NFL Week 1 2024 Picks, Best Bets & Predictions | X’s and O’s Football Picks Show Doc’s Sports

welcome ladies and gentlemen to the A's and O's Young Guns show here this is Griffin Murphy alongside me is August young and we are from docsports.com in this show we are going to give you guys a full-blown breakdown of some interesting key matchups we have eyed out this show will be recorded every single Thursday at 11 PM Pacific Standard Time 11:00 a.m. Pacific Standard time I'm sorry so ladies and gentlemen this video will be uploaded every Friday morning we'll give you guys a Full Slate on college football as well as NFL Aug and myself will be breaking down four matchups in this show two NFL two college that we have eyed out with poise as well August is going to light up a nice bonus teaser to end the show up so we're here to give you guys our absolute Best Bets expertise across all spectrums team outlooks overviews strength and weaknesses and of course some a little bit of Personality here from the two Young Guns let's rip right into game number one we're going to start on the college football side of things here opening up we have the battle of the rivals Iowa State rolling into Iowa City to play the Hawkeyes this game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. Saturday September 7th Iowa they are currently laying three points in this contest with a total sitting at 35 and a half points I'm going to jump right into this game and as soon as I do I'm going to pass the Baton right to August let's jump into it entering this matchup the Hawkeyes they have won seven of their last eight meetings with the Cyclones what we can remember about Iowa last season they had the most horrendous offense in football they were brutal to watch although their defense absolutely Stout opened up Iowa opened up this season beating Illinois State 40 to zero absolute bloodbath and my God they transfer quarterback out of Michigan PA menar mcma come out hot paade went 21 for 31 251 yards in the air and three touchdowns I expect a very similar defense out of the Hawkeyes club and as we saw in this matchup and now you got Kade at that quarterback spot this team could be lethal across both sides of the field Iowa state does return all five starters on the offensive line from last season but here's the take they were the second lowest graded offensive line in the power five and the second lowest in the nation Iowa state did not impress me whatsoever on the offensive side of the ball against North Dakota in their most recent matchup and the last time these two sque squads faced off Iowa took that matchup 20-3 I expect a very similar matchup due to the fact that this is a rivalry game but considering the fact as I mentioned you got Kade at that quarterback spot Iowa taking seven of their last eight against the Cyclones and now you have that legit quarterback that could really push and move this hawkey club I love Iowa here and I'll be laying the three points uh August what is your take right now with this matchup what do you think brother first of Griff I love that man Iowa minus three I'm I'm with you on that but I'm going to go a different way with this one so look at Iowa right Bleak offense in the first half against Illinois State 21 Point favorites in that game holy but how about the second half they hang 34 in that second half man they only exceeded that number once you know full game last season only one time they exceeded that number now I'm not sure if that's a sign of things to come here but you look at Iowa State they failed to cover as 21 Point favorites against North Dakota crazy they actually allowed UND D to have almost 38 minutes of possession time in that game that's crazy minus three I like the number but I don't like the fact that ISU struggled in a matchup versus North Dakota Iowa one of the better HomeField advantages in all of the teams from a pure metric standpoint especially when we adjust for strength of schedule it's a hard one but if I have to go one way or the other I do lean with the over here at 34 and a half I'm fading the move actually from the opener which I believe was 37 and a half this thing's come down I do get the move to the under with 37 being a key number here in lowc scoring games I'm a little hesitant as it's you know about that above that 34 as well which is fairly key in these lowc scoring games but we haven't had too much resistance here I still like the over here so I'm going to be taking it at 34 and a half and that is where I currently sit with this one Griff yeah I like it August you know that was something else I was kind of keen out as well rivalry games you know they're either back and forth back and forth type of thing where there's nobody scoring or there's a lot of points so I'm not going to disagree with that play whatsoever so there you guys have it game number one now let's jump right into game number two we're still on the college football side of things ladies and gentlemen and we have Baylor rolling into Utah to play the Utes Utah's currently a 14 1/2 Point favorite and the current total on this matchup is 542 points both teams rolling into this matchup one and0 Utah just completely discombobulated Southern Utah in a 49-0 victory last season Utah was six-1 at home with an overall record of eight and5 so we know they play very well football at rako stadium and it's never an easy task for anybody to come in there and play when it comes to Utah they are 4-2 against the spread as home favorites last season season and as favorites in general four and3 against the spread so Baylor they open up the season with more of a tuneup game this was a mentality game in my eyes against Tarlton state that game Baylor coach head coach Dave Renda stated in that game we used 50 to 60% of our offense they totally worked on their struggle that was running the ball up the middle then you look at Utah they have a monstrous defensive line their front sevenish strong so this is going to be a massive shock wave for Baylor here in this game we're still early but as stated all the hype around FSU this season opening up 0 and2 with two brutal losses 15 points in a game like this is a lot of points for me especially with the intensity that these players bring into these games early on in the season the main factor is going to be for me can Baylor sustain the solid Run game and can they convert the offensive side with decoin Finn at that quarterback spot the short game is going to be massive for Baylor here can Jackson and Hawkins pull these linebackers outside enough for these quick routes the quick Slants the quick the quick floats everything along those lines the main gate is going to be for Baylor opening up that middle getting those linebackers out and shoving the ball right up the gut that is the thing the plan for Baylor in this matchup is keep the ball out of Cameron rising's hands for Utah the way Baylor opened up the season now getting 15 points in this contest 14 and a half my eyes seen this being a dragged out game no deep balls work the middle see if they can open up the Run game which opens up a total opportunity for in this matchup so against Utah again Utah dominant defense Baylor elusive off offense there should be a clock management game in my eyes for both sides with the incentive of a low-scoring game so give me the under here August at 54 and a half points as my total on this one how you see this one brother yeah man so sort of piggybacking on what you said here the fact that this one's over two touchdowns is really interesting to me to me I mean when you look at percentages of numbers here in college football right landing near 14 we've got 710 and obviously 14 itself those all account for more than 50% of all college football margins so we you know we're over that two touchdowns which is key this opened at plus 17 has been bet down here I still feel like there is some value though on the Baylor side there still a lot to be known about these two teams who both absolutely beat down on their opponents as you mentioned in week one obviously Baylor took care of tton State 45 to3 Utah with that shut out of Southern Utah 490 but look in my opinion Baylor they're going to be one of the more improved teams this season we still have a lot to learn from these two but remember this game came down to the wire last season 20 to13 right Baylor were at home in that spot the line was seven though should we really have this thing open up at 17 here and still be above full two touchdowns I'm not so sure so I still have questions about the Utah defense too even though we all know they're Elite and there was that week one shut out there's still a few leaky things I'm seeing here um Can Baylor test that not so sure but at plus 14 and a half right now better believe I'm okay at playing that number to find out Griff yeah you know what August and we talked about it prior to the show it is a lot of points this is Baylor it's not like we're talking about a team like Tarlton state or South Dakota State we're talking about Baylor this is a big school this is a team who's been in this environment this atmosphere this isn't like them flying across the map so as I talked about with you prior to the show if I had to lean aside I'm leaning Baylor as well man but let's jump right into the NFL baby it is week one let's get jacked up and we're going to start this game right off on Monday Night Football this game kicks off at 8:00 p.m. eastern time Monday September 9th we've got the New York Jets rolling into San Fran to play the ners San Francisco is currently a 4 and a half Point favorite with a total sitting at 43 and a half this is not let me State going to be the same 49ers team from that we' seen last season I want to open up with the 49ers they had perhaps the most elusive defense in all football last year well now Nick soron takes over at that defensive coordinator position before I get into their defense though let's talk about Brock dirty pie is pie going to be the same Brock pie we saw last season probably not in my eyes going back to the Super Bowl last season you really have to eye out Kansas City they blew up that offensive line all game long New York they have a very strong front seven on the defensive side and could cause Havoc for this Niners offense yes they are Dynamic they've got pie they've got auk they've got mcaffry but the offensive line does not control this defense if they do not do so you're dealing with Aaron Rogers on the other side of the football yet we have not seen Aaron Rogers in this Jets uniform complete a full game yet so what does that put us and where does that put us in this metric the Jets they have a very good run game with Bree Hall across a strong offensive line this game here is something we don't necessarily want to take action on when it comes to a side there are too many question marks how how many liabilities are we looking at is Aaron Rogers going to be a well-coordinated quarterback for this team probably but rolling into week one with a brand new team that he's never played with there's a lot of variables you have to ask yourself there then you could ask yourself San Francisco we do know they don't have the strongest offensive line and on top of that what are we going to expect out of Brock pie now the fact that well this is a brand new season they're not in the Super Bowl anymore we have a total sitting right now at 43 a half which seems like the market way overpriced this matchup give me the under here with way way too many liabilities across both sides of the field I think we're going to see a lot of different mechanisms in this game airing the ball out short screens running the ball up the gut we're going to see a lot of ways that both of these two teams see where they're suited see where they're fitted out and there's a lot of mismatches across the field but at the same time it also coordinates itself into a clock management game which opens up that opportunity August for drilling the under 43 and a half points in this game how do you see this one my man yeah I love the breakdown man so you got to love this one right fun NFL's back we got Aaron Rogers returning from injury here against the NFC Champs I mean super excited however let's get to it man Rogers I love me some Aaron Rogers but the dude's 40 years old right he's coming off injury I mean look this kind of goes into your like in the under so I'm actually leaning the San Francisco side the public narrative is that this is the bet the best Jets team that we've seen in years right I don't necessarily disagree with that premise I'm of the opinion though always you got to show me first with seen it time and time again across all sports where teams with a ton of hype they fall flat on their faces we'll see what happens here personally I think the Market's too high on the Jets I don't usually like moving against markets this opened at Six is down at 4 and a half there's not too much in terms of value being swallowed up with that move from the 5 and a half to four and a half it did drop to four and three and a half at some sharp books I personally took some at those prices with a little bit of favorite money line on the on the 49ers back at 4 and a half It's Tricky if I was looking to play the full game side if you're watching this I would probably hold off and see if we get a four again I think that's a solid Buy on San Francisco you got to remember this is a 49ers team that ranked first I know it's they're a different team but they still ranked first last season in areas such a yards per play margin versus their opponents they also including yards per game margin they were first in the league they dominated when it comes to over a win margin with a score differential of six and a half points per game the only concern for me is that they have been overvalued by the market especially at home they went seven and three straight up but only three and seven against the spread and they'll be missing Trent Williams here now still I do like San Francisco I personally think the first half is the way to go with Aaron roders and this uncertainty I do think he could get his Groove as the game goes on but that also likes leans towards your under as well I think it's going to take take time for them to get going the best look for me here is looking at the 49ers in the first half and if you can get a money line of 170 minus 170 or less I love it I think San Francisco take care of business here in the first half and as I mentioned we got old man Rogers he's one of the best to do it but again I got to see it first man and Griffin that is where I'm sitting with this one I love it August you know that was sneaky in just for everybody that doesn't that doesn't know obviously me and August we don't know this none of this is scripted we don't know who each other has prior to the show we kind of just roll into it so we bounce back and forth we hear each other's analysis breakdowns and I love that play absolutely man there's too many liabilities on both sides of the field and what we do know for sure is this San Francisco offense has played together so we already know there's going to be Charisma there we know mcaffry is going to be running the football we know the ball's going to be aired out auk just got a beautiful contract so I love that especially coming out hot but ladies and Gentlemen let's jump into our last game definitely not least and then we're going to get into August's bonus teaser let's jump right into this match up and this is one of my favorite ones of the week that is not going to be on my premium selections but if it is on my premium selections don't be surprised because I do really like this play Let's jump right into it we've got Jacksonville rolling into Miami to play the Dolphins the Dolphins are currently laying three and a half points in this matchup and we got a total at 49 A2 this game will be kicking off Sunday September 8th at 1M now let's jump right into it Miami comes into this game with nearly the exact offense they had last season and we are aware the majority of the time this is the most explosive offense in all of football you've got Tua you've got Tyreek you've got Wadd you've got speed on speed on speed so what we have to ask ourselves is a simple question can Jacksonville secondary handle this receiving Court Jacksonville has two new corners this season and they have a third who they just picked up who will be getting a start so they have three guys that have never played together all off the free agent uh list both picked up as free agents and now you're asking them to cover Tyreek Hill the best wide receiver in all of football on top of waddle who's also an absolute Dynamic Speedster Jacksonville they're strong on the pass rush but Tua in the pocket is never easy to sack he's quick on his feet he can throw on his legs he can throw on the move and he always manages to find a guy open because he has so much Dynamic speed across the edges the Dolphins last season they went s-2 at home the Jags were 5 and three on the road in my eyes the Dolphins offense is too potent and there are too many liabilities for this Jaguars team I'm laying the three and a half here with Miami I also like the idea of buying a point down with Miami to shave that field goal and taking them at either three or two and a half so those are some options for you guys as well but my play Rolling at you guys right now is taking the Miami Dolphins laying the three and a half points August what are you thinking here my man I love it man we have our first kind of disagreement here I guess let's do it dude I like it so the way that that you're talking I see the angle I get it and I think a lot of people see it that way and I think there's a lot of split here so my thing on it is this Miami gets a lot of love in the market due to that explosive offense you know they they're they're one of the best in the league plenty of highlight plays last season but how good is this team really is my question including their ceiling right they looked awful to end the season last year lost three straight both straight up against the spread they got smoked in their playoff game they got bounced out there and a bit of a controversial take here I have Tua and Trevor lence in my ratings ranked completely even a quarterback that's going to ruffle some people up the wrong way but I have them even in my ratings and I think there's an element of improvement there with Trevor Lawrence more than the res Tu now as Pro Sports betters obviously we try and speculate ahead of the mar Market I truly believe there is more upside with him this season now this line open three and a half mainly sits three and a half everywhere still despite clear money and liability here coming in on the Miami side that the sports books aren't budging now I will say there are some Far and Away sharp Sports books that I have uh lines from which is not out there and I'm telling you that's moved to three already so they're sitting at three which is showing sharp action here on Jacksonville now for what it's worth week one visiting dogs they also tend to do slightly better at covering the spread uh going way back it's not something to blindly tail but week one visiting dogs covering about 51 a half% of the time which shows a slight shade towards home favorites early in the season I think we get a lot of scoring here though which brings a ton of variance and that's usually a positive thing when you're looking at getting points so I see your angle but I am going to be taking the Jacksonville Jaguars Griff and I'm going to take him plus three and a half here before this thing bounces down to three that's where I see it going hey I love it man you know and there's never anything wrong with disagreement you know everybody has their own way of seeing these markets everyone has their own way of their angles their picks and I don't disagree whatsoever this is definitely going to be a very hardfought game across both sides and you have two very similar teams you know you've got Trevor Lawrence at that quarterback spot you got Travis Travis etn you have a very good wide receiver core with this Jaguars team so again that also opens up that total with the secondary being a little bit iffy and liability eyes in my in my circumstance with the dolphins for going against this Jaguars team you could you'd see a lot of points being there I mean who remembers Miami they put up 70 points last season against I don't even know who it was it was just a complete embarrassment embarrassment and you know the Jacksonville Jaguars they're more than capable of putting 20 30 points up on the board against anybody in the NFL so I love the disagreement brother I love it and you know what next week we're going to chime in and fight about this one and see who gets that W yo I want to jump in real quick on that too man like so another angle as we just been speaking about this I actually think I don't know what the line is I'll have to check um but I still think there might be an angle here on the first quarter to go over first quarter over with the scripted plays with these two offenses as you were saying I think that could be a cool side angle too I could see a some quick easy points in this first quarter I love that and that also opens up so just so everybody knows we are going to be closing this show up with August's bonus teaser but rolling into each show as we mentioned we record this Thursday at 11:00 a.m. Pacific Standard Time this show will be uploaded on Fridays we will be giving up hot top of the week players of the week players to keep an eye out on everything along those lines and we will be continuously throwing in different bets along those lines so just as August toss in you guys as I'm breaking down a game like that August finds action on a first quarter play always keep your eyes out and that is why we love having you guys tune in August hit him with that bonus teaser brother all right so we're gonna do this every week when it comes to bonus teasers guys so this is purely mathematical based on finding uh the correct expected value there is no narrative to these this is simply not numbers that's that's the way these work if you bet these blindly through the course of the Season you have a very very high probability of turning a profit and it's just about teasing through key numbers especially in low totals these are these are situations where it's been proven Sports books don't even allow them at some places they over juuce it um but I'm going to give you what you want to take here and why so the Bengals minus 8 I would tease them down to two they're at home versus the Patriots and we got the Dallas Cowboys plus 2 and a half I would tease them up to Plus 8 and a half on the road at Cleveland you're you're maximizing the key numbers going through three seven uh just make sure minus 120 or less on that Sixpoint teaser if you're paying minus 125 or higher you're not getting the value there and you're actually worse than a break even Point some books are still doing minus 115 minus 110 but Sixpoint teaser Bengals down to minus two Cowboys up to plus eight and a half I love it brother I love it and everybody just so you know you guys we've give we've given out our four picks along with that bonus teaser going further there may be some weeks where we have three college football one NFL it may be four NFL zero College it's going to diff differentiate itself every single week but you guys have our five picks rolling into this matchup you have our intuition our analysis our breakdowns everything calculated risk you know this is me and August's first show rolling together X's and O's baby and you guys best believe we will be back next week four and let's let's go four and0 baby you guys never get the brooms out because we are ready to roll we we appreciate every one of you guys for tuning in I am Griffin Murphy this is August young we are docsports.com and we will see you guys next week