The Mountaineers don't have enough to beat the Nittany Lions | Penn State vs. West Virginia 2024

sure Penn State has question marks going into the season but so does West Virginia more so than Penn State and that's why I think the nitty Lions still have the bigger advantage over the Mountaineers you are locked on nit Lions your daily podcast on the Penn State nit Lions part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day two days away just two days away from from Penn State versus West Virginia and that's why we are having a locked on crossover episode I'm Zach Seiko of locked on nitty lions and he's Mountaineer Paul but now Mountaineer Paul of lockon West Virginia so this is the first formal introduction of mountaineer Paul part of the locked on podcast Network today's episode is brought to you by 5H Hour Energy 5H Hour Energy fixes tired fast with zero sugar and a convenient portable size it's the perfect pickme up for getting stuff done go to 5our .c use promo code locked on CFB to receive 20% off your order this offer is only valid until September 30th on one order and cannot be used with other promotions go to 5our energy.com today well we're going to get into all of it the biggest story lines keys to Victory and predictions in this episode as well Paul I'll I'll start it off with this just kind of the one one of the things that's been going back and forth between not only West Virginia and Penn State but just college football analysts and General is that 53% completion percentage from your starting quarterback West Virginia starting quarterback Garrett green completes 53% of his passes that's not exactly ideal but what's your take on it well it's it's not too far a cry from the 59% that Drew Aller completed as well but I I'll say that you know Garett green led the country in average yards per attempt at over 15 part of the offense was to Chuck it deep it was run the ball Chuck it deep that'd be nice for Penn State to do right just by volume of measure you're GNA complete a little bit less that's not to say he didn't have things he needed to clean up he's a baseball kid May he's a grown man you know but uh a lot of that footwork needed to be really really worked and honed on over an off season and this was really his first full go at that and we've been told all Camp long that it's it's it's a lot better they feel like he can climb probably seven eight maybe nine 10 completion percentage um which would be wild if he does that it's it's hard to say what kind of year he could have because we already know what the legs bring no I completely understand that and I addressed it myself in my individual preview of both teams West Virginia does have that at least they swing for the fences anyway I don't know if they hit a home run every single time I mean that's clear by almost completing less than 50% of your passes but I thought this was the interesting part of it so yes Garrick green uh only complete completed 53% from a season ago but part of that if you look at pro football focus's analytics he had the second worst accuracy rate among quarterbacks as well so it's a combination of yeah he's swinging for the fences trying to hit home runs is that baseball reference that you mentioned since he played the sport but uh he's also uh he he's missing too many routine passes for a division one big 12 quarterback at that yeah but he also led the country in Big Time throws and Big Time throw percentage so the more difficult throws are the ones that he makes you know and like you said it's the routine ones that he struggles with and he he went into an address that he said it's basically mine slowing down and then realizing you don't have to put 100% of your effort into every single throw and layering that thing in there that's just been a huge adjustment for him literally it's been a four-year process for him to do that I I believe he can do it there are favorable things that he does on tape that says he can it's just that he gets out of whack he gets sped up and out of whack you know especially whenever he's rolling one way or the other so I really do believe when is another year in this offense because they changed it a couple different times bringing Graham Herold in last year or the year before last wasn't a big that was a big deal you know because they were preparing for a JT Daniels Le offense and so Garrett had to unlearn that relearn what they consider a Russ belt type offense that Neil Brown runs which is like an RPO type system as well and so he hasn't really had the same system two years in a row and this will be the first time we all know quarterbacks make big jumps in year two that also grows for Drew Aller as a starter as well so it's a combination of stuff but he throws he throws it deep the best of any quarterback in college football he also LED all of college football in to PFS under two minutes he was the best two more minute quarterback in the country last year by the numbers so I think there are favorable things for him in the game there's no doubt about that he has to clean up some of the accuracy stuff intermediate wise and I think he did that well let's get Penn State side of it right you know this is a crossover episode uh West Virginia I felt like did that against favorable competition Baylor UCF th those kind of teams where they made because they struggled against the likes of an Oklahoma Su Oklahoma Sooner team that that wasn't that good right and I think of Penn State who's coming into this season with early projections for another top 10 defense sure they changed coordinators Manny Diaz is gone he's off to Duke but now Tom Allen uh is kind of a defensive Mastermind himself and it's loaded with Talent Abdul Carter KJ Winston are supposed to be first round picks in next year's draft and deny Dennis Sutton is is also in that conversation as well so I know what West Virginia likes to do but it's not like it's going to be easy not going to be easy but I think it's doable most definitely especially okay how do they do it how do they do it in the trenches I think I think our offensive line can at least still major defensive line I believe against the number one Rush defense from a season ago I do they did it last year they they R if if they had any passing attack that wasn't game one I believe they would have had much better shot in last year's game Garr first game as a starter two of the three starting wide receivers weren't even on the team three weeks later and they had to run the rest of the season with three freshman in the starting lineup so it was a huge adjustment for all of them as an offense you guys caught the earliest variation of this offense I'm not saying we're the best offense in the country I'm saying that there's been a huge world of improvement between then the team you saw against North Carolina and it's just a completely different offense so there's going to be three phases needed to be accounted for even though in the press conference this week they said they're going to run it and try to go deep I I really do believe they've got some other plans especially with a guy like Cole Taylor who just gets overlooked in all this talk it seems like he he and and Warren had basically the same numbers they both had mid mid 40s catches I think Warren had three more touchdowns so but but he's a weapon in the middle of the field he's six foot seven and I think both of these guys are gonna have something to say about this game but Garrett and he their roommates they've traveled all over the country working out this year I really think they've learned to trust each other a little bit more as he came in from LSU last year I think that's going to be a big jump for him as well the other wide receivers in the room have made a ton of progress too so I think you know just everybody's on a better path in Paige this year and I think you know like we say all the time big jump from year one to year two don't know how big of a jump it's going to be but we're projecting it to be pretty big so we're banking on it let's say that an immovable object versus an Unstoppable force in in this case again Penn State's run defense allowed 2.2 yards per carry which was number one in the country a season ago and they return all of the interior of that defensive line they move Abdul Carter down to defensive end deny Dennis Sutton is back with another year of experience under his belt D delca Kobe King right so the the core of what made that run defense really good a season ago is going up against a West Virginia team that has not one not two but three returning rushers including Garrett green that had over 750 yards so we'll talk about that more in the upcoming segment again biggest story lines for Penn State vers West Virginia and then later on our predictions our score predictions and how they will get to that final result specifically coming up later on in the show this is a locked on crossover between locked on nitty lions and locked on West Virginia today's episode is brought to you by 5H Hour Energy are you 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today so Paul I'll throw it over to you to start for the second segment what do you got for me what does West Virginia see as the weaknesses of Penn State where they can where they can actually pull off the upset where they feel really good about its matchup against the nitty Lions well you know for me what I've dug into is a couple different key areas I think P state has questions in obviously the right tackle battle still rages on unless they've named something in the last 24 to 48 Hour start they'll Coast start and so that's that's not exactly something you're going to be 100% confident in coming into a brand new season brand new game with a brand new offensive coordinator you lose three offensive linemen to the NFL which is kudos to Penn State you had three guys go to the league Wormley returns at Center other than that it's kind of a a lot of guys with a lot of experience but it's still being put together I don't think that's going to be 100% to start this season maybe it eventually gets there uh you know obviously everybody knows about the back field of Allen and Singleton curious how that's going to look I think if West Virginia can hold him to under 150 yards rushing like they did last year and that same you know I really feel like that's pretty good Drew Aller carried the team last year West Virginia played decently as a run defense against you all last year I was really happy about that so wide receivers where's the skill talent I said that in this my game the other day Trey Wallace been of injured Julian Fleming was supposed to be the Savior even though he's only got what 70 80 catches Over a four-year career That was supposed to be the number two guy for you guys a kid that's basically a freshman right Amari Evans pushed him all Camp along for one of those two or second or third spots I think that's your biggest area of question most Penn State fans have also agreed with that so if West Virginia is going to pull it off it's going to be the experienced corners of West Virginia although new to West Virginia very good singularly where they were at before combined with a very experienced backend with Aubry Burks who's somebody that most consider a top two or three safety in the Big 12 along with Anthony Wilson who had almost 100 tackles last year I think that combination back there is going to stabilize the back end of the defense and if those Corners can really do what they did at their previous spots and you know Hollis and him running his mouth we didn't like it but he did he's projected as a mid- round draft pick so if he can live up to that I think we've got a chance on the back end and if to run into that defense can do what they did last year like I said what what most consider to be a lesser offensive line for Penn State this year at least without I think so I agree on Penn State's offensive line is unproven the wide receivers I don't need I don't think they need to be this Elite group of talent for Penn State's offense to move up and down the field because you have Drew all as a five-star quarterback a former five star you have Nicholas Singleton who was a former five star KRON Allen who was a high-end fourstar so you have other ways to move the football Tyler Warren as you mentioned earlier in our show so I I see where West Virginia is like hey this is how we can attack Penn State or this is how we can you know create mismatches if you will but it's not like West Virginia's defense is Elite or all world class in its own right I get it they got some reinforcements in the secondary because West Virginia had uh a lot of gaps in that defense that were easily exploited and th those players Hollis and another teammate came over from Northwestern Penn State put up 40 plus points against Northwestern a season ago so it's not like they they came from a team that uh gave Penn State a little bit of competition but when I look at this front seven okay offensive Line's an issue for Penn State wide receivers uh we held Singleton and Allen West Virginia held Singleton and Allen a year ago in check okay so you sold so West Virginia sold out for the run right well then that allowed Drew Aller to throw for 325 yards eight in completions on 29 attempts three touchdowns no interceptions and they got one sack against him West Virginia's front seven is not good the defensive line was one of the worst in terms of pass rush they were bottom 20 a season ago per Pro Football Focus per PFF and then when I look at guys like Lee Koba who were absolutely phenomenal for that West Virginia Defense a season ago I think koba's extremely underrated I hope he makes it you know makes it in in the NFL I thought he was really good and had the best individual performance from from West Virginia last season he is not back beanie Bishop same conversation the two most elite Defenders that carried West Virginia's defense and at least gave it a semblance of a defense a season ago are not back you don't just casually replace that in week one so yes Singleton and Allen were held in check a season ago but now you don't have the guy that had the best performance to stop that ground game and is you really and and again Singleton and Allen are are better they're back with more experience against the front seven that I'm just not convinced has it alt together for West Virginia and again you lose your two star players that carried the defense a year ago yeah I think that's a bit overblown uh the front seven for West Virginia LED for Beanie Bishop who had four interceptions and 20 pass deflections that's that's he led the nation like that's you were talking front seven I was just addressing okay fair fair okay um but um you know they led the Big 12 in sacks last year I don't know what PFF number exactly you're referencing I I have no doubt in your what you researched or anything but West Virginia led the Big 12 and sacks last year and tackles for loss that didn't show against pen State you're correct they had to figure a lot of things out going through the season Tyron Bradley eventually stepped into a role at one of those Bandit spots and became a real bright spot and then we bring you know he's back we're excited about him fora Mula is going to be really good in the middle of that defense as a run stopper we feel former pen State guy that's a former pen State guy absolutely absolutely yeah and and obviously not the style of defensive tackle you guys have had there in the past but he he's a he's more of your physical run stopper type guy and then you know they they go three deep at every position on the defensive line so um I don't know if they're four star and five star talents like Penn State has they're more along the de they're more along the lines of a developed three star player uh somebody who spent four years getting their body ready to play Power five football or power four football whatever we call it these days Sean Martin has been an all Big 12 talent in the past and he's back for his fifth year and there's just a lot of old dudes there as far as the linebacking room goes it has the most talent that we've ever had in that room and that's almost in West Virginia history it's very unproven very very unproven we talked about this before Josiah troter one of the most after linebackers in in the state of Pennsylvania obviously the BR the brother the former Clemson linebacker and his dad was Jeremiah troter and he grew up eat breathing and sleeping linebacker he was gonna start as a true freshman last year unfortunately that didn't work out and he got injured and he starting this year Trey lean really broke out last year uh in the first four games and and some against Penn State had some Flash plays he got hurt and then Reed carero comes over from Ohio State and we really feel good about him in the middle of the def defense or at one of the other linebacker spots either way it goes but they have changed the defense as well that's probably worth mentioning they're going to a three down front they were more of a a 425 with it kind of flipped in and out of a 335 and a 425 so that's going to be interesting that they're just kind of going two three Downs it's going to be fun I think they're going to play a lot of press man coverage this year as to where they were a Zone team last year because that's what Beanie could do well they really kind of build it around his talents as they figured out oh this guy's pretty pretty good and now they're going to be a little bit different so I think that's going to be a big deal I I'll go back to the the point about you know the front seven it Lee Lee kobot linebacker you you can't he almost had 100 tackles so I I mentioned beanie Bishop but I didn't mean to cut you off too Lee hoba and that same thing okay in that front seven he he led the team in tackles by a mile at 90 at 97 that's just not easy to replace and then in that same breath beanie Bishop who was able to at least he did everything for the secondary everything 20 pass deflections was number one in the nation kudos to him four interceptions was second in the nation and that kind of star power I don't see that I I I agree that everybody's going to naturally improve but I don't see that star power with West Virginia's defense although I I do see Star players on penates offense that could you know get the better get the upper hand with that Tyler Warren Singleton Allen Singleton and Allen aren't just going to be you know okay we'll run them straight into the pile it's a cloud of dust they might get four or five yards that's what West Virginia more or less likes to do with CJ Donaldson but these guys are going to be involved in the passing game as well Singleton and Allen even though Penn State's wide receivers have question marks so what are they going to do to help with that get the running backs involved in the passing game too split them out at wide receiver because good luck as as a linebacker covering Nicholas Singleton in the open field yeah I just don't see why that in works more last year for him you know I think coordinator Mike yuch that's why you fire Mike yuch in week nine week 10 yeah that's a fair point I I think that is a fair point and and just on the same token you know you have to consider that you guys have brand new coordinators at not two but three positions correct you also want special teams as well so sweeping sweeping across the board changes the best time to get a team with sweeping across the board changes is in week one that's to our favor I do think that the West Virginia Atmos will affect Drew Aller it did in Illinois and other places on the road last year he was definitely rattled at times if the pass rush can get home in this game just a couple times I think it could play huge huge huge dividends in this game obviously that goes in every game uh but you know it's G to be interesting I I really do think West Virginia has F actually I think it's a better overall defense than it was last year because they were really not good they were top 60 last year it's like you know that's just that probably Falls along the lives with just below average right so obviously wasn't good enough had it been a top 30 defense then that team's in the Big 12 championship game no doubt about it they were barely two losses away from 11 wins you know you lose the game in the fourth quarter against theok Oklahoma State and and then you lose on a hell Mary to Houston and was the Dana hogerson Bowl basically because there was a ton of emotion in that game and it was similar to a rivalry game actually so they were in that but Garrett green and both of those games scored late touchdowns unfortunately to be undone done but you know we were almost an 11 wi team last year I know day late dollar short but I think that 70% of that production is back 84% of it on the offense it's exciting man we have a reason to be excited in Morgantown even if we lose to Penn State we're still excited about this season we really are and we feel like we have a real chance in this game I really think last year I picked Penn State you know I knew going into that game we weren't ready for that game this year I feel completely well perfect setup for what's to come in the final segment predictions and also that atmosphere that you mentioned the buildup for this game has been something different and you have an excellent point about that Paul we'll discuss all of that next here in our locked on crossover Between the nney Lions and West Virginia coming up next today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel you've heard us talk a lot about FanDuel America's number one sports book but now we have something a a little bit different for you now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet just $5 all it takes is $5 and you'll get a 3- week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV then with the YouTube TV base plan you'll be able to watch every regular season Sunday afternoon out of Market game and all you need is a Google account a current form of payment and you can cancel it any time so there's no obligation just visit fanduel.com lockon to download America's number one sports book and if you look over at FanDuel right now you can see the lines for Penn State versus West Virginia there's been some line movement for the Mountaineers down to an 8 and 1 half spread Penn State's still the favorite but it is an 8 and 1 half spread Penn State isus 285 on the money line West Virginia is plus 230 and the total is set at 515 if you like those lines you can bet them right now over at fanduel.com again that's FanDuel America's number one Sportsbook and today's episode is also brought to you by fact meals factor is great because it's no prep No Mess type of meals that allow you to meet your Wellness goals thanks to the menu of Chef crafted meals with options like calorie smart Protein Plus and keto you get fresh never frozen meals that are dietician approved and ready to eat in Just 2 minutes so no matter how busy you are you'll always have time to enjoy nutritious great tasting meals from factor and Factor has such a great variety 35 different meals to choose from 60 add-ons as well so you always have new flavors to explore keep the kitchen time to a minimum Factor meals are ready in Just 2 minutes so there's no shopping prepping cooking or cleaning up head over to factor meals.com lockon College 50 and use code locked on College 50 to get 50% off your first box plus 20% off your next month that's code locked on50 at factor meals.com loock on50 to get 50% off your first box plus 20% off your next month with an active subscription let's wrap it up by beginning with our predictions kind of going into our final main points of why we think Penn State or West Virginia can win this game and Paul I'll I'll start it off here I think Penn State wins I do think West Virginia covers early on that 10 and a half points at home I don't disagree that West Virginia is not an improved team return the the offense but again the defense isn't going to be fixed when you have to replace those cornerstones of the defense that again was really lackluster but those two guys carried them forward and they're not there anymore Penn State same thing work in progress but I feel like with the talent that you have returning you can overcome some of that at least in the beginning so those two things meet because I will give you that I think there's going to absolutely be timing issues communication issues with codal Nikki's offense and Allen's defense but it's not going to lead to an upset in my mind long story short I think Penn State wins 31 to 24 I think this total goes over and I do think West Virginia still covers the current spread of eight and a half interesting yeah I I do think that it's gonna be a close game I mean it was a close game even last year through three quarters it was 147 game 14-7 game in the third quarter a lot of people look at the end score and think it was a blowout I don't necessarily think blowout clearly Penn State was better I think that's that can't argued um but you know it's going to go into the fourth quarter and then maybe somebody pulls away I think that's somebody's West Virginia in this game I think I think Drew valer is gonna make an early game mistake in a new offense which is probably a little bit of a hot take because he didn't do that much last year he did not whether that's whether that's strap sack strip fumble or an interception or just some Miss throws I think that this this this is going to get to him from an atmosphere standpoint even though you guys play in a much tougher atmosphere it's different when you're at home and West Virginia is the top 15 environment so I really feel like it's gonna make a difference in this game and I've got West Virginia winning 33 to3 on a walkoff well it is GNA take it is going to take points I just I just can't see against a top 10 caliber defense once again West Virginia again it's when I look at last year's schedule doing that against Cincinnati UCF West Virginia didn't exactly face this Gauntlet of elite that's not what everybody said in the beginning of the year when looking at the schedule before the year started much like this year it was TCU who had played the national championship game and you know there was a lot of stuff like you look at before the season it's not the same after and so I don't know that that plays as big of a part this year as last year but we'll see I mean it's a great point about who we beat and how we did it but that's the part of growth you know I I really think this team has grown yep and the same argument can be made for for p Drew Aller is a seconde starter he's played those Road games when he was a first year starter that's a little different you know lights being a little bit too too bright when you're out in the state of Ohio where you're from against the Ohio State Buck guys who drew Aller probably when he was a kid probably dreamed of playing for that's a completely different conversation but my point being is that he's had that experience now so Morgantown will be a rowy environment but not something that Drew Aller has not seen to this point if this was if Drew Aller if this was a year ago Drew all's first road game was West Virginia absolutely view that as as a negative for Penn State but he does have the he does have those road trips under his belt now so you have uh West Virginia 33 to3 I have Penn State 31 to 24 again I think there are points in this game just because of all the things that we rattled off but Paul let's finish up with that with that environment and this back and forth this discourse that Penn State fans and West Virginia fans have had online I I've been entertained it you know I can only get involved so much because again podcast host here not not just a not just a regular casual or a Die Hard fan in this case and I think you've had the same respect for that as well just to kind of observe all of it but I think you make an excellent point is that and you have a little bit of a hot take here that Penn State has offered more juice in this you whatever if you think it's a rivalry or not this matchup specifically there has been more juice there's been more adrenaline in this game alone than West Virginia and pit have had for the past few years decade plus absolutely it it's really Pat McAfee is amped up a lot I feel like just the addition of him and their crew coming to town is amped up her street was on that show yesterday I don't know if you caught the comments he was out loud saying you know West Virginia the Big 12 is just weird you know the way this game is being built up it's obvious that Regional rivalries matter to people on both sides I think a lot of pen State fans where they want to admit it or not because everybody wants to be the cool kid not acknowledge the little brother I get that but it's just not true both fans of ban bases have been not just involved but extremely involved in the buildup to this game I've been involved in almost every second of it you've got West Virginia players on both sides unhappy you know Eddie B in a press conference saying we didn't like that they scored with six seconds to go you've got Garnett holl saying I really want to beat these guys we're going to beat these guys like there's bulletin board material for Penn State which is probably an argument you could have had but um for me also KO is handing out rally towels there's going to be a jet flyover West Virginia installed brand new lights in the lighting system this was before they realized it was going to be a noon game yeah they were anticipating this to be like you know how South Carolina or Oklahoma looks when they score the the lights go on and off like that's what they installed you know so they were really trying to do a big atmosphere for this uh and and I really it's just been one heck of a build have have you ever seen just for an out- of conference game for Penn State H have a build similar to this it makes me want to include West Virginia in in the scheduling a little more often or just these kind these kinds of games whether that's a Syracuse whether that is a pit but at the end of the day when you have these expanding conferences you can't just you don't have to anymore you're going to play n or 10 games that now boost your resume and you have a 12 te playoff which is probably going to expand even further to 16 hey division 2 division three FCS I'll do 24 so what what's the hold up I dig I digress from that but Penn State and West Virginia it's going to be a while these contract negotiations for these uh these home and home games are decided years in advance Penn State's got Syracuse at some point Temple up next right all the they basically do a rotation can't just fit but that's where college football has moved away from it's gone from the it's gone from that Regional Penn State West Virginia pit Syracuse Maryland right all the all the classics to you know now hey Penn State's going to play USC Penn State's going to play UCLA Washington West Virginia is going to play you you know at some point maybe they play Utah in the Big 12 Conference Championship but it's all these different teams that you never would have thought of happened and that's the commercialization of of College athletics as it is so some people I I think think it offers more value here because Penn State was just looking forward to Michigan and Ohio state that that was their SE because the season the results of the Season were dictated by those two games and that's what so Hollis isn't wrong when he says something like that oh Penn State only cares about two select opponents well yeah because Northwestern didn't decide the game Penn State was better they knew they were better and it didn't affect the outcome of the season a win or a loss against Michigan or Ohio State dictated the outcome here so that's just kind of where we are uh in college football one quick last point on that so we've been playing in the Big 12 for 10 years now and I really feel like we have a good feel for it hasn't been good for the flying WB brand you look at where West Virginia was in 2010 coming off of three BCS Bowl wins the one game away from a national championship appearance they were Clemson they were in that driver seat to be a Clemson and then conference realignment happens you remove all your Regional rivalries and now you're playing Texas Tech and Baylor nobody cared you know and and we can't travel that far to an all to an away game so wait so the commercialization of this sure it might bring a few extra dollars but it sure as heck isn't good for the fan bases I can speak for from experience on that man I think those are all excellent points about where college football is trending to and if you look at the individual brand like a West Virginia or a Penn State uh it affects everybody differently but it's only it is depending on how you look at it it's only going to get worse before it gets better it's just right it's going to continue to be nationalized and expanded it's not going to stop here so we will see some bigger changes coming the next five potentially 10 years down the road as well an interesting an intriguing locked on crossover that's now going to finally all the anticipations leading up to Penn State vers West Virginia the kickoff is at noon eastern time from Morgantown it'll be an exciting one can West Virginia you know get a head start on its season can Penn State kind of keep the pace with where they want to go with college football playoff aspirations we're going to have all the reactions here on on our respective channels Paul I want to thank you for the time for for doing this crossover episode and again welcome you to the network welcome to the lockon podcast Network it is great to have you as the host of lockon West Virginia thanks Zach it's great to be here man and thank you for making lockon nney lions in lockon West Virginia your first listen and watch every single day for your second listen you got to check out locked on college football hosted by Spencer mlin Spencer talks about everything college football related now previewing games recapping them analyzing the news no more offseason talk college football is back talking about actual games and Spencer has it all covered for you over on the lockon college football podcast available on YouTube and wherever you get your podcast part of the lockdown podcast Network your team every day e