10 MUST Start Players | High-Upside Fantasy Football Picks for Week 1 (2024)

Introduction welcome back to the fanty pros YouTube channel my name is Derrick Brown and on today's video we are going to discuss 10 players that I wrote up in the week one primer on fantasypros.com that are going to shall we say outplay their current ranking in ECR on fantasy pros all of these picks made in this video are based on all the research that I did this week and will'll be doing every single week in the NFL season for the primer I'm covering every game getting deep into the weeds to give you the edge you need to win all your fantasy matchups every week in the primer I'm going to run through who you should start who you should sit who you should flex and maybe who you should fade in all hopes of you're going to win all of your matchups I want you to make the best informed decisions that you can with your lineups every single week so please head to fantasypros.com and read the primer right now all right first player Javonte Williams up on the list here and actually I'm going to give give you a two pack a twof fur with this two guys in the same backfield let's talk about javante Williams and J moffen this week I think they're going to come screaming out the gate you're looking at the matchup and the Seattle Seahawks were one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last year they gave the second most rushing yards per game and the third highest explosive run rate now we're talking about both of these Backs play different roles in the backfield javante taking most of the early down stuff Jalil going to mix in on passing Downs and even the passing down match up is fantastic for Julian mlin Seattle also last year gave the 10th highest yards per reception to running backs and the ninth most receiving yards two backs so what are we talking about we've seen in Ashan Payton offense two backs smashing in the same year I'm telling you it can happen in the same game look at both of these guys to severely massively outplay their rankings on fantasy pros right now all Aaron Jones right next player up I got to discuss here Aaron Jones and his ranking on fantasy pros is not Blasphemous he's the rb20 but I'm telling you this week he could flirt with rb1 numbers for a player that what are you talking about when he was healthy last year he showed the same ability the same juice we've always loved that of Aaron Jones weeks 15 through 20 last year averaging almost 22 touches per game 120 total yards per game and so we think in week one Aaron Jones is healthy and now he gets to face one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last year that did pretty much nothing and know you're saying okay well they got Brian Burns Brian Burns is not known for his run defense they did pretty much nothing to upgrade this run defense last year for a Giants run defense that allowed the second highest explosive run rate last year and the fourth most rushing yarts per game don't be surprised if Aaron Jones walks out of week one with rb1 numbers and you are licking your chops that you started him Christian Kirk all right moving over to wide receivers next player we got to mention here is Christian Kirk now currently on fantasy pros he's the wide receiver 33 I'm telling you I think he could be a strong wide receiver 2 in week one and this all comes down to the matchup and yes Christian Kirk practicing at full we think he's healthy I know the calf injury was a little bit of concern walking into week one but that's in the rear view now baby we're going to talk about the match up the matchup is fantastic for Christian Kirk one high total game we think this game is going to explode so who is going to pop off in this game I'm telling you Christian Kirk is going to have a monster game we're looking at a Miami past defense that last year allowed the seventh most receptions and the seventh highest PPR points per Target to opposing slot white receivers okay that's not good at any way you slice it now you look at their slot Corner who same player from last year allowed an 84% catch rate and a 132 pass rating in coverage this all leads to Christian Kirk right now is being ranked as the wide receiver 33 on fantasypros.com he can produce wide receiver 2 high-end wide receiver 2 numbers in week one get them into your lineups okay the next wide receiver we have to mention here and I'm I've already been forecasting a huge second-year break out for this player so let's get him in the lineups in week one Jackson Smith and jiga Tyler Lockett is already banged up walking into week one when we're you're possibly watching this maybe he's ruled out we don't know I don't care if Tower Lockett plays or he doesn't play but just mentioning him because if he is out we're talking about the Seattle passing attack is even more condensed than what it probably already is right now if Lockett plays but Jackson Smith and jigo we go back to the matchup and Denver last year had the 11th highest single high usage in the NFL almost 56% of their defensive snaps why does this matter when we saw Jackson Smith and chiga aligned outside and not used as a screen Merchant in the Seattle passing attack he was awesome 28% Target per route run rate almost 2.0 yards per route run this all leads us back to we believe in the talent I'm telling you to believe in the matchup for Jackson Smith and jiga and you should believe you should get him into your lineups this week all right before we break into the top five of this list for week one again if you if you were in draft season and you drafted a ton of teams and you're now juggling multiple fantasy teams and multiple leagues and you're feeling just a tad bit overwhelmed I'm telling you that it doesn't have to be that way you could simplify things today with the help of fantasy Pros with the use of our multi- league assistant you could see the latest news notes rankings for every player across all of your teams all of them all in one spot to make your path to Victory clear and easy and that's what we all want so dive in and let us help you dominate all of your leagues right now with the multi League assistant at fantasypros.com my Playbook or on the fantasy football my playbook app download it today all right breaking Rico Dowdle into the top top five of this list of players that look if you're reading the primer you got to get into the lineups or at least consider them because the upside is immense next player I got to talk about here is Rico Dow and then you're saying oh Ezekiel Elliott's there and now dvin cook is in town and I don't know what to do with Rico Dow I'm telling you he could be a amazing flex play this week for you he's the RB 39 on fantasypros.com he can massively outproduce that if I were to tell you we walk out of week one and Rico da leads the way and he gets 15 touches in this backfield and he scores once would you be that surprised considering the AARP running backs that he is flanked by right now are you really shouldn't because last year amongst 53 qualifying backs Rico D showed in the small sample that he got talent baby 16th in yards of to contact PR attempt and yes the Browns are not an easy defense they're not a cakewalk but a lot of that strength comes via the passing game if you look at what they did as a run defense last year they can be had this run defense for Cleveland the highest exposive run rate the highest Miss tackles allowed per attempt and the second highest yards of the contact per attempt so even if Rico dle doesn't get 20 touches in this game if he gets 15 maybe he rattles on 60 70 yards and he gets into the end zone you're going to be happy that you started him in week one okay next player DeMario Douglas we have to mention here and going back to the wide receivers I'm going to tell you a player that's going to pardon the dad pun pop off in week one that is pop Douglas come on down baby and what we saw him as a starter in this New England offense and I know you're saying to yourself it's gross I don't want any part of this offense pop show that he could play last year he's a talented wide receiver and so we're ranking him right now on fantasypros.com as the wide receiver 61 I won't be shocked if he's a strong wide receiver three this week and this comes down to not only did he show that he could command targets because when he was a starter in the offense almost a 21% Target share led the team with almost a 25% first read share but the matchup is also awesome here you have a Cincinnati Bengals secondary that last year allowed the third most receiving touchdowns to opposing slot wide receivers and the fifth highest PPR points per Target so while it might seem gross on the surface I'm telling you look I'm diving deep into the Weeds on the primer every single week to give you this type of edge to tell you like a player de Mario Douglas needs to be in consideration and he can produce massively for your teams in week one all Joshua Palmer right going from one ambiguous passing game to another another one that people don't really know what to do with and don't know if they should be investing in it I'm going to tell you that Josh Palmer is going to outplay his ranking in week one currently the wide receiver 47 on fantasypros.com and this comes down to the matchup is amazing and he is the wide receiver one for the Los Angeles Chargers this year you look at what this secondary did after Antonio Pierce became the Raiders head coach last year single high usage that coverage show they used on almost 56% of their snaps why does this matter because Josh Palmer lit it on fire when he faced it last year had a 21% Target per route run rate 2.22 yards per route run these are both glittering metrics on a per route basis for Josh Palmer if he's the wide receiver one which I'm projecting for the Chargers this week I know that the passing volume we all have concerns but Justin Herbert can be efficient and Joshua Palmer is the one that probably going to get the downfield looks so even if he gets five or six targets if he takes one of them for 40 or 50 yards and scores he's going to pay off this week in fantasy okay we've talked about running Geno Smith backs we've talked about wide receivers let's get over to the quarterback and tight end position to conclude these 10 players that I think are going to smash in week one based off of all my analysis and the primer and the next guy we have to mention we got to talk about is Gino Smith chef Gino is the only cook in the kitchen for quarterbacks we got to talk about this week cuz I think he's going to crush qb9 on fantasypros.com right now and I think he could be or at least close to or flirt with qb1 numbers and this is not only the matchup but Chef Gino's Talent what do we see for him last year in a clean pocket which he didn't get much of those last year because he faced the seventh highest pressure rate in a clean pocket Gino was still awesome last year he was eighth in yards per attemp attempt and at the fifth highest passing grade from clean pockets and you're saying how many of those does he get versus Denver hopefully a lot versus a defense that had the fourth lowest pressure rate in the NFL last season so Gino Smith awesome and clean Pockets going to get him in Denver and now outside of Patrick ceran who I know just got the bag outside of him in the secondary who are you scared of for a past defense that really didn't get any kind of overhaul during throughout the offseason maybe losing just in Simmons doesn't help them either but this secondary last year gave up the seventh highest yards per attempt and the fifth most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this all leads us back to if I believe in Jackson Smith and jiga is going to pop off in week one I believe in his quarterback as well Gino Smith is going to cook in week one especially in super flax formats and you're like oh which qb2 do I play is it will Lis is it Gino Smith this week or is it somebody else going down the barrel it is Gino Smith get him into your lineups right now okay final player Jonnu Smith we got a mention here and look I'm going down the well here because if you got Kyle pittz or you got another tight end that you're kind of worried about maybe it's kle Kit maybe it's Dalton Schultz maybe it's somebody on that Titan one Fringe and you don't know whether to start them or what to do with them or maybe it's Pat FR I'm going to tell you to pick up and start this week Janu Smith currently the tight end 23 on fantasypros.com and why am I so high on Janu cuz look we know the talent and the ability the athletic ability has been there it's always been there for John O Smith for a player amongst 43 qualifying tight ends last season was 11th in yards per route run Fifth and Miss tackles fours per reception so we know that raw talent is there now you put him with one of the sharpest if not maybe the sharpest play caller and yes I'm looking at you Mike McDaniel and Kyle shanan but look former San Francisco coordinator might look the pupil could have become the teacher now and what are we talking about with Mike McDaniel's offense with JN new Smith Yak opportunities get the ball in his hands and let him produce and that can happen in week one the Miami Dolphins were not good at defending tight ends last year allowing the fifth most fantasy points per game to the position and the highest yards per reception to the position so even if it's not a ton of Target volume if he's the wide receiver three basically in this offense in a high total game in week one what are we talking about he needs to score probably to get into the top 12 tight ends right okay that could probably happen in week one you have a Consolidated passing attack they're not running in at the goal line I'm telling you John Smith can catch a touchdown and you need to consider him for your lineups all right Closing everyone those are the top 10 players you need to be getting or considering for your fantasy lineups that are going to outproduce their rankings on fantasypros.com again not only do you need to sit and consider these 10 players but use the multi- league assistant it doesn't have to be hard people yes we all got a lot of leagues but at fantasy pros we can help you manage them easily enjoy the primer and enjoy week one football is back baby