Deterring an Axis of Aggressors: A Conversation with H.R. McMaster

[Music] good morning and welcome to Hudson Institute here in Washington DC I'm Jeremy Hunt a media fellow here at Hudson Institute and we're a research organization dedicated to promoting American leadership for a secure free and prosperous future and today we'll be discussing um a new AIS of aggressor including Russia China Iran and North Korea um who are joining together in opposition to the United States and our interest and I'm I'm so honored to have with us today Lieutenant General retired HR McMaster who is also former National Security advisor um here with us and he's also the Japan chair here hat Institute uh so gentleman Master it's such an honor thanks for being with us hey Jeremy hey great to be with you I'm actually now I was Japan chair I'm adviser to the Japan CH chair now and uh and Ken wste has uh has taken over and obviously is doing a fantastic job yes well awesome thank you so much and I um I wanted to start by talking about just kind of tracing if you could just kind of how this Alliance kind of began uh between Russia China Iran and North Korea how did this all beg kind of how do we get here into this place and how did it how did it all come together well Jeremy it began with a very close relationship between Vladimir Putin pu and xiin ping two two uh you know revanchist powers on the Eurasian landmass uh who are determined you know to tear down the existing International order the existing rules of international discourse from uh you know from security to economic to fi to financial to how we Define human rights and replace that order with a new order that's sympathetic to their authoritarian model of governance and also you know China's statest mercantilist econom IC model and remember you know before the Beijing Olympics uh in 2022 they declared their partnership with no limits since then they've met several times as well and and xiin ping has noted that the world is in chaos but also thinks that that's a pretty good thing because it's an opportunity for China and Russia to tear down to tear down that system they've declared essentially uh what they're calling a new era of international relations and the message is in hey you're over United States you're over in the Free World it's our time now get used to it it's profoundly arrogant message that I think B real weaknesses with those those two states but they've brought in I think largely based on a perception of weakness in the United States and in the west other partners Iran with whom China has has uh and Russia both entered into strategic Partnerships uh and and North Korea you know the the only hereditary Communist dictatorship in the world have Kim shanan who doesn't want to be left out you know and has his own uh revist or you agenda aggressive agenda Visa in particular South Korea but also Japan and uh and and the United States uh and our forces on the peninsula so they're providing real material support to each other they're providing psychological informational and diplomatic support to each other uh and and what what has allowed I think this AIS of aggressors to coales is this perception of weakness and the belief that now is the time now is the time to accelerate toward the achievement of their objectives uh in their regions and for for China it's it's really a global uh objective they're pursuing with a number of big initiatives like we we know what that Belton Road predatory loaning uh you know TR trying to create survi relation relationships through PR these predatory loans and economic relationships uh but there's also you know the the the you know the global development initiative the Global Security initiative and maybe know of them all uh the global civilization initiative and these are all aimed explicitly at tearing down the existing order and allowing China uh really to gain a dominant role uh internationally wow wow and and so you would say kind of in terms of what ties them together is it is it pretty much only just opposition to the Free World and United States are there any is there anything else that kind of binds these countries together outside of that yeah there are real benefits right I mean China's energy poor uh and is the is the world's Hub which you know was you a tragedy that that happened uh of of uh of manufacturing and uh and so China is uh China is energy thirsty and Russia can quench that thirst and and you see increasing exports of oil and gas obviously to to China but also Russia needs China to sustain its War making machine to sustain its ability to continue the onslaught against Ukraine they're providing that support in a number of ways with their wolf Warrior diplomats who provide cover for Russian atrocities uh but really the the material support has been vast in terms of equipment and Hardware necessary to for Russia to continue to manufacture weapons and so these are often trans shipped through Central Asian countries for example but there's no doubt the Chinese companies Chinese banks are doing everything that they can uh to circumvent the sanctions against against Russia the other favors you know that that are exchanged between uh Iran and and Russia include Iran providing drones uh and missiles so Russia can continue its Onslaught against the Ukrainian people and in return Russia is providing a great deal of technical expertise to Iran on their missile programs on their Conventional Weapons capabilities Aviation for example uh and I believe on their nuclear program him jongan what what he wants is to break out of the isolation and Russia has helped him do that uh with providing the energy needs uh for uh for for North Korea that's let up a lot of pressure on North Korea what North Korea's for Russia is provided millions of artillery rounds and other arms to Russia uh in exchange for even more technical assistance again uh to to Kim jongan you know Putin and and Kim jongan met recently remember there driving around pongyang so they're helping them break out of the Diplomatic isolation as well and what all of them want to do is push the United States out of of critical regions as the first step of them achieving dominance in those regions so for example I think if Donald Trump is elected president what you're going to see right away is Kim jongan try to rekindle their romance and then what he's gonna do right after that is he's gonna say hey I've got a deal for you I'm going to satisfy your impulse toward retrenchment and in exchange for US forces leave leaving the peninsula and just letting me have only just a few nukes you know I will stop my longrange ballistic missile program and I'll limit my nuclear program he's going to hope to get something like an Iran nuclear deal a terrible deal for the United States is that what that would be now he won't get that from a trump Administration but he's posturing himself for that and and and of course you know Putin is helping him in that in that connection Iran what Iran wants to do is is to is to extend its hegemonic influence across the Middle East and what Iran would uh to and to do that they need to push the United States out of the Middle East isolate Israel and then establish really the ability uh to to e execute the the ring of fire strategy and and Destroy Israel and kill all the Jews I mean that that's what they really want to do and so what you hear o over and over again you know is this this Mantra of getting getting the us out of these regions so China can establish an exclusionary area of pracy across the Indo Pacific North Korea can get the US off the peninsula as the first step in unifying the Korean Peninsula under the under the so-called red banner right what Iran Iran wants to do is again to to extend honic influence and Russia wants to to reestablish itself as as a great power and reestablish the Russian Empire right I mean think of Vladimir Putin as Katherine the Great without the hoop skirt you know and so so this is they're all cooperating with these agendas and so what concerns me more than anything Jeremy is you know there's some people who say what we have to do is we have to play five-year-old soccer right and and because the threat to Taiwan the South China Sea is is what's most important we all need to run over to the Taiwan straight and to the South China Sea and when we do that we're going to get goals scored on us man in the Middle East you know uh and elsewhere in the world because the competition with this axis of aggressors is a global competition and so we and our lies have to be strong because what's going to deter them hard power's going to deter them hard power is going to deter them not you know not threats of sanctions not declassifying Intel we saw all this in in the runup uh to to to the reinvasion of Ukraine in 2022 not allaying their security concerns you know as the bid Administration tried to do hey these are our red lines everything else you know I guess it's fair game Putin thought we pulled our ships Out of the Black Sea we suspended lethal Aid to Ukraine you know we listed all the things we weren't going to do to support Ukraine help we then we evacuated our advisers and evacuated and scuttled our Embassy okay now that combined with the Afghanistan disastrous surrender to a terrorist organization withdrawal you can see why there's this perception of weakness you can see why there's this impetus for them to coales this sa of aggressors because they think we're done right if is capability times will they think our will is zero yeah well well on that note I mean there it does seem to be you know OB see policy makers on both in both parties seem to be be moving closer and closer towards this kind of isolationist attitude of just you know withdrawal and pulling America out of everything American leadership uh you know just kind of surrendering American leadership abroad um we make that case that leadership um actually ensures what we talk about here at Hudson the secure free and prosperous future yeah I I would say Jeremy they Hudson is is on top of this saw other think tanks and and Scholars I think it's really important to make two fundamental observations the problems that develop in these other parts of the world I would say especially the Middle East right uh which is you know which is daunting because you know it's always a violent place and and uh you know but but problems that develop there don't stay there you know and we've learned this over and over again you know with obviously 911 for example uh that that you know it's a really bad idea uh if jihadist terrorist organizations who want to kill our children you know uh have a safe haven and support base uh of course we we uh in in the in the withdrawal and surrender you know in Afghanistan we now have uh we now have scores of of al-Qaeda locations uh cropping up it's kind of like an RNR and a training site uh for Al-Qaeda uh so you know as an you know so problems that that you know that exist in other parts of world don't understand the second key thing is that that those problems can only be dealt with at an exorbitant cost once they reach our Shores now that doesn't that doesn't mean okay that we're going to solve The World's problems right we you know we're not going to conciliate uh the middle east's furies but when we disengage we embolden our our enemies look at what happened under the Biden Administration they said hey we want to get out of the Middle East they supplicated to the Iranians in an effort to resurrect the flaw Iran nuclear deal they relaxed sanctions which resulted in in the transfer of about 80 to 100 billion dollar into Iran's coffers you know they they undesignated the houthis as a terrorist organization how did that work out right uh so I think disengagement you know is you know is is really and the and the professed desire to disengage we didn't really disengage miles but we said oh we're leaving hey we're leaving you know and and of course that just encourages Iran and all of its proxy forces to give us a push out the door right right um I want to go zoom in a little bit on North Korea for a second because I know that a lot of we hear a lot of different Scholars have talked about this kind of AIS of of evil access aggressors and we hear Russia China and Iran we don't hear as much about North Korea as being a part of that why do you consider North Korea in your Calculus and this and this act aggressors um in particular well you know North Korea is the only hereditary Communist dictatorship in the world uh it's an extremely dangerous country because it has been an aggressor since you know June of 1950 when it invaded uh sou South Korea but people forget you know that that that North Korea has has launched you know a sustained campaign of subversion against South Korea uh since then you know and I think it's 1967 1968 they waged essentially Guerilla War uh against South Korea uh assassinated South Korean leaders during those years actually we lost more US soldiers in South Korea than we lost during the last couple of years in the Afghanistan war in South Korea in the late 60s right so so always there's and we've seen you know the shoot down of of uh of of a uh of a Korean uh South Korean aircraft we've had the sinking of South Korean vessels firing of artillery across the border I mean it's a dangerous place but also what's really important to to recognize about North Korea is that they've never met a weapon that they didn't try to sell to somebody you know including their nuclear program to Syria until uh until Israel bombed you know that that site in in uh uh 2007 you know I believe so so I I think that you know it's really important to recognize that uh North Korea having the most destructive weapons on Earth is a danger not only because of the direct threat to South Korea and Japan and may the United States if they have long enough missiles but also because of pro proliferation uh of those of those weapons maybe even the sale of weapons you could imagine to a jihadist terrorist organization absolutely um you know one of the things I've heard you to talk about this a little bit before is one of the kind of challenges to building strong coalitions especially with some of our strategic kind of partner Nations um is is our ability to demonstrate to them that the United States will see our commitments through to the end um but we know that in in today's political kind of polarized political climate new presidential Administration comes in and you know changes you know there's a a whole about face and what was been done before and they kind of get this back and forth um and it and it can be in to to get kind of allow our strategic Partners to invest in in long-term um kind of Partnerships with us how do we overcome that especially kind of in our in our polarized political climate well there are a couple ways that I mean you that are that to do that and I think first of all the president has such an important role in communicating to the American people what is it stake in these regions in the world first of all and then secondly what is a strategy that can help achieve a favorable outcome for the United States at an acceptable cost and risk and of course again assuring the American people you know we're not going around trying to solve all the world's problems what we're trying to do is engage engage with these competitions engage in these conflicts in a way that prevents them from getting worse that gets on a path to resolution but also you know but prioritizes US security and and at times economic interests associated with these competitions and these conflicts and also just to communicate in general that really sustained us commitment abroad including military commitments of capable uh joint military forces uh that alongside allies and partners can operate at sufficient scale and for ample duration to if necessary fight and win because it's that kind of capability and capacity that prevents Wars I think an American president is in a great position to explain to the American people hey it's a lot cheaper to prevent a war than to have to fight one and then of course to make sure we have the the resources and capabilities available I mean our our defense budget that the B Administration has submitted is anemic it's a real reduction and we're facing really major uh you know challenges in the world dangers in the world with the military that has a bow wave of deferred modernization and has inadequate capacity and has a recruiting issue in large measure I think because of some of the misguided policies and ideological approaches of the Biden Administration which have not infected the military in my view uh but many people think they've infected the military I think that's one of the reasons along with the disaster in Afghanistan while we have recruiting issues so I think that's that's the American president has a huge role I think bringing Congress in to the process early in the framing of these challenges soliciting recommendations from across the aisle before a policy done that is always helpful because you know what you're going to find you're going to find for example as I found that in the Democratic party when you convene with their leaders they have a wide range of views and so what happens is once your policy is rolled out you can say to them thank you for your advice because many of their views are reflected in the president's policies and then for the others maybe who you know who you didn't agree with or the president didn't agree with you know they've at least been consulted you know and so I think that kind of collaboration uh with Congress early in the policymaking process is another way another way is is in burdens sharing this is where president Trump has had a very strong argument Americans don't want you know people free riding on their large s and so if you get allies to demonstrate they're doing more like Japan Japan has doubled its defense budget Japan has reinterpreted its Constitution so we can have a real Mutual defense treaty Japan is developing Counter-Strike capabilities uh that I think are very important to detering conflict in Northeast Asia so I mean once you can say to the American people look they're stepping up South Korea for example you know has a very robust defense capability as increasing their defense spending both of those countries defay the cost of US forces such that if you were to move those US forces to the United States you would pay three or four times more as taxpayers to sustain those forces and their facilities all of this out for the American people is really important in terms of everyone understanding the real benefits to Americans you know of of U US forces positioned abroad uh alongside allies and partners wow that's good and you know I I U many of us I think even I've heard you say this too talked a lot about peace through strength you know this kind of Reagan Era motto about um about the importance of deterrence and then peace through strength is we as a good kind of kind of a North star in terms of path forward um but we also recognize that you know the world is very different now than it was you know 40 years ago um it's much more complex and kind of an interconnected Global landscape that we're involved in now in what ways what does P2 strength look like now and comparison to maybe how it looked how it looked like before uh but when you were graduating last point back in yeah well I think peace through strength is is now uh has to be demonstrated in more domains since the rean era cyberspace has emerged uh as a domain of of warfare uh so has space space is contested so as you're mentioning I think Jeremy the principle holds but you need a much broader range of of capabilities and you have to be able to integrate capabilities across all those domains you know uh when when I was uh still serving uh in the Army one of my missions was to help design the future force and one of the one of the terms we came up with you know which some of these terms can can be uh kind of trite but but it was it was multi-domain Warfare well Warfare has always been multidomain but what we were emphasizing is the need to be able to proect power across multiple domains cyber across the Cyber domain to affect the land domain and the air domain and the space domain and vice versa right all these domains uh and efforts within them and capabilities with them have to be integrated with a very high degree of sophistication and that's where you know that's where you know effective military operations come from is to understand that you know combat War it's it's rock paper scissors you know if you only have The Rock the paper is going to do you in you know so you know the scissors ready to go and so there are a lot of times when people think oh man now the Drone it's the Drone that's going to win future war or it's the you fill in the blank the newest Silver Bullet you know new forms of warfare typically don't replace older forms of warfare they're grafted on top of them I think you see that in in Ukraine for example so what we need to do is invest in in the broad range of capabilities that can demonstrate to our potential enemies uh that they cannot accomplish their objectives through Force at an acceptable cost you can also use you know obviously other elements of National Power right Financial economic and so forth but unless you have that hard power you know I mean that's what matters I mean I mean ultimately you have to hit somebody over the head Jeremy you know uh or have to have the ability to do it right right and um you know we we hear a lot about and I know that youve talked a lot about the importance of St staying engaged on all different fronts and we can't just you know run to to um to the to the Pacific and and forget the Middle East and and uh kind of leave our leave some parts of the world uh dis disengage part parts of the world we can't do that um but we also live in an era where we have to uh we have limited resources uh and and so obviously in an Ideal World we're engaged everywhere but how do we how do you kind of Stack Up Priorities as time you know time goes on and how and how should the next president um kind of address all the different um the next president address these challenges while still being able to um use our forces and make sure we have our Sports in a disposition that makes sense right well I mean we've been talking a lot about military competition but really the competitions that are playing out in other regions of the world are largely economic and diplomatic and financial and I think what we can do is we can provide an alternative uh to you know to to you know to China's predatory uh economic uh interactions and loans and so forth and we could do that uh think by emphasizing the benefit of our free market approach to to development for example and this could be an area where you know it'd be a win for us and other International companies because they could help uh you know other countries you know develop the infrastructure that they need for economic growth and development uh and and to do so in a way that doesn't compromise their sovereignty I mean I often say to to friends in Southeast Asia and Latin America and and Africa hey the choice you're facing is not a choice between Washington and Beijing it's really a choice between sovereignty and servitude and I think that should be our message in uh in these in these competitions and uh and I think there there are many other ways that we can compete much more effectively in the informational domain I think we we've been really Mal Adept at this Jeremy it frustrates the heck out of me you know I think it if we could pull the curtain back on on the behavior of the AIS of aggressors for for example uh and and counter their disinformation and propaganda about about us you know and uh and clarify our intentions in the world and ultimately you know trace the Grievances of a lot of these populations you know back to those who are creating those grievances look at how Venezuela the chavistas and amaduro have destroyed that country they've destroyed that country with the help of the Cubans the Russians uh the Chinese uh and the Iranians all of them have had a role there expose that and then you can help communicate more effectively to the Colombian people you know do you want to throw your lot in with this far-left Nut Job Petro or you know or do you you look at f as you want to be Venezuela no you don't want to be Venezuela you know and and look at the successful examples of sustained us partnership with Colombia with other countries in uh in in uh in Latin America for example so you know I think that we can we can compete at a low cost and much of these competitions are playing out in in the private sector you know and I think one of the first things we could do though also is stop underwriting our own demise with Investments uh into China uh smart money Investments but also the dumb money flows that are in some ways the scaffolding that holds up their status mercantilist economic model and allows them to weaponize it against us so and there's a lot we can do Jeremy to compete that's not you know not it's not military competition it's not lots of US soldiers positioned abroad uh it's it's really recognizing the nature of those competitions and integrating the elements of us and Allied economic power Financial power informational power which is quite considerable but kind of latent like we haven't we haven't mobilized it effectively right wow well I I just I know we're just out of time here H but I just it's first off just an honor to have you uh join with us and and and it's not every day you get to interview one of your Heroes so this is very cool for me personally you're one of my man we you know thanks for your service man and I've got one more thing though Go Army Beat Navy how about that beat Navy any day absolutely well thank you so much we love the Navy we know we actually love the Navy except that one day every year you know that one day that's right that's right one day we we we we have one mission that has been May uh well thank you and thank you for all of you watching at home uh you can continue to stay engage with us go to hudson. org you can all the events that we have coming up um and we'd love to uh to see you next time so thank you and continue to join us take care [Music]