Deep Dive: Texas Opponent Win Totals (SEC & Non-Conference Schedule)

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climbing under the Buddy bucks machine and getting enough change to buy whoever makes the best comment a subscription to Texas with the change I find underneath it I love it I love it yeah I I I was able to move back to Texas all I would do is go to Mega HBS and bies just every day I just drive back and forth that would be my commute so welcome back to the great state of Ian and we are going to celebrate your arrival back in the great state of Texas talking over under opponent win totals and we get to start off without any further Ado with the Colorado State Rams all of these win totals are set by FanDuel uh and we'll talk a little bit about some of the intricacies around the number as we go through them but this of course is the Texas schedule we start off with Colorado State August 31st in Austin Texas Vegas is setting their win total at 6 and a half uh Jay norell this is his third year in Fort Collins right up the road from me and first year they went three and N the next last year they went five- seven and then finally they're setting this win total at either six or seven wins in a 12-game schedule what do you got for the Rams Ian I went under on the Rams I going in I noticed their quarterback returns he's got one of those long hyphenated name so I don't remember what it is his top receiver niosi yeah that guy his top receiver is back that guy's been there forever like multiple thousand yard seasons he must be one of those guys that's like a 48 but knows how to get open you know well so actually let's I'll I'll uh I'll I'll correct you live stream here uh so Tory Horton is his name and he is an NFL receiver he's a 45 44 guy he's about 6'2 yep and Colorado State believe it or not for a G5 team despite their lack of success of late actually spends money on football and they want to be good they have good facilities and uh basically this guy Tory Horton is the best player on the team he's gonna be an NFL draft pick and he'll he is looking for his third consecutive thousand yard plus season quarterback Braden Fowler Nicolosi who was uh he's a Texas guy like like half the quarterbacks in the country he's from Texas but uh yeah they look like they might be pretty good on offense defense looks a little shaky so what are you thinking you're thinking it's a six- win team or like a four- win team are they G to vastly uh under sell or you think they're GNA just miss it I think they're going to hover right around that number I feel I feel a little bad about my under now knowing that their receivers uh that talented um their schedule's tough the Mountain West is tough there's a lot of programs out there that actually take football seriously they have like Fresno State is out there they're always loaded with receivers as well and quarterbacks just like that whole area that everybody gets a quarterback from Southern California from Texas they load up on skill Talent from from California from like or from Vegas or somewhere and um it just makes a competitive atmosphere so yeah I'm I'm under do you want to read the schedule uh sure yeah we don't have to go too in depth they they do uh open of course with Texas in Austin that point is around that that spread is around 36 36 and a half right now they host Northern Colorado and then the game of their season and they host the Colorado buffalo in Fort Collins they've not hosted them there in two decades it is going to be a huge game for them and this is actually one of those low-key under the radar rivalries that actually gets pretty intense uh so that I think is going to be the game that probably is going to be a key game of whether they go six and six or seven and five uh then they go to they host UTP they play Oregon State uh the disbanded Pack 12 is a betting that they host San Jose they go to Air Force always a really tough game coming to Colorado Springs for that one about 10 minutes from my house and then they host New Mexico Nevada Wyoming Fresno State and Utah State so I think their their games that are probably going to determine their season is going to be Colorado traveling to Air Force and then going to Fresno State uh I've got Texas comfortably penil in as an L so uh I think there's a shot for this to be a bowl team but I think you're right I think this is actually six and a half is correct I think they're somewhere between a six and seven- win team and I think how they do against Colorado might determine uh how they go I didn't find a ton of value in any of these maybe you'll disagree a lot of these are set very very well in my opinion Vegas is pretty good at what they do and uh I I have found some win loss uh predictions for totals I should say that I do disagree with I've already bet but that's a that's a discussion for another another show let's go to the Michigan Wolverines your old neck of the woods you are what 45 minutes away from Ann Arbor oh much closer oh okay never mind uh Michigan set at nine and a half defending national champions they obviously lose quite a bit they felt like every other name in the NFL draft in the first three rounds was a Michigan Wolverine they' still do bring back a bunch of Talent on defense uh they've got a new head coach and Chiron Moore this number is set at nine and a half and Ian if you go through their schedule there's really three games that are going to be a big challenge for them and this win total tells you sort of how you feel about it so uh I'm not going to go through all of their games but of course they do host Texas and and an arbor later they host Oregon in early November and then the end of the year they are traveling to Ohio State those are their three most losable games I I think games against Northwestern Indiana Etc I think they're going to be just fine uh what do you think about this Michigan win total so I had over I figured they had like seven gimmies and then they needed to find three wins from Texas USC and Oregon at home and Washington and Ohio State on the road and to me that seems doable so to me like nine and three 10- two and I would lean towards 10 and two yeah I think they're going to smack Washington I think Washington's going to fall off a cliff this year uh I I kind of have them penil in as a seven and five football team so I don't think they're gonna have any problem there I think USC could be interesting I just think they're too physical for USC so to me it's Texas Oregon Ohio State I think all three of those teams are better than Michigan probably this year but they Michigan gets to host two of them so on this one flip flip a coin I think they're going to go 9 and three or 10- two I I don't think there's any chance they're undefeated and I don't think there's any likelihood they go seven and five and have some sort of post Harbaugh disaster does that seem fair yeah this is the game also where I'd be looking for Dylan Gabriel's small stature and questionable cold weather abilities to show up because that game is uh when is that it's pretty late in the year right it's like November 2nd yeah November 2nd in Ann Arbor is almost almost always like 40s 50s and wet you imagine Dylan Gabriel in those conditions against this defense I I think that's win number 10 isn't 40s and 50s default wet sort of Oregon's weather for the winter as well yeah I I have a lot of question marks about Oregon and their they may have to go to Dante Moore sooner than they would think o well that may not go well for them if they do because I watched Dante Moore last year he justes he is the captain of the pick six all right UTSA Jeff trailer a guy that a lot of people are pulling for when they're not playing Texas uh he has built a great program at UTSA uh they're always relevant I think he's 39 and 14 in his time there which is really good they don't have Frank Harris anymore the doctor has graduated Ian uh they also lost their Frank Harris equivalent on defense a guy named Rashad wisdom who was a four-year starter at safety for them and sort of the quarterback of their defense however and they lost a guy named Trey Moore star pass rusher yep they lost Trey Moore to Texas they also lost their best cornerback to Oregon who's probably GNA start for them so had they kept more in this corner I think this would have been the best defense at UTSA the trailer has ever fielded however alas the G5 is now a developmental league for the P4 so uh they got plucked nonetheless UT UTSA Still's got some players they have a favorable schedule once they get through some of the big boys uh and let me give you an idea of what that is they are going to play kenesa State Texas state which actually be a very competitive game at Texas uh the hcu Huskies at East Carolina at Rice Florida Atlanta ANC Tom Herman at Tulsa Memphis which will be a good game they host Memphis in that one North Texas temple at Army and then they've got the potential American championship game I think they're going to start the year probably two- two three- two and I think there's a good chance they win their last I think they win their last six in a row I think there's a chance they win nine Ian what do you think I went over as well I noticed that they have a couple receivers back that were pretty good last year they have that guy uh Amador that play ended up playing quarterback for Northshore when Duncanville beat him a couple years ago I think they really Scout the state well they get a lot of guys who you're like oh I remember that guy from high school and maybe they were too small or not quite fast enough or something for big-time football but they can play and they also have Josh macau's kid Owen at quarterback now assuming he wins the battle which I think I'm pretty sure he is so it makes me nervous that Frank that trailer I don't know if he's ever coached UTSA without Frank Harris at quarterback maybe year one well he has only when Frank Harris has been injured so that makes me a little nervous but I'm just I'm betting on trailer I'm betting on what they've been up to out there and I'm going over all right this next team my recommendation to you is this this is team you will not want to bet on uh unless you're fading them hard in 2024 that's Louisiana Monroe uh they finally fired Terry Bowen yes Terry Bowen was still somehow convincing someone to give him a paycheck they fired him this program has been moraband ever since coming to FBS back in 94 they've had one bowl in their entire history uh I think they've had two maybe three winning seasons in the last 30 years their win total set at one and a half now In fairness that number is set to be exceeded at at FanDuel meaning it's it's like minus 150 I don't know what it is if you take the under you actually get plus money Ian I think I would actually bet the under here I think Louisiana Monroe is going to go one and 11 and the reason is what talent they had from a two and10 team and by the way they lost 10 games in a row to close out the year the best talent they had was all rated in the portal so they are basically going to stock their roster with a bunch of last-second Joo Replacements and then a few guys who weren't good enough to go in the portal this is going to be one of the worst football teams in America we're gonna see at least a half of arch Manning yeah I I have nothing to add I looked at the schedule I was like one and a half and I looked at the schedule and I was like I'm not I wouldn't want to bet over against that yeah yeah hey to give you a little idea how bad they've been I hopefully you'll get a kick out of this in their media guide which I was researching writing of course my thinking Texas football preview should be coming out in a couple weeks uh big news breaking that's right breaking news uh they have a season in their media guide called the season of magic El Monroe and the season of magic was back in 2012 when they went eight and5 and they lost a bowl game 45 to4 to Ohio not Ohio State the Ohio Bobcats in Athens Ohio so that gives you a little bit of context of Louisiana Monroe and what we're dealing with at that program uh tough deal to be a Louisana Monroe Warhawk all right can't wait for that chapter talk to me about Mississippi State yeah that chapter is very sarcastic uh but uh talk to me about Mississippi State Bulldogs and Jeff lebby I like I kind of like the Bulldogs um but I can't go over because their schedule is brutal yes it is they have Blake shapen who I think is quite good we've talked about that they got a receiver from the G5 ranks who's pretty good they had some other receivers around from The Mike Leech era so they're not like um it's not like when Mike Leech took over for Dan Mullen and it was a team just built around running the quarterback 15 times a game to win um they've been kind of overhauled for the spread so I I I like lebby there but their schedule is just I I'll I'll give you just a few Snippets of the schedule they've got their non-conference includes at Arizona State in Toledo the other two are basically gimmies they have at Tex at Georgia at Tennessee at Miss is their Road and their home slate is Missouri Arkansas Texas A&M and Florida so so their season upside is they've got to beat Arkansas they've got to beat Florida and they've got to upset A&M or Missouri at home Fair that's how they exceed expectations or Texas yeah well they Texas they play and Austin and I don't I don't I don't like that matchup for them very much they it's a at least it's a favorable time of year almost well maybe not actually I think they get Texas after that uh after that ULM game don't they yeah and and two weeks before Oklahoma yeah so yeah yeah that's a tough yeah tough Ro tough deal for them all around um I mean I don't think a lot of people realize or remember that last year was kind of supposed to be Mississippi state's Darkhorse year they had a bunch of seniors a bun of bunch of fifth and sixth year players but of course Mike Leech tragically died rip Mike and then they hire the defensive coordinator Arnette as the replacement and he defensive coordinators up the head coaching job he decides to go we're gonna you know we've got this team built around the spread in the air raid and we're g to run the ball and we're gonna play you know three yards in a cloud of dust and he just destroyed everything to include the defense that he was in charge of so just a shame for them uh but I do think there's some light at the end of the Tuttle maybe for these guys in the sense that lebby does seem to know what he wants he's recruiting pretty well and like any SEC school they got some fans that are into the program and they'll Pony up some nil there's another team like that Ian that's Oklahoma Sooners their number set at seven and a half talking about schedules that back half of the sooner schedule ain't kind and of course they play Texas and Dallas what do what do you think about the Sooners I'm rolling I got to stay on brand I'm under for Oklahoma and you're predicting them to go under like they're going to go four and eight three and nine no they have a honestly they have probably like a six- win floor five or six win floor uh bar I mean they're goingon to win four games if they don't win their four non-conference games then their season is going to be just historic trash hey tell the people they're non-c cons yeah they are going to Open Temple then they get Houston at home to Lane at home you remember that Houston just hired to Lane's head coach so both the programs are in uh upheaval and then they get the main black bears on November 2nd as an SEC Buy in the middle of their schedule which will be very welcome I think yeah uh of those four two lane is the only one with the uh they actually are going to be decent even though they they hired the the uh coach from Troy who's actually a good football coach as a replacement uh and they they kept a little bit of their their talent but that's a very friendly noncon so I think you can pencil them in for four and0 there so the thought is can they go four and four in the SEC and win eight right that's really what we're asking yes their SEC schedule is tough they play Texas they play uh Tennessee they play Alabama who else are they playing it in order it goes Tennessee at Auburn Texas South Carolina at Miss at Missouri Alabama at LSU okay those are all very losable games I think they can beat LSU I think that I think their season upside is going to be not getting ambushed by Auburn on the road they got to take care of business there and then they got to find a way to upset someone so yeah I'm torn on this one I could see eight and four I I could see that uh it's man beaten boo just needs to be a miracle worker with that offensive line and Jackson Arnold needs to be the guy that they think he is if he is I think they can go eight and four I I think it's a yeah it's a health play if they are healthy on the line and at quarterback they could they could probably pull it off yeah cuz I I I like their defense in total and I really like their safeties I love Bowen and Bowman and I think they can be some guys that uh could Elevate them a little bit on defense from what we've seen all right talk to me about the Georgia Bulldogs this is a team where they're going to be favored in every game they play Ian so Vegas and FanDuel set it at 10 and a half but a fitting introduction for for Georgia I want to talk to you about a guy who's favored in every transaction he engages with on your behalf and that's Gabe winow he is going to go undefeated for you if you dial 83255 71095 you don't need any ly you don't need any spread he's going to play the lenders straight up and he's gonna dominate them he's gonna own them at the end of the day you're gonna have your house and you're gonna have a great deal give him a call uh 20 years in the industry lifetime Longhorn he loves helping people out he's licensed of course anywhere in the great state of Texas but he's also licensed in several several other states so even if you're not in Texas give him a call he's licensed in Colorado hint hint all right give him a call 832 55710 95 now let's go from one great individual to one potentially great team that's Georgia their number set at 10 and a half I'll bury the lead here and and just tell you if I have to choose gut to my head I think they're going 11 and one tough they don't have an easy schedule but I think they're going to be really good they let me just read the schedule because this one is gonna be this is I think one of the toughest ones they open with Clemson in h Atlanta I Ain scared I actually think that's like an a gimme almost I'm I'm way down on Clemson I think they are gone there it's over Tennessee Tech okay good at Kentucky at Alabama Auburn Mississippi State at Texas Florida at Miss Tennessee UMass Georgia Tech they that's a lot of wins for sure but the way I figured it they cannot lose more than one of at Kentucky at Bama at Texas at Old Miss Auburn and Tennessee those are games that I've circled as being potentially losable and to to run that without more than one loss to me that's tough especially Paul in this playoff era there's a lot less incentive to try to win all those games yeah you know Kirby Smart has been pretty much at the Forefront of resting his guys and platooning them through the whole season and sort of playing with the end in mind right title game playoff games so do you want to win all your games yes will you do things to preserve the better the health of your team so that you're peaking in December and January yes so that is something that works against you we're not going to see NFL style let's rest our starters last game of the year if you've got the SEC title game birth wrapped up but it does it does diminish a little of the urgency right for Perfection and uh that could work against me but I just think they're really complete Ian I think it's a hard team to play for four quarters and come out on top I think the team with the best chance is Texas and then from a matchup standpoint I actually think Tennessee could give give them a little bit of problem so we'll see it could be um well they I think they have some of their good defensive backs back so I don't know about I don't know if I'm going to buy Tennessee one more note though on the on the incentives if you are if you miss the SEC Championship game but you can lock up like the top at large seed and you're number five yeah then you're gonna open probably with liberty in the first round and then the second round you're going to get the big 12 Champion there's value in that there's no doubt uh you and I are going to have to do the math on the value of that easy setup versus is having to play an extra game which has an inherent injury risk right we got to do the math on that sometime and figure out what that is but it the math changes if you're talking about trying to make the SEC Championship game because then the ex because then you're not getting you're not missing an extra game the extra game is the SEC title so it's like do you want to go to the SEC title in order for a shot at the number one or number two overall seed when if you miss if you miss the SEC title game then you could go for the five seed and the easy path yeah interesting permutations because you also don't know how to handicap how the SEC title game loser is going to be treated uh I think I mean to me a sophisticated committee doesn't penalize you for losing the SEC title game against likely the number one seed they probably plug you in at that five seed or at least you have a debate so we'll see all this stuff is we don't know what's going to happen but we're kind of trying to war game it in in anticipation let's talk about Vandy uh they got a player who I absolutely love from New Mexico State quarterback Diego Pavia he is I'm not sure I could call him a great player but he is a very competitive player and he is a winner uh and he's kind of The Feisty guy that a program like Vandy needs that said they really disappointed last year and are they going to struggle to exceed two and a half I think they can go three and nine but uh I guess that's damning them with faint praise right yeah I mean that that line is bait they have uh they open Virginia Tech alorn State and at Georgia State they gotta get two wins out of those three then they get Ball State later oh okay so I I'm comfortable now they so they can win three of their non-c cons Virginia sack will beat them uh they can win three of their non-c cons and all they need is one upset in the SEC and they're they not only do they make that number they make it with distance right yeah yeah it's tough it because they everybody poaches their roster every year yep and uh yeah I think I'm with you I think it's over but it it feels like you're just like trying to trying to grab the cheese out of the mouse trrap all right very quickly I think everyone has talked about Florida and the incredibly hard schedule they have it's the hardest schedule in college football some people have dug in and said it's the hardest schedule in the last two decades of college football uh Billy Napier obviously fighting for his job this number is from FanDuel you can actually find five and a halfs out there and of course you get a Juiced if if you exceed that you'll get a Juiced payout uh I think Florida's gonna go five and S but I think their key bellweather game is going to be when they open with Miami and then I think they also have a pretty key game later when they play Kentucky I think that'll probably determine a lot of their season outcome what do you think Ian I would go over unless I knew that Napier was gonna pull the plug early and just play DJ lague for the excitement and the hype yep in order to preserve his job because I mean there's an argument to make it's like if I'm going to get fired after this season if I don't go like what what does he need to do to not be fired six wins seven wins seven would keep his job for sure so if it's like if I have to beat you know Georgia and Alabama or something crazy just to get to seven maybe my path to job preservation is just to play this exciting freshman lose games but be like hey but don't you want to hang on to this guy and not see him enter the transfer portal don't you want to keep me around to develop this guy so that would be I think that's the if you think that that's going to happen and that's the under bat and maybe you would wait for like that Miami game right maybe you would wait for week one and if they beat Miami if they lose to Miami you immediately just take the under because you're like he's gonna bail on this season interesting very interesting all right let's talk about another coach just like Billy Napier he's fighting for his job he would have been fired last year Ian if Arkansas had the money to do it that's that's Sam Pitman they went four and eight last year I believe this win total set at four and a half a little bit like Florida you can actually find a five and a half number or a five number at other books um I think they have a good shot at five and seven they really have upgraded at quarterback by adding ton Green from Boise State they actually have a good defensive line kind of on the down low they just have problems on the offensive line and problems at defensive back and in modern football Ian those are not two position groups where you want to have deficiencies even if you've Got Talent at the skills slots uh what do we think about the Arkansas Razer backs and uh they're laying in weight obviously for Texas and fville yeah I'm over on four and a half but if I had the five and a half I would not be very comfortable with it I mean it's like you said you you can imagine them like good defensive line strong defense and then a quarterback that can run the ball you could see them building a winning formula that can scratch out some close wins but it's tough it's a it's a bad schedule yeah I think they're going to be a five and seven football team and I think they're going to have some decisions to make after the season I think they could go six and six and and quote unquote surprise uh we'll see hey let's talk about Kentucky I think one of the things that Texas fans will have to get used to is the middle class of the SEC they might be a seven and five team but they're gonna have four or five dudes who are G to get drafted and they're going to have a couple of dudes on the field who are better than the guy that you've got lining up across from them sometimes considerably better that's Kentucky this year they have a an interior defensive tackle who's going to be a top five top 10 draft pick he's a dominant player uh they always have some Defenders they've always got some players uh they got a tough schedule I feel like we're saying that about every SEC about except maybe the last one we're going to talk about yeah what do you think about Kentucky and Stoops I'll say this about Stoops at in Lexington he's got a high floor and the ceiling is about an inch and a half above the floor you there's there's no ceiling but the floor is pretty high is that is this going to be another seven and5 Kentucky team or are they GNA slip back because of that schedule I yeah I went over I think there'll be seven or eight wins maybe nine just depending on how that quarterback transfer Brock Vandergriff goes because they have a couple receivers that can really go and uh they've been having like they they changed their strategy this year from instead of grabbing a solid G5 quarterback to come in and manage the offense they brought a former like Blue Chip guy that couldn't start at Georgia yep so if that like Talent risk play pans out and it turns out Vandergriff is really talented throwing the ball and they can sight get those receivers sighted up for him I mean they could be really good they could be nine or 10 wins let me give you the winnable games very quickly Ian yeah Southern Miss South Carolina Ohio Vandy yeah Auburn Florida I think they'll probably split those two Murray State and then finally Louisville hey fun fact they beaten Louisville five in a row so uh and they did last year in a big upset so time to take a medum break Ian you don't have to take a media break you're an adult you're a grown man uh I I think they're going to be seven and five Ian I think when the dust settles so I I agree with you buddy all right let's talk about the Texas A&M Aggies we talked about these brutal SEC schedules that that dominate not only the Texas schedule as we're looking at but also their opponents A&M not so much man and the good teams they play they get to host them in College Station uh what do we think I think you and I have similar feelings about this A&M team that they could be surprisingly competent and decent but they need to they need some good luck with respect to injuries talk to me about the ales so I I had them as likely to win five games and then needing to get uh four from Notre Dame at Florida Arkansas Missouri LSU at Auburn and Texas yep that's a lot maybe that's not a super clear I kind of think they're going to beat Notre Dame in week one Notre Dame has I hope not I've got money on the Irish and the under Notre Dame is replacing both their tackles they went to the NFL yep they have a new offensive line Co well he's been this is year two I've been corrected year two of this offensive line coach um the the legendary Harry he is gone um Plus plugging in Riley Leonard who had to miss spring practice which I think hurts a little bit the quarterback and A&M is just loaded on the defensive line so I and M Mike Elco is back it's very easy for me to see Elco just kind of blitzing and destroying that Notre Dame line in week one and short circuiting their offense and then A&M writing that to a a victory yeah I think they've got a favorable schedule I mean their toughest games are Missouri LSU and Texas and Notre Dame and they host all freaking four I mean that's pretty unbelievable so even if they can split that in College Station which I don't think is crazy or unreasonable uh they can take care of business in the rest of their schedule uh other than Notre Dame they've done they've learned the SEC non-con scheduling of getting you know New Mexico state and MCN and games like that I mean these are literally automatic L's so uh they really need to just not get tripped up against the floridas against the the South Carolinas those kind of games they just need to go handle business and I don't think they'll do it in super impressive fashion I think you know I think they'll beat South Carolina 2720 but uh I think a W's a W and they're trying to go nine and three and I think that would be a huge year for Texas A&M I don't see any ceiling past that but I also think their floor is a little higher than people think what do you think final word maybe they could get to 10 just because the schedule um they really need their own offensive line is is pretty iffy so eight or nine guys I guess the the smart bet would just be always bet against A&M right always bet them to just slightly missed the mark and I'm sure that's what five people will say in the comments but uh they really are a potentially formidable looking Team all right well folks that has been the Texas opponent win totals that has been Ian Boyd he is a sooner hater and an Aggie lover let him know in the comments how you feel about that and please like And subscribe our videos and certainly subscribe to the YouTube channel go to I go to inside texas.com a buck gets you two months with it1 promo code and then finally if you're listening on Spotify or apple uh just write a nice review give us five stars let us know what you like and uh we'll see you guys next week this has been the Deep dive y'all take care