Leading Off: LIVE Friday, Aug 30th | Fantasy Baseball (Presented by bet365)

[Music] [Music] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] what's up friends and welcome in to Leading off right here on fantasy pros I am Chris Welsh that is Joe Rico we got you for the last show of August Joe I'm my head is all over the place I just did a tweet and I was like all right hey let's get it last show of September no no no no edit tweet last show of October no no no it's August it's the last show of August is what we're doing here 1,200 revised tweets I can't get my head straight because there's so much going on there's a lot going on in baseball we're going to be talking about all the latest as we usually do we're going to do some prep for next week we're going to talk about some two start pitchers we got our Best Bets of the day and we're going to be looking to answer some of your questions so as always I would tell the chat you guys got some final questions in here do it I'm G to be marking them we're going to hit it here shortly we're going to be answering those for your playoff runs or your run into the playoff Mr Joe Rico what's up buddy it's pretty crazy that August is already done man I know we kind of do this every year it's like I can't believe it's already June I can't believe it's already July but the season is really winding down like there might be some people this is their championship week it's just always crazy how quickly the season goes by in any sport well and you know as we say a lot of the time too I think there's another step at another level that is really interesting for this time of a year even if you're not like heavily involved in playoffs I mean let's be honest probably not consuming Fantasy Baseball if you're eliminated from playoffs but there is this opportunity that's going on right now where you get to to kind of lock into players that a lot of people are just not going to know like we kind of jokingly do it with pisapia because he's off into football land and no baseball but in reality there are players over this last month or six weeks that are going to start to pop and their value is not going to be realized sometimes it does happen but it'll happen like in March or February when everyone really locks in so there's this opportunity in dynasties to get in early if you're going to do you know some really early season nfbc whatever it is you have a chance to lock into some players that people aren't going to quite get into perfect example Lawrence Butler let's talk about Lawrence Butler now Lawrence Butler did have a nice run middle-ish through the year kind of tapered back down but yesterday Lawrence Butler went off he went three for four with three homers and four RBI which is now put him up to in 3 tenant bats almost is at a 2 15 season he has a legit shot to be a 2015 guy he's got 19 homers 12 stolen bases with a 253 batting average and absolutely gorgeous we had more time I probably would have pulled this up for the art just so you can see this beautiful Savant page of theoretical like Top 20th percentile for the most part expected batting average expected slug barrel rate hard hit rate and if you guys have listened to me you know a combination that I love to Chase and monitor is uh double digit Barrel percentage with really good hard hit numbers 48.3% hard hit rate 11% barrrel rate you love that paired with a double digigit launch angle yes and he's got an expected batting average that's higher than his so this is one of those players that the the value will be realized of like oh look what he did on the paper and stuff like that but there's something for us getting to watch us right now Joe that Lawrence Butler is an absolute no-brainer rest of season by the way his consensus rank between like Yahoo and ESPN was low I talked about it on itl uh yesterday still pick up a bull the not word he is still pick up a bow but talk to me about obviously rest of season I think you agree he is absolute must own in a pickup but that he might be one of those undervalued players next year that it might not be realized until March that like oh this is going to be a dude as like a fourth or fifth outfielder in fantasy drafts that is going to have huge returns yeah this is like you like you've alluded to several times one of those guys where if you're really paying attention right now I don't think it's really going to fall through the crack so much for the sharper players you might be playing like a casual guy maybe you're not even listening to the show right now you're picking it up later on and in February March and you're starting to draft maybe he's not going to be somebody that gets that much interest but Lawrence Butler like I really changed my tune on him I wasn't that interested earlier on in the season guy gets off to this like incredible kind of run they're not usually sustained for guys that kind of just pop out of the blue like this but like you've mentioned the hard hit data is legit Oakland's offense has been a lot better than we could have expected I think that's also been a part of it a 100 games and he has 100 runs in RBI combined which is really really good another thing to factor in for next year is that they're not gonna be playing in this awful ballpark anymore they're gonna be playing in Sacramento which is a very hitter friendly ballpark so that's going to change a lot of the way I view Oakland's lineup I think because they've been in one of the bottom three hitters parks in baseball and now they're going to go you're much better with the minor league park stuff than I would be one of the better parks to HD him in the miners from what I understand yeah I'm not actually I know ballpark factors in especially in minor league isn't like outside of like the PCL and I think that's where this is the PCL is just a a better hitter friendly environment but to your point uh Lawrence Butler at home this year hitting 245 with six homers in 163 at bats in 147 at bats on the road so essentially the same thing 265 a 20 uh a 20 point average boost and 13 of his homers so double the homers 20 point boost on the batting average away that's getting out of this stupid ballpark just something to sit on there so you know if I imagine after last night he's not sitting out there but if there's any type of wavery thing or he was I understand getting out from Lawrence Butler when he was cold but to me he's represented when you see those type of like hard hit and Bar numbers those are guys that um I'm going to hold on to a little bit longer I'm probably going to be a little bit more finicky about letting go of those guys because once they start getting going especially young guy like this once they really start getting going they've got the elements of like oh this is a guy that can do exactly what he's doing 2015 2515 next year 255 2020 definite realm of possibility for Lawrence Butler uh reminder again you guys got fantasy questions for your playoffs drop them in the chat we'll star how however many and we'll answer as many as we can or just a couple whatever it is but uh any fantasy questions your fantasy question might be one that another has as well so we'll do it here in just a tiny bit also want to remind you guys of course that this episode is brought to you by bet 365 promo code leading off you can bet five bucks get 150 in bonus bets when you go to bet 365 go and download the app today use that promo code leading off start betting your first fives your player props and more bet $5 get 150 in bonus bets only at bet 365 gambling problem call 1800 bets off or 1 1800 Gambler let's get rolling with how about your Toronto Blue Jay Bowen Francis has been on a heater seven shutout Innings he got the win Blue Jays won two to nothing he walked n struck out five last five starts 40 with a 1.06 ER 3 strikeouts in 34 Innings plus we had the no almost no hitter I saw a stat that said over the last 20 This was oh this was catify cify put this out I forgot I pasted it right there I was about to try to cite it from my brain uh catify basball said Bowen Francis has pitched 29 innings in his last four starts and allowed only 10 base runners no MLB pitcher has ever done that before and they said or they ended it's completely ridiculous Joe there is a couple of things that codify was posting yesterday where I was like what there was one stat um so there's this thing that's called game score I think uh Tom Tango or Bill James or one of those older baseball Pioneers came up with this thing called game score essentially to you quantify how how good a start was in the last 35 years there's been four or five excuse me five pitchers who've had four consecutive starts of a game score of 78 or higher those pitchers are Randy Johnson Pedro Martinez Johan Santana Clayton Kershaw and Bowen Francis an unbelievable list to be on if you look at what he's done as a starter this season I love Sierra Sierra is my favorite erra estimator if you look at his work as a starter he is 11th among starting pitchers in Sierra as a starting pitcher there is some time in relief there that wouldn't be the number if you just look at Fan graphs but he has been in that department better than CE Logan Gilbert Rangers Suarez Blake Snell I am going to be very interested to draft Francis next year and to your point he might be one of those guys where people who just kind of tuned out baseball for the year just don't have any interest but man I'm going to be hammering him every time in drafts and one last thing the Jays are gonna have two of the six pitchers of the month this season in Major League Baseball despite being an awful team BOS wanton it in April Francis is gonna win it in August but the team just hasn't been able to live up to that yeah and I mean this is just one of those guys I really want to see like how much he continues to roll with it uh and I probably need to pay a little bit more attention to some of the stuff Plus numbers and everything like that but I'll tell you 5.82 erra post po pre-all-star game 1.58 post Allstar and that includes six or six games started seven pitched so it's not just this like little run he still had a 1.5 erra and he's pitch better on the road that's another thing to take a look at 3.24 Road erra B Francis has been a dude he's getting some strikeouts he's uh deep into Innings his surface level stats I don't think uh necessarily like jump jump out like the K percentage 24% um the the expected estimators 3.57 expected ra so it's about where he's at but he's been just like really efficient he hasn't been dominant in any one standpoint of his stuff but he has been dominant on the field for the last couple so yeah this is one of those things I think in a perf if we're being honest a perfect scenario you want him to taper just like a tad bit so his cost isn't ridiculous next year but he he's border he was borderlining like oh back into the rotation stuff if he continues this he's gonna be a dude that goes around 15200 and maybe even a little bit higher like I know we're making this case like oh hey these you know people aren't going to pay attention but the hardcore baseball people are going to pay attention and they're gonna look at that second half and go okay well yeah maybe it's a short sample size but you know he was one of those dominant pitchers in the second half and that will carry over to next year's value so you know selfishly I don't want that to go nuts but at the same time you know if you're running in a playoff run right now you want you want B Francis to not stop you want him to continue this 10 base runners in like 30 Innings that's absurd that's crazy Joe yeah when you said that nobody done that before I like that's just it seems like maybe like a something Prime de Grom would have done or Pedro Martinez but the fact that nobody's done that to that extent who would have thought it for bow and Francis I personally as a blue jay fan would never expected it if you asked me even a month ago but here we are yeah yeah well not me I was very dismissive of him I was like nope I don't think so uh let's move on here big injury usually we do injuries in in that section but Vinnie pasquantino gonna miss the rest of the season dios with a broken right thumb the expectation is he is going to miss six to eight weeks which that is going to take him out of the rest of the year that is critical uh I actually did a hit on CBS Sports HQ I it was earlier this week and we talked about the Cleveland Royals situation and one of the biggest differences but because these teams have a lot of similarities the Royals and the Guardians like rotation has looked similar Bullpen has actually looked kind of similar um road record Cleveland was a little bit better against like plus 500 teams but and Kansas City was one of the hottest teams as a recent but what was the big differential between these guys run differential the Kansas City Royals in the division had the highest run differential but also one of the highest run differentials in baseball they're also scoring I think they were top three I think I think they were third in baseball and runs scored per game and I did this stat runs scored per game year over-year the top 10 in runs scored this year the two teams with the biggest rise in run well actually three teams who scored you know more runs than last year Yankees Diamondbacks and Royals those are the ones that have had almost a full run differential from 2023 to 2024 so what am I getting at the offense has been absolutely critical for the Royals and yes Bobby Whit Jr looks like an MVP but having Vinnie pasquantino kind of push it back this bad news for the Royals from like a real baseball perspective horrible news for Fantasy owners that have been kind of running out past quentino because I don't know if there's any great first base Alternatives that are sitting out there Joe yeah just like looking at the way wire Ramon Rus has been really really hot for a little while yeah um Tolson is out there in a lot of leagues Josh Bell is still doing things he's still Bing cleanup every day in Arizona there are some options but losing Vinnie he'd been so so good man I my my best team this year of all my teams is tgfbi I'm like top 15 overall and I just lost Vinnie I lost Vinnie and Austin Riley so it's gonna be going to be kind of tough to uh keep that going down the stretch but hoping I can finish in the top 10 if if things break right for me but things are not breaking right so far no and if anything is a it's a pretty brutal blow uh we've had a little waiver Mania it's a it's a shade back to Old School uh you know a couple years ago where August would happen and every team would just place players on waivers the reason behind that a couple years ago was you have a guy go through waivers if they cleared you could then actually trade them or if they were picked up you could work out a trade doesn't apply anymore waivers now are exactly what they're really meant and should be they put a guy on waivers and they hope another team goes and picks them up so they can just kind of dump the contract so the Giants Place multiple players highlighted by thyro Estrada and then the Cardinals uh just placed Tommy fam after reacquiring him they put him on waivers so again these teams throwing him out maybe trying to get out from under some of the money but uh we haven't seen any claims we haven't seen any movement but the Tommy fam one was kind of a kind of a bigger deal another big deal the reds are bringing up Rett louder today to start the second game I thought may even be the first but it's it's one of the games of the double header that they've going on against the Brewers and that was a big shock we talked about earlier in I'm excited about it because I love Rett louder uh he's a highend command pitcher with a really devastating slider I think he's going to be a successful pitcher in the majors I'm not sure if this is the start that I like or any of these starts this year so I would be very timid about it but uh what are your thoughts are you avoiding louder or you picking them up to stream um first career start at Great American Ballpark it's not something I really want to get into especially this time of year the strikeouts are kind of what I'm aiming for with a lot of my pickups and I don't think the strikeout upside at least as of today is that high I think I would have to be on on your page here and I'd be passing unless we see like three or four dominant starts in a row then you'd maybe think about it for the last week of the year but I don't want to take chances this time of year with rookies who might do well and they might give up seven or eight or in runs and just end your season for you I try and played a little more conservative this time of year with the pickups yeah and I would be conservative in this in this regard but you know maybe he'll be solid with it but again this is a high-end command pitcher but rookie in his first start so I'm not really sure uh we've had a little rookie Madness just want to point out the two current favorites for Rookie of the Year both eclipse the 20 home run marker yesterday Colton cowser 20th home run against the Dodgers and he has kind of Taken it's Al's just like a really weird spot and uh in the NL Jackson Merill solo Homer and stole a base so that's a little combo meal there so he is at 20 homers and 16 stolen bases he is almost at that 2020 marker uh and finally Jacob deg Grom is going to make another rehab assignment start on Sunday at triaa Round Rock and that potentially might be the final one he had pitched two perfect Innings earlier in the week and what was interesting is they then had him throw a side session after to kind of pick up some of those Innings like another 24 so I would expect this next outing to be around four and then I think think he's going to come back for next week and they'll probably put him at like an 85 is pitch cap so if that happens Jacob Dr gram will be back and I think you can you can just kind of free flow him back into lineups oh yeah oh yeah deg Gro is one of those guys where all it's going to take is like two or three great starts I heard it I think it was some podcast I was listening to I want to say it was like Roa wire or something and somebody suggested like the grma has three or four great starts he's a first-rounder next year he very well could be we talking 15 teamers I don't think would do it personally but all it takes is one person in a room and if he has like if he looks like vintage the Grom it's going to be interesting to see if he maybe gets pushed above skin or scoble in a given room uh I I agree with the sentiment I wholeheartedly disagree with the take there is 0.0% Chance Jacob degam is a first rounder you're hearing it from me first there's no chance no there's no chance 15 team I guess we open it up but guess what there's still no chance he's going to be a first-rounder because everyone in that conversation cannot help but say what you just did well I wouldn't do it but there is somebody no one's going to do it you have Paul skes and T scoble who are slam dunk one and twos yeah no one's taking Jacob to Grom in the first so I think that take is wrong but I think the sentiment of where he's gonna go and how high he's going to push up I agree I do think he can go he went in the third round of that nfbc uh thing that Bubba was doing I think that's the range but you're gonna have dude two years ago doing shows with um Ariel Cohen and Ariel super smart guy talking about how good he can be and Ariel's like oh yeah by the way he's he's on my no draft list like all the analytics guys there's no chance all the old school guys there's no chance they're they're gonna just avoid him no matter what he does but there will be people that'll fall back in but he will not be a he's not going to be a first-rounder because this is like talking yourself into Mike Trout being a first-rounder again there is actual literal correlation between those dominant awesome crazy cool player but he's always hurt you cannot get more than a 100 Innings so no one's gonna take that risk so that's why it's like I think third round is the max range but he could be like a top end of the first round you know something like that but uh again sentiment yes take no that's where I'm at on the I don't think you're I don't think you're crazy and like I said like I'm probably not gonna do it but I would be willing to put a couple bucks on it that like if we're looking at minimum picks he sneaks in there in some drafts i' put put money on that well no I'm not gonna like Okay We're Not Gonna I'm not gonna do like hey there's a hundred drafts and one person might take him in the first like no I that of course that could happen yeah yeah you gota I'm talking like 10 drafts he's going in the first and like 40% of them no way there's always one outlier I yeah okay you know we did the prospect one p8p drafts where I create my Prospect ADP and someone took like Leo de in the the fifth overall and this was like two months ago like outliers happen did a fantasy football best ball last night dbo Samuel went in the first round these things happen but I I say from like an industry agreement standpoint it's not gonna happen and he's there's no chance he's gonna get into that spot but I'm like rooting for him I'll be one of those that are going to want to draft him but not at a top three round cost that's going to be too too much I wanted to point out this is a good take By Angelo I completely agree with this um big Christmas yensy Noel if he qualifies at first would be a nice that is one of those nicer plements I love his underlying stats and that would be one of those guys that I do uh take a look at we had a couple questions for your playoff prep let's do those before we get to anything else onal Cruz or Netto rest of season from Ryan Ryan McKenna the outfielder I think I'd go O'Neal Cruz it's pretty close but I think I would take Cruz overall what about you I uh I asked a certain pitcher that's a friend of mine about O'Neal Cruz recently and I was like what are your thoughts on O'Neal Cruz and he looked at me and he went nasty nasty uh I am an O'Neal Cruz homer so I'm gonna say O'Neal Cruz but I mean Zack Netto is Zack Netto has put himself I don't even think arguably in the com conversation of that third round glob of the cheros and the Merrills and stuff like that this is a 2020 Short Stop onio Cruz is in that same range and it to be Frank could be lower than them but like everything in the profile is good and I think way too many people are focused on like oh yeah that the stats are okay dude's hitting almost 270 O'Neal Cruz the guy that had the 30% K rate at one point this year he's sitting close to 270 and his launch angle sucks and he can fix that that's the type of change where a guy goes from 21 22 homers to 40 homers with the the way he barrels the way his hard hit and the way you know he gets the ball he could get the ball in the air with those hard hit numbers that's a guy that would be 40 homers so I'm gonna say O'Neal Cruz I guess longterm I'll still go with him rest of this season but you know I wouldn't kill anybody that uh cared about Neta this year uh Barry says are we picking up either of the Angel starting pitchers that were called up Kaden Dana the most interesting 20 20-year-old guy that very aggressive assignment the other guy Al deeri I think is going today no thanks Kaden Dana maybe but I think it's the same line of like ret louder and Desperation you'd have to really worry about what's around you I would worry about my ratios so like I'm not trying to stream him but in like Dynasty keeper things like yeah you should probably swoop him up it might be a good little end of the season but there's not a lot of great support with the angels what about you no no Angels pitching in general is pretty tricky to get around I'm pretty surprised that re Demmer still hasn't made his way back up although the numbers in Triple A have been been kind of not too good um but aligar I think he's the first Italian born player who's GNA play in Major League Baseball from what I understand there was some something I saw but if that's the case then Fort AI for all the Italians who might be in the chat today like you mean like he was born in Italy is what you're something like that something like that yeah he's the first Italian born player to play in Major League Baseball I believe I believe I could be wrong on that but yeah no CBS has an article first Italian born and raised player to appear in a Major League baseball game pretty cool okay well Joe should have been here this is not that's not the show for me I need the old muddy Welsh Celtic type of people where's where are those guys for me uh MD says what are we gonna do with Marcus Simeon is he washed he was so hot earlier this season he's not washed I don't think like he's still been relatively productive for the season as a whole he's not somebody I could cut like if you cut mark Simeon what are you looking at on the short on the second base waiver wire like it's a pretty pretty thin position like unless you're really that confident that Connor nor is Gonna Keep Up what he's been doing like I just don't think you can move on from him like it's been a bit disappointing he's not going to get drafted where he probably has been the last couple Seasons going into next year but what what you what are you gonna do about it you can't really drop him you can't bench him really I think you just got to roll with it I don't think you can do much about it I think you canot draft him next year and maybe he is starting to taper down 10 team leagues like maybe there's something out there but I'm probably not moving off of anything Lee says next week start one nmo Julio Lane Thomas or should I pick up walner walner like I like the improvements with the strikeouts that we've seen from him recently but we're still talking about like a 30% strikeout rate at best I I think honestly I still just have to go with Julio and maybe that's wrong of me like but I just feel like that upside I can't leave him on the bench I know it's been a Bad Year by and large but if I bench Julio I just know that he's going to hit three home runs and steal four bases that week I gotta just go with my first rounder and put him in my lineup still I I think I agree with you on that nmo is interesting but Nemo's also kind of tapered back I mean he's got an 1820 season going on so far but um yeah he just hit 188 in July 226 in August really falling off this is after this monster June I would go with J based on those options I would go with uh July and then the final question on The Listener side who's the number one overall pick next year Jerry said judge what say you on that just real quick we're gonna have tons of offseason content um we'll tell you about the September plan but there's also luckily for everybody we're gonna have October November and December plans even in early prep where we're going to be doing a lot of Dynasty and early look stuff but what say you real quick on who the number one overall player is next year because you probably have Otani judge aunia gets thrown back into that mix Bobby wit and um I don't know I'm not saying this is for sure but I you could arguably put Ellie in that discussion too so I think there's Five Guys you could maybe make cases for personally for me the top three is GNA come down to Whit Otani and judge number one pick the J Gro yeah according to Joe Rico it's gonna be J gram number one overall hey hey hey hey hey come on now teasing I'm Ellie's interesting especially because the batting average hasn't sunk you the way that you might have thought when you factor in that Cincinnati's probably going to be better next season they just dealt with so many injuries and underperformers this year Ellie's probably in the conversation I think it's got to be Otani though like we're talking about a guy who has this incredibly secure lineup around him he's about to go 5050 in a year coming off of I don't know if it was Tommy John or brace or if they ever even told us what it was but a year coming off of elbow surgery he's gonna go 5050 and hit 300 it's just ridiculous and then next year depending on your format you might also have the ability to put him in there as a pitch on a given week so let's say like if it's nfbc League you have to choose at the beginning of the week where you're going um so he's usually a hitter unless it's a twar week but like ESPN I'm pretty sure the standard on ESPN is it daily leagues and you can put Otani in the lineup every single day if he's pitching or hitting so there I think it's easily Otani I think you could defer and maybe go with Bobby Wht Jr he's gonna hit 350 and go 3030 I think the injury worries will scare people off of Judge and aunia a little bit so I think a lot of time it's goingon to come down to Otani and Wht and for me it would be Otani I think it's funny listening to that because you were almost like making the case for like all five of the guys I think aunia is uh gonna be the least I actually think yeah you will see more Ellie I think you'll see Ellie with a higher ADP than aunia next year because of everyone's burn on it I think it's Otani even if it's just a hitter version of Otani the two-way players a no-brainer and I just think that's really easy I think there's a case that like Ellie's like absolute dominance as far as and also his like progression too like he he has his strikeout rate under 30% which is huge he's made major strides as a hitter he's hitting 260 and he's got video game numbers he's going to end at like 65 SE or 2570 or something like that um but but also say Otani is GNA be the top guy but it it's gonna be a pretty great like top four or five next season that's what you love in fantasy and the back end too is gonna be so slick you're I'm gonna tell you this right now KDs wise You're Gonna Want like a top five pick because the wraparound players in the second third round are going to be phenomenal that's where you're going to get Merrills and carrols and and uh andos oh my that was very well done that was very well done I think the back end of the first this year like the top end is gonna be really really nice of course but the back end like you might be able to double tap like aunia tatis or something like that at the back end of the first it might be a pretty like because there were some people this year who picked at the back end might have got like an Otani judge combo you could hypothetically get that if aunia slips to you know nine or 10 tatis is gonna be kind of dicey maybe he gets back to the first maybe Tucker slips a little bit like there might be some really nice combos at the onew turn next year yeah and something to think about too is like is there any effect if judge if uh soda doesn't resign with the Yankees you know does that affect anybody for um judge maybe it's a good conversation we'll have plenty of it uh in the off season and we're giving you guys some extra innings on the show today because we're going to go a little bit long uh because I do not want to skip past this two start pitchers for next week I think this is very important I've highlighted four players that I think are doable um to whatever degree we're going to find out here these are four players I think you need to pay attention to that have theoretical two starts for next week for the September week starting with the highest of owned but I looked CBS he's owned more but it's still like in the 70 percentile range his consensus rank is like under 40% uh Brian beo with the Red Sox who has not been great this season consistently been good as of recent especially over the last like two weeks next week he has got the New York Mets and the Chicago White sock so I ask you Brian Bale yay or nay on two starts next week I think it's gonna have to be format dependent for me in deeper leagues I would do it if it's a shallow format like we're talking ESPN if it's a 10 teamer 12 teamer with those shallow rosters I just I just couldn't get behind it like he has been a lot better the command's also not been that great recently lots of walks I I still wor about the overall product there's not a high strikeout upside here a lot of the time generally speaking it's a pass for me if I can just start him against the White Sox in the daily League I'd absolutely do it but both of them kind of does scare me yeah I agree with the White Sox one uh I would be willing to take the risk if the risk was needed if that makes sense for everybody I'm not taking unwarranted two start risks just to do it but if I need the Innings I'm going to go with that probably the the highest and most talked about and most obvious at this point asalo beo with the uh A's who we hit the other day I hit on the strikeout prop he's just been uh in dude range and guess what next week he has a phenomenal matchup he has got the uh Mariners and the Tigers this is great from a prop standpoint for strikeouts the A's have been pretty hot I don't I'm not really sure you can get like if you're if you're bunching up like five or six teams that you want a pitcher to face I think the Mariners and the Tigers would be at least two of those team you obviously like white socks you would want to throw in there yay or nay on the two the tigers scared me a little bit um there's certain bats in that lineup that I do worry about but generally speaking this is a go for me I think of all the guys we're going to talk about in the two starts this is probably the one you should be aiming for the most this is also mine uh Simeon Woods Richardson's another one of those 50% ownership on on CBS way everywhere else he's got Tampa Bay in Kansas City I'm gonna do this other one David Festa also in there these two are the Minnesota Twins that are likely two starters he is way under owned also has Tampa Bay in Kansas City Y your nay on the twins two starters next week I prefer to go fast though with the more strikeout upside for me personally uh Simon Woods Richardson is is like almost what Kyle Harrison was doing earlier in the year it's very solid it's usually like five innings three earn runs four strikeouts or something but it doesn't really move the needle so much for me where I feel like fesa does have a much higher upside I think he's more talented arm yeah I mean they're both young guys there's a little bit of volatility risk with both but I think I would lean to warts Festa before Simeon Woods Richardson that's funny you say that because I think my my two like someone else someone in the chat put like Springs like yeah Jeffrey Springs out there sure I just didn't put him on there I didn't think he'd be available um I would say that beo and Festa are probably my two favorite speculative two start ads this coming week yeah we're on the same page for sure okay we're on the same page three up and three down uh we had three players with two homers we obviously had one player with three homers three players had two Homer days yesterday Matt Olsen Brendan Rogers and Derek Hill just like you guys all wrote it up uh number two JJ Blade with a five for five day he also had a homer he a man LA's just they know they know what they're doing with them optimizing and then na evaldi seven Innings 10 strikeouts very very good start on the down Valente Palazo Oro Palazo four Innings six earned runs gave up three homers no bueno Kade Povich three and onethird of an inning gave up 10 hits and five and runs no thanks and Tolson someone just put in the chat hey remember when Tolson was a sleeper this year 0 for three with three strikeouts so it's still little bit of a rough go on the injury front would you believe this Kyle Tucker went through a pregame workout on Thursday at minute made Park Joe I have said I think you could be done essentially with Kyle Tucker but they keep teasing us with this you think we're gonna see Kyle Tucker soon your guess is as good as mine honestly I hate to be the bad analyst but who who knows man at this point I feel like it could happen maybe we get a couple weeks of him if you're killing an active bench spot at this point in a shallow League I'm not sure it makes so much sense he's gonna have to come back and look exactly like Kyle Tucker of old to have it make sense but at the same time you've been holding them for four months if you cut him today and he comes back next week and starts doing Kyle Tucker things you're gonna hate yourself so I feel like you should kind of lean towards holding on but man he's on the mil card and who know who knows when but also like what does it mean like they keep telling us dumb stuff they're like he ran a base and they're like pregame workout like what does that mean did he have a pregame chicken wings and he had a stretch like I don't know what that mean so I'd be more specific yeah if you don't have to cut him don't I'm just not optimistic is really my big Point uh Bobby Miller apparently is dealing with a knee injury this is coming off of like what was finally I think a decent start like he has just really been a huge massive disappointment this year Lucas EG he left Thursday's game in the eighth inning after taking a comebacker off of his pitching hand he had been the closer with the Royals so that one kind of stinks Alec bom was removed from Thursday's game due to a left-hand discomfort that one could be worrisome I don't I someone in the chat was freaking out about it earlier but I'm not optimistic about that one and I think that one could actually be one of the more devastating ones on this list and have you seen any update on bone so the latest thing I saw and I'm just double checking in case there's a new update the X-ray was negative but they're going to send him for an MRI and see if there's anything a little more nefarious so holding my breath but like you said not expecting great things here yeah hold your breath hold on to your butts uh Tyler glass now is scheduled to C play catch on Friday have a catch apparently he's what he's going to do they're optimistic that he's going to return this season so again whatever that ends up actually meaning and Red Sox plays David Hamilton on the 10day a with a fractured index finger he had been your stolen base monster and now he's not so there you go those are your injuries uh let's turn our attention over to some bets my friends that's right it is time for the Best Bets of the day on Friday sorry I talked you know it kills me that Bubba doesn't do it and then I kind of did it so apologies you know why it's because like I'm the I produced the show so I like before I was doing it every day with you I would hear it so I'm like okay someone's gonna have to fill in for Welsh and when Welsh says it there's going to be a gap there so we'll have to we'll have to get Bubba along here yeah yeah exactly well you guys will have a chance to do that we'll talk about that here in a minute so Best Bets of the day let's do it bet 365 my friends go and download that use promo code leading off and download the betting Pros app and you can track all your bets and I tell everybody as well you can sync to your book so you don't have to do any work that's what I do but also if you want to see how you might do this is an underrated thing in like any type of the betting world just want to track to see like what am I good at before you dip your toe into it that's actually what the betting Pros app can do for you you can go and just input what you would like to bet and you can track that and then you can start tackling it it's so it's a great training tool and it's a great tracking tool you can also follow me bettingpros docomo but Mr Joe Rico what do you got going for today we're gonna start off with Seth Lugo and he's been really not so great recently it's been the better teams when he faces a decent offense they've really gotten him over the last four starts Philadelphia Minnesota and Boston have all kind of taken him out behind the shed and today it's Houston and I don't think he's goingon to do terribly well against Houston I'm looking at the outs prop and it's 18 and a half they're expecting him to work into the seventh inning today against a tough offense considering what we've seen from him as of late I just can't really see him doing that so I'm taking the under on Seth Lugo 18 and a half outs I'm also going back to the Taj Bradley well because I saw the strikeout line at four and a half today it's a little bit daunting because it's against San Diego and they don't really strike out so much but four and a half is a very low number to hit for a guy who's got a roughly 30% strikeout rate so I'm I'm taking Taj Bradley there it's a little bit risky but it's at minus 135 so the books do expect this one to hit as well and then the final one is Vladimir Guerrero Jr who has been you know outside of Aaron judge probably the hottest player in baseball for the last couple months I'm taking over one and a half total bases at plus 110 today against Pablo Lopez who has been fairly solid himself but there have been some inconsistencies this year and the way that vat's hitting like if it was Walter Johnson on the other side of the bump I think I might take over one and a half bases so those are the bets Seth Lugo under outs Tosh Bradley over strikeouts and Vladimir Guerrero Jr over one and a half total bases and all of them at B 365 well I am not dipping my toe into the player prop market today as much as I want to looking around I was actually looking last night to try to get ahead of some numbers I just didn't feel anything that I really wanted to jump into but I did find some lines that I like to play and we got a couple uh first five total run unders we're going to play today first up we're going to go with the Chicago Cubs and the Washington Nationals we got sha on the mound Jake Irvin has also been pretty good four and a half under at minus 125 yes please we're going to take that we're also going to go Atlanta and Philly on the four and a half under through the first five innings a little bit higher on uh the uh one minus 135 on the juice but we're going to take both of those through the first five taking the under and then we're going to play a nerfy today we're gonna go with your Toronto Blue Jays and the Minnesota Twins we got gausman and Pablo Lopez we're going no runs to the first inning again a little bit more juice minus 135 playing a little bit safer because I don't like the player props today that's what I'm jumping into and those my friends are the Best Bets of the day for Friday if I can get the artwork in there look at that all right uh let's go over to the Home Run board where I am still not there my God it's I'm moving I don't think I had any homers recently Fred Dinger can confirm Donnie hit me up uh like this morning and was like did you get on the board because he wants to come bring something no I don't think I had any homers uh the bottom to get on the board is at 35 Joey P is at 39 but wonky is coming in hot jumping Joey P at 13 but our leaderboard friends gotta tell you it might be over South African G I hope I didn't just Jinx South African G has a six home run lead over second place he has 54 to 48 for br trot Razer rone came in like a wrecking ball he has come up to three with 47 and Larry's got 45 that's the top of our board South Africa g b Trot Razer Ron and Larry C but wow There is almost a 10 home run difference between fourth and first place on the Home Run contest which we have had a blast doing all season long and I would just remind everybody as well you guys want to take part in it maybe next year be a part of our Discord it's a Discord exclusive fantasypros.com chat get inside be a premium member and then you can be part of this contest where we're giving away that awesome Vladimir Guerrero Jr autograph bat the year before we did the custom Corman Carol helmet which I got in person we'll blow it out again for next season just wait maybe we'll do something even bigger love to have you guys so oh home runs we gotta pick our home runs who's your home run today I went with ree oskins against uh against louer in his debut he has been very cold I think he's due to hit one today and a Great American Ballpark against a guy making his first start I think Hoskins is a get right day for him okay that I mean that's a it's a bold home run call today uh yeah and I like it I like it I'm gonna go Rafael Des I'm not sure Des is cash for me at all I wanted to go jiren Duran I just wanted to pick on the matchup so I wanted someone in Boston so I'm gonna go with Rafael Des through the weekend unless I go on to the betting Pros app and decide to pick otherwise Lee said what does everyone who beats Welsh get you get a good old pat on the back congratulations I'm I'm proud of you that's what it is that's what you'll get so here's a big question what's going on September final month of leading off is coming up here for the season and again we're going to be getting into the Dynasty stuff really the minute the season starts back up Joe Rico and Casey Bubba for the most part will be taking over for the show starting next week here's another caveat it's a holiday on Monday so there is no show on Monday because I will still be on the Monday episode so I will be on the next couple Mondays you guys can I'll hang I'll be once with Bubba once with Oro but the other episodes Oro and Casey Bubba are going to be taking you home so still same great show it's just not completely without me but I'm still kind of here so I can't you can't throw me into the Joe pot or anything like that so I'll be here on Mondays Oro and Bubba the other days as we finish out leading off but we will have more offseason content as well and we'll continue telling about all that awesome stuff when we're talking Dynasty early ranks and all of that so find him at Joe Rico 999 and you'll find him next week you also can find me over all over on the fantasy Pro stuff a very fun thing I just want to remind everybody spent three hours last night with Justin steel Cub starting pitcher Justin steel we did an episode which is going to be on the fantasy pros football side if you want to check it out we had a blast we razed Derek Brown and then we actually hung out for like almost two hours after we did another best ball we were shooting Talking Shop be careful what I say here Talking Shop here you know what I was about to get in trouble uh we had a good time we had a good time Justin steel is an awesome dude so if you guys want to go check that out we'd love to have it but there you go that's it extra long episode because uh I'm not going to talk to you next week but you know you can find me at is at the Welsh you can find Oro at Joe Oro 99 let's get it my friends we'll talk to you next week right here on leading off peace