Experts slugfest: Our final 2024 Emmy winner predictions

Intro and Creative Arts recap welcome back to Gold Derby I'm Christopher Rosen I'm joined by Joyce sing Joy it's it's the moment we've been waiting for our final picks for the 2024 Emmy Awards how final though pretty final you think so because in January you made two changes we know that for sure after I don't have after we locked in the episode this time I don't have as many I'm that really uh you're not going to switch back to Kieran Cen and terce no I don't have as many I'm like stressed about and I don't have as many out there picks I save that for the creative arts semi Awards choice where we both uh did not do well it's beautiful I I love people don't like it when they don't do well but I actually like it you got it's more fun that way you did do better than me you got 15 out of 31 I got I didn't even look at it I got 14 out of 31 I the thing I um I mean well obviously I call Micha Cole that was great I was very proud of you yeah um but I also like that even though I got both of them wrong I like that I was going for the split with main titles and theme because a lot of people had double Shogun I was uh I was really I was really happy with my Runners up I had uh I had the Oscars in second we talked about this I had the Tom Brady roast in first for variety special live the because also the Oscars winning that for the first time ever I had uh Dick Van D second I had a behind Billy Jo which was maybe more of a a bias pick as I interviewed them but I knew it was the second place we both I think had uh uh Beckham in second right instead of quiet on the set we talked about this I should have just put Beckham is my um Judith Light this year I should have just done it uh Angela Basset I had in second behind David atenor you know um Saturdays awards were a lot more fun than Sunday because even though there were some you know obvious winners then Saturday there were several upsets a lot of streaks ended rup Paul 8 year rain ended by alen yep qu's rain ended by Shark Tank y uh Angela's losing streak she ended it herself uh you mentioned the split on on title and design so we both had Shogun I think for title right for title no we had I had Shogun for theme and I had lessons for design so I had both T Shogun for title and theme yes which is what most people had but I had pal Royale in second because I was like that is a great theme we' we've discussed this I said Palm Royale could win both of them and it won one of them and it has a great theme and I was like oh look at that the best theme they actually paid attention it felt like some of these they actually paid attention to like well I would say um props to the music Branch because they're the only ones who did their own thing everyone else was just sheep if you if you just look at Sunday's results Shogun 114 um already beat John Adams record for most wins by any program just at creative arts we haven't done the main ceremony yet and they already beat the record it the most the re the show has not even happened uh the Emmy Awards the main show and it already is the most awarded show in the history of the Emmy Awards and and the music Branch was the only one that zagged when everyone else zigged so even though even though I'm still bitter over pel never winning for his succession score I'm very happy the music Branch went their own way they gave um score to only murders in the building I was so worried sadara kosa would never win like bratel and he actually won so he finally won that he beat Shogun and then they gave theme to Palm Royale over Shogun pretty great both great wins uh yeah so Shogun we're heading into this night Shogun just dominating 14 Awards already 14 and then the bear got seven also um extra shout out to only murders so only murders was the first show to defeat Shogun on Sunday because that category was first and then um it was also the only comedy to beat the bear head-to-head on Sunday because it won production design for the third unit row over the bear so the Bear Lost other categories but it lost them to drama like the crown or the morning show uh and really pays off the idea that they loved only murders this third season obviously it had most nominations yet got a bunch of acting on yeah but I would also say like two of its three wins were expected obviously with um the the song e got pesek and Paul and production design for the third un row obviously so uh the acting Awards so I went again another year one for three one for four excuse me I got one right and three wrong love this this is a great Trend I'm on uh you had Michaela Cole great over Clare Foy some people were surprised not you and not certainly me because we talked about this how she felt like the great alternative pick to Clare Foy who is maybe a false front runner for a season of the crown that people were kind of me on well like I've said I felt like people were just predicting Claire because she won three years ago but my feeling was that she got swept up in the crowns sweep three years ago um it's it's not I don't think it's the same as like Margot marale winning back to back when the Americans was never huge with the academy you know right it that like that like margos feels like she's like individually strong whereas like I obviously Claire has won the lead at me before but I felt like they were just checking the crown everywhere except for Charles Dance and then the other three all the favorites ju Joyce which we did not have I had we had uh well we had jlc Dam League her as we all both had and stuck with her and she won John berenthal won for the bear I I was was actually shocked CU like we had talked about how did he not win last year it's more it's not weird that he won this year it's more weird that he didn't win last year crazy just crazy and then uh yeah so that was that one really threw threw me off actually I don't know and then Neer carel wins for Shogun which we talked about it's like if if he wins it's like he's in the series front runner like all of these were in the series front runner and there was no shun guest actress nominated also I have a take later I'll drop on you about Nester Carbono winning for Shogun uh because of the morning show that's a good lost let's just I'll just just hold that there because I have a rationale for a pick later where I think that's actually part of the reason why he won uh um well how about jlc and Angela winning on the same weekend people really like that choice look at us now uh just great and jlc is really still getting mileage out of that Activa Activa Activa Activa how do you say have have you ever had it no I've never had it my my mom's had it she's still making the jokes though well you know she knows her brand she's got a good and you gota like that's that's the thing about like um humble actors too or like or or like actors or who who are famous but like you know they're not like too they they know like not not to get like too full themselves like they know where they've come from you know she's had low points and stuff um and like she's talked about like how she just like does stuff for the work she has a very varied career you know she's not very stuck up about stuff so it's like you need to even when like things are going well for you now you're halfway to an egot you got to acknowledge where you came from and she's always owned Those ads so she yes it's it's part of her set she's got like a tight five that she just brings out uh what were your overall not really anything to take away I feel like last year was like a lot of maybe overreactions to Last of Us or or whatever this year or this year I guess it was is May well it's still very similar to last year cuz last year um Last of Us dominated creative arts and went eight only eight not not 14 um but you know I think like there I don't think it was the same over reactions but I do think um people are just going to expect like sweeps in the main show and it's like I do think it was Overkill for Shogun to win 14 like it's a good show but 14 Emmy like be serious it just felt like the academy is maybe over this season of TV that was my takeaway I think the thing is like since um Co so since 2020 um we've had two fullon sweeps at the main show and then we've had a lot of like near sweeps or just like you know two or three dominant shows a year whether it's on the main ceremony or creative arts or all together and then there's like maybe one or two other shows that get a piece of the pie if those you know big dogs aren't competitive or not even nominated in these other categories that these underdogs are in so that's what these emys have felt like since 2020 and so I don't know if it's like because of covid like people are just kind of lazier and like you know priorities change like you know we talked a lot last year about like oh like it's the strikes so maybe people aren't paying attention to TV as much you know because they're just out on the picket lines and stuff and then like once the strikes and it's like oh they're back to work they don't they don't have as much time to watch TV anymore um and then there's also the proliferation of shows there's just so many shows now than there was even four years ago you know so then I think it is like very topheavy so people watch the buzziest stuff the stuff that's recommended to them and like most of the time it's probably just like the top one or two shows like Shogun and the bear and baby reindeer you know that's what it feels like yeah I also it's disappointing it's disappointing that Shogun won 14 I I gotta say this I few things that I I guess that the the creative arts enemies not to overreact to them too much but I think it I think it if you were like banking on the third season of the bear really impacting its total Hall I feel like that was a fail because I don't think they cared they obviously loveed the season of the bear like so and then you could also still argue like they know their voting for season two of The Bear right because that's what it's competing for it's not competing for season three which is what they should know right because they are voting for season two yeah uh and Shogun while we I still think we were accurate in saying it underperformed based on its acting nominations uh the show is a massive Jer not it's gonna win like it's it's not so here's the thing I think it's still underperformed in I mean the bear also underperformed in acting you know um I like they're just two different phases so like they both underperformed slightly in phase one they're still the favorites and dominant shows like neither of us have them out of first place you know but now in phase two it's different it's a different mindset and you're just picking the winner so it's like maybe you didn't vote for moah hosi for supporting actress but like you Shogun is still your favorite show of the year so you're going to vote for in series and you're going to vote for all these other acting categories right you know and um I think this is also kind of like if if you're disappointed that um we had you know such sweepers on Sunday and 14 wins for Shogun even if you think most of them were deserved um if you were one of those people who was itching for a limited series to move into drama in the spring to make it more competitive like you can't be complaining about the sweep because you asked for this what would have happened what I expected like I knew it was going to happen what would have happened if Shogun wasn't there it would be so much more fun like imag like Shogun versus baby reindeer and limited it would it would not have won 14 because like Ripley would have still won stuff you know like like like Ripley versus Shogun and cinematography like come on Rippy would have won definitely I think you know and then like drama would would be more up in the air but obviously from nominations we know that they really like Mr Mrs Smith right yep you know and slow horses overperform um and like Morning Show got its first creative arts wins this year too so like it would be so much more fun but like once you have like that strong show mve to drama like this is what we get so Reality and variety categories so we're going to do our final em picks now Joyce we're gonna start with the the competition programs and variety and then go up right I guess that's it so go from the bottom to Comedy drama to limited series if you're following Along on our pick I believe people actually follow along like that I got to say just overall before we get into it I made two changes well you said you said you're going to take the three and under remember and I did that I made two changes will you make more I don't think so I think I could change back to what I originally had depending on how I feel you're gonna pull a Kieran and a Sara again but we'll see uh I thought more I thought about more though I'll be honest I thought about more but I did not make many changes uh but we'll start with competition program Joys where RuPaul lost and uh Allan won as hosts breaking a uh eight or nine years how many you said before eight nine it was eight right this was the ninth yes so the nominees are RuPaul's Drag Race the Traders Top Chef The Amazing Race and the voice and while Allen coming one for Traders I'm sticking with RuPaul's Drag Race as the winner of competition program um I don't know what to do here yet because I feel like Traders make sense but I can also just see drag race winning again but Traders make sense I think people really did like it obviously though I mean we've heard maybe mix right like the second season was was the first season whatever but well there was that one person who was hardly defending season I don't think it's bad certainly I don't watch it so I don't care but I I just think drag race is still dra it's still great I don't know I don't see why it would lose and I don't know if the Traders is good enough to make it lose here I don't know I know it's lost previously obviously to the lizo show but I'm like I don't people love drag race like I don't understand why I wouldn't win again well I think this is it the most vulnerable it's been because no one really saw the the lizo uh upset coming you know like now we have uh Ru losing host right Allan so I just feel like it makes more sense that it would lose host than lose show I don't know I I think I'll do Traders wow yeah so we automatically can't get the same score you'll beat me again I guess it's fine are you keeping track I don't keep track of the only like just now today I looked I was like oh I knew you I knew I had one less than you uh the creative arts uh these other next three are are a lot less contentious for a variety talk series The I'm these are Daily Show Jimmy Kim live Late Night with Seth Myers and Late Show with step coar and I have The Daily Show again so I don't know nothing to say for scripted series last week tonight and Saturday Night Live and I have Last Week Tonight again nothing to say congrat for variety special writing the nominees are Alex Edelman just for us the Oscars John early now more than ever Jacqueline Novak get on your knees and Mike bigia the old man in the pool and I have Alex Edelman just for us same I have the Oscars in second though so when it finish if it wins then I'll have another runner up I guess but I feel like get points for run or up if you ain't first you last but but remember what what I've pitched we should get points for calling snubs I would be weighing on that which is more important in like phase one you know so all right so now we're going to the comedy categories Comedy categories Joyce for the last time in this Emmy cycle until next year I also Joy is just before we get into this I did my early Emmys picks for 25 you were so worried the past two weeks like the moment I even suggested it it's not that hard it's I take it seriously I want to do a good job and do a lot of work and it was a lot of work but I came up with a really good list of nominees I feel like I'm very excited to do that we'll do it next week I guess I feel like we should also set um like rules so we're just doing this the three big series comedy drama and limited and then the main acting categories do you want to do comedy and directing which will get tricky because we don't know like submission I don't want to do that just just categories in the program but then so also with slots then I feel like we should keep the same number of slots that we have right now for this year ceremony and then I feel like some of them might increase so then we could have like you know our next in line okay I did six and eight for everything so I'll do I'll drop it down to five and seven well like we we just I I think some of them will have more you know like maybe like comedy support we'll have another slot again next year maybe I don't know I don't know what they're going to submit but all right we'll do that next half a point if we get them right all right anyway back to what we care about the predictions for now comedy series Once Again the nominees are the bear hacks only murders Abid Elementary reservation dogs what we do in the shadows Curb Your Enthusiasm and pal Royale and I'm sticking with the bear Joys to win comedy series I mean nothing strange I don't know I order since July 17th what would it take for the bear to be knocked out of there a big showing by hacks I guess at the creative arts semes that didn't happen didn't win casting feels I mean you kept asking me this since like May well what else do we have to talk about nothing nothing that I mean I don't even know if because so hack didn't win anything in Creative Arts it also didn't win anything for season one at creative arts so it's like not a huge deal cuz it ended up winning three above line for season one you know so um it wasn't really competitive in anything besides guest and I guess costumes since it's won that before but it lost to the crown because the crown is now able to compete in contemporary um so I don't think like you know it flopping at creative arts is a death now for hacks but it's just like it was always going to be a su ficient task for it to beat the bear and then like the yeah the bear did not underperform at all at creative arts no so uh feels like very obvious at the barwi comedy series so not much else to say I have only murders in third I'm sure you do too right yeah I mean again I haven't changed haven't moved this yeah for comedy actress Joy Nummies again are Jean Smart for hacks Iowa DeBry for the bear Quint Brunson for Abbott Maya Rudolph for loot Kristen wig for pal Roy all and Selena Gomez uh for only murders in the building and I have Jean Smart winning for hacks for third yes I think iio is competitive but I don't think she's GNA win if she won I guess I wouldn't be surprised but so my thing from creative arts is also that the or even just from season two of the bear like the stand out episodes we know were fishes and for works and that's what they submitted for a majority of their creative arts nominations to and um it won seven split among those two episodes you know and this also applies to sporting actress like neither IO nor Liza colonas are in those episodes or important parts of those episodes so I feel like those are the episodes that are the focal points and obviously IO has her own bonafides too when she's the reigning champ and supporting but I think it's just different in lead especially competing against Jean like IA would probably win if Jean were not here I also wonder if IA would have won if she was in supporting I I don't know because I think it's still like I because I like what what do you remember because I feel like the love for Io is more just like in general you know and not like specific to anything with Sydney I mean I think in season two you remember making The Omelette yeah but it's you know it's it's not the same as fishes or Forks or even honeydew no but I think she won for season one for the same reason you know what I mean like there's not a lot memorable in season one either I think you're just like loving her no but I think she it was also an easier field last year right I guess I don't think she's gonna win actress over Jean I could see her if she was in supporting again I could see her winning I think they could easily just default to the barar in categories so they know oh I I think a lot more people would be predicting her and supporting she was still there uh but I think Jean should win if Jean doesn't win for some reason I think the bear could really just sweep all these acting categories uh I'm sure some people have already switched to seven for seven for the bear after Sunday so there you go uh for comedy actor this one is a lot less fraud but again the nominees are Jeremy Allen White for the bear Martin schwar for only murders defar Wai for reservation dog Steve Martin for only murders Larry David for cerb and Matt Barry for what we do in the shadows and have Jeremy Allen White winning congratulations I don't know we'll see if he could three repeat there's nothing nothing to say I actually think he can three repeat we'll talk more about that next year I guess comedy sporting actors are just talking about this this one's a little tight but the nominees again are Hannah ey minder for hacks Liza colog Zas for the bear Merl Street for only murder Cher Le Ralph for Abbott Carol brunette for pal Royale and Janelle James for Abbot and I'm just going to go down with the ship and stick with Hanah binder I'm sure there are people who have bailed here but I'm gonna stick with h I'm sure are people have bailed too yeah I'm not changing anything um I'm sure some people maybe have also changed to Merl since someday because of only murders three wins completely different thing different branch here different branch but I will say if I was gonna switch I would actually probably switch to Merill over Liza well again going back to my thing of like Liza not being part of fishes or Forks like correct and I think while it obviously is different branch voting and stuff there is a clear enthusiasm for only murders throughout this emy's Academy right now and like I think she would actually win if she does I think the show has always been very well wiped and it it there's just always been a show that was stronger than it ahead of it like Ted or the bear and even hacks you know um but yeah like I I've like I've never dropped marrow like you dropped marrow in phase one I was like I think she can still get in um but I don't think she'll win here I I do I would like to see the show win above the line for it's over it's gonna air for at least five seasons I I think it's trending towards that and I think if it won for Merill this year I would not be surprised in the least but I think Hannah einbinder feels just like Kieran culan last year it's hard to deny that this is like the best performance on a show that they love and this is her window because Maya will probably win next year yep uh so we're going to hold down the fort and hope she wins I'll be pretty disappointed if she doesn't win I'm not going to lie because I just love her on the show and I talk to her so gotta support my team how many people have you picked to win that you've talked to well just her and the Billy Joel So based on the Billy Joel thing she should actually hope I that maybe she we should delete but you talked to Billy the Billy Joel people twice you only talked to her once that's true maybe that's the issue if I had talked to him once maybe they would have won comedy supporting actor Joyce the nominees are eban Moss back wck for the the bear Paul W Downs for hack liono boys for the Bear bow and yang for Saturday Night Live Tyler James Williams for Abbott and Paul Rudd for only murders in the building and I have EB Moss backrack winning for back for the Bear Yes again I love him love his act love his performance love the show with him he's the best part of the show I'm glad he'll win again um what do you think would be the biggest blow out of these acting categories I do think Jeremy still I think that's a pretty soft six no disrespect to the people involved I feel like it could be Evan I think I think like Evan or Elizabeth the Vicki well we didn't get to there I thought he meant comedy I think Elizabeth Vicki is probably the biggest one Evan certainly is up there I just feel like Paul would get a lot of shine because he was so good which Paul Paul W down sorry I don't even count Paul Rod no disrespect wow two time Emy nomin Paul Rd I love Paul Rd don't get me wrong but like come on um I mean I think that's also just like your PWD bias too because like I mean I also want PWD to win but you know oh my God he's so he's not going to like even if he's second I think it's a very distant second okay for comedy directing Choice nominees are the bear for fishes hacks bulletproof Abid Elementary party the bear honeydew the gentleman refined aggression and the Miss Pacho I'm the papy and I have the bear winning for fishes Yes again so no change nothing to do it seems like the most obvious winner here no and as we know dirting Branch they are series sheep so the bear winning series and there's no triple vote split here so there you go and then for writing here's one I think probably people changed after the creative arts enemies the nominees again were hacks for Bulletproof the bear for fishes abot Elementary for career day what we do in the shadows for pride parade girls five Eva Orlando and the other two Brook hosts a night of undeniable good but Joyce I'm sticking with hacks for bulletproof same uh the reasoning has been the whole time the writers Branch uh has you you would say has taste I would say he's also uh incredibly Petty about the bear not being comedy and we'll uh make that make their voice heard here with the hacks win um yeah I think hack can still pull this out I would not have hack If This Were the whole Academy voting oscar style you know but I I still believe that hack can do this um just with Branch voting I wouldn't be shocked of the be one but I I wouldn't be shocked of the bear one obviously and I think a lot of people are picking the bear and if they haven't been they probably now like you said I'm sure people have switched in somay but I just can't get over the fact that the writers are so mad about like so many writers are vocally mad about the bear it's like the entire Abit Elementary writers room yeah and it's like I man I just don't think it's g i think if it like you said it was the whole Academy voting yes the bear would easily win but it's not and I think there's enough people who would be like protest voting against the bear and the hack also deser that hack also deserves to win I think is like should not be lost here I think it is a great finale I think it's um like Hax is literally about writing and comedy writing and then if they're also aware that bulletproof is the season 3 finale I'm sure some of them have been over in a similar way like Ava was in the finale before she blackmailed Deborah you know you're verbally promised something and then it just gets taken away from you like that um because people are scared and they just want to keep the norm the status quo going with you know usually a middle-aged white man so I think like if they're aware of that too like that might be impactful um but yeah I think this is just between the two of them obviously which I think most people know too now we could be overthinking and like you said maybe the Bear Just wins because they're just name-checking the bear but I just can't get over I just the writers really seem mad about this so I so like obviously the bear won last year too but I think it was easier for it to win last year in that field Hax was obviously not around and the next strongest show was Ted which has never won this category before you know and I don't think people were as mad last year about the B no because like like I've said I think even like when you like something you're more forgiving of issues with that thing cuz I think last year or or even like the first two seasons it was like is it a comedy or not like who really knows but like it's a damn good show whereas now like if you do take issue with its tone like you might be like uh like season wasn't that good um so which shouldn't win this Comedy Award because season 3 even though I'm voting for season to right and it's kind of like building upon like your issues from the first two seasons we'll see this ends up being right if it ends up being right we'll feel really I'll feel really good about our rationale if we're wrong be like well it all right they're just cheap then so drama series Joyce Drama categories we're into there uh the series W pretty simple but again the nominees for the last time our show gun morning show Mr Mrs Smith slow horses the crown the Gilded Age Fallout and Emmy winner and three body problem and I have Shogun winning Choice again I'm not changing anything here no congratulations to Shogun see you in what 2026 for season two will we ever see it again no okay I they're working on it I would put money on that more than seeing it again I think it'll we'll we'll see it again at some point okay but maybe do we do you think we'll see it in this decade yes if we're going to see it again we'll see it in this decade yes but and then and then it definitely won't be more than two seasons drama actress Joyce nominees for the last time are Anna soai for Shogun Elda ston for the crown my Ur skin for Mr Mrs Smith Jennifer andison for the morning show Reese withman for the morning show and Carrie for the Gilded Age and I have Anis oi winning yes this feels pretty set I feel now this this is one of the Shogun acting wins that I never really questioned yeah so so congratulations to annaa on her first mate win yeah um sorry to Mela ston for not being able to complete the Queen Elizabeth Trifecta for your final season for drama actor Joyce this is one we've debated and discussed the now on these again were huku Sonata for Shogun Gary Ol Man for slow horses Dom Glover for Mr Mrs Smith Dominic West for the crown Walton goggin for Fallout and Idris Elba for hijack and while I've gone back in for Choice I'm going to stick with hero Yuki Sonata for Shogun you really wanted to switch to Gary I did more more so than I do I did I just feel like that's not going to happen I understand it's Branch voting the actors maybe did not reward Shogun as greatly as we thought they should have with nominations or they could have but I feel like they're just going to go right across the line on Shogun at least in the league categories yeah like I um have had hero here since they moved to drama so I think it would take a lot more for Gary even if Shogun didn't win 14 memm on Sunday I think it would be a big ask for Gary to beat him yes so for drama supporting actors this one I think we're going to take three seconds on uh Nomes are Elizabeth bigy for the crown Leslie Manfield for the crown Christine for the guilded age gret Lee for the morning show Holland tayor for the morning show Karen Pitman for the morning show and Nicole Bahari also for the morning show and I have Elizabeth bigi winning for the crown Joys congratulations to her will she do the meme when she wins no because I think she will not to say like she will expect it but this is not going to be the first award okay she has won for this performance for this season love that Meme though um what is there to say here nothing I guess like would you have gone to Shogun had have made this category I don't think so me either I think some people would have I think some many people would have and I think some people have in the next category which we could go to now for drama supporting actor the nominees again are Billy CR up for the morning show t no asano for Shogun Jonathan price for the crown Jack Lowden for slow horses John Ham for the morning show takah hero Hera for Shogun and Mark duplas for the morning show and I think here a lot of people probably are like tatan noo isano and maybe you also Joyce first place gonna win and I'm sticking with Billy CR up for the morning show uh I don't know what to do here because I think it has always been between a two of them and yes like you said I think after Sunday a lot of switches to tadanobu so my rationale for sticking with Billy is that Nester carbonel one for Shogun and I think the reason we were going to have Billy win here was because the actors love the morning show it got nine nominations right that's a crazy amount of acting nominations uh it just pulled in everyone basically ree Engen Holland Taylor marshia Gay Harden got in right like everyone got in there was really not a Miss from this cast John Ham and Nester carbo winning feels like an extend while they love the Shogun I'm sure and he was the biggest the actor on the PO most popular show in that category clear clearly I think it helps that he's on the morning show and I was like I think they just love the morning show and I think Billy cab will win so that's what that was my rationale for sticking with him do you think he won for the morning show I don't think he won for the morning show but I think it didn't I think he was given a huge leg up that he's also on the morning show if he was just on Shogun he might have still won lovely actor people love him he's worked with everybody and the show is the most popular show but I do think that like being also on the morning show gave him a like up in that category he I mean honestly he should have won an Emmy actually for the morning show and not he's so good on the morning show he's so good on it that's what that's what the Emmy should be engraved with he's so good on it I don't know I this is like maybe a crazy like idea but I just was like I don't think you could discount the fact that he's also on the morning show and while I think tatano bosano would be an awesome winner we've both talked about he's got to like my favorite of the whole show maybe right like I mean he was so good I I've said a billion times if I could just give Shogun one acting Emmy I would give it to him and no disrespect to Billy KB I love him on the morning show I do think tatano basano would be like an amazing winner but I think that the morning show will win here I think the actors really love it I think actors also really love Billy crud up and that's the other thing I think that will help him yeah my I don't know I'm torn between them because I obviously understand like you know like tanoi just winning with the Shogun sweep and I don't think it it's like exactly like Tobias menes with the crown but like sort of because I think tadanobu is stronger than Tobias men um but I think it's kind of like similar where you're just part of the Juggernaut Series winner right um but yeah like Billy is like this is a performance that we know they like and have awarded before and they love the acting style of the morning show and you know he's all firing on the cylinders just unhinged monologues another no good and so like I I feel like he could be like a Julia Garner where like this is just a a fan favorite supporting performance that they just love and they just keep rewarding the difference is however Julia never lost after she made it in so she went three for three he's already lost cuz he lost to Matthew mcfan two years ago but Matthew is no longer here so like we don't know like how he will do obviously against tadanobu and we've T we talked about this a lot last year too um they don't really go back after you've lost right like people can win again if you set out the cycle right like zanda but if you actually competed and lost like in the last couple years they haven't really gone back to you like a Rachel brahan I agree with that and we talked about that a lot last year with Rachel brosan I guess the difference I would say is that I think succession maybe my bias because I love it so much but I feel like succession is almost like a unicorn it's maybe even unfair like of course like he would never he would never win against anyone from succession well he beat them the first time right but I mean like it when as as success as they like six you know what I mean like it's like clearly like they were he was never going to lose to Matthew M Matthew mcf was never going to lose to Billy crud up but I'm like I don't think tatano bosano is like Matthew mcfan level in terms of Interest I think they could go back to him no but I think like he's also like a fan favorite performance I I I think it'll be different if like no sh to him if we just talking about like takahiro here because like even though that was a very good performance on the show I don't think he stood out in the same way that tatan noou did you know so you're going to go tatan noou it sounds like I don't know what cuz like if like Shogun winning four acting Awards is crazy but I think like they could be lazy like that too in a way you know so they could be lazy I think the other two are said and I think the ne if you're thinking Neer carono won because it's Shogun then you he then you should I think NE carono won because like they're also lazy with the guest categories and um everyone loves Nester carbonel um he's been around the block a billion times right I so that's why I'm like divorcing that from like the show like I think like that's more like why he won than because of Shogun and so like I still think Billy cab would win then in that calculus um I don't know what should I do I don't know this is a tough one now I feel like I mean like cuz this is this is really like the only one I'm thinking about might be the most competitive acting category we have left I'm sure somebody would say well the supporting actor in limited too yeah not the same way that's just more like who the will win this one feels like this is like between two people so here's the thing the only reason that I could see switching to tatan noo for me is like on emy's night when Shogun is already 14 emys and is like steamrolling and like he wins it's you're going to feel like a total idiot sitting there being like why did I think Billy crup was GNA win again like of course he won they're just going to like keep throwing Emmys at this show and like why not like just move him into first maybe I should just do this yeah like I think but then if Billy wins I'll feel so stupid too no because I think like they both make sense and they've always been the top two since Shogun moved to drama right like I think this would be an easy win again I guess that's the thing too like if we're going to hold his loss against him like we were all predicting Billy to win again before Shogun right without question he would have easily won yeah like we were predicting to win again after a loss um so I guess it's just like we have to take into account like how much do we think like how crazy will they go for Shogun and like how much of a fan favorite is yabu what if I I'm gonna delete if you listening everything I just said forget I'm moving tanova on over first I think like that's my that's my thing because it's like like everyone just loved that character so much you know I yes like that yeah like that's my and they obviously like the show so much all right so I'm giving shog gun three act four acting wins now three for me here predicting so but if Billy Crow wins everything I said was right about him winning I think like there like Billy makes sense but I do this is a bad comp too but like like mayor of Easttown won three acting Awards and one of them was not predicted which was Julian Nicholson it this is not the same thing but I think like actors just really love those performances is and also like her performance in the finale of marav E Town was a lot more emotional than the stuff that Katherine H did and W division you know and if you're in terms of Mayor I think tanova would actually be zaves right like just like the the character people loved yeah and Evan won right so but Evan Evan was the favorite though although you you switched to TBS after the Queen's Gambit dominated creative arts I was like no I should stick to Billy but no I'm going to switch I'm switching to toov so now it's at three so the over on her is good I think yeah I think like actually tanoi is the safer pick than Billy I just I guess the re like that's the one thing that really swayed me is sitting here thinking like you're sitting there on Sunday night watching the emys and like Catan nooo wins and it's gonna be like of no like people regular people are going to be like of course he won like that's the Showgun like that show is great people love it you know they're not going to be like oh the third season of the campy Morning Show but like again like I think like he is I'm trying to think did my friend I don't think my friend finished watching Shogun he's definitely the F your favorite character yeah like I think he's like a lot like a lot of Basics like the character you know like obviously a lot of people like Maro too but for a different reason like she is just you know a lot more serious than yeah like yabu was fun and funny he so funny yeah and it's great watching him like you know worm his way into problems and try to get out of them before he can anymore I wish he didn't submit the premiere though because that is not a good episode in general and not the best episode for him yeah so for drama directing Joyce the nominees Z show gun for Crimson Sky the crown for Sleep Deary sleep winning time for R beat La Mr and Mrs Smith for first date slow horses strange games and the Morning Show the overview effect and I have Shogun winning for Crimson Sky yeah it's it's winning Series so I'm not changing anything uh drama writing Joy this one I toyed with changing I'm not gonna lie but I stuck with what I had which is what you have I believe now these are slow horses for negotiating with tigers Shogun for Crimson Sky Mr and Mrs Smith for first date Shogun for Anin the crown for Ritz and Fallout the end and I have slow horses winning for negotiating with Tig I think I'm going to keep a two which might be like crazy that I'm not really thinking about this one while I was tearing my hair out over a supporting actor it it's different obviously because I think there's less contention between Shogun and the bear and like what we were talking about but a lot of the stuff we talked about the writing for comedy I think applies here where it's an idiosyncratic branch that maybe has its own thoughts on things the fact that there are two Shogun episodes here even though I think everyone would pick crimson guy over anen I do think that plays into this a little and slow horses just feels like the writer show I do think you can make if Mr Mrs Smith won this I actually think it might be in second I would not be surprised at all but I think slow horses will end up winning yeah I think something like I think it's kind of hard to predict this category specifically because um you know we've just had succession and one year of the crown dominating this category right and those were incredibly predictable and obvious winners um except for the first year of succession um uh because a lot of people didn't see that win coming I did but I I believe a lot of people or I think the the top prediction was killing Eve or nice and meat um but you know since then it's just been succession the crown and then succession uh succession seccession so I guess if slow horses does win it would most be like 2018 when the Americans won for its series finale and obviously did not win series um but it did win lead actor for Matthew ree which I don't think slow horses is going to do uh for Gary Oldman but that that was like a like one of the signals for me when I won that um like I predicted at that but it was just like they're the writers are like doing their own thing really after they did two years of giving writing to Game of Thrones which like let's be serious like not for those Seasons maybe earlier on in Game of Thrones as run um but you know not for a Mother's Mercy or Battle of the bastards you know like good episodes in other ways but writing not really and then it it gave writing to a hamid's taale in 2017 um which obviously that dominated that ceremony so I think like the the Americans win in 2018 was you know they they didn't give it to Game of Thrones which they could have it was just one Game of Thrones episode then so that the nominees that year were the Americans the crown Game of Thrones hmates tail killing Eve and stranger things just another lifetime uh I yeah so I think like slow horses can still win here but obviously the safe pick is Shogun I just haven't had Shogun the entire time so I feel like I'd be like well you had Mr Mrs Smith yeah I I would more I'd rather go to Mr or Mrs Smith but I think you're just anti-icing Shogun I don't think it's anti-icing I just don't think it to me it's not this is not a category it would win frankly I never thought it was so it's not like I'm like changing my mind I just think it's between those other two shows what was your sense of how the way people talked about Shogun while it was airing because I I felt like you know it wasn't like a lot of people emphasize how amazing the writing is right I think people were impressed by how they translated like you know between English and Japanese and the way they went about doing it like they would write something in English and it be translated and Japanese and with actors and stuff but I don't know if there was like like a lot of phrase for the writing specifically like the way you would talk about like how succession was such a writerly show you know yeah my my sense was big epic show like Game of Thrones es but like make it real and then also like acting discoveries all over the place for people who are not familiar with some of these actors yeah and then like a lot of you know great like scale and scope like some fun battles exploding horses right well that was great when that horse explodes holy that was so much fun oh my God the show was so funny and people don't talk about how funny it is enough uh they don't that's like conclave you're going to really like conclave it's very much like Shogun completely unserious uh anyway I'm sticking with slow horses I don't know I I if I actually think Mr Mrs Smith could win here I think based on like who wrote it the response to the show overall I think people really did like it and I don't know but if Shogun won I guess it's gonna be like duh of course Shogun won but I don't know if Shogun wins I do hope it's for Crimson sky and not an same that's all I ask that would be part for the Academy's course though maybe but the writers Branch his taste as you would say they do so limited series joice this one's pretty easy for the series the nominees again baby reindeer Limited/TV movie categories True Detective night country Fargo Rippling in lessons in chemistry and a baby reindeer winning nothing to say again so limited series movie actress Choice the nominees hereo are jod Foster for True Detective night country Juno Temple for Fargo Bri for lessons in chemistry Naomi Watts for Feud capot versus the swans and Sophia vergaro for grisela True Detective flopped at the creative arts semies Joyce that would that would be the headline there but I don't think it matters and I think Jody Foster is still G to Win It flopped in that it didn't win anything but also it wasn't really favored to win anything so I don't think like it lost but I don't think you can like context is important it just wasn't competitive in most of those categories so I mean I think if anyone sat down before Sunday and looked at all 19 of its nominations they would just say like jod Foster is its best chance and so I'm sticking with her I don't think she's gonna lose yeah I don't like this this phrase we've talked about like feels defaulty to her but I don't know like who else would actually be strong enough to beat her or has a stronger show like she has a stronger show here too I think she has the strongest show I have Juno Temple in second I actually think she could win um I think Fargo was really strong this year people really liked it and they love her um I think a lot of people probably have Brie Larson in second based on lessons in chemistry like overperforming in air quotes at the creative arts enemies but I'm going to stick with Jody I just can't think of a number two I don't think there's like ensus number two here so I have Naomi in second I've had her in second so there you go there's another option right like cuz I think that's actually like again like I think we we know they like those types of performances too um um Feud also won creative art so uh and yeah like I I don't I don't know if she would actually win but I have her in in second and um yeah I I think this is going to be similar to my ration now and supporting actor but I think sometimes just like you just kind of like absorb things like through osmosis like seeing someone in first or just being talked about as the front runner you just kind of almost resign yourself to it in a way so I can see her just not not that she doesn't deserve the win because I think it was a great performance on True Detective but I I think it there is like an element that feels kind of like she's like a default winner here uh for limited series movie actor Joy the nominees are Richard Gad for baby reindeer Andrew Scott for Ripley John Ham for Fargo Tom Hollander Feud capot versus funs and Matt bower for fellow Travelers and I'm got Richard Gad winning for baby reindeer W you're not going to anti-ct him no I think people maybe would be hot for rip and I actually did make a change later but uh not here are you going with Dakota no because of the perfect couple I don't think I don't have a representative for my 2025 Emy nominees Joyce though uh I mean I've had Richard here since before Shogun moved like I put him above hero when they were still here so it even me as the king of the anti-icing baby reindeer Club there's no way he's going to lose this I don't I don't see how he could lose this frankly no speaking of can't lose uh limited series movie supporting actress the nominees are Jessica gunning for baby reindeer Calli Reese for True Detective night country Nava ma for baby reindeer ozza Naomi King for lessons in chemistry deota Fanning for Ripley Diane Lane for Feud capot versus swans and future Emmy presenter Lily Gladstone for under the bridge I have Jessica gunning for baby reindeer maybe this will be the big biggest blowout I was actually just going to say I think this is the biggest blowout there's zero chance she loses this like come on which category should they present first this drama supporting actress can they do them both at the same time can they do all those at the same time yeah ComEd sping actor and then comedy actor yeah do all those just get over with movie limited limited series movie supporting actor this one is contentious still what to do here the nominees are Jonathan Bailey for fellow Travelers Lamor Morris for Fargo Robert Danny Jr for the sympathizer Tom Goodman Hill for baby reindeer John Hawks for True Detective night country Treat Williams for Feud capot versus swans and lisis Pullman for lessons in chemistry and I have Jonathan Bailey for fellow Travelers I think I'm G to go back to RDJ here wow makes a lot of sense just a default winner the internet does not like it but I'm going to do it I actually would maybe go Lamor Morris or Fargo I I think you can make a case for four of these guys to actually win and if you were if I'm sitting I would love for anyone no shade to either of them I would love it for it to be a non arj and non Jonathan winner because that's the only two people we've all been talking about I really think I I think in terms of like industry popularity right now or just like Vibes I have a great Vibe on Lam more Morris people love him right like they love new girl they love the one new girl obviously now this is after way after voting but he's like a breakout on Saturday night and all the cast seems to really like him like he did a lot of campaigning for Fargo it was a great nomination I don't know I think he could win but I'm gonna stick with Jonathan Bailey because what you were saying about like the jod thing I do feel like he just feels like default even with Robert Downey Jr there I feel like he is more default than Robert Downey Jr I I think RJ is more default just because of the way he was talked about with the multiple roles and obviously his profile is bigger and then like we've talked about this before where I feel like when a race seems ostensively weak or someone's show seems weak or a race seems like it might be more competitive than it actually is usually the front runner all long still wins in the end like we saw this last year with comedy actress with quenta Brunson like we talked the entire year about like what to do here without Jean Smart right like will they just default to Quinta Brunson or would they give it to someone new or go back to someone like Rachel brahan for the final season of masel and then it was just quintan which felt defaulty not that she didn't deserve it or wasn't good but it's I guess it's like when you're following it so closely it feels kind of disappointing it was just like the person all along you know um and it's like were they even thinking about this or are they just kind of like following odds like not even our odds but just like there are Vegas odds you know like and I'm sure like they add like Quinta in first too or high and then like last year we also did this with um n Nash BS and clarain because fman overperformed in nominations and N still won in the end um and then you did this with Paul Walter Houser because he switched to Young Mao because you're like he's on the winning show beef um and Blackbird was a nominee for series and I was like no it'll just be like pwh and he still won and then you did it again with Amanda Cipher because the drop out like quote underperformed compared to Pam and Tommy and then you switch to l James and I was like no it's just going to be Amanda and she still won um and then we kind of saw a very similar race four years ago and Lead limited actor with Mark Ruffalo because he like RDJ was on an HBO limited series and there was prehype because he was playing multiple characters twins the show flopped he was the show's only nomination and I know this much is true and then during Noms normal people overperformed a little bit similar to how fellow Travelers did and Paul mcll got in not for series the show didn't get for series and then it felt like maybe like he was like the hot new thing and the Emmys had been kind to younger actors to like jell Jerome had won the the year before Darren Chris had won um and then he was number one in the odds by the time the actual ceremony rode around but Mark still won so it kind of feels like a little bit like this where like the internet wants a certain actor to win but the more famous actor playing multiple rowes on a flop HBO limited series who's also in the MCU would make a lot of sense I just I don't I don't know I don't think I guess we'll see if he won I would obviously would not like I said I think all Tom Goodman Hill too if he won I would not be surprised like it doesn't seem likely but but like I don't I think I think Tim is is more like what you were trying to do when you're trying to make young happen last year maybe I'll eat my words if he does win but it just if it feels more like I mean listen I talked to him so like he was great you know but like when the show came out it it didn't feel like there was actual Buzz about his performance specifically you know even when you're talking about episode 4 right I I don't think he's going to win I'm just saying like if he did win I wouldn't be surprised I guess or I'd be like oh of course he won that kind of thing yeah also there like so like three years ago this race was or not this race but um limited lead actor was uh kind of in flux as well um I mean I had Paul betney winning but that was mostly a hope diction but you and McGregor won for hon which was also a flop for Netflix by their standards and Ryan Murphy's standards too and that also kind of felt like they just were really apathetic towards everything and they just kind of defaulted to um maybe someone a little bit more respected in like a show that's a little bit more up their alley because that's like you know he's playing a real person like Kanab bity so I don't know but G to be tough I I could make a case for Robert Denny Jr certainly and like it would be easy name check but I do think Bailey actually is also just a default choice and I think he also is very well liked I'm Downey won't even be there I bet not that it matters right but he's on Broadway right now I wonder if he'll come who cares then the the show will be shorter it's a little shorter that'd be great uh movie limiting directing this one I did change Nom are Ripley uh baby reindeer for the fourth episode True Detective night country Fargo for the tragedy of the commons Feud kot versus swans for pilot and lessons in chemistry for perau and I have Ripley winning here why because I won three CR I know it's different voting and stuff but I just think it's the filmmaker show and I just like we talked about like I was like baby rinder would be like a real based on the history of this category would be like an outlier to win in this fashion and while I think you could steamroll and like directors are sheep and blah blah blah uh I do think this Zion directing on Ripley is a standout and like that is the filmmaker show and the director show and I think that that will help it win uh I'm just going to keep baby reindeer because it's the Series winner and it doesn't even have that issue last year when Thief had two different episodes and we were all like which one will they go for if they go for one of these you know yep no I I get it I'm just gonna like you're just looking for a place to anti- dick baby rainbow I just think actually though I do think it's like thought of different I just think it's differently and like based on the like we said like the history of the show it's either the show run or the same director right winning this award for the show and like baby reinder would be I think what do we say like the first in years to win without one of those two things being true and so maybe that doesn't matter maybe it does win because it's like steamrolling but I'll stick with Ripley I just think that's also coincidental like I don't think they're actually thinking that well how can you tell coincidental versus like a trend because I think the actual trend is that there's just a lot more like aor who are just writing and directing their own well that's what this is then Ripley would win then but it's like I don't think like they're like riple the they're not thinking like I can't vote for someone because they didn't write entire thing I don't think they're thinking that but I think they look at it differently like I think they would resp like the the baby rinder is your favorite show but in terms of like the directing oh Ripley is like the filmmaker show it's like the crafty thing that I really liked I didn't love it as much as baby reindeer but obviously I really enjoyed it that kind of thing but I don't think I don't think many people are thinking that way and then I also like it's not winning Series so I'm just I'm just not going against the Series winner okay uh for writing this one's much easier baby reindeer Ripley True Detective Fargo uh fellow Travelers in Black Mirror and I have baby reindeer winning congratulations to Richard on his third Emmy and that's it how boring will the show be if it goes like this really boring we just differed on directing and limited series actor supporting actor is that it um and reality so three times we differed everything else we have the favorite or like the second favorite I don't even know like where they can give us a surprise like I don't think they can do it in comedy because I think they are just kind of obvious front runn and Runners up let me ask you this what would be what would you count as a surprise um because bear in mind the ones we picked against were going against the favorite so like if Billy crudup wins that's not a surprise no it wouldn't be need to be someone like it would need to be like Jack right it would need to be anyone who's not in one or two basically I think if Naomi watched one for support limited actress that would be a surprise I know you have her in second but she's like in fourth or fifth in the odds who Naomi Watts for limited series uh movie support actress oh yeah I just I don't even know why I put her in there in second in July but I'm just going to keep her there like why not I think like anyone other than RDJ and Bailey would be great and that's what I want I want any of the other five to win because we deserve that honestly um and yeah I guess like anyone other than jod would be like I don't think Jess is losing or Richard there just not a lot of places where there would be a surprise yeah like I guess like if like Anna or hero lost somehow but I would Liza kenas be a big surprise to you no CU isn't she in second anyway or is Merill in second you think Merl's still in second let me look Merl's still in second no like like any of the other three like Carol Cheryl and Janelle would be ifes anyone beat Elizabeth dii that would be a surprise yes that would be but like we we need something like that we need them to spice it up like honestly the last as much as I love succession and it's great to see it win so many awards in January like it's still it wasn't like a sweeper like Shogun was um but it's also a lot more fun when like there are upsets and there isn't like one show or three shows dominating can't disagree Joyce we're going to do emails here before we go you can email said slugfest goldderby.com Listener questions first one is from Mike is it it's not a game wow still have a writer's block hey Joy and Chris it's me again Mike as usual thanks for reading my email last week and responding to my questions have you guys seen the perfect couple as of this writing I've only seen the first two episodes so far and I'm enjoying it for what it was I get now why the series is on Netflix it's very Netflix I can't imagine as an HBO or Hulu or Prime video or apple show I do like the cast and the dance number in the opening sequence was something I get now why the cast was against it I do want to say that Nicole kimman is so busy on TV right now I know that this has been the narrative for the past few years but wow she is really grinding this year alone she had xats the perfect couple and next month lion is season 2 next year she already has nine Perfect Stranger season 2 and her slate maybe even and on her slate and maybe even two or one or two more shows perhaps Lion in season 3 who knows I can't imagine what her schedule looks like nowadays it must be crazy anyway that's all I just want to talk to you too about Nico Kim's very busy TV career post big little eyes thanks and have a great day that's from Mike did he send this before after Indy wire ran that story yesterday asking if Nicole Kitman is doing too much TV he sent it before but did you think he wrote it it is is is Mike Ben Travers I don't know he could be he's not according to his email but I don't know um Nicole is not doing too much TV let her do what she wants this is great Nicole's great uh I watch spoiler alert if you're watching this I watch the whole thing I finished it last night loved it it is uh I called it like Prestige TV Avengers or cover band every show that I've ever liked is referenced or I was just like I was talking to my friend and I was like did Megan FY just sign on to this because she wanted something White Lotus coated and she was like yes so it's White Lotus it's big little eyes it's the undoing it's the OC with the stupid kid going out on the boat how great was that it's amaz like Sam noola great awful just so great loved them so much me Isaac from black cake I believe right did we watch her on that um we did yeah that was a show was also like this show it just feels like really like the Avengers of prestige TV and in the most Midway the dance sequence is phenomenal loved it every second and the end I love that like that's how it the show ended with Suzanne Suzanne beer in the dance I was like yes uh completely ridiculous twist does the knives out thing where the most famous actor who's not a star not the is obviously the killer which I figured out like maybe three episodes in I guess right like it felt like so obvious that that's who it was going to be uh let's just say I have it well represented in my very early me predictions for 2025 I just love that Suzanne had to convince them to do the flash mob like which is the best part like they all she said she's talked so much about this on like how like Leah was the only one who was down to do it and then she convinced them to do it and I love that she turned down directing the night manager to do this really uh one of my favorite great choices great choices I I got to say loved so much uh Le of dber in this show just loveed him he's like he's my second favorite tag after Eddie kahill on friends wow High Praise but they were all just serving in completely different ways um and I love how Nicole never had the same wig twice I was wondering how many re-shoot there were well they had to pause because of the strikes and then because they they Suzanne talked about like how the the dance number was like the last thing they filmed and they did it um in the new year when they were resuming after the strikes so but yeah and then Nicole's accent like she can do what whatever she wants I don't care but I just love how it just morphed from Australian to American to British it was great I how laughing at it I had so much fun with the show I think it's going to have real staying power because I think people really liked it it's so much fun to watch and I was thinking about like um my my bestie that I met at the US Open the the woman who loved Emily and Paris and I was thinking I hope she's watching this because she would love this so this is exactly the type of like mid dumb show that we were talking about it is really just full Prestige TV uh in the highest caliber and I love how like they're because like they're not like you said like they're not trying to like K who did it like I don't think that's a thing like like there are so many clues that you could easily figure it out but but like the the Tells that like Suzanne does also or they killed me because there was one in I guess it's the finale I don't know but there's like when um when Nicole reveals a lot of things to the family in the living room and then there's just like one line reading by the Killer and then there's just like one like shot of the Killer where you're just like okay please make it more obvious I love this it was great I really had a good time with the show I can't figure out this is the question for when we do our early picks but I gotta figure out how I he get Le shriber in there versus like how the other Netflix limited series will split their car actors we could talk about this offline but I had a question about black rabbit where I was like you Jude Law and Jason baitman are they both leads for that show would you say they would probably split because I I think Jude is the lead for and Jason is Jason is his like alcoholic brother okay great then let's say they'll split because then I'll get Le then there we go okay that's perfect uh love the show so much it was one of my most enjoyable watches of this year so far uh Harold de is back Choice Aiden emailed us at slugfest at gold.com hi Joyce and Chris I appreciate your reaction to ear my earlier email if you remember Joyce he sent an email way before the Fest oh I I remember on August 22nd and it was just classic just dropping fire takes uh that a lot of them seem true I will admit I was probably wrong about Amelia Perez it's may be looking to place a Tiff also these creative arts emmies were really something I think the main thing here is that it shuts the door and anything but the bear Shogun and baby reindeer winning their respective series Awards True Detective losing all the limited series Tech Awards to Ripley makes me think they don't even like it that much and I'm very close to predicting Bri Larson to upset in best actress Nester carbonel winning makes me all the more confused of how C Jarvis did not get nominated although the former is very memorable role Michaela Cole winning for Harold the mod episode of Mr Mrs Smith was my favorite thing ever and I guess we were all overthinking a little about John Bernthal a month ago I might have been against the jam Lee Curtis win but ice chips did actually win me over that being said all this doesn't really help decide the contentious awards for me drama writing comedy supporting actress and limited series supporting actor I think I might predict a full Shogun sweep including supporting actor but I'm likely dismissing the p for slow horses all because Jonathan price didn't win I do think the bear is just incredibly strong though and I'll probably predict that for six or seven wins on the main show Jonathan Bailey is giving real Paul Walter Hower Vibes but I generally don't think Robert Downey Jr is out of the running lastly the room next door winning the golden line is unhinged it makes sense and apparently night is good I just can't have anything that's from Harold and mod um well I think probably I wouldn't be surprised that a lot of people just predicted uh Shogun and the bear seven for seven and just hope to get you know five six out of seven right right that's the safe play so as we've talked about in this whole episode I think the hacks wins are very solid and it'd be strong to place your bets on those three wins hack season three can just repeat season one uh blanked at creative arts and then win three above the line and I think supporting actor in a limited series is really a coin flip and you can make a strong case Robert dowy Jr like you did or Jonathan Bailey just being like Paul Walter Houser and kind of people just defaulting him to win I do think Paul was Stronger because he also won the globe which uh Jonathan was not even nominated for he does have that critic Choice Award though no so so does Paul and N remember they won those Critics Choice Awards and those emies exactly won your part uh room next door I winning Venice I was like best picture Nomine I guess we toyed with that sure I I don't know uh oh what one more thing about Nicole though yeah you got to respect anyone who can drop Netflix mush like the co uh The Color Purple the perfect couple the same weekend she can win the vulpi cup for baby girl yeah someone who can do both one of our truly I think one of the greatest actresses of all time and does anybody not like Nicole Kidman that was another thing I was like like if you're gonna bet on her to get an Oscar nomination this year I would as even as a lone nominee I think that's pretty strong because like everyone loves Nicole kimman she should have way more Oscar nominations than she does so hopefully like she can do it this year for for baby girl um also unfortunately her mom died and she couldn't be at the ceremony very sad I don't want I hate putting people against each other pause but since we do that as a lone nominee and I have both these people in right now but if you ask me who's got higher like a broad like Angelina jie versus Nicole kimman if it comes down to one of them I was like I understand Angelina J has the batty like first per like biopic role is the erotic Thriller versus the erotic Thriller but I was like no one dislikes Nicole kimman like at all and I feel like that like in terms of that if it ends up being between the two of them for one spot maybe Nicole kimman has the edge because of her Universal uh it would also be fitting for her to be nominated for neurotic thrower since she won her Oscar against Diane Lane in Unfaithful yes so uh yeah these other these Emy I don't know those are like the ones he picked are the toughest ones but I do think that the The Tide is turning maybe D taov yeah I think yeah we're recordings on Tuesday do you think by Tuesday you think by Sunday he'll be in first place maybe I don't know like how much do our changes lift him let's take a look you need to uh flush the cat so all right hang on I I don't even know how close it was between the two of them um hang on I'm flushing the cash this is riveting this is what we get paid the big bucks for choice this is it uh let's see right now it's they're both at 5 to1 Billy CR has 1112 and has 703 so those are like that's everyone so there's there's a lot there's going to be hundreds of people who are not going to update at all too so can tatano make up like a 400 Gap yes I don't know I feel like we need to just count people who actually updated in the past month all right well let's look at experts this is something to bring up I think at some point Choice how we how we how we track this stuff there there are a lot of like uh old predictions here well we We'll add that to the list to bring up uh in terms of experts Billy at eight tatano Bano at six I think he'll actually pass him in the experts once people when everyone updates on like Saturday basically yeah yeah uh next email is from our good pal Gabriel nice emailed us at slugfest at goldderby.com hi Joy and Chris we need Amy Adams to win best actress for night so she can go on stage and deliver Her speech entirely in wolfs since Chris mentioned Gabriel Lael last week I was wondering if either of you have seen the Netflix limited series brand new cherry flavor he has just one scene in it where he passes out and face plants into a pie or maybe it was a pizza but the point is having seen his great performance in the fabl men I thought it was hilarious that he that was all he got to do back then I was bored out of my mind watching Shogun sweep the creative arts emies some of the Twins were deserved like costumes and cinematography and main title design but the prosthetic makeup and visual effects wins are kind of a joke that Branch voting is supposed to prevent also I pulled a Joyce and didn't listen to myself after asking last week whether Nester carbel could win just because he plays a memorable character on the vot most voters' favorite show turns out the price is not right on the bright side I'm elated that my beloved Ripley won several Tech Awards including visual effects for an incredible boat scene which was actually done with boene which was actually done with a boat in a pool and a green screen I was likewise thrilled that bluee Samurai won animated program while I was sort of pulling for scavengers r upset because I want that show to get any boost I can for a potential renew from renewal from Netflix which seems unlikely at this point bluee Samurai is my favorite show in the category so I'm certainly not complaining now for some questions why did you guys think X-Men 97 was the bigger show than blueeyed Samurai the ladder was a massive hit on Netflix and I saw so many people raving about it back when it was released if X-Men 97 took over the Ze guys couldn't it simply be because it came out more recently and had a weekly release number two after the room next store won the Golden Lion do you see it making into best picture with the mix reviews to Joker FY ad do I had an open slot there so I threw it in but I'm not confident at all thanks for reading I look forward to hearing your final picks especially for limited series directing to steal an idea from little gold men the award for best log line for the beay goes to Chris for something he said in a previous episode quote guys in like t-shirts yelling you're loyal listener and that's from Gabriel I was like I read this before and I was like great job B that's a really funny line what was that even about the bear guys in t-shirts yelling that's the show I mean that's a lot of things though lots that you want to hear from Gabriel Joyce um I mean like X-Men was big like Bluey Samurai was also big but I think it's more like X-Men is populace big and blueeye Samurai is like um Insider a dig and like we also said last week it could win because it won the jured awards and it did so X-Men is the brand name everyone knows X-Men so that's what I mean by and also like Nostalgia too cuz a lot I as anybody I know X-Men or blueeyed Samurai they're going to know X-Men they might not know blueeyed Samurai so that's what I mean by bigger show yeah but obviously it didn't matter um yeah and then I mean like night again I wanted to do well so everyone is forced to say night pitch here's all I'll say about night pitch the trailer was absolutely Dreadful right like I think that's like pretty oh I like the trailer I had no issues with the trailer Oh I thought it was so bad just made it look really bad then the reviews came out and it was like it's so much better than the trailer don't pay attention to the trailer but a lot of the reviews are also like it's not very good so I think it's probably like pretty good and like very watchable and I don't think it's going to be a major Oscar factor that would be my take based on I think like that was I think I mentioned this last week too like this was like what I thought was happening like the trailer was cut a certain way to make it as broad appealing and Commercial as possible so it leaned in more on the funny stuff and the jokes and did not focus on any darker those are the jokes um yeah those are the jokes you you don't like those jokes that they included uh the one thing I'll say about it though based on the reviews is I wonder if it's a departed situation where actually she could get in because it seems like it's not like the even though it was positioned by many Amy Adams stands and devotees as like her Oscar win it feels like the movie itself is like much more like you're saying like mainstream kind of Comedy like broad appealing and I'm like what if it ends up being like The Departed where it's like she ends up winning for this really fun role that actually is not Oscar at all in quotes because people just like it I don't know if she'll win but I don't think she is completely out of the race like a lot of people had like did with their knee drk reactions after the trailer when they were like I got to drop her this looks like yeah I I've never had her in you had her in I think you have her in um and I here's what I'll say about her I think it's good for her that there have been recent winners in that category too that are would qualify as a typical Oscar wins yeah I I definitely think she can get in still even though I don't have her in and I never did and I think the fact that it's actually like more mainstream and funny and like a movie that like people might just like would be better than having some like Oscar medicine kind of performance yeah also people kind of stop asking her about like Oscars and if she thinks about Oscars when she takes roles like just don't ask any after that I uh Gabriel Lael I love did we talk about this last week I don't remember Snack Shack did I tell you I watch that on the plan yes you mentioned that but I have not watched brand you got watch it Joyce it's on Prime now you can watch it it's so good love Gabriel love about um and room next door I put it in for best picture I think that's like there's plenty of open spots let's say in best picture so uh I don't know if I have it in anywhere anymore I don't know I my resp my my take on the room next door having not seen it we probably see it New York Film Festival is that it's like a m it's actually also broad appealing it seems to me in terms of like the knocks I see are like oh it's like all the Almo like the the Almo devari stuff has gotten like lost somewhat in Translation is his first English language movie and I actually think that makes it more maybe appealing to normies so I'm like I think it could get in um I don't know I I feel like it there could also just be like a discrepancy in terms of the reception well one thing I was thinking too with this we we'll get more into Oscars next week I guess when we do this but I was like a movie like Saturday night which I think is was really fun and I obviously liked but I'm like does that have any does it a largely inter a much larger International block of Voters would they give a single about Saturday Night Live I mean this is something that happens every year where we're just like certain movies just feel very American and that seems like very so so I was like room next door I feel like could be non-american too right like it's got both maybe I don't know I don't know uh all the other stuff here that Gabriel said interesting though for the emys I don't know he's on the Ripley train too we'll see how wrong that is when it doesn't win anything so doesn't matter I mean I don't think any of its wins were surprising either like they they weren't I would say they were mostly expected like the boat the boat episode was great cinematography like obviously cinematography is so good apparently Robert Ellwood is retiring did you see that Joyce he apparently said that in The Press Room so but no one else picked it up like it's nowhere let me see let's see if it I want to actually see if anybody did retire if it's if it's real I'm Googling uh I guess I'll look it up maybe he did I don't know just just ending with a bang I mean why not but if he did retire that's sad because he's one of the great cinematographers of all time but he's what he's 70 something now so you know B in so Joyce judgmental TV fan is back yes you'll be surprised to know he or she took issue with the creative arts emies great let's hear it hi Joyce and Chris have we ever seen a lazier emys than this we haven't had the main ceremony yet and Shogun already has won 14 Emmys don't get me wrong the show is very good and I expected it to perform well at creative arts especially in areas like production design and costumes but it's clear that the voters across all branches are lazy and just vote on name recognition no offense to Nester carbel whose performance I enjoyed but I don't think he wins guest actor if people actually paid attention to what was nominated what are your thoughts heading into Sunday ceremony is there any possible way Shogun doesn't sweep uh I think it it might not sweep in that it might not go seven for seven but I think it would sweep in that it would win the most Awards so we have a winning series actor actress supporting actor and direct so it can't go seven for seven because it only could other win writing so it goes six for I mean it could go seven for seven if it wins um or it could go six for seven if it seven writing it it didn't get a supporting actress nomination so it could win writing and that would be a sweep it would feel pretty lazy yes so it's yeah like like I said earlier I think they have just really gotten lazier since Co honestly yeah so it's just like they prioritize the the top like you know two or three shows and this was OB like the second and mov to drama like we knew it was going to be the number one not not like number one in predictions too but also like the the strongest show overall cuz it was already a claimed it was doing well um you know viewers wise um and like fan reception so this was going to be a show that like they were in a way like forced to pay attention to almost I think that's the thing too like I think if they just kind of hear like voters I'm talking about like if they just hear a show being discussed out there or just like they're being bombarded with I don't know like invites to like q&as and events and stuff or their friends are just talking about watching the show like I think they might feel pressure to check it out themselves too it's like you know a little bit of fomo I guess um and you know I'm not surprised that most of them like it it's a good show right but there are also other good dramas in the mix too yeah it just feels like I don't know I this year was a weird year because none of the I don't think they like before shog like none of these shows really stood out I think that's why people were hoping Shogun would move yeah and and they they caused this it moved moved and now we're going to have three shows dominating right so I I don't know maybe next year it'll be better I I guess what I mean is like this none of these shows are like like next year's potential lineup is a lot stronger it's still that's what we think because a lot of it'll be a lot of returning nominees we presume and and it could still be like a sweep right like White Lotus could sweep or last of us could sweep or whatever right but like there are potential like way more diverse options to choose from next year no one's going to be asking for unlimited series to move into drama no because we're going to like like right now people are probably predicting to fill out their drama lineup with old nominees right like you can do it right now with the White Lotus um Severance Last of Us squid game slow horses which will be back bad sisters which probably just missed the last time you know Diplomat is is back what is that like seven already Yellow Jackets could be back yeah I I think it was lucky to get in last time like they could they could do House of the Dragon again you know like right you could fill out eight right now and that was I that was the thing like this year people were upset that they actually had to work to like figure out the eight and they didn't they couldn't like quote know it ahead of time um and that's why they wanted to move so like I don't think anyone's going to be pushing for a limited series to move to drama next year no email us at slugfest atg goldderby.com this one is from Nina Joyce hi Jo and Chris how the hell does the idol have an Emmy and better call SA does not um I guess better call saw should have done a dance number to win choreography I love when people get mad about this stuff because reminds me of like when Suicide Squad won like best makeup you know which just is very funny to me like oh I can't believe suicide squad has more Oscars than like you know name I mean it won an award for an element that was actually redeemable yeah I I like when that happens because I'm like it deserves to win just because the movie sucks or the show is bad doesn't mean like there aren't elements of it that are good yeah so I mean I didn't watch the idol but from what I've heard like the music aspects of the show were good I watched the first one it was not good and you know I love Sam Levens and stuff but no not for me um I mean yeah it's more like I understand why people do it but it it's more that like you're upset on the loser on the behalf of the loser like yes better call no 's right that'ss should should have an Emmy out of 53 nominations uh this one's from Dylan another creative arts Emmy question uh hi Joyce and Chris I was a bit surprised by shogun's Emmy Hall at the creative arts emm to be honest took me several tries to even make it through the pilot and while I thought some things were interesting I honestly don't get the love for this show why do people like get from Dylan funnily enough I had the same combo with someone last week wow what did they say they also struggle to finish the pilot and I'm like you're not the only one the Pilot's bad it's really bad and it's I feel like a lot of people are being performative when they say how good the pilot is I mean your mileage may vary but I can't imagine that you can call that one of its best episodes a good show with a bad pilot there's nothing wrong with that but it's not it's the pilot just like so slow and introduces too many characters in a non uh in a way that I found confusing and also really un uninspired I don't know what the word you know what I mean like I just was like yeah I couldn't no because like you because you you watched you started the pilot before I did and you were and like a lot of my friends also watched the pilot before I did and they were all saying the same thing like I told you one of my friends took three sittings to get through the pilot and was just really tough and then I started and I felt the same way like it's it's really a grind and they're just kind of doing a lot in the episode and I've said this before like the flashback and the beginning of the second episode should be in the first episode like that provides so much more context and it's a great show I really enjoyed watching but after the pilot I was almost like am I I kept going because like we need to but if I was just a regular person maybe coin flip with I would have actually watched more yeah like so the person I was talking to last week I told them I was like if if you can get through the pilot like I promise you the show gets better the pacing gets better the humor gets better like it's actually a funny show yeah really um they were also concerned about the violence and I'm like the violence is actually not that bad like the the premiere has the the boiling man the guy getting boiled but like the other like yeah like people get beheaded and there's zuku but it's really not that bad and like a lot of the violence also played for humor like like hero Sun dying like his stupid Sun dying that was hilarious man that was so funny a very funny yeah so I think like to answer why do people like it I think it's once you get past the pilot there are a lot of qualities to like about shun definitely definitely so uh this one's from Hattie who emailed us a slugfest at Gold der.com hi Joyce and Chris uh I was so sad to see James Earl Jones died on Monday but I noticed a lot of bots referring to him as an egot winner in their obituaries I always thought non-competitive Awards don't count from Hattie he's he's a non-competitive egot winner though yeah because um his Oscar is honorary yes those don't count those are not real egots real egots are pesik and Paul who got the according to the accurate Wikipedia page yeah they have they have grids of the real otters and the non-competitive Otters non-competitive egot winners include Barbara strand she doesn't have a Tony Liza Manelli uh Grammy missing James R Jones with his honorary Oscar yes Harry bellonte uh herel humanitarian award so similar in the honorary Oscar territory though not officially one Quincy Jones also also Herold Award winner and Frank Marshall who won the Irvin G thalberg award yeah so those are non-competitive like to be a real egot you need to win competitively yes um but yeah I saw a lot of those uh that copy and headlines yesterday and tweets uh and I'm like you're wrong and bad because this is easily googleable and I I know what happened because the outlet that broke the news claimed this and then a lot of people a lot of other outlets that picked it up did not double check you could say he's a non-competitive egot winner yes you just have to say non-competitive because there's a difference between competitive Oscar or competitive Grammy or Tony and honorary yeah so he does have an eot just not a competitive yeah he has a non-competitive egot so P ball and I guess Elton John also an eot Choice yeah he was the previous one from January uh because of the Emmy for his Dodger Stadium yes show but he won that competitively like no one was like if if you walk into a ceremony knowing you're you're already going to leave with a trophy that's not a real eot you have to sit through the ceremony and wait for your name to be announced after the envelope is open to be a real egot right it's a Nuance but it's accurate we care about accuracy here this one's from Scott who emailed us it's l gold derby.com speaking of ot's joice hi Joyce and Chris uh pacing aall achieved egod status with which of the pwt triplets did it from only Ms in the building that song is so catchy and so good that it's actually quite annoying which is exactly why it needed to win but I fear now I must resign myself to the show not winning anything else that's from Scott well it won two other Awards I guess Scott means maybe above the line maybe yeah I I'm emboldened by this performance of the show this season and I think it's one three creative arts enies and I think Merl's win is obviously not out of the question for this year but I think next year really stands a very good chance of winning something I think with the bear having been not as successful through season 3 uh with the rest of the field being what it is I don't know I could see like Martin schw winning next year maybe one of the supporting actors winning you never know yeah uh which it's the third episode today that dropped I don't remember which one that we watch the first seven I know I watched them all at once like they haven't sent new ones right I don't get the emails okay um but yeah they still haven't sent the final three but I'm trying to remember which one was the third episode like I think this the season four is really great um so and then like we've discussed like it has a lot of potential in supporting I think I think most of it's a splashy guest stars will have to go supporting um yeah right now Nar pending because she she's in two of the first seven so she could be in the last three and then she'll have to uh she she'll be for of guest according to the credit she's actually in three of the seven I mean she was in one three and seven I went back and watched like she's in the credits for 1 three and seven so maybe she's on like the phone or like they count her for Instagram like does that count but she's Credit in three epis but like there well because there's one episode later on where it's like it it could have been her voice but we find out later that it's not so according I went I count it out according to the credits Merill so far is 1 three and seven Eugene levu is 135 and seven Z has more than Eugene and Eva Eva Lori is 135 and S Zach is 1356 and 7 kumal Nani is 2346 and seven Richard K is 2346 and 7 Jane Lynch is 1245 Molly shann is 14567 and Davon Joy Rand is 2 three four five six so all of them should get to five it seems yeah cuz the only people still under or like not at four basically because I would expect all of them to be in at least one of the last three but what was she in in three Merl I don't well I also don't remember which episode that was so that's the problem but I I did I mean I'm telling like in she's in the credits like we said that could be like a phot you know maybe it's a photo of her who knows like I don't I actually didn't go back and rewatch The episodes but I just looked at the credits I don't even if she's in two like she still make it but is that is that about her no because they didn't talk to with her coaster I don't know maybe after we watched the episode I haven't watched it in a month so yeah but she's well my point is is like she's not like a huge part of this season no but she could still be like guest eligible yes definitely she I think of all of them I think she's the most likely to be guest eligible yeah um and yeah like it could get like I don't know like Zach or like Eva into supporting who are really great this season I think Melissa McCarthy would would be guested I don't even I can't see her coming back me neither in the last three you know so she just has the one episode um but I don't know you know hopefully it'll get back into writing and directing next year too because they miss both this year yeah uh last one Joyce before we go email us at slugfest gold.com but this one's from Seth and he did just that hi Joyce and Chris this one's really for Joyce Joyce what are your thoughts about the current state of men's tennis they built up this whole narrative about the American men heading into the semi-finals of the US Open but then nothing happened I saw a lot of people online who were really bored by the final but I feel like it was refreshing to have a final that wasn't so predetermined relatedly do you think maty is ever going to win another slam that's from Seth well there was a lot of um hype going to semi because it was an All-American semi on home soil um and it was an un unexpected matchup um because no one had that semi in their draw when they did draw predictions three weeks ago um so and it was the first All-American semi um for the men in a grand slam uh since 2005 so it's like exciting obviously and then it it guaranteed the first American male finalist in a grand slam since 2009 so also exciting I I don't know if they mean what they mean by an uh not predetermined final I guess the opponents Because the actual matchup like yanx Center was the favorite the whole time like that was like easily straight sets like I think most people predicted straight sets like maybe Taylor Fritz could have gotten a set and he should have won the third set because he served for it and he got broken um but yeah there was just like sorry to Taylor like he he was the severe Underdog in that match since yanuk leveled up this year so I guess if they if they mean like no one predicted a sinner in Fritz final that is true um so the you know the state of men's tennis like we had yannik and Carlos alaras splitting the for lams this year so it's like they are definitely like the the new guard leading the this next generation of you know like number one number two like Carl is number three right now but like you know like slam potentially since the big three era is uh on the downturn and they're both born into 2000 so it's like we've skipped like two generations of male players already uh so I I think like Yanik and Carlos will probably um not dominate as hard as the big three did but they'll probably be like leaders of the pack and uh Nole if he's still motiv moated might go try to go for 25 I think this year he was just motivated by Olympic gold and he got that so he he can retire right now but he has said he doesn't want to so I think it's just him um you know next let next year we'll see how he resets and if he's going to chase 25 because also people keep moving the goal posts for him like once like he cleared like 20 and 22 and he hit 24 now it's like we got to like clear Margaret core they did the same thing to Serena Williams when hit 22 with Stephy is like now she got to clear Margaret Court when Margaret like most of her slams were one in the pre-open era but anyway um and then for medy I do hope he wins an our slam so he was born in 96 so like that that generation was first predicted to like win more slams since they're the generation after the big three and they've only won one so far and that was his um and he is the the self-proclaimed hardcord specialist but has one hardcour slam and ytic now has two and uh he's had some Heartbreakers in Australia the last couple years so I hope he can do it but you know just like with Awards it it depends on the field and how other people do and you just don't know who you're going to face in the final so it always tough yes uh that's my assessment of I love it no that's great you can email us at slugfest goldderby.com we'll be back here Sunday night first we're going to be live Joyce oh yeah yes then we'll record our we'll record a show after the Emmys to recap what happened yes that'll post Monday like in the Wii hours very early Monday morning then I think on Monday we're also going to record our emy's 2025 picks yes that'll post Tuesday yes and then back on regular schedule for Thursday we'll go back to the Oscars yes what a time this is a great time for us we're really like rocking it um you should also feel so much better about your 2025 Emmy predictions since I first pitched it like three weeks ago there's been so much more news with like you know handmaid's tail confirmed to come back into spring that in places we got the franchise trailer yesterday yeah what you think of that um you know it was a trailer I gotta say I pulled out my whole list I thought I I have like a lot of shows and a lot of like Chris faves we'll see that'll obviously not be real but you know hope springs how many nominations do you have the perfect couple getting several truly right now I have if we move baitman or so you said bitman would be supporting I don't know I was just what for our purposes what do you want to do I I don't know you you can decide we don't know anything we don't know what they're gonna say if B is reporting I'll have one two three four nominations and I'm toying with series as well for limited series but I have other options that I think will be more probably likely for series but I think the acting on the show will get in because I think the actors will really like it well to to prep for this too you know I did my own prep yesterday I watched ass American Sports story oh how was that no well I can't really talk I can tell you offline can't oh tell me after we stop this but let me just say I don't have that supremely represented H interesting you can tell me if that's wrong I'll make my picks I mean I don't know if what wrong all right we'll see you Sunday chice talk then bye [Music]