It's become more difficult to predict the Fed's next move, says Solus' Dan Greenhaus

THERE'S BROADCOM UP MORE THAN 4% HOW ABOUT META AND ALPHABET? THEY'RE JUMPING TODAY. HOW BEST TO PLAY THE MARKETS NOW AS THE TAPE TRIES TO BROADEN ONCE AGAIN LET'S WELCOME IN DAN GREENHOUSE. THE CHIEF STRATEGIST FOR SOLIS GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN. >> THANK YOU, SIR. >> IT'S BEEN REALLY A FANTASTIC THREE DAYS HERE. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS REBOUND? >> LISTEN, WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS AND ALL OF US ON THE SHOW HAVE TALKED ABOUT THIS FOR SOME TIME RECESSION WORRIES ARE LINGERING IN THE AIR THE LATEST THING ARE THE COMMENTS COMING OUT OF SOME CONFERENCES. YOU WERE AT ONE. THE REAL ESTATE CONFERENCE WHERE SOME FINANCIALS MADE SOME NEGATIVE COMMENTS. GAINED SOME PLAY BUT I THINK AT THE END OF THE DAY, MY FAVORITE SAYING, THE U.S. CONSUMERS CONTINUES TO DO WELL THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO DO WELL PROFITS CONTINUE TO PRINT ABOVE EXPECTATIONS SO WHILE WE HAD A MEANINGFUL SELL OFF DRIVEN BY SOME AI NAMES, THE REBOUND SEEMS JUSTIFIED BECAUSE IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THESE ISSUES ARE BROADENING OUT BEYOND WHAT WE'VE SEEN THELAST FEW QUARTERS. >> WHAT ABOUT THE REVERSAL YESTERDAY? THE PRICE ACTION IN THE MARKET WAS SO INTERESTING TO FOLLOW IF YOU HAD ONLY TUNED IN AT THE END OF THE DAY, OBVIOUSLY, YOU WOULD HAVE MISSED A PRETTY GOOD STORY. HERE WE ARE WEEK TO DATE, NASDAQ'S UP BETTER THAN 5% S&P'S UP ALMOST 3.5. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT >> I TOOK A LOOK EARLIER TODAY IT'S NOT UNUSUAL TO SEE A MARKET, AT ONE POINT DOWN A FULL PERCENTAGE POINT THEN CLOSE UP A FULL PERCENTAGE POINT. THAT'S NOT COMPLETELY UNUSUAL BUT IT IS ALSO THE TYPE OF THING THAT YOU SOMETIMES SEE AT MARKET BOTTOMS. YOU SAW IT IN OCTOBER OF '22 WHEN THE MARKET BOTTOMED YOU SAW IT AROUND THE TIME OF THE COVID LOW IN 2020. SAW IT BACK IN 2011. THERE'S A FEW NMORE INSTANCES WHERE IT OCCURRED. THOSE OF US THAT HAVE BEEN IN MARKETS FOR A WHILE YO, YOU LOOA THAT ACTION AND SAY OKAY, IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY AUTOMATICALLY MEAN CAPITULATION BUT THERE ARE INSTANCES WHERE THAT SIGNIFIES CAPITULATION AND IT'S POSSIBLE YESTERDAY WAS ONE OF THEM. >> IT'S THAT 5600 LEVEL THAT HERE WE ARE, HERE WE ARE AGAIN, ON THE S&P THAT'S SORT OF BEEN THE MAIN LINE IN THE SAND THAT WE'VE HAD A REASONABLY TOUGH TIME GETTING OVER >> YEAH. LISTEN, I MEAN, THE LATEST THING OF COURSE IS THE YIELD CURVE ON INVERTING AND AS A LONG STANDING CARD CARRYING MEMBER OF THE YIELD CURVE INVERSION MATTERS. TEAM ON THE SHOW IT'S OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO PAY ATTENTION TO THAT THE 210s CURVE IS IN POSITIVE TERRITORY ALTHOUGH NOT FIRMLY. CALL IT A COUPLE OF BASIS POINTS THREE, FOUR, FIVE. BUT THE CURVE INVASION IS THE LATEST THING THAT'S GIVING PEOPLE WORRY WHATEVER THE INVERSION MAY OR MAY NOT BE SAYING, YOU CAN COUNTER THAT BY LOOKING AT CREDIT SPREADS WHICH REMAIN FOR IG, BOTH WELL CONTAINED. I THINK YOU LOOK AT CROSS ASSETS AND YOU CONTINUE TO GET THE SAME MESSAGE WHICH IS THAT FOR NOW, EVERYTHING LOOKS A OKAY AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG THAT PATH >> DOES 50 OR 25 OR 50 BASIS POINTS MATTER AT THIS POINT? I MEAN, I ASKED YOU, I KNOW OBVIOUSLY WHERE EXPECTATIONS ARE. NOT JUST FROM MOST OF THE MARKET PARTICIPATES WE SPEAK TO, BUT EVEN CEOs. YOU MENTIONED THE CONFERENCE I WAS AT YESTERDAY SPOKE TO DAVID SOLOMON, CHAIRMAN CEO OF GOLDMAN SACHS IT WAS THEIR CONFERENCE. I WANT YOU TO LISTEN TO WHAT HE TOLD ME ABOUT WHAT HE THINKS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. >> OUR BEST GUESS IS 25 BUT I THINK THERE'S A CASE TO BE MADE FOR 50 BASED ON MORE SOFTENING OF THE LABOR MARKET. I THINK WE'LL SEE. I THINK THE PERCENTAGE CHANCE WAS IN THE LOW 30s >> SO HOW DO I HANDLE THAT SO 25 OBVIOUSLY LIKELY BUT THE CASE FOR 50 IMPLIES THAT 50 MIGHT BE NEEDED. HOW DO YOU SEE IT? >> WELL, LISTEN. I KNOW PLENTY OF PEOPLE IN MARKETS. INFORMED, EDUCATED, ASTUTE FOLLOWERS OF MARKETS IN ECONOMICS THAT THINK NO CASE THERE'S NO CASE FOR A RATE CUT AND THINK THE FED SHOULD STAY. I THINK THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE CONFUSING MOMENTS IN TIME FROM A PREDICTIVE STANDPOINT. AS I'VE SAID REPEATEDLY ON THE SHOW, I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO CUT BY 25 BASIS POINTS AND IT WILL BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL CUTS THE CASE FOR 50 IS THAT THE FED IS JUST TOO FAR BEHIND THE CURVE. INFLATION HAS NOW NORMALIZED YOU'RE SOMEWHERE IN THE MID TWOS AND WITH THE ECONOMY SLOWING DOWN, ALTHOUGH FROM A HIGH PACE IN THE END OF LAST YEAR, AND THE LABOR MARKET WEAKENING, THE FED IS LOOKING LIKE THEY ARE OFF SIDES. THIS IS THE 50 BASIS POINT ARGUMENT SO WHAT IS THE REASON TO GO SLOW TO GETTING BACK ONSIDES? YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO CUT BY 100 BASIS POINTS THERE'S VALIDITY TO THAT ARGUMENT AS I FIND IT IN MY OWN ARG ARGUMENT, WHICH IS THEY SHOULD REDUCE BY 25 BASIS POINTS AS THEY WOULD FOR STANDING PAT. AGAIN, I DON'T THINK THERE'S A CONCRETE CASE. THERE OFTEN IS, BUT I DON'T THINK THERE IS THIS TIME AROUND THAT THEY SHOULD CUT BY ANY ONE OF THESE THREE SCENARIOS WHEN YOU LOOK AT MARKETS, THE HOME BUILDERS, SOME OF THE RETAIL NAMES, A LOT OF THESE CYCLICAL PARTS OF THE STOCK MARKET ARE AT OR NEAR HIGHS AND I DON'T THINK THAT I SEE IN ASSETS ANY SORT OF BROAD, ECONOMIC WORRIES THE LIKES OF WHICH WOULD JUSTIFY A MORE RAPID PACE OF A RATE REDUCTION I CAN POINT TO ANY