In 2016-2020, pollsters underestimated Donald Trump's support in several key battleground states.

Published: Sep 04, 2024 Duration: 00:01:26 Category: News & Politics

Trending searches: real clear politics
will polls underestimate Donald Trump again welcome to the real cler quick take in 2016 and again in 2020 National and state polls consistently underestimated Trump support this was especially true in Wisconsin in 2016 polls underrated Trump's finish in Wisconsin by whopping 7.2% four years later pollers again missed badly in the badger state This Time by 6.0% in Pennsylvania pollsters under estimated Trump strength in 2016 by 2.8% and in Michigan by 3.9% 4 years later the RCP average was spot on in Pennsylvania while polling in Michigan was better but still underestimated Trump's performance by 1.4% polls in Arizona and Georgia have been the most accurate over the last two cycles gauging Trump support within a half a percentage point on average Nevada is the only Battleground state where polls overestimated Trump's support on average in 2016 final polls showed Trump with a slim lead over Hillary Clinton she won the state by 2.4 points in 2020 the polls in Nevada were spot on if you look at the current RCP averages and apply the average margin by which poll's underestimated Trump's support in these states in 2016 and 2020 Trump would move ahead of Harris in Wisconson Michigan and Pennsylvania maintain small leads in Arizona and Georgia and fall behind Harris in Nevada get all the latest polls at Rook ping.com

Share your thoughts

Related Transcripts

RealClearPolitics: Will Democratic Convention Protests Live Up to Hype? thumbnail
RealClearPolitics: Will Democratic Convention Protests Live Up to Hype?

Category: News & Politics

Welcome back to real clear politics on siriusxm i'm andrew walworth and we're coming to you live from the democratic national convention in chicago i've got tom bevon with me i've got carl cannon with me and joining us for this segment is alex mckenzie walworth happens to be my wife chicago native and... Read more

More than one quarter of American voters identify as independent. thumbnail
More than one quarter of American voters identify as independent.

Category: News & Politics

Welcome to the real clerk quick take according to exito data over the last 11 presidential cycles independence have comprised nearly 27% of the electorate during that 44e span only two candidates have managed to win the white house while losing the independent vote one of those candidates was george... Read more

It's been a tough month for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. in the RCP National Average thumbnail
It's been a tough month for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. in the RCP National Average

Category: News & Politics

There's trump and there's harris but how's the other guy doing welcome to the real clerk quick it's been 10 months since robert f kennedy jr left the democratic party to run for president as an independent since then he slid from 16.7% to under 5% in the rcp national average taking a particularly large... Read more

In the past few decades, no state has been as closely divided as the Badger State. thumbnail
In the past few decades, no state has been as closely divided as the Badger State.

Category: News & Politics

No state has been more closely divided over the last two decades than the badger state in 2000 george w bush lost the state to al gore by 578 votes and again did john ky in 2004 by 11,384 votes in 2016 trump won a shocking victory in wisconsin by just 22748 votes only to lose the state to joe biden... Read more

Tom Bevan: Swing State Polls Are Remarkably Close, Most Within Two Points thumbnail
Tom Bevan: Swing State Polls Are Remarkably Close, Most Within Two Points

Category: News & Politics

Well uh jd vance i think was in pennsylvania as well today in philadelphia um tom are they smart to be sort of focused right now on that state is that really the key swing state at this moment it is although i think the polling shows that a lot of these other states that were kind of off the board when... Read more

Sean Trende: Polls Come With Error Margins and Response Bias, Let the Data Speak for Itself thumbnail
Sean Trende: Polls Come With Error Margins and Response Bias, Let the Data Speak for Itself

Category: News & Politics

Intro but sean you wrote about a there's a debate that's going on there was actually a fight a bit of a fight between writer at the washington post and uh jesse waters of fox news talk a little bit about this and what what is the debate about what's the fight about the washington post vs jesse waters... Read more

'The Five': Are polls underestimating Trump and his support? thumbnail
'The Five': Are polls underestimating Trump and his support?

Category: News & Politics

♪ ♪ >> judge jeanine: fox news alert, former president from just took the stage in arizona at his first rally since the debate. we are keeping an eye on that. in the meantime come underestimate trump at your own peril. the liberal media seems to be forgetting the lessons of 2016. after fawning over... Read more

New poll shows Harris leading Trump by 5 points post-debate thumbnail
New poll shows Harris leading Trump by 5 points post-debate

Category: News & Politics

Of the secretary. >>> just 53 days away from the election and following the first debate, new polling shows that harris has widened her lead. the new reuters poll found that the vp is up by five points with harris at 47% against trump's 42%. the same polling last month showed harris with... Read more

These key states have become 'toss-ups,' Fox News polling shows thumbnail
These key states have become 'toss-ups,' Fox News polling shows

Category: News & Politics

Peter doocy, thank you so much. bill, i turn it over to you. >> bill: show you power rankings about to be revealed for the first time. there are changes. we believe right now that north carolina and georgia have had a shift. they've had some movement. i want to direct your attention down to the... Read more

Hillary Clinton Calls Biden's Withdrawal 'Exciting!' – A Shocking Reaction to Election Shakeup thumbnail
Hillary Clinton Calls Biden's Withdrawal 'Exciting!' – A Shocking Reaction to Election Shakeup

Category: News & Politics

Hillary clinton calls biden's withdrawal 'exciting!' – a shocking reaction to election shakeup Read more

Harris widens lead against Trump in new poll following the debate thumbnail
Harris widens lead against Trump in new poll following the debate

Category: News & Politics

Of the secretary. >>> just 53 days away from the election and following the first debate, new polling shows that harris has widened her lead. the new reuters poll found that the vp is up by five points with harris at 47% against trump's 42%. the same polling last month showed harris with... Read more

Nate Silver explains how Harris could beat Trump thumbnail
Nate Silver explains how Harris could beat Trump

Category: News & Politics

We have harris just ahead in the polls right now because after the convention the party is usually on a little bit of a sugar high we have that more like 50/50 for election day so yeah harris would love to the if we could have a snap election in the us harris would call one right now right she has momentum... Read more