NFL Injury Updates - Hollywood Brown, Tyreek Hill, Jamhyr Gibbs + more

all right what is good deepo Chona Sports M analytics bringing you some NFL injury updates today thank you very much for joining now let's get it [Music] popping now we start with Maris Hollywood Brown the news came out from Andy Reid that he will sit week one that's really not a setback we really planned for that the whole time if you will they had given us a week one to week three range for him and prior data meaning Tyreek Hill a few years back and Danny amandola before him same position with the same injury both missed a full four weeks and then returned on the fifth for Maris that would be week two as a realistic Target return date now the data on both of those previous cases supports him playing at a pretty high level upon return and mechanically that makes a lot of sense to us as well because this SC joint right in the middle of the chest area isn't one that you would expect to cause a lot of weak weakness or any major changes in the way that Hollywood Brown moves his arm so we would expect him to come back at a strong level probably week two but likely not later than week three there should be a relatively low reinjury risk with this because it's a relatively rare injury to begin with and then we have Tyreek hill now the comments have suggested that he's dealing with a very mild severity thumb injury obviously a thumb injury for a wide receiver could be a big deal because it can affect grip strength the fact that he's been doing drills on the side does somewhat softly suggest this is a mild injury but the comments in general in the offseason and in training camp tend to always downplay injuries so we can't really take a whole lot just from that the early week practice status coming up will really confirm or refute the severity of this then we have Jonathan Brooks he's placed on the pup that's not a setback and that's really important to remember because if you look here the data on Jonathan Brooks when he comes back he it does predict him to come back week five there is going to be likely a 4-week ramp up period which is the average for young running backs and that's to get their touches up to Baseline but if you look at Jonathan Brooks's ceiling it is truly League winning upside in the sense that his profile is quite similar to Bree Hall from last year and Hall last year had 130 yards per game one touchdown per game his last five weeks of the season so Brooks when he first comes back likely week five projects to be at about 85% of his per touch efficiency for production and then as he ramps up his touches you're looking at about week nine or so when he should be at near full strength from a snap count and workload perspective and then at that point is also the time point when he is projecting to hit about 90% of his per touch efficiency so the last few weeks of the year and particularly your fantasy playoffs that that could be a real boost to your team then we have jir Gibbs now preseason hamstrings do increase our inseason injury risk jir Gibbs also has had a prior significant hamstring injury so all of that taken together there's about a 20% reinjury risk compared to other running backs the first eight weeks of this season however we do expect a strong start to the season here the data projects him to be at 90 or more per of his per touch efficiency week one the one thing to keep in mind and especially more for the DFS players is that when players come back from hamstring injuries because of that reinjury risk we do tend to see a mild dip in their touches particularly when their backup is strong and David Montgomery is about as good as a second running back as there is so we do expect a little bit extra work for David Montgomery and a little less for jir Gibbs in those first couple weeks next up is puka nakua now this one one is interesting in the sense that it's not every day that we hear such clear such Clarity from a coach on what the injury diagnosis is sea McVey came out saying this is a baa injury a burst baa injury and these can swell up they can be annoying sometimes painful but they're not structurally unstable so it can safely be played through even if it flares up in season now given that he's had several weeks now and he's already returned to practice puka n is likely going to be 100% at week one we don't really think this should downgrade him in any way and furthermore when we look at Shawn mcvey's coache index rating on injury accuracy it's 90% that is about as high as I've seen from from that very good service so we would expect us to be able to trust that puka nakua will be on the field and playing very well low reinjury risk for the season next is Christian mcaffrey also Al likely playing week one at 100% the issue with these calf injuries and his was reportedly mild and they gave him plenty of time to rest but we saw this with Joe burrow last year that these can get reag grav in season because you're always pushing off of the toes and using that calf muscle pretty forcefully especially for a running back so there is a mildly elevated reinjury risk in season compared to the other Elite running backs Bree Hall bejon Robinson so if you're looking for a tiebreaker that might be it at the top of your draft but otherwise Christian mcaffrey is likely in line for a very strong season then we have Deshawn Watson of course pretty pretty strange of a injury situation and pretty strange guy honestly we have reported arm soreness last week but if you look at the reports it came out that he was going to play the preseason game and then it came out that he didn't want to play the preseason game we're suspecting that this arm soreness label was maybe a way of avoiding controversy when he wanted to sit out the preseason and furthermore that is kind of strengthened by the fact that his offensive line is pretty beat up and they probably didn't want to put him out there for no reason now the data on these types of injuries and he had a fracture in his shoulder socket that was treated with surgery last year the data favors him being 100% by week 1 and also for football players relatively low reinjury risk when these fractures are fixed so I do expect DeShaun Watson to be at 100% whatever that looks like that's really kind of the main wild card here but there's a low reinjury risk and and if you're looking for a healthy Deshawn you're probably going to see it week one then Joe burrow now this one is interesting in the sense that his injury history is super long he's had wrist surgery he's had knee surgery for an ACL MCL tear he had a pretty significant cast train at the beginning of last year in last training camp and before that he had a finger injury that uh caused him to have surgery as well so it's a long injury history but if you look at it there's no anatomic pattern or weak link that tells me this is an injury prone player and furthermore if you look at the data favor following his wrist ligament surgery that he just had that projects a pretty strong 2024 for him now the there's been a lot of reports about data on this type of surgery not being favorable for quarterbacks but a lot of the data that's published out there is not in the setting of acute repair and not in the setting of The Modern implants meaning the internal brace Joe burrow had surgery right after the injury occurred and they have the strongest implants in today's generation so you have to think that these two factors together probably predict a strong return with his grip strength and with his throwing function so I I don't necessarily expect any dip here Joe burrow is around a plus 300 on draftking Sportsbook for the comeback Player of the Year award and pretty good value if you ask me then Justin Herbert now dealing with the planner fascia injury the downside to this is that the planner fascia is the type of thing that can flare up in season I would say it's a relatively low chance because if you look at the severity of his injury we kind of know for sure that it's relatively mild in the sense that he missed 2 to 3 weeks in a boot of training camp but he came back unrestricted well before the game started about two and a half weeks before games actually start so that timeline in the way they manage training camp injuries confirms that this is relatively mild we do expect him to start the season with strong mobility and Justin Herbert even if this does flare up it can be managed in season with things like injection or putting him in a boot to rest it for the midweek portion so with his durability history of playing through tons of injuries relatively low chance it even causes missed games here then we have Josh DS now he's progressing he's out of the boot he's walking relatively normally is what we hear from reports that's a big difference from cutting off of a high ankle so data suggests that week one is a possibility but that week two or three is much more likely when Josh DS Returns the reason you don't really push these guys back is because when they return there is somewhat of a reinjury risk and the faster you come back the higher that reinjury rate is so if he returns week one we're looking for an efficiency dip about 15% is what our data projects but more importantly a reinjury risk up to about 20 to 25% week 2 to three that reinjury risk is a little bit lower but until about week six is when we expect to see that go to its Baseline level for wide receivers next is TJ hackinson also on the pup not really a surprise here pretty big injury two ligaments in the knee and pretty late in the season so we wouldn't really expect a week five return here even though that's when he becomes eligible the data on TJ hackinson predicts more likely a mid October to early November return date now he's young he's about 26 years old at the time of injury he has relatively High Athletic metrics 80th percentile for his position so sometimes players can push that up especially with those two predictive factors but when he does come back the data does favor about a 15% efficiency dip initially we also seem to think he's going to be getting a a ramp up and and that comes from some of the comments that have been made so far now the last third of the season the last six or so games that's when he projects to hit his 90% level and if he's Act ated in even early November we would expect that ramp up to have occurred by the end of November so those last few games in your fantasy playoffs TJ hackinson could be a big boost next is Jaylen Warren now very likely playing week one but off of a hamstring injury these can recur there's about a 15% reinjury risk the data very similar to jir Gibbs suggests about a 90% efficiency compared to his Baseline but with importantly decreased touches compared to normal and that's also important because he has Nai Harris as his backfield running mate so you would expect Nai to get a little bit extra work here next is Nick chub also on the pup also not really a surprise or a setback a week five return here would be very surprising to me now two multi- ligament knee injuries on the on a single knee is essentially unprecedented territory which is where Nick chub is coming back from there are major dips projected and that we'd say is is 25% or more that is projected in terms of his per touch efficiency when he does come back initially furthermore you're likely to see a long ramp up the average is about four games but I wouldn't be surprised to see that be much higher or even them keep a Jerome Ford Nick chub split the entire uh way this regular season and the reason for that is that reinjury on this knee could totally end his career so we would expect a slow return give him plenty of time to regain his strength regain his agility reportedly he has of course we've seen the video of him squatting a ton of weight which is great and impressive in its own way but it's very different than one making cuts and two getting hit so we we think there's some way to go with Nick chub again lot of risk here so would expect them to go slow then Packers Christian Watson so it's a little unclear what his role would be just because they have such a deep wide receiver core but I really like the way things are shaping up for him in terms of his future injury risk compared to before now they talked about Christian Watson having be before during last season a 20% hamstring strength asymmetry and that's pretty massive and the reason is that asymmetry between the two legs is a major risk factor for injury when I test my patients for return to sports we look at side to side strength of every muscle group and Watson's is reportedly less than 10% now and that's a key threshold because it drastically lowers your injury risk when you hit that 90% point so with Christian Watson there's no guarantees here but we would say compared to the normal player who has a ton of hamstring injuries Christian Watson's is probably his risk is probably lower than that then his teammate Marshon lyd another hamstring he's not practicing yet that the data does slightly favor him playing week one and he did avoid the the pup or the NFI or IR but the early week practice reports here are going to be key and there's a high reinjury risk here the first eight weeks because you have to remember Marshon Lloyd is not just dealing with a hamstring but this is actually already a re-aggravated hamstring from earlier this offseason then James Bradberry on the eagles they said tendon injury nonoperative treatment 6 to 8 weeks not a clear diagnosis but the thing to keep in mind is that you would expect some performance dip when he returns just because he's going to have some pretty significant activity limitations when he has this tendon injury presumably with that length of time he's going to be in a boot for some of it and not going to be fully weightbearing or at least probably limiting how much he's going to do on that and as a result you're going to get some atrophy some disuse of the muscles and that's going to be the real concern when he does come back then the bills Matt Milano limited data here on same season return for biceps repair he is probably I would think four to five months which would put him December to January he had surgery in August and the reason for that is that most of us start our biceps repair patients on real significant strengthening at about 3 months postop and it usually takes a little bit of time at least a few weeks to really ramp up that strengthening once it starts so with Matt Milano would think that you can get him back probably for the playoffs in the last maybe third of the Season then talanoa huanga of the 49ers post ACL the playing week one is possible but feels pretty ambitious the other part of this is that DBS do tend to see a pretty significant production dip their first year back he is cleared from the standpoint of he can participate in practice now but again we do expect to see a little bit of a ramp up my guess is probably sometime week two or week three is when you see hu funga starting to get back and that's all I got for today so let us know who you got for questions hit us up on Twitter Instagram or right here in the comment section and as always you can search Sportsman analytics.com for all of our updates thanks for joining