Saratoga Track Stats: Handicapping and Betting Analysis

[Music] hi everyone Matthew to sanis here with nirra bets here with another week of Saratoga Strat track stats make sure to press that like button and subscribe on Nair BET's YouTube to get all of our latest content whether it's race previews full card analyses and so much more we got you covered on Travers week with a lot of great content Travers Spotlight videos I got AA clont joining me to talk about the personal lensen and the Sword Dancer and a lot of other great races all right well listen let's dive into track stats and talk about how the Saratoga track has been playing to this point through six weeks I can't believe we're already through six weeks of Saratoga but indeed we are so let's talk about how the track has been playing and let's start with how post-time favorites are performing only 31.7% of favorites are winning at Saratoga that's a pretty low number you compare that to where other tracks typically rate in the track stats Pantheon if you will and you look at Gulf Stream Park champ ionship meet Tampa Bay Downs delmare Santa Anita those numbers are close to 40% so that's a good number for betters only 31% of favorites are winning that means you can go out and get a price about 11% of winners this meet have been 10 to one or higher so again you can go out and find those prices at Saratoga and if you're a chalk player you're down you're down 25% for this meat so it's one of those things you got to make sure you know if you just flat bet the post-time favorite you're only getting a150 back on that $2 investment so you really got to take some shots there and when you analyze how favorites are doing by their level of favoritism you start to see some more interesting data emerge So Below even money favorites we've had 64 of those only 53% are winning that's a really low number so these are horses that on their odds being below even money should be winning at well above a 50% clip and yeah yes they're winning 53 but you have to imagine there's one to nine horses one to five horses one to four one to you know one to two those horses should be winning at a 90 80 70% clip so the fact that overall any horse from four to5 to one to n is only winning at 53% tells you that even heavy favorites are vulnerable during this meet that number is only accentuated when you look at how those even money to nine to five favorites are doing we've had 100 29 of those we're getting a pretty good sample size here only 24% are winning less than a quarter of those horses are winning again statistically when a horse is those odds they should be winning well above that rate so it's really interesting to see how you really can feel confident taking a shot against some of those heavier favorites and what's interesting is horses that are 2 to1 5-2 3 to1 what we would consider maybe more lukewarm favorites they're actually overperforming they're doing a little bit better than those even money and 9 to5 horses winning at a 29% clip so really interesting to see how that's analized and like I said if you're a player who likes to beat the favorites and likes to beat chalk these numbers should be absolutely fantastic for you because it gives you confidence to know I can get a price in just about any race well where are favorites doing their best and where are they doing their worst well they're not doing their best really in a lot of spots a place where they're doing their best is not surprising off Turf races off Turf Sprints in particular 53% are winning if you look at those Maiden claiming races 37.9% of favorites are winning but that number is down pretty dramatically from the previous week that number was over 45% so over the last week those Maiden claiming races have gotten a little bit more competitive and that's a good thing to see but there's not a lot of variation honestly between where favorites are doing their best and where they're doing their worst where they're struggling though claiming races 22.6 that's been a consistent theme those claiming races that's really where you can get your big prices during this meet and we've talked about this a little bit before that a lot of horses are coming in from a lot of different tracks you see horses coming up from Laurel and Pimco you see horses coming up from Gulfstream Park coming down from Woodbine or coming down from you know other tracks and like fingerlakes you see horses coming over from Keeneland and Churchill Downs and Ellis Park and Kentucky you even see some horses coming in from the West Coast that that just creates a lot of a lot more confusion for the better when you have five or six different circuits running against each other because you don't know gez it was that last race tougher out at Ells park or was the last race tougher for a different horse coming out of Laurel versus a horse coming out of Belmont at Aqueduct so it just creates a lot more confusion I think for betters and that's one of the reasons why you're seeing those claiming races being very competitive Turf route races only 28% of favorites are winning there again not a very big number and again that's really speaks to field size we have typically over nine entries per Turf uh route Race So when you have those bigger field sizes naturally it's going to be a more competitive field GNA be a little bit tougher for favorites to do well so let's talk about how the track is playing That's The $64,000 Question for Travers week and you can look at it two ways you can look at dirt Sprints you can look at dirt routes dirt Sprints we've had a lot of cases we've had 101 dirt sprint races going around one turn you look at how the track has been playing speed my friend only nine% of horses have been able to close from more than three lengths back at the half or 38 mile Mark all right so you really need to be on the front end now you don't need to necessarily be the speed of the speed 36% of winners have basically been gate to wire but over 50% have been tracking that's the trip in these Sprints a lot of times you don't need the lead you don't need to go gate to wire but you need to be close you need to give yourself a chance turning for home we just have not seen horses making up significant ground in these dirt Sprints whether you're talking five and a half furlongs or seven furlongs so that's something to really keep in mind for the dirt Sprints now the dirt routes everybody's going to be focused on that for the Travers how has the track been playing well through 23 races which is admittedly not a massive sample size but through 232 turn I should emphasize that that two turn dirt races up here the track has been playing about as Fair as you could possibly ask about a third of favorites are leading at the half B Mark about a third of winners end up tracking within three lengths of the pace and about a third of winners 30% are closing from more than three lengths back so for Travers day that should be encouraging that should tell you unlike maybe during the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga racing Festival weekend Sierra Leon honor Marie those horses that like to close they're not going to be running against the track quite the the same way they were during that Bellmont Stakes weekend where it was a little bit more of a speed favoring track and you're seeing a much more fair and even distribution of winners going two turns on the dirt well let's talk about how the turf is playing as well and in particular the turf routes because we do have two different Turf courses here the inner Turf course which has most of the turf routes but we also run some two-turn races on the melon Turf course as well so how how have they been performing well some similarities some differences what are the similarities gate to wire winners have just not been very common only 15% of winners on the inner Turf course have been gate to wire 133% on the melon Turf course yes we can point to a few examples a horse like Laurel Valley a horse like the big torpedo a horse like white beam we can point to a couple of examples of horses that did go gate to wire going two turns on the turf but bu them large you really have needed to come from pretty far off the pace on the inner Turf course what's always interesting is there's a there's a narrative that the inner Turf course plays better to frontend speed because the turns are Tighter and it might not allow those horses coming from off the pace to do quite as well and so that's really not been the way we've seen it play out this year 53% of inner Turf tur uh route races have been won by horses coming from more then three lengths back at the half mile Mark now some of that is they start getting revved up around the turn a little bit and start making up some ground but you can make up ground on this inner Turf course and significant ground coming from off the pace over at the melon Turf course you've seen it be a little bit more fair between that tracking and closing trip so you can be a little bit closer I feel like and be successful on that melon Turf course but the Deep closers have been doing really really well on that inner Turf course something certainly to keep in mind as we move move forward during this meet and think about you know maybe the Sword Dancer and a horse uh even like silver knot who looks really dominant but that's a horse that's probably going to be up on the front end and another notable horse that managed to win gate to wire but it's going to be interesting to see again how does the turf course played throughout the week like I said we're off Turf on Wednesday for the most part we still have one Turf race on Wednesday the stakes race but we're going to be having nice weather the rest of the week it's going to be cool it's going to be nice uh Sunny so by Saturday fast and firm it's going to be fun to see how the turf course plays well let's share a couple of final little stats for you for Turf sprints on the melon Turf course 44 almost 45% of winners have been tracking within three lengths of the pace at the half mile Mark it's interesting in those Turf Sprints you've not necessarily needed to be the speed of the speed like I said you can come from off the pace a little bit in these Turf Sprints very similar to the dirt sprint races where you don't need to be on the front end so I know sometimes when we handicap Turf Sprints in particular we just go hey who's the speed of the speed that can be helpful but you can win from coming from off the pace well listen make sure to check out all of our other track stats at delmare at Monmouth Park and of course my favorite track up in Manitoba Canada that is the cinoa Downs listen we got a lot of great stuff for you this week on the Travers so make sure to press that like button on this video And subscribe to The Nair bets YouTube channel well I wish you a great and prosperous day at the races and remind you friends it's now post time