Heat wave for early September for Socal - NWS San Diego

hey everyone Alex tardy here here to talk about the heat wave coming up let's look at the heat risk uh and how that evolves or increases as we go into this heat wave here's a summary so we've had a hot summer especially Inland areas record hot for the mountains and deserts we've also had a monsoon that's been below average what we're going to talk about this week is excessive heat warning that's in effect that's because moderate to areas of major heat risk possible impacts all the way to the coast where there's a heated advisor in effect now as far as record warm we've seen warmer so back in 2020 and 2022 we also have some concern with elevated fire weather conditions due to the heat though we do see a monsoon return potentially for the weekend okay quick recap June July was much warmer than average and that was for the Inland areas as shown here the coast was actually close to normal just slightly above normal now if we look at the month of August which now we're in September August numbers are in Inland areas were much above average but not record overall uh the monsoon over the Southwest was much below average as shown here now we did have a little bit of rain along the coast um but that's doesn't take much this time of the year the area we focus is the deserts and the mountains and they were much below normal now for the month of August temperatures we did see continued warm conditions warmer than they should be in the southwest you can see that in the San Diego mountains and deserts and the Coachella Valley temperatures were several degrees above average we can also see there was a little bit of a monsoon and it was just focused on the San Diego mountains this shown here came out right around normal now for July August combined uh because July was so hot we can see the dark red shaded record warmth for Inland areas of Southern California record warmth in the dark red areas those are the mountains and deserts of Southern California and just a little bit above average for coastal areas so also when you look at temperatures for July and August combined uh several degrees above normal that's an anomaly as shown here on the left- hand side and then when you look at precipitation for July and August the monsoon you can see this a little bit of an anomaly over the San Diego mountains but it still came out below average okay what do we got in store this week and the reason why we showed those Maps before is that overall the coast and part of the Inland valleys have been spared uh by the summer heat it's been slightly above normal the areas that have not been spared are the mountains and deserts and all areas are in the excessive heat warning the highest level of warning except for our Coastal area so we do expect impacts on our Coast where you see that heat advisory so in other words we're seeing some of the warmest temperatures of the year for the coast and valleys take a look at some of the records though in order to beat the records we have to beat the big heat wave of 2020 20 2020 early September saw incredible hot temperatures uh all o almosta to the coast 115 at Escondido so we're not expecting those type of numbers and therefore records may be limited uh overall with this upcoming Heat Wave heat risk this is what's causing us to issue a heat warning and an advisory for the coast so it's going to expand and increase rapidly Wednesday to Thursday Thursday you see widespread red which is widespread major heat risk so this means temperatures day and night are much above normal compared to the 30-year average when we get into Friday and Saturday we see no relief on Friday that could be our hottest day and then we start seeing relief especially on the coast and some of the Inland desert areas on Saturday so two things go on Marine layer tries to rebuild by Saturday so that's why we see some cooling along the coast and then over the deserts we see potential for some monsoonal moisture which will shave the daytime temperatures here's some raw numbers for Wednesday through Saturday we're talking temperatures in the Inland Empire 105 to 110 uh temperatures well in the 90s on Wednesday for Inland valleys now when we get into Thursday this will really be felt across Inland valleys with hot temperatures even above average temperatures and we're talking temperatures hotter than we've seen so far this entire summer for places like Escondido Ramona and potentially Anaheim and just the Inland areas on Friday that could be our Peak that could be our hottest day and don't forget nighttime temperatures will be getting warmer during this period we do see a little bit of relief on Saturday for coastal areas and we shave off some temperatures in the deserts due to Monsoon moisture coming up from the South but still hot for the weekend this is what it looks like for the monsoon threat starting this weekend it'll be mainly for the high elevations of the mountains like Big Bear Down to the San Diego mountains the weather pattern that's causing this so it's like all of our weather patterns that cause Heat heat waves an upper Ridge in the atmosphere 10 20,000 ft big dome of warm air sitting right over Us by Thursday pressing down on us bringing those excessively warm temperatures it starts to weaken on Friday and shift to the East and then by Saturday it's over the four corners area and that allows the door to open for some Monsuno moisture next week some good news we have a general weather pattern that suppresses the extreme heat so while temperatures still will be normal to slightly above early next week we see a cooling and drying pattern Monsoon moisture getting pushed to the East and cooling meaning this upper level trough along the west coast will allow the Marine layer to build and that just basically brings you more cooler temperatures or at least back to normal here's some resources take a look at these okay these resources are available to anyone uh with internet connection and I recommend you checking out some of the links shown here stay cool everyone drink lots of water and take frequent breaks during the Heatwave