Mega Bullish.

oh boy we's going bullish okay maybe not but we are going to cover a bullish piece here this is fascinating I actually just got back to the studio from an event it was a JP Morgan private wealth bank event uh a great event uh small group and we just talked about election the economy povs on recession and I want to give you their notes now you already know a lot of my opinions and I'll tell you more about my opinions and sort of my thoughts on this towards the end but what I'd like to do is start with these JP Morgan notes this is what they're talking about over at JP Morgan uh in in addition to that I'd like to touch on uh the quickly where the FED sits with positioning at this point right now we're sitting at just a 14% chance of having a 50 basis point cut which basically implies that the odds of a 50 are pretty much dead mostly because of that slightly hotter core CPI number that came out this morning which I mean between you and me we we know this is ridiculous because when you actually look under the hood you're like oh come on man y'all going to slow down rate Cuts cuz you're lagging owner's equivalent rent is you know surprise surprise lagging and is showing that rents are going up .5% on a month-over-month basis which annualize out to like 6% which is like twice your normal preco average that's not good and if that's the reason you're going to slow down Cuts fine but hopefully you don't push this into a recession because you look at Zillow War Apartments list and those rents are indicating Nationwide we're seeing rents decline not increase on both a month over month and a year-over-year basis but you know those are current rents and owner's equivalent rents look at what everybody's current rents are not just new leases so it's a little misleading anyway that said let's listen to what JPM thinks now that we got CPI out of the way note we are almost back to an inverted yield curve we were literally positive six points now we're less than one point positive on the inversion which is not great usually once you get the big pop up like the 50 BP jump up that's when you go into a recessionary environment but when you see that yield curve going back to inverted it's actually usually bullish for stocks and so we'll touch on the stock market a little bit later in this video but let's talk about their bullishness first election wise they think uh that uh Harris has a cash Advantage raising over $360 million in August uh compared to Donald Trump's 170 but because she's been mounting the shortest presidential campaign ever in history it's a lot of Harris enthusiasm in the near term that might not translate to a sweep even if she he wins or even if Trump wins in other words they basically think we're probably going to end up with a split Senate uh or congress basically right or or party control to where potentially if you have a trump presidency the Democrats have either the house or the senate or if you have a Kala presidency you have either a Republican senate or house the benefit to financial markets for this is with Trump maybe you don't end up in a trade War see JP Morgan's real concern is that if Trump implements some of his tariff ideas we could see CPI go up by 2% and GDP go down by 1% and therefore it could shock the market because you're sending a massive stagflationary signal by igniting a trade War potentially with many countries throughout the world now they think a split Congress would prevent that and even if you have a sweep you're going to have barely a sweep in the house or Senate like back to 50/50 or you know 218 222 in the house to where you only need to lose like one or two people and then any kind of like trade War legislation is dead the same is true on the KLA side so on the Harris and KLA side same person here K Harris side on the K Harris side you have this potential uh that uh you get more uh energy support it's one of the reasons you've seen a little bit of a tick up in end phase today uh maybe you get more support for transfer payments bullish potentially for infrastructure one of the reasons you might be seeing uh Nvidia up and some of the infrastructure plays up very common uh but it's all especially since djt you know Trump back is down like 15% that could be because of the lockup events coming due soon but it's also likely just the market saying okay how would we position for more of a uh Harris presidency okay energy stocks up and uh you know djt down and maybe Nvidia up because of infrastructure spending and Chip sack spending right Biden kind of spending that is very normal after a debate like yesterday but I expect that to normalize and us to see a lot more volatility as we get closer to the election so I don't think that today's specific trend is going to keep going in the long term I think you'll get a lot more volatility as we get a lot closer to the election which is Norm especially since corporate BuyBacks dry up within about one week and you'll be post fed meeting but anyway so they think you'll have a split presidency in terms of control so they see limited risk when it comes to legislation really damaging markets that said uh they do think that the market is pretty much saying inflation is no longer an issue that the Market's gotten to the point where it's like look we just really just care about the labor market right now and they still see what they're seeing as labor hoarding and they're a bank right so they think that labor should stabilize at about a 45% unemployment rate that yes we've triggered the S rule yes we're at 4.2 now we were at 4.3 last month they think we're going to stabilize at 4 and a half once we get a little bit more of this unwinding done over the next few months and that they think will be uh in line with a soft Landing now they do argue that if the unemployment rate goes to 5% it's probably going to go to six so they do say like we're right now they're only pricing in a 25 to 30% chance of recession they kind of imply they're this on this teeter totter we like uh but if the FED goes too slow then they're going to push us into a recession which actually is where I sit as well I think that the CPI data we got this morning is unfortunately going to lead the Federal Reserve to go too slow so the FED goes too slow and then what do you get well then you get not just the unwind of Labor hoarding but a layoff cycle see if you read the FED beige book what you'll find is that there aren't a lot of companies that are doing layoffs now but what I believe is that a lot of these companies are On The Fringe In other words where one shock we one panic away from layoffs and that's what really deepens the panic Panic so I expect that we have a lot of volatility between now and the election that volatility could lead to a market correction that market correction could lead to that boom layoffs boom you're in a recession that's the concern that I'm hedging myself for those of you in the course member live stream know that I'm buying the dip when there are dips on my hedge play it's uh about to be a multi-million doll hedge play and uh if you haven't taken advantage of The Flash sale yet make sure you join it go to meetkevin.com you get lifetime access so if I have a crazy multi-million dollar hedge playay three years from now and you're like all right I want to see what this is you've paid for Access forever so go check it out go to meetkevin.com the uh uh price will be going up tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. so we're getting to where it's uh you know we're getting close to where it's going up and if you have questions you can email us at staff meetkevin.com so let's keep going on with this JP Morgan argument so they believe that you know layoffs are still low they're looking at warn data jolts data Challenger data this is true they're absolutely right layoffs are still low I just think it flips fast right with volatility One Market correction away and you flip over again I'm trying to show you the contrast between my opinions and theirs they say that right now they're buyers of the dip they're a big fan of buying the dip they were buying the dip in early August and they think we should be buying the dip right now as well and if there's more volatility they're a big fan of buying the dip which is f fine uh they do argue though we do have valuation risk and they actually think companies like Nvidia are going to be range bound between 110 and 130 now Nvidia is doing great today and it's probably because of chips sack Harris kind of uh activity and I want you to just see the technical bounce on it I have a line at 10808 and look at that nearly perfect bounce with a straight up action on Nvidia reallyred in it's screaming chips sock money baby so they believe not only in labor hoarding but they do believe that Tech is overplayed right now that a lot of the tech valuations are just too high and while they don't prefer small caps because of the risk of micro recessions like cyclical recessions taking them out they like midcaps and homebuilders now I don't blame them for liking homebuilders homebuilders is a good one uh I actually think like at some point in the future I want house hack to be a home builder that's long term you know right now we're absolutely killing it I mean we're having our wedge deals verified by uh appraisers and the appraisers are looking going yep those look like some pretty sexy wedge deals and so some of the things I mean I was just looking at the sheet the other day I'll give you a quick little sample here I think I have it handy here I was looking at the sheet and I'm like this is freaking awesome this is great like what we thought we were pulling off we are uh and uh yeah here we go here uh so we've got here's one that's uh what is this we acquired it for $936,000 put 61k in appraised at$ 1.38 million well dang that's almost like a $400,000 wedge almost right uh you know here's uh here's another one we bought a million dooll one put 77 in appraised at 1.32 okay how about a cheaper one here's one we bought at 550 put 94k in so we're into it for about uh 650 boom $85,000 appraisal $105,000 which over and over and over again on our deals here's one that we bought because a seller was panicking $320,000 purchase renovation $1800 didn't really have to do anything they were just panicking $455 appraisal those are the kind of things that I do when I fly around and I look for real estate okay myself and the team we like to do this stuff we like real estate so I actually agree with them on the home builders I think uh and they also acknowledged that there has been overbuilding what they said in Austin Dallas and parts of Florida that has led that real estate market to fall while other parts of the country are really just at all-time highs in real estate uh and that this cycle because people have really termed out their debt uh isn't a real estate crisis cycle uh it's potentially going to turn into a labor cycle but uh you know that's obviously what they think the FED has plenty of room to act on they do believe that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve uh and so that does still make me nervous that realization like it's going to take some kind of shock and realization and that's where I think my hedge play is going to go from a hedge play to a profit printer like when the FED finally wakes up and realizes they're behind the curve and we get that like oh moment from the FED I think we're just going to freaking print money that's also why I'm willing to put millions of dollars into the train but anyway so uh again go to meet kevin.com coupon expires 6 tomorrow they think um these these are not going to be like Obamacare uh sweep days where the Democrats have like a a large margin even if they win very small margins even if they sweep so you'll kind of have issues like you did where you know it takes one Senator or one representative to flip uh they are believers that uh gen Z is very concerned about housing afford ility and that might wake the fed up a little bit as well to try to get some of these rates down they also you know acknowledged I asked them I go hey you know what's going on with like Ally Bank you know why are they writing down their auto loans what's going on uh you know even JP Morgan your ceoo yesterday talked about forecast for lower net interest margin and what's going on with these consumer defaults what's going on with Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs you know how they did the apple card the debt for the Apple card well uh I was researching this yesterday and a gold Goldman Sachs has uh let's see where was it here it is Goldman Sachs is taking a potentially a 400 million loss on debt they're acquiring from the GM portfolio uh and that's because Barclays who's trying to buy it is realizing that the underwriting Goldman did sucks and now they're asking basically for credits uh and trying to get discounts on that uh that credit uh portfolio Goldman I guess was chasing people off of Credit Karma I guess people on Credit Karma potentially lower credit score is what they're arguing they're they're probably going to take a loss on their apple card program as well and the JP Morgan guy you know he was suggesting that it's probably because underwriting standards really got pretty loose and so you're going to kind of keep seeing smaller Banks smaller lenders smaller companies having issues because of lack underwriting standards that happened you know in 2022 or 2021 or 2020 and that's actually interesting because if you think about it you know if nobody was able to be late on Al loone then do people's credits potentially sit artificially high today and now you're getting discovery of oh what we thought was a 750 credit score borrower is actually like a 650 or or a 550 borrower you know because they were like so I wrote down FICO misleading in my notes I was taking notes of my phone uh so that was very interesting a period of relaxed underwriting he says but that's micro not macro uh doesn't see uh he sees maybe 10 to 20 banks that are at risk for being acquired but doesn't see it as like a banking crisis again or deposit flight uh they actually like the idea potentially of like selling puts on Nvidia and like collecting yield on Nvidia right now or or just even like Bank preferred stocks uh they uh see mortgage companies doing really well once rates get to like five to five and a half and uh which which you know is priced in to be probably in the spring then uh just based on where the FED curve is right now obviously that could happen faster if the FED needs to panic for whatever reason or does panic and not so worried about geopolitical although they are they do see a 10 to 15% upside in Gold uh and they do like some utilities but not all they just do think that the chip trade itself has run most of its course and that even though Nvidia is going to have these fluctuations of 7% a day or whatever most of it has run its course and it'll probably be range Bound Again between like 110 and 130 is what I wrote down uh so something to keep an eye on there uh that I think is useful okay then we have let's see here oh definitely long tech after like 3 to 5 years like or maybe not necessarily after 3 to 5 years but after the near-term bypasses and we kind of start realizing some of the benefits of the AI uh plays and the cback spending that's occurring so I found this really fascinating and uh I have to say I really resonated with the FICO argument for the smaller delinquencies on autos and credit cards so I absolutely agree with JPM on this I still believe that we are a market correction away from massive layoffs I actually think we're going to go through Labor deflation and it's going to be very very painful unless the FED acts faster and that's why I'm making my hedge play is I think the FED is convinced that inflation is dead they understand the one thing that's hot in the CPI report is a lagging indicator and I think they're going to come out guns blazing even if they go 25 here they're going to in my opinion they're either going to go 50 and hawkish or what's more likely after today's CPI data 25 and super doish like really doish because they're going to want to send a signal to markets that we are going to stop the labor bleeding and that might actually give confidence to businesses and to investors that okay all right fed put baby don't fight the FED to the moon and if election uncertainty unwinds then like I've been saying between now and the election could be a really good buy the dip time I don't think that's now I think there's still a good dip ahead of us but I'm not sure yet when that's going to be probably after buyback window expires so sometime between fed meeting and Halloween so fed reacts really doish in that time frame and you get a shock that's probably the time to buy my take in the meantime I'm hedged for soft Landing or recession thank you so much for watching I hope you appreciated bull piece if you did make sure to share it make sure to uh subscribe go grab your courses on building the wealth your wealth a link down below over at meetkevin.com get in before 6 p.m. tomorrow so you can see my discussions as we you know come up with Theses or share ideas or share transitions or answer questions live with me make sure to see that over at meek kevin.com and uh hey seriously thank you as far as the bull bear scale still on a 3-2 okay I'm probably going to be sub five between now and Halloween but if we get an accommodated fed between now and Halloween and we start unwinding recession you know we start getting some better data it's going to be back to Nike Swoosh baby and we've been talking about that all right thanks y'all we'll see you next one bye why not advertise these things that you told us here I feel like nobody else knows about this we'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes congratulations man you have done so much people love you people look up to you Kevin P there financial analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get your take even though I'm a licensed financial adviser licensed real estate broker and becoming a stock broker this video is not personalized advice for you it is not tax legal or otherwise personalized advice tailored to you this video provides generalized perspective information and commentary any thirdparty content I show shall not be deemed endorsed by me this video is not and shall never be deemed reasonably sufficient information for the purposes of evaluating a security or investment decision any links or promoted products are either paid affiliations or products or Services we may benefit from I also personally operate an actively managed ETF I may personally hold or otherwise hold long or short positions in various Securities potentially including those mentioned in this video however I have no relationship to any issuer other than house act nor am I presently acting as a market maker make sure if you're considering investing in house act to always read the PPM at house hack.com