i'm sorry

hey everyone me Kevin here I want to apologize for a few things number one the turbulence that it seems like in my YouTube titles and so I'm going to try to be a little bit more clear with the YouTube titles but also we got to talk about what the Federal Reserve just said and what it could mean going forward I do also have to apologize for one more thing I did spend a lot of money on this 3D printed rust MP5 and I think you should too #n sponsored but it's okay because we just doubled our money on call options this morning look at this baby TMF call option $131 entry price boom 260 exit let's go it's like a 99% move uh that was a call option this morning remember we got a coupon code expiring today what a what a date I have a double on a coupon code expiration day okay listen let's talk fed okay so here's why I think uh especially after this jobs report this morning the jobs report this morning you know it's going to get revised down I'm not going to sit you sit here and read you all the numbers out of it the last one got revised down this one got uh you know came in lower than expected we had people removed from the labor force which actually weirdly lowered the unemployment rate but the numbers aren't good we're adding over half a million part-time workers we're losing about over 400,000 full-time workers workers might be uh you know in a place where we are seeing that nervousness expanding and you're finally getting fed officials like Waller who just came out and spoke and said look it might be appropriate to frontload Cuts that's a 50 signal by the way now Waller doesn't see a recession but by him arguing hey it's time to frontload Cuts it's a sign that people like Waller and D they're starting to get a little bit nervous that they've overdone it and they've gone too far I think with Waller's comments this morning daily yesterday I think we're almost certainly going to get a 50 basis point cut uh here on September 18th I want to show you why take a look at this analysis I wrote Right Here If the Fed Cuts 50 at each meeting between now and may we might be too low I mean I personally think we're probably going to go back to 2% by the end of next year but I think 2.25 by May is too optimistic probably means you're going into recession which is actually not optimistic uh if we cut by 25 I think you're going to be too slow so I actually think the course we're going to see here is a 505050 then 25 25 25 and these 25s will depend on the signals that we get from the data but think about it this way you can't start with 25 and then go 50 but you could start with 50 and then reduce to 25s as you start getting closer to that neutral rate all what the signal is is clear now though rates are too tight so you got to get a 50 slash when you get that 50 slash you're going to have markets that still have to price in actually getting a 50 now I'll tell you what markets are pricing in right now they're pricing in a 64% chance of a 50 basis point cut that I think is going to move up to 100% which I think is going to take the yield curve uh not only to the point where we have even more of a steep yield curve I mean look at the 10e today is down 6.4 the 2E is down 10.8 basis points this is a steepening yield curve we are now positive on the yield curve by about four basis points the more rapidly this becomes positive the closer we might be to a recession and this is where I also honestly want to apologize well I'll tell you what I want to apologize in a moment but I want to show you why I made this why I was able to double this option this morning I told course members this morning I go this is is weird we had a bad labor report and a bad revision why the hell are yields going up this is abnormal so right about here I entered a trade betting that yields would continue to fall because I thought this was Bond profit taking and I think that's exactly what it was my bet was that yields could go back down to -6 basis points they went to like -7 there for a minute it's crazy and I thought at bare minimum we would be slightly below where we were before for the jobs report that's why I decided to go for a call option on a ticker called TMF which is a triple leverag bet on bonds basically the 20 year so uh that worked out great that worked out well wonderful but I actually think that this trajectory is going to continue substantially and this is something that I've been talking about with course members for a while and I just basically yeed my Robin Hood portfolio which I don't have a lot in my Robin Hood portfolio relative to my other portfolios but I basically just yeed my Robin Hood portfolio into uh uh TLT and you could see it's done remarkably well here over the last three months I mean we went from what is this it was an $80,000 portfolio to like 192 it did go down there for a moment as yield spiked to like 151 but you know now it's like 235 or whatever that's the only thing that's sitting in there is TLT like I'm so confident that that rates are coming down obviously I could be wrong but I'm dumping my money into this because I I think the the beted is pretty obvious uh that the fed's behind the curve or they're going to wake up to realizing this and that's what we're getting with Waller commentary today I also think we're getting 50 I think we're getting 50 because think about it on the way up you went 75 75 75 50 50 50 25 25 25 as they get closer they calibrate more narrowly okay so now on the way down you should maybe you even go 75 go down I mean they're not going to that's highly unlikely because the Market's not expecting that but you could so I think you go 50 and then you go what's the data oh let's go 50 again if the data starts coming in hot Go 25 or skip a meeting you could always do that you could go 50 skip a meeting and it's kind of like doing 2 25s so but you can't go 25 and then go 50 because you're signaling that you're screwing up now you're accelerating the pace it cuts weird so they're going to go 50 that's my bet uh but I do want to talk about what I wanted to apologize for so we wrote this out in the course member live stream and I thought it was really cool uh in addition to our analysis that we did on broadcom's uh backlog uh I wanted to show you this look at this when Kevin has been bearish I know people like oh Kevin you're always bearish but I'm actually not always bearish on November 26 2021 I DED my hair red and the market crashed for the next 7 to eight months I got bearish here I actually shorted Arc with s Arc with a $3 million short but I actually paper handed that way too early in January of 2022 you all know I went very bearish in January I got the sh9t on the terminal you know which the ninth letter of the alphabet is I which is crazy but I went bullish to early so generally I'm a bull I did go bearish March and April you could go back and watch my videos of that of this year and we did have a little bit of a market pullback and I've been bearish since July so I know people look at me they're like Kevin you're just always a doom and gloomer bear but then when you look over here you're like pre pandemic I bought every single dip during the pandemic v-shaped recovery I bought every Larry cudow dip I could I literally refinanced all of my homes in March and in late March my refinances closed I plowed it all into the stock market and I mean that was a pretty lucky timing bet because those those Investments made bang in February of 20121 the market started falling I got prey on the Bloomberg terminal but I incorrectly stayed bullish in October I dyed my hair green and we had the after I you know lost the election in California we had a massive rally in November of 2021 and in late 22 when I launched my ETF I thought we were closer to the bottom we called for the Nike the volatile Nike Swoosh which we maintained in 2023 and I even went green hair in November of 2023 so like I'm a bull much more than I'm a bear but I just have to be honest right now I'm very very bearish I think we are literally the quote of the day is One Market correction away from a recession and I want you to look at this by the way the option that I played on TMF I just wanted I'm going to just a free lesson here okay I went for the $60 option on this that's because we bottomed here at 6064 and I wasn't paying a lot for extrinsic value I don't like to pay a lot for X I want to pay a lot for intrinsic value and so I went in the money so basically every little bit that this went up i' I've just printed money now had I I sold at a double some people who who also went in on this trade who got the alert and are like Kevin you know because remember this these aren't designed to be copied people look and go Kevin I agree with you I think that's a good trajectory some people are still in this trade and they're up close to a 3X now which is crazy because I think 100% intrinsic value on this would be $343 right now I got in at 131 that's it's a . 6X if someone was still holding right now crazy obviously the market sing down but but again a few things I just want to apologize for here uh one you know I know I've been coming across as a dirty bear and there have been so many bearish videos uh I don't I'm not always a bear uh I think you know that I think the FED talking about front loading Cuts is a clear as day 50 signal I think Mary Daly was pretty negative yesterday as well I think it makes logical sense to get a 50 from the fed and right down the calendar for the FED meetings they're right here sept 18th which is a summary of economic projections meeting so we'll get projections as well I think that's going to tank yields man I because this is where they could go 50 like let's write this down prediction is they go 50 signal rates at uh probably 4% year end which is 125 BP of cuts and Signal uh end 2025 at probably 3% something like that that's my prediction uh this by the way is roughly in line with what the market thinks I don't think the sep will move much though but I think the the the 50 will help and then you'll get more seps over you know at every other meeting basically docu sign just a warning docu sign is an example of what happens uh when mega growth turns into nominal growth docus sign now trades at 2.6 Peg forward year end with just 6.45% average expected growth over the next four years docu sign was growing like crazy during the pandemic the stock ran up to $314 now it's down 81% from its peak it's cash flow positive and it has a peg of only 2.6 which is totally reasonable for a software company why is it down 81% from the peak because the growth crashed the stock market rewards growth fed Williams ready to start the process unemployment rate still low despite the rise this makes me nervous because statistically they could say that unemployment hits a low you know has been historically low around 5 a half% uh that makes me nervous because I think that's going to make them cut too slowly which which I don't like but anyway so I'm going to be try to be a little bit more clear with my titles I don't think I'm a Perma bear I think you know that I'm just going to keep trying to do my best and put one foot in front of the the other you know there's a coupon codee expiring today we've got I think two seats left in The Mastermind metkevin.com Mastermind that takes place at the beginning of next month coupon code over at meetkevin.com expiring today email us at staff meetkevin.com if you have questions and if if if if you want actual Financial advice from myself and my team you get the advice through my team from me uh that's cuz we you know radio communicate and work together together or I'm just walk into the office and we talk and communicate about people's scenarios we're offering financial consulting and financial advice which is very important especially during tumultuous times in the market for Real Estate stocks you could be Allin vo how are we going to how are we going to position you for the future Allin S&P 500 what percentage is right for you for real estate what percentage is right to be in a retirement account that's what we're doing learn about that over at stack.com we're just collecting an interest list now we expect to actually start that process October 1 anyway thank you so much for being here I love you all really wish you the best grab that coupon code thanks so much folks see you soon bye these things that you told us here I feel like nobody else knows about this we'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes congratulations man you have done so much people love you people look up to you Kevin P there financial analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get your take even though I'm a licensed financial adviser licensed real estate broker and becoming a stock broker this video is not personalized advice for you it is not tax legal or otherwise personalized advice tailor to you this video provides generalized perspective 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