Apple Intelligence isn't going to spawn a supercycle, says Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz

CLEARLY TRIEDERS CLINCHED FOR SOMETHING WORSE FOR THIS WEEK. ABLE TO RELAX JUST SLIGHT. THAT LEADS TO THE TALK OF THE TABLE. DID THE BRUTAL START PRICE TOO MUCH IN OR IS THIS A HEAD FAKE RELIEF WITH THE BURDEN OF PROOF FALLING ON THE SOFT LANDING BELIEVERS. WE ARE GOING TO DEBATE ALL THAT. WE FIRST TURN TO APPLE, WHICH JUST UNVEILED ITS LATEST GENERATION OF DEVICES BUILT FOR AI. LET'S BRING IN ADAM PARKER. STEVE IS ON SITE. LET'S START WITH YOU. YOU WENT IN THERE WITH YOUR CHECKLIST OF WHAT WE MIGHT GET IN TERMS OF DETAIL. WE NOW KNOW WHAT APPLE HAS UNVEILED. WERE THERE ANY SURPRISES? ANYTHING YOU FELT MAYBE YOU EXPECTED TO HEAR THAT YOU DIDN'T? >> THIS IS SOMETHING THAT APPLE IS CALLING VISUAL INTELLIGENCE. THIS IS GOING TO BE A UNIQUE FEATURE ON THE iPHONE 16 LINE UP THAT WAS JUST ANNOUNCED. GOING INTO TODAY, THAT WAS SOMETHING I WAS LOOKING FOR. IS THERE GOING TO BE A UNIQUE FEATURE YOU'LL ONLY GET ON THE iPHONE 16 AND NOT THE OLDER DEVICES? VISUAL INTELLIGENCE IS WHERE YOU CAN WHIP OUT YOUR CAMERA, TAKE A PICTURE OF SOMETHING IN THE REAL WORLD AND IT WILL GIVE YOU INFORMATION ABOUT IT. THE EXAMPLE APPLE DID WAS YOU TAKE A PICTURE OF A RESTAURANT T WILL SHOW YOU THEMEN EWE. THIS IS NOTHING NEW. WE HAVE SEEN SIMILAR TECHNOLOGIES FROM META, WHICH IS EMBEDDING IT IN THE RAY BAN GLASS. WE HAVE SEEN GOOGLE DO SOMETHING SIMILAR. NOTHING NEW, BUT NEW FOR APPLE. AND THEN THE OTHER THING I WOULD NOTE IS THIS STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN AFTER TODAY ABOUT THE ROLLOUT OF APPLE INTELLIGENCE AND WHEN WE'RE GOING TO SEE CERTAIN FEATURES. AFTER TODAY WE KNOW AFTER RECAP ING THE FEATURES THEY DID THREES MONTHS AGO OUT HERE BACK IN JUNE, THEY STILL DON'T HAVE A VERY STRICT TIMELINE FROM WHEN EVERYTHING IS GOING TO BE AVAILABLE. THEY SAID IT'S GOING TO BE ROLLING OUT OVER MONTHS. BUT THEY DID ANNOUNCE SOME NEW LANGUAGES THAT ARE COMING NEXT YEAR, INCLUDING CHINESE. THAT'S A VERY IMPORTANT ONE. APPLE LAUNCHING APPLE INTELLIGENCE OVER THERE IN CHINA WHERE CUSTOMERS TEND TO GRAVITATE TOWARDS THE LATEST AND GREATEST FEATURES, MAYBE EVEN MORE THAN THE U.S. AND CHINA IS UP TO A FIFTH OF APPLE SALES HAPPEN. THEY HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING RECENTLY. SO THEY STILL HAVE REGULATORY THINGS TO WORK OUT THERE, BUT VERY INTERESTING THAT THE IDEA THAT APPLE HAD FOR SOL KIND OF UNIQUE iPHONE 16 FEATURE WAS VISUAL INTELLIGENCE. WHETHER OR NOT THAT DRIVES UPGRADES, WE'LL FIND OUT. THAT'S THE IDEA THEY ARE PRESENTING TODAY. >> OBVIOUSLY, BIG QUESTION IN TERMS OF WHAT IT MEANS IN TERMS OF WHETHER IT MOVES THE NEEDLE ON THIS UPGRADE CYCLE. YOU HAVE PEOPLE SAYING THIS MIGHT FINALLY BE A CATALYST TO HAVE A LOT OF THAT OLDER BASE UPGRADE. WHAT DO YOU THINK IN TERMS OF WHAT YOU HEARD TODAY AT LEAST HAVING THESE DEVICES READY FOR WHAT'S COMING? >> ALL THE PEOPLE SAYING APPLE INTELLIGENCE IS GOING TO SPARK A SUPERCYCLE ARE WRONG. WE CAN CONFIRM THAT TODAY. SOME OF THESE PRODUCTS THAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT, VISUAL INTELLIGENCE, WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE LIKE STEVE MENTIONED WITH META, GOOGLE LENS. THIS IS A REHASH. WE ALSO KNOW A LOT OF THE APPLE INTELLIGENCE FEATURES, WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE UNTIL 2025. THE ONES THAT ARE GOING TO SHIP WITH THE NEW PHONES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE, I HAVE THE NEW IOS 18.1 ON MY PHONE. SO I HAVE SEEN THESE NOT NOTIFICATION SUMMARIES. AFTER WATCHING TODAY'S EVENT, THIS IS JUST GOING TO BE EVOLUTIONARY FOR APPLE. A TYPICAL UPGRADE CYCLE, WHICH IT REALLY NEEDED SOMETHING BIGGER BECAUSE WE HAVE SEEN SALES STAGNATION, WEAKNESS IN CHINA AND A SLOWING CONSUMER. THIS IS NOT GOING TO REALLY END UP REVERSING SOME OF THOSE FORCES THE WAY THAT APPLE FANS MIGHT HAVE HOPED. >> I KNOW YOU OWN THE STOCK. IT'S DOWN 1.25%. IT'S NOT THAT ATYPICAL OF A RELEASE DATE TYPE REACTION WHEN WE PRETTY MUCH HAD EXPECTATIONS BAKED IN. IF YOU HAD EXISTING iPHONE USERS WHO HAD JUST A GENERAL RELUCTANCE TO REUP TO THE NEW MODEL, BECAUSE WHO KNOWS WHAT'S COMING DOWN THE ROAD, IT WOULD SEEM AS IF THIS IS AT LEAST ONE FEWER ER IMPEDIMENT TO GETTING SOMEBODY TO REFRESH, CONSIDERING IT'S GOING TO BE EQUIPPED FOR WHATEVER AI OFFERINGS ARE OUT THERE. >> SURE. AND ALSO WE DON'T REALLY KNOW -- IT WILL BE PRETTY EXTENSIVE HOW MUCH REBATES OR BEHIND THE SCENES THAT AT&T VERIZON, THE OTHER U.S. CARRIERS DO, TO GET PEOPLE TO BUY THE iPHONE 16. BUT I THINK ALEX HIT IT SPOT ON. I LISTENED TO THE CALL. I OWN APPLE. IF YOU OWN THE QS, BUT I DO THINK THAT I FEEL OVER THE NEXT YEAR, THIS IS GOING TO BE INCREMENTAL, NOT EXPONENTIAL. WE HAVE THESE SUPER CYCLES, YOU HAD PEOPLE CAMPING OUT AT THE iPHONE STORE. YOU HAVE 1.56 BILLION PEOPLE BY THE END OF THE YEAR WILL HAVE AN iPHONE. WHEN I DISTILL IT DOWN TODAY, WHAT I HEAR IS APPLE FOCUSES ON SECURITY, HEALTH, MEMORIES, VIA THE PHONES AND THEN EFFICIENCY. I THINK THAT THIS AI WILL PUT THAT ALL ON HYPERDRIVE, WHICH IS GREAT. BUT I DON'T THINKS IT'S GOING TO YOU'RE GOING TO GET A STEP FUNCTION UP IN iPHONE SALES. THAT BEING SAID, I THINK THAT THE DURABILITY OF EARNINGS, THE SUSTAINABILITY OF EARNINGS, EVEN THE REVENUES ARE LOW SINGLE DIGITS, I DON'T THINK THE STOCK IS GOING TO BE A BIG OUTPERFORMER OR UNDERPERFORM.