions occur right here's the uh this was just before the 19 the recession in like in the early 1990s but you see how it does the same thing I was like well what if we incorporate other things that we follow like I don't know inflation and interest rates and then you get this chart which is kind of eerie because if you look at it it sort of looks like the S&P goes through these bubbles that it eventually returns back down to this trend line and it just kind of looks like this is the biggest one of them all so that's also something to think about we'll continue to follow this stuff and and and see you know does this play out like prior cycles does it not you know where are there deviations um but I'll be here every s of the way theoretically um and uh we'll take from there so if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe give video a thumbs up and again check out the sale on inth cryptoverse premium at IND cryptv verse.com links in the description below s is going to be ending in a few days I'll see you guys next time bye