Kornacki: Harris is up three points against Trump nationally

NATIONALLY AND IN KEY BATTLEGROUNDS INCLUDING SUN BELT STATES SO WHO ARE THOSE FOLKS AND HOW MUCH CHANGE IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THESE NEXT FURIOUS FEW WEEKS? JOINING US NOW AT THE BIG BOARD, NBC NEWS NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, THE ONE AND ONLY, STEVE KORNACKI. SO WHERE ARE WE TODAY, STEVE? >> LOOK AT IT FROM TWO VANTAGE POINTS. NATIONALLY, THIS IS THE AVERAGE OF THE NATIONAL POLLS COMING OUT OF THAT LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HARRIS, 48, TRUMP, 45. THREE-POINT ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS. THEY'RE HAPPY TO BE AHEAD AND IN A DIFFERENT POSITION THAN THEY WERE WHEN JOE BIDEN WAS THEIR CANDIDATE. HE WAS BASICALLY TRAILING DONALD TRUMP ALL YEAR. BUT FOR REPUBLICANS, THERE'S SOLACE IN THESE NUMBERS, TOO, BECAUSE DONALD TRUMP IS NO STRANGER TO THIS KIND OF A SET UP. LABOR DAY. BEING A LITTLE BEHIND. THAT WAS THE CASE IN 2016. HE TRAILED HILLARY CLINTON BY FIVE POINTS AT THIS POINT. WON THE ELECTION. 2020, HE TRAILED JOE BIDEN BY HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AT THIS POINT. DIDN'T WIN THE ELECTION, BUT CAME AWFULLY CLOSE IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THAT'S THE NEXT LEVEL. WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS THING. THIS IS WHERE IT'S WON OR LOST. SEVEN CORE BATTLEGROUND STATES. YOU SEE THEM IN GRAY. WE'RE GOING TO BE RETURNING TO THEM OVER AND OVER THE NEXT 63 DAYS BUT THERE'S ALL SORTS OF PATHS FOR EACH CANDIDATE HERE. AT LEAST POTENTIALLY. LET'S JUST SHOW YOU THE SIMPLEST AND MOST DIRECT. WE'LL START WITH HARRIS. THE POLLING IN THESE STATES, OBVIOUSLY IT IS CLOSE. IT IS EXCEEDINGLY CLOSE IN SOME BUT IT'S BEEN A TICK BETTER FOR DEMOCRATS IN WISCONSIN, PENNSYLVANIA MICHIGAN. HARRIS' SIMPLEST PATH IS PROBABLY JUST WINNING THESE THREE STATES. LET'S TURN THEM BLUE TO SHOW YOU WHAT THAT WOULD MEAN IN TERMS OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE. 270, THE MAGIC NUMBER. IN THE REPUBLICAN STANDPOINT, WHAT WOULD TRUMP'S BE? THEY WOULD HAVE TO WIN ONE OF THESE THREE. THE ONE THEY'RE MOST INVESTED IN IS PENNSYLVANIA. THEY THINK MAYBE THE FACT THAT HARRIS DIDN'T TAKE JOSH SHAPIRO, THE GOVERNOR THERE. MAYBE THAT WAS A MISSED OPPORTUNITY FOR DEMOCRATS. THE REPUBLICANS CERTAINLY RIGHT NOW SPENDING EXTREMELY HEAVILY HERE. IF TRUMP WERE TO SUCCEED IN FLIPPING PENNSYLVANIA, TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT THAT WOULD DO. FIRST OF ALL, YOU SEE HARRIS WOULD THEN HAVE TO COMPENSATE. EVEN IF SHE HAD WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN, SHE WOULD THEN NEED TO TAKE AT LEAST TWO OF THESE SUN BELT STATES. THAT'S BECAUSE PENNSYLVANIA IS THE LARGEST OF THE SWING STATES. 19 ELECTORAL VOTES. BUT THEN TRUMP'S PATH WOULD BE REASONABLY SIMPLE FROM HERE. WHAT WOULD HE HAVE TO DO IF HE GETS PENNSYLVANIA? NORTH CAROLINA, IT'S THE ONE BATTLEGROUND STATE HE WON IN 2020. HE WOULD NEED TO HOLD THAT. THEN GEORGIA. THE MARGIN WAS JUST UNDER 12,000 VOTES. TRUMP WON IT IN 2016. IF HE CAN WIN IT BACK IN '24 ALONG WITH HOLDING CAROLINA AND FLIPPING PENNSYLVANIA, HE'D BE THE ONE SITTING AT EXACTLY 270 ELECTORAL VOTES. SO ALL SORTS OF DIFFERENT PATHS HERE. I THINK YOU SEE FOR EACH CANDIDATE. I THINK IF THERE'S ONE BIG TAKEAWAY, FIRST AMONG EQUALS WHEN WE TALK ABOUT SWING STATES IS PENNSYLVANIA BECAUSE WITH 19 ELECTORAL VOTES, IT'S LARGER THAN ANY OF THESE OTHERS AND IF YOU CAN GET THAT, IF EITHER CANDIDATE CAN GET PENNSYLVANIA, THE PATH FROM THERE FOR THEM EACH BECOMES VERY SIMPLE. SO PENNSYLVANIA OF ALL THE SWING STATES LOOMS PROBABLY AS THE MOST CRUCIAL. >> KEEP HEARING THAT. PENNSYLVANIA, PENNSYLVANIA, PENNSYLVANIA. IF I HAD A WHITE BOARD, MAYBE I'D WRITE THAT DOWN THREE TIMES. THANK YOU. JOINING US NOW, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST AND POLLSTER AND MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST, CORNELL BELCHER. CHANGED AND CLOSE. TWO WORDS THAT MARK MURRAY OUR ELECTIONS GUY HERE IS USING, OUR POLLING GUY, IS USING TO DESCRIBE WHAT HE'S SEEING IN THE NUMBERS. YOU TOOK ISSUE WITH THAT THIS WEEKEND ON THIS SITE FORMERLY KNOWN AS TWITTER. EXPLAIN. >> WELL, LOOK. IF YOU ONE, THIS IS WHY I HATE THE NATIONAL AVERAGE POLLING. BECAUSE THE NATIONAL AVERAGE POLLING STUFF IS HOW WE GOT THE RED WAVE THAT WASN'T A REAL RED WAVE, RIGHT? AND IT'S A LOT OF BAD POLLING OUT THERE. MIXED THEM ALL UP. LET'S LOOK AT THE ABC POLL THAT RECENTLY CAME OUT. OR ACTUALLY THE ABC POLLING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF POLLS HERE. DONALD TRUMP IS CONSISTENTLY AT ROUGHLY 46%. WHERE IS DONALD TRUMP ON ELECTION DAY? OH, HE'S CONSISTENTLY AT ROUGHLY 47, 46%. SO DONALD TRUMP HAS SHOWN OVER TIME NOT IN POLLING, BUT ON ELECTION DAY, WHERE HE HAS A CEILING. AND HE DESPERATELY NEEDS TO GROW THAT. BUT IT SEEMS AS THOUGH HE HAS A PRETTY CAPPED OFF CEILING. AND WHAT WE SEE AND I LOVE THE REFERENCE TO 2016. HERE'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2016. YOU HAD REAL VIABLE THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES ON THE BALLOT IN THESE STATES IN 2016 AND REAL THIRD PARTY VOTING IN 2016 AND IN A FORCE TWO-WAY RACE, YES, HILLARY WAS ALWAYS UP. YOU KNOW, WELL IN THE FORCE TWO-WAY RACE. IT WASN'T IN 2016. SO THOSE THIRD PARTY VOTERS YOU SAW BREAKING OFF AND GETTING IN THE WAY OF HER ABILITY TO GET TO A MAJORITY. WHAT YOU SEE IN ALL POLLING RIGHT NOW IS THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES REALLY SHRINKING. WHEN HARRIS GOT IN THE RACE, A LOT OF THE, ESPECIALLY THOSE YOUNGER VOTERS WHO WERE HOLDING BACK FOR BIDEN WHO WERE JUST NOT ENERGIZED AROUND BIDEN, THEY BEGAN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE THIRD PARTY AND CONSOLIDATE AROUND HER. SO SHE HAS ROOM TO GROW AND SHE HAS TO INTRODUCE HERSELF. AND GROW OUT THAT SUPPORT AND KEEP THAT, THE REST OF THE VOTE OUT THERE BECAUSE AGAIN, NOT POLLING BUT ACTUALLY WHAT WE'VE SEEN ON SEVERAL ELECTION DAYS, DONALD TRUMP IS A 47% PROPOSITION. AND THE CASE IS CAN SHE CONSOLIDATE THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE ELECTORATE AROUND HER OR DOES SHE LOSE OFF TO THIRD PARTY VOTING. AGAIN, LET'S LOOK AT PENNSYLVANIA WHAT STEVE JUST POINTED OUT. AGAIN, GO TO 2016. HILLARY WAS OFF OF BARACK OBAMA'S MARK AND PENNSYLVANIA AND WISCONSIN ALMOST BY PRECISE NUMBER OF VOTERS WHO WERE BREAKING THIRD PARTY. THAT'S HOW DONALD TRUMP WINS. BY SUBTRACTION, NOT ADDITION. BECAUSE AGAIN, I THINK WE KNOW WHERE HE'S GOING TO BE ON ELECTION DAY. HE'S GOING TO BE AT ROUGHLY 47, MAYBE 48%. >> DOES HARRIS AT SOME POINT NEED TO BREAK WITH JOE BIDEN ON ONE ISSUE OR MULTIPLE ISSUES? JUST TO A LITTLE BIT MORE BREAKING WITH HIM TO PROPOSE HERSELF MORE AS THE CHANGE CANDIDATE? CHANGE CANDIDATE'S GOING TO WIN THIS ELECTION WHETHER THE CHANGE CANDIDATE IS SOMEBODY CHANGING FROM NOT THIS LAST ADMINISTRATION BUT THE ONE BEFORE THAT, FROM DONALD TRUMP OR DONALD TRUMP CHANGING FROM THIS LAST ADMINISTRATION. WOULD IT BEHOOVE HER TO MAKE A BREAK AND BE THE TRUE CHANGE CANDIDATE IN THIS CURRENT STATE? >> WELL, YOU MAKE A FINE POINT. WE'RE GOING TO GO TO ANOTHER ELECTION CYCLE WHERE VOTERS IN AMERICA ARE YET AGAIN LOOKING FOR CHANGE. I THINK THE VERY IDEA OF HARRIS IS CHANGE, RIGHT? SHE'S A WOMAN AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET. SHE'S A WOMAN OF COLOR AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET. VOTERS ARE ARGUING AND CLAMBERING FOR SOMEONE YOUNGER AND MORE YOUTHFUL. SHE'S CLEARLY THAT. SHE'S GOT TO WALK A TIGHT LINE BECAUSE SHE CAN'T GET TOO FAR AWAY FROM BIDEN BECAUSE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, SHE'S TIED TO BIDEN SO SHE'S GOT TO TALK ABOUT THEIR ACCOMPLISHMENTS. AS WE'VE TALKED ABOUT BEFORE, THERE ARE PLENTY OF ACCOMPLISHMENTS THAT THIS PRESIDENT HAS MOVED OVER TO FINISH LINE THAT ARE REALLY POPULAR. MORE POPULAR THAN HE WAS. SO SHE'S GOT TO TIE HERSELF TO THOSE BUT ALSO PIVOT TO THE FUTURE. I THINK THAT THE PIVOT TO THE FUTURE AND THE CONVERSATION ABOUT A BETTER AMERICA, A MORE UNIFIED AMERICA, A MORE FREE AMERICA IS A PERFECT CONTRAST WITH DONALD TRUMP WHO IS TRYING IN MANY WAYS TO TAKE THE