Fat Wars: LLY vs. HIMS

Introduction & Market Update salam alaikum everyone I hope you're are doing well today is Tuesday August 27th and Bitcoin is at 61,7 Tesla is back at 210 today we're going to go over a uh comparison between uh two companies that are in the fat burning business or um weight management uh business as of late uh so Comparison of Weight Management Companies we'll compare them and uh see which one is a stronger buy full disclosure I have money invested in both of them without further Ado let's get started this is not Financial advice be sure to do your own due diligence before making any investing decisions and leave a like if you enjoy these lives and benefit from them that's of course their aim inshah PIF Membership Benefits that happens uh so get more Hal Alpha by becoming aif member if you're not already on uh Friday inshallah we'll have another Elite uh member session so we'll go over some ways to protect your profits which I think will pay off dividends for those who attend inshallah so if you're not a member yet do become a member all right Housing Market Analysis so we got some housing pric housing prices data today um so uh prices were up uh around north of 5% uh Nationwide if you compare compare this with their levels in June 2023 obviously different markets had uh different results uh so New York saw the highest annual gain among the top 20 cities with prices increasing 9% in June followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with annual increases of 8.7 and 88.5% respectively Portland Oregon was the worst of the um housing markets in the United States at least at least um when we're talking about major cities only saw an annual increase of less than 1% now the question that was posed to me recently is what do I think is going to happen to housing prices and I do think that there's an argument to be made that a pullback is in the cards here if you look at the home price um inflation adjusted home price is inflation adjusted you can see that uh we've been on quite a run as of late and I think there's an argument to be made that this run is just unsustainable we saw a similar run in 2006 and we know how that ended uh with a dramatic drop um when you compare with the affordability uh so if you take the US uh home value divide by income and we look at that ratio uh we really haven't seen ratios as high as where we are right now um since 2006 and as I mentioned we saw what happened there uh we saw a big Plunge in housing prices uh after that Peak was reached uh and in the 1950s and what happened there was uh basically there was static in housing prices so they really didn't do of anything for the next 10 years so incomes uh Rose during that period but housing prices uh stayed basically stagnant and that's what brought this uh ratio down so I so I mean this could end in one of two or three ways so either housing prices uh come back down if we think that uh this uh this ratio is going to hold that is it's going to revert back to it's something closer to the average so either housing prices are going to come down or they'll stay stagnant for a a long period of time and um and uh incomes will rise and so this ratio will go down or there's just going to be a really big increase in inflation and U you know on an inflation adjusted basis um and and housing prices will remain um you know relatively stable and we'll see you know on an inflation adjusted basis uh that you know housing prices go back to something more normal uh so um yeah I mean based on this at least I I think there's an argument here that um you know one of these three scenarios is what's going to happen um you know based on this I probably wouldn't be a buyer here of if I'm looking uh if I'm considering buying a house and um especially considering I do think one of the reasons why housing prices have been as high as they have been is because a lot of people are locked into very low interest rate mortgages and they're not getting out of that uh situation in a highin environment so there's been inventory has been hard to come by for houses because no one is selling because they can't get a similar um similarly cheap mortgage when interest rates do go down uh we may see inventories increase because there's a lot of people who have been holding off on moving uh because they can't find uh appropriate financing cheap enough uh financing may decide that hey um now there are some options available for financing that are not too expensive so maybe uh these people are motivated to put their houses for sale that increases inventory and uh reduces prices so there are so many other factors that could impact the housing prices so it's very tough to actually uh forecast but you know food for thought at least all right now let's move to Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score & Market Outlook bitcoin uh so Bitcoin seems to be at an equilibrium if we look look at the mvrv z zcore um now this compares the market value to the realized value uh typically when we have reached equili equilibrium in a Bitcoin uh regime uh I'm sorry in a bullish regime uh this has been a positive sign because it has typically been followed by a uh upward Trend uh and it's typically signified sort of the um the end of uh the downward Trend so the a local minimum if you will so if you uh do think that we are in a generally bullish regime and I do think that is the case because of liquidity levels and they're being on schedule to increase globally uh then I think when you look at the mvvc score and you see that we're at equilibrium levels this is a good sign for you all right so now let's talk about Eli Lilly's Weight Loss Drug Strategy Eli Lily and uh they big headline out of Eli Lily today was that they were uh selling uh Zep bound vials at 50% discount to meet the weight loss drug demand uh so you can actually buy vials from their um direct consumer uh online um site Lily direct at either 3.99 or 5.49 a month uh depending on the dosage and um this is compared to if you wanted uh their um if you wanted OIC it costs like 2,000 a month so this is a big uh a decrease M make it a lot more affordable for more people increase the customer base for them uh so on the heels of that announcement l stock did get a bit of a bump in an environment where you know most other equities were falling and uh this I think is the right move uh for Lily specifically I mean there has been a shortage in the um for uh Novo Nordisk its main competitor uh there has been a shortage in um the um the compound uh for the drug um but in Lily's case they don't have a similar shortage actually their bottleneck was with the actual pens that are used to uh administer the drug and that's what was causing the manufacturing bottleneck for them so they decided okay let's just sell the vials and then the patient will have to actually uh load the um load the syringe uh themselves and uh administer it uh that way but we'll sell the vials at 50% uh discount and so I think that this is the right move I think it makes a lot of sense put it's puts Lily at an advantage HIMS Market Reaction & Analysis compared to uh competition now HS which is another investment that we have is still cheaper so if you can get the glp1 injections at $199 a month but it did take a beating in the market today I think last I look at looked at it let me check it right now actually uh so hims is down close to 7% in just today uh on this news um but hims is still cheaper in terms of their gop1 injections but cheaper buy less so people have more options uh that being said I think the market overreacted if we do a comparison between uh Lily and hims uh you can see the revenue growth year-over-year for Eli Lily now obviously Eli Lily is a much bigger company than him I mean you're talking about Eli Li is flirting with a trillion dollar valuation whereas hems is still sub five billion I think it's close to three billion right now uh so if you look at Revenue growth year-over-year for Eli Lily it was at 31% versus him at 50% forward Revenue growth expected at around 26% 53% for hims so hims has the advantage there again I understand it's a lower base but still percentages are what they are uh if you at the profitability if you look at gross profit margin for Lily and HS they're very similar so north of 80% which is fantastic yes the net income margin for Lily is higher you would expect that uh when compared to H because they have economies of scale H is still very much Comparison of Eli Lilly and HIMS in its growth phase Eli Lily is a much more mature company if you look at the uh EV uh to sales so Enterprise Value to sales on a forward-looking basis for Lily uh it's at 19 whereas for hims is it's at 2.35 even though um HS has a higher expected growth rate so yes I understand that the net income margin for Lily is higher but I think HS will get there uh as it gains more economies of scale as it grow grows its operations so comparing them I think hims has more upside than Lily does especially at these valuations and I think that HS is presenting a unique opportunity to investors with the volatility that it has because it is shorted at close to 10% of floats so uh when it when a stock is heavily shorted it tends to move up it tends to overshoot on the way up and it overshoots on the way down as well and um and today I think it's overshooting on the way down I don't think HS is necessarily a glp1 play I think in the near term it may be but what it has proven uh with offering glp1 and ramping that up uh to almost h100 million uh annualized uh revenue is what it's proving is that it can on board a new opportunity offer a new drug ramp it up quickly and it has the infrastructure and the vertical integration in it uh to do so effectively and so there are so many other opportunities that are going to come up to do something similar to what it did with gp1 that's the real play if you understand the him's business model it's not glp1 that's very narrow thinking the real play is the personalized convenient uh accessibility to drugs that him is providing at a very competitive uh price so comparing the two I like both companies uh as I mentioned I thought Eli Lily's move today was the right one it's making the Right Moves I think with Lily you'll have a more stable investment uh with less returns but hims you're going to have a more volatile uh investment but with uh greater return so that's my comparison of the two um I saw the uh recent survey Discussion on Wealth & Financial Security actually asking um Americans what they considered wealthy and this uh this number uh differed based on uh where they were located so in San Francisco for example they consider someone with at least 4.4 million to be wealthy San Diego Los Angeles um that was close to 3.4 million uh Dallas close to 2.2 million so it really differs however I realized that these numbers may seem intimidating to uh many um they're they're good to Aspire to if you have the right intentions with what you want to do with your wealth uh but I don't think necessarily that uh these are um you know having this amount of wealth is necessarily going to change your you know day-to-day enjoyment of your life the most important thing is to not have any debt uh pay off any uh debt that you have and live within your means and once you do that I think you've you solved the money problem and I go back to what the prophet peace be upon him said with regards to uh being wealthy in terms of at least material terms the prophet peace be upon Him says and the translation of that is whoever among you wakes up secure in his property healthy in his body and has his food for the day it is as if the whole the whole world has been given to him or gathered for him and so that's really I think the if you if you have these things you should consider yourself to be uh very wealthy from there's nothing more to have really um that being said I do think that Muslims should be strong and um and and strength is often you know you know wealth is a form of strength and so you know if you have the right intentions with why you want to you know accumulate wealth to be strong to do something good with it uh then that's all good but you should not not consider yourself wealthy um if you don't have you know the numbers that we mentioned all right so uh become a pif member if you haven't already uh leave a like if you haven't already uh let's go to Q&A Session & Final Thoughts questions Rashad says Salam let's not talk politics but Harris is planning to give firsttime buyers some cash would that nourish the housing market yeah I mean sorry to say this but everything Harris has proposed so far has been asinine it's just silly price controls are silly uh taxes on um unrealized gains are insane 25,000 for a first-time home buyers is just going to inflate the price uh for first time for for buyers um and so you know I don't think it's going to have the intended effect I think instead of you know giving firsttime home buyers um you know 25,000 how about just reducing their taxes and keeping their money with them instead of increasing taxes so instead of doing this uh inefficient uh proposal how about just keeping people's money with them and and and getting off their back I think that's a better uh solution J say Salam thanks for your video this makes sense for why you have each pick in their respective portfolio thanks I appreciate that zare uh says Salam really appreciate these updates even if I'm not able to make the live sessions well I'm glad you made it today always good to see you uh my good friend is f says for all that you do for our community what a great oh thanks so much I really appreciate that um that brightens my day whenever I um read comments like that uh Rashid says Alum is it a good time to grab some shares of H yeah I think it is um and perhaps I will and I'll let pif members know that I did if I do if you'd like to follow my trades move for moved and do become a pi member leave a like as I mentioned and until next time make sure to take care of yourself assalam alikum and peace be upon you all