NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks: Teams to Take and Teams to Avoid in your Survivor Pools.

what's up everybody we are back with another NFL season and that means another season of Survivor picks the goal of this video that we'll be posting week Le to help you make the most informed and educated decision when it comes to making your Survivor picks each week I know a few people that left in the comment section that they actually won their leagues last year and that makes me incredibly happy to hear hoping to get much more League winners this year as well as always like the video importantly subscribe to the channel so you get to see this content each week for your Survivor picks and let me know in the comment section what you're thinking this week if you got any questions I'm happy to answer them um it's meant to be very interactive I'm going to go a little bit slower this video and kind of lay the groundwork um as it the first video of the season and I want to review each column to talk about what their meaning is and what their importances in terms of Survivor so the spread is the the Vegas line that's put out there and that is the projected winning margin by the favored team so the Bengals here are projected on average to win this game by nine points that's what the minus 9 UM signifies and if you look more towards the bottom of the chart the lions are only projected to win by three three and a half points on average when they play this game that spread line translates directly to this money line um in the next column which really is just used to calculate this odds per % chance to win it's a direct correlation there and so I'm using this money line to see what the percentage chance to win that Vegas is implying for each and one of these games obviously again you look at the Bengals an 81 a half% chance to win that game outright is much better odds than the Rams um facing off the Lions the Dolphins facing off the Jags Etc and finally we have columns for home and away and divisional games and if you watch these videos before you know how much importance I set for those two categories because over 70% of all the Survivor upsets and all the favored teams uh upsets happen in two situations either that team is playing a road game or they are playing a divisional game so if you can pick teams that are favored by three and a half points or more and if you can pick home non divisional games doesn't even matter you could throw darts and you're going to win that pick 75% of the time just with that strategy alone now when you get to have a more nuanced approach and put even more strategy in it you have a lot better chance um to get your picks correct and to keep going farther in your Survivor League just as important as all those factors is looking at the schedule preview for each team because again there is so much strategy that goes into picking Survivor yes the 49ers have a great matchup against the Jets where they projected a win by four and a half points but they are going to be favored by far more points when they host New England in week four I bet you that's a 14-point spread and they have a 90% chance to win that game so just because the Jets are or sorry the 49ers are favored against the Jets this week there are going to be much more better opportunities down the road in the near future um so it's good to consult the schedule and pick out strategically when you think the best time for each team will be obviously the NFL season is in flux and things change teams get injured and the landscape is different but it's good each week to review the schedule and to figure out okay if not this week then when for this next team and with that let's get into the picks I always start out with games that you should be a little bit weary of um want to want to sometimes provide some caution with some of the teams that might jump out the page as more solid teams but give some maybe advice and heat some warning there because just because a team is good or you think that you know they have a favorable matchup it does doesn't mean it's always the right time to make the pick either and I think that situation really applies for the charters this week um the charters are you know a solid team and they're facing the Raiders at home who the Raiders are pretty poor football team and had one of the top picks in the draft but you could say the same thing about the Chargers as well just a top five pick this last year I'll be with Justin Herbert hurt most of the Year couple of reasons this scares me is that the Chargers now losing Keenan Allen at wide receiver don't have a ton of weapons on offense Austin Eckler is also out of the picture so you have outside of Justin Herbert a very new offensive in terms of weapons around Justin Herbert the running back and the wide receiver room is completely different and very inexperienced with this Personnel you also have new offensive coordinator and new head coach this year for the Chargers so a lot is in flex and I don't really know what kind of Chargers team we're going to come out and see week one also makes uh me very worryed that again here you see they're a divisional game this is a Raiders team that plays their divisional opponents very tough just last year the Raiders on the road went into Arrowhead went into Kansas City as 10o underdogs and beat the Chiefs Raiders team against divisional opponents is something that I'm always afraid of um more so than some other divisional matchups it's something about the division rivalry here with the Raiders and the chip on their shoulder they have that makes it very dangerous again this Raiders team went into Kansas City and had an upset last year this Raiders team isn't too different they got another tight end in the draft Brock Bowers who's more of a wide receiver than anything he's a very dangerous weapon they did lose Josh Jacobs um but he didn't have too great of a year last year anyways the defense for the Raiders is slowly picking up while the Chargers defense is kind of on the decline in very aging so all that to be said I would think long and hard before taking the Chargers this week week in your Survivor League next pick I want to heed some warning against is the bills here you know this this is a team that's favored by sizable amount the second most in week two at six points here at home hosting the Cardinals here what concerns me about the bills is much like the Chargers they lost a huge piece of their offense this offseason when Stefan Diggs had traded to the Texans for a second round pick the guys that are left to pick up a slack in this wide receiver room are very young and inexperienced now Josh Allen is a great quarterback and they have he still got weapons at running back in tight end but it concerns me with the Bills wide receiving room what kind of offensive output are they going to have early on I think as the season progresses this offense is going to be running like a well oil machine under the Joe Brady offense there in Buffalo but right out of the gate it might take a little bit of growing pains for these young receivers to figure out their role in this offensive system and that is that makes me a little bit concerned for the bills looking at their opponent and the Cardinals this is a team that's also on the up while the Cardinals have a pretty poor defense and that's why I think the bills have such an edge this game their offense has a ton of weapons in this recent NFL draft they got um Marvin Harrison from Ohio State just a standout wide receiver that is going to make an impact right away you got Trey McBride at tight end that was incredibly dangerous in the back half of the year when him and Kyler Murray synced up when he came back from injury and James Conor running back it seems to keep getting better with age uh being able to run both between the tackles and catch the ball out of the back field very Dynamic there so the Cardinals have weapons they're able to put up points um what's going to really hurt the Cardinal here is their defense but these are two teams that I'm not sure what to expect this year again I think they're kind of trending in opposite directions the Cardinals going up and the bills trending down so just something I would personally stay away from in week one those are the only two games that I'm really cautious about extremely cautious about the charterers game I think the bills you can get away with but there are definitely warning signs there um for my best pick it's hard to deny a team with a top spread and um in such a a difference in odds to win compared to the rest of the teams the only team this week that has an 80 plus perc chance to win uh that's usually a pretty good sign they're home the Bengals they're not playing a divisional opponent the Patriots were a top bottom three team last year getting the third pick in the NF draft they took a rookie quarterback who will not even be starting this game against the bills they're going with to Kobe Brett the Patriots here much like um the charters do not have a ton of established weapons on offense ra Andre Stevenson is a running back and he's a solid running back but he's not nearly all that explosive their wide receiver room might be the most inexperienced in all football along with that the Patriots offensive line is just decimated um and really one of the worst units in the league here the Patriots are going to struggle to put up points just like you saw last year and I think it's even gonna be um potentially even worse because again they didn't make too many offseason moves to revamp that offense and the quarterback they did take in the draft is not starting this game and then when you look at the Bengals they're nice and healthy which has really uh been their Achilles heel the last few years with Joe burrow our quarterback staying you know coming in the season fully healthy great weapons with Jamar Chase and T Higgins one of the best wide receivers tandems in the NFL running back they did lose Joe Mixon also to the Texans um but they have a pretty solid uh running back room as they picked up Zach moss and then you have seconde running back Chase Brown um who's looking to get a much bigger load this year too for both the defense of the B Teams the Bengals defense is definitely nothing to write home about um the Patriots defense is very solid as it always has been but it's going to be interesting to see how that defense holds up under the new regime without Bill bich there now gerod Mayo head coach is um being praised for his defensive prowess and that's the position inside of the ball that he played um I just personally think that the Patriots are really going struggle to put up points here if the Bengals can put up 21 which I'm very confident saying they can do that with this offense and with Joe burrow I think they win this game easy so I think this is not a trap at all I think the Bengals here uh are the best pick by far but you're not like we talked about there's always strategy and Survivor and you're not always going to pick the quote unquote best pick uh because there are situations down the road where the Bengals are certainly a good team to take here although picking a team against the Patriots will probably be a very lucrative strategy this year but there's also value um in taking a team that potentially is not going to be favored by nine points all the time may be below average team but they just find themselves in a very favorable situation with a weak opponent and that's the cawks this week the Seahawks here are facing the Broncos who again were a pretty poor team last year they had according to Pro Football Focus the worst statistical defense in all the NFL and that is really concentrated within their front seven they cannot stop the they could not stop the run for anything last year and even some of their great defensive talents like Justin Simmons and Patrick ceran at cornerback um the secondary really couldn't fill the holes that that defense had so they had a lot of struggle there and much like the Patriots the Broncos do not have a lot of weapons on offense Cordon ston is their number one wide receiver but he has not been flashing off the page um the running R room is constantly been rotating and injured so that doesn't help and now they have a a rookie quarterback B next he spent five years in college uh did pretty well last year but having a rookie quarterback that's never seen NFL game uh and a pretty poor team as it is uh you know could be some rough Ro Waters right away for the Seahawks team the value comes in that again this is not a team you're going to be looking at each week that you look looking for a Survivor this is not even a team that's going to be favored the majority of the weeks this is not an above average football team and that's really where the value comes in sex are at home against a non-divisional opponent um that is very weak that's where the tremendous amount of value here in this week comes in and again look at the SE the schedule for the Seahawks and take a look at this bottom line second to last line here and look at their schedule through week 17 I really like to avoid teams that are playing on the road especially a below average team like the Seahawks so I'm not I'm really not considering that too much and the only place where I see on the schedule that you would take them on the road might be against the Patriots but you're looking at the schedule and you might pick them against the Giants you might pick them at home against Minnesota depending how uh the quarterback play works out there but you there's not a lot of opportunities to take the Seahawks here I find it hard to believe that there are many opportunities if any where the Seahawks are favored by 4 and a half at any point for the rest of this season and again that's where the relative value of the Seahawks really comes in this week and what makes this pick even more valuable again this is not a good Seahawks team they're not even projected to have that many wins this season which which makes it valuable but also makes it risky so consider your risk here too but for the Seahawks they are projected to win seven games this year it will be unlikely for them Vegas is saying for them to win eight games or more so again this the Seahawks wins will be hard to come by this year they're not going to be always it's apparent is this one against the Broncos where they should win and again I think there's a lot of value in taking the Seahawks this week for the strategy of it now if you're in a small League where you don't think you're going to be going 12 15 weeks then it's probably a little bit too risky of a pick but if you are in a pool with hundreds if not thousands of people it's going to go down to the wire end of the season and it's the Strategic picks early on that really sets you up to win the League's later as the season gets long in the tooth those are the games I really want to call out in terms of the ones that you should be cautious on what I think the best pick is and what I think the best value pick is wanted to talk about the other games while we got the time here for the Bears at home versus Titans this is going to be interesting as you're seeing the first look of Caleb Williams in a really uh revamped Bears offense for a lot of different reasons you got DeAndre Swift as a new running back there you got Keenan Allen and Romo dun at wide receiver that are new this year um connecting with DJ Moore who just got paid big time this off season uh who was one of I think he had the sixth most receiving yards in the season last year to a very talented wide receiver room and running back to pair with this first overall pick with Caleb Williams the defense for the Bears quietly dominated in the second half of the season and you got one of the most terrifying and feared cornerbacks with Jaylen Johnson out there not to mention a pretty solid secondary as it is what concerned me about the Bears is their front seven it's not terrible but definitely nothing to write home about and the pass rush for the Bears was one of the worst in the League last year so they're going to have a hard time getting pressure on the Titans quarterback will Lis for the Titans you know they're not a good football team they lost derck Henry will Lis didn't look great last year their wide receiving room is aging uh the Titans should struggle to put up points here I would be surprised um if they beat the Bears here but again with the Bears you're getting a lot of question marks with a new team and a new quarterback especially and obviously an inexperienced one at that so that's the only concern and caution I have with the Bears pick this week this could be a very good value play depending on what the Bears do this season I could also see the Bears just giv the talent and what I believe this defense to be to really you know be a 10- win team this season potentially and have a lot of favorable matchups down the road more than four and a half here you're not going to see the 49ers favored by less than four and a half off in this season and that's really what makes his pick not valuable the 49ers like I said they're going to be favored by 10 plus points more often than not likely this season if they stay healthy uh they're playing a really tough Jets team that had I think the best defense in the NFL last season and is looking to be just as menacing this year you get Aon Rogers at quarterback who hasn't played football since that week one injury last year but a lot of question marks with them is they got the Jets have a great maybe the best running back behind Christian mcaffry in Breeze Hall you got a great receiver in um Garrett Wilson and again a top defense in the league uh there's a chance that Jets win this game on the defense alone you never know what can to happen I don't think they're going to win this game to be clear but I think you avoid this pick because it's close enough against a really good team and again this is not the time to take the 49ers just flat out I completely against picking the 49ers this week I don't think too many people are considering it but again just because the 49ers are the best team and they should win does not make this a good pick it's almost I would argue the worst pick you can make this week the Saints here at home against the Panthers and I honestly probably should have put a perceiver caution on this one obviously because it's a divisional game but I haven't loved what I've seen on the Saints last year the defense was pretty solid but again that's an aging unit as well they spent a lot of first round picks on offensive linemen and none of them are really panned out so the running game despite Alan in the backfield has not been very lucrative there they have an incredible Talent wide receiver in Chris olve but the quarterback play with Derek Carson's coming to New Orleans just has not been there and this Saints team is incredibly volatile they struggle to put up points in many games last season and it's concerning to be playing a divisional opponent in the Panthers who are making steps up you know this is Bryce Young's second year at quarterback here I expect him to be better and flash a little more leather uh this year than he did last year they got Deontay Johnson at wide receiver uh to really help him and Boler this passing game the defense for the Panthers are no slouch either by the way um this is a unit that is slowly building up its credibility as well I don't think it's hard for me to see the Saints losing the way it would happen is if Bryce young you know plays better than what we've seen but that's what happens each year there are going to be teams that come out week one that surprise you and that uh play a little bit better than expected and I think that could be the Panthers at at least in this game against the divisional opponent uh so I would avoid the Saints here I just don't think it's a great spot for them against you know if the saints were minus four against a non- divisional opponent at home I would think there's some good value there because again I don't think the Saints are are all that great they're hovering right around that seaha line of below slightly below average but against the divisional opponent I would stay away I was intrigued to see the Lions only favored by three and a half against the Rams I have a tremendous amount of respect for this team and the fact that their offense is probably the most terrifying Union of football not solely because of the weapons that they have but because of the offensive schemes that are employed by the coordinator Ben Johnson it's just impossible to guard I'm on Ross Brown at wide receiver Sam loraa who is one of the most dynamic young tight ends in the game and then jir Gibbs out of the backfield as well it's pretty tough to stop all three of those and any given pass play with the schemes that are drawn up but what I just said about the Lions can very easily be said about the Rams as they have incredible dynamic duo with the Aging Cooper cup but the emerging second year sophomore and pukan Aura at wide receiver Kiren Williams Kiren Williams at running back had a standout year last year two which is also scary so these are two off two very high-powered offenses solid defenses again nothing to write home about the real edge here is the Lions offens a line which is the best unit in the league they should have no problem running the football and whenever they want this game it's not necessarily a knock to the Rams defense it's just more so a testament to how dominant this Line's offensive line has been the last couple of years really taking the ground from the Eagles offensive line but again I've been praising the line so much this pick and for them to be only favored by three and a half uh is reason to not pick them this week you have so much better picks and options the Lions will be favored by much more than three and a half many times this season like without even looking schedule probably within one of the next two weeks so I would stay away from them and then again really the same thing about the Dolphins they had a top five defensive unit last year and when Tua was healthy their offense was you know rivaled the Lions for how scary it was with Tyreek Hill and jayen wad which I actually think is the best wide receiver tandem in football but they're playing the Jags who have a lot of Talent on offense with Trevor Lawrence Travis etn and the plethora of weapons at tight end wide receiv receiver to put up points and hang with the dolphins potentially again this Dolphins team got a lot of respect for but I don't think the time to take them is against a uh potential playoff threat in the Jaguars where they're only getting three points three and a half points of favorability here you're going to see the dolphins pick up huge spreads later in the year when you look at the schedule and so again I don't think it's a time to take them right now but that is all for the video please let me know what you're thinking in the comment section I do my best to guide you through um my thoughts and answer any questions I maybe didn't answer in this video but I hope to see everyone again in week two and let's get off to a great start for Survivor