2024 Travers Stakes and Travers Day First Look Preview

[Music] hi everyone Matthew Des SAS here with naira bets and I'm excited to give you a first look at the not one not two not three not four but five grade One races taking place on Travers day of course highlighted by the feature race the Travers eight horses we're gonna get into it can the Philly thorpedo Anna get the win but listen before that make sure to press that like button on this video And subscribe to The Nair bets YouTu yoube channel to get all of our great content we have individual Travers Spotlight videos we're going to have a ton of individual race previews with all of our naira analysts throughout the week we're gonna have a great capping the card with drf's David aragona it's going to be a lot of content all week for the Travers but listen we also got Tuesday night fun at ainoya Downs educational handicapping and betting tutorials and so much more so press that subscribe button well listen they just drew the card for the Travers um recording this on Sunday afternoon the past performances should be out Sunday evening and wow what a card up and down even outside of the graded stakes races it is still a loaded card and excited for this 14 race card on Saturday now let's talk about these five grade ones we're GNA go through each of them spend a little bit of time talking about initial reactions quite frankly I'm probably most excited for the h Allen Jerkins that field is absolutely loaded I can't wait to talk to you about that one and of course the feature of the Travers Stakes well listen let's talk about the forgo which is of course one of the great ones seven furlongs for four year olds and up this is a really interesting race and it's drawn some interesting horses into it you see a horse like gun pilot for Steve asmos who I think is very accomplished horse and has some top end talent I think needs to kind of have that breakthrough win but certainly has the ability draws the inside rail that can be a challenge sometimes is going to need to show a lot of early speed to avoid getting shuffled back you know obviously the horse that everybody's going to be drawn to is the number four in this race and that's baby Yoda talk about a horse for a course the horse loves Saratoga now didn't run particularly well last time out that's been an issue with baby Yoda throughout his career that he is an inconsistent horse and that sometimes when he takes that step up to that grade one company he's not quite there and so even though he got that big grade two win earlier this year during the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga racing Festival weekend still you never know with this sort of grade one competition whether he's gonna bring his aame bill Mott I think the trainer has done an outstanding job of managing him and putting him in spots where he can be successful and he's done that throughout his career and usually tries to give the horse a little confidence boost after a poor performance the fact he's going straight back into a grade one tells me Bill M probably sees that this horse is training pretty well going into this race I think a horse that might be a little under the radar is run classic for Jose D'Angelo really lik this horse a lot went over and actually ran in maidon now he's gonna be second back from running over in the golden Chen so I think that's a horse that could be a little bit dangerous second start in North America after that long international trip earlier this spring and I have a lot of confidence in Jose D'Angelo's Barn always followed him from his time down in South Florida when he brings horses up here they're usually pretty live and he's not gonna spot his horses in a place that he doesn't think they have a legit a chance of course the horse A lot of people are going to look to is the number six Mullin for Rudy brassette Rudy's got a couple of really good sprinters and we're going to talk about one of those in the eight challenge urkin but mullin's a horse that's just won you know the last three races this year it's probably going to be the horse to beat we'll see what David aragona ends up making in terms of the morning line but is likely going to be your morning line favorite coming into this race having like I said won the last three times out Phil Bower with Anor you know Phil Bower has had a lights out Saratoga meet he doesn't enter a ton of horses up here I think he's only had 10 entries he has five wins he's got a couple of close seconds he's been turning out live run Runners all meet so I don't think you can discount anything from that barn and then a horse that I've always been a big fan of going back God probably 18 months 24 almost two years is kagi Ostro for Sheree devau this one is just is a hard trying horse I think the Seven fur Longs is probably the right distance for this horse draws the outside post I kind of like that always root for Sheree she has a lot of success up here at Saratoga another trainer who always gets the most out of her mounts and out of her ride so I have a lot of confidence in Sheree that KAG ostra is going to show up and show up in a big day having last run down at Church Hill Downs but forgo gonna be a very intriguing race let's move to the Sword Dancer which out of all of the races might be the race where you see the weakest overall grade one field but I would say it's only because of the dominance of one particular horse and that is of course the four silver knot who seems to have taken this massive step forward from three years old to four years old for trainer Charlie applebe and this horse has just been incredible I set the track record last time out going a mile in three eight now going a mile and a half on the turf and he just looks so tough in this spot to get around because he's so versatile he can go up front he can take him gate to wire he can go to the lead and do that he can track he he can close a little bit he's got the sort of Versatility and it's a relatively small field so you don't really have to worry about being hooked wide or going around three turns that's not going to be an issue so I think silver not listen he's gonna be clearly the horse to beat I wouldn't even be surprised if he's even money maybe even lower uh in terms of his post-time odds Now Applebee's got another horse in this race measured time and then you see two clemont horses Kristoff clont has Soldier rising and Farbridge Farbridge is a horse that you know I think I was probably higher on last year and just has not necessarily put together all the performances I would have suspected that he was going to when I first saw him debut a couple of years ago Soldier Rising if you want to put money on a horse to finish second man that's your horse I mean Soldier Rising that's kind of what he does that's hiso of coming up just short but always is a very honest Runner obviously draws an advantageous Post in these Marathon Turf races that inside post position will be able to save all of the ground going around the three turns but like I said silver knot is such a tough customer in this spot and is a horse that has really just blossomed into a superstar for Charlie applebe and over the last few months I've been I want to say critical but I've certainly been noting that some of Applebee's horses are more beatable than they have been in the passed when he initially would bring horses over to North America he was winning at a 42 43% rate in grade one and grade two races basically last 18 months that number has been down to 26% now listen as I joked with somebody in the paddock the other day when we were talking about this I'd love to win races at a 26% clip if I was a trainer especially grade ones still having an incredible amount of success but it is interesting you see where his horses are coming from overseas now a lot of times they're coming in from maon and they're not necessarily coming in from over in the UK that's I think a fascinating development Applebee's really struggled the last couple of years at Royal asket I think there's been a lot of speculation that maybe they haven't found the next Superstar sire after dubawi I mean d still around and with us and producing but there's this kind of concern that perhaps galphin doesn't quite have the the crop and doesn't quite have the stable of freakishly good Turf horses that they used to that said silver KN one of those freakishly good horses Cinderella's dream another one of three-year-old Philly that applebe has absolutely incredible those two are really special but like I said in this race silver not you know could end up being a horse that a lot of people single in a sequence you know because I think there are some races where you're going to feel very spread and you're gonna need to get skinny somewhere I think this is a logical spot of course we always talk about zigging when other people zag right is oh this is the logical place to single well the way you turn a profit is to not single here but actually single someplace else where other people are going to spread Etc so sometimes you got to play that game theory and turn things around on their head a little bit but this is a very tough horse to get around in the Sword Dancer well let's talk about the ballerina handicap the third of the five grade ones going seven furong for threey old no up Phillies and Mays we have another eight horse field here and this might be another spot where people maybe try to single looking at the number three vava for Sheree devvo I already mentioned how much respect I have for the devau bar and vava at this seven furong distance she's just too good uh she just can track anybody down six furong I think she's vulnerable I think even in six and a half furong she might be vulnerable to a horse that can get out up front and just go and really be speed of the speed but aeven Furlong she just has that stamina and she has that sustained run and it's just so tough to get and but this is a very very good field I think the real interesting one is Sila for Bill Mt cutting back to one turn this is a horse that you know you look at it would have presumably wanted to get as much distance as possible is kind of bred for two turns but is now cutting back to one turn in this spot uh that's an interesting horse has good early speed but again we have to wait and see kind of how she runs in this spot this is a new thing for her to kind of run on around one turn race at this level but certainly an intriguing horse could be a little bit of a price there Chad Brown's got a couple of nice horses AED and shetab booty a seed is a horse that you know I think is kind of burns money sometimes I think a seed is a very very good horse but I think just you know has a tendency to get over bet occasionally just because of where she's spotted and doesn't always come through so I do think that's a little bit of a concern shetab boy's a horse that actually really like quite a b a bit in this spot I think she's an interesting one she's gonna be the bigger price of the two for Chad Brown and again a horse that had been on the Oaks Trail last year going two turns Chad brings her back cuts her back she immediately comes back with a win in a Stakes race so she's got some Talent there for sure going seven furong I think this is a good distance for her the other two that I think are fascinating in this field are Society for Steve asmus and Positano sunset for Ian wils I like both of these horses posano sunset's going to be more of a price hasn't won the last couple of times out did come in second last time out I believe in the Chicago Stakes so this one has some Talent has some ability um Society a really fast horse and maybe the biggest challenge to vava but last time they faced off vava was able to get that win Society not being able to get her and so again how are the Dynamics going to be any different this time around Society very good early speed though can get out there and depending on how the rest of this field shakes out in terms of what everybody's decision is in terms of to go to rate to sit a little bit further back you know she's gonna obviously try to get out there up front money's gold on the far outside might have something to say about that of another very fast horse on the far outside uh seven furlongs might be a little bit more of a distance for her I think she's better at six but we'll see you know we'll see how the track is playing on Saturday Etc we're expecting relatively good weather all week so that's something to keep in mind so it's just like I said a lot of great racing here with these grade ones uh and like I said posano Sunset could be a little bit of a price it's a horse I just always really like and I'm just interested in seeing how she sets up in this spot she likes to come from off the pace so the more speed there is in the race the better it's going to be for her but she's one who's gonna come running late now the track up here at Saratoga has not been kind to closers in dirt Sprints over the entire meat only 9% of dirt Sprint winners have come from more than three lengths back at the half mile Mark so keep that in mind if you're trying to bet on a closer it's really not been happening we've seen closers get up hit the board but just not be able to get the win all right well let's talk about the race that like I said I'm maybe the most excited about which is the H Allen Jerkins Memorial Seven fur Longs for the threee olds this field is stacked and this is if you want a good betting race this is not a good betting race this is a great betting race this might be the best field that we have had this entire Saratoga meet and this is one of the best Fields you're going to see in racing this entire year in my opinion outside of the Breeders cup 11 horses so many great names in this you have world record coming off a huge win a dominating win in the Amsterdam for Rudy brassette drawing the inside rail that horse drew the inside rail in Amsterdam got the blinkers on for the first time and broke like a rocket and just never looked back this horse is freakishly fast he's a special type of Runner that day he he was six to one you might actually get a good price on world record despite how impressive that last race was in the Amsterdam just because of how loaded this field is then you gotta Speak Easy a horse that a lot of us believed was a potential Derby horse at one point this year this was a horse that was entered in the Fountain of Youth for Todd Pletcher scratched out of that race because of a minor injury came back last time out really had to be ridden hard in an allowance race but clearly hit his best stride late and it was a very nice effort Off the Bench it was a fast race it came back with a strong buyer and so Speak Easy another one who looks very tough in the spot domestic product who we saw in the Kentucky Derby the winner of the Tampa Bay uh Derby winner of the Sprint race is greatest St Sprint race as well this is another horse who loves that cut back now to one turn very tactical speed uh in terms of you know gives the jockey a lot of Versatility has a little bit of early speed but generally likes to sit a little bit further off the pace that's a really fine horse in his own right for trainer Chad Brown then you got Bob batford bringing in Prince of Monaco again from California this is a horse that's an incredibly fast horse again seven furlongs can he do it at this distance maybe he's always been a horse that I thought was maybe a little bit more distance limited to six and six and a half seven possible but he's another one serious horse serious speed a lot of great uh races in his back pocket then you get Timberlake this is maybe the most intriguing horse in this race because this is a horse that won a bunch of races at Oak Park this year uh for Brad Cox went down there and uh won one of the Derby preps and finished third then in the Arkansas Derby but what made this so curious was the horse went to the bench that for a period of time and you had heard Cox even admit well this might become a Miler he might become a one- turn horse but then he came back and ran in the hasal it was a curious spot for him to come back in to come back and run a mile and an eighth that was not what you would have expected necessarily especially when the trainer had said earlier we're gonna cut him back well now we're having him run in a grade one going two turns off the bench he ran that day he ran third he made a move at the top of the stretch and you know just faded a little bit because again I don't think he's a two- turn horse but you cut him back to one turn he's legit he's a serious serious horse at one turn he always has kind of had that look of a two- turn horse but he runs much more like a one- turn horse so I think he's a really tough customer in this spot Auto the Conqueror this is a horse that just tries to run his eyeballs out every single time up up front really dangerous horse for Steve asmos and I I like Auto the Conqueror quite a bit actually uh as as maybe a long shot to use underneath then listen you got to talk about the top three-year-old in this Division I would say which is bookham Dano who came up just short to Forever Young over in the Saudi cup overseas comes back wins the Woody Stevens in in such impressive fashion sitting behind those absolutely blistering pace and then making a move and track tracking down the leaders that day coming off a little bit of a of a maybe subpar performance some might say last time out almost losing in a New Jersey bread race at Monmouth Park but the horse that almost beat him that day little knee on the far outside he's in this race too so those two are coming back to face off against each other I think bookham Dano was a really that number still came back pretty strong and that was an example of I think little knee was just better than people thought and he got out up front and got bold and got Brave and we've seen it before when a horse gets up front and they're loose on the lead you know stranger things have happened and bookham Dano didn't get the best trip that day it was only a four horse field and somehow seems like he found trouble in every step so but he's one obviously got to take pretty seriously the New Jersey bread we always root for those type of smaller State breed horses really looks tough Reynolds Channel Jefferson Street both very talented Runners Jefferson Street coming off that second two world record last time out he was the overwhelming favorite in that race so obviously a horse that has a lot of talent 11 horses in this race I just talked about eight or nine of them that I think have legitimate chances of winning this race this is a great betting race if you have a strong conviction in this race this is one where you want to press it because you can really make yourself some money in the process of doing that now let's talk about the headliner which is of course the Travers going a mile and a quarter for the three-year-olds and we got to start with the Philly because she drew the inside rail thorpedo Anna V C Leone unmatched wisdom corporate power baton down honor Marie dornic fierceness that's your field of eight thorpedo Anna on the inside rail does this help her does this hurt her depends who you listen to she's got good early speed I don't know if she has got the early speed to get in front of nor do I know if she wants to get in front of dornick and fierceness I think those two from the outside have to go right they don't want to be caught wide going into the first turn dorick is going to go and there's a chance maybe he rates off of a horse like unmatched wisdom if he decides to go or batten down Bill MZ horse if he decides to go those two also have good early speed so those four horses are going to try to go out there up front now torpedo Anna she's got good early speed too and she's gonna hold that rail position I think the key for her is if she gets out of the rail and she gets out of the post well she gets up into the first turn I think the I spot for her would be sitting third probably behind Dorn and fierceness in that pocket trip you know and then being able to have the flexibility at the top of the lane to make a decision do you go outside do you try to make the inside move remember she's got Brian Hernandez Jr aboard what did we see him do with Mystic Dan he saved every inch of ground in the Kentucky Derby on that horse and he is very much so from the Calvin Burell School of riding the quickest way to the Finish Line is on the inside Rail and so Brian's going to give this horse a ground saving trip I think in that kind of pocket position in that third spot I don't think that's a bad place for her I think the question is where does unmatched wisdom and Baton down fit in this race in terms of the early Pace scenario because like I said they both have very good early speed unmatched wisdom coming off a win in the Kurland Stakes where he was really pressed for some early fractions and was still able to hold off corporate power who's a Stakes winner in his own right having won the Sir Barton two races ago for Suge Mahi he's a horse that also has shown a lot of maturity but one that likes to rate a little bit more off the pace can track can sit mid pack doesn't need to get up to the lead but baton down is the other speed horse in this race for Bill M we saw him go gate to wire in that Ohio Derby where he was setting some pretty strong fractions on the front end without even being asked to do so or being pressed by another horse where do those two FIT where does unmatched wisdom where to bat and down where do they fit can they get to the first turn ahead of fierceness and dornick is that their game plan because if that's their game plan it really throws everything into a little bit of a of a conundrum because then where does dornick go how far wide does fierceness get hung I I think that's just the issue that you have there theoretically I don't mind the outside post for fierceness because that's kind of a similar post than he had in the gimm Dandy he could carve out theoretically the same type of variety in the Breeders Cup juvenile sitting off loone speed basically and he doesn't mind doing that he can sit second can he sit third can he sit fourth now the verdict still out and The Verdict by the way is probably not he really needs to be up front now the other concern is if he does if Johnny ve wants to keep him clear and goes listen even if we go three wide the key is I can't get this horse behind other horses I got to float him out wide well now you're giving up ground going a mile and a quarter and quite frankly I don't think fierceness is a mile and a quarter type of horse I think he is a mile and an eighth the end of that Jim Dandy his stride was shortening up okay now he held off sier Leon and it was a heck of an effort he earned a 103 buyer in that race ran really really well all credit to fierceness but a couple of things one you can't shake the good bad good bad on off on off issue that he has with his running lines where you get one good race one bad race one good race one bad race well he's coming back on less than a month's rest and now he's going to run a longer distance than he has since the Kentucky Derby and it's gonna be a challenge for sure uh for him in this spot from that far outside post now like I said if he and dorick can cross and clear the entire field and they can sit on the inside Rail and fierston can sit just off that changes things but if unmatched wisdom and Baton down try to muck it up on the front end and they try to get out there and really PR PR the pace then I think it presents honestly an opportunity for a horse like torpedo Anna to sit just behind that pace and let that develop in front of her she can rate off the pace she's not had an issue with that she was able to do that in her maiden Victory and debut she's been able to do that before she broke poorly if you remember in that Coaching Club America Oaks Brian Hernandez got her up there didn't even really need to ask her she just kind of got up and into that second position in a rather short field but again the inside rail gon to all the ground now that also we talking about all the speed in this race that theoretically sets up for two horses one sier Leon the other honor Marie sier Leon listen the horse has never been out of the trifecta he's only been out of the xacta once which was in the Belmont Stakes where I would argue is running against the track as much as the other horses that day but he's a horse with some quirks right we've seen him weave all over the place coming down on the stretch they've changed the bit on the horse a couple of times to try to give Flav and Pratt more control you remember Chad Brown switched jockeys after the Kentucky Derby from Tyler gaffle own to Flav and Pratt Pratt's gonna be back aboard again but this is a horse that has all the talent in the world a $2.3 million son of Gunrunner who finished third in this race several years back to arrogate this is a very very good horse and when he walks in the paddock he looks the part he looks like 2.3 you know where your money went if you bought Sierra Leon because he looks the part he's got that big long stride he should appreciate the distance he should appreciate the pace setup as well and I can't help but think Chad Brown's other horse unmatched wisdom I'm not saying he's in here to be a rabbit by any stretch of the imagination he won the klin he absolutely deserves to be in this spot but I can't help but think Chad's not upset that he's got two horses that really do you know ju toose each other quite a bit in terms of their running style unmatched wisdom being a front runner sier Leon being a closer the more unmatched wisdom presses that early Pace the more it sets up for sier Leon who should appreciate that distance coming down the stretch so I think a really compelling race and then you have Andre Marie who's been kind of a hard luck horse he's a horse that always seems to find trouble just has bad trips sometimes not even kind of within his control the start of the Kentucky Derby he got ping ponged back and forth about five or six times coming out of the gate and that race was over in the first 150 yards so it's just one of those things this is a smaller field now but he is like sier Leon he is going to come from all the way in the back the question is is he better than sier Leona doing that now I think he likes the distance I don't think that's gonna be an issue Florent JW the Joi is going to need to figure out kind of the path to take to get there does he try to get the jump on sier Leon does he try to make the move first because if you're telling me who's the better closer between Sierra Leon and Anor Marie it's Sierra Leon so how do I you know how's Anor Maria gonna carve out the winning trip is it to get in front of Sierra Leone early and then make the first move to try to get up there maybe hope that Sierra Leone does what he tends to do which is you know kind of come up just short we'll see honor Marie hasn't won since he was a two-year-old in the Kentucky Jockey Club and that race has not come back particularly strong but we've seen him run well ran second to catching freedom in the Louisiana Derby the course clearly Has Talent then you got dorick and I don't know what I don't know what to do with dorick to some extent in this race for trainer Danny gargan jockey Louis sias all dornick does is Win he won the Belmont he won the Haskell and he's a stubborn son of a gun when he's up on the front end if he gets to the lead it is really really hard to get by him we saw it happen in the Belmont with mind frame mind frame got his head in front of dorick in the stretch at the Belmont Stakes up here at Saratoga and you know what dorick did put the ears back we're going you want to fight I got a fight for you right here and he goes right at him he's a gutsy horse he's a horse that likes to get challenged by other horses you do not see that often with Front Runners Front Runners tend to once a horse gets in front of them they tend to either flatten out or pack it in and and you do not see dorick do either of those things he gets tougher when that happens and you saw it happen in the high school as well Timberlake puts a head in front of dorick then mind frame puts a head in front of dor doesn't matter he fights back both times gets the win can he do a mile and a quarter again he already did it once up here in the Belmont so he's got experience with this trip at this track that is Andy Sterling pointed this out on the broadcast on Sunday that is historically unusual that any runner in the Travers would have pre experience going a mile and a quarter over the track up here at Saratoga because of course we've never had the Belmont Stakes up here before let alone at a mile and a quarter so a really fascinating race K dorick withstand a strong Pace pressure and still dig in and win against some of these horses like Sierra Leon like honor Marie like thorpedo Anna Ken ferson put together back-to-back wins and back-to-back quality efforts can the Philly do it I will say this about thorpedo Anna I saw her work out on Saturday I saw her in The Paddock on Sunday she looks absolutely phenomenal she is ears are pricked up muscles are Rippling she's posing for pictures with everybody who walks by she is ready to go in this race and Ken mCP has her ready her final workout 59 and four five furong work she was tugging and you know just under a tight strangle hold coming down the lane in that race was still easily outworking her partner uh Elco County and that was a really impressive effort I thought just watching it visually in the morning but listen dorick looked really good fierceness I will say the other day in The Paddock came out for a little bit of paddock uh training fierceness looked better at that Paddock training in my opinion then he did walking into the paddock for the Jim Dandy when he walked into pic for the Jim Dandy I had picked him to win that race and I thought yikes I might not be so smart about this well they ended up bailing me out and he won that race but he looks better he looks like he put on really good weight in the time in between the races which has always been an issue with him carrying weight he certainly looks the part now he looks tough as well if he continues to work out uh the way that he has to this point and bounce back from that race but again he's not a horse that's ever shown the ability to overcome adversity which is the opposite of dorick who always overcomes adversity and tends to know how to respond to that now the one thing I'll say about dorick is if he does not get the lead then he's not going to be the horse for you now he can sit second he did that in the Belmont because if you remember CES the gray went out up front that day and dorick raided and tracked right off of his flank basically and was right there within a half length so he can do that but if he gets shuffled back somehow to third or fourth and he has to track behind horses he has not shown the ability to do that all you have to do is look at that blueg grass Stakes where he finished fourth that day so again wow I could talk about this race for another hour so many interesting developments so many interesting Dynamics in this race the strategy of what Brian Hernandez is going to do on the inside rail with torpedo Ana how unmatched wisdom and batten down are going to have an impact on the early Pace scenario with dornic and fearness fierceness on the outside can a horse like honor Marie upset the world a little bit can corporate power a horse that I think is super talented and just hasn't quite figured it out yet can that horse Shug Mahi the trainer he's won this race four times he knows how to win the Travers he's got a good horse here can he do that a lot of great stuff listen thank you so much for tuning in to this first look at the Travers day stakes races got a lot more coming for you all week on Net's YouTube whether it's individual race previews with our analysts whether it's full card analysis whether it's the spotlight videos we're going to have some fun torpedo an content little bit of case for and case against it's going to be a lot of fun leading up to the midsummer Derby here up at the spa well listen friends my name is Matthew to sanis wishing you a great and prosperous day at the races and reminding you it's now post time