How Terrified Should I Be to Draft Jordan Addison? | 2024 Fantasy Football

now don't get me wrong I love I love Jordan Addison I I think he's a very talented player I think he's going to give us a lot of good seasons in the NFL I think he's going to give us wide receiver two seasons like we've seen from players like Devonte Smith I think they're going to be coming for him and he was very impressive as a rookie put up over a 9% um touchdown right I just don't see it happening this year and a guy you're gonna be taking round eight around nine in your drafts I think he's someone I'm just probably passing on altogether Minnesota was number one in the NFL and uh passing touchdown percentage last year at 81% nearly 20% over League average um if you want to compare that 9% touchdown right the Addison put to somebody who's maybe the similar size Tower lock is one of the best guys we've seen scoring touchdowns at that size and he's 6.8% on his career and that's over two two and a half percent above League average um you know Mike Evans completely different archetype sits at 7% so it's tough for me to project Jordan Addison to get even close as that Mark especially when you look at what quarterback is going to playing with this upcoming season with Kurt Cousins he had a 5.6% touchdown rate on 68% completions fantastic that you you'll have to see that for your pass catchers we're moving to potentially Sam darnold whose career touchdown rate is three and a half% 60% complety percentage and if it's not Sam darnold or if it is and then they pivot we're gonna be talking about a rookie and J Jay McCarthy's a little bit more raw than maybe uh you know we we were thinking coming coming into the season or where a lot of managers are thinking for JJ McCarthy rookie rookie quarterbacks in terms of expecting you know high production from the second or potentially third target on a team it's really hard for me to get behind here the 177% target share that Jordan Addison had in 2023 I'll be it respectable 49% of the targets came in week six to 12 without Justin Jefferson TJ hkin is going to come back at some point from injury we do believe it's a really thin target tree here I expect Aaron Jones to get involved a little bit in the passing game as well I just don't want to play this game with a rookie quarterback I think oftentimes the mistake that we make is chasing the wi receiver two on what ends up being an average or less than average offense if I am chasing the wide receiver two on a team it's got to be one that I think realistically could be a top 10 offense all right because you know if it's not the Eagles or if it's not Miami or if it's not San Francisco I I find it hard to put an a second wide receiver in I think a a prime example you can look back as just last year where Washington we were projecting to be a bottom third offense yet we allowed ourselves to get really excited about Jan doson a player who performs kind of comparable to Jordan Addison as a rookie listen I think good things are coming for Jordan Addison I just don't want it this year uh Tim I know you're a big Jordan Addison fan um is he a player that you you feel comfortable taking e ninth round of drafts this year or are you kind of getting behind my stance here it's a really tough position because when you have Justin Jefferson everything becomes easier for other players even rookie QBs and I'm not a JJ McCarthy guy but I can re recognize when you have weapons like that there is there is an Avenue Avenue to succeed because either you're finding Jefferson and he's making plays for you or you're finding the guy who has the weaker coverage but that doesn't mean it's going to happen week to week and that's the real tripping point for me when it comes to Addison I have so much Addison in Dynasty but I'm with you I'm most likely not going to touch him in redraft because of the fact that where he's going um there's other players either I'm taking just ahead of him like a Godwin that I feel way more comfortable about comfortable about week to week where Addison might be a nice guy if I could get him two rounds later than what he's currently going at stash him on the bench maybe there's another Jefferson injury and we're hoping hope to God there isn't or that offense really does take off and then you can reap the benefits later in the season when it's proven concept that hey this can happen but yeah to me no there's a lot more consistency I can find around that that part of the draft that I'm targeting different players just because I I can the more that I can make my lineup predictable in a redraft league the easier it is for them for me to take risks when it comes to waiver wire players or end of bench players because I know I don't have to try to play lineup roulette every week and try to fill that last Flex yeah if you were to fall past round 10 I think maybe we'd have a different conversation here in three wide receiver leagues or multiple Flex spots if he were to fall round 10 or or or or or later I'm a little bit more interested just because there is a little bit of that contingency value and he could end up being a wide receiver four wide receiver five otherwise and everyone has to start at that point at least four wide receivers um but I don't see the point here in a lot of leagues that are two wide receiver in one Flex spot where you can play him I'm gonna find him hard to squeeze in your lineups I think even if Justin Jefferson goes down you said Justin Jefferson makes things a lot easier especially on a rookie quarterback now we got a rookie quarterback with Jordan Addison and a whole lot of nothing right and a 30 plus yard running back and Jordan Addison and a rookie quarterback this offense could be bad and yes I think the floor could be next to nothing and in a lot of leagues when you have two wide receivers in one Flex spot you just can't afford to have a dud in your lineup that you're gonna have losing weeks if you do so so he's not someone I'm sure I'll even be comfortable with you know at that point in shower leaks two things about that as well if it's only a start two wide receiver you should be hammering wide receiver early hammering it go get those studs because then you have no questions about how good your lineup is every week and can we please please give Kirk Cousins his due because he's so much better of a quarterback than anybody gives him credit babe you don't have to convince me love the love for Kirk Cousins now Jake uh we're gonna move into a little bit of positive regression here um let's start with you let's let's let's dive into someone that you think is gonna progress in a positive way in in 2023 yeah so