Fri 8/30/24 - US weather | A Gulf hurricane could be in the cards | Very dynamic week ahead

[Music] welcome to your Friday edition of forecast lab the very last episode of August let's take a look out there in the tropics things are picking up a little bit if we look at the National Hurricane Center 7-Day Outlook we've got a 40% chance of development around the leward islands into the Caribbean and this could have some long-term Prospect effect going until late next week this is still quite a ways away but that could bring a system into the Bay of cichi or the Western Gulf or we could even see recurvature to the north into Florida so those are some possibilities we're going to have to look for also this has come up to 20% chance out there near the cape verie islands and this other little Disturbed area of weather off of Texas a quick look at the more technical products the GFS forecast showing this development near the leeward islands around Monday and moving into the Caribbean now this is just one possible scenario we could see more development or we could see none at all so these models are a little bit iffy getting out to the extended but we'll have to watch the Caribbean and of course the Southern North Atlantic some possibilities there going until late next week now you're probably wondering what you're looking at here this is the integrated Vapor transport kind of a combination of both the integrated moisture through the troposphere and also the wind flow so it's kind of a measure of moisture advection but it helps to make these tropical systems really stand out and we've got the sheer vectors through the lower and middle troposphere and you can see one little disturbance right there west of the cape fry Islands but that's September 8th that's quite a ways out something going on out there around Western Cuba we take that view further west and we've certainly got something coming together near the Yucatan that will'll be moving into the Gulf around September 9th or 10th so I have to keep a close eye on the weather there in the Gulf of Mexico because that could be our next major tropical Cyclone let's return to the lower 48 and look at this evening's weather we've got a Canadian cold front moving into the Great Lakes area into the Midwest and all the way down to Oklahoma and Texas we typically don't see strong fronts this far south in late August but we are getting into kind of an anomalous weather pattern we're going to cover that a little bit later during the forecast segment but you can see temperatures already down into the 70s and lower 80s in the Southern High Plains plenty of precipitation along that frontal boundary all the way from the Great Lakes into Texas and quite a bit through New Mexico and Arizona this evening in the northeastern us we have thunderstorms on our mines slight risk in the thumb region of Michigan we call it the thumb because this looks like a oven mitt and there is the thumb extending from Detroit up to sagona and Flint then we go down the frontal boundary marginal risk all the way down to the oarks further down to the South quite a bit of hot weather from Ohio down to Tennessee we're looking at he indexes up to 102 around Cincinnati and Charleston this afternoon there's a look at the temperatures early this evening 95° at Columbus It was 95 earlier at Cincinnati they've cooled off to 92 and the thunderstorms have cooled off the temperatures further south remember a couple days ago we had temperatures well up into the 100s at Nashville but much cooler very pleasant 80° but as we go further south picking up another Corridor of heat from this complex of thunderstorms in North Carolina extending across Colombia and down into Southern Georgia some very unsettled conditions in the Gulf Coast region you can see this one boundary pushing off of the coast near Tampa and as you go further west this resembles a small tropical storm certainly nothing like that going on right now but it is a strong tropical disturbance let's take a look at the upper air charts there's 700 milars definitely showing a closed circulation centered near Lake Charles the 850 milar chart also showing a closed circulation between Houston and bont the surface chart looking like this not really seeing a closed circulation there and part of that is due to the fact that all of this convection over the past few days has dumped outflow which of course sits at the surface and causes a pressure anomaly so the pressures are running a little bit higher kind of wipes out any indication of a low pressure area the Streamline fields from the numerical models do indicate a possible closed circulation well offshore but up to the north you can see it's pretty much embedded in easterly flow heading out to the Southern Plains we continue yet another day of rather wet and cool weather and we've got the introduction of that Canadian front which is sinking all the way to Ardmore Oklahoma through Joplin Missouri and all the way down towards Fort Stockton into the Davis Mountains as well up to the north you can see the effects of that dry cool advection kind of shutting down the convection all the way from witcha to tukum Cary so most of the deeper convection lies along that frontal boundary and out there in Arizona Western New Mexico getting quite a bit of activity from the White Mountains out towards the Mogan Rim in the Northern Plains some rather cool and dry conditions however more cold weather is on the way we're going to show you a very potent system for Saturday they've already got Gale warnings in effect for Lake Superior out to the West though rather warm you can really see the difference there between Minnesota where it's in the 70s and in the high plains where temperatures are running close to 90° part of that is due to the fact that much of the cold air is being swept to the southeast rather than to the south in the southwestern us well we mentioned that increase in Monsoon activity but also the combination of the front pushing into that region and the enhanced upper level flow further to the West no we've got a wildfire out there that's going to be probably east of Fresno let's go in for a closer look at that we start out with the infrared imagery overnight there's a hot spot there within the Sierra Nevadas we go into the day time and quite a bit of smoke the winds pick up out of the southeast really start Fanning those flames and there's a big burst right there boom going in for a closer look there on the the Wildfire systems that is going to be the coffee pot fire that appears to be burning pretty well within the mountains maybe not the foo Hills but well within the mountains so fortunately probably not affecting too many people the valleys and populated areas those are going to be out here and that's going to be pretty much east of Visalia looking at the weather across the Northwestern us quite a bit of wildfire smoke and some ongoing fires around but and Boseman back towards Leon there is a large heat advisory this weekend in the interior of Oregon and Washington east of the Cascades Bend kenowick yaka and Spokane looking for temperatures in the mid to Upper 90s fire weather watch for Sunday across Northeastern Wyoming as strong southeasterly winds develop so that's our sum of the lower 48 and you can see that brown smudge right there indicating the Wildfire problems heading into the North Pacific a meager North Pacific High just west of Washington then we get into a stormy pattern there in the Gulf of Alaska up to the north the tail end of a frontal boundary from Central Yukon into Southwestern Alaska we do have some of the first winter weather advisories in Canada that that's going to be along the Dempster Highway which connects Dawson with innovic they're looking for up to 1 in of snow it's going to be very wet snow and maybe a little bit of freezing rain as well a well-developed weather system up there in the Arctic that's going to bring a fresh blast of cold Westerly winds then we drop down south into Canada itself a very dry Westerly flow across the central part of the country and we've got the usual air quality advisories extending from hayy River all the way down towards Northern Saskatchewan and Central Manitoba no problems out east little bit of rain on the way but no hazards issued by Environment Canada all right let's take a look at our forecast starting with a more technical diagnosis of what's Happening a really good place to start is the precipitable water we see those amounts running pretty high which is very normal for summer about 2 to 2.5 in all the way from the Western Gulf Coast region into the Ozarks and you can see the effects of that dry air advection really clearing out the moisture along that frontal boundary that we just mentioned also a little bit of residual dry air through the Carolinas into the northeastern us that's due to the effects of a couple rounds of cold air that moved through that region and then looking out in the western us plenty of dry air precipitable water running about2 to3 in in the Great Basin area but down to the South there's some of that Monsoon air mass originating from Old Mexico bringing the precipitable waters up to about 8 to 1.2 in then just a quick look at the forecast of the precipitable water you can see that moisture Ridge remains in place across Louisiana and Texas so with the addition of those boundaries sinking South that's going to translate to a very rainy pattern especially in the Eastern periphery from Houston all the way to Pensacola over the next week or so we're looking for the potential for 7 to 10 in along the gulf coast region the upper level charts also very important this is the midtropospheric chart at 500 mbar about 5 kilm or 18,000 ft we see a strong belt of prevailing westerlies from western Canada into the maritimes across the US itself mostly affected by this large subtropical Ridge broken up into a couple of subtropical highs one in the Great Basin area so no wonder we had those very dry conditions remember that last chart we had 02 to3 in for precipitable water that's due to the effects of substenance large area of sinking motion and that really dries things out further to the South there's the reflection of that low pressure area around Lake Charles then as we go further to the east we can see a trace of anticyclonic flow across the Carolinas of course it would be helpful to look at the closeup 500 mbar chart because this has a little bit more subs synoptic scale right there we can see the anticyclone across Nashville and there's the pressure area Lake Charles and then the other anticyclone across Boise down towards awaii and Elco so we take that into the weekend and into next week you can see the effects of that ridging right there more subsidence and warmer weather that's going to be associated with that heat wave in the area east of the Cascades Northerly flow through the central part of the country and a continuation of that subtropical High across the Southeastern us not enough to shut down all the convection as we go into Monday and Tuesday a series of troughs moves into the Northwestern us couple ridges one across the Great Lakes area one on the western US Coast western Canada as well and this is just kind of a progressive pattern little bit of Ridge building in the southwestern us that may start shutting down some of the monsoon activity as we get into next weekend talking about the seventh and eth but that's a very strong upper level high and of course as we get towards the eth and 9th we're going to start looking for the potential for something to come into the Gulf of Mexico from the tropics so let's go ahead and look at that forecast these are very special charts you don't get this anywhere this is my interpretation of the GFS run we do this on every episode now this is not the final forecast this again is just an interpretation of the GFS model the European model will have slightly different results but this will give us an idea of what the air masses are doing what kind of systems we have it's very educational and as far as I know nobody analyzes the numerical models to this extent so you're getting something very special here so we start out with tonight there's that frontal system in Oklahoma in Kansas and that continues sagging to the south then we start the next convective day Saturday we've got this next weather system coming south through the dtas going to be kind of cool and blustery in North Dakota down to the South though Downs slope conditions looking for a high of 92 at Rapid City and 94 at Philip good chance of rain across the southern us once again especially as we get that heating there it is Monsoon rains breaking out all the way from south of New Mexico into Arizona it's going to be quite rainy there in much of the higher elevations of Arizona Heat Wave up to the north there as we mentioned in Washington and Oregon looking for a high of 96 at Pasco on Saturday and 99 for Sunday Spokane 92 on Saturday 94 on Sunday pretty strange that they get all that awful heat very similar to what we have here here in Texas guess the humidity is not quite as bad the Storm Prediction Center does have a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for much of the Mid-Atlantic region from New York all the way down to Pennsylvania and into Virginia that's going to be in the vicinity of this warm front and in the warm conveyor belt as well the main risk will be convective downburst winds isolated large hail that could be possible as well then we go into Sunday this Canadian outbreak continues to push to the South I forgot to show you but as it went through late Saturday look at that very potent system on Lake Superior yeah we're getting into that season where it starts getting gradually more and more stormy on the great lakes and kind of Peaks around November I know we probably have a few Gordon Lightfoot fans out there and you're probably well aware of the Edmund Fitzgerald that's a October and November type situation okay then we go into Sunday here's how things look there's the afternoon we're looking for a large marginal risk of severe thunderstorms all across the northeastern us into the Carolinas this will just be kind of a very warm humid sultry air mass with increased bulk shears entering the picture so we're going to have a kind of a elevated possibility of outflow winds with isolated hail on any of these storms best chances for rain on Sunday basically from Boston down through the southern Appalachians across Washington DC and back into Texas starting to warm up there in Montana looking for a high of 93 at Billings however to the east very cool conditions cooling off from the low 80s Saturday to the upper 60s on Sunday for high temperatures as this burst of cold air comes Southeast then going into Monday cold wave working into the northeastern us looking for highs in the 60s and Upstate New York extensive rains all across the southeast all the way to bont New Orleans the 3-day precipitation totals up to this point will run about 3 to 5 in from just east of Houston to New Orleans and about 1 to 2 Ines surrounding that from Houston Alexandria to gulport rainy weather pattern continues in West Texas you can see quite a bit of it right there all the way into the Davis Mountains and into Northern Mexico Heatwave moves back out into the Northern Plains looking for a high of 97 at Rapid City and 90° at Denver forgot to draw it but there's a leide trough starting to set up there around Denver continued Stormy in Texas for Tuesday cool in the Northeast looking for highs in the 60s and 70s that's a very strong high for this time of year it's going to be located right there that's going to be 1031 mbars that's quite rare for the first week of September very wet along the Gulf Coast with that northeasterly flow in place hot once again in South Dakota looking for a high of 97 at Rapid City before this next cold air mass Drive South and this is the rest of the period continued strong Northerly component in the Central and Eastern us that will keep things mild and rainy in many places drier up to the north and we go all the way into next weekend Saturday and Sunday this is when we're going to have to watch the gulf and a very impressive frontal system again pretty rare for early September across much of the Mid-Atlantic region and we are getting into that time of the year where we need to start covering some of the educational stuff such as synoptic scale systems this right here is a bar Clinic weather system we're going to see a lot more of these over the coming months those start out with a thermal gradient indicated by the blue lines those tighten up and we start seeing cyclogenesis as those develop further the big thing to keep in mind is where you find the jet stream when it's welldeveloped like what you see right here you're going to find the jet stream poleward or on the cold side of the cold front and on the cold side of the warm front as well so look for that when we go through the upper level charts and you can use that in Reverse fashion to find the surface fronts you look at the jet stream and you kind of surmise that the front are to the South and also in an area very close to the stronger jet stream level winds so we're going to go over that over the coming month or so and we'll cover a little bit of anaf fronts and C fronts and we'll try to cover a little bit of hand analysis and upper Dynamics maybe not in the very next episode but certainly over the coming weeks so stay tuned and hope we see you back for another edition of forecast lab and that is all for your Friday episode of forecast lab thank you very much for watching and just just as a reminder please let me know in the comments how the weather's been in your part of the country anything unusual interesting anomalous please share that with us and I'll refer to those as we go into the program for next week hope you have a great weekend take care and we will see you soon 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