NFL Injury Report - Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Brock Bowers + more

what is good deepo Chona here Sports mid analytics bringing you another round of NFL injury updates thank you very much for joining now let's get it [Music] popping now we start with the dolphins and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen waddle both have been on the injury report now both are practicing we'll start with Tyreek Hill the timeline here confirms that this was in fact a mild thumb issue there's a relatively low chance of re-aggravating this although certain a re-aggravation of a thumb injury for a wide receiver would be a big deal however given the relatively low risk we wouldn't really lower his value here and then his teammate Jaylen Wadd now the reports out of Miami have been a little bit vague they've all suggested that this has been a mild issue and the fact that he came back with a sleeve over his calf does suggest that this was in fact a calf strain he missed about three weeks with this injury now with preseason models three weeks with a calf strain correlates to about a 15% re-aggravation risk for wide receivers that's relatively low but it's not zero and we would expect when he's healthy and he's out there relatively low impact of this injury now you do remember Joe Burrow's calf and that may scare away some drafters which is not totally unreasonable but overall the data is in jayen Wen Waddles favor both and Tyreek Hill probably playing 100% week one then we have Maris Holly hwood Brown of the Chiefs now he has had the SC joint dislocation right in this area of the shoulder and when you have that injury the timeline is typically about five weeks or at least historically it has been five weeks to return and that would be week two for Hollywood Brown the key here is that the comments so far are strengthening our suspicion for that outcome and and what we mean by that is is they're saying he's made a remarkable recovery he's getting close etc etc and that all points towards him coming back probably week two would be very surprised if it's later than week three and when he does come back the data does seem to be in favor of a strong return to his pre-injury performance level next up Ricky peol obviously very scary incident from a couple days ago but this man is made of steel he walked to an ambulance after getting shot in the chest which is amazing and then was discharged the very next day so the reports suggest really the best possible outcome here we would think you're looking at a four to six week absence he was of course placed on the non-f football injury list for now and we would lean to a week five or six return for peol next up is Brock Bowers so reports are that he's got foot soreness now there is some concern here just because he has had a recent ankle tight RPP surgery at towards the end of last season now certainly he did come back from that and we do suspect that this is in fact mild and and that he does practice fully on Wednesday now if he practices in full all week we think he plays week one at 100% we have relatively low risk here but just the fact that he has had some ankle issues having some foot soreness this not necessarily close but not far from surgery is a little bit of a yellow flag so we got to watch this one a little bit carefully next up Jordan Addison of the Vikings he returned to practice which confirms that this was in fact a mild ankle issue it's a little unclear because the reports were originally suggesting that this was a high ankle variety but he in either case the timeline essentially confirms that it's relatively mild now we're going off the assumption that it is a high ankle in which case he would expect a 10% Target dip his first week out there next we have Nick chub now the reports suggests that week five is not his Target return which would be his earliest eligible date coming off the pup it would be smart to go very slow here and if Nick chub was my patient I would tell him that you're not likely to hit your pre-injury level of strength or or symmetric strength between the two quads even in the course of this year just because of the nature of this injury and a reinjury here would probably be career ending cuz he's had two multi- ligament KNE injuries on the same knee pretty high chance of developing arthritis developing other issues in that knee so we got to think they're going to go very slow with this the average is a four game ramp up but I would expect this one to go even slower next up we have Tyler Lockett of the Seahawks he has been out with a knee injury he's trending towards playing week one and he says he feels fine he feels close to 100% now he's aged 31 so he is going to be a high reinjury risk for the season especially having this preseason injury already you would expect a little bit of a stats dip for Tyler Lockett in his first few weeks back but nothing severe the key is though that season long reinjury risk next up the Packers Marshon Lloyd so he returned to practice he's now practiced two days in a row the data on hamstrings for running backs who have practiced fully does favor a return to about 90% of their pre-injury efficiency the concern though is there's a relatively high reinjury risk for the first eight weeks after this injury and that's up to about 25% and that's specifically High because Marshon Lloyd was already dealing with a hip or a hamstring injury earlier this season and we consider this a re-aggravation really the other aspect of this is that you typically see the running back get fewer touches their first four weeks back so Marshon Lloyd yes he's likely to play he's likely to play reasonably well but we're not sure that he's going to get a full load here Emanuel Wilson may get a little bit extra run then the Cowboys Brandon Cooks so the comments and reports suggest mild knee injury he is sounds like he's leaning towards playing week one the key though is that we don't have any really substantiated reports or diagnoses or anything specific to go off of so we're taking their word for it their words are often misleading and keeping that in mind we would expect him to play week one but we' confirm that with early week practice reports of course if he's out there even in limited Fashion on a knee injury you typically would see an older wide receiver try to suit up now the key with him like Tyler Lockett even though it's only a mild performance dip expected you do expect an elevated reinjury risk here for the whole season next up a little bit of optimism Jaylen Warren of the Steelers looking pretty solid and honestly that's pretty expected similar to Marshon Lloyd the data him playing week one at about 90% efficiency the concern here also like Lloyd is that these are prone to reinjury for the first eight weeks now Jaylen Warren's variety of hamstring seemed to be less severe than Marshon Lloyd's and part of that is that Jaylen Warren was not a re-aggravation like Lloyd's was and so you would expected his reinjury risk to be a little lower than Lloyd but nonetheless as a result of that reinjury risk you often see the other running backs in the committee get a few extra touches and maybe that means more run for Naji Harris week one next we have the Patriot jacobe brassette the video which had him landing on the shoulder looked like an AC sprain now that is something that's commonly played through sometimes even managed with an injection the key though is that you often for quarterbacks if it's affecting them do see dips in their accuracy on the Deep ball and also going across their body deep so for jacobe brassette you might see that happen it's not really a high level passing attack to begin with so maybe a little bit more for value for the uh short short game tight ends and running backs and then we break down the comeback Player of the Year odds here so we look at the group of favorites first and that's Aaron Rogers Joe burrow Kirk Cousins Rogers is listed at plus 140 Joe burrow at plus 300 and Kurt Cousins at Plus 500 if you look at the favorites I think it's they're the favorites for the for a reason and that reason is probably because the data for all three of these guys is actually relatively favorable for a good season now Aaron roders and Kirk Cousins both coming off Achilles you would expect Kirk Cousins to be a little bit more heavily impacted by his Achilles for two reasons one his was on the rights side and for a right-handed quarterback pushing off of that same side leg is going to be a little more impactful than Rogers pushing off of his left the other aspect of this is that neither one of these is really a mobile quarterback Rogers has had his his scrambling numbers his rushing numbers coming down since about 2020 and we would expect that Trend to continue kir cousins pretty much the same story they both have pretty strong o lines this year and if you look at it they're not likely to tolerate a lot of pressure since they're not likely to be able to escape the pocket easily so you would think that Aaron Rogers and Kurt Cousins are both actually kind of set up pretty similarly then you look at Joe burrow and again this is one of the injuries that has drawn a lot of Buzz and a lot of concern because Joe burough has not been practicing several days in a row uh now what when I say that I should clarify that he has not been practicing 4 days consecutively but he has been involved in practice so uh when he has been involved the reports say that he looks sharp and that's really what I would expect the data on a cute repairs of the wrist tend to support regaining full range of motion and grip strength which are the key factors in how you throw the ball so with Joe burrow Aaron Rogers Kurt Cousins I think it's reasonable to have optimism on all three however I would lean towards taking Joe burrow and or Kirk Cousins just based on the value here of the bet now the plus 40 for Rogers not unreasonable at all but it does feel a little low given the depth of the candidate in this particular class and then we have a group of guys that feel truthfully like a little bit of a waste of money and we start that group off with Nick chub at plus 1200 again he's not likely to return week five you think an average ramp up is about four games Nick's Chubs is probably going to be slower than that and we do project pretty major efficiency dips for chub even up to about 25% so with all that in mind it seems unlikely to me that Nick chub is going to be a strong candidate for comeback player of the year then you have Daniel Jones he's plus 2,000 coming off the ACL so good value I guess but from the other standpoint data post ACL for quarterbacks does project a return to their pre-injury passing level however it does also project a dip in their rushing and you also have to remember Daniel Jones wasn't really good before his ACL except for a little bit of a window the first year when Brian dble was his coach so with all that in mind I don't think an ACL is going to make him better and therefore I would not bet on Daniel Jones and then last in this group we do have TJ Hawkinson now this is a guy I'm certainly rooting for he's plus 10,000 which tells you he's a long shot but the reason for that is that he's also not super likely to come back week five when he's eligible off the pup the most more likely outcome here is according to our data at least mid October to early November now TJ hackinson is likely to also face a little bit of a ramp up particularly in his explosiveness and efficiency so the data projects him getting to 90% of his pre-injury strength at week 12 and workload limitations really until that time as well now with all that in mind it's pretty hard to argue that that is a strong comeback Player of the Year candidate especially when the favorites that we just talked about above are all likely to have strong Seasons pretty much from the jump and then I got one long shot that I do think is worth betting on and that is the Chargers JK Dobbins so the Achilles which is what he's coming off of from week one is a brutal blow for running backs but we haven't really seen that many 90 plus percentile athletes in their Prime try to attempt it and that if if you look at JK Dobbins his injury history is significant but it really all stems from his prior multi- ligament knee injury where he had ACL meniscus LCL all injured and all operated on surgically so he had that in 2021 he ended 2022 with 100 yards per game averaging 100 yards per game in his last five games and to me that suggests that he was pretty much fully back and so going into 23 I would say we had essentially our data predicts because we couldn't really look at his one game sample size for anything meaningful the data does predict that he was at his pre-injury levels by the time 2023 started so it's almost like you're looking at a clean Achilles as the sole injury that he's coming back from he's had a full year we do see players come back earlier than that James Robinson cam Acres just to name a couple of quick running backs in recent years so JK Dobbins I think he has a very real very reasonable shot because even if he's not 100% and the data does suggest he's likely to have at least a 15 to 20% efficiency dip if he gets the workload in a very productive potentially productive running game with a strong offensive line with with Jim Harbaugh as his court as his coach you would think that JK Dobbins may get the opportunity to really show us something here and at plus 4,000 I think those are odds worth taking and that's all we got for today thank you again for joining if you have any more questions leave them in the comment section or hit us up on Twitter Instagram you can also always check our website Sports analytics.com and search through every injury update until then we'll see you next time