Ja’Marr Chase holdout; positive/negative regression candidates | Rotoworld Football Show (FULL SHOW)

hello everybody Welcome to the rotor football show I am Patrick Dy joined by Denny Carter on Tuesday September 3rd it's the regular season except it's not still quite the regular season I still have a draft left still have a slow draft ongoing we're in the weird in between zone of draft season and the regular season but Denny we're so close to getting new dots new bleeps and bloops on our spreadsheets yeah new data that we have just been screaming out for since seriously like February 24th like yes nine days after the Super Bowl we've never in the history of the world has a group of people other than 2024 fantasy drafters needed more data badly listen I anything else than what we've got I'm very much looking forward to drawing ridiculous conclusions from week one data you know that's that's what I that's what I wanted so much for weeks now for months and that's what we we'll get soon week one data from a Packers receiver Corp playing on a field of unknown conditions in Brazil and you know like they can't even they can't even out there Tony and because that's seems what happens in a lot of these International games and yeah having to draw a sweeping conclusions like donante davan Wick didn't get targeted so right them in every League yeah uh hopefully this that's actually the field conditions make me nervous for Christian Watson's hamstrings oh my gosh need to hear that oh Christian Watson by the way absolutely who I want taking an international flight in week one yeah surely no fluid building up in Christian Watson's hamstrings as they fly to sa paollo absolutely absolutely none at all but we're we're going to talk about the new data but we're going to have our cake needed to we're going to get some news samaji perine and his impact on the Chiefs backfield Jamar Chase is this a five alarm fire situation Den he the Chiefs receiver Corp without Maris Brown against the Ravens and what would have been the world's lamest Revenge game Jaylen Warren practicing Rico dle season Gathering steam uh we're going to talk about you know one of our tropes of the summer has been the bank examiner and whom might get our home seized if they don't perform well this year we're going to talk about some of our bank exam and our All Stars we're talk about some of the players we didn't draft all summer and whether we have fear because of this why we didn't do it and then we're going to get to some candidates from Denny's positive regression article for the 20124 season but Denny Carter you know you're known to mix it up online from time to time and this time it was with the very timely news subject samaji peryan in his impact on the Chiefs backfield and Isaiah Pacho had been a very strong second round pick probably snuck in the first round and some crazy drafts that was probably uh few and far between but a guy people are invested in he seemed like he had been consolidating touches in that back field right they were cycling through backups like CH was getting another chance but then he got sidelined for personal issues again literally a fullback they were trying to get in there Carson steel like yeah Andy Reid being brave yeah it's a fullback yeah who cares we like that I'm not scared good I'm not worried I'm not claiming the first veteran that gets cut um cut down we I'm not going to and I did it he claimed or he didn't claim he signed some IP Ry um who did not pass through waivers he was a veteran and was released um you think that he's way better quote than Isaiah pcho what's going what is why are people mad at you and what do you think the Fallout is in the chief backfield from this transaction look I mean who who Among Us doesn't want to spend their Labor Day weekend being yelled at by strangers for suggesting samaj P Ryan could be an issue for hold on hold on I I will immediately join the the angry mob you didn't just suggest he was going to be an issue I think I didn't say way better you literally say he was better I said he he's probably better yeah not all right the angry mob has never been more right angry mob sacking Denny Carter's house taking the tiny Grill has been carded off immediately your your deck leave my grill alone first of all it did its job this weekend um all I'm saying one porn cob was great I think think look Isaiah Pacho has really benefited from being in the chief's offense as every Chiefs running back could do okay it just happens that they're all bad um I really truly think that a big reason why people are so uh in love with him as a fantasy Prospect and as a real player is because he runs funny you know he Stomps on the ground bom boom they like oh this guy hustles I love this guy but you know I mean he's not he's not good you know and samj perine is not great either but perine everywhere he's gone he's been pretty darn good he was a so some so okay I'll just well he wasn't good until they made him a role player I'll just address a couple things I mean there's so many we could have a whole show on the people who are screaming at me about this all weekend but people one one issue is they say well if he's so good why isn't he leading the Denver backfield that's a good question true why why if he is so good why is he getting cut by the guy who kept him relevant didn't he I would say this good question glad you asked Pat um it's because the Broncos said we don't want old dusty guys we want young guys and curiously said I'll take that old dusty guy you know you know what he did with the last old dusty guy he had Jerick mckinon he made an r rb1 in PPR rb1 is very strong he was not an rb1 well for long stretches no come on no no no okay all right the second argument is this changes nothing for Pacho I hear I heard that a lot and you know what I'm going to concede that I think it does change things but I'm going to concede that okay it changes nothing you're drafting him in the second round because you thought that McKinnon's demise meant something great for Pacho meaning he gets all the pass game work he gets all the high high value touches in the back field right that's why he's going in the second pet I'm old enough to remember I'm one of maybe 10 people alive old enough to remember when p was going in the sixth or seventh round last year okay so if nothing has changed for him then we are overdrafting him by four to five rounds that's that that's my argument I think he should be really going probably in the fourth or fifth round he's going in the second perine is good as in he led the NFL in running back yards per route run last year his success rate was better than P's on limited carries and yes he wasn't faing World beaters and yes he didn't see 400 carries I get sure he was on the field for all the most advantageous running back situations you I understand I understand all that but I'm just telling you that Pacho nothing has changed for Pacho and we're drafting him four rounds earlier than we were last August see yeah that's where I do agree with you and not the rabble things have very seriously materially changed for peo where we are just getting last year's version of PCO I'd say he was pretty efficient he was a rush yards overexp expected not all allar but he was like firmly in the top half of the league so he looks like he'd be an inefficient Runner but first off it's easy to be efficient as a running back in Patrick mahomes's offense which I guess maybe is a concern that if samaji purine is even more efficient even if it's not as like the regular early down back because no one is suggesting that samaj purine will be the regular early downback but the the Pea rise from like mid round DeadZone Superstar last year which is yeah where I had Peko in almost every league has rise to like second round was about him consolidating touches and McKinnon not being brought McKinnon was a big failure for the Chiefs last year that was actually like a really bad Personnel decision they made like they hit they hit on 17 with the Jerick McKinnon like third down back thing and it it was not a good decision no you're right very poor decision but they they could not find a replacement and it seemed like he had Consolidated those touches up until the quite literal very last moment like I don't man they never figured this out they're they're literally this guy number 42 and he supposed to be the backup to Isaiah pcho like I'm just not really buying it so to me he was a very safe rb1 like in the probably like8 to 10 range where now he's just very much I I haven't like plunged him but he's in like that RB 11 to 14 range where he's on the rb12 border line that's not good enough to be a second round pick it could spiral further I do agree with you there like if samaji pan is as efficient as he was with Shawn Payton which he probably won't be that was a Shawn pton thing but Andy Reid is also known for not bad no Patrick Mahomes so I I I stopped immediately I immediately stopped drafting Peko last week after this happened yeah I feel real bad about taking him in a recent uh Guillotine league with with you and other folks from NBC I I'm I'm done because I haveo uh the Committee on Public Safety was that what the French Revolution whatever that committee was um they're coming for you D they're uh they're looking strongly into me I uh I very powerfully to uh Dandy Dy Denny Carter they call you living large off the fat of the French land for they are they are looking strongly into the meeting of my neck and head uh in the guillotine League uh listen one more thing we're two years removed from samaj P Ry just destroying Joe mixon's upside in Cincinnati uh in 2022 hold on hold on he CAU 70 balls that year still Joe Mixon I wouldn't say she destroyed Joe mix in 2022 perine had 51 targets to 75 for Mixon okay hean had 26% of the Bengals rushing attempts to 61% for Mixon now Mixon that would be a great outcome those percentages for Pacho just being totally Frank that would be that would still be second round Pacho what you just describe 60% of the rushes well no they need to like 70 anyway uh Mixon had a 60-point fantasy game that year against the Panthers uh and finished his rb2 so I'll just leave that leave that there yeah it so I don't think it's Doom I do think this the facts on the ground have changed and um if you already have pcho I have I actually don't think I have pcho in any League really I said I stopped drafting him never started drafting him because he was just a little too high that price this year I totally agree with you there but I don't think it's like I don't think it's like a kirron Williams situation where like the heart is cut out of Cheo case uh but the things materially changed enough where like I wasn't even like I there was no value that I was gonna because most of my drafts my home League drafts of course were last weekend and he was not right at any price basically I mean I much rather take you know I'd much rather take Drake London in that in that range just for instance I'd much rather take like Malik neighbors than PCO weekly PPR starter question mark for samaj py or oh I I don't think so I mean I think in in larger formats you know that's the thing is I'm not I'm not suggesting P's going to be great fantasy asset I mean I no I stashed him on a couple teams uh in in 14 team leagues I think that you can you can get him into your lineup maybe I don't know about this week because he's still new to the team um but yeah I think that he will be involved also you have to remember uh the running back usage in the pass game in the in the green zone meaning inside the 10 yard line for the Kansas City Chiefs uh is insane and we saw that with McKinnon over and over and over if Peko got that we'd be talking top three season for Pacho but I don't know if he's going to get there also I want to mention that obviously on Thursday nighto is going to score three one yard touchdowns yes well no he won't the Chiefs are the one team I feel like will never regress in the Red Zone you like momes is just going to never not throw in the Red Zone because they trust him more than anyone in he doesn't throw the picks I think samaji P especially if you have like six bench spots very is very much obviously needs to be rostered in 12 team Le and maybe even started if you have two or three Flex spots even in the second Flex spot wouldn't I mean you'd be you should be able to do better than samaj P Ryan but I don't think it'd be a disaster if for some unknown reason like you drafted all the injured guys like if your second Flex needed to be some IP R it could like I played Seven snaps uh who's Chris trying to think work for our company played Seven snaps as Mike too yeah that that could but and two two yeah of course um I I I I have to say this also he's not a great zero RB guy because if jeo goes down this year perine does not get the workload like it's gonna be it's gonna be split up between steel and Prince and and and per so well Prince is gone by the way maybe CA sorry he's out four weeks though C Ste so anyway that so people said oh should I keep brillan Allen over P yes yes yes like don't get don't get no I wouldn't I played for today I'm not keeping brayan Allen defit got to use them if you got to use P now then go ahead and do that but if you can wait on brillan you know keep him yeah yeah brilin Bran's a super a myth uh you know it's not a myth Jamar Chase uh sort of practic every day like he is practicing then he's not practicing he's taken like maybe a dozen practice reps this summer I took Joe burrow over the weekend and one of my main home leagues like seriously just like this is so embarrassing just like totally forgetting that Jamar Chase and not I don't really want to take burrow I was locked in on Dak then Dak went like two picks before like whatever I'm gonna take burrow there was a league where I kind of like um having like a like I I didn't want to play like quarterback rette 14 teams what I just want a guy and I totally forgot about Jamar Chase not practicing when I was on the clock and I I very very quickly remembered after sure and just how big of a crisis concern is this because people we've been drafting all summer is a classic situation like Shirley Jamar is just going to report right like next week he is with the team uh but I don't know what to say about this because I don't know if anyone knows what to say are you one of the rare people who knows what to say about this TR Chase situation yeah I mean I have inside sources and uh no my I mean my gut says that he'll play in week one I I don't know to be honest about this seems like a classic he finally starts practicing week one but he's not conditioned enough and doesn't play till week two it's not it doesn't make me feel good and I very much faded Chase and drafts uh over the past month when it became clear this was a long-term issue um because I just I don't know I don't I don't mess with that like I don't mess with the guy sitting out the entire off season uh coming back for five snaps and the coach says oh he's back and then the coach has to say never mind he's not back which truly never happens a coach happen to be like shouldn't have said that yeah I mean he actually said uh Zack Taylor said I I put my foot in my mouth so it's an embarrassing situation for the team um for the coach now uh I this is this is super super toxic um and I just don't want any part of it I don't want any part of it and I do I wouldn't be shocked if he if he plays week one it's like as a package player like putting him in the red zone and then like The Vibes really bad and then they're not targeting him in the Red Zone yes The Vibes are extraordinarily terrible they are um but Jamar had always kind of given you know like big time Alpha energy but he kept it funny but the alpha was lurking all along he just fully deserves to be paid it's a team that does not pay people Joe burrow is one of the first players they've ever paid and he might be wondering like is this team ever gonna actually give me what I want are they gonna do the the dumb franchise song and tag song and dance with me he does have two years left on his deal so you could argue you needed to wait till next year to do this but it's a bit unorthodox to do it now but it's not hardly unprecedented and yeah The Vibes are very very bad I want no part of it I mean the the same same reason I I tended to avoid Cowboys players The Vibes are so spectacularly awful in Dallas that I just I got scared got scared a CD got paid so all the Vibes are good now no no it's still bad it's still you look very very foolish didn't he okay Z Prescott is out here saying Jerry Jones is a fool yeah yeah the the star franch player saying basically like I I don't even think about the owner oh man don't even think about him and yeah that's going to go really well for Jerry Dak by the way just contract Master Class Dak probably wants to get tagged I can't even remember if he can get tagged maybe like financially he like this like actually can't get tag I's he's gonna make one trillion dollars yeah sure tag me I don't care you can tag me twice that' be great like you did the first time and I'll become the richest citizen in North America you talk about the Cowboys bad vibes it doesn't include Rico Dole no the drum beat continues to build Todd Archer of the athletic kind of admitting confirming maybe ever so slightly guessing what we've been suspecting for several weeks now is Rico do is gonna lead this back field and Carries Zeke Denny and shambles of course Zeke just totally dusted they brought in another Dusty veteran and dvin cook who this may shock you also still dusted and uh momentum building for Rico Dole or is it all illusion is it all a scam will Zeke emerge triumphant where's your pulse on the Cowboys backfield situation I mean I haven't seen any confirmation that Mike McCarthy's press conference the other day was not generated by AI so I'm waiting for that no I mean it wasn't he I did look into it he he said uh he said look we we you know having Dao not play so much special teams because he has three down ability and he so he said the three down term and uh boy oh boy have I never been been sicker in my life because my bet I made a bet yeah I made a bet a month ago two months ago I said it's going to be Zeke and um my bet was wrong I was wrong so it is d as the the lead back I guess Zeke maybe comes in if D gets dinged up but for those who took D in the 10th 11th round I mean you're probably cooking that's that's good stuff so you were quote unquote wrong at least for now um I was also wrong I didn't think it would be Z but I was leaning towards option four back not on the roster they did add Dalvin I've seen absolutely nothing to leave me to believe it will be Dalvin I thought they might have had like a a younger like retread type of player dalvin's not a threat I mean reico do I I did draft Rico Dole in two home leagues over the weekend you know it is a situation where it's still paid to be an industry guy like they had no clue Rico oh yeah absolutely no idea who Rico do was I me don't don't get me wrong talking with a tone of condescension as if I win this league every I don't even come close no you've never even made the playoffs no but I did get Rico do I did get Rico Dole and I will be still be getting I my final draft tonight almost certainly will be getting Rico Dole because it's the classic the best ball Bros will say you should have been saying this for six months man because they've been getting Rico Dole for six months and are looking very right but all my closing drafts I I did get Rico do in some earlier drafts by the way Rico Target though for me in these very final rounds in these home leagues is he let me ask you this is he a Target if you if you get like two running backs in the first six rounds or seven rounds even still yes yeah because the touches honestly this year my feeling is it doesn't matter when you address running back or how early you address running back like after the first once you get into like that Eckler Zone 30 to 35 I don't know if I've ever seen more up in the air touches like especially after like Deon single ter Zone it's just like the path to touches is complicated for everyone it's a committee for everyone I feel like doesn't matter because you can't really get more than like two like guaranteed touch running backs quote unquote No matter when you're doing it unless you're hitting it like seriously the first four rounds so even if I have like two of my first four picks are running backs I feel like the fight for touches is very Fierce yeah I'm still getting rco no matter what the build is yeah uh yeah that that range I mean you that that's where you have to make your bets in that dead zone range and uh I made my bet wrong with Dallas what can you do nevertheless never never ever theless um be bet wrong and Jaylen Warren the best bar Bros were just hammering Jaylen Warren earlier in the off season then no one including the Steelers coaching staff has talked about him for like six weeks mostly because he was hurt with a hamstring injury he is back practicing he's talking like he's going to play this weekend and they who are they playing are they playing the Falcons Falcons man the Arthur Smith Revenge game do you have a feeling on this I mean it's another situation was kind of hard to develop an informed opinion because we just didn't get anything until like this week that he is practicing again is he gonna be like a big surprise or like you I know you've been worried about art being Naji pilled he loves the big backs and uh can can Jaylen Warren still be a drafting connoisseur's hero basically you know in all of this discussion about n or Warren and this and that um we never even considered curell Patterson and because I I'm I'm also still not doing that by way well no no I okay again like with peryan I'm not saying per Ryan's gonna take over the Kansas City backfield that'll never happen and Patterson will never take over the Pittsburgh backfield the guy's like 45 years old he'll never even be active he'll be active no he won't and he's playing as former team in week one and Warren maybe could be limited because of the hamstring and they like Naji I don't know man I feel like I feel like this is like a a potential disaster for playing Warren this week maybe just this week not this month no right I think down the line it'll be better but I'm uh this early season stuff I'm trying not to play Warren the early like week one or two would be the only weeks I would ever even think of Cordell or Patterson because Arthur Smith was party to the cpat Revival of course but then he was party to he stopped using him he he's like he was the absolute classic like the SEC kind of like tesm Hill like the second this guy has 10 touches in a game he can like barely play oh yeah he's not seeing 10 touches he barely walk for a month after handling like 10 to 12 touches so he's gonna be like a true like this gadget player like in the like the true sense of the TM he comes out for like a few Gadget plays I don't think even if it's like three or four touches which like that's not nothing when like a a running back touch pie is so small but I'm not worried about that I'm just I'm a little I'm a little for the early season I'm a little worried and particularly this week um I refu look I can't measure it with the analytics I refuse to believe that Arthur Smith doesn't have something schemed up for Patterson to get into the end zone against his former mates get into the end zone oh hell yes are you oh man wait a second you you think it's not happening P Patterson's scoring no no no no I think he's getting two two Touches for negative one yards my prediction well we will revisit this next week one of them will be an end round from the nine yard line I'll be watching I don't they dare give the they give him an end around and then he just gets blown up I'm like all right whatever um and just this is a a warning from friend to friend this is a warning quter Patterson scoring a touchdown this week we've been warning our friends quite frequently on the show we should up top of this earlier we were still home with the Chiefs but not to draft Maris Brown I mean not exactly unique advice the whole industry seems like oh yeah I ain't touching that guy which could very much come back to haunt us he is out for week one against the Ravens though how do we feel about the Chiefs receiver core which had no upside last year now is the first rounder Xavier worthy now it's Rashid rice who was ascendant last year apparently not getting suspended how do we think sh how do we think things shake out out Maris Brown is he a big threat when he comes back things of that nature uh without brown you have where rice and Justin Watson as your three receiver sets okay you know Watson wish I could yell at you about that but it's an arguably true yeah wat Watson is eternal we have to just uh come to grips with that um I don't like it but we we have to and and you know when Brown comes back I I could see him being worked into the lineup a little bit here and there um I mean it was a serious injury you had to go to the hospital had to stay overnight so I you know I think uh I think it'll be a while before Mares Brown who by the way what did he ever do to earn the name Hollywood I mean the guy's literally done nothing anyway um so yeah I don't I don't think Brown will be fantasy relevant for a little while and I think this P I think this gives a guy like worthy a chance to really establish himself as a guy who never comes off the field yeah I mean Brown the one thing he so first off people were surprised when it was a only a one-year deal B I think it was seven million which of course is good money but he was a guy no one would have like blinked before free agency began like yeah he's getting 12 to 14 million or whatever so the market did not value Maris Brown very highly he got a bailout and at least Landing in a really good landing spot you know a team that was extremely serious about updating and improving their receiver core so they made the aggressive addition of Xavier worthy Maris Brown is the kind of player that just needed to have a steady offseason didn't need to give the rookie daylight maybe there's nothing he could have done if the rookie was really impressive was a situation I feel like for Maris Brown like like a regular contributor in fantasy like he couldn't give that opening to Xavier worthy right now he's giving him the opening it's the kind of shoulder injury where he's gonna be clearly paying playing through pain all year probably getting like shots injections and I do worry about Maris Brown coming back definitely obviously forcing his way into the rotation and then hurting the value of Xavier worthy but I think in term as far as like Maris Brown carving out his own like say wide receiver three maybe even wide receiver four value like that ship has sailed like he needed he was a perfect offseason player like there's there's a there's a path here there's an Avenue here but it has to have the perfect off season he had anything but the perfect offseason didn't happen no he's banged up a lot and I feel like Maris now his 2024 fantasy Value Story will be about more the value he takes from other players yeah than the value he creates for himself um unworthy real quick and this is something I wasn't able to jam into an article so far this week maybe I'll find a way on my Friday column but uh he was targeted Sav worthy was targeted on 35% of his preseason pass routes um which is really strong it could it could have been like they wanted to really focus on him like get him the ball a little bit but I I have a feeling that that that shows you what they want to do with him and could be great well speaking of Denny's articles we're going to talk about one of them right after this week one is here the season begins with NFL kickoff on Thursday September 5th as the Ravens face the Chiefs on NBC and peacock the following night it's the Packers versus the Eagles in Brazil exclusively on peacock so to begin the NFL season sit with us here at NBC and peacock really hope that field is in good shape in Brazil I have seen by the way to be clear I haven't seen a single report about the Brazilian field I just know Thursday morning Rob dski of ESPN like guys they're having footing issues down here field right that is if they can tweet at all um our man they oh man they will not be able to post on the xplatform I I honestly been stressed about this like like Christian Watson injures his hamstring and there there's no one to report it they can't do it sounds like you're gonna have to join another social media site Pat I never I'm a dead Ender I was here first I was here first I was before long before that man that's an interesting stance I will say Denny uh I was also here first before you at rot world but I I can't ever remember the site without you so much content so much good content that includ your regression files which will be released weekly you have one for week one focused on season regression candidates yeah let's start with you're going talking about two positive regression candidates we're gonna have to start with you put chrisa here we're not talking about him first we're gonna talk about Patrick Mahomes first okay you have admit to feat um it's never been more over for you Pat Mahomes left so much meat on the bone last year you know his absolute floor 4,400 yards and 27 touchdowns and uh what would the positive aggression look like right will your face melt off uh I'm hoping not all the way off but like partly so like I'll be Two Face from Batman that sort of thing I can work with that one side one side handsome one side not so much uh and so I actually wrote in the rotor uh magazine draft magazine many are calling it I I said it's uh cosmically unfair that momes is a positive regression candidate but it is undeniably true okay last year uh well oh Jesus just lost okay here we go last year um a career low in adjusted yards per attempt at 6.9 career low in passing success rate at 48% H here's a stat here's a stat for you Pat and please try to stay upright after I read this uh mahomes's this I wrote this mahomes's unreliable pass catchers led to a miserable 44% air yards conversion rate last year that was on par with Zack Wilson and Daniel Jones and my contention is that Mahomes is better than both those guys and that even if these guys like even if Xavier worthy kind of struggles even if Hollywood Brown is still this Hollywood Brown even if rir rice gets suspended for three games there's no way the receiver situation can be worse than it was last year yeah just so you know that air yard's conversion rate uh just two years ago is 55% um it has been his high as 60% from momes in his career with Kansas City so you know we're talking about massive regret with a with an upgrade um in especially downfield pass catchers I think you know with worthy and and hopefully uh Maris Brown eventually uh yeah I mean it's a it's a revenge tour situation I think for Mahomes and um you know last year it it stunk trying having to start him in one quarterback leagues I get that I don't think that'll be the case this year to be honest even Justin Watson could maybe be slightly more effective let's not get crazy if Xavier worthy and Maris Brown are the guys drawing the attention like say about Mar Brown I Feel Like defenses are probably still a little more concerned about him than maybe defenses I guess were concerned about mvs because the one thing he can do let beat you over the top but there's just a lot more to think about for defenses this year with the chief's offense and um yeah P screaming regression candidate so my my idea remember you know which I've said many times on the show my idea for this season is like it doesn't matter what the Chiefs want to do because the defenses just play two safeties 30 yards off the line of scrimmage and that's that well they found the one guy who pretty much uh makes that a non-factor and can just simply run past those those 30 yard downfield safeties uh with with Xavier worthy so obviously Personnel makes a difference uh couldn't be worse than last year I think certainly will be better well even samaj purine to be honest like there's one more guy they actually have to account for now on the short passing game like whatever they're hanging back uh better get ready to learn eight samaj P catch for 92 yards buddy all eight of them are first downs that is that's sweet that's sweet music to my ears Pat even Travis Kelsey could have more space we haven't even talked about Kelsey the greatest tight end of all time we haven't talked about him no one talks about Travis Kelce except for every single commercial on my no no no you're thinking of Jason his brother I'm not ready for this man like I tweeted this the other day like I'm trying it's one situation the people like it I've been trying not to become cynical about you got very cynical about the whole thing very quick last year I never got bothered the whole Kelsey Swift thing um Jason Kelce is the one that's kind of fam like dude listen I get it you're you got a personality I yeah increasingly rare in today's modern athletic environment you had a beer even that's increasingly rare he's the first pro athlete since 1992 to have a beer and he is now he is now famous for every time I turn on my TV Jason Kelce is literally yelling at me he's just screaming and we'll see I would like it to end long before I end up um on the fainting couch from the Kelsey Brothers will I be on the fainting couch when Crystal a has three catches for 32 yards in week one or will the guy finally actually regress and do something live up to the hype in Chris Chris all right so that's your guy first of all right I have him in a few leagues this year he was a good value the last thing you say before your league it's your team gets eliminated he was a good value chryst you scream the process as you go under the water yes um so okay let me tell you how bad by the way bad what you say that was very Bleak by the way yeah yeah sorry I couldn't my my computer is being really loud so um you're gonna have to speak up son uh listen alive got really really unlucky last year on downfield targets from Derek Carr not that Carr is like some unbelievable say I don't know if you can Define that as unlucky well those are high variance looks anyway let let me just read you the stats okay um alve was targeted thir 32 times Beyond 20 yards downfield last year okay he caught eight that's crazy that's Derek Carr though man that's Derek car dude um so only three receivers saw more 20 uh downfield Targets in 2023 uh even even with that lack of downfield success Chrisi was 21st in yards per route run among receivers uh I I mean he really last year he was like maybe three deep balls away from having a season where people are like I got to take this guy in the top eight next year in fantasy he didn't it didn't hit I think it can hit I think he is that good uh he has a good open Score I I don't I don't know I I really I think we are underrating him and and it's not it's not like he's going crazy late but I think we'll look back at him in London and we'll say what were we doing exactly well we think Chrystal a is good but I just wouldn't be shocked um even though the the advanced met have been solid as you've said if Chris is always a disconnect guy like the computer says he should be better it's DK car I know it's Derek Carr the computer says he should be better oh man that's funny he might always be a disconnect guy but sere car you know one of my mortal fantasy football I know but my hope is Clint kubak as I pointed out like Clint kubak is who you get when you go to the Kyle shanan Dollar Store like you you have any Clint kubak left we have like 40 of them left can you first off can you read says right here we got 40 Clint pubc that I'll sell you for you know $179 because nothing's actually a dollar anymore brutal you get Clint kubak at the kle Shanahan dollar store and but even a dollar store Kyle Shanahan I feel like is gonna sequence this offense more Sensi oh yeah and that the Deep shots will come in more advantageous spots the defense won't be so ready for them and that that is the main thing I'm hanging my hat on Chrystal salave is that the looks even if like some of them are off Target still because it's Derek Carr and that's what he does um that it's just going to be a more sensibly sequenced me listen we don't need if if a sees 32 deep shots again this year we don't need him to catch 22 of them to to get there we need him to catch 12 yeah yes okay like it doesn't really need to be that much better in order for him to meet and exceed his ADP so I I totally agree with the optimism for positive Crystal La regression who are some negative regression candidates Raheem moer is going to be the first one you talk about this is something I've really really been banking on Deon H and denan yeah right I mean it is will be good for your finances and the continued owners ownership of your home the squatter I have in my backyard this if this comes to to pass now look I if here's how I could be wrong okay uh Mike McDaniel simply sees Raheem oard as Hammer okay as the guy that they just give it to over and over and over again inside the Red Zone and he scores all the touchdowns and he gets away with it it it truly could happen like that uh but here's here's what I wrote in the regression files if folks want to check it out on the rot to World site um in 2023 moster had 33 green green zone rushes that was the third most among running backs um and 14 green zone touchdowns leading all running backs he he also ran hot as a pass catcher in the Red Zone he had three touchdowns on just six inside the 20 targets wow uh you know so everything broke right I would say everything broke right for both Dolphins running backs in the Red Zone because ham was crazy too maybe that's that's a product you know I mean this is a Shanahan system right maybe that's a product of of the offense and this will simply just continue year after year forever if it doesn't mostard folks who drafted mostard as their rb3 or whatever they're going to have a tough time that's all I said I I think most are different kind of player different role for the Dolphins but he could be in his Jerick McKinnon phase where it didn't matter because he kept getting the short carries and cashing in down the stretch but he really ran out of gas he was way less efficient yeah way less productive in the second half last season I feel like that has to be weighing on Mike McDaniel's mind and like you said even if the C Taylor's workload it could be possible that still like the majority of the workload still comes on that absolute highest value touches of goal line carries but I I just don't see it happening moster was a guy he's finally figured out how to stay healthy like humongous credit to him for that but second year in a row where two years ago they had to start giving him smaller workloads and he remained efficient in the second half of the season last year they did not and he just got extremely inefficient and I have to feel like the plan's gonna be different this year um and then there's also the factor you know I'm betting on this Dolphins team having to play from behind a little more this year maybe a lot more um you know that undercuts mostard bread and butter which is you know taking the air out of the ball with the lead um I think that is more probably more advantageous for hen I was all in on Tua last year and like I was in a lot of two quarterback leagues you missed it by one year you missed it you missed well I didn't I got aan so I I need the aan prophecy well I was saying on Tua this this year is the year no it's not Tua is never gonna be a guy who has the year like please stop with that I mean I mean I'm not saying quarterback one overall I'm just saying sound no that's not what I'm saying I'm saying that he can he can move now which is nice you're really this is your big narrative that you're in on this year last year you on you were in on one good Jordan love quarter from 2022 and that paid off for you big time so we'll see if one quarterback losing 10 pounds um 60 what no or 50 I I forget he didn't lose 50 pounds he didn't have 50 pounds to lose Tua did not have 50 pounds to lose I will say that Tua looked like an like a like a center last year his own teammates were calling him overweight but he didn't have 50 pounds he actually looked I I'm sorry for a professional athlete he looked ridiculous last year he was not small he was not small the regression is not going to be small for the second player Denny who is it your negative aggression candidate Jordan Addison um yes uh Jordan Addison uh just real quick uh 10 touchdowns on 70 catches last year 14.5% touchdown rates that's as the kids say ain't happening again uh eight of those scores came outside the Red Zone you know so he didn't get anything easy it was all like over the top stuff from cousins um many would say that darnold is a downgrade to cousins and uh I not you I believe no I believe he's a downgrade but not a massive one not a not a life-altering one yeah and yeah of course you think that but we'll see we'll see after this week after he throws for 220 yards and one touchdown against the Giants oh yeah the Giants anyway Addison yeah I mean I think you're drafting Addison thinking oh I'm you know I'm gonna get nine 10 touchdowns this year and you're not so just remember that you're I will say Addison is a guy where he is having touchdown regression but he could make up for it with just the greater overall volume no TJ hackinson no KJ Osborne only two pairs of proven hands on the Vikings and he he could be a classic offset guy we like yeah don't expect the touchdowns but do I wish I would have mentioned that in my article it's fine these things happen I can I can go in and edit it since it's not in the newspaper I can go in you should go edit that you should uh stay with us we'll be right back after this fantasy football season just got $1 million better create or join a private Yahoo fantasy league and enter the $1 million NBC sweep Stakes plus earn extra entries to win when players on your fantasy roster score a touchdown during an opening weekend game on NBC or peacock we have three of them download the redesigned Yahoo fantasy app or go to nbcsports.com fantasy million to learn more yeah I bet you forgot we have three opening weekend games not just Thursday Friday but also Rams Lions Sunday night at 8:20 PM Eastern on NBC Peacock and NBC Universal bet you didn't think I'd remember that third one no I I knew you to remember it few years ago I had to watch Sunday Night Football in Spanish where no fall NBC the local affiliate is not owned by the Comcast Corporation it's owned by one of those Regional television Affiliates and they were feuding um with Direct TV and I watched Sunday Night Football in NBC Universal for like a month and it was a very interesting experience that's good that's good you know you you you learned a little something I remember I learned to buy a SAT I learned to buy an antenna I do not have an antenna for when these things happen you learned you learned to buy an antenna once uh my my eighth grade Spanish teacher told me told us to watch all of our TV in Spanish uh and I did not at all I remember that and you don't know a single word of Spanish to this day do you Den you I know I know at least six Denny get some culture because uh we might have to be learning Spanish when these players um fail us we're gon have to be changing careers we're gonna have to be bilingual we're gonna need new life skills I will be learning Spanish everyone knows this when Devon hn busts yes and like I'm just like I've become like a Salesman and like yeah there's a lot of Spanish speaking people in your region Pat you need to learn Spanish you should have thought of this um before he took Devon Anan in every single League Devon Anan is what I'd call one of my bank examiner players didn't he if he fails the bank examiners of course camped out in my yard we talked enough about Devon hn where we don't need to do that anymore but who is a player that you have uh where if they do not succeed this year you are financially ruined Denny car yeah I mean look uh obviously all the Seahawks players except for Tyler Lockett so jsn met CF Gino and and Noah Fant I uh I will lose everything if they uh if any of them misses One Snap this year hopefully they don't um so I have a scary amount of exposure to Jaden Daniels um you know and it's curious because I spent the entire pre-draft process saying he wouldn't be good and then I took you and I were in chorus on that and then we have been in chorus on taking him on every single team we have partly it's not as in congruent as it seems because we did say listen the guy will never be good in real life we don't care about them care about fantasy or he will be amazing that's that Bing on there's a lot of indication that this Washington defense is going to be pretty bad um Cliff kingsberry offenses often lead the NFL or among the top like three or four teams in running in running and I'm sorry in quarterback runs right Jaden Daniels took off a lot in his final col of season at LSU and was crazy good as a rusher as far as like yards ere expected and and yards after contact all that stuff right uh so I think we're going to see a lot of that I think we're gonna see a lot of Jaden Daniels running in the red zone as like the primary rushing threat so I know folks I like a lot of folks I respect in the fantasy industry say well Jaden Daniels is is just a floor play like that's what rushian quarterbacks are they're just floor plays and I and I understand the concept behind that is that you get that 60 70 yards in a touchdown and that's the floor and then all the passing stuff is is icing on the cake and I so I understand the concept but I would say that I don't know if we're projecting a proper amount of rushing for Jaden Daniels and so I want him everywhere as an upside option not just a floor option and he took crazy hits in college and he's really small and skinny that's what scared us more than anything not even necessarily that he was truly not good it is the play style yeah and kind of the recklessness and a belief in his physical abilities which in the SEC did exceed everyone else in the NFL there's pretty much no one whose physical abilities exceed everyone else and so yeah I he's a guy who the bank examiner is very interested in seeing how things play out well he he couldn't believe it when he saw he was one of your like your your flag players that's why again I don't know how it's legal but he's been on your deck for two months um ever since the first Jaden Daniel share was taken um we we gotta get we got to get more people on this we need one person at the Carter House 24 hours a day yeah he's he's in a tent I can actually go show you if you want it could be we could be able to seize the Carter home as early as week three folks Jane Daniels breaks his collarbone um the deck is ours the 18 hole golf course that is in Denny's backyard and privately owned by The Carter family is ours um the grill is ours um we are taking this Carter House the dog Ziggy they're taking your dog that seems very cruel but with Jaden Daniels too they're wrong about it's not just the rushing the two things that won Jaden Daniels the Heisman Trophy were the rushing and the Deep passing so it's gonna be the rushing it's gonna be the big plays and the reason we were all in on on Jaden Daniels is like it's pretty hard to get any values on on like flashy quarterbacks anymore hard to get any values on Dual threat quarterbacks like big play quarterbacks because everyone knows like if you're a dual threat uh if you hit long passes down the field yeah that's like one of the the life packs to Fantasy success that's why everyone is taking Anthony Richardson in the fifth and sixth round it's why Josh Allen is always the qb1 no questions asked over Patrick Mahomes despite being the best player of his generation uh but I still this all summer I failed to spot the difference in the fantasy cases between Anthony Richardson Jaden Daniels yes right Jaden Daniels is a more proven player than Anthony Anthony Richardson played one year at Florida wasn't that great did look a lot better like he looked like a guy who understood how to use his skill set in the NFL last year but he didn't understand you how to stay healthy and I just have never understood that disconnect Richardson and Jaden Daniels I don't know if we ever talked about on this show sorry to interrupt you but I had to I had to get this out uh Co you know there there were pretty concerning reports about Richardson as a passer out of out of training camp and out of Team practices I think when they practice against the Bengals like I know that those those are just a few reports over the course of a summer I think Colts fans would say you got to take into account all of it which is fine but man those some of those reports about him not really you know you know struggling to read defenses throwing to spots instead of players um the defense being able to manipulate him uh that that's concerning and it's not that shocking honestly like you said Pat this is a guy who has very little experience under Center in game situations and it's just so hard to find the late round dual threat especially since Lamar Jackson's 2019 that's when fantasy maners like we can't get caught flat-footed by this again like that's why we were so proactive on Anthony Richardson and it's just weird that that proactiveness did not go all the way to J he's in the top 12 to be fair to Fantasy drafter so it's not like they're totally asleep on him but I I have just like if you value Anthony Richardson that highly I feel like you need to Value Jaden Daniels that highly Jaden Daniels could easily be the fantasy MVP he could very easily and that's why he's a bank examiner player for Denny I speak of like like big play threats this is something I fall for like always in I like guys who can like change games who can change matchups on like one target one carry even if it's like a PPR league so I'm I'm all in on DK metf because I'm all in on the same narrative you are about the Seahawks like it's going to be better sequence better design more pass heavy but more pass friendly this like not just passing more smarter so I'm all in on DK I'm all in on George pickings which that one I frankly don't have a great case for it's just I with Pickins I couldn't get out of my head like Mason Rudolph turned this guy into easily a top 20 receiver like if he even marginally better quarterback play than Kenny picket could make this guy his fantasy returns be as good like as his on on paper skill set and then ad Mitchell uh who this honestly was the only Colts receiver that seemed to be generating like positive reports out of Colt not that Michael Pitman needs to be generating reports he's a proven entity at this point but I I thought the the ad Mitchell reports were kind of like a guy who sound like maybe he was underrating to me so I got him a lot it's like one of my freebie wide receivers and yet the my home will be being seized if these big play receivers uh do not convert their big plays to any because they're not PPR guys I'm in on a lot of non PPR guys despite basically being an exclusively PPR formates it it's an interesting approach it is uhy I I like ad Mitchell I I like the chip on his shoulder I like that dog in him um Alec Pierce is still around the coaches are still talking him up Pierce is lucky not to be cut but I mean you might be right you might be right um I you know I I think that ad Mitchell is almost certainly going to have a couple maybe three like crazy crazy games this year where he hits on like two or three deep balls and he just takes it to the house but you know beyond that I just I feel like you know this Colts as far as past volume goes maybe not pass rate but past volume I feel like this Colts team is going to be definitely in the bottom half of the league Michael Pitman is a magnet I just don't I don't know how he's going to draw consistent but you knew that you knew that about his Target situation you also know that I'm not like a bold predictions guy and like when like say we got like a bll prediction man I'm not doing this like no you do not like that I don't like bll predictions one thing I have bed about in my head though is just what what if Adan I Mitchell is just the Colt's number one receiver wow they've never been fully satisfied with Michael Pitman I guess they did pay him but he's just got like that's not like a truly Elite skill set and what if Adan I Mitchell just has that Elite skill set that downfield winning skill set that is in increasingly shorter Supply in the NFL and what if he's just basically the deao co I again I one reason I haven't put this in print is because I don't believe that's the most likely outcome of of course or even a likely outcome but I don't think it's an impossible outcome I'll say with ad Mitchell and the Colts I mean I think I think Michael Pitman is a nice easy button for Richardson and I don't know if Mitchell can become that but Mitchell is certainly a better well I should say like a a more explosive type receiver who can make big plays on his own Michael Pitman doesn't make any big plays and and but that's okay with the Colts they're fine with that we'll do our Second Bank exam in our players quickly so we can at least get to one player we didn't draft and has a scared who's your second Bank examiner I feel like you could have gone a little more underground could have gone a little more Indie a little more hipster for this one no I'm gonna go mainstream I'm gonna go the guy everybody knows uh because no one knows Jaden Daniels but everybody knows Tyreek Hill and because of you know my working theory that the Dolphins are gonna have to actually try this year and throw ate one salad and your whole life has changed God I mean I I would like to push back but that's actually the that's actually what you've been saying basically TOA eats salads now I would I I thank you Tua for eating salads so you could ruin my entire uh NFL season um so Tyreek 1,00 yards last year 45th in wide receiver routes um I believe he has 2,000 plus yards in them and no no no know easily easily I mean tyre's peaked you go first I'll tell you my I've been taking him over everybody I've been taking him over CMC I've been taking him over CD lamb because the Vibes are so because the Vibes are so bad in Dallas uh and I'm a Vibes based drafter so I I do think Tyreek has one more legendary season in him I actually don't and it's not just because he's turn 30 but Tyreek I think is at the point where this guy gets banged up a lot and has a played through all of them he did miss a game last year but he he's theone who's had really good injury luck because he's he actually takes a lot of big hits and he is a smaller guy and I just I've been shocked how resilient he has been his entire career I just don't know if I see that resilience I think he's kind of an unborrowed injury luck time and not that I'm like predicting I'm not predicting like a major like lower body Andre because you can't foredi those of course but it's harder to bounce back from those when you're over 30 uh he was really close to missing time last year several times inste he led the league and receiving um didn't ever do that but I just basically I don't think I don't think we there's another gear for Tyreek to ascend to another level for Tyreek he doesn't have to that's my argument he doesn't have to he can this year and more more volume and bang he's he's over the top we see I mean Ty is a good guy to be over invested in anyway um much better than being over invested in Tyler Conlin by the way which I do have I think on in the true sense of the word literally on every team I have drafted because there's just I don't there's no upside flyers in that tight end 13 range this year there's just none of them essentially and Ty Tyler Conlin if Tyler Conlin you you mentioned three more chrysal lve deep catches if Tyler Conlin had just scored three touchdowns last year instead of zero like his entire fantasy narrative would have been different he was top 10 in both tight end receptions and yards I believe at least top 12 yards where his his he was targeted as a tight end one but unsurprisingly with Zach Wilson and Company delivering those targets he could not score right like the worst offensive environment we've ever seen the target competition Still Remains very minimal in the jet skill core and I just think Tyler Conan was a lowend tight end one so I'm not saying he's gonna be a star but who who was very ra even cracking the top 20 and I just think he's going be like the tight end 12 or 13 and for some reason I want that value on my b like even if this happens like oh yeah cool we got the tight end 13 not really sure why I was so obsessed with that um but I think it could be better than that you know I think with some touchdown luck it could be better I mean you're talking Bree Hall Garrett Wilson Tyler Concklin that's that's the list of jets who are going to catch passes this year so there you go one player that you've been worried about not drafting is one of the only places we're hoping some tight an upside resides but you apparently did not agree um who's someone you did not draft that you may be worried about not drafting Brock Bowers man I don't think I took him at all this off season um mostly because I just I don't he's strikes me as the kind of player where NFL teams have no idea what to do with him because he's not a tight end he's not a receiver and so you have a pit situation and you have Antonio Pierce not exactly being like the most like Curious coach about how to use players and he wants to ground and pound and no matter what this and that uh Michael Mayer that you know is is they're talked about as someone who's going to continually be involved and I don't know that but there is an upside injured his foot too I mean he kind of buried the lead it seemed like he is gonna play this year but he was sidelined for a while with the foot injury he another guy yeah yeah he Brock bar has always hurt yeah he had one of my forgot one of my major pre-draft bugaboos with Brock Bowers was that he had like experimental ankle surgery yeah last year like oh I absolutely love my first round tit and already has an experimental ankle operation on his resume so here's how things could go really arai for me as a Bower's doubter is if they just use him as a scam over the middle and garden of muu loves crane says they're gonna do that by the way right and it could happen so so I talked you know the Easy Button actually that's a phrase I'm borrowing from Hayden Winks on the underdog show but yeah Bowers could easily be the the easy button and here's the here's the apocalyptic scenario P if Devon D Adams is shipped out during the season if the Raiders start 0 and four and he's basically saying I'm not coming to practice anymore and they trade him Bowers Goes Bananas in that offense and I am losing everything they bye-bye Carter family Subaru I mean like I'm I'm gonna have to move to Brazil yeah you really hope blue sky is taken off by then get exiled to Brazil U one guy who I don't I did not draft a single time whether it was best ball not not that I was a big best ball bro I did like 10 drafts um uh best ball redraft uh I'm also not nervous about it at all just be told lad makoni just never understood what the argument was supposed to be he might be the number one receiver and one of the most run heavy offenses in the NF even if they're more pass heavy than expected like it's not gonna be L Tom guy's always hurt like just like wow I want a part of the Chargers receiver rotation I'm supposed to get excited about this could be a clip played back like you know at my funeral by my haters but uh it could be never once felt compelled to L to draft lad makoni and I'm gonna sleep easy with no lad Mak I don't I don't in that part of the draft I don't even look at him I was just taking ad Mitchell I was taking Brian Thomas like I just didn't there was other rookies where I was like Thomas the upside case is so much more plausible with these guys than it this flad m Brian Thomas will have more fantasy points in like the first four weeks of the season the lad M coni will have going into Christmas yes yes okay you know let's let's just be real about the environment I don't care if you like them as a prospect it doesn't matter that doesn't matter in these situations also no one covered the charger no one covers the Chargers we know this it great if we could get some coverage they're in the small Market of Los Angeles California so they can't get any coverage but there was just nothing on L I'll say like there was no reports lakoni and someone oh yeah I bet you didn't see this one well we had register on August 22nd like all right yeah I didn't see we had a blur in July I think that was like we did it was from me that he was in three receiver sets and there was just nothing ever again and he's connect he's connect has a connection with Herbert all right fine whatever I don't if that makes you feel better about your pre-draft take on the coni go ahead it's a terrible landing spot it was it was a terrible terrible in theory it was a good landing spot because like there's such a targets vacuum but yeah just the nature of what this to I kind of lost any Chargers offensive optimism when her got that foot injury I just feel like that was Jim Harbaugh like you know what we are going to circle the wagons and just play Harbaugh style football I'm not opening it up because I have the special talent and Justin Herbert and like I like that kind of killed any chances we had at least early in the season of seeing like a different style Jim Harbaugh offense right so with Jim Harbaugh you know what you're getting defense and running that's all you're getting please I'm begging people to stop pretending that that it's going to be different this year it's not going to be different it's going to be the exact same for formula as he's always used everything will be different for you if you listen to the road to World football show we're going to be back for our first preview of the year on Thursday with Mr Kyle Doric where we break down the entire week one slate on the Kyle and I have a waiver show next Monday Denny do you have anything on Friday or do you not have anything on Friday yet I do I'm glad you asked Pat Uh Friday at noon Eastern the only legitimate time zone uh I am doing a Q&A uh live stream on the NFL and NBC YouTube page I will post that link to the xplatform formally known as Twitter so we got so much stuff coming up my rankings coming out later this week Thursday morning as always the regression files from Denny the funnel thing from Denny question mark I will have the funnel thing on Friday onal thing just everything's here the regular season's here so all Root RS here so for Denny I'm Pat thank you so much for listening we'll be back on Thursday afternoon Mr Kyle Doric hi I'm Mike Tero and thanks for watching make sure to hit subscribe for the latest news and highlights from NBC Sports