We are in a 'slowing' economy, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

Published: Jul 04, 2024 Duration: 00:03:50 Category: News & Politics

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We are in a slowing economy PROFESSOR OF FINANCE JEREMY SIEGEL. I HOPE YOU HAD A NICE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. GOOD TO HAVE YOU ON TODAY. >> THANK YOU, SCOTT. HAPPY TO BE HERE. >> WHAT IS YOUR TAKE AFTER THIS JOBS REPORT AND THE MARKET'S REACTION TO IT? >> YEAH. YOU KNOW, I THINK IT WAS A PRETTY WEAK REPORT. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE DETAILS, I KNOW THE HEADLINE NUMBER BEAT. THE REVISION WAS BEAT. THE DETAILS WERE NOT GOOD. WE ARE IN A SLOWING ECONOMY. YOU KNOW, THE FED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, LAST DECEMBER, SAID THAT GDP GROWTH THIS YEAR WAS GOING TO EXCEED 2%. WELL, WE GOT FIRST QUARTER. THAT'S UNDER 2%, AND ALTHOUGH WE ARE ALL ENTHUSIASTIC, THINKING, OH, THIS QUARTER LOOKED LIKE THREE, THEN IT LOOKED LIKE TWO, NOW MOST OF THE EXPERTS, INCLUDING ATLANTA FED AND THE OTHER BANKS THINK IT'S UNDER 2%. I THINK IT'S REALLY TIME FOR CHAIRMAN POWELL TO REALLY TEE UP IN THE JULY MEETING A CUT IN SEPTEMBER, AND MAYBE ANOTHER ONE IN NOVEMBER. I THINK INFLATION IS DEFINITELY UNDER CONTROL. AND I DON'T WANT TO SEE THIS SLOWING ECONOMY TURN INTO SOMETHING WORSE. >> THAT'S THE RISK, RIGHT? AS YOU LAY IT OUT. The job market doesnt get away from the FED THAT THE JOB MARKET, HALF THE MANDATE, RIGHT? LET'S NOT FORGET. HALF THE MANDATE ABOUT EMPLOYMENT. THE JOB MARKET DOESN'T GET AWAY FROM THE FED. JUST WHEN THEY THINK THEY'VE GOT IT RIGHT. >> ABSOLUTELY. THERE'S AN ECONOMIST, CLAUDIA SAHM, WHO MANY YEARS AGO HAD A RULE THAT SHE INVESTIGATED THAT WHEN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES A HALF PERCENTAGE POINT, AND THAT WAS ON A THREE-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE BASIS, THE PROBABILITY OF A RECESSION WAS WELL OVER 90%. WELL, GUESS WHAT? WITH TODAY'S REPORT, WE JUST MOVED TO 0.5% OVER THE LOW THAT WE HIT EARLIER THIS YEAR. SO, I'M NOT SAYING THERE'S A RECESSION. I DON'T THINK IT'S ANYWHERE NEAR 90%. I'M JUST SAYING THAT THE FED HAS TO TAKE SOME OF THESE INDICATORS, INCLUDING THE INVERTED YIELD CURVE, INTO ACCOUNT, INCLUDING THE SLOW GROWTH OF THE MONEY SUPPLY, WHICH ALTHOUGH HAS STOPPED SHRINKING IS NOT GROWING FAST ENOUGH TO, I THINK, SUPPORT A STRONG GDP ECONOMY. SO, ALTHOUGH I THINK STOCKS ARE STILL IN AN UP TREND AND THE GROWTH STOCKS STILL ARE CERTAINLY WALLOPING THE VALUE STOCKS, I THINK POWELL HAS TO TAKE NOTE. >> I FEEL LIKE YOU'RE SUGGESTING THAT NO CUT IN SEPTEMBER MEANS This market might be in trouble RECESSION ON THE TABLE. NO CUT IN SEPTEMBER MEANS THIS MARKET MIGHT BE IN TROUBLE. >> POTENTIALLY, YES. AND AGAIN, YOU KNOW, I'M LOOKING AT THE FUTURE. LISTEN, NEXT WEEK, WE GET THE CPI. THAT'S CERTAINLY GOING TO BE VERY IMPORTANT. WE HAVE JOBLESS CLAIMS. YOU KNOW, I LIKE TO SEE THEM UNDER 240. THEY'VE JUST BEEN TICKLING THAT 240 LEVEL. A BREAKOUT ON THAT. WHY NOT BE PREEMPTIVE? THE COMMODITY MARKET HAS -- IS UNDER CONTROL. ALL THE OTHERS ARE UNDER CONTROL, AS YOU KNOW, SCOTT. WE'VE TALKED SO LONG ABOUT THE FACT IF THEY USE REALISTIC SHELTER COSTS IN THEIR CPI, THEY WOULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE NOW. I THINK HE CAN AFFORD TO BRING US A MORE NORMAL FED FUNDS RATE

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