NFL Injury Report - Sam LaPorta, Keenan Allen, Kyren Williams + more

all right what is good deepo Chona Sports mid analytics bringing you today's NFL injury updates thank you very much for joining now let's get it popping so we start with Sam leaport and the timing on this really confirms that this was a moderate severity hamstrings train he missed about 3 weeks in the preseason and training camp now the good news is he's already back at practice very likely playing week one at about 100% now the key here is that the reinjury risk is going to be about 15% with these hamstring strains and especially because his was about moderate severity we find approximately and again there's a range to this but that there's about a 5% risk per week missed so the first eight weeks of the Season mild reinjury risk but wouldn't really drop Sam leapor from his probably tight end one position overall then we have Keenan Allen now the comments here suggest he's got some sort of mild foot issue there a little bit vague the real key though is him returning to practice at full strength on Wednesday and if so then he very likely plays week one certainly the comments are suggesting that's the way this is trending Keenan Allen given his age given his history is a very high-risk player for the season and one thing that JJ zacharis and field Yates brought up on a podcast together is that you sometimes look for drafting players who are going to be useful for you in pockets and now Keenan Allen misses time that becomes real value for romad dun probably a top 20 wide receiver so thinking about that strategy in redraft League management is a little bit different than just looking at their total output for the season next up is Kiren Williams now there's a lot of fuss being made about him potentially Punt ruring and truthfully that wouldn't really change our evaluation of him at all in both a performance and a risk standpoint if you look at punt returning most likely you're usually Fair catching those and there's probably about one to two punt returns per game furthermore that in itself I think is less impactful than the fact that the Rams decided to draft Blake Corum and invest relatively heavily in the running back position so that that in combination with sha mcvey's comments suggests that they are bringing down Kiren Williams workload overall looking to load manage him somewhat this season the other part about Williams is that he's had some recurrent Foot and Ankle issues early on in his career and that in itself is also not a red flag but definitely a little bit of a yellow and you're looking at a second round pick so I would say mildly elevated relative risk at his ADP although we certainly don't have any reason to suspect strongly that he's going to get injured then we have Kyler Murray optimism here is really Rising he's even in the Darkhorse comeback uh Player of the Year candidates on DraftKings now the data here post ACL projects year one that you would have a dip in both your efficiency and the number of attempts as a quarterback and then in year two which is where he is now that this returns to your pre-injury rushing efficiency and explosiveness and Kyler Murray has even come out and talked about this meaning that he's said he didn't really trust his lateral movements and cutting off of an ACL changing direction that sort of thing is really where you see the limitations so Kyler Murray overall looking up from here then we have Mike Williams now he's likely playing week one certainly has been trending that way all off season the downside is that he's up there in age and furthermore his even though he's likely playing week one he's likely to be on a snap count so factoring in both the snap count and the dip in his efficiency both of those are likely to be in the 20 to 25% range so the data projects him to really need a solid amount of time to ramp back up probably until about week 10 next up is T Higgins and he's not injured and we're glad to say he's not injured you look at last year's stats and I would say they're heavily impacted by injury T Higgins had a rib injury partway through the season early on before that Joe burrow had his calf issue and then at the end of the season or towards the sort of second half Joe burough had that wrist injury now when they were both healthy there's really only a two- game sample to work with and during those two games again very limited sample but 6 and a half receptions 90 yards per game so we think T Higgins is in for a bounceback year and that of course assumes that Joe burrow and T Higgins can stay healthy Devonte Adams now he's missed some practice he missed a preseason game a little bit unclear of a diagnosis here the comments certainly suggest mild severity and it's even been described as soreness and with Devonte Adams relatively high durability history meaning that he's been on injury reports and played through a lot of issues so we would expect him to be active week one no strong reason to suggest that this is going to be a lingering issue however we would want to see that he is coming back to practice early this coming week next up is Tyler Lockett and the concern on him is actually Rising so the practice reports are going to be key to his week one status particularly that Wednesday Thursday practice report however they're calling this a leg injury he is up there in age at age 31 so given those two combinations those two uh factors he is a high inseason injury risk and I think it's very wise to invest in jsn over Tyler Lockett given the current situation that lock is dealing with also on the Seahawks Zack shanet he was dealing with some back tightness and the this is I would say one level down from a back spasm so the issue here is that there is some recurrence risk and you can imagine as a running back you're going to take all sorts of hits and your back is going to be tightened up at various points so there is a recurrence risk here he is is practicing now he's very likely playing week one and likely without any production dip so as long as he stays active you usually don't see the the productivity dip for running backs but the key is can he stay healthy all year next up we have Tim Patrick hard not to root for a player coming off of these big of injuries of course he was released from the Broncos last week he's now on the Lions which is promising in one sense and that he is likely to have opportunity if he can stay on the field the question here is that he had a 2022 ACL right at the beginning of the Season then same time last year tours Achilles that is such a brutal combo that's basically the Klay Thompson combo and if you look at it he's aged 30 he had average pre-injury athletic metrics for a wide receiver about 50 to 60th percentile so data projects a pretty significant dip about 20 25% for Patrick next up is Joey Bosa of the Chargers so week one would be five weeks post hand surgery you often see a cast or a club on the hand for about 6 weeks to kind of protect the surgical site while it's healing now the data would suggest a mild production dip and it's a little bit limited data but the data would suggest a mild production dip until about 2 weeks after the cast does come off and the reason for that is once it comes off then you start really strengthening and it usually takes couple weeks to get that back now even Joey Bosa with a production dip is still an elite player so certainly expect to see him out there for week one next up is Dre Greenlaw he's on the pup as you may remember he tore his Achilles uh he has there's a lot of variability on the data for timeline to return here and we're seeing these timelines getting pushed up and up you see Jaylen Phillips came back early cam Acres of course had come back early James Robinson before the him or after him now the current thinking at least our thinking is that he misses four weeks on the pup of course and then after that probably November is pretty realistic in terms of timeline to return but for a past rusher you would expect a pretty heavy dip here in terms of his production so that is the downside on Dre Greenlaw there's also a little bit of an increased injury risk relatively mild injuries do tend to occur when you haven't been in let's say football shape so the first six weeks you do send to see a little more common soft tissue strains for players like this returning off a major injury next up we have the Bengals amarius Mims so he's their first round rookie tackle that they brought in to help protect Joe burrow he strained his Peck early on and it seems like at least a moderate somewhat High severity PEC strain based on the timeline that they reported now the average here is going to be about 4 weeks which which would give him a chance for a week one or week two return typically see a low performance impact when offensive linemen are back but the key is with especially with an offensive lineman for these injuries you're constantly firing your PEC to engage in blocks so it's going to be a high reinjury risk if they Rush him back then another offensive lineman Lions Pine Su so the idea here is that he went out of practice with a foot and ankle issue he had a negative MRI which is great news and then he was diagnosed with what sounds like a low ankle sprain that usually would not hold offensive lineman back meaning that they he would likely be playing week one at about 100% there is a little bit of a reinjury risk here about 10% so relatively mild but Pine suul overall looking promising so far then we have cardinals Darius Robinson he has a calf strain and the reports suggest that it's at least a moderate severity the average on these would be about 4 weeks but the key is with rushing back you have a relatively high risk of reinjury now he's a young player and we would expect them to go slow because these can turn bad pretty fast you saw Joe bur last year we've seen Achilles tears really derail people's careers so we don't want to rush Darius Robinson back and that's kind of why we're expecting a slow return here next up we have DJ reer Now of the Lions formerly of the Bengals he has passed his physical I would say he still needs likely to ramp up so probably returning week two or three is the most realistic the key though is that he tore his quad tendon and when you do that there's a pretty big production dip for the first year back so it's about 20% that's that's recorded so far in our data and it's one of those things where DJ reader will probably be seeing a little bit of ramp up maybe not a full workload right away next up River Craycraft in line to potentially have the wide receiver three rooll for Miami which could be quite valuable especially if obj continues to be out now they didn't report what the actual injury was they just said it's a shoulder injury it's a severe shoulder injury and those comments plus the fact that they moved him to the IR pretty fast really confirm that this is high severity the most concerning possibility here is probably a shoulder dislocation and the reason is that that carries a relatively high recurrence risk so keeping that in mind we we think that there is a possibility that Craycraft comes back after he's eligible off the pup but with that being said high recurrence risk is is really the key concern here and then last but not least we have Roman Wilson so the video and images on Roman Wilson suggest that he had a high ankle several weeks ago he's now practicing and in a limited form we would expect him to get back to somewhat of uh increased practice participation this coming week and really watching those practice reports as the key however the data so far and including his progression does suggest that he would probably be playing week one and with that coming off a high ankle for a wide receiver typically do see about a 15% efficiency and Target dip meaning that 15% fewer targets and 15% less efficiency so overall that comes out to about a 20 25% overall production hit now with Roman Wilson the key will be reinjury risk and that's probably the reason they don't rush these back in general for a high ankle sprain the concern is cutting pivoting and that's obviously key for what a wide receiver has to do so we we have to imagine that if there's concern this week week in practice then they're going to go slow with him however we would think that Roman Wilson has a good chance of being active week one and that's all we got for today thank you for tuning in and as always drop your questions and comments in drop your questions in the comment section and hit us up on Twitter Instagram and we will be in touch soon peace