California Weather: Major Heat Incoming!

hey everybody Michael Snider California weather watch today is September 2nd right now we are looking at the mid level water vapor loop we're going to scroll back towards yesterday and you can see that upper level low as I go backwards in time then forward as we went through the day yesterday right off the Northern California coastline here did have some thunderstorm activity with it across Nevada and portions of Oregon and Arizona getting a bit of monsoon moisture here we did get one brief thunderstorm there across the transverse uh sorry the peninsul range here for Baja California but as that system moves through and you can also see it kicking off some lenticular cloud activity there off some of the northern Sierra Nevada and the Cascades of California there so I wonder if there was some images out there I should have checked social media for that one yesterday but you can see that as I scroll back and forth as this upper level low swingster we are going to rebuild the ridge here along the west coast of North America we're going to warm up quite dramatically we'll look at some of those details and we'll look at the exent forecast cuz looks like another trough may be trying to come towards the west coast of North America kind a fantasy forecast but we'll take a look at that anyway here are the current hazards the pink here is the red flag warnings we do have some fire danger across some the higher terrain portions of Northeast California Oregon and portions of Nevada and the ster red here is the excessive heat watch that is in effect for a lot of Southern California and some of the San waen Valley of course the desert areas except for the immediate coastal areas there of Southern California so elevated fire weather conditions here this is Sacramento National Weather Services starts tomorrow and goes through September 5th and you can see you know high temperatures it's warm out there it's hot it's you know still technically summer we got the low relative humidities out there so watch out keep your vehicles off dry grass you know what to do don't use your outdoor equipment that could create Sparks and this is Southern California here so you can see even Los Angeles warming up pretty dramatically at Palmdale Woodland Hills this was issued I believe yesterday here but this still applies we're definitely going to be warming up here across the area even the coastal regions will get a little bit warmer than they have been so this is thunderstorm outl look here for today you could get some thunderstorm activity here across the SI in Nevada I'll show you what the European model has to say about that here in a moment some severe weather possible across Elco Nevada as you can see and then you can see day two this pushes off towards Cedar City and encompasses some of Utah here and gets a bit further away from California so this is that upper level low we have been talking about for a while now and you can see this system spinning through on last night's GFS run which is the American weather model there global forecast system and then we build this Ridge well up into British Colombia here and you can see the strength of this Ridge is really going to warm us up this upper level low is not going to have too much of an effect but as we go on into the extended forecast towards the end of the weekend this would be about Sunday afternoon you can see the ridge retreating a bit off to the East and then this trough starting to move down towards the west coast of North America and this trough axis and of course where the ridge is going to be is going to mean everything as far as temperatures are concerned but you see on the GFS pretty Progressive there and that would cool us down and we would definitely take that as we head towards about the September 11th time frame there fantasy forecast right now but definitely something worth watching as we go off into the future be breaking that down day by day looking at the European ensemble mean this is the overall average of all 50 Ensemble members of the European model we we tweak and we perturb those initial conditions in those 50 emble members to try to correct for any errors in our misunderstanding of our initial conditions of the atmosphere in the initial conditions of the atmosphere so as this upper level low swings through here you can see the ridge is building really good model agreement on that and then we stroll off into the ex extended forecast a bit more and of course when you're running 50 of these the the average is really going to smooth things out but you can see there is some kind of troughing that is showing up as we go on into the September 9th 10th 11th time frame here and we'll continue to watch this day by day just kind of showing you the possibility for that trough coming here and maybe kicking that Ridge out a little bit now if we take a look at what's coming for today I want to kind of show you this the European is showing the thunderstorm potential across some of the Southern here in Nevada here and maybe even the transverse or the peninsula ranges here as well but as we scroll onine into the following day on Tuesday you'll notice not quite as much maybe a shower popping off there if we're lucky but yeah you can see the the reduction in thunderstorm coverage there as we go on in through Wednesday afternoon and this is the high resolution rapid refresh the 12z run that goes out 48 hours if I scroll through here you can see it mainly keeps on the East slopes here mostly across Nevada Oregan Idaho Utah as we go on in through Tuesday as well you can see that's mainly off to the East and not a threat to California most likely as we go through Tuesday afternoon tomorrow now taking a look at the GFS this is 2 meter temperature anomaly upper level low around suppressing the temperatures a bit for some of Central and Northern California but watch as we swing that upper level low through look at this just dramatic warmup that we're going to be going through as we go through the first week of September here I mean it's already really warm this time of year and these are on top of these average temperatures here and so pretty impressive heat coming up here as we go through the weekend potentially hanging on into next week but then that fantasy trough showing up at times and that would really cool down the state and at least drop things below normal and we'd see what kind of wind or precipitation chances that would have with it as we got closer to that system there we'll be breaking that down day by day and then look at that a return to some of the heat there on through the fantasy forecast don't have to worry about that yet but even Los Angeles International Airport you can see that we are warming things up here along the immediate Coast even a bit but of course Inland areas are going to be quite a bit warmer you can see going a little bit towards Burbank here National blend of models climb for temperatures up over 100° for Thursday and Friday this is Palm Springs check it out 115 on Thursday 114 on Saturday and remaining quite warm taking a look at Riverside as well look at that 106 and 106 on Thursday as and Friday and I had to point this out one more time the seasonal temperature outlook look at this is predicted on May 16th this is for June July and August of 2024 basically meteorological summer or those three months so you can see the West Coast heat South Southeast Northeast and equal chances across some of the upper Plains here so if we look at what actually happened look at how strikingly good this forecast was for the northeast southeast and the warmth along much of the West here so give a round of applause to The Climate Prediction Center they absolutely nailed that forecast and if we take a look at the national blend of models this is for today Monday September 2nd Labor Day and as we go through tomorrow look at the warm-up occurring toggling back and forth between today and tomorrow and then Wednesday Thursday you guys get the picture here Sacramento Valley sanen Valley warming up quite dramatically except for the immediate coastal areas here but again a little bit warmer than what we have been dealing with much of the summer so if we look at Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday you can see the national blood model is picking up on maybe some of that troughing coming through in this time frame as well so something to watch through the extended and the coffee pot fire is up over 10,000 acres now it is producing still quite a bit of smoke so if you're smelling some of that across some of the valley areas and some of this here Nevada here Transverse Range off into Nevada that is the reason why the coffee pot fire is the nasty one out there so taking a look here you can see there's again over 10,000 acres it did gr about 600 acres in the last 24 hours that was updated there yesterday yesterday evening so yep there you go um what else yeah I'm interested to watch to see what that next troughing does because we're going to really warm up here and it's really going to test some people's patience here for the heat across the region the good news is we're not looking at any big offshore Santa and or Diablo wind events as of right now but that can always change we're getting into that time of year where they really start to get in here but I didn't see anything like that through the extended forecast so good news on that front but anyway otherwise hope you guys are enjoying the channel if you want a nice affordable home weather station click on that link down below I will put it uh put that link down there you save 10% off by clicking that it's got its own lightning detection system with it and it stores all the data for you in the cloud very fun weather station but anyway I will talk to you guys tomorrow hope you're having a good day otherwise and I will see you then