The Shocking Truth About Keenan Allen's 2024 Outlook

[Music] because now Matt and Chase have to face off over Kean Allen's ranking and Chris this time you get to be the judge so chase you have Kean Allen all the way up at wide receiver 29 Matt you got him at 38 so Kean all missing a wide receiver three tier within your rankings in 12 man lead he was dominant last season so what's going to be the big drop off in your mind with Keenan Allen when Keenan Allen is playing he's as good as anyone out there there's no question about that he's one of the top wide receivers one of the best uh possession type guys out there the problem is he's not always out there and that is for me your best ability is your availability and we're seeing this right now and I can pull up this numbers here but in that TW year 12 to year 13 four wide receivers they is roughly a 15% regression on the Baseline of their p uh PPR production that's right where Keenan Allen happens to be so he's right there at that regression Peak and now to go with Chris here now because not we're not arguing there are those melti Beed in Chicago we just talk about how much I love DJ Moore those numbers are not going anywhere for DJ Moore Romo dun love him too I mean he's gonna be that guy I think he's going to be that number two wide receiver there for Chicago based on the war of attrition not because he's going to be better than Keenan Allen on a points per game basis but because he's gonna play more games therefore acquire more points and this is why I'm kind of putting the injury risk into Keenan Allen I'm putting the regression into Keenan Allen here I'm putting all these other mous de feed in here DeAndre Swift's gonna get his coold Comm everyone's got to find a piece of that even with that increase in passing that's still a decrease in Target production for Keenan Allen compared to what he had in Los Angeles and we'll say what we want to say going from Justin Herbert to Caleb Williams even though some people here have Caleb Williams at seven and probably have him above Justin Herbert Justin Herbert is still the superior quarterback right now based on his arm talent and everything else that goes into it his football IQ so we're going to see that right now where I think ke all's going to have a bit of a regression he's going to be a good wi receiver he's going to be better for the Bears than he is for your fantasy teams I'll put it that way okay well chase you still believe in Kean Allen why should we get him okay hold on I'm sticking in my bar store here boys I got to stand up for this okay now listen Keenan Allen was wide receiver three on a half points per game Half Point PPR per game basis last season okay I get your point your point about his age is not invalid he's he's he's aging he's aging I'm not in the business necessarily of predicting or projecting injuries and injury time lost for guys I think we have to assume you have to assume Health in in in order to in order to properly project these guys now you can bake it in if you want to say he's only going to play so many games that's your prerogative but we have no idea how many games he may or may not miss we have no many games anybody could miss I don't know how many games the third string you know right guard for the for the Titans is going to play this year either but Keenan Allen has never never scored the kind of points in a season when he's played G any games at all other than the one year where he played one game and was hurt he's never scored the point kind of points that would put him all the way down at wide receiver 38 okay wide receiver 29 last season had 168 fantasy points in half PPR okay the wide receiver 38 where you have't ranked had 141 that's eight and a half fantasy points per game and a half Point PPR set okay Keenan Allen averages for his career 13.2 even if we take 15% of that away based on on your math and I won't even dispute that math if we take 15% of that away he still hits 11.2 points per game in a half Point PPR setting last year 11.2 half points per game would have put him right at wide receiver 27 with Mr Cooper cup there okay so I I think 29 is right in the Wheelhouse I think it's low based on his his abilities and based on what he can do and I already said I I said it when I when I gave you the win over over Chris here in the last Showdown slide that in there well he did the same thing this is an offense that's going to throw more than they did last year you can't look at the Bears last year and and glean anything from from numbers and usages and anything like that last year because completely different offensive coordinator but if you look at the Seahawks last year they were not a great passing team they were right dead in the they were in the middle to lower middle of of all the passing stats they were S7 in pass attempts last year the Seahawks were under Shane Waldren they were 16th in completion percentage Tyler Lockett their wide receiver too for all intents and purposes was wide receiver 33 so better than 38 not quite 29 but his line was 79 catches 122 targets 894 yards five touchdowns he scored 9.6 fantasy points per game in a half PPR setting I think that Keenan Allen is much better than Tyler Lockett even at his Advanced age nearing you know nearing where I'm at uh and just I just think that there's no way he's that low uh a guy can't go from one season even with regression going from three all the way down to outside of of starting territory I just don't see it even with a rookie quarterback all right Chris goe good rebuttal quick so when we look at those numbers I get it you're putting these numbers with Keenan Allen as the alpha when you're looking at all these numbers you're not looking at him as the beta beta here which he's going to be in Chicago he's going to be the beta bear behind Moore and Odun so now look at all these numbers I think Lock's a good example I disagree he's going to be behind adun I do not think Keenan Allen plays behind romad dun at all this season all I'm saying is the guy who's judging right now has a dunesday at number one on this team so if a dunesday is number one and Mo's number two that means Allen's number three and now you have to look at across the entire National Football League at wide receiver threes and find out what their points per game is find that average and that's probably more realistic to what Keenan Allen's going to give you now here's the thing those hamstring injuries and stuff those happen in California it's nice to recover in California have you ever pulled your hamstring in Chicago I mean that hits a little bit different I mean that minus 30 minus 40 that hits a little bit different than plus 42 plus 50 in the winter so those injuries may take a little bit longer to kind of get yourself warmed back up especially the soft tissue ones that we talk as I said I'm I'm not going to predict I can't predict injuries for anybody though I would have predicted injuries for Christian mcaffrey for the last three seasons too but yeah based on his based on his history can't go ahead and judge this thing good argument no no look I I I follow in the middle of you both of you I think Kean Allen's the guy think maybe we could all agree with this is a guy that maybe is a good shot to take on your fantasy team isn't a guy that you have to prioritize getting but could be somebody who could be a value now where I have some questions Chason where I'm going to you know defer to our Gus I think for Matt takes this one for my book because I have more concerns there could be the regression for Keenan Allen I don't I'm with you chase I don't I don't project guys necessarily getting hurt Keen Allen has a lot to play for this year as well it's gonna be for his career basically and it's for his last contract he's going to get so he has a lot of reasons to be out that field and push through that cold um so I I do give him credit for that but I do think when you look at kind of following the things in in place you have a younger receiver DJ Moore who sets up the profile longterm better for you than he does you have a guy that he just drafted who profiles to be that number one receiver long term you know over time I think sooner than later and then Keenan Allen who I think is a great security blanket I think he can feel a lot of different roles and I think that's why he's G to be one of the more consistent you know receiver four three four options you could have on your team where Dan I think you're GNA actually have a clue what you get from him and this is where I think maybe Matt I do like some of the Chase's points is that you know when you have ke out your lineup I think this is be a receiver three that you know what you're going to get verus lot receiver threes you have no idea for example R you know dos last year you had no idea what dos what you're going to get from you know week to week um and you know 10 touchdowns W having a pretty good overall year but what Green Bay receiver were you put your L week to week you didn't really know so I think when it comes down to Chicago's priorities will we kind of be established pretty early and Keenan Allen means a guy that you'll have confidence if you do play him what you're going to get out of them but I'm prer that I think there's more you know concerns about what he can be this year and the priorities in total poll I should say and then also what he can have his AG wise so I defer with that