Deep Dive: Factors For An Undefeated Texas Longhorns Football Team

Spread and O/U Factors welcome back to the Deep dive your favorite show on inside Texas where we delve into the depths of ephemera and random things that Ian and I find of Interest Ian how you doing today buddy doing good I'm excited for our Deep dive today on Liberty Hill and their slotty offense that's it we're gonna spend a good hour and a half just breaking it down diagram after diagram actually that would be fun but we're not going to do that we're three days from kickoff man with 72 hours and we're going to watch some Texas Longhorns football uh I'm wearing my Rocky Mountain National Park hat in honor of the Colorado State Rams who will be the sacrificial Rams for the Longhorns on Saturday we hope what we need you guys to do is like our video and help us climb to 10,000 subscribers we're almost there and after 10,000 as Ian has said we're headed to a million also visit insidetexas.com for the best practice reports recruiting updates and Analysis that you'll find and now more than ever it's fortuitous to go there why because you can go there for almost nothing use promo code kickoff 24 and things are about to kick off in your life you're about to get some serious knowledge dropped off on you if you and you join our community it's 50% off for annual memberships join inside Texas today there's some urgency around this this thing is going away before the kickoff uh against Colorado State in fact it's going away on Friday so join now and if you're already joined go get a friend go get a family member give a early Christmas gift they will thank you for it particularly if they're a DieHard Longhorn who wants to be in the no and if you want to be in the no about the Colorado State Rams and Texas matchup let's talk a little bit about the line and the over under on this Ian right now we are looking at uh minus 31 a half the over under is 59 and a half if you're not familiar with betting parlons the over under is the team totals added together and they're basically saying if you want to bet the over on 59 and a half you could take that bet or you could take the under on 59 and a half and there's of course different ways you can get there I'm curious on your thoughts about this spread Ian do you think this is an accurate reflection of the two teams or or what do you think it depends upon it's moved some right so it opened like Texas minus 36 or something like that it has um almost seems like an indication of a smart public to Edge that down Texas plays Michigan next week sarc is kind of notorious for sandbagging some of these games and just like get the win pull away maybe in time to get the backups in he's not going on like 60 points per game Rampages like Bob Stoops did when he stole Texas's spot in the Big 12 championship game in 2008 right so um I think this is a a smart reflection of the fact that that Texas doesn't need they don't have a lot to prove in this game new playoff format I don't think style points matter as much yeah I I I think that's probably accurate I'm not sure if this is a reflection of the public or a few Sharps attacking that line but what I do know is this whether or not we cover it I think is not just dependent upon what we show but also what we allow the second team to do and specifically I think a lot of us would like to see when we put in Arch Manning when we put in a second team group of receivers which has some real physical freaks we got Wingo niblet out there you're gonna have jonte cook out there uh if we let them run the offense and Arch Manning gets to throw the ball around I don't think Texas has to show everything or even show much to to pull away late and or to keep a margin of victory uh in this game and I think that's a little different from despite the all all gas no breaks marketing that we like to do as a program sarc has yeah kind of put it on cruise control more than a few times against lesser opponents you know think back to Baylor last year 28 to six at halftime and then you kind of Slumber through the second half and it's 38 to6 if you put in Arch Manning as he currently is uh right now and you had let him throw to Wingo on a fade route if that's what the re is uh that that score is going to be 52 to6 against Baylor so I I'm curious about what that looks like and also on defense if you're trying to avoid a backdoor cover against a pretty competent air raid passing team as Colorado state is kind of helps to bring guys like Vosk or Colin Simmons Off the Bench late and say go get the passer these are good points you know what else is uh as to that point is the fact that because Texas has these super talented young guys they have a lot of incentive to try to let them go get theirs and get stats and stay happy and stay engaged and uh so it's possible that SAR goes about his normal I don't care about scoring a ton of points in this game but then he does just because the second team has so many Elite gamechanging athletes that he he allows that to to play out yeah you're star freshman wide receiver feels a lot differently about that game if he has four catches for 65 yards and a touchdown in the second half versus uh he did some run blocking in the fourth quarter when he came in so I think that's something to consider the portal enters into this you want to get guys real meaningful reps early and often uh and and obviously like run your offense I don't think you're distribut I don't think you're displaying poor sportsmanship if you're second and third Team guys are just playing football I mean I think they're entitled to do that let's talk about the is does 59 and a half look about right what's your instinct on this it does I I do think that it's going to come down to second team third team disposition again though because uh Colorado state they're not goingon to employ the underdog strategy of run the ball control the clock shorten the game because they can't yep not because that's just their their offense they don't have the guys for that they don't have the for that they don't have the Run game for that they need to come in and make it a high variance game and throw the ball around so you're G to end up with all these possessions for Texas potentially maybe three and outs or quick scores to give the ball back to Texas and then it's like you know are they gonna refuse to throw it deep to wingo and also like can they tackle Trey Weisner can they tackle Jared Gibson and keep him out of the end zone can they can they catch Colin paage in the open field right so uh it's it's risk that number feels right I would be I would probably go under but I would feel real antsy about it up to yeah the problem with this is Texas can play really well on both sides of the ball and hit that under right you can win this 52 to7 and you know it's you know my instinct for this game was like around 4513 so I think this line is more in line with what it should look like as just sort of a likely probability if you played this game a hundred times uh plus 36 I was probably gonna have to bet Colorado State as as much as I hate to admit that uh so I'm glad I don't have to do that I don't think this is a bet until it gets under 31 I wouldn't feel comfortable but uh you know I we're not necessarily trying to give you the best bets on Deep dive but if we happen to give you some thoughts and you act you act upon them uh great we hope it's profitable hey you know Ian we spend a lot of time talking about ways that things could go wrong or things were're concerned about or inadequacies or weaknesses in the Texas program that need to be addressed in a second I want to talk about what things went right if Texas has a phenomenal year and goes undefeated in the regular season and sets themselves up for the SEC title game game for the SEC Championship but before I do that I want to talk about betting one more time I want to talk about your best bet if you're getting a home mortgage in the great state of Texas or in several other states in which this gentleman is licensed that guy is Gabe Winslow he is a huge supporter of this podcast he is a huge supporter of this YouTube show he's a huge supporter of Texas and inside Texas you can reach him at 83255 71095 why should you call Gabe well he's got 20 years of Industry experience he's got a law degree really sharp guy former National Merit scholar and he loves to solve problems for his clients he is a broker that means he can go to 70 different lenders and have them bid against each other for the best possible rate for you that is very different from going to Chase or Wells Fargo or any of those places God help you if that's where you get your mortgage because they have exactly one conduit for your loan and you're not going to get any competition so we think competition is good Ian and we want you to call Gabe winow he's going to take care of you and treat you right 832 55710 95 we talked about things going right with Gabe Winslow let's talk about what things are going to go right if Texas has a spectacular season so this is GNA be happy Ian optimistic Ian this is going to be positive Paul uh you know it's Wednesday we're entitled we're supposed to be kind of on the high right now and uh I guess we'll we'll start having concerns like around Friday night or something like that but no I I had a dream last night where Texas lost an opener against rice and then and then I already talked about this in live and then Quin ERS threw Arch Manning under the bus for misplaying a punt because because archers are turning punts for some reason you have a very Vivid Vivid dream life well this is that's more of a nightmare we're looking at the dream of a 12-0 season so what things need to go right for the University of Texas to fulfill that quest for Perfection first I think we're gonna have to see some improvements in the secondary is the potential there for Improved Secondary that Ian yep awesome Ian maybe you expound upon that for everyone um I I think J Baron the cornerback is a really big deal I think that I was just arguing with this about this with Homer he got a really bad rap for last year Baron did and uh it is my belief that he is actually a very very good Corner he's been used as nickel because he could impact the game uh a little more there and they had a lot of depth at cornerback um he's like the perfect Terry Joseph pupil because Terry Joseph is really loves to teach guys how to anticipate things and try to make big game-changing plays and baron has an amazing mind for it in the quickness and ball skills to execute that I think Baron could have a great year a corner we all believe Malik Muhammad is a potential NFL guy at corner Gilbo emerging at nickel to allow Baron to move means they have three good coverage Guys across the board safety they have they had last year they went in of the season with like three good but not great athlete smart good tackler kind of guys rotating between Taff jiren Thompson and Jaylen catalon now they're down to one of those guys and they can play an upside athlete next to him with makuba or Derrick Williams just overall I love the fit of these guys next to each other I love the tal the improved Talent level and I I think the coverage could be just world's different yeah you know physical talent and absolute freaks in your secondary always preferable and Texas is going to have good athleticism back there field IQ counts for a lot and I think we learned that last year the hard way a couple of times and I'll tell you what old Pete kakowski I think he feels a lot more comfortable pushing the edge on some of his game planning when he feels like the secondary is not going to betray him in some of the things that he does so I think for Texas to reach its full upside this 12-0 uh projection you need to see that secondary hit next we want to switch the other side of the 12-0 Ewers/Passing Game ball Ian let's talk about another way that Texas needs to level up and we saw a substantial level up from 2022 to 2023 both from Quinn ERS and the broader passing game does ERS still have meat left on the developmental bone going into 2024 y yeah I honestly I think quarterbacks I mean you see this in the NFL where guys are improving into their 30s if you the reason a lot of these guys are playing so long now is because it's such a developmental skill intensive and mental position it's like if your body can hold up long enough for you to maintain Peak athletic performance into your late 30s then you can continue to improve at quarterback so absolutely a how old is he 21 year old he's there's a lot lot of meat left on that bone yeah for sure and and just to remember as a quick shorthand statistically he went from 7.4 yards per attempt in 2022 to 8.75 almost full 8.8 that's that's a massive Improvement in terms of ethicacy uh his completion percentage went from 58 uh to the mid-60s I still think he can level up in a bunch of different areas we've talked about those let's talk about the passing game more Broad people tend to look at the receivers and they should that's a very important component but you know what also matters in your passing game the quality of your offensive line the pass protectors the quality of your play calling your your designer uh your tight ends your running backs can all those guys catch the ball can they all create opportunity for you and the receivers of course absolutely matter but there's a larger ecosystem that has to function around the quarterback for you to really level up in a passing game does Texas have that yeah here's here's a here's a little subtle one that could end up mattering a lot um improved tight end blocking and Max protection sarc loves to use max protection which means seven or eight guys blocking and only only two to three guys running out on routes um that involves blocking the perimeter with your running back and tight ends and you go watch some of the hits that ERS has taken I this is a funny thing I got to get a a sooner jab in I keep seeing the Oklahoma Sooner fans talk about how Texas's tackles are totally overrated and Ethan DS ate their lunch and got all these hits if you go watch that came usually on the tight ends often hobbled JT Sanders hobble JT Sanders got ERS lit up once or twice in the Oklahoma game and against Houston I think he separated his shoulder on a play exactly like that um if you get a better I mean you just take those out that's a total game changer for the entire season you get maybe one or two more deep shots that you land and you get maybe one or two more games out of Quinn you know yeah I think Juan Davis is the guy that the coaches have really talked up in that regard and I think Helm has a potential to level up in that regard Helm was guilty of a couple of those lightups uh I even recall back in the Alamo bile against Washington Helm was responsible for a couple of big hits on ERS uh bril and Trice kind of ran through them uh Hey that happens and players get older they get stronger they get more mature they get better technique uh I love those Max protect shots because they often are he's calling them because he saw something in the coverage and yeah there may only be two or three guys on the route there's actually only one guy running the real route and the other two guys are clearing or doing something else uh Sark seees something and if you can hit that it's often uh we're going to fire the cannon and play the school song so those things are important definitely a subtle thing I think Juan Davis and Gunner Helm are gonna help us in that guard maybe not Amari nlack quite as much but hey you can get in someone's way we'll take it uh enough time to get that shot off uh the other part that I think is useful is we mentioned three three different tight end options all of them are at least capable pass catchers Amari nlack maybe like have some real potential as a as a game breaker uh particularly if you could play him with his hand down in 12 personnel and you lure the other team to put in their base defense Amari iblack is gonna have a very favorable matchup and I think coach Williams pointed out in one of his videos that when you watch Amari nblack coming out of his stance and you watch him next to the Texas receivers they're even at five and 10 yards uh sorry the Alabama receivers uh they're even at five and 10 yards coming out of their break uh meaning Amar I is real fast and he's quick off the ball so if you're a linebacker and you get tasked with that guy on on a deep route or a post or something like that pack your lunch you better get a good Jam at the line of scrimmage or you better have something happen because it may not go well for you other part all of the Texas running backs even though we've had some injuries in that room Weisner uh blue even jerck Gibson all plus pass catchers I I would argue blue and Weisner are possibly Elite pass catchers as running backs that's very helpful and then of course the receivers themselves we don't know truly how they're going to perform for Texas but these guys are not completely new to the party we we know what Isaiah Bond can do do we know certainly what Balin can do at Oregon State we have even more respect for that guy after watching dju against Georgia Tech right knowing he was his quarterback uh these guys can do stuff Matthew golden when he's healthy as a true freshman and a true sophomore he scored 15 touchdowns while missing several games as a Houston Cougar that guy is not just a kick returner if that's the impression that Texas fans have and then we've got the freak Show of guys like Wingo niblet of course jont cook has a lot of potential uh we've got some options here to level up so if we go 12-0 it's a probably a good bet that Quin ERS and this larger passing game including that offensive line leveled up with him yeah we've been talking a lot about Red Zone efficiency which is where being a lot better in the passing game probably mostly on Quinn's part yep could be big but um Texas can and I think will double down on play action this year and just taking shots there's a lot of meat left on that bone yep there's no reason that they couldn't ma Jones average you so you said Quinn was up to like 8.5 yards per attemp seven8 eight8 seven M Jones is 112 yeah that's like ridiculous but that's that's what happens when you have a dominant play action game that's what it looks like in the modern game so I that's that'd be a big level up but I mean that's what but if they're 12 and0 then it then yours is probably at 10 certainly in the nines yeah there's no doubt about that the nines for sure yeah another thing we want to talk about is back on the other side of Aggressive Defensive Gameplanning the ball if Texas goes 12-0 I think that we saw more aggressive defensive game planning and what we mean by that is does Texas go into games against an opponent who is right-handed and from the first snap of the ball we say we're taking away your right hand show us that you can beat us with your left hand that's not something Pete Kowski does a lot he has done some of those things at Texas so I'm not trying to generalize but as a generalization uh I don't think we kind of run our stuff and we try to improve what we do more than game plan specifically for the opponent I think that there's some ripe opportunities for this on our schedule Michigan not to look ahead I think might present an opportunity here but I also think Pete and his defense will feel a lot better about this sort of thing or this approach with some help perhaps provided by Johnny nanson and Scotty Hazelton in consultation but also trusting that secondary Point number one it's a lot easier to try stuff up front or outnumber the box or really be aggressive with an extra man coming down late when you trust your secondary not to bust coverages or they have the athletic ability to run and cover what do you think about aggressive defensive game planning and and where Texas can level up in this regard yeah I think to win rivalry games and postseason games in particular you have to you have to play this way I call it matchup ball when I write about it on my substack americaas War game. substack do.com match up ball means means you overplay the matchups in a big game so like like Bill bich che's famous thing that he would do some that everyone always praised as genius rightly so was he would double team an opposing squad's best receiver but then save save his best corner and then play them in man on their second best receiver exactly now that's like another level of it consistently doubling the other team's best receiver is more sophisticated than a lot of college game plans are week to week you do see it some but it's not it's not even consistent that teams will do that um and uh you would like to see it more in some of these big games especially like Oklahoma the way they thing is going they may only have one receiver that really scares you please just double that guy Michigan we're going to talk about that the way the Michigan beats you as they run the ball sell out to stop the run that week um yeah I bet you have other examples in mind too yeah I mean I I was a big proponent of the with the time prep that we had before the playoff game against Washington of really exploring the idea of maybe a three-man defensive line and playing a dime and just telling Washington hey we understand you can really throw football just from sheer outnumbering you we're going to make that difficult for you show us that you can run the ball on tandre sweat and Byron Murphy even outnumbered we kind of like our chances there they went the other way they're like let's mix in more Camp man coverage this week the week that we're playing these NFL receivers yeah it's kind of like the old quote you want it one way but it's the other way and I think that that's kind of what we did and probably not our best game planning ever but uh I think there's an opportunity for improvement there and I do think that Pete Kowski does have some help he has some staff help and I think he also has maybe a secondary a little higher IQ and has the experience you know makuba is what started 30 something games in college football Michael Taff is now a pretty experienced player uh Manny Muhammad got blooded last year uh Jay Baron very smart player and then Jaylen Gilbo man it's amazing to think that so much of our upside on defense in different ways may just rest on this guy allowing us to play our best five and also at the positions we want to play them yeah he's been that's an emphatic agreement for me and Boyd right there man I I feel good I'm gonna Pat myself on back I mean you were just talking about all that high IQ across the unit and then you got to Gilbo who had some low IQ issues early in his career but by all accounts has had outstanding offseason and I I'm I'm excited to watch him play whenever he's played in games and looked confident he's been like usually an eye-catching playmaker well here's the call back we're playing the Colorado State Rams if you've been listening to any of our content or more importantly reading our content on inside Texas and you can use kick off 24 to go join right now at 50% off on an annual rate you know that Colorado State loves to throw the ball and they love to Target the nickel they love to Target the middle of the field Jaylen Gilbo is going to get a workout and we're going to find out some stuff about that young man in about 72 hours Ian so yeah for Ian Boyd I am Paul wadlington saying thank you for joining the Deep dive we'll see you soon