Tom Bevan: Swing State Polls Are Remarkably Close, Most Within Two Points

Published: Aug 19, 2024 Duration: 00:02:48 Category: News & Politics

Tags : politics polling takeaway rcp RealClearPolitics Tom Bevan Carl Cannon

Trending searches: realclearpolitics

well uh JD Vance I think was in Pennsylvania as well today in Philadelphia um Tom are they smart to be sort of focused right now on that state is that really the key swing state at this moment it is although I think the polling shows that a lot of these other states that were kind of off the board when Biden was the nominee are back in play uh with Harris and I'm thinking specifically of Arizona and Georgia Nevada um Trump still leads in Nevada by one point but I mean listen this race to me this race is back to 2016 I mean You' got K Harris leading by point and a half in the National polls but if you take if you look at those big seven Battleground States uh the biggest lead of all of them KLA Harris is two points in Michigan one point in Wisconsin everything else is less than a point right um I think Trump has a 1.2 lead in Nevada but um you know four four of the seven states or three of the seven states are one10 of a percent 210 of a percent um really really really close and so um Pennsylvania is obviously important 19 electoral votes I mean if you look at the map and the the swing States it's the biggest you know Georgia's 16 Arizona's 11 so if you can win uh Pennsylvania if you don't win Pennsylvania you have to win two states to replace Pennsylvania the biggest Sur priz yeah that's why it's so important um so I think it is a huge a hugely important state and I think whoever wins Pennsylvania is going to win this election and Carl you know you always trying to get us to expand the map Beyond these same uh swing states that we you talking about do you see anything there uh she's doing better in Florida and in Texas from what I understand you see Tom's chling but I I don't I wanted to expand the map when Joe Biden was the candidate right um the qu I mean Will kamla Harris carry Virginia I would assume so Minnesota is now out of play as far as I'm New Hampshire prob New Hampshire out of play I wouldn't I don't know about New Hampshire but it's only three like votes but I thought I thought M I thought Minnesota was in play before I certainly don't think it is now and the selection of Tim Walls probably SED that so I I I'm almost back to seven I hate to say that because in a country this big you're not a Florida believer you that Florida's in play yeah it it might be um I you know I I I'm a I like to expand the map I like to cover the whole country I I wish California was in play I grew up there and it used to be a swing state I guess it isn't anymore no Hawaii may be a swing state and I am willing to go there for several months to provide on the ground make the sacrifices necessary well you're listening to Real Clear Politics on SiriusXM I'm Andrew Walworth we're going to take a quick break and we'll be right back

Share your thoughts

Related Transcripts

RealClearPolitics: Will Democratic Convention Protests Live Up to Hype?

Category: News & Politics

Welcome back to real clear politics on siriusxm i'm andrew walworth and we're coming to you live from the democratic national convention in chicago i've got tom bevon with me i've got carl cannon with me and joining us for this segment is alex mckenzie walworth happens to be my wife chicago native and... Read more

More than one quarter of American voters identify as independent.

Category: News & Politics

Welcome to the real clerk quick take according to exito data over the last 11 presidential cycles independence have comprised nearly 27% of the electorate during that 44e span only two candidates have managed to win the white house while losing the independent vote one of those candidates was george... Read more

In 2016-2020, pollsters underestimated Donald Trump's support in several key battleground states.

Category: News & Politics

Will polls underestimate donald trump again welcome to the real cler quick take in 2016 and again in 2020 national and state polls consistently underestimated trump support this was especially true in wisconsin in 2016 polls underrated trump's finish in wisconsin by whopping 7.2% four years later pollers... Read more

In the past few decades, no state has been as closely divided as the Badger State.

Category: News & Politics

No state has been more closely divided over the last two decades than the badger state in 2000 george w bush lost the state to al gore by 578 votes and again did john ky in 2004 by 11,384 votes in 2016 trump won a shocking victory in wisconsin by just 22748 votes only to lose the state to joe biden... Read more

It's been a tough month for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. in the RCP National Average

Category: News & Politics

There's trump and there's harris but how's the other guy doing welcome to the real clerk quick it's been 10 months since robert f kennedy jr left the democratic party to run for president as an independent since then he slid from 16.7% to under 5% in the rcp national average taking a particularly large... Read more

Sean Trende: Polls Come With Error Margins and Response Bias, Let the Data Speak for Itself

Category: News & Politics

Intro but sean you wrote about a there's a debate that's going on there was actually a fight a bit of a fight between writer at the washington post and uh jesse waters of fox news talk a little bit about this and what what is the debate about what's the fight about the washington post vs jesse waters... Read more

'The Five': Are polls underestimating Trump and his support?

Category: News & Politics

♪ ♪ >> judge jeanine: fox news alert, former president from just took the stage in arizona at his first rally since the debate. we are keeping an eye on that. in the meantime come underestimate trump at your own peril. the liberal media seems to be forgetting the lessons of 2016. after fawning over... Read more

New poll shows Harris leading Trump by 5 points post-debate

Category: News & Politics

Of the secretary. >>> just 53 days away from the election and following the first debate, new polling shows that harris has widened her lead. the new reuters poll found that the vp is up by five points with harris at 47% against trump's 42%. the same polling last month showed harris with... Read more

These key states have become 'toss-ups,' Fox News polling shows

Category: News & Politics

Peter doocy, thank you so much. bill, i turn it over to you. >> bill: show you power rankings about to be revealed for the first time. there are changes. we believe right now that north carolina and georgia have had a shift. they've had some movement. i want to direct your attention down to the... Read more

Fox Host Jesse Watters STOPS THE SHOW CALLING SECURITY After HEATED EXCHANGE With Jessica Tarlov

Category: Entertainment

[music] what happening gang it's your boy retro back again with another reaction video yeah yeah so we got another huge update i know you guys could probably already tell it is going down just by that title on they were saying what looks to be like fox news the five host jessica tlo's last day on the... Read more

Harris widens lead against Trump in new poll following the debate

Category: News & Politics

Nate Silver explains how Harris could beat Trump

Category: News & Politics

We have harris just ahead in the polls right now because after the convention the party is usually on a little bit of a sugar high we have that more like 50/50 for election day so yeah harris would love to the if we could have a snap election in the us harris would call one right now right she has momentum... Read more