Fantasy Baseball Show: Holy Bow-den Francis, Kumar Rocker Debuts

[Music] welcome in newest edition of caught stealing the fantasy alarm Fantasy Baseball podcast I'm your host kobby Conway at Kobe R Conway over on X and with me here as always Matt SS at the salesman Matt we're continuing to wind down here in the season and full show today we got some injury news and notes just to kind of touch on we have a a pretty notable Prospect making their debut um tonight as we're recording this on a Thursday so he's making his debut and then we'll talk about a kind of breakout sensation here in the last couple of weeks here in Al starter but before we get into all that juicy good stuff how are you my friend uh I'm I'm doing all right it's you know setting up to be a wild I guess what two and a half game two and a half weeks left of the regular season um the NL Wild Card is basically down to four teams it feels like with three of them likely to make it and one of them is going to be awfully close and miss out um the AL East is a tip fortat battle here um so yeah and we've got the white sock ever growing pursuit of the worst record in the history of baseball um so yeah we've we've got all sorts of stuff to watch we have history watch with the sh Otani going for history we also have the Chicago White Sox going for history on arguably the complete other end of the spectrum complete stardom the complete disaster yeah is that the word to use I don't even know what word you want to call it but I'm glad you mention disaster what unmitigated disaster yeah that's pretty good as long as disaster or catastrophe or chaos chaos could be arguably at what's going on there in Chicago but I'm glad you mentioned the NL Wild Card down to a couple of teams here right now you got the Diamondbacks Padres and Mets H holding the three spots in the wild card as we're recording this Braves one game back and then you got the Cubs at five games back but kind of like you said four horse race there one of those teams with the Mets eight- two in their last 10 as they're recording this they've been doing it pretty much without kodai senga for most of the year do you think there's any possibility that the Mets kind of say even two or so Innings of SGA in games is worth trying to get him back from the calf issue that's he's been dealing with for the last little bit do you think SGA pitches at all in 2024 I guess it's a way of wording that I think we're at the point where they have to consider it yeah right because all you need is a ticket to the show who knows what happens right watch what happened with the with the Diamond Backs last year um with the Rangers last year both of them were wild card teams um and made it um you know obviously both of them were were hot during the season kind of cooled down a little late the Mets are playing with house money at this point nobody expected them to be in this position you can make the argument that had the brav stayed healthy there's no way they're in this position right because the Braves are fighting with them but they're down aunia and albz and Strider and now Austin Riley everybody then they missed Michael Harris for like half a and um yeah then Jorge Solair got there and then got injured and slowed down and whatnot so I you know um so I think they do I think you gotta try you know I not starting him I wouldn't put that on him but yeah if you can bring him in for maybe two innings every third night or something and help the rest of your pen out I I think you've got to try and then just deal with stuff like it's not like it's an elbow or a shoulder it's a calf thing right so that's not as serious to me as an El like if it was an elbow or a shoulder I would say probably not just see where this goes and then have them fully healthy for next year to make a run at stuff but considering it's a soft soft muscle issue I would I would try and get them out there and see what happens because if you get into the playoffs who knows maybe you catch a team napping on you because you know you weren't expected to be there and then you make it I I don't know not saying they are a World Series team don't misconstrue this especially Justin Freeland our buddy who's a major Mets fan but if they get in anything can happen we saw that last year and that's exactly it to to win it you got to be in it that's what it comes down to and honestly when it comes down to this too the Mets can try to ramp him up to get back in a reliever role because I'm not mistaken he can return on September 25th that's when his 60-day is up September 25th that day the bra or the the Braves they play the Braves on the 25th the Mets only have five regular season games left at that point when he is eligible to return if he's healthy enough they should have a good idea of do they need to do they want to or if they're out of it there's literally no point just gear up for 2025 and let SGA be ready for 180 plus Innings next year right that's the and I think there's also you have to be on the 40 man roster by certain cut off and obviously if he's on the 60-day I he's not on the 40 man roster um so we'll we'll see what they do but it's certainly going to be interesting to see if anybody's gonna get like five innings out of them this season and the other thing too is they're on the cusp right now but a lot can change because they end their they end the year with three game set with Philly three with Washington three more with Philly three with Atlanta three with Milwaukee going into that date of the 25th they could know like well we really we really screwed the pooch on this one and yeah I mean aside from the aside from the gats that's not the easiest schedule and the Nats I always play the Mets heart because it's a divisional rivalry game so um we we'll see it could be pretty interesting trying to pull this up quickly I'm curious how the Mets are um this year against the Nationals I know that the Braves lost the season series to the Nets split verse opponent oh okay never mind Mets are eight and2 against Washington this year sorry pretty good against sorry Matt it's all right at least they don't have to face Pittsburgh down the stretch too we had a decade straight of beating them so I'm pretty fine hey you take it banners fly forever so you have that another one here uh James Grande had a really good tweet or sorry post not tweets anymore gotta be better got to be better he had a really good twe so a Twitter I just did it again I did it again son of a gun okay let me start over James Grande good friend here at Fantasy alarm who also also pitches in on the podcast as our pinch hitter here had a good post basically saying that he was so happy that Bowen Francis has just realized now that he's just an elite pitcher in Major League Baseball where this has come from I I don't know if there was writing on the wall and it was underlying metrics that were there but we have a guy Matt who prior to this year had made 21 appearances no professional starts and he was good across 30 or across 37 Innings of work he's now coming into this year made 11 starts he's gone eight in four a 35 erra and uh K per nine just under eight but in his last four starts he's carried a no hitter into the ninth twice the most recent one he only had one strike out against Mets which kind of limited the still a good fantasy outing but it kind of diminished the ceiling but last four starts sure he's gotten the angels in there and then he got the Mets but 29 Innings he's got A5 er a 0.0076 babip against and he's two- one with a 24 to4 strikeout to walk ratio across 29 Innings all I have to say is where did this come from what is happened who is this guy that's the next question um well he appears to be Bowen Francis that's what he goes by at least is this Sai Young reincarnated he appears to be a 28-year-old unheralded pitcher from a farm system that is used to producing heralded guys that don't usually work out I mean Kevin bigo's on his fourth team this year [Music] um I I don't know sometimes things just click for a little bit for pitchers and I think that's what we're seeing with bow and Francis uh if you're looking at rankings for like if you're starting draft prep and you're going palen Francis is really turning into no please stop um it's a good four game stretch it's been excellent he's nearly pulled off two no hitters in four games um but you know I I think it's there was nothing in the track record to suggest this correct is he mixing his pitches a little bit better maybe I don't know in in last night's in Wednesday night's start which again carried a no no through uh eight Innings the pitchcar broke at one point and Bowen Francis used his glove and shook it three times to indicate the pitch threw it dead middle and the batter didn't swing y That's the kind of role that Francis is on right now and I don't think there's any there there's there's no analytics or saber metrics or whatever you want to call it that's going to tell you it's just this guy's time right now I mean and if you really want to look at I mean I'm looking at baseball Savant and it looks like he's added a splitter in this year which if you watch the games it seems like he throws it quite a lot and the results have been good with it with a 169 batting average against and a 24% whiff rate I mean really his biggest Crypt tonight is the first batter in the ninth inning that just seems to be his uh you know we talk about Pitch can't get through the lineup the third time Francis is fine it's just that first batter in the ninth inning basically here's what I'm saying and I say this in a little bit of justest if you're watching a Blue Jays game get and bow well no I'm I'm doing this from my angle selfishly Bowen Francis is pitching he's got his probably third no hitter in five starts going into the ninth inning in the middle of that eighth inning whomever is up first in the ninth inning you sprinkle a little dough on a that batter to hit a home run in that at bat because that's that's his scriptonite that's the only thing castanos and it's and there's a national tragedy happening live bet the Home Run odd immediately oh my gosh I mean that's it hit yesterday first batter in the ninth inning against bow and Francis just take the odds on the Home Run whomever it is whatever it is do it actually I will say he did only have one strikeout against the Mets he did he had 12 in his last no no bid um but yeah I think this just a hot streak for for him and I I think you're right because when you look at least in even in this run like I hate to be a pessimist because I'm you know I'm all four guys breaking out late but since let's just let's move away from just the last four we'll go back to his last seven starts he's got a 1 erra which is awesome but you look the fips at a 345 the babip is at a 093 that's going to even now at some point yeah law of large numbers suggests that that's not sustainable yeah and even this year I mean for overall for the year 350 ER but the FIP is nearly 45 and the xfip is up above four to his credit he does not hurt himself with walks I will give him that he does pump the strike zone and he doesn't walk batters so he does avoid a lot of a lot of kind of self mitigated damage or self-caused damage Sierra is still 389 because he's not walking a ton of guys yeah and over his last 48 Innings I mean he's got a 46 to5 strikeout to walk ratio I mean he's not hurting himself now it is interesting because like in that Mets game when you look at it like if I go over to his his uh PL discipline in that like Mets game I mean even so like 84% contact rates a little high but he seems like he's the type of guy even at his best as we're seeing here he wants to be a Pitch to contact guy and work deeper into games that 12 strikeout performance is not something we're going to see often correct like he's going to settle in 5 six seven right around a strikeout an inning but he is content with just pumping the strike zone with fast balls throwing that splitter getting ground balls and getting out of innings that's exactly to give you an idea the 46 strikeouts in last four starts he has 118 total strikeouts in his MLB career including the stretch he's now on so like you know we're talking about a guy who's accounted for um sorry not his last the 46 isn't his last four starts but still the the uptick in strikeouts accounts for a third of his more than a third of his MLB total over a smattering of Two and a Half Seasons mhm that that should tell you he's it's nothing but I mean it's a great hot streak and R him while he's hot but as soon as he starts to cool down don't need him yep and you can you can be a functional fantasy asset without a ton of strikeouts correct and Fran Francis is key to fantasy's I I don't want to say stardom but path to Fantasy viability is hang out around a strikeout per inning you can be around 8K per nine you don't walk batters help your whip work yourself into six seven inning games and be that person that basically when you go out there it's like oh Bow and Francis on the mound what am I getting I'm going to get six to seven Innings five or six hits one two or three earned runs four to six strikeouts just like clockwork just be that every single time you go out there and continue to develop the splitter make that your next pitch and then you can really ride that because if he's going to at least do that to generate a ton of ground balls I don't care if he's going to allow a lot of contact because you don't get hurt as much on the ground as you do through the air right hly you can make efficient starts which gets you deeper into games and then your Innings help keep ratios down so yeah I mean he's at his best he's nothing but an sp5 for Fantasy maybe an sp4 if the strikeouts but like please do not go into next year and go oh well this guy really got hot down the stretch against some teams whose offense has been I mean aside from the Phillies whose offense has been questionable for most of the season like even the Mets like they're charging yeah but if you look at the war on that team there's one guy carrying that entire roster Francisco Lindor has like five higher War yep than anybody else on that roster so please don't go drafting Bowen Francis as like an SP2 because he was really hot for five games not enjoy the production now going into 2025 we'll Rec calibrate in Temper expectations but another not as quite as well he's not as old as bow and Francis but we do have a notable Prospect at least by name and name and pedigree real quick speaking of I know we're gonna talk about this team but uh deo's coming back deg Gro and Sherer are both expected to return this weekend yep got that yep for other injury news and notes good nice segue there Matt head over to Fantasy alarm check out the fantasy baseball injury report I documented deg Gro and sherzer and I think it was a week or two ago I mentioned that deg Grom was probably pacing for about a mid-september return and that's pretty much where we're going to be at there so yep Texas will be getting two studs back and honestly to if they're still out there take a shot on them I mean they're not going to make a huge difference at this point but if you are close in categories they could do enough to bump you up at the very least you've made it this far without them what they can do can only help correct so let's stick with Texas another guy coming up here and poor poor teams facing Texas at this point but Kamar rocker going to make his MLB debut tonight as we're recording this on Thursday what are we seeing here with rocker because obviously he's been his name has been floated around in Prospect world for quite some time and then across two levels over his last about 26 and twoth thirds Innings he's just been I have no other way to say it but flat out dominant so what what do we make of rocker at the big league level here and can he stick the rest of the way um I mean he was for all intents and purposes a co-ace on that Vanderbilt staff with another guy who's in the Ranger System Jack lighter um college is obviously quite different than professional baseball we've seen plenty of guys be number one picks and Flounder Mark Appel was dominant in college never never made the majors with two different organizations um Kumar rockers had a bizarre run through the miners and some independent ball and then the Rangers um yeah I mean look I'm excited for his debut I'm not overhyping him just yet um but he has been unbelievable in the upper miners this year he's been practically unhitable striking out everybody and their mother and then when their father comes down to see what he's doing he strikes him out too um do I think he sticks yeah why not Texas isn't totally out of the playoffs yet it's going to take a miracle run for them to make the playoffs but if you're not if your offense isn't clicking which it's not for Texas right now and hasn't been for a bunch of the season and some of your big bats aren't there and aren't clicking and the best way you can win games is by shutting down the opposition so adding Kumar rocker to that rotation and then getting deg Grom and sherzer back um is huge and why wouldn't you keep rocker up and just let him converse with sherzer and deg Grom and learn the craft of pitching like he doesn't have to pitch to learn things right like Mariano Rivera's famous cutter came from a bullpen after talking to to just a handful of guys and he worked it and it cut and he was like okay I'm good and then rode it all the way to Hall of Fame right yeah rocker can learn sequencing he can learn new grips he can learn the art of pitching from De Grom and Scherzer even if he's not pitching so I would leave him up I would see what he can do um if he's available go pick him up why not take a flyer you'll get a couple of starts out of them and if they go well then you get some strikeouts you get decent amount of erra and whip relief yeah I mean going into next year that's where things get a little tricky because I would have liked to have seen more Innings from him um and that's the main concern for next year is what his Innings loads going to be because if you're looking at uh fangraphs and you look at his uh minor league numers they go back to 2023 there's not a stint in there that includes more than 28 Innings pitched at any stop along the way and there's only four so little concerned about just how far they can push him next year um but yeah you know overall I'd pick him up as a flyer for this year and for the Rangers I think when you said that they should keep them up I it makes sense cuz when you look I mean yeah they're eight spots back of a wild card but when you look here they're about to open a three game a four game set with Seattle then they come back with them with three more games after a little stint with the blue jay so like they can make some ground up and now you could potentially have you would have Andrew Heeney corar rocker deg Gro and sherzer yeah you have pretty much the hope of the rotation you thought you were going to start you know what you've been paying for uh for a while now so so and not to mention Nathan e avaldi so you would have your five would be I avaldi Heeney rocker deg Grom sherzer and aside from the blowup start for Cody Bradford he's been okay yeah absolutely and then they end like I said you got seven with Seattle left for the for the 2024 season and then sprinkle in three with the blue jays and off top of your head I'm looking at it so I know but do you know who their final six games of the year are against it's not against the Astros is it three with Oakland and three with the Angels oh so the Bottom Feeders of the if they can make a run in their next 10 games seven of which are against Seattle three or Toronto say seven and three at the very least they take the majority against the Mariners they're going to gain ground they're going to move up and then when it comes to those must-win games they're not playing Houston and Cleveland down the stretch they are playing Oakland and the angels who are about two injuries away from you and I entering their starting lineup yep actually both teams three times in a row for hits yeah like Texas is not out of this there are wor there are far more worse spots to be in but they got to take care of business first Fang graphs gives them a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs right now which probably Fair because I mean don't get me wrong it's an uphill battle they do have to chase down the Mariners who have been I mean if nothing else they've got a stacked rotation who doesn't really allow very I mean mean Logan Gilbert not to go on a tangent but Logan Gilbert has been a pain in my rear end this year because he's got a losing record he has a losing record and has been remarkably good like all year it's unbeliev he has a 315 ER and by the way all of the expected ER FIP and xfip are all within 0.03 runs of that ER so it's dicks right he's been that good his whip is like Bel is below one88 whip the man is 7even and 11 yep he's not even close to 500 he's seven and 11 because he gets zero his last game uh Logan Gilbert pitched eight Innings gave up two hits two earned 10 strikeouts took a loss I mean I mean that's that's where we're at though last the last three games he's gone it at least six Innings given up a grand total of six earned runs a grand total of 10 hits between let's see so the last three games combined he's pitched 20 Innings given up 10 hits given up six earned two total walks with 29 strikeouts MH two no decisions and a loss if you go back Gilbert's last 18 starts 321 ra 2.9 91 FIP and he's got a 4-9 record to show for it wins don't matter for for sa young anymore well that's that's true he's gotten he's he's gotten one win in his last 10 starts he is one and six despite a 358 ra and a 2.23 FIP his last win came on August 10th it is September 12th as we are recording this I I drafted him to be a coas with Zack Wheeler and even though the numbers are great like his innings are great 185 and 23 striking out more than a guy per inning he's not walking very many dudes his erra is great his whip is 088 he's just not bringing wins because that offense can't stop themselves from striking out Y and look at Brian woo last night yeah had to battle his rear end off and go perfect through six Innings just to have a shot at a win well and then just to bring this all back around to Kamar rocker too he's going to open up against the Mariners and that offense runs runs hot and cold and lately it's been cold so like there's a very chance very good chance he can go out there strike out 10 batters in like five innings exactly because they also lead the majors in strikeouts again they sure do and if you go every fifth day wasn't the problem yeah and if you go every fifth day he'll start the 12th against Seattle two three four five one then he gets the Blue Jays two three four five one then he gets Oakland and then one more against La so his four starts down the stretch would be Seattle Toronto Oakland Angels it's not a bad four to go against to end the year so look to add Kamar rocker if he's available uh quick note any other prospects worth watching here down the stretch that could be called up maybe a Jackson job type if he's going to get the callers does Detroit not even bother bringing him up this year maybe I mean Jackson job's gonna start Saturday at Triple A for the Toledo Mud Hens against the Omaha stormchasers I'm going to that to the game on Friday night so I was hoping uh it was announced over the weekend he was coming up and so I was hoping his whole week that the one game I get to go to he would start but no it's the next night which I unfortunately can't go to see but there's a chance that Detroit I mean I know Detroit's basically out of it they've been hot of late um I don't know do they give them do they give him a shot to go with the majors just to make it easier for him to make the opening day roster next year only three games back from the wild card too maybe maybe there's a I mean if he has an absolute let's say he pitches twice in triple they could still get two starts out of him in the majors at this point there's a possibility if he like has schenian typee starts so watch for him because he's the next top pitching Prospect but that's that's about it in terms of difference makers at this point fair enough and let's wrap it up as we always do waiver wire pickup and weekend streamer so we're doubling up this week both got the same one need some help with the stick look at Trey Sweeny 112 WRC plus and getting called up and he's got solid Fly ball numbers uh average exit velocity at 92.6 miles per hour and a 52.1% hard hit rate he can get it going and he's been doing it he's done pretty well overall since he's gotten the call so I mean Trace ween is a guy that we can look at and he's hardly owned especially in ESPN fantasy leagues like most people seem to be um so I would take a look at Trey Sweeney anything else to add on him um no I mean it you need a productive bat at this point in the season to fill some some middle infield gaps go for it yep hitting 242 468 slug four homers two stolen bases across 21 games at the big league level and then we just spent a lot of time talking about Texas so let's do it a little bit more after Seattle has to face Kumar rocker after they face Jacob degram after they face Max Scherzer they get Andrew Heeney on Sunday and heene is owned in just under 20% of ESPN fantasy leagues and over his last four starts he's got a 171 ER and a k per9 above 11 to be fair he has faced the Angels White Soxs and Pirates across three of those starts but Heeney doesn't make the schedule he just goes out there and pitches and he's pitched pretty darn well of late and Seattle like we just spent the seven minutes prior to this talking about that offense strikeout prone and if there's anything Heeney has done well at times is he can rack up strikeouts and bunches so I'm looking to Andrew Heeney on Sunday yeah the ratios may not be good for him anymore but if you're streaming a guy um or playing DFS and strikeouts matter for that Heeney he's in a good spot he strikes out a pretty decent amount of guys and Seattle strikes out a lot on their own I could go out there and probably rack up five six strikeouts and I don't throw above 82 miles an hour um fair so and if Kobe's calling pitches maybe I strike out seven I don't know we'll we'll we'll see um so yeah I would I would stream Heeney because if anything they may just be tired from having to face Kumar rocker and shur are and deg Grom that is a tough Trier to go beforehand but overall for the year Mariners fourth highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers not to mention the League's worst batting average at 208 yes yes even worse than the Chicago White Socks in that department so Andrew on Sunday yeah take a look at him and of course if you become an all pro subscriber over at Fantasy alarm today as you're chasing that title for your fantasy baseball leagues you can access the minds of us analysts here at Fantasy alarm ask your questions right in the Discord get that one-on-one conversation or one to many if you do the if you tag all of us in there so be happy to help you out there make sure you give myself a follow over on X Co R Conway give Matt Sals a follow atth salesman check out all the great content like And subscribe where you are listening and check out all the great content over at Fantasy alarm and we will see you next week with the newest edition of cod stealing [Applause]