California Weather: Isolated Storms and Heat!

hey everybody Michael Snider California weather watch today September 1st and right now we are looking at the mid-level water vapor loop we're going to play through yesterday here you can see our upper level low off the coastline here is the state of California where I am circling if we put this into motion and you can see that we did build up some thunderstorm activity across the Peninsular range up towards the Transverse Range desert areas just off to the north and east of the salt and seea across portions of Nevada and Arizona as well so we scroll through the afternoon and evening hours here and then you can see that finally come to an end but yeah we had a couple rounds of thunderstorm activity out there across the desert and you can see that little low pivoting towards the coastline here as we went through last night and very early this morning you can also see it start to spin up some convection here across the Oregon C in extreme Northern California this may kick off a few thunderstorms as well I'll show you that here in the high resolution models in a moment and apologize for yesterday I did go out chasing here across Washington State so I did not put out a video yesterday but that should be the exception from this point on and not the norm I should be doing these briefings on a daily basis for the most part taking a look at the Hanford National Weather Service talking about that coffee pot fire we've been talking about this for a while but it has a chance to start to bring some of the smoke down into the I5 Valley here and so we're watching for that I'll show you the high resolution model on that here towards the end of the video taking a look at Sunday's forecast here this is Sacramento National Weather Service and they do have this fire weather watch and there could even be a couple lightning strikes here as we go with that upper level load now pivoting towards the area so heads up for that does include Reno and gets right up towards South Lake Tahoe and extreme Northeast California now taking a look at potential high temperatures increased heat risk today through Friday Los Angeles check it out even Thursday and Friday mid 90s look at Palmdale 105 and yeah not too bad out there Santa Barbara you know much cooler there of course closer to the coastal areas but look at the Woodland Hills 112 there by Thursday in uh September 5th now taking a look at the isolated Mountain storms the SPC does not show this so I want to point this out and make it clear that there is a chance again for thunderstorm activity for tomorrow here across the higher training see Big Bear Lake is right there now if we take a look at the spc's official forecast this is for today it does not include California but just pretty close to the Border there here's Phoenix and there's Las Vegas right there and day two it does maybe include some of the East slopes of the Sierra Nevada and I'll show you some of that here in the weather models in a moment as well so here is upper level low this is at 18,000 ft or 500 mbars and you can see the white Islands to the bottom left you can see the state of California right here there is the upper level low swinging through here and keeping our temperatures a bit suppressed for some essential of Northern California but then you'll see the ridge rebuild here as we go on in through the mid portion of next week so we are going to remain warm and we're going to warm things back up again as you can see as I scroll through here this GFS is actually running hot off the presses but pretty substantial looking Ridge building as we going into the mid and the later portions of next week now if we take a look at the European what we're looking for here is thunderstorm activity we have the upper level low right there and you can see it does fire off maybe a couple showers across the sier Nevada here today out towards Las Vegas probably higher terrain there as well and then we scroll on in through Monday and you see this shower activity there so do not you know don't be surprised by that if you out AC cross some of the SI Nevada in the back country and even some of the peninsula range here and against maybe some of the Transverse Range some of the desert areas you can trigger a thunderstorm or two so just kind of keep that in the back of your mind and then if we scroll on in through Tuesday maybe one more shower there you see it right there c s Nevada so don't sleep on that stuff and then eventually it looks like it starts to come to a bit of an end here as we go through Wednesday maybe another shower there or two we'll see how that goes we'll revisit that again tomorrow but looking at lightning flash density potential the high resolution rapid refresh not quite as bullish on some of the shower activity as we go through this afternoon you notice it doesn't show anything for the SE Nevada keeps a little bit of potential across some of Nevada here but then as we go through late uh late tonight into tomorrow morning this again with that fire weather watch danger out there could produce you know maybe a dry lightning strike out there as we go on into tomorrow morning that and that pushes off and then you can see Monday afternoon maybe a couple strikes for the SI NADA again according to the high resolution model so looking at the GFS I want to kind of show you this because this is temperature anomaly you can see the upper level low keeping things supressed a bit here but for Southern California and even for that matter Some central California is above average but then take a look as that upper level look gets out of here we rebuild this Ridge across the region look at some of these temperatures well above average as we go on in through the upcoming week here now substantially so as we go through about what September 5th 6th time frame there pretty widespread heat for you know vast majority of the State of California maybe some of the coastal areas here will escape that but for the most part looks like pretty warm upcoming here and this is the r data for the GFS on the z z run you can see Los Angeles International it's just relatively cooler of course than other stations that are Inland but still pretty warm as we go through this upcoming week now if you go towards Burbank you can clearly see the hundreds are going to be returning we go to the mid and later portion of the week here and staying pretty warm through the extended forecast this is downtown Los Angeles actually 0.7 degrees above average for the month of August just want to point that out no precipitation was recorded there this is for Burbank check it out you can see that you know it is it is warmer in in the locations here and 0.7 again above average for the month coming uh for the month of August uh but also no precipitation was recorded now if we take a look at Palm Springs this is for the next two weeks as well you know pretty typical this time of year some pretty warm conditions to be had out there over the 14-day or 15-day time uh forecast on the GFS there and if we look at Palm Springs for the month of August actually two degrees above average look at all these 100 degree temperatures every single day had a high above 100° and no precipitation actually just a trace on August 1st there and there were two days you see that little three here that means a thunderstorm was reported just no precipitation was associated with those storms and we take a look at San Diego International Airport you know pretty close to the coastline here as well warming up quite nicely as we go towards the end of the week check it out maybe some 90s coming in here and then we take a look at San Diego 1.2 above average for the month of August uh no precipitation just a trace on a couple days there did they report a thunderstorm they did not but they did report dense fog on one of the days there that little tues there shows that so Tak a look at Fresno check it out you know warmth is upcoming here for the next two weeks as well and I want to kind of show you this because this is the climate Prediction Center nailing some of the extended forecast this is published back on May 16th 2024 this is for June July and August and you see the heat west coast south and Northeast and some of the southeast as well and then look at what actually occurred really nailed that forecast I mean you really got to give kudos to that very accurate forecast from the climate Prediction Center I mean that is just really nailing it here they had equal chances for this area so yeah pretty good stuff there and this is the experimental product from the climate Prediction Center it does show some excessive heat moderate as we go on into the first week of September and you can see you know the excessive heat slight does include much of the State of California and Arizona and Nevada for that matter as well and this kind of threw me for a loop here risk a high winds I don't see much here I just see kind of the typical dial cycle of as things warm up and some of these stronger winds come through so I'm not sure why they did that I went ahead and took a look on the European there but it looks like I don't I don't see any strong Santa and a wind events is I guess what I'm trying to say here just kind of the typical dial cycle where you get the Westerly coming in here and you can see them kind of flooding through the bay areas The Valleys heat up as you go through the evening and nighttime hours and whatnot but I don't see any big wind event here coming across the state of California so always watching for those Santa Ana wind events and some of the Diablo wind events and these offshore wind events once we get into the month of September don't see anything yet now taking a look at the 500 milars I checked this as well to kind of see if anything was going on there goes our upper level low Ridge rebuilds here and we do have a little bit of an upper level low that starts to show up as we go through the extended forecast I don't maybe they're thinking that will increase their gradient a little bit there but anyway I digress trying to figure out their mind on that one now taking a look at the 2 meter maximum temperatures here so with the upper level low we keep things suppressed here on through tomorrow a bit again for some of Central and Northern C for of the Sacramento Valley but then we start to really bounce things back on Tuesday Wednesday Thursday you guys get the picture here hundreds widespread returning for the valley areas and even warming up on the coastal areas as well and we go Friday Saturday Sunday and maybe a little bit of a hope for some cool down as we go on in through the end of next weekend now the coffee pot fire I we talked about this at the beginning of the video here and this thing has become quite the nuisance it's producing quite a bit of smoke across the SI Nevada it's getting down to some of the valley areas even out towards the Coastal Range as well and if we put that into motion you can kind of see it is producing quite a bit of smoke so if you are smelling smoke it is most likely from the coffee pot fire you can kind of pinpoint your exact location here and you know see where that smoke is moving that's 8 meter above ground smoke and you may be seeing smoke on a much wider basis than that because surface smoke of course is much more rare versus what is going on through the upper levels of the atmosphere but if we look here at the coffee pot fire it did grow by about 12200 Acres but I don't think this has been updated for a while so it's probably even larger by now because it is pretty in quite a bit of smoke but anyway uh again um yeah I hope you guys are having a good day uh watch out high high terrain there thunder potential across some of the SI Nevada but otherwise we aren't looking at anything other too crazy here for the shortterm forecast except for the Heat and then you know and potentially lasting for an extended period but we will continue to watch things we'll break things down day by day hope you guys are enjoying the channel click like And subscribe we'll do this all again tomorrow and I will talk to you guys then