Best Bets for Thursday Night Football | NFL Week 2 Bills vs. Dolphins Picks + Predictions (9/12)

[Music] what's up guys how are you welcome into a Thursday morning episode of The Daily juice podcast my name is Matt peralt you guys can follow me across all socials at Sports Talk matat following another one inone night this is a little bit of a trend here but back toback nights back back to back one in ones we get the underwrite for the aces we do not get the underwrite for the storm when 0 and2 on Sparks games and back-to-back games took the Sparks plus the points night before that lost took the under lost kind of a bummer there with the storm and the Sparks but we get ourselves the Aces and the fever to go under so we l are down 0.1 so Monday Tuesday Wednesday just a little bit of an under kind of trend here were down a little bit little paper cut paper cut paper cut as we head towards Thursday welcome back football so I've got four plays for us here today on a Thursday night football I have one uh straight bet I've got one uh teaser and I have two player props for us to jump in with here that I like a lot that I'm going to bet half a unit on here so we'll have a little over three units in play like we normally do on a Thursday but before I tell you about the picks and the plays this podcast is being presented by draft Kings download the new DraftKings pick six app now use the code juice that's juice for new pick six customers you play $5 to get $50 in pick six credits guaranteed plus one month of NFL plus with Red Zone and NFL Network only on DraftKings Pi six the crown is yours gambling problem call 800 Gambler help is available for problem gambling call 8887895118 ccpg dorg in Connecticut must be 18 plus age and elig eligibility restrictions may vary by jurisdictions pick six not available everywhere including New York and Ontario void where prohibited see terms at P six. draftkings.com promos one per new customer reward issued as $50 in non-withdrawable pick six credits that expire in 6 months NFL Plus premium offer available only to new and former NFL plus subscribers additional NFL Plus premium terms at nfl.com terms okay let's get into this big divisional game between the Dolphins and the bills all right we saw a really really bad week one for running the football sorry for passing the football we saw a really good week one for running the football I don't know if that trend is going to continue but we do know that two attack of aloa can really throw the football and he he has Tyreek Hill who hopefully won't get arrested or detained on his way to the the game here tonight at Hard Rock stadium Dolphins one game week W their first game last week on Sunday 2017 didn't cover the three and a half Point number this is now two and a half up against Buffalo now if you look back in week one last week last year Tua lost 2114 at home to the Buffalo Bills didn't cover in that game either they were short home dogs here in or home favorites rather Buffalo's favorite actually Buffalo's two and a half they were home dogs Buffalo won by 21 in that game Tua was 17 of 21 for 173 yards that will not get it done here tonight if that's how they're going to play this team needs their offense to click but the defense needs to BR needs to bring their hard hat as well they played well against the Dolph against the Jaguars in the second half in the first half it wasn't great two a threw for three 338 yards last week 23 of 37 had the 880 yard touchdown toss to Tyreek Hill but he was equally effective throwing the football and sprinting it around getting off to a one and0 start here big win didn't cover the bills same thing for buffalo buffalo didn't cover they won by six they did not cover the six and a half they were very close to covering but they didn't cover much like Tua and the Dolphins close to covering but they didn't cover dolphins are at home okay I I 10 to on short weeks teams that played at home the previous week on that Sunday they didn't travel having to stay at home and take on the Buffalo Bills who traveled down to South Florida it's going to feel like 105 degrees all right it's at night so the sun won't be the problem but the humidity will be and playing football in Miami when you're not used to it and you're playing from Buffalo New York I think the bills could have a tough time in the fourth quarter short week hot Place Miami is used to it this is dolphins home Dolphins two and a half I'm going to lay the two and a half here with the dolphins okay I think the Dolphins win the game by three or four points I don't think it's going to be it could very well be like last week last second field goal to win the game it could come down to that so since it's two and a half it's less than a field goal I feel good jumping in here now it may go up to three but it may come down too could see some bills money coming in here with Josh Allen Josh Allen has played but I just think Tua in this offense will do enough not a ton but they'll do enough here to get the win I'm going to lay the two and a half points with the Miami Dolphins at home up against the Buffalo Bills and frankly under Mike McDonald sorry McDaniel they've been pretty good I mean the the Dolphins have been pretty good at home up against divisional teams and if you kind of go back and look at what happened last year for Tua in games at home against against divisional opponents he played pretty well he didn't play against well against the build like I mentioned but when they played at home against the Jets they won the game 30 to nothing two a through for 224 yards up against uh the Patriots he went 30 for 45 for 324 yards and a 3117 Victory uh at home against the G uh there was the bills and the Jets and the Patriots so those are your three home games two and one two have played well in both wins I think it'll play well here tonight I think the bills are going to have a tough time on a short week after a hard fought game against the Cardinals I'll lay the two and a half points I'll take the Miami Dolphins minus two and a half for 1.1 units however Thursday night short week I don't think we're going to see a ton of offense we could but I think the defense will be again ahead don't think the passing games will be really there we could run the football but I'm not loving in love with the passing game I'm gonna same game tee this I'm going to take the bills up to Plus 8 a half I'm going to go from 49 up to 55 and I'm taking the under I just under I I just don't think we're going to see 55 points here in a divisional game and other than yes the Patriot game wound up with a 48 317 30 to nothing 2114 at 55 points last year the three divisional games at home for Miami all went under 55 points I just think you look at last week at home against Jacksonville that game goes way under if we're talking about 55 points and the bills I I I know Buffalo can score I know they're capable of scoring a lot of points 3428 the final but that was at home and they had to come from behind to win the game they let the Cardinals get after it and really move the football I think it's significant to look at the the bills and the Dolphins and go it's divisional game I just don't think we're seeing a high-scoring game in week number two now the injuries do affect here I'm not going not going to lie here that backing the dolphins with the injuries that are going to be in this game you know achain is out for the Dolphins we've got Elijah Campbell who's questionable for the Dolphins Mahem moer is out for the Dolphins other side you've got a couple of out Tyron Johnson is out uh Javon Solomon is questionable for the Buffalo Bills again short week hot Stadium aain being out stinks but I think the I think the Dolphins will be okay here and going ahead and leaning on their depth at running back cuz they do have weapons to roll through you know moster out achain is most likely out it's going to be a lot of Jeff Wilson here who's been decent at times Jaylen Wright who's been decent at times I I I think the Dolphins will throw the ball a little bit more but I also think that they're going to have a tough time throwing the football so I I don't think we're going to see a ton of big yardage here in this game I just think the Dolphins defense can do a lot if achain can't go that's going to be huge but he you know moser's out we'll see what a chain looks like if he can play that that's huge I think they'll run the football a ton hopefully he's getting ready to go here with with this the number opened up at one it's been bet to two and a half so I think that tells me that a chain is going to play in this game Dolphins minus two and a half bills plus 8 and a half Tas to eight and a half 55 we're going with the under now we saw 188 a half yards per team passed in week one of the NFL that's the lowest passing yardage in this Century for teams in the NFL I'm not saying that Dolphins can't explode and go off for a ton of yards but in a divisional game I'm not sure they're going to Tua threw for 338 yards in that game come from behind game against the Jacksonville Jaguars Jaguars secondary is awful the bills have a decent defense the Bills should be able to at least contain Tua I think Tua in terms of a yarded situation I think Tua is going to have a 225 type of game I don't think he'll have 177 but I think if aan can play they'll run the football and I think Tua is going to go under his passing number and I think it's because of the fact that he's not have that big play Tyreek Hill like he had I think tu's passing number is going to be too high and I'll ride this trend of really a lot of unders coming in with passing yardage for quarterbacks I don't think he throws for a ton of yards I think this is going to be an it's 265 and a half I'm going to go under here here I I or 269 and a half I'm going to go under with this for Tua 268 and a half is what I played 268 A2 for Tua under and then I think James Cook is gonna have a nice night James Cook caught three balls for 32 yards against Arizona think against an aggressive Dolphins front I think James Cook can catch swing passes and can catch screens and I think James Cook picks up pretty easily over 18 and half yards receiving three catches for him average 10.7 yards per catch in the game against Arizona I think he has a similar type of game here for James Cook I I I think he's going to have an opportunity to maybe break off a couple of them I'm going to go over 18 half receiving yards for James Cook of the Buffalo Bills here for 0.55 units that's to win a half a unit okay so nothing too crazy on this game here for tonight nothing too wild but four plays going on Thursday night football again we're coming in I'm taking the Dolphins minus oh sorry the Dolphins minus 2 and a half for 1.1 units teasing the bills up to8 and a half and taking the under 55 and minus 120 James Cook over 18 and a half receiving yards for 0.55 units and Tua under 268 you might get 269 I bet under 268 and a half I just saw a book that's at 269 so you might get a better number than me but 268 and a half at- 110 at 0.55 so we're coming in little over you know 3.4 four units and play here on Thursday Night Football for us on this Thursday my name is Matt peral remember coming up we'll have a live stream with more player props 30 minutes prior to kickoff join me on this very betting Pros YouTube channel we'll get at you for the last 30 minutes we'll talk about the game we'll break down the game a chain in or out how does that affect things I'll have two more player props maybe more I don't know we'll see how many player props I like I may have more than two to give you but I generally play quarter unit on player props I've got two half unit plays coming in so I may come in with another four player props for a quarter unit depending on what I like and what I see I but I'm giving you the teaser now I'm giving you the number now because I think the number could be moving around to see if you get three that's great but to me this is same game type of long teaser situation for taking the bills up to eight and a half and taking the total down to under 55 7 well we'll come at you at uh 4:30 Pacific 7:30 eastern time on the betting Pros YouTube channel with myself for 30 minutes taking you up to kickoff top of the hour for Thursday Night Football between the bills and the Dolphins I will talk to you later on today on the betting Pros YouTube channel my name is Matt peralt follow me across all socials at Sports Talk matat the deal juice podcast every morning presented by DraftKings [Music] oh [Music]