Supercharged September: Atlantic Hurricane Season to Intensify Dramatically

ACU weather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter long range and our hurricane experts have been looking at conditions not only currently but we're what we're projecting ahead as we get toward the hurricane season John and we want to make a very special forecast that you can only find here on the acuweather network acuweather.com and the acuweather app that's right good morning Bernie we have concerns about a supercharged September AI weather hurricane and long range experts forecasting 6 to 10 name storms later August August 27th through September the Atlantic is going to awaken and become very active you know John it was back on March 26 we were the only source to actually give a forecast for the areas that we were most concerned about landfalling storms this was issued on the acuweather network acuweather.com and of course the free ACU weather app way back on March 26th we did and we highlighted several areas the Carina Coastline South Florida Florida Panhandle and parts of the Texas coast being at an increased risk for landfalls and what have we had already this year several landfalls in those areas yeah Barrel in the upper Texas coast uh deby had two landfalls near Steen hatchee along the Big Bend of Florida as a hurricane and then near Bulls Bay that is north of Charleston as a tropical storm so three of the four areas that we highlighted have already had a landfalling storm John let's take a look at the season so far we are running a little bit ahead of where we should be that's right by the Numbers a bit ahead of schedule uh the uh number of name storms five so far uh and uh certainly three hurricanes and one major hurricane but the big thing that stands out is the impacts that we've had significant impacts already in many parts of the United States yeah in fact John what you shouldn't be seeing right now are long trck hurricanes but yet we've had two of them including Barrel which was a major hurricane back in early July to me that's what stands out so far for this hurricane season that's correct and also the degree of the impacts the Inland flooding was severe in many cases with both of these storms caused lots of damage and uh and and much danger as well as the tornado risk especially with barrels so there's been a lot of impacts already as AI weather experts had warned before all other sources and the AI weather forecast uh is now for a little bit of a breather over the next week to 10 days John take a look at the tropics it's is as quiet as you'll see it this time of the year yeah you can almost hear a pin drop here across the entire Atlantic uh Basin but we do not want let people to let their guard down because this is going to be changing very quickly as we head toward the end of August and into September yeah take a look at the water vapor Loop and and here's some of the reasoning John that intertropical Convergence Zone you could see that little white and blue that's down at 10° North that should be at around 15° North that's one uh uh reason rationale for there to be less storms right now but really the big story is the dry air that's eye popping on that water vapor L yeah it stands out a lot that dry air is in this red and orange Hues and when you have so much dry air across the main part of the development region here in the Atlantic that suppresses the development of storms there's also been lots and you can see it in the wind here there's been lots of these clouds moving uh rapidly from from east to west there's been lots of easterly wind which is pretty uh atypical here coming off the coast of uh of Africa that wind has been uh also helping to uh reduce the number of storms too but that is also going to be changing all right yeah in fact let's take a look at the greed uh let's take a look at this again we think these conditions are still in play right through about August 26 so listen we're going to watch that area in the Gulf of Mexico I've been mentioning that all all week on the ACU Weather Network here but through August 26 it remains relatively quiet but then John all the ingredients we think uh start to change yeah that would be right along what we would typically be expecting this time of the year of course the peak of the hurricane season in terms of the number of name storms tends to be on uh September 10th and right on schedule that warm water less dust the dust is going to be less of a factor with that dry air and reduced wind shear means that the factors are going to come together as well as some of the other things that we look at around the world world that can help be a signal for increased activity in the Atlantic Basin all seems to be coming together during September yeah let's take a look at the supercharg September season that ACU weather is forecasting John so here's the 6 to 10 name storms uh during the uh uh course of September of course that's uh above the historic average we expect that there will be multiple storms to track on any given day as we head through September so a lot of activity to be keeping you updated about here all across all of the ACU weather uh platforms we are expecting a lower risk for direct landfalls from Long Island up into into New England uh but other than that we're expecting the other landfall areas that we highlighted again exclusively way back in March uh those will remain unchanged here as we head through the rest of the season so we need everybody along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast and Inland areas that can uh deal with isolated tornadoes and flooding impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes to be on alert but the long range team and also our hurricane experts don't stop with September the hurricane season lasts through November no and uh with that uh intensifying La ninia setup that we've been talking about for months we expect it will remain unusually active in October and November with multiple storms and the season may even last into December we may be tracking storms in parts of the Atlantic even as we head into December all right ACU weather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter with the special announcement again ACU weather predicting a supercharged September uh hurricane season 6 to 10 name storms from August 27th through September John thanks for joining us [Music]