Editors final 2024 Emmy slugfest: Can anything beat 'Shōgun,' 'The Bear,' 'Baby Reindeer' on Sunday?

[Music] welcome gold Derby fans it is Emmy weekend um we had the creative arts happen just this past weekend we're heading into the prime time Emmys and we're here for our final final Final predictions um and with maybe some of what we learned over creative arts weekend how that may have impacted some of our choices and and some of our favorite moments um so let's talk about that a little bit first Marcus what was your favorite win um and takeaway from the creative arts this past weekend there was a lot of great wins but the one that made me the happiest was Angela Basset winning best narrator for Queens she took down David attenburrow um she's she's somebody who gets nominated a lot and doesn't win a lot so it was so happy I think this was her ninth Emmy nomination and she finally won and she was there which is you know hidden with the creative arts I mean sometimes the winners are not there like John Bernthal Michaela Cole you know the list goes on of who's not there but Angela Basset showed up she accepted that Trophy and I can't wait for everyone to see her speech it will air on FXX on Saturday the 14th they're going to do a truncated version of the creative arts and yeah it just made me so happy Daniel what about you what did you like about the creative arts um I was you know my favorite win certainly was a very nerdy win it was best cinematography for a movie or limited series going to Ripley uh Robert elswit uh I as soon as I saw Ripley I thought you know if this doesn't win the Emy for cinematography then just cancel the Ser emies there's just no point uh so it did in that did in fact win so they don't need to cancel the rest of the emmies I'm happy to I'm happy to say Ray what about yeah you know I I I actually was really uh like Daniel nerding out on Robert ell with and agreed that that had to be the maybe the biggest Locker of of all the emmies of all 124 categories um but my my uh my favorite was high also a highly predictable one Jam Lee Curtis who just seems to be loving being in the awards conversation now as a woman in her mid-60s she's just reving in all this pension and having fun with it making you know and being self-deprecating about it you know I had a good little back and forth with her in The Press Room on on Sunday night uh and um she's just you know she's just terrific and she so deserved it for playing uh for playing the mother from Hell on the bear uh Donna Brado um and you know uh my takeaway is basically if you're not on the beer or Shogun baby reindeer you're probably not going to be walking away with a trophy uh from the semis yeah I liked the win for Eric Andre I've just been a fan of his for for so many years I love pranks I love prank comedy he's so outrageous and obnoxious um it's fun to see someone like that be appreciated and and win an Emmy um for his shortform performance and I I just think the Eric Andre shows so much fun and and ridiculous so it was fun to see to see him um out there and you had a great backstage interview with him as well yeah I love that hair too he's got some he's got some major afro go and the suit like um yeah well as you mentioned um Shogun and the bear really had huge nights already I mean Shogun already broke Game of Thrones record for the most Emmy wins in a single season and we haven't even hit the prime time Awards yet they won 14 the record was previously 12 Which Game of Thrones achieved three times um the overall record holder was John Adams the limited series from 2008 and that had 13 so Shogun already has the most for any Series so that's just insane um they weren't undefeated uh they they lost music and what was the other one main title mle theme music so both of the music categories they lost those poor musicians from Shogun I mean what what they losers and then there was one category where it was up against itself so it it also lost that one but I mean they also won that one so and it really was like across the board there were seven different episodes of Shogun that won Emy I mean for for across the makeup and costumes and production design it wasn't like it was just one episode that like hoarded all these Awards it was really spread out over seven different episodes um so that's pretty incredible um let's get into our predictions heading into this weekend and what's Chang some of these might be really easy and and we can go pretty fast comedy series I feel like most of us had the bear except for Marcus you had hacks and I feel really better about the bear um now than I did before so Marcus are you switching or are you holding on the hacks I'm I'm switching to the bear it w seven emys over the weekend which is quite a lot after winning 10 last year yeah already and that's the record for a comedy is 10 which the bear set last year so all it has to do is win three to tie its own record and if it wins four five six then it we're in you know record territory and yeah I switched to the bear it's an easy decision to switch after so many wins especially casting for a comedy series John Bernell Jam Lee Curtis I mean these are some huge wins so I'm sorry hacks sorry like this is the best season of hacks ever season 3 was phenomenal and it's it's it's is it gonna win anything I guess we'll talk about that I I I I think it actually still is gonna wi okay good and no one I mean we're all in a consensus on on the bear correct I don't want to all of us just no say I'm tring we don't need all give a monologue about why the bear is winning com I'm trying to imagine what would happen if they said and the winner is Curb Your enthusiast so let's move on Comedy actress now this is going to get interesting because um we have IO DeBry who is the defending supporting actress champ who's moved into lead um and then Jean Smart who all of us had winning I believe and um but now the bear has done really well at creative arts so is IO a bigger threat or does Jean still have it in the bag I'll go to use on this Ray yeah I think um I is already rent her course she's already yesterday's views I think no you know what I just think there's so much love for Jean Smart out there I mean I know you can get in trouble when you think of sentiment and at these Awards as we've seen in the past but um you know she's already won twice uh she's a beloved figure kind of a living legend almost at this point and she's um you know she she had some some medical issues and you know heart heart surgery and everything else and I I feel like everyone almost breathed a sigh when when hacks came back and it was great it was still great and I think she's gonna B I think Jean's GNA benefit from that and we'll we'll out discon Sile because Daniel how about you yeah I think Jean Smart will still win um I for a while I thought this was a close race and then I'm like no Jean Smart's gonna win it in walk now I think it's back to being a pretty close race uh I think I think IO um after uh that you know incredible creative arts Run for the bear uh I think I think she's definitely a major threat like you know she you know she she could win just on kind of like a bandwagon kind of uh you know if if if they're just checking off the bear everywhere I don't see why they wouldn't check her um although you know then you've got Jean Smart which it feels like if anything is gonna win for hacks it would be Jean Smart uh so uh I'm going with Jean smart but I'm not entirely I'm not as confident as I was last week Marcus same for you yeah I'm sticking with Jean smart but you know all these people there's going to be a lot of people like gold Derby who's gonna who are going to predict the Bear in all seven categories all across the board yeah and those people may be smarter than us because shitz Creek was able to do this a few years back and now the bear can easily win all seven so they might be smarter than us but are they Jean smarter than us sorry can I always count on right here um and what would be interesting is that if it does win all seven that would bring it to 14 for the year so it would also have beaten the John Adams record even though we'll talk about later Shogun is definitely winning more uh you John Adams I mean you talk about yesterday's news that man is hundreds of years old I would also say something about the Emmys about like where are we that like why all of a sudden in one year do we have such a sweep that two shows break the alter record I mean that's kind of I think a little obnoxious no matter how much you love these these shows I just I I wish it wasn't the fact that these people aren't paying close attention and they're just vom Voom Voom on their ballots without almost without giving it a a second thought I I hope it's not that but it could be we missed that tape system where they where they had to watch and you could get a merit Weaver um like just random upsets we love those um this next category speaking of easy to call I I mean I just I don't want to spend time on this comedy actor we all have Jeremy Ellen White for the bear never lost he's never lost the Emy or any award so I mean I think nothing has changed since our last predictions so we're just going to say congratulations to Jeremy Ellen White and and I'm going to move us along to to Comedy supporting actress and this is interesting because Ken Liza kenas pull off a shocker here if if the bear is is sweeping through the night does she have enough momentum behind her or is it still between Hannah einbinder and Merill stre uh Marcus let's start with you I moved Liza up to second place after this weekend I think I mean if there's a sweet mentality going on which there probably will be um she can easily win this I I do still have Hannah at number one though and I do worry about Merl strap down in third I think it's going to be one of those three um sticking with Hannah einbinder just because she w i mean she's really a lead on the show we talked about this in another slugfest she's her and Jean Smart are Co co-leads but Hannah goes down to supporting just so maybe she can win an Emmy and I'm hoping it pays off this year after two losses in this category I'm thinking this this may be her strongest chance Daniel um I'm picking Hannah einbinder uh only mergers in the building did pretty it was one of the few shows to beat shun head-to-head um you w best uh uh music for music composition for series um so you know I I think Merl Streep has a has a solid shot at this uh you know uh but I I still think it's gonna be Hannah einbinder looking at our odds now uh Liza colonas has moved up to third place in our odds uh and in fourth place is chery Le Ralph for Abbot Elementary she was in fourth place in our odds the year she won too so uh I'm I'm a little worried about that now too and Ray you had Merl Streep are are you sticking with that no um I'm not all right we got a we got change yeah I um I've gone back and forth and finally I just decided to throw Marland the bus it's under the building these Johnny come LLY actresses you know it's enough already no you know um I think Hannah had she's I think she's having sort of a breakout in season uh season three it is season three now right yes of hacks and U I know that that this award is for season two but we all know how that how season three no this is for three oh this is for three okay yeah yeah I get confused between this and the beer anyway um as as do voters no doubt um it's hard to it's hard for me to pick anyone beating Meo street because she's Meo street but I I think think um especially if Jean wins I think Hana is winning as well um I I can actually uh I know I I really like uh I've interviewed her Eliza kenas uh I don't think she's strong enough in this category to win I think if there's a if there's an upset Contender it could be coming out of nowhere Carol Bernett um just because she's Carol Bernett and uh I I would not I would be only slightly shocked if she sneaks in and grabs it from everyone but um I think Hana is U is still the favorite here uh Meo Street gets nominated an awful lot but wins only about 20% of the time we find yeah I'm worried about Merl street but I still think Hannah einander is a strong enough favorite for me to to keep things the way it is I actually didn't change my predictions at all after the creative um no because I already like had such good predictions that there was no changes needed um comedy supporting actor um Ean Moss Bach Rock he's another he's almost at the level of Jeremy Ellen White not quite maybe but almost that sure of a thing I mean among these acting races it's probably Jeremy Allen White's the safest I would say eban is probably second safest does anyone have any arguments to be made for for anyone else pulling off any sort of upset here no I thought for a for a minute there I I thought Paul DS could um but um and you know Lionel Boyce has a great has a great episode in season two you know Copenhagen where he you know goes off and and does his training thing but um Ean is so consistently great and so strong and so powerful in the role um uh and I this could just be one of those where everyone automatically puts down the the bear Contender um uh even though there are two bear contenders uh in this in this race I think I think Evan's the strong you know he is almost as strong I think as Jeremy aleno yeah and by the way eban's episode is called Forks and that episode w three Emy last weekend cinematog sound editing sound mixing so they clearly love the episode if episodes for acting still matter what episode did Jeremy submit this year I think it was the finale where he gets tra the is that oh in in the fridge and every because everyone else is fishes or Forks usually so um but that wasn't necessarily his standard episode so um speaking of fishes yeah for for comedy let's combine the next two categories and sort of talk about both of them when when we come to it comedy directing and comedy writing so here the bear is the is the favorite in both of them for fishes in directing and fishes in writing um and then you've got hacks with bulletproof in second place in both categories so what do you guys think about this Daniel I'm going to stir with you talk about your thoughts for comedy directing and writing and and is the bear going to just sweep through both of these uh yeah I think it's going to be the bear for fishes for both uh it's nominated twice in in the uh directing category uh which is a little bit concerning because uh hack has capitalized on that before uh but I think fishes is a strong enough front runner um you know to to win over its other episode honeydew um and uh you know and it'll it'll just win both categories like it did last year uh yeah so so yeah I'm not I'm not predicting a big surprise there and Marcus what about you uh first of all I just checked Jeremy's episode is the finale of season two uh it's called the bear so the bear episode when for the Bear show um yeah after this weekend I mean fishes is probably going to win both I would love for hack to win one of these at least but the safe money is on fishes it's interesting because a lot of people think that bulletproof from hex could win writing um but as Daniel mentioned directing is where it could capitalize on on a vote split so raid what do you think about this I do believe that the voters will be going fishing um and uh I think no you know I think that actually comedy writing is a is a slam dunk for sure directing even it was such an amazing directorial job because it was so claustrophobic in that episode with so many people having to fit in um I feel like uh you know Remy Yousef um having directed uh honeydew has a shot just because he's Remy Yousef and it's so different than every other episode that the the bear has done so lowkey and Mild uh and not nearly as frenetic so I feel like voters you know if they want to take a have an exhale they might exhale and do and and go with honeydew but you know the favorite the favorites are fishes for for both for both uh episodes I think hacks the rewards for hack will be the actors not not the scripts and not the director I mean just when that fish's episode came out and people started seeing it everyone was talking about that episode episode it's just I I don't think there was a any episode of any show that I've heard so much about as as when fishes came out and every Jam Lee Curtis is a slam DK and of course she she was and she ws and John Bernthal won so um I I think fishes is looking pretty safe um and by the way last year uh the Creator Christopher stoer he won producing writing and directing he won all three and he wasn't there I think he had covid or something don't quote me on that so this year we're actually going to see him finally give a speech um because he's nominated for producing directing and writing but he does have a co-writer so I'm hoping Joanna Koo maybe will give the writing speech Christopher and you can give the other two right Joanna call be his his co- showrunner yeah um yeah uh that's right he did have covid last year um no covid excuse this year come on well moving into drama I mean we discussed this earlier show already has 14 Emmy Awards so this will be jaw-dropping if this loses to to anything um I still have the crown in second place just because it's sort of the swan song season and it's a series that voters have loved um but I mean I Shogun can't be beat does anyone have any arguments for anything else only three body problem has a shock no um no you know at this point it would just about be the biggest upset in Emmy history if anything other than shun yeah but Crown did when costumes last weekend and something else and production design well there's a bell weather so at least at one I this was a really good final season so you're gonna walk away with two Emmys plus maybe Elizabeth de Becky so maybe three Emmys do you think do you think uh Kate's talking about having stopped chemotherapy uh will have well actually voting's already long done but um uh you know it would have been interesting if she had uh done that during during the voting period um and seeing if that had any impact on the current Royals versus the uh the Cinematic Royals wow well drum actress um this could get interesting Anna most most of us have Anna saai winning for Shogun she is the front Runner that people expect her to go along for the sweep and then we've got ailda ston for the crown who is the only Queen who has not won an Emmy for playing the queen so will they go with the dun or is Anna soai the lock that we think she is Daniel um yeah I wouldn't call her a lock necessarily because you know we we've only seen one actor uh you know from the show uh you know compete so far Nester caranel who won a guest Act um this past weekend so we don't know exactly like fully how much the writer brand or the the actor branch of the TV Academy is is on board with Shogun you know if they're going to go all in the way other branches have uh so I wouldn't call her a lock I would say Melda ston does have a strong chance but you know given everything we've seen in the those other categories those 14 wins uh I'm not betting against her Marcus what about you M to win here can Jennifer Aniston uh Jennifer Aniston show The Morning Show also won two Emmys for hair and makeup so um it's possible I mean they they did like the season clearly but I think Anna soai is as close to a lock as you can get without saying the word lock Ray you have Anna yeah I think um this is she's going to get carried along in the show shun Juggernaut um AEL yeah it's a fairly strong second but um you know Anna is the is the runaway pick remember though remember early in mu season everybody thought Jennifer Aniston was the lock I know yeah that was before Shogun premiered and then all bets were off but no I think it's yeah things things fluctuate and speaking of that I mean Gary Oldman was the front runner before Shogun came along as well and now huki Sonata is is the favorite I have hiroyuki winning um there are still a lot of people that think Gary Oldman can pull this off he is an Oscar winner he has a lot of prestige he's he's you know the legendary actor of this category um I just he's finally nominated on the third season I just don't see that coming to fruition for him I think this is sonatus to lose uh Marcus what do you think yeah we didn't see a lot of love for slow horses last weekend I even Donald Glover I mean his show Mr and Mrs Smith won for stunts and for um Michaela Cole as a guest star so even that show I would say has more love in the Emmy among Emmy voters but I mean I can't go against hero Yuki Sonata I can't I just sorry yeah Ray what about you yeah I can't go against Yuki either um any any category that Shogun is in at this point is the the whoever is representing the show is the favorite although I would make the argument that of all of the acting categories that uh uh you know that that Shogun is in um and favored uh this is the one that that could possibly slip to uh to the second the second pick which is Gary Oldman um yeah because there there's a lot of there's a lot of affection um for him and there's also kind of a narrative of him being um overdue Daniel uh here here Yuki Sonata for me too um yeah know it's it's I I almost feel like he's like a little bit safer than uh Anis aai um you know just because uh you know the crown we has a history of winning acting Emmys um and you know slow horses doesn't have a really Emmy history before this year uh though The Prestige of Gary Oldman could help um but but yeah I I don't think it's going to be enough to take down here and speaking of no Shogun in a category that brings us to drama supporting actress where Elizabeth dicki has a clear path to Victory there's no Shogun standing in her way she is Princess Diana in the crown she has won the critic's choice the Golden Globe so this is hers to lose does anyone have anyone else or can anyone make an argument for anyone else to pull off an upset here I hope she's there I hope she has a great speech plan because she is going to win absolutely she's gonna win well a little bit more exciting is drama supporting actor where Billy crud up of the morning show is a previous winner and he is the front runner unless things have changed I guess I didn't I didn't double check our odds a lot of people I know a lot right now and they're tied they are tied now for first place so I had tadanobu asano I I had him already going in I wasn't one of the flippers I I was holding strong and now a lot of people are are moving in that direction after how Shogun performed last weekend um including my fellow comrades here all did all of you switch to to to asano D tell me tell me about it uh I always thought Billy crudi was kind of a soft front runner um you know I had him in first place because he he's won before you know maybe he's the Peter Dinklage of the morning show the only actor who seems to kind of get arrested for the show but you know uh given how well Shogun did and how you know Billy crudup's nominated against uh two of his co-stars instead of just one uh you know Shogun has already overcome a vote split at creative arts so I don't see that being a huge problem for tanov wasano um so yeah I I I just think yeah I'm gonna predict yeah I'm gonna predict Shogun everywhere it's nominated and if I get one or two of them wrong like I'll get most of them right anyway so Marcus same for you yeah and so at Gold deru we have charts and graphs and all this fun stuff and on this drama supporting actor graph Billy crudup is up here he's been number one the whole time and then toon noou asano is here he's been number two and now they're actually doing this because they tied and I'm I'm assuming because we're filming this on September 10th I'm assuming by tomorrow the 11th uh he will overtake he will have overtaken Billy CR that's my guess Ray who do you have here um I have I have aano I feel like um again I'm not I'm not picking against anybody from Shogun at this point uh I uh in fact uh I had Billy crud up not no higher than third I had John H sick so that's where I'm standing no I think um I've I've had aano from from the beginning and I'm sticking with him yeah well the next two I'm going to combine again directing and writing um because Shogun is favored in both um in directing for Crimson Sky it is not competing with itself so that's a clear path I think it's absolutely unbeatable for directing and writing um there are two nominees Crimson sky and anen and people seem to think sky is strong enough that it's not going to have any issues with anen being in that as well but there are people that could make an argument for first date for Mr and Mrs Smith negotiating with tigers from slow horses and and Ritz the crown um unfortunately fallouts uh doesn't seem to be in the picture here um but I'm still going with Crimson sky from Shogun um is anyone else doing anything else in in directing or writing or is is this just continuing the Shogun Shogun Anza yeah i' I've got them both winning and the director he's been around forever his name is Frederick EO toy and he's only this is only his second nomination he got in for Westworld too so it it'd be good to finally see him get up there on the on the stage well limited series this is going to be interesting um because we've got baby reindeer True Detective night country which had the most nominations going in lessons in chemistry Fargo and Ripley and Ripley actually is going into the prime time uh Awards with the most wins it won three at the creative arts um it's a little more techy than than baby reindeer may maybe it one uh for uh was it visual effects and cinematography and what was the third one um I'm playing it up now I think it was one of the sound categories okay so sound but baby reindeer it's more of a straightforward story I don't think that's going to hurt it I think baby reindeer is still the the front runner here and I'm going that way um what about you R yeah I I'm not going to vote against baby reindeer here for limited series even though you know I I thought Ripley was a slam dunk when I W when I saw it uh you know but and and it makes sense that it would win the most craft categories because it's so impeccably produced um and and as Daniel would uh the cinematography is is Oscar weather um but um I don't think that's going baby ranger was a phenomenon when it uh when it was released and it's still it's still winning fans is a phenomenon and it's the most certainly the most unique limited series we've seen in several years due to the subject matter and the and the just the way it was the way it was made um I think uh I think baby reindeer is staying on top Marcus yeah baby reindeer won the casting award and that's that's a huge bellweather for what's going to happen in series it also won picture editing too so it did win one of those little Tech uh trophies um I've had baby reindeer since April I'm not changing it now but I did make a change we'll talk later in directing so stick around for five more minutes Daniel you're sticking with baby reindeer here sticking with baby reindeer the uh casting award was very telling the uh editing award was kind of icing on the cake for a show that's doesn't have the showest uh uh technical details um so the fact that it it won those two is a really good sign for it especially casting so I I think it's uh it's still smooth sailing although I did move ripply up to number two in my predictions well the next category is interesting movie limited actress because we don't know where this is going to go jod Foster is leading the way for true detective night country which did not have a good night at the creative arts Awards um and then you've got Naomi Watts um from fud capot versus the swans which did have a decent night um and then Brie Larson lessons in chemistry it got a couple music award and Juno Temple from Fargo Sophia vargar from Griselda this is sort of a wide openen race I still have Jody Foster out front I have Naomi Watson second just because um as our contributing writer Jack mahines uh wrote in an article for us she had so much support or the series had so much support from the actor's Branch there's an actor from feud in every acting category here so the actors clearly love it they're voting for this she's a movie star there are arguments to be made for her um but there are Arguments for Bri as well um I'm starting to feel like Juno and Sophia are the bottom two for me I think it's really between jod Naomi and Bri what do you think about this Marcus I have had Bri for a couple of months now and you know if True Detective had won some awards last weekend I I may have been persuaded to switch to Jody Foster but it went zero for 13 last weekend and it has uh six more at the at the main ceremony on Sunday so I just it's it's hard for me to switch to something that lost that much and lessons and chemistry I know it only won one and I'm trying to remember what it was music music music composition so I mean the music and the actress races don't like correlate really but I mean it's on the board lessons in chemistry and I just think that this this is Bri larsson's time to to take home and Emmy to go along with her Oscar she'll be halfway to egot and Daniel are you with me on jod and on confidence uh yeah Jody and completely lacking in confidence um I think at creative arts these five nominated programs won like two I think uh did did Feud win more than one I think it won at most it won two it won costumes and that's it yeah just the one okay so just two Awards across all five of these shows so these are clearly not the five favorite shows of the TV Academy at large and we saw no evidence of who uh among these uh would be the strongest uh so I still have jod Foster uh but whoever wins this category is gonna be the only win for the show or one of the only wins for the show uh so it's it's really hard to guess this is gonna be a nailbiter I think I have R Larson in second I have Juno Temple in third she won our gold Derby award I would not be surprised if Juno Temple ends up winning that would be the first acting win for Fargo in history wow and Ray you're you're with Marcus and going with Brie Larson correct I am I am I uh I agree it's this is you're totally right this is such a tossup um but I feel like uh yeah Bri needs an Emmy to go with her Oscar um she was so strong in the show um she really she carried it and carried it beautifully and I think it's an underrated underappreciated series I really got into it really loved it um and um she just dominated and and I feel like anyone that actually bothered to watch these which you never know who actually watched anything that even that they voted for um would would uh would go with Bri although and you know I would actually if I was picking a second it would be uh it would be Juno I feel like she was really great in in Faro I loved Juno and Fargo if I was an Emmy voter I would be voting for her and just to give her some hope I've heard people also say they think Sophia varar could win um just for great it's a transformative performance it's a real person she's a little gangster she we're used to seeing her in comedy so it's it's a transformation for her for sure and she's on America's Got Talent so if she doesn't win the Emmy she can still win a Golden Buzzer um and I would we're gonna move to movie limited actor which is also an interesting race because we have Richard Gad who is the front runner baby reindeer's the front running series um but he's got competition here I think this is a really interesting category where I wouldn't be shocked if there was an upset I'm not bold enough to predict one I'm I'm predicting Richard Gad for baby reindeer but I'm not going to be surprised to to see Andrew Scott win for Ripley um Marcus has given great Arguments for Tom Hollander and Feud uh and even John Hammond Fargo Matt Bowmer and fellow Travelers these are all great options I I honestly wouldn't be shocked anyone um but I'm going to I'm going to stick with Richard Gad for baby reindeer um Marcus you had Tom Hollander as of a week ago are you still there I'm still there and when it won the Emmy for period costumes I was I kind of felt not Vindicated but I felt like okay so there is love for the show I'm not crazy um and it did get in for all for acting nominations uh I'm talking about Feud so the acting Branch loves it and of course Richard Gad is the front runner and he did phenomenal on that show but I'm this is one where I'm I'm putting my 500 Point bet and I'm probably going to be wrong but at least I have the right reasons to be wrong um Daniel uh I've got Richard Gad I I I think this is uh I I I've always thought this is kind of a two-way race sorry Tom Hollander uh I think this is between Richard Gad and Andrew Scott um both shows had the most love at creative arts um you know Richard Gad has I would say a flashier performance uh certainly in episode four uh you know where he breaks down on stage I think that's episode four um and it is episode four okay and uh and but but Andrew Scott is like in basically every frame of Ripley he's you know he's so dominating a presence in that uh even though he's uh giving a more subtle performance uh you know I think there's a lot of respect for him I I hope there's still a lot of shame in Academy members for snow Ham's hot priest um uh so you know there there might be residual love from his past work uh he was just in uh all you know all of us strangers the uh the film that he should have been nominated for an Oscar for um so they there there there's a lot of reason to think that Andrew Scott could upset but I'm still going to get on the basis of how strong baby reindeer is is I think it's going to be and Ray you have Gad I'm going with Gad I mean he's he created the phenomenon as well as starting it um although you know I have to say every time I hear Tom Hollander uh you know playing capot speaking in that in that series he sounds so much like Trum capot it's just it really is an amazing performance and I don't even know if he's even though nominated her I don't know that he's gotten enough kudos for that um uh in almost any other year I would pick Tom Hollander um and but this is a very strong category I thought John Ham was great Matt bmer was great and Andrew Scott was transformational he was so great in Ripley um you know this is a it's not a tossup because Richard Gad is the queer front runner but U awfully strong performances I'm worried a Andrew Scott's character is a little too creepy and subtle so that's why I don't have him in the top two just for me personally yeah I think the only category we are confident in for limited series acting wise is supporting actress for Jessica gunning and baby reindeer I mean she is the performance of all performances and I mean no one can make an argument against her no she she's no she's a so duck uh that she's so good and um so good that it's like if I had just had an actress and said boy you know I I I need to create a show around you here how would you like to play this character I would start with her even before they had the script um she was so so great um you know it's too bad Nava Mel you know her who's Al you know for co-s supporting player here but let's face it Jessica gunning is not a supporting player she's a star in this right and um so uh Nava is terrific also and uh it would be a breakthrough to have a trans performer win but um nobody's beating Jessica gunning this year this would be this would be especially someone else from baby reindeer I mean that would just be outrageous if if she lost to someone in her own show um but supporting supporting actor now this category is crazy to me because it's almost the opposite um you've got all these people that it's like anyone could win we have Jonathan Bailey who's the strong he's a surprisingly strong front runner for the lack of any love for fellow Travelers I mean and then in second place we've got Robert Downey Jr in the sympathizer and I think he's the show's only nomination so we've got two people in shows that nobody in the emms seems to really love that much leading our odds and then if you go with the sweet mentality it's Tom Goodman Hill from baby reindeer and I just thought he was a little too mean-spirited and unlikable that character to actually win for this and Treat Williams from Feud John Hawks from True Detective Lewis Pullman Les in chemistry and leamor Morris for Fargo it's a very bizarre category I'm going with Jonathan Bailey just because I he's the odds on front rner but I also loved fellow Travelers and I would love to see it win somewhere and I love Jonathan Bailey but I don't know about this category Daniel where are you going here I'm going with Jonathan Bailey and I honestly don't even know why at this point it's uh you know and you know I I guess it's sort of like the Jessica gunning situation where he's he is a co-lead in fellow Travelers um you know in in the supporting category it's the flashy performance you know I I uh well arguably Robert Danny Jr is playing like seven people um it's uh it's a but it's a showy role it's an emotional role it's a huggable role um yeah it sort of reminds me of Ben wishop for uh for a very uh English Scandal a few years ago that series didn't have a whole lot of support overall uh but he still ended up winning uh for a very showy Ro uh so I'm going with Bailey for that reason so I yeah I say I think if there's going to be an upset from one of the nominees with a with a lot more support for their show as a whole I'm looking at Lewis Pullman and if he if he wins that might be a sign that Bri Larson is winning later on in the night uh I could see that happening uh that twofer um but uh other than that honestly almost anyone could win this award I I really I really won't be too surprised uh if you know no matter who ends up taking this and Bailey did win a critic's choice award so he has won something for this which is which gives him a little bit of clout here in this front runner position um Ray or Marcus do do both of you have Jonathan Bailey as well I do yeah you know and I have no confidence in that at all um so I I feel like I feel like it might be foolish going against anyone from baby reinder um and think that Tom Goodman Hill despite the the creepiness and unlike ability of the character you know could have broken through and and maybe again the win for casting was indicative that that there could be a close correlation you know um yeah I feel like I feel like it's to even though anybody could take this I feel like it's a tossup between Bailey and Goodman Hill all of the comparisons that Daniel just made to Ben wisha are kind of mind-blowing especially like they both play gay characters in Period pieces as well and I was already predicting him to win Jonathan Bailey but I'm gonna I'm gonna stick with that now um our colleague Chris beum has switched to Tom Goodman Hill because he thinks there's going to be a u baby reindeer suite and I would not be surprised if he's correct in fact I'm I need to move Tom to my second place position well I think movie limit at directing is an area where we're going to disagree um and for for good reason I think there's arguments to be made for for a couple of shows here I'm going with baby reindeer um Daniel you had been going with Ripley Marcus you jumped on Daniel's bandwagon and you're going with Ripley and Ray who are you with here I'm I'm doing baby reindeer um I interviewed the director uh Veronica toila uh so it's completely personal it is completely personal it's only because I claim ownership of her um in keeping with the baby reindeer theme um no you know uh it's so different it stands out so much uh episode four from the rest of the series you know where it really is just this drug induced you know Acid Trip kind of an episode and um very really really powerful very very disturbing even in a way that's so different the rest of the show is is really much more about Jessica gunning and the stalking and Martha but episode four is really about him and it's a psychological study of someone who um you know in they self-loathing uh and how that contributes to his fate and I feel like that's going to come through in the in the directing way and Daniel make this argument for Ripley because it is compelling what what you're going with here um well I was going with it initially just on kind of a hunch that uh we've seen upsets in the directing category before when it's a series nominated in its entirety for one director uh uh you know it happened with unorthodox won this category the night manager won this category um so I think uh that was why I was originally going with that hunch and now I feel actually a little bit better about it because Ripley won those three uh those three Emmys at creative arts uh it is the more technical show it it's it it it it feels like the more directed uh piece like and you know a lot of times at at award shows it's the most of of anything it's the most directed uh of of these uh uh top contenders so uh that's why I'm I'm I'm going with Ripley it's it's certainly the showest the flashiest achievement uh of directing and it's nominated for the whole series yeah well and this is my argument that it's really almost it's pretty unprecedented for directing and S and limited series to split unless the directing for the limited series um has multiple nominees so you mentioned you know the night manager you mentioned uh what was the other one unorthodox unorthodox unorthodox beat the Watchman which one limited series The Watchmen had three nominees for directing that year so it was splitting votes um night manager I believe lost to OJ Simpson is that that year I think so or did I go way back but that one also had multiple nominees for directing baby reindeer doesn't have multiple nominees and if you look at the history directing and best limited series have always gone together unless the director had multiple nominees um in the category so I'm just going with statistics here I'm just I'm taking I'm taking everything else out of it and I'm gonna stick with baby reindeer although I do appreciate your Arguments for Ripley I did move it into second place I think it could happen um but I'm just I'm just going to stick with baby reindeer just for those statistical reasons and the sweep reason too that's probably the biggest reason of all why um baby reindeer is probably going to in directing but I did switch after the creative arts because of those three wins and everything Daniel said Stephen alen this is he he's nominated seven times total in his career at the Emmys he's never won he did win an Oscar for writing Schindler's List uh I so I feel like the voters know him they know who he is and I think that before what' you say it didn't help before he wrote Schindler's List before a lot of those enemy losses um he he wasn't he was he did the night of which is probably my favorite limited series of the last 10 years I think I I loved that show so much I was really disappointed um I wish he would have won an Emmy for that um but I agree with you that's another reason uh what's her name Veronica um from Veron toosa yeah I mean she's new on the awards I mean she doesn't if you look at her IMDb page this is like really the first major thing that's for her she she's she's British and over there Che so I don't know how the director's Branch will treat her in that way I mean maybe they are snobs and and maybe they don't like newbies yeah and like if everyone just goes with the odds it's going to be a very boring Emmy so I I like to have two or three categories where I I I go against the odds and this is one of those well I think it's hard to go against the odds for writing and that's baby reindeers to lose I don't think I think that's its strongest category um and and Richard Gad will be rewarded here so maybe they don't need to reward him in the acting category that it so that could be right for an upset but I mean nobody really has an argument to make against baby reindeer winning Among Us four at least correct no yeah I think he's got this and he's up for every episode not just you know one yeah wrote the whole series by himself right I mean there's no cowriter yeah no just him um there could be some drama in the competition program because we saw Ellen Coming um dethrown RuPaul for best uh host at the creative arts so that had been a long time coming RuPaul had won nine in a row was it um eight I think eight eight okay uh and RuPaul's dras has lost this before they lost to lizo um a couple years ago even though RuPaul had still been winning so now a lot of people have switched to the Traders winning this since Ellen Cummings win I'm sticking with RuPaul's Drag Race I might be stubborn for this I don't know if this is going to come back to bite me but I just still feel like the Traders is kind of still viewed as maybe like a little bit of trash trashy you know in a good way that I love and and consume but um it stars All These reality stars and I feel like alen as a host can be separated because he's such a high High Prestige actor he really gives a performance and I think like our gold Derby Awards which awarded Alan and Rupal dreg rice um for host and competitive program respectively uh I think the mem could go the same way so I'm gonna stick with RuPaul's Drag Race is anyone going over to the Traders I've already switched twice just since we've been talking it's going to be one of these two I mean flip a coin on Emmy night and and maybe he'll get it right yeah I'm I'm I'm sticking with with drag race also but um that could go back and forth several times over the next few hours I will say though RuPaul's Drag Race had seven nominations last week at the creative arts and it lost all seven which was quite shocking I I don't know if that's ever happened for rup Hall before for the show but yeah like Denton said even though Alan beat Paul in the host category that doesn't necessarily translate to the series race so I don't know what I'm gonna do right now I have Rupal winning series I could switch I mean Jeff propes used to always win and Survivor didn't right so yeah um and the voice W editing the voice has won this category before uh so I actually moved the voice up to third place um after that editing win although I don't think it's going to win be the winner of this category Daniel you're still with RuPaul as well yeah I'm sticking with RuPaul's Drag Race uh the Traders doesn't have that kind of uplifting quality that lizzo's uh show had uh so uh I I I I don't know that it it beats drag race here um I am a little you know even though it was you know real contestants this past season um I'm still thinking that that it should have gotten in still think it should have gotten into casting um and I you know and it didn't uh so it's I'm I'm yeah I'm I'm sticking with wall but it I think the issue is that there wasn't really Hasting right it's like all a negotiation because even when they Traders won casting a couple years a the previous year it it won for casting the unknowns when and that season it was half unknowns and half like a third celebrities and two-thirds unknowns or something like that but it was for casting those unknowns um and when I spoke with the casting director that one she had said you know those celebrities they have their own you know people negotiate so I don't know how what it was necessarily eligible for in the casting category so that might have something to do with that as well Ray what do you think about this category um I think uh I think drag race is going to still take it um but but Traders has has a the fact that it did lose all seven uh at the creative arts is indicative of something but I'm not sure what um you know it's not as if the academy and voters are going to whale turn against rupall um they love him and embrace him so much and I feel like maybe it was almost like you know tossing a tossing a little cookie to uh you know to the Traders uh you know to give it to Ellen cuming and then they're going to come back come back to their first love Rupal for the Pro C but what had been winning editing had rup Paul won editing previous the last couple years or what was like is that strange that the voice won this like I'm starting to get a little nervous now like maybe I should switch to the Traders like who was winning that editing prize um like is did rup Paul really lose I'm pulling it up now okay and while he's pulling that up I actually because I was curious uh what Dan said I pulled up the casting ballot for the nominations round um and uh the Traders isn't on it so yeah it wasn't eligible see this is all making me very very uncomfortable uh I think I might actually switch so rul drag race won the editing Prize last year and it won the series prize two years ago lizo watch out for the big girls won the editing prize and the series prize the year before um actually to the two years before RuPaul's Drag Race 2020 and 2021 it won editing and Series so there seems to be a connection between editing and series The Voice is winning which means the voice is winning competition oh my God what if the voice what if what if rup po rigorous and the Traders is just so split that the voice does slide in I mean that would be a shocker that's the amazing R so editing and and program have gone together every year for the past one two three four but then before that queer I won which is not even eligible for competition okay well it really says something that RuPaul's dror lost editing after it had won that M I'm like I think I'm going to switch to the Traders I'm just going to go for it I I'm too uncomfortable now with all of these losses maybe I'll regret it but I'm gonna I'm gonna go for it anyone with me or yall going to hold strong we'll see where iing I'm holding strong for the next 10 minutes all right I'll I go this weekend I'm sticking with RuPaul for now but by the time Emmy day rolls around and I've got like 15 minutes to you know update my predictions I might change but I I I think I'll probably end up sticking with but I have something else to add the Traders was snubbed in editing it didn't even get a nomination H so that complicates wait was the ballot maybe it wasn't on the ballot I don't hold on all right Daniel you look up the editing ballot while I move on um variety talk series The Daily Show uh Late Show with Steven coar Jimmy Kimmel Live Late Night with Seth Meers uh I think we all have The Daily Show The Daily Show is is a pretty popular variety talk series won last year with Trevor Noah um it won a thousand million times with John Stewart and it's a format that that that almost the host the host helps obviously John Stewart helps but it it's almost irrelevant to the format the format itself is what wins yeah and Co bear trainers was on the ballot for editing so that was a snubbed okay I'm sticking with Ral then and the Traders was nominated for cinematography um which is not really a rup Paul's Dr race kind of thing um okay maybe I'm just I'm gonna I'm gonna simmer down and I'm Gonna Leave Rupal alone for now I'm not I'm not gonna make the leap as we speak but I'm let it simmer um but getting back to a variety of talk series Co bear Kimel Seth Meers these are all um people that lose every year so I think we're in I think we're in agreement about The Daily Show yeah I mean does anyone and The Daily Show won editing so wow I do love that Jimmy Kimmel just won an Emmy at the um creative arts for his job on on the Oscars which won I think four overall all Emmys so that Jimmy gets his Emmy that way uh The Daily Show will return to the Emmy Spotlight yet again this year it was the first time the Oscars had won best um program uh so that was an exciting all about Ken yeah it was it was all about Ken uh variety scripted series um T ninees so if you get this wrong you're looking like a fool uh Last Week Tonight with John Oliver and Saturday Night Live you have a 50% chance if you just close your eyes and point um but Last Week Tonight with John Oliver just wins and wins and wins and wins um although Saturday Night Live did very well um they won their first lifetime Emmy uh at the creative arts last week and they're they're they seem to be going strong this year so um I'm sticking with with John Oliver in this category I just I don't feel like he can lose uh what do you think Marcus I'll talk I'll go to you because you're our SNL Guru yeah I loved SNL this season uh but I was worried it wouldn't do too well because it's season 49 and who cares about 49 right but it it won six Emmys last weekend yeah the only two shows to beat it where Shogun and the bear Satur Night Live is in third place in terms of the Winds so that's huge and I think a lot of people are probably going to be switching to that based on that but I don't know in the head-to-head matchup we've only had one year of that I believe and that was um Last Week Tonight winning so I'm sticking with that Daniel how about you yeah I I've got Last Week Tonight I think the category that matters is writing um and uh that's the category where uh Last Week Tonight not only beat SNL this year it's beating SNL every year uh so uh you know I I I I'm still fairly confident Last Week Tonight Tes it Ray same yeah last week tonight um until John Oliver you know starts losing these um I still think he's the he's the way to way to bet and variety special writing it's our final category and I'm looking at this and I'm just realizing that I have no idea what I'm doing uh like I know what I'm doing but I don't really have a reason or there there's no sense to it um I'm just going with the odds I have adex it emman for just for us um but I don't really know why he's our leader I think he asked Marcus why he was the front runner when you met when you met him um so why is he the front runner and should I keep him there Marcus that's a great question I still need to binge these four um yeah standup specials of course I've already seen the Oscars and I think we talked about this previously how it's it's the Apple in the bag of oranges or however whatever fruits are are to your fancy I mean the Oscars is the only award show here and it just won was it four let me double check yeah four four emys for the Oscars I mean is it gonna be five it seems like I should switch to the Oscars what am I crazy could be Daniel what do you think um I've had Mike biglia in predicted in this category just because he's the name I'm most familiar with of the standups um I'm thinking about the Oscars too or just playing the odds uh this might be a category where I just sort of wash my hands of and and and just go with the odds sink or swim um because it's so and it's so weird that none of the best written comedy specials were the best specials and none of the best specials were the best written it's weird standup is all writing it's it's it's you know from beginning to end uh so I'm it's it's really baffling how you get a complete unique set of nominees in one category and the other uh so uh yeah I I have no idea what I'm doing uh yes so the Oscars does appear to be surging um right now as expected after that creative arts I mean they're it's in second place now with 19 to five odds but it's apples and oranges to me writing for of War Show versus writing for a comedy special it's it's bizarre that they all get thrown into the same category but it is the only one and then youve we' got four here so it depends on like how close these other four really are I guess and if there is a strong front runner among those four and I have no idea Al settlement is pretty strong and he's very well liked I think that's why he's in first place he was actually really funny as a presenter at the creative arts on Sunday too he presented makeup and he he uh he had his face all made up um in funny and and really got into it um yeah think um he's a real coming Superstar and I I think uh I think he's GNA I think he's got this even though the Oscars is church interestingly uh Jamie Kimel would win another Oscar or would would win another Emmy if the Oscars wins for WR and I'm looking at the nominees um all of the the four standup specials there there's no co-writers so it is these four the four names on the titles are are the writers so are they going to want to give it to the Oscars which has I mean is this 15 people Daniel 20 people that are nominated that's at least that's got to be at least one otherwise it's basically you're giving it to Bruce fanch or these one of these four guys I don't see Bruce's name no is it he on isn't he just don't they just put his name in there anyway whether he participates not 24 I think some of these were Jimmy Kimmel Live writers as well so okay yeah it would be good for them to finally I don't think they've ever won writing is that unattractive thing to a voter to to see that many writers I feel like at the Grammys they frown upon like songs with like song of the year they don't really like to see 10 songwriters on there yeah that's a good I don't know what I don't know what this is like if they if they're like oh look more of my friends or if they just think that's like what did you write four lines and you get an emino and I don't know if the names are actually on the ballot either it may just have the name of I'm sure they're not how could they fit 24 people on the B they just put everybody's everybody in the wga I'm going to move the Oscars to Second which isn't GNA help me win anything but I'm gonna just stick with I I haven't been second Alex edman okay all right well I mean it's going to be interesting I ultimately did not make any changes as I said I would not um but I'm really nervous about rupal's drag race I think that one scares me the most what category scares each of you the most that you think you might have wrong I'll start with you Daniel uh the one we just talked about honestly uh that that category is the only one where not only do I not know who to predict I like I don't even have a theory Beyond you know the the idea that the Oscars is the only non-stand up special maybe that helps it but it also has the most writers so maybe that hurts it so like you know I really just I I'm I'm just throwing my hands out on that Ray where do you feel the weakest um the one that where I'm the most concerned and Confused is comedy supporting actress um where I'm voting against Meo stre which which may be really foolish uh and for uh Hannah einbinder um when lier col and Zas could beat them both so um I have even as we speak I have diminishing confidence even during the swug Fest in that choice Marcus where are you what are you scared of um I guess the Tom Hollander one because that's kind of something I'm I'm going out on my own and then um the directing for a limited going with Ripley with uh with Daniel there I think those two are the ones I'm I'm most worried about but I'm not going to switch them I think I'm I'm cemented that I'll either get them right or wrong and it's it's it's better to get something right that no one else is than to get something well no it's it would also suck to get something that everyone else got right that suck too I mean I would rather win than predict all upsets and get one of them right um I just like to win and that's my focus um but it'll be interesting this is going to be fun I think there's going to be some boring moments for um like Shogun and and the bear that we all see coming and there's bound to be some sort of surprise um and and we'll look forward to that and we'll come back and talk about those um but everyone gets your final predictions in you've got just a couple days left depending on when this publishes but um Sunday September 15th we'll be there I'll be there on the red carpet with Latasha and we'll get interviews um published as fast as we can Ray's going to be backstage so we'll have videos um of uh all the winners not all of them please um but have a state we'll have videos of lots of the the winners and curated selection that I will be um uploading as fast as I can um to our website so uh we'll have plenty of fun coverage that day and uh we we look forward to it so get those predictions in and thanks for watching [Music]