Fantasy Football Week 1 Lineup Advice | Surprising Sits and Sleeper Starts (2024)

Introduction Hello everybody welcome into the fantasy pros football podcast I'm Ryan warmley joined on this Thursday NFL season night opener by Andrew Erikson and Pat Fitz Morris fellas we are here I've said that a few times in the last few weeks like we finally arrived football is almost back in our lives now it really is it will be back in a matter of mere hours there are no more sleeps until the season returns I of course had to wear my Ravens polo for those watching on YouTube to support the team tonight I'm assuming won't be able to wear it tomorrow morning because I will be disappointed after tonight's game so I had to get it in today Erikson uh can you tell us about the Jersey you are rocking here in honor of the start of the season oh so I'm rocking lucky number 13 Gabe Davis Buffalo Bills Jersey because week one means one thing Victory lap season so this is an honor of Gabe Davis in that massive Thursday night game he had a couple years ago where he's vaulting up the wide receiver rankings just to disappoint us all so remember week one don't get carried away don't get carried away it wasn't even week one it was drive one and everyone was like oh it's over like we nailed it on Gabe Davis that was a very fun time with somebody who actually was very heavily invested in game everybody I mean we were drafted him in fourth round as a number two receiver on the bills didn't pan out yeah Fitz how exciting are you what's your feeling like you is it more anticipation is it more excitement is it more nerves about you know the Packers have expectations what's your mindset going into to week one here yeah a little of everything just really excited to be watching meaningful games again we need new data we've been talking about the same I've been reciting the same Chase Brown stats all offseason as you well know worm so uh yeah we need new inputs here and uh I'm I'm really excited about it and I don't know what Erikson's talking about no one in the fantasy Community ever overreacts to week one so everyone's calm and measured so they definely don't famously call it overreaction week so we'll uh we'll disagree with Ericson there uh for everybody listening this is going to be our Thursday show this year it'll be myself Ericson and fits every single Thursday all season long it's going to be a start sit show we might throw in some you know player debates about you know your waiver wire ad versus maybe a guy who's in that Flex range we'll have some Flex questions we'll have some player position questions we'll have some longer debates we'll have some shorter ones but yeah it's going to generally be what you would expect from a start sit show we're also going to do a touchdown calls contest with against the listeners we'll do that at the end of the show so stick around for our picks for Touchdown we'll kind of split it between the three of us each taking a position each different week um but yeah this is going to be what it's going to look like so I hope everybody enjoys it feel free to give us feedback early on is it sort of a new format and a new group of us doing this show but um we're hoping that you guys like it and uh and we make some good calls here on the show throughout the year quick reminder for everyone that all of our rankings can be found at fantasypros.com rankings we've got tiers there we've got week one rankings there now too of course it's been draft rankings most of the summer we've now of course made the switch to week one let's start off at the top of the show here guys we sort of our plant your flag Javonte Williams players you can consider this something like the must start player of the week the guy that these guys really believe you need to be starting this week who aren't obvious we're not going to be picking players in the top 24 at their position so guys who are kind of outside that range or at the very least in the back end of that range certainly not inside the top 15 or anything like that that is who we are planting our flag on Fitz let's start with you who is your plant your flag player for week one javante Williams I think he is going to be on sort of the flex bubble for a lot of people this week and I think people should start him um I've been really excited about his upside in the passing game Denver had a league High 153 running back targets last year Shawn Payton's offenses have always involved the running backs heavily in the passing game going all the way back to Reggie Bush Darren sprouls Alvin chimra of course um since 2011 hat tip to JJ zachar for the stat Shawn Payton's teams account for eight of the 20 highest running back Target shares in the NFL so there is ample pass catching upside for gavon oh and by the way Joe B Knicks has been this short passing ball control quarterback throughout his college career and I expect him to be that kind of quarterback in the NFL too but like there was some underrated Workhorse usage for Javonte Williams last year like coming off that major 2022 knee injury they they used him pretty lightly in the early weeks of the season but from week seven to week 16 a 10 game sample he averaged 18.9 touches a game 16 carries 2.9 catches so if we get that kind of usage from javante again with the pass catching upside he has I mean we could get a top 10 running back season from javante Williams one piece of advice I've been trying to give newer managers this week is don't be afraid to start guys that you didn't draft into your starting spots like the draft is over where you took these guys is I mean it can somewhat inform your decision making you if you took a guy early it's usually because you like him but don't be afraid to mix it up and don't just go with sort of the default starting lineup of the order you drafted guys Javonte Williams unless you did a zero RB build probably your rb3 maybe if you went heavy on RB might even be an rb4 those guys you shouldn't be afraid you know I've been using kind of like Jerome Ford and chuba hubard as these other types of examples like that where now that we're in week one those rankings look different than they did in draft season I think javante is a good example of that where he probably isn't one of the top two running backs a lot of teams drafted again depending on Le format and what your strategy was but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be a starter right away in week one it's a whole different season than it was in August Erikson what do you think of the javante call I like it a lot I think that he offers a really high floor with the amount of volume he's going to get I think that in week one it's okay to played safe with some of these better volume bets again we're going to see a lot of wide receivers that we drafted High just straight out bust in week one because it's just the volatility of the position whereas using running backs in your Flex I think you're locking in more production that way and maybe you're letting your opponents take the risk with some of these high upside wide receivers again it's so easy to make the case for every wide receiver in the upside case it really is but a lot of times you don't talk about well this guy could get two points Javonte Williams feel pretty safe he's gonna probably finish between 10 and 15 fantasy points and then layering in can he score a touchdown okay now we're up to 20 fantasy points with gavon so I think he's a great start as an rb2 or a flex yeah fits I mean Ericson just mentioned the floor with javante there's ceiling too right I mean if he is the preferred Target in the passing game for Shawn Payton and Bo Knicks and if he does get this Workhorse role there I mean the ceiling is there for him to have an rb1 week right off the bat I think and and the other thing too is that Seattle we've talked about a lot this offseason is gonna run a lot more plays this this year with their new coaching staff so that just means theoretically more fantasy points to be scored on both sides because it would mean that Denver is maybe passing more to catch up which could be more catches for Javon absolutely I mean he's kind of game script proof which is nice if if Den uh in a tight game or ahead like he's going to be involved in the running game if they're behind he's going to get a lot of dump off passes or or some at least enough to protect him even if Denver is in sort of a run unfriendly game script and and we do know Jalil mcgloin's gonna be involved too like I I like Jalil also and I've been trying to come out of every draft with one or the other um but yeah javon's upside is is pretty good regardless of what sort of game script the Broncos encounter against the Seahawks Erikson who's your Tee Higgins plant your flag must start of the week going with wide receiver T Higgins for the Cincinnati Bengals facing my New England Patriots Patriots are massive dogs on the road in Cincinnati so this is twofold so you have the Jamar Chase situation going on with his contract the latest update we have was Wednesday he was limited at practice so he was out there but we're not really sure how involved he's going to be still hasn't signed a new contract I think that's going to get done we saw the Bengals do this before the Joe burrow extension they basically signed it right before Thursday night kickoff because they had to take away the attention from the Chiefs they have to make it about the Cincinnati Bengals so I ultimately think that this deal gets done but that still brings up question marks about how muchar Chase will play if he is in game shape because he's missed so much time he hasn't been practicing in Fall throughout the entire preseason for the Bengals so for me that's green lights for T Higgins whether Chase is playing or not if Chase is out there could be more in a decoy role okay that means more targets for T Higgins who is in a contract year he needs to put up numbers this season and when we've seen tens at his best it's when chamar Chase has either missed time or has been limited 2022 a four game stretch with Chase out of the lineup T Higgin averaged almost 19 fantasy points per game so I think in this particular match up against the Patriots I think their defense is not as good as it was last year Christian Gonzalez is coming back from an injury he only played three games as a rookie he's their number one quarterback and he's been up and down in training camp and this has been against going against players Patriots wide receivers when they had the joint practices with the Eagles Christian Gonzalez got burned by AJ Brown and Devonte Smith more of the caliber of who he's going to face against the Cincinnati Bengals so for me I think T Higgins this is a good spot for him the Bengals heavy favorites at home Joe burrow and him have been connecting throughout training camp so I think this is a good spot to play t Higgins I know that he's been drafted kind of as a wide receiver three flex play again looking for receivers with floors and ceilings a good combination I think di Higgins has that this week do you think Erikson you you mentioned the defense for the Patriots they were obviously very good last year do you think that this is going to be a we're going to want to see teams kind of pick on throughout the year or do you just particularly like this match up for Higgins in week one maybe not pick on because you really want defenses that give up a lot of explosive plays and I think that the Patriots will probably still try to play conservative but I don't think it's a defense that you have to avoid where oh no they're playing the Patriots they can't be able to run the football Christian baramore is not playing he's their best defensive tackle and he's on the NFI list that's a that's a massive hole in their interior which was one the best things about their defense last year was the run defense and the other thing is pass rush yes they have some good secondary pieces like Gonzalez but he's still really young and still a little bit raw they don't have a pass rush they just traded away Matt judon I know he didn't play a lot last year but I just don't see a scenario where they are locking down opposing offenses especially losing bill belich as the play caller I know that belich has lost his fast but maybe as a GM head coach but as a defensive play caller I think he can still call it with the best so I think you're going to see that especially early on as J Mayo looks to pick up the slack and try to carry over how good that defense was last year I just don't see it especially against the Bengals the Bengals are on another tier the Bengals are looking at the Super Bowl the Patriots were picking in the top three for a reason Fitz where are you drafting uh or not drafting transitioning to week one mode here still uh where are you ranking T Higgins right now he's in wide receiver three territory but I do have to move him up like I think there is going to be involvement um maybe a limited snap count for Jamar Chase it only makes sense if if he has not been practicing in full so I think Erikson is spot on with this but I am a little concerned that Jamar Chase is going to be jealous that Erikson is now giving attention to T Higgins after Chase has been Erikson's uh 101 all off season I'm a little worried he's gonna feel jilted well no no don't worry they'll make Jamar Jamar CH will catch touchdown they're GNA put him in the Red Zone packages NFL week one is here and a new season means new ways to get in on the action at draftking Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NFL fans have spoken we want to bet on touchdowns DraftKings heard us and is delivering draftking Sportsbook is the number one place to bet touchdowns ready to place your first bet try betting on something simple like picking a player to score a touchdown it all kicks off tonight with the Ravens taking on the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs in Kansas City with the Chiefs laying a field goal at home the Ravens are looking for Revenge after getting upset in Baltimore last January two of the three best quarterbacks in football square off with a total at 47 on draftking that's gone up a little from where it started obviously you'll all be watching this amazing season opener but are you planning to do a touchdown dance of your own new DraftKings customers bet $5 to get $250 in bonus bets instantly plus one month of NFL Plus premium on us download the draftking Sportsbook app and use code fantasy pros that's code fantasy pros for new customers to get $250 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks and get one month of NFL Plus premium on us offer ends September 19th only on draft the crown is yours all right so our kind of must start plant your flag players Javonte Williams and T Higgins let's get into some start set player debates I try RB Debate 1: Jaylen Warren vs. Brian Robinson to find players that were roughly ranked around the same spots in our expert consensus rankings and according to our fantasy Pro Staff rankings so we'll do some running back debates we'll do some wide receiver debates we've also got some quarterback tight end Flex debates as well the first one that I want to throw out here guys Jaylen Warren vers Brian Robinson Jr Brian Robinson is somebody that I was very aggressive ly drafting this summer Warren not as much mostly just because I was a little nervous about the injury and just nervous about who knows what the heck Arthur Smith is GNA want to do on a week in and week out basis but obviously a very talented player and somebody that in the past we've liked quite a bit so Ericson I'll start with you Jaylen Warren vers Brian Robinson who are you starting in week one I absolutely love this debate because Tom staken who I share a ffpc team with he hit me up earlier this week asking about this exact question about should we start Jaylen Warren or Brian Robinson so this one hits very close to home for me and I'm basically just paring what I responded in slack to Tom to me it comes down to Warren and the hamstring injury he's been limited to practice but everything he said he's talked about hey I feel good if they had had a real game during the preseason he would have played so I think I'm okay with the preseason injury the hamstring I think that he's going to be okay whereas Brian Robinson I think that there's a real concern with game script the buccaneer or excuse me the commanders are playing on the road against Tampa Bay against a usually pretty stout run defense Brian Robinson projects to be the early down runner for the commanders it's a shaky offensive line what do we see with bad offensive lines they usually don't travel well on the road so I think Brian Robinson has a very scary floor this week if he doesn't find The End Zone again that was the bullish case on Brian Robinson oh he's gonna get the red zone opportunities well how many points are the Commander's going to score in rookie quarterback's first start on the road I wouldn't be super bullish on this off offense putting up an amazing stat line particularly in week one so for me I'm going to go with Jaylen Warren again the injury if there was no injury this would be easy for me but I think I still lean towards Jaylen Warren he's more involved in the passing game I feel confident that he's going to at least offer a floor as a receiver out of the back field especially with Russell Wilson starting not Justin fields for the Pittsburgh Steelers so for me it's going to be Jaylen Warren Erikson how much do you weigh sort of the historic uh organizational infrastructure of a team like Tampa Bay that like you said they they have been very Stout against the run in recent years defense doesn't always translate year-over-year though it's a new season are you trying to project out what teams you think will be particularly good not just overall but against the run against the pass or are you weighing more heavily we've seen Tampa Bay do this before we know that they are typically good against the Run well I think it goes down to personnel and coaches Todd BS is the guy there that runs the defense so I don't think it's by mistake that their run defense is always good because Todd BS is the head coach defensive coordinator Etc because that's who they draft they invest in defensive tackles so the things that change is during the season you have to pay attention to when guys get hurt because that's when you see massive changes in how good teams are against the Run how good teams are against the pass but traditionally Todd BS has been hey we're gonna stop the run throw all over us that that's the defense that he traditionally plays so until I see something very convincing otherwise and coaches know this too they know that when you play Tampa Bay the game script is not okay let's run ball up the middle it's let's attack these cornerbacks and their secondary is still pretty leaky so that's how I think they would attack go into this game with Cliff Kingsbury they want to showcase Jaden Daniels so I just don't see this as a Brian Robinson game per se versus Jaylen Warren where I know he's gonna be involved they I know they want to run the football even if he's going to split with nii he's gonna catch pass out of the back field so I still feel so much safer about Jaylen Warr Jaylen Warren's floor uh versus Brian Robinson who he could get game scripted out if they fall behind 14 nothing is Brian Robinson on on the field like that's concerning for me Fitz who do you like Warren or Robinson oh look at Erikson plunging head first into the Arthur Smith offense without fear hoping that pool hasn't been drained the night before as he uh you know goes head first off the high dive um yeah so like I I'm going with Brian Robinson here and I expect I do acknowledge um Erikson's point about the Todd balls defense and I have Robinson ranked a little lower than I might otherwise I've got him at rb30 this week um but I I expect Robinson and jayen Daniels to have this symbiotic relationship this year um we know that mobile quarterbacks really Spike the rushing efficiency of their running backs and Jaden Daniels is a very dangerous running quarterback I think that's going to help open up lanes for Brian Robinson and a good running game obviously helped keep the pass rush at Bay by making defenses honor the possibility of the run so um I I think these guys are going to be good for each other this year hopefully we see that right off the bat um yeah with Jaden Daniels making his first NFL start like it would be smart for Cliff kingsburry to protect his Young quarterback by mixing in a healthy dose of running plays so I think whether the run is working or not uh Brian Robinson is going to get double digit carries maybe as many as like 15 18 in this game um and you know as for Warren I I do worry a little bit about the hamstring injury like Mike Tomlin has assured us he's going to be active but we don't know for sure whether he's going to be full go or if he's going to be on sort of a pitch count um we are probably going to see Nai handle most of the rushing load and we might see an annoying amount of Cordo Patterson in the back field for this one so um yeah I'm just a little worried man I'd really rather not start any Pittsburgh Steelers in week one until I see exactly what it looks like with Arthur Smith at the controls let's go to our next running back debate and F I'll start with you RB Debate 2: JK Dobbins vs. Ezekiel Elliott this time JK Dobbins versus Ezekiel Elliott I had a very clear favorite of these two during draft season that was Dobbins because I liked the upside play I thought you know he was going later it was he was going to be an easy cut if he was bad all that stuff but now that we're here playing the games week one I think it's a lot closer something closer to a tossup Dobbins or Elliott who do you like Fitz yeah I like Zeke um there's been this undercurrent uh of Rico dle buzz in the fantasy community over the last week or two and uh I'm not saying that the doubal supporters are necessarily wrong that he's going to have a prominent role but let's face it like Zeke has generated a lot of Goodwill uh in the Cowboys organization I think over the years and like this is a hard backfield to pin down but I am expecting Zeke to out snap and out touch Rico dle in week one as sort of the dean of the Cowboys running back room uh tough match up against the Browns but here's the thing like Zeke might be able to bolster his floor with his pass catching and I know that's not really the first thing we think of with Zeke traditionally but he did have 51 receptions uh in his one season of banishment to New England last year um and I I know that was sort of out of necessity with what the Patriots offense had devolved into last year but I I do think Zeke is going to have a couple of grabs I I just bet him for over 8.5 receiving yards on DraftKings I thought that's a pretty low bar for him to clear um Dobbins is interesting and like I took him in one of my last drafts because I was starting to have some fomo uh worried that you know after largely ignoring this guy because I generally don't like betting on players who well running backs who've had major knee injuries and achilles tears um but like I don't know I I'm what if he is a medical Marvel and can somehow return to like 90% what he had been at Ohio State when he was just this force of nature um so I don't know I'm kind of expecting it to be a dose of both Dobbins and uh Gus Edwards for the Chargers uh maybe I don't know 60% Gus 40% Dobbins to start but I I could be wrong about that bottom line I am expecting Zeke to get more one week one touches I think than JK Dobbins yeah if you if like men and black could do the like brain you know uh washing you forget your memory I don't know what that device is called I haven't seen those movies in a while they're good movies but um if they could do that to you and you just forgot about dobbin's injury history but you still knew this is a running back in this offense and just watching the preseason and like to training camp videos and and reading the reports you would be really excited about dobins right like that is really the only red flag is that injury history and it's a big one we talked about it all August it's a very big red flag but all the current knowledge we have everything we've seen in August and what we've read about and heard it's I think it's reasonable to be really excited these guys are back-to-back in ECR this week by the way rb38 and RB 39 the thing is too Vegas like they did finish the season really strong defensively so maybe that carries over here into week one and you know Herbert was somewhat limited this you know preseason all that stuff Erikson what do you think about this one Zeke versus Dobbins I think it's pretty close as well I think that both running backs are kind of in somewhat similar situations where you have a committee approach we're not really sure how the back fields going to shake out you have D you have Gus Edwards as other players that we expect to see touches in their respective bat Fields you have tough matchups Browns on the road for the C Cowboys are underdogs against the Browns it's not a great matchup the Raiders like you said worm good defense last year we're expecting that to carry over to this season but the Chargers are favorites even though they're playing at home even though they don't really have any home field advantage they are favorite to win so we'll see how that ends up going out but I just like Dobbins because he's a more explosive guy even coming off the Tor Achilles I think that he is bold take JK Dobbins is more explosive than Ezekiel Elliott I there I said it so for me if I'm really not convinced that one guy's gonna get so much more work than the other guy I think I'm G to go with the team that I believe is going to run the football which I think it's going to be the Chargers I think they're going to run more the ball more than the Cowboys will and I think Dobbins can take advantage of a 10 to 15 touch workload better than eika Elliot can and the one thing that has been undersold with Dobbins I think is his potential pass catching because every time in training camp and worm tell me if I'm wrong they would Rave about how good J dos was a pass catcher but we all knew that it was never going to transpire into anything because we know Lamar Jackson doesn't throw to the running backs well now we have a different offense a little bit now with Justin Herbert a not as mobile quarterback coming off a foot injury well maybe we get dump off passes to JK Dobbins for the first time in his NFL career what does that translate into so for me I these Dobbins weeks are precious because we don't know how long sill is going to hold for so I want to take advantage of it it's a good matchup they're at home they're favorites I'm not afraid of Gus Edwards so give me JK do that's a good point on the pass catching I always wondered how much of that was Lamar versus Greg Roman um because there was talk going into last season that mckin was going to throw at Dobbins more and of course we didn't get to see that play out because of how early the injury occurred um but there was that discussion of just the coaching change not a quarterback change would lead to more pass catching for the running backs we'll never know I suppose for sure how exactly that would have worked out if Dobbins was still there since Gus Edwards is fine but he's just not the same pass catcher at least the way they talked about it that Dobbins is WR Debate 1: Tank Dell vs. Terry McLaurin um let's go to a wide receiver debate here tank Dell versus Terry McClaren two guys I was very happy to get in all of my drafts this year Erikson we'll go back to starting with you tank Dell versus Terry McClaren who do you like here I'm gonna go with tank Dell because I just love this offensive environment situation Colts Texans in a dome massive total at 49 and a half points I just think that this is going to be a firework shootout between two AFC South teams and I get that the tank Dell projection the targets we don't know sure how it's going to work out well if CJ Str throws four touchdowns all tank Dell has to do is catch touchdown and boom like you're good to go you don't have to worry about okay what are the targets going to be so for me I I feel like I don't want to overthink this tank Dell is CJ shroud's guy we talked about tank Dell as the great value among the Houston Texans receivers so for me again going back to the commander matchup look they're playing on the road behind the shaky offensive line with a rookie quarterback making his first start I I don't want to for me it's I feel like I don't need to be overly bullish on the commanders what what is it gonna kill me to just wait a week to let J Daniels prove to me hey he's ready he's ready to go in the NFL like I I I don't feel like I need to have to force in these commanders players in a matchup that is not ideal I would say for the most part yes McClaren projects as the target lead meter so I think he does offer a floor here but I think the ceiling play is still tank Dell because what if tank Dell is the number one receiver for the Texans what if he gets the favorable matchups with all these other receivers because if the Texans are going to score 35 points well chances are he's going to bring one if not two receivers with him and one of those guys could easily be tanked out whereas McLaren okay five for 50 great are you are you crazy about that you love with that okay it's okay but I think tank Dell is the higher ceiling so I'm going to go with Dell in this explosive matchup you mentioned the main Counterpoint I was going to make which is we're reasonably certain Terry McClaren is going to lead the steam in targets we're less certain what it's going to look like with Dell so maybe that's the offense that I more want to wait and see which of the receivers I want to rank aggressively especially if I like another guy like I do like mclen fits what do you think about Dell versus McLaren yeah I've got to battle with Erikson again here because I see this as Target ambiguity versus Target certainty and like tank Dell is a really fun player um just so difficult to cover and certainly capable of uh making a couple Splash plays that really ring the bell for his fantasy managers but Del is the number three receiver for the Texans uh he has to share targets with Stefan Diggs and Nico Collins tankel probably isn't even going to be on the field when the Houston Texans are in two wide receiver sets muren on the other hand is the Undisputed go-to receiver for the commanders uh four straight Seasons with a thousand or more receiving yards four straight Seasons with 77 or more catches and now he gets to play with Jaden Daniels the best quarterback he'll have ever played with in the NFL um mclen has managed to produce while playing with the likes of Kyle Allen and Carson Wentz and Taylor hinek and Sam Howell I'm really excited about McLaren for this season and I I know they're going to be bumps for Jaden Daniels as there are for pretty much uh all rookie quarterbacks but the upside is really alluring here and uh you know I feel pretty good that mclen is g to get a minimum of like seven or eight Targets this week and I could see tank tank Dell getting three or four you know maybe maybe he gets more than that he could get eight or nine targets but like the target distribution for the Texans if all three of these receivers are healthy is going to be really hard to pin down week to week Fitz do you kind of the way Ericson framed it do you also see Dell as more of a ceiling play and and McClaren is the floor or do you see sealing with McClaren this week in particular as well yeah I mean I I think I think safety is is the more appealing thing with McLaren that that you're going to get a good floor because I think he is going to get those eight or nine targets and four or five catches um yeah andell I just think like the range of outcomes is all over the place could have a huge game could be virtually a WR Debate 2: Courtland Sutton vs. Josh Palmer non-factor Erikson let's go to the next debate here courland Sutton your guy uh versus Josh Palmer somebody I really liked this off season what do you think here so for me it's Josh Palmer because I think that both guys project as their number one wide receivers at least in week one I'm going to take Josh Palmer over lad mccon we'll see how that goes throughout the season long targets but that's that's Justin Herbert's guy that's the only guy that has chemistry with Justin Herbert dating back the last couple years L mongi is a rookie making his first NFL start this week so then when I look at the matchup specifically looking at Seattle what about this matchup with Denver facing the Seahawks who have strong perimeter quarterbacks fifth fewest points allowed to Perimeter receivers last season screams Shawn Payne's gonna go in and be like we need to feed courtand Sutton this week against Seahawks on the road that doesn't make any sense to me so we talked about liking javante a ton I think they're going to feed the running backs feed the running backs feed the tight ends to me this seems hey C Su like go out there you got paid this isn't your weak man we're we're not going to force you target especially with a guy like Sutton who not really winning with ation at this point in his career a little bit more of a contested catch guy wins with Slants over the MD so he can do enough but I just don't think this is a Sut week whereas Josh Palmer look at the Raider the Raiders are starting Jack Jones and jakorian Bennett at cornerback Jack Jones the former Patriots castoff is starting for the Raiders at cornerback I think the perimeter matchups is so much better for Josh Palmer I think that he likes and projects to be the number one receiver over the at least in week one so I think it's it's Josh Palmer for me I think he has more upside again we're going back to the Chargers are fav to win this game the Denver Broncos are not they are favored to lose against the Seahawks on the road that's a more hostile environment in my opinion than a nice comfy Dome at home for the charters and Justin Herbert so he's got the better quarterback he's got the better matchup it's Josh Palmer for me the one thing I will say on the matchup is Mike McDonald when he was defensive coordinator in Baltimore it took several weeks before that defense to sort of coales and figure it out it is a very complicated defense it is a defense where if you don't know it like the back of your hand you can be prone to breakdowns in the secondary we saw that if you remember that huge game for Tua in that Dolphins Ravens game in week two a couple of years ago that was right when Mike MCD McDonald was starting and and fans of Baltimore were like very against this guy and he was like we're just figuring it out it's going to take some time to sort of get this defense on the same page it really wasn't until they added ran Smith that it became this Elite like death star of a defense and they don't have a ran Smith in Seattle it's week one the the secondary pieces are very talented but they're younger so maybe they don't pick it up immediately this brand new defensive scheme and thought so I I'm very bullish on the Seahawks in general this year and I bullish on the defense long term I'm a little hesitant to assume this is going to be a very good defense right off the bat I'm wondering if it might takes if it might take a while it might be a defense that we can take advantage of in fantasy early on as people don't adjust to that because they just see Mike McDonald and assume it's going to be good I know you were talking more about the players in the secondary than than McDonald in general but that's something that's kind kind of in the back of my mind with these early weeks Fitz do you like courand Su I think sorry I think that I agree with that that there's definitely an opportunity I just don't think that cland Sutton is the guy that would take advantage of that in this particular mat that's the only thing like there I think there will be holes and turn matchups with the Raven or excuse me with the Seattle Seahawks but I think it's more about the running backs like how great is this run defense going to be for the Seahawks so that's kind of where and you you brought up the Miami Dolphins example I mean courland sun doesn't fit what Miami Dolphins do with speed maybe Marvin Mims breaks a long one that's that's what I would I would I would be more I'd be less surprised if we saw Marvin Mims break off an ADR touchdown because there's a miscommunication in the secondary I would expect that more than oh courton Sutton because Sutton needs targets he needs volume I think to be successful so I just wanted to to say that no that's fair Fitz what do you think about this one Sutton vers Palmer yeah about those Raiders quarterbacks Ericson um so Chargers rookie offensive tackle Joe alt is making his NFL debut and his assignment is to try to block Max Crosby in week one so uh Jack Jones might only have to stay with Josh Palmer for a second or two before Crosby is knocking Justin Herbert to the ground um no we are in pretty murky territory with this one I think and like I've got Sutton like 10 spots ahead of Josh Palmer in my rankings and I'm gonna have to fix that because I I think this is a much closer call than that um it it feels like Sutton has been sort of underrated throughout Fantasy Draft season but a bon Nick Su courland Sutton pairing just something about that doesn't feel right like courtand Sutton I don't know this this pairing is like fish and cheese or or steak and and white wine um like Sut is this go up and get it receiver this contested catch guy just like it doesn't matter if he's covered just throw it up to him um and nicks is this ball control passer who I think wants like timing routes and so don't know how it's going to work with courland Sutton yes he's the seemingly Undisputed number one receiver for the Broncos but like I don't know if that is going to equate to a thousand yard season um and I'm worried that I didn't take enough of Josh Palmer this summer in drafts I I don't it's very possible that the Chargers lead receiver this year is Palmer albe it in a very runhe heavy offense but um you know I mean there's something to be said for for being Justin Herbert's lead receiver so maybe I don't have Josh Palmer high enough um I I do have this gap between the two of them I'm going to say Sutton but like I I do not have any confidence in that call Erikson just quickly what do you think of Sutton for the full season not in this matchup in particular um because because I think to Fitz's point about him being undervalued I don't know that we said his name once on any offseason show like he was just very under discusted I think um so what do you think about courin Sutton this year I think that he's probably more of a bi-week filling type of player where throughout his NFL career he hasn't really flashed that immense ceiling and even though I was really high on a couple years ago when they landed Russell Wilson that never transpired we really haven't seen him be a top 20 guy I don't think ever in fantasy I mean think about it last year he scored 10 touchdowns and wasn't even a wide receiver too so if his touchdowns come down then what are you really winning with suton I think from a bye-week standpoint yes he's going to be perfect to fill in give you some production as a wide three but I don't know how high the ceiling is on a week- toe basis with a rookie quarterback who when you just talk about what type of receiver works best for B Knicks B Nick's number one receiver at Oregon was Troy Franklin who looks nothing like courin Sutton at all so Shawn pyton likes something because he's big that like that's he likes Josh reyolds because he's big and he can block that's why they like these receivers so yes he is the number one but what does the number one rece on the Denver Broncos led by B Knicks really translate into and it's probably not that many fantasy points when it comes down to especially on a weekly Spike perspective man do I love watching football live there's nothing in the world quite like walking into the stadium after an awesome tailgate in that crisp refreshing fall weather I haven't been able to make it out to a Broncos game since moving to Denver but I plan to change that this year and when I do you know I'll be getting those tickets from game time they've got a new feature called Game Time picks that makes getting tickets to see your favorite teams play Live even easier it filters out the fluff to show you only incredible deals on great seats so you don't waste any time searching through hundreds or even thousands of tickets the curations make it easier to save more on Not Just Sports but concerts comedy theater and more two other features that I love for how much it takes the frustration out of ticket buying are game time seat views showing your view from the seat before you buy and Allin pricing so I know the total upfront with no hidden fees game time is simple to use but more importantly the app gives gives me all the information I need to make an easy ticket purchase so take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code fantasy pros for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again create an account and redeem code f n t y p Ros for $20 off download game time today what time is it game time all right RB: Jaleel McLaughlin vs. Rico Dowdle let's go to some quicker start sit decisions here we'll do another running back one Jalia mlin we've already talked about javante and really this whole Broncos offense but juli mlin versus Rico Dow Fitz we'll start with you I'll take the ncaa's all-time leading rusher please jul mlin um pass catching upside really popped last year uh as an undrafted free agent and in somewhat limited action but he is the clear number two for Denver and Shawn pton always uses more than one back we've seen fantasy relevance from multiple running backs in Payton's offenses uh especially during his time with the Saints where there'd be as many as three fantasy r guys this year I think it's javante and Jalil I'll take mlin over dle what side are you taking Erikson in hedge so PPR going mlin but in half PPR with the touchdowns are weighed more heavily because I just don't know what the touchdown upside with mcgoffin is because I think that he might be third in the pecking order behind gavon and potentially audri EST who they also featured in The Red Zone a little bit during the preseason so for me in half PPR I would go and take the plunge on Oro D because again I I like out more than Zeke in draft season I think that he will be the Cowboys RB one that's where I disagree a little bit with Fitz but I understand he definitely comes with a much shakier floor in case oh they get a three-way committee with Dalvin cook also involved Zeke and dle and D's just rushing him between the 20s and Zeke is getting the third down snaps getting the Red Zone snaps and then you're left holding the bag with that thinking oh my God what happened so that's why perhap pprr still think he has touchdown upside plays the Cowboys offense where think he's going to score more points than Denver even um even though both teams are playing on the road so but mlin I think the floor is just too high especially you know full WR: Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Christian Watson PPR fits at wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr versus Christian Watson who do you like Christian Watson two big fast guys give me the guy who we've seen before and who we've seen score touchdowns in bunches and uh like I know people are worried about how the targets are divided with the Green Bay receivers but when Watson has shared a field with Jaden Reed and with Romeo do Watson has had the highest Target sh and it's been north of 25% so I think he's going to get his targets and uh you know both of these guys have really appealing big play Upside but I think Watson's big play credentials are a little bit better established Ericson you've been very in on Brian Thomas Jr during draft season are you also in on him in week one over Watson 100% I I like Brian th I think this Brian Thomas week the week one breakout is coming here they're playing the Miami Dolphins another that I absolutely love bet the over shootout potential in Miami it's him versus Gabe Davis for perimeter Targets on the outside he's taking over the Calvin Ridley role Calvin Ridley had the one of the best roles for Fantasy but he couldn't catch the ball last year or stay in bounds in the red zone or in the end zone so Brian Thomas I think you make just as big as many big plays as Christian Watson G we saw it at LSU scored the most touchdowns of 20 plus air yards and one of the teams that wants to air the ball out is the Jacksonville Jaguars so I just again going to the matchup that's kind of the coin flip or the ultimate decision because both guys are super explosive but I just think this Dolphins Jaguars game could go absolutely Bonkers where the Eagles Packers there's a lot of weirdness about this game it's being played in Brazil just adding in layers of uncertainty and I think that the path to targets is potentially a little bit tougher for Christian Watson at least in week one with all those Packers receivers healthy where briyan Thomas has a starting role as the ex receiver opposite Gabe Davis I don't know if he'll be super productive this week week but I know he's going to out Target Gabe Davis because Gabe Davis can't command targets I know I'm wearing his jersey I say you're wearing his jersey yes because it's a bit because he still can't command targets all right let's go to uh some Flex: Raheem Mostert vs. George Pickens Flex debates here uh sort to do running back first receiver even though you can tend to start tight ends and flex as well generally you want to do running back or wide receiver first one Raheem Moser versus George Pickins Erikson what do you think about that one so I'm compiling my list of my season long Fades that will make me feel dumb after week one and rahee moer is probably at the top of the list because look he's healthy he's still starting running back for Miami Dolphins so yeah I just talked about how much I like this Jaguars Dolphins game you got to start re moer while he's healthy while he's upright while he's still the rb1 for the Miami Dolphins and I look I'm willing to take the plunge on the running backs for the Steelers team not the receivers not George Pickins not this week again we're gonna get headlines after week one George Pickins guys I don't know you want to do I can't control where the ball goes I I could see this being a George Pickins week two is going to be the George Pickins squeaky wheel game so we'll talk about him next week but if he's gonna be facing AJ Terrell they want to run the football they're playing on the road this is not a good spot for George Pickins he's going to be volatile all year long up and down production just like he was last year so I would wait and see with George Pickins just play moster the running back in a great matchup yeah the the ringer guys have been all over this this summer like is there any player you're going to feel Dumber for having faded after week one if moer does exactly what he did all last year and has like 80 yards and two touchdowns in week one it's going to be like why did we let him fall to like the 80s in every draft um which that's why I wanted to include him here honestly is because like again he's somebody we didn't really talk about all that much this offseason all the talk about Devon Anan who I know Fitz is very high on um mostard was so good last year and um I could feel a little dumb uh at the end of week one if he looks like he did last year Fitz I know you are an HM guy are you picking Pickins in that case over moster this week fin Ericson and I are on the same page I'm taking Raheem moard um yeah I don't expect him to score 21 more touchdowns but I do think the touchdown Outlook is still pretty bright for him this year as long as he can stay healthy and he's healthy right now so uh yeah I I kind of expect a highs scoring game we saw that the Dolphins Chargers produce 70 points in week one of last year Dolphins won that one 3634 uh I think we're going to see points in in Dolphins Jags and uh you know good good outlook for mostard I think in anytime touchdown bet could pay off here and I want to monitor this uh Steelers offense from afar for week one I totally agree with you on that one um yeah I mean he could he could regress to cutting his touchdowns in half this season and he's still double digits like that's how many he had last year so uh yeah we are all in agreement on that one how about David Montgomery vers Stefan Flex: David Montgomery vs. Stefon Diggs Diggs Fitz will start with you really tough call I'm going to go with Diggs here um last year when we sort of saw the running back usage normalize for the Lions after Montgomery came back from that mid-season rib injury he averaged about I don't know 13 14 carries a game I I think that's probably where he lands this year but it's not going to be like heavy doses of of you know he's not gonna the the first four games of 2023 David Montgomery average 22 carries a game we are not seeing that kind of usage this year uh the jir Gibbs Genie is out of the bottle so we're not going to see Montgomery much in the passing game either um I feel like they're going to want to integrate Diggs in the Texans offense right away um I I could see a double digit Target game for Diggs so I'm gonna go with him over Monty Erikson what do you think on this one I'm playing Montgomery because I think again I disagree with Fitz where I think we're gonna get something similar to Montgomery to start the year like we did last year and I think it's going to be exact same thing where oh my God why did I draft Gibb so high would I David Montgomery and it's not because Gibbs isn't talented it's because he's been hurt all preseason all training camp and all the reports I read about that was they were integrating this new role for him but to temper expectations to open the year because he hasn't been there they haven't been able to integrate his new role into the offense so what are they going to do against the Rams without Aaron Donald is pound the rock with the best offensive line with Dave Montgomery so I think it's going to be it's gonna be the Spider-Man meme where we did it last year we drafted gives really high faded Dave Montgomery and then we W watch week one Dave Montgomery scores two more touchdowns leads the team in rushing again and we're like why did we do this to ourselves again so I would take advantage I think Dave mcgomery is gonna be very productive to start the year Gibbs maybe not so much but not to say Gibbs is going to be bad the entire season I think that his production will pick up as he gets more integrated like when he's fully healthy so that's just the way that I'm viewing that backfield Fitz zamir white or Xavier worthy zamir I just think he's Flex: Zamir White vs. Xavier Worthy safer like we know the Raiders want to run the ball a lot and they did down the stretch with zamir white so while I don't really think there's much pass catching upside with zamir I think there's a good chance he gets close to 20 carries by the way Fitz you got in my head the other day with like Xavier versus Xavier worthy and now every time I start to read his name I like almost stumble over it even though I'm like reasonably sure it is just Xavier uh you got in my head that Erikson worthy or what I will take the record holder of the fastest 40R Dash rookie receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs who will not be named because I don't know if it's I don't know how to pronounce it either so I'm not gonna take that I believe it's Xavier but Fitz was asking on the other show about like just in general how do you pronounce that name Xavier or exsavior and now I just every time I read it it's in the back of my mind so yeah thank you again to I'm going with worthy zamir white just scares me from a game script what if the Raiders fall down 10 nothing because g m throws a pick six is zir white on the field anymore if he doesn't catch passes so I just I don't think his workload is secure as some of these other running backs we've talked about talked about Brian Robinson I have concerns about the game script with him so I definitely have concerns about Samir white and his potential game script so I'm G to take the upside with the flashy rookie Maris Brown's not playing so I think that they're ready to go with Xavier worthy and he can get deliver on one play he could get more fantasy points on one play than zamir white could get on 20 touches I don't think you're wrong I think I think the CH like it's so weird to say that but you're not wrong I think the Chiefs do want to come out and like kind of unleash worthy right off the bat and be like look at this fun new toy we have like I I I think they they are really excited about this fun new toy they got for Patrick Mahomes and I think Patrick Mahomes wants to play with his new toy on a big stage like I think they're gonna really kind of want to unleash him and take a shot or two downfield with him um and run up some design plays for him I think that's going to be the plan tonight uh again as you keep bringing up targeting Nate Wiggins even though I think Wiggins is quite good uh one more Flex here chuba Flex: Chuba Hubbard vs. Calvin Ridley hubard vers Calvin Ridley a an eye openening debate if you look at the draft rankings but here we are week one again this is one of those names I mentioned earlier like now that you're you're in week one don't think so much about the draft rankings Juba hubard is starting running back for Carolina um so that that carries a lot more weight than it did maybe in draft season when we you know think he's not going to be started the whole season Erikson hubard or Ridley who do you like this one I'm going to go with the running back chuba hubber I think that he's going going to be a Bell cow I am not afraid of the Saints team whatsoever I think that they're going to feature hubard a ton I think it doesn't matter what the game scriptives because he's involved in the passing game and as an early down rusher I think that the Panthers offense is gonna be improved with Dave Canalis calling the shots Canalis is familiar with Dennis Allen the Saints defense he played against them twice last year as part of the Buccaneers offense so I think hubbert's the guy and with Ridley on the road against a really good Bears defense behind a shaky offensive line with the will Levis sack machine Boyd's there DeAndre Hopkins is there this to me seems like R is going to have up games this doesn't seem like that kind of game for him this seems like a down game for Calvin Ridley so I'm gonna take the touches with hubard yeah Erikson said this well I want I want to monitor uh the Titans are another offense I want to monitor from afar early in the season and um chuba should have something close to Workhorse usage he he played a lot more than my Sanders with the starters in the preseason for the Panthers and I think the saints were like 23rd in dvoa against the run last year let's do a quarterback one here and QB: Geno Smith vs. Justin Herbert it's more along the lines of if you're maybe in the superflex or if you really just waited on quarterback and kind of got stuck with some later round guys because I felt like in a 1qb league the starters are fairly obvious so I wanted to look kind of in a deeper format with the quarterback spot uh Gino Smith vers Justin Herbert Fitz what would you do here Herbert snap call Erikson I'm taking Gino Smith I really like Gino this year and and I kind I kind of think he might come out firing from the I I mean again I love the offensive coordinator change um I love the weapons he has I I'm kind of all in on you know I was very in on Herbert early the foot injury does have me a little bit concerned um I'm less concerned about the offense that he's in I think they'll throw enough they they never you know Greg Roman has never had an arm as talented as as Justin Herber but I kind of like Gino Smith a lot this season and I also think the game environment I mean we talked about how we like the Broncos running backs this week I just think that the Broncos have a better chance of pushing Seattle than the Raiders do to push the Chargers the Raiders don't want to push anybody they just want to run the ball that's what they want to do play thing I I agree the thing is too though like I think Seattle this year like you can't think of them as a Pete Carol team anymore like I think they're going to want to push the ball regardless of what the game stript is like I think that's going to be their identity is we have three good receivers we have a quarterback we like we have an offensive coordinator that likes to air it out like I think that's going to be their identity this year I I I'm all in on all the Seahawks players quite honestly um tight end Erikson Brock Bowers versus tesm Hill can't believe we TE: Brock Bowers vs. Taysom Hill brought this question up amazing debate to end the show for me it's uh it's TM Hill because we're hoping Brock bers gets anything close to tesm Hill level usage with the Las Vas biggest Raiders look Hill was listed as the tight end one on the dep chart just recently Jaan Johnson's listed behind fos Maro he's coming off the injury so I don't know what his role is going to be in this offense there's one guy that Dennis Allen likes on his team and his name is Tamm Hill so he's the head coach he's the one that is in charge of who gets the ball and last time Hill played the Carolina Panthers he had 75 rushing yards in week two so I'm Gonna Roll the Dice of Tamm Hill yeah I mean what's more likely Tamm Hill gets a rushing touchdown or a rookie tight end in his first career game with a four quarterback situ foot injury he's been dealing with as well yeah I yeah I mean it's it seems ridiculous to ask but that's why I wanted to ask it Fitz you've been kind of on Brock Bower's Corner this whole off season do you like him over Tamm Hill in week one I do like him over Tamm Hill in week one worm and with I say this with the caveat that I think the over on 15.5 rushing yards for Tamm Hill is the best bet of the week as Erikson pointed out I mean the the Panthers uh he had a season High 75 rushing yards against the Panthers in his one game against them last year and the Panthers were dead last in dvoa against the run but I mean Brock Bowers is the best tight end Prospect to ever enter the NFL and he is going to be used all over the place uh they're going to line him up out wide in line in the slot in the back field um I know the foot injury is a little concerning but I I think he's going to be good to go and he is going to announce his presence with authority in week one based on consensus rankings I wouldn't be surprised if I end up asking about tesm Hill a lot in this segment on the show during the season because he's just going to be an interesting guy to talk about each week depending on how they use him since this is a start sit show I just want to remind everybody to say goodbye to start sit dilemas with fantasy Pro start sit assistant within seconds you'll know exactly who to play for optimal results each week leveraging insights from numerous experts the start C assistant aligns your lineup decisions with the top Minds in fantasy football giving you a Competitive Edge maximize your lineup's potential with just a few clicks head to fantasypros.com myplaybook and make winning decisions in RB: Zack Moss no time all right guys we'll get out of here with the touchdown calls contest this is how we're going to end the show every single week make sure you head to Discord and participate in this contest Kelly does a great job running this along with mayor on the fantasy pros fantasy Pro Discord side there is a TD calls channel so you can hop in there you can fill out your own Google form uh each every week and try and win some really cool prizes the way we want to do it on the show is we're going to do one running back one wide receiver and one tight end and we are going to rotate who takes what position each week so for this week Erikson will have a running back Fitz will have a receiver I will have a tight end and by the way in the actual contest you cannot repeat names we might not sick to that on the show it's going to be kind of tricky with us rotating who's picking what position each week to remember what's been picked all the time so we'll be lenient about that on the show but for the actual contest you only get guy each guy once we'll try and think of it through that frame of mind when we are doing this on the show Erikson who is your running back for this week's touchdown calls contest it's uh Bengals rb1 at least for this week Zach Moss because I don't know how many opportunities he's gonna get to be in such a smash spot for the Bengals at home against the Patriots without Chris baramore I think that Zach Moss he can fall in the end zone once or twice so I'm gonna go with Zach Moss because I don't know how many weeks we're gonna get with him with this touchdown upside between Higgins and Moss you're really picking on the Patriots here am I wrong no uh Fitz who's your WR: Mike Evans receiver if you start off in a game of horse you do not start off with a baseline three-pointer or a halfcourt shot you start off with a layup I'm going to take a layup here it's Mike Evans against the Washington commanders I mean Evans is a touchdown machine uh the the commanders probably have the worst group of quarterbacks in the NFL and they gave up a league High 39 touchdown passes last year I think Evans gets into the end zone in week one this isn't a Survivor contest you're allowed to get one wrong and obviously keep play throughout the year but it's kind of that Survivor contest mentality of like everybody tries to pick the team that oh they have a good matchup but they're actually bad we just don't want to have to pick them again and you we want to save the good teams sometimes it's smart to just take the good teams and let everybody else kind of make mistakes and and get themselves out and that's kind of what you're doing you know in a different version of that with Mike Evans here um for me at tight end Trey TE: Trey McBride McBride um I was on him all offseason as one of my favorite T he was basically my favorite tight ended draft where he was going in drafts um at Cost he was he was easily my favorite value at the position this year I think it's a good matchup against the banged up bills defense so I'm really excited about that I think I think the Cardinals are going to come out very explosive this this season and I'm just really buying in on the elite players in this offense and so I want to kind of start off really strong with a tight end that I believed in pretty much more than anybody else this whole season uh in terms of the other tight ends not that I was uh the analysts who believed in him more than anybody else because that would be Debo um but I really just love McBride this year and I love this offense and I love the matchup so I figured would go with him so our three guys Zach Moss at running back Mike Evans at receiver Trey McBride at tight end Erikson any final thoughts just heading I mean just heading into the season I mean again we said at the top of the show I'm just super excited I think it's gonna be an awesome season honestly there's so many fun storylines there's a threee there's all these young quarterbacks there's all these established quarterbacks who are trying to take down momes I I just think it's going to be an awesome year we're GNA see a lot of rookie wide receivers break out in week one fits any other final week one thoughts yeah uh for a few more hours I'm right about everything and I'm going to savor that until while you can I look like a complete fool uh you know within a couple days time all right we'll get out of here on that pleasant note for ericon and Fitz I'm Ryan warmley thank you everybody for tuning in we'll see you guys next Thursday