ELECTION PREDICTION based on Poly market Percentages / First Prediction since the Debate

with the first presidential debate now over between Donald Trump and K La Harris I made a whole video talking about the highlights the important stuff and who I thought won what and who won the errow parts long story short I said I basically said Don I think Donald Trump won when it came to the questions Tom La Harris oh he won he won with the questions and he won with his he won in the sense of not being you know rude or whatever unnecessarily KLA Harris want in her sharpness and her mannerisms and her um animation if you will she won in that so overall whoever you think won overall I'll leave that up to you but that's what I personally thought this going to be my first map update after that debate and I'm not going to be basing it off the newest polls or the polling averages we just don't have anything really new we got like one new poll from like Wisconsin and New Hampshire that's about it so not much it was so far there just not much change that we can really talk about the long story short looks like K Harris has this has given her a bit of a boost if you look here into right here on September 10th Donald Trump had closed the distance down to just 1.1% below K Harris but since then over the last few days she has she has jumped up significantly up to 1.7 again so we have to see what Don Trum can do to try and turn this around he's going to have to try and do something to try and turn this around because he does not otherwise he may very well lose his election so what we're going to be basing this off of is not again not the not the polling averages or the newest poll but they're going be basically off of ply markets percentage for who's going to win at that's what we going be basing this off of I think they are a very reliable place to go so let's just go straight with California so right here in California we can see according we can see here according to paully Market we can see right here that that the Democrats have a 94% chance of winning in in the state the Republicans only have a 2% chance of winning so clearly the state is very solidly blue it's just not going to nothing's going to happen that 2% chance is just hard to believe even that 2% chance while we're at we're going to quickly fill in all the safe states that we know what's going to happen with them all right guys so with that we have now filled in all of the solid States let's move on right over to the next state which is the state of Oregon and Oregon and this is kind of surprising because we saw on the in the RCP averaging and all that it was a lot it seems a lot closer but we can see here the Democrats have a substantial lead just 1% below California so at least according to the PO Market the state will be a solidly blue State and that's surprising you know we look down over here if we go to the state of Oregon over here it's a lot closer you know right here see the only P we only have one pull which is 5% so it's it's really hard to say that that it really is that much but according to PO Market it is so that's what's going to be according to PO Market let's go to Washington now Washington we have once again the same thing it's going to be a solidly blue State according to the according to poly market so we'll be a Waring the state as solidly blue for KLA Harris there's only a 2% chance Donald Trump can win this state and that's really just just not that's just not going to happen that 2% chance is just really not going to happen let's go to our first Battleground State that's state of Nevada okay here this is this is interesting we can see here it's 5050 exactly we really just we according to the PO Market we just don't have anybody anything to give for this state it's it just really is that close so for this case what the only thing I can really think to do is just to go over here and let see and see what our RCP average says okay we can see here we now we haven't gotten a poll since um the since the end of August so just go what we have here it's going to be lean Democratic so let's go to Arizona now we can we can see here Arizona I already mentioned this we saw that Donald Trump was really starting to run away with the state he was gaining substantially in that state recently and despite the debate looks like it hasn't HT him in fact the very first place that Donald Trump went after his debate went to was to Arizona my go my goal is that Don my my guess is that Donald Trump's goal with this is that he wants to he probably knows he's really starting look good in Arizona so he wants to make sure that his performance in the debate did not hurt his um standing in Arizona so he went straight to Arizona to make sure that state stays as red as it has gone so far and does not drop back to being as competitive as it was and after that he will then move on to the other swing state to try and get them try and get him trying to give himself a little bit of a boost back right in those days he is he took a he took a small hit but he he's going to try and get that boost that he needs to get back on get back to that un track or whatever so State pretty so pretty good for Donald Trump we will be giving the state as likely to Donald Trump so the state he is still looking pretty good in the state of Arizona better than he was before and let's go to Colorado and Mexico and again according and according to poly Market state of Colorado will not be likely but solidly blue that seems a little hard to believe let's just take a look at New Mexico while we're at it that see that seems a little hard to believe but I know I'm going to go off of it New Mexico will be a little more will be a little closer so since the Dem the Republicans do have a 10% chance of winning this one I will put it as that is a decent Siz chance of winning it so this one will be solid and this one will be likely all right let's um we're just going to fill in the state of uh n Braska as we know it will go don will easily win all of this except the second district or sorry the second district will be lean blue he could win it but he probably won't it will be slightly towards KLA Harris Let's go to Texas and okay as you can see here in Texas it really you it it's really just as You' expect it to be the Republicans have a massive lead it's going to clearly be almost it's almost solid it's actually almost solid lead for them but as you can see here it will be just barely not Sol it will be still likely but close to solid let's go to Illinois yeah Illinois out of it's it's really it's the only state in all like the Midwest region that it's extremely blue you know there's really no reason for Don to really even try in that state you know he he was able to flip every other state from the Midwest except for that one and really it's just not going to change anytime soon Illinois is just a very blue State it's the state of Abraham Lincoln although Abraham Lincoln was a republican but a lot of values that he stood for the modern Democrats not not back then but the modern Democrats stand stand for so it's uh it's all that symbolism of Abraham Lincoln standing for a lot of things that that the modern Democrats stand for is you know it's a whole thing so that's why the state will be solidly blue let's go to Minnesota all right this is interesting according to poly Market this state which is by the way considered a Battleground state says the Democrats have an a 93% chance of winning this state that seems hard to believe Donald Trump came extremely close to winning it in 2016 and it was not very close in 2020 but in 2016 was very close and he he was leading the polling averages by he was leading the polling averages at one point so this is hard to believe but just to stay neutral and go what we have this state will be solidly blue let's go to Wisconsin all right right here we can see Wisconsin the state of Wisconsin will be much closer Donald Trump does have a 41% chance of winning in this state according to paully Market and his percentage lead and this is the state out of three blue wall States Donal Trump is falling behind that's surprising you know you would think that Wisconsin would be the state that he would be gaining it but no he's actually he's falling behind in this state which is again that's a shock because Wisconsin was the one he was closest to winning last time now it's now he's falling behind in this state so the state will still be lean it's not it's not quite high enough for me to put it as likely but the state will be lean Democratic oh sorry lean sorry there we go lean it's it's but you know it's it's pretty much in that likely region though it's getting there let's go to Michigan exact same thing with Michigan we can see it's extremely close with Michigan and it's um about the same but now here's the thing I did see on you know I going to show it to you guys I'll put this in probably my next video I'll point this out but I'm going to show it to you guys right now right here look at this we did we did have one new poll I said it was from Michigan we did get one new poll from Michigan from the 12th don't has Trump up by 1% which is big and it has Brock Harris's lead down to just 0.7 and I saw an article that said Donald Trump's closing statement in his presidential election or sorry in the uh debate it was a lot was actually felt a whole lot more than K Harris is and I agree with that I think Donald Trump's closing statement about you know why hasn't she done it she won't do it she she hasn't done yet so she won't do it he said that he said a few other things I don't remember what they were but that whole statement and also the fact to people that don't really know KL Harris but they do know Trump in the state of Michigan specifically among undecided voters it did help Donald Trump a lot it was actually I saw a whole article on that that his closing statement actually resonated very well in Michigan so that could explain what why why we're seeing this why Trump suddenly is up by 1% in the newest poll and has brought Harris's lead down overall in the in the state's average down to just 0.7 so Trump wishing kind of reversal Wisconsin's becoming more and more likely to go to KLA Harris but Michigan is actually losing its liberal stance and kind of trending towards Donald Trump still turning towards her overall but it's losing that it's slowly moving towards Trump so we have to see what happens but the state will be nevertheless as of right now lean Democratic at least for right now let's go to Pennsylvania all right here we go this is big Donald Trump has Donald Trump has been fighting his his part my language he's been fighting his ass off to hold on to this state he needs Pennsylvania Comm they both both the candidates they need this state so badly it must go one way or the other for both candidates for either candidate to win whoever wins it will win this election I'm telling you that right now whoever wins Pensylvania there's just no other way that any candidate can win this election without winning Pennsylvania or unless you're unless you're Donald Trump you can still wi the election if you win Wisconsin and Michigan or one of them but Pennsylvania is the one he's really banking on because it's one he's has it's the one he has the best chance of winning so and we can see now despite the election or despite he saying he's saying that despite the debate he remains ahead by a 1% lead so the state will be lean Republican so that that right there it just shows you how how insanely close that this state is and Don but Donald Trump it just shows you how hard Trump is fighting to hold on to this state to keep the people's opinion for him in this state and he really was playing that in the debate you saw he was talking about fracking how K said she was going to stop Fring in Pennsylvania now she's kind of reversing that and Donald Trump said well she's only reversing she's going to My Philosophy she's copying me so Donald Trump absolutely played it very smart I would say he absolutely won the argument about fracking in Pennsylvania and his policy changes and in comment his policy changes about fracking in Pennsylvania and Don play that part of the debate Don absolutely won CU he played it very well he made it clear that wants P he he played he played in such a way that he favored Pennsylvania and that's what really I think helped that that part of the debate helped him out in Pennsylvania so he has held on to his lead in Pennsylvania while suffering in a few other places but it was if he wins Pennsylvania it will be worth it for him let's go to Ohio yeah okay so you see here in Ohio it's going to be a solidly blue state or sorry sorry solid red State and if you add on the fact that so D is clearly ahead by a massive margin if you add on the fact that JD Vance is from Ohio it's just's no doubt it's going be it's basically 100% that Ohio goes solidly red so not just red but solidly red so there you go so let's go to this we have we have three major Battleground States right here Virginia North Carolina and Georgia let's go to Virgin we see here in Virginia the Democrats do hold a strong lead but it's close or sorry it's not close but but the chance is there for Republicans to win this state back and and there is an attempt it's in the polling averages it's close we did we did get a new pull from Virginia that has hair up by like 8% which is hard to believe it's that much but it's not out of the r of possibility so it's there if Donald Trump can really just push his people to get out there vote vote vote and like crazy and can and the people that like K hairs are like yeah lot more laidback see that's why the intensity I mentioned the intensity a few videos back about voters Donald Trump's voters have a much greater intensity than KLA Harris do that's why you see Trump flags and signs everywhere and you're like oh my God Trump's everywhere he must be like crazy not necessarily he's not winning he's not winning like crazy but his the people that support him have a much greater intensity they're all they're like all over him like yes go Trump go Trump or comary supporters I mean you have you have the extreme liberals who are all who are all about her but other than that you just have the usual people are just kind of like yeah I'm going to vote for her I like a policiy that's about it so with that mindset though it can really help boost the Republicans to vote a lot more than the Democrats would for Comm Harris you know they might vote they might not but the Republicans they're going to vote so that's why and she's and not saying com is not urging her voters to vote they she obviously is but the Donald Trump is favoring in that in the intensity field he's getting his viewers or his followers or his um voters hyped up ready to go go go go vote that's why if he can really control and get the um voter turnout on Election night in his favor he can turn this around absolutely so Virginia that's why Virginia despite seemingly being very Democratic is still a Battleground state but will nevertheless be likely Democratic we saw the state dropped from likely down to lean recently but it's gone now back up to likely so that's just how it is let's go to North Carolina North Carolina it's close it's going to be a lean state but nevertheless Donald Trump is clearly still the favor to win Democrats only have a 43% chance of winning the state it's obviously it's not not without the not without the not sorry it's within the realm of possibility just probably not going to happen Donald Trump is is definitely the favorite to win in this state he has won it both elections 2016 and 2020 both times he was he was expected to lose the state and both times he won it so clearly the state will be lean but nevertheless we'll go to Donald Trump let's go to Georgia very important state okay here in Georgia the state will be lean but Republicans we saw Donald Trump he lost the state recently but now he's starting to pull it back he's starting he's starting to pull ahead in the state just like he is in Arizona so so in Arizona and Georgia he's pulling ahead and we can see here the state will be J barely but for right now it will still be a lead state but it's getting close to likely a to this if you just a few more percentage points then it will be a likely Republican state but for right now it's still a lean state so Georgia will go to Donald Trump by a lean margin but almost a likely margin but for now it's going to remain lean we we already know what Floyd is let's go to Florida anyway just for the heck of it let's see what it's going to look like yeah you can see here no it's just not going to happen now technically this still makes it a likely State not a not not a solid state but it might well be solid there's just no way it's going to happen we we you know we already knew that so we'll put the state down it's like and we already know what most of the Northeast is going to look like and plus Donal Trump already W already wins the elction with 280 electoral votes at this point but for the heck of it let's just let's take a look at the other states up here we look at New York let's just deal with New York now here now see in polling the percent and polling percentages recently we've seen how Donald Trump has been doing better than expected in the state of in the state like New York now here it still says it's still clearly a solid fit according according to this but we saw in the yards DP averaging it's not anywhere near what col haris would probably want it to be it's definitely still very much so going to win but you know it could turn but you know it's not as much as she wanted to be nevertheless we see your New York going to be a solid state but it's getting more competitive it's about to become a likely state so next election you know in 20 sorry 2028 it will probably be a likely State all right um let's just we okay we're just going to fill the rest we know it's going to look like so we're going to feel in these two states will both be likely this will be solid apology people we had a few bugs but I took care of them uh long PL my he scene New York will be solid so I explained it basically it's just going it probably it's by 2028 it'll probably be a lot more competitive we're fill in the state of Maine it will probably go to Colin Harris overall by a by a slim margin Donald Trump will win the second district easily and she will win the first district easily depending on the V turnout it could go the state as a whole could go either way and with that we have to fill in oh I forgot to fill in Rhode Island anyways and then why is this there you go okay now we can fill in the state of New Hampshire so let's just go to New Hampshire I'm just going to show it to you guys because we did get a new poll from that state and it is getting a lot more competitive but the Democrats were maintain a 86% chance of winning overall so the state will be likely Democratic which is the same thing that we did see in the other one but we did get a new pull from this St so I wanted to point that out to you with that this is your election this is the very this is our election prediction based off all the poll Market percentages and it's our first and this is my first update first real this is the most realistic update for the map following the presidential debate at this point this is what you can expect to see following the presidential debate Wisconsin is becoming more and more for KLA Harris it's she's pulling away with that state Nevada is slightly Democratic too close to call Arizona Donal is really really running away with the state this state is becoming less and less of a Battleground State D is really just pulling ahead in that state Georgia same thing still still a lean state but Donald Trump or sorry K or yeah Donald Trump is really starting to pull away with Georgia as well it's slightly it went K temporarily but now he's pulling away with it North Carolina is very close it probably will go to Donald Trump though same in Pennsylvania it's very close but it probably will go to Donald Trump Michigan is still lean Democratic but it's shockingly becoming more competitive wison I thought I thought it was going to be Wisconsin hon is really pulling away towards conell Harris but Michigan Donald Trump's closing statement seems to have really helped him in Michigan because it's it's it's dropped down almost a full percentage from it was 1 Point like 1.7 now it's only like now it's only 0.7 in the state so it's really if Don TR can keep it up he might be actually be able to win the state of Michigan everything else is what you would expect for the most part some things might change some things might not but with this with the with the way with the way things are as we see right now Donald Trump will win this election with 281 electoral votes that's going to be all for today guys hope you guys liked it leave a comment leave a like make sure you subscribe hit the Bell notification it on the channel you can undo it anytime you want it's free totally free doesn't doesn't cost you a thing just hit the button and if you want keep see these coming just do that so that's going to be all I'll see you guys next time bye