Penn State football will defeat West Virginia again... 2024 game preview, predictions, & key players

give me Penn State to win this one outright but West Virginia covers that spread you are locked on nit Lions your daily podcast on the Penn State nit Lions part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day let's predict and preview Penn State versus West Virginia and talk about what Penn State's going to do with the football how they'll attack West Virginia's defense and what West Virginia will do in return offensively as well this is lockon nney Lions I'm your host Zach Seiko and thanks so much for making us your first listen and watch every single day we are free and available wherever you get your podcasts including YouTube and Today's Show is brought to you by FanDuel now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet just $5 that's all it takes $5 and you get a 3-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV all you got to do is visit fanduel.com loock on to get started I'd greatly appreciate it if you left a like on this episode but more importantly let me know your final score prediction down in the comments section key players for both teams how you think the game will UNF unfold be a part of the discussion but I'll give you my prediction right up front and then back it up with my reasoning to preview the entirety of the game and I think Penn State wins this one 31 to 24 over West Virginia so I do have the Mountaineers covering that spread and I have the total going over it's it's moved it was 502 51 A2 but I think there's some points in this game and I think West Virginia does in fact cover the total I I think the way the way that it's going to be is that Penn State will have a lead and West Virginia will cut into it late so imagine a 31 to 17 score with West Virginia getting a late touchdown to make things close and then Penn State is able to just kind of run out the clock at that point but here are my biggest reasons why Penn State is going to beat West Virginia number one it starts first and foremost with the quarterback Drew Aller Aller is back seconde starting he's improved and he's even different from last year so this was the same quarterback that select West Virginia fans and accounts on X like to say that he's not that good well this was the same quarterback that put up 325 passing yards three touchdowns and no interception and you only got one sack against as well I get it that was 2023 but Drew allers improved he's better and a big part of his game now is going to be that dual threat capability Drew Aller wasn't really that much of a runner in week one I feel like a last ditch effort to try to get the offense to do something Mike yuch just had him run random quarterback draws well now this is going to be coordinated to get his legs a part of the offensive game plan now that Andy cotal Nikki is running the show Drew Aller is going to be a dual threat quarterback so he'll be able to attack you with not only his arm but his legs as well and he's still going to protect the football I don't expect I don't expect any egregious errors in this game from Drew Aller that's a big part of it too you're relying on a defense that is potentially top 10 caliber I think the safe bet is top 15 but I'm confident that this Penn State group can still have a top 10 defense Aller knows this and there is no reason to try to put the football In Harm's Way to win this game especially when West Virginia's defense isn't going to force like not a defense that forces turnovers but Drew Aller being back second year in a row as a starter for Penn State already had a great performance against West Virginia once he'll be able to do it again and have a really solid performance this time around and he's playing now in a system that not only compliments him but is going to give him confidence throughout the season number two and you you have to start with the quarterback but honestly the ground game is going to be huge for Penn State in this game against West Virginia so the the number two reason is a two-part Nicholas Singleton and KRON Allen I'm going to talk about West Virginia's returning rushers a lot between the quarterback and their two leading running backs but Penn State returns both of its leading rushers who nearly topped 1,000 yards each these are both future NFL caliber players there's no reason for them either of them to be selected later than round three and they are going to be involved in this game early and often and I'm not only I'm not only talking about cycling them into the ground game you were going as a one-two punch the Thunder and the lightning right Nicholas Singleton as the Speedster and KRON Allen as that power back but they're going to be included in the passing game as well that was something that was lacking from Mike urich's offense a season ago where Singleton and Allen really weren't utilized a as pass catchers and now they're going to be Andy Kel Nikki is going to put an emphasis on it I expect them both to each have at least 125 total yards again factoring in both the ground game and the receiving game so if somebody doesn't have 100 yards that's because somebody might have 50 receiving yards to go along with it if they take away from those rushing yards again I don't really care how Penn State moves the football up and down the field as long as they're able to and if that means getting Singleton and Allen involved in the passing game so be it that goes right into reason number three Andy codal Nikki Andy codal Nikki is now the coordinator out Mike yuch in Andy cotal Nikki play calling will be much better the offense will be more Dynamic and less cookie cutter less predictable Drew Aller having more involvement in the ground game himself as a runner Nicholas Singleton KRON Allen being involved in the passing game you'll probably see formations where they are both on the field at the same time outside of that T formation which is unique but you have those skill sets why keep them off the field one at a time right it just got too predictable and cotal Nikki is pretty familiar with West Virginia once upon a time not too long ago 2022 season cotal Nikki's offense at Kansas this is with Kansas players put up 49 points against a West Virginia team and I know what everybody is going to say that's either a West Virginia fan or West Virginia supporter supporter or a Penn State doubter say well those were two different teams Zach and this is this is 2024 I I get that but also remember that things are still consistent Pence State teams are much more talented than Kansas teams my point is that Andy cotel Nikki understands how West Virginia operates what those two things have in common there is that Andy cotal Nikki faced West Virginia and he faced a Neil Brown version of West Virginia so he understands how the system operates I know they're two very different teams but Annie cotal Nikki is familiar and has West Virginia and Neil Brown's number from that pre and again that wasn't a long time ago that was 2022 we're in the 2024 season for anybody that didn't know another reason Penn State is just more gifted and talented as a team they're just the better overall team I went on to social media on X and I asked West Virginia accounts that cover the team follow the team which players have a future in the NFL and these were some of the common names right Wyatt milm Jem white Garnett Hollis who transferred in Gary green the quarterback quarterback CJ Donaldson Josiah trod Cole Taylor that's a fine solid group but I didn't exactly ask where they would be drafted or any anything like that too just who had a future in the NFL that doesn't matter if they were drafted first round or if they went undrafted that they would make an NFL roster that's what my question was asking so let's take a look at the 2025 big board from Pro Football Focus that ranks draft eligible players in the top 150 Penn State has six players Abdul KJ Winston Tyler Warren Drew Aller Nicholas Singleton and Julian Fleming West Virginia only has one player Wyatt milm all those other players that that I named that again came from evidence that was provided to me by West Virg people that cover West Virginia follow West Virginia there's only Wyatt myum and other word that I've gathered is that Wyatt mym is most likely a second round pick Abdul Carter according to the athletic is the second best overall player in next year's draft KJ Winston is graded as a future first round pick and that's just in the top 150 so I could go on and on and on about NFL Talent that's on Penn States roster compared to West Virginia but those that's a 6 to1 ratio right there another reason West Virginia so I've talked a lot about proen State now I'm going to start to criticize West Virginia here particularly the defensive line and the front seven when I said it the first time it didn't sit well with West Virg irginia fans on X but the point still stands I don't care that West Virginia had 33 sacks as a team a season ago especially against Bottom Feeders of the Big 12 they oh they led the Big 12 Conference look at where those sacks came against what kind of opponents you were facing Baylor UCF you didn't get a lot of pass rush against Penn State a year ago from Pro Football Focus once again the analytics are important here West Virginia's pass rush was in the bottom 20 in the country in terms of win rates so what that means is getting after the quarterback So eventually you might get there but it takes a long time so in terms of active pass rush getting there effectively West Virginia was one of the worst a season ago and really didn't make all that many wholesale changes uh in the transfer portal he got some players but maybe probably not enough West Virginia was also 89th in terms of rush yards per attempt so they allowed over 4 and half yards per Rush attempt a season ago and Penn State's defense was number one by the way which is great for this matchup so it does not matter that they return most of their starters that group is still below average and the secondary was even worse now they did improve in the portal but part of that had to do with the fact that the defensive line just would not get pressure they would get late pressure so the secondary was left out out to drive for a long time to cover wide receivers and then the last point to wrap up this first segment is West Virginia did lose most of its important players on defense the bright spots on the defense are gone Lee Koba was everything to them and he's gone leading tackler by a mile great onesign blitzes from the linebacker spot and a veteran leader that you're not just going to casually replace in week one and then beanie Bishop is gone in an offl defense last year that guy was a maniac 20 passes defended led the nation four interceptions tied for second in the nation dude was a beast that I also don't think can be replaced right away this will make for a higher scoring Affair I I think it's 31 to 24 and that might even be too low at this point I I'm sorry to one of the original commentators commenters on on one of my videos if you're seeing this that said it was it was going to be a high scoring game and I disagree with you I don't know that this will be an absolute shootout but this game will have points and go over the total both offenses are impr are improved and West Virginia's defense still has too many question marks for me now coming up we'll talk about what Penn State is going to do when they have the football get ready for the new look nitty lion offense that's coming up next year on locked on nitty lions and today's episode is brought to you by Five Hour Energy do you want to get in shape but are you having trouble staying motivated make 5H Hour Energy Shots part of your lifestyle and get that energy boost you need to get fit we all know sometimes you don't want to go to the gym and that's okay so take a 5-hour Energy Shot to give you the feeling that alertness so you can get to the gym with zero sugar and a convenient portable size it's the perfect pickme up for getting stuff done the 5H Hour Energy website has flavors Galore we're talking watermelon tropical burst grape Berry and more there's truly a flavor for everyone you can try them all on the site you have the option to build your own 12 or 24 pack you choose the flavors and it's delivered right to your door if you go to 5our energy.com that is the number 5our energy.com and get some 5our Energy Products today you can use my promo code locked on CFB to receive 20% off your order this offer is valid only until September 30th on one order and cannot be used with other promotions the code is not good on subscription orders either again go to 5our energy.com today again that is 5our energy.com hey State's going to be able to attack this West Virginia Defense in a variety of ways they were susceptible to big plays a season ago in terms of explosive play rate overall they were 100th according to PFF but I think that this time around Penn State's going to focus a little more on the ground game and be run heavy I I don't know that Drew Aller is going to have another 325 yard Masterpiece simply because of the play calling here again Andy cotal Nikki was one of the most run heavy had one of the most run heavy offenses at Kansas I think that's going to carry over when you have Devin Neil at Kansas it's understandable when you have Nicholas Singleton and KRON Allen you'd almost be you'd be crazy not to emphasize the ground game here so get ready for that new look Penn State offense and it's still going to be a work in progress which is why I only have Penn State scoring 31 points there going be some small things again you're not going to see 100 110% of the system yet there's still going to be some communication errors and still things that they that they work on that they have to carry over from last year to bridge into this season under AK but Penn State is not going to throw the kitchen sink at West Virginia simply because they really can again this is still a work in progress but you're going to see the differences right away there is going to be a lot of pre- snap movement designed to confuse the defense as much as possible wide receivers and jet and Jet motions formation shifts Andy cotal Nikki is going to get creative by any means necessary and again I to reemphasize Singleton and Allen are going to get involved early and they're going to get involved often a West Virginia Defense a front seven particularly that is just just not that good they're below average I'm not they're not terrible they're not a completely putrid but they are by all accounts below average and they might be slightly better but they're still not at that median Singleton and Allen should have no issues here carving up the front seven they will be the focal point of the offense and then there's also this part of the ground game the running quarterbacks so Drew Aller is a part of that too Drew Aller will run the football Bo prula will come in and run the football Aller is officially confirmed to be down to 235 lbs he will be used as more of a dual threat QB I am not trying to argue to say that he's a dinard Robinson born again or a vintage Lamar Jackson at Louisville that is not what I'm saying here but somebody that can keep defenses honest you force them to use a quarterback spy you get the defensive end to hesitate on a read option Drew Aller is going to be able to open that up by simply running for five 10 15 yards he doesn't need to go for a 70 yard Scamper I don't think that he can do that I think Bo prula can and that's why Bo prula is going to be utilized as well in select offensive packages but they are going to bring him in they are going to use other ways since the wide receiver core isn't this Elite and insanely talented group you can do other things to move the football down the field that Mike yuch for whatever reason neglected that Andy cotoni is going to use in his system so West Virginia's defense will have to remain extremely extremely disciplined through all of this let's move to the pass catchers here Tyler Warren is going to be the number one overall Target I said that in my season preview this is the this is the case in general because he should be because he should be he is an NFL caliber talent I fully expect him to be drafted somewhere where some people have have him graded as high as round two I think round three or four is a safe pick just for now we'll see how the season goes Trey Wallace is the number one wide receiver and he actually had a pretty big game against West Virginia last year seven catches 72 yards behind Keandre Lambert Smith so now Wallace is back he's fully healthy again he didn't play a full season in 2023 but now he's back to open up 2024 and I think a name that just isn't mentioned enough Amari Evans Amari Evans is going to be used in this offense as well he's going to get a lot of run here simply because of his speed Andy cotal Nikki's offense emphasizes explosiveness that's why he was brought into Penn State he's almost the anti- mike yuch in in this in this case because they they lacked that explosiveness a season ago but when you don't have a lot of receivers that offer that explosive playability you have to turn to the one that truly does and that's Amari Evans with honestly top three speed on the team he will be a guy that will see constantly in motion he'll get the jet sweeps he'll get those end rounds he will be that deep play threat you do have to work him into the offense because he isn't a proven player he's now a veteran but we're going to see more out of him I can see Andy cot Nikki gradually working him into the offense to get him comfortable but you can use evans's speed to open up a lot of things as well and then don't forget Liam Clifford Liam Clifford has continued to emerge through training camp as they've transitioned practices to focusing fully on West Virginia Liam Clifford has received rave reviews I expect him to be that starter so and and of course there's going to be Julian Fleming Kaden Saunders if and when he is healthy he does it quoted bums you know bumps and bruises according to James Franklin and Company so that's the core of the wide receivers again West Virginia's defense they might be a little better but not but not by much I I talked about how their top contributors from a season ago went to the NFL and they did a lot of heavy with lifting these weren't just okay they were significant contributors but the other parts of the defense really bailed them out no their best linebacker their best cornerback that did just about everything for them you do not casually replace that weak one that is too difficult to do and that's why I think Penn State's offense even as a work in progress will be able to go on the road into an environment like Morgantown and score 30 points but that's going to be the basis of the offense again an offense that does need to perfect things does need time again think they will turn that week week six week week seven they will be able to turn the corner and truly be that uh explosive offensive team but you you play conservative and you play to your strengths Singleton and Allen you can rely on them week one against a front seven of West Virginia that's just um they're not that reliable but why West Virginia can stay within this game is because you got to give credit where credit's due and it is the offensive side of the football for the Mountaineers we'll talk about Garrett green Jem white CJ Donaldson that explosive ground game and why they will help West Virginia cover the spread in this one that's coming up next here and today's episode is brought to you by ultimate college football HC hey lock on nany line fans I'm excited to share a game with you that I know you'll all love and that's ultimate college football HC you step right into the role of being a head coach and you can lead your team to Glory imagine coaching the nitty lions from recruiting players to managing training camps scholarships every crucial decision is in your hands but can you handle the pressure what I love most about this game is the ability to call plays offensive plays during games so you can shape your season and your program's future ultimate college football HC is free it's ad free and it's playable offline perfect for gaming on the go and as listeners of locked on nitty Lions they're giving away a promo code to help you start your season season locked on CFB it's in the game store for a free boost to help you get started and all you got to do to download the game go to Ultimate dcf.com or find it in the App Stores begin your coaching Legacy today that's ultimate college football HC today's episode is also brought to you by ibata ibata is a free app that lets you earn cash back every time you shop you can earn on hundreds of items from groceries to Beauty Supplies to even toys so you can make sure you're beating inflation no matter what you're purchasing the average ibata user earns $256 per year that could cover the cost of an entire shopping trip that flight you've been eyeing or that fancy dinner you've been craving other apps just give you points that don't really amount to much but with ibata you earn cash back that you can withdraw to your bank account PayPal or even gift cards simply add the offers in the app upload your receipt and voila the money is yours you can save on over 2,400 Brands shop at over 1,000 retailers including your favorite grocery stores Lowe's Macy Sephora Best Buy just to name some of them and right now ibata is offering our listeners $5 just for trying ibata all you got to do is use the code locked on College when you register go to the app store Google Play Store download it for free the free ibata app to start earning cash back and use code locked on College that's IBO TTA in the Google Play or App Store and use code locked on College West Virginia's offense is the strength of this team now when they have the football I want to talk about the keys to stopping West Virginia's offense stack the Box because they're going to run the football a lot limit garri Green's legs try to again I didn't say take them away I said limit them because it's not going to be an easy task and don't give up the Deep pass don't give up the big play that can spark some momentum for West Virginia just be aware because that's what they like to do ground and pound ground and pound and then try to hit a big Play Over the Top when you're least expecting it and if you can easier said than done here but try to force a turnover if you can because West Virginia like Drew Aller is very good at protecting the football Garrett green is a veteran of the game he does not turn the football over here your key players for Penn State are going to be Abdul Carter Deni Dennis Sutton an outside linebacker of some sort whether that's a Tony Roos or a d Duca and Zack ke Wheatley and I say that because of the read option plays again you're going to have to account for Garrick green so someone like Tony Roos if they do run more of a 4-3 this time around with Tom Allen as opposed to the 425 who it's really whoever is responsible for that side so if Garrett green is going to fake the inside handoff and pull the football to run to the outside that means your defensive ends are going to have to stay sharp and focused and the same thing which with whatever outside linebacker safety that is down in the box so that can include KJ Winston as well or a Jaylen Reed a Tony Roos whoever there's going to be a lot of responsibility on them and why I mention zachi Wheatley as well not he's not going to be in the box but he'll be over the top as the free safety that last line of defense so when West Virginia does try the big play you got to be over there to help whether it's AJ Harris or Jaylen Kimber so I think wheatle playing free safety is going to be a vital part of this game plan as well going back to it West Virginia's offense is the strength of it team credit where credit is due the Mountaineers have their quarterback two leading running backs return from a season ago essentially three running backs because of what they were able to do Garrick green Jem white and CJ Donaldson all ran for over 750 yards each it's an import that's important for an offense that likes to run a lot isn't it this is going to be a physical game from the word go for Penn State's defense and honestly this might be a good thing that Penn State is playing West Virginia early and not later on in the season because of the concerns that I've expressed at linebacker okay they don't have the best depth and I wonder if you're missing a a player or two right that West Virginia is able to gain a little ground there but West Virginia simply likes to do two things that like to run the ball a lot and then when you're least expecting it try the Deep pass to go over the top and catch you sleeping they were one of the top teams simply by attempting explosive plays by going deep down the field so Garrick green is not afraid to run the football himself or try to take the Deep shot at any point in time so in order to stop this you have to stack the Box limit West Virginia as much as you can on first and second down because that's when it's third and two third and three they can still get those easy yards well I guess they're not really going to be easy but they can get the short distances or play action and it opens up a lot of things if you can get West Virginia into obvious passing situations that is the biggest key overall force them into obvious passing situations I know that's easier said than done but that's the main point of this all Garrett green is wildly inaccurate I saw my counterpart mountainer Paul lay into another podcaster for criticizing Garrick Green's completion percentage of 53% so I'm going to pick that up and run with it as well really everybody is going to defend on the West Virginia side of things you're going to defend Garrick Green's 53% completion percentage I think Drew Aller would be run out of town if that was his completion percentage I digress from that but 53% is just flat out awful now I do contend that green part of the reason for this is that he throws a lot of downfield deep passage which is going to hurt your accuracy that's going to hurt your completion percentage I will concede that but my goodness the dude misses wide openen throws a little more routinely than he should and it's backed up by the analytics according to Pro Football Focus they had him graded as the second worst quarterback in terms of uncatchable pass rate that is bad that I don't I don't need to I don't need to explain that that is bad on top of it West Virginia's receivers are not all world they're not world class they're average at best and I I feel like I'm throwing stones in a glass house here because of Penn State's W wide receiver problems the past season but West Virginia's receivers can't take over game I would take Penn State's W wide receiver group over West Virginia's I would watch out for the tight end Cole Taylor I think he offers I security for gar green he was one of his favorite targets a season ago led the team in receptions but those wide receivers cannot take over games that's my point they have six that will cycle in Hudson Clement Preston Fox Rodney Gallagher some people who follow Penn State recruiting might remember that one as well Jaden Bray Tron Ray that will that will cycle in as backup but those are your main play I said five there so those are your main players those are the five wide receivers that you're going to see the most from West Virginia and there's not a true number one target as well they all kind of do a little bit of everything and Garrick green likes to distribute the football as much as he can th those are the main pass catchers for West Virginia in this case other things that Penn State's defense can do you just have to account for gett Green's legs put a spy on him you can't allow him to run wild all of the time that will open up the offense quite a bit because anytime he fakes the RPO and tries to go through the air Penn State's going to have they you don't want to overreact to those types of plays and if you can put a spy on him to again limit Garrick green that's something else that Penn State's going to try and do here this is good I I want to finish with this again I mentioned it earlier in the segment this is good that Penn State's facing West Virginia now when it's at full strength they are designed to beat a West Virginia team they won a season AG go I know I know the score was 31 to 15 until late in the game but that was a two touchdown score and it's in Morgantown West Virginia I confident that pen State wins this one and that's how this game will line up it's in favor of the nitty lions that is the blueprint for both sides of the football for each team and I really appreciate you checking out this edition of locked on nitty Lions again be a part of the conversation let me know down in the comments what your score prediction is do you think it's a lower scoring game because these teams will run the football they will chew clock but I think both offenses will be able to score points in this one please leave a like on the episode I greatly appreciate it and if you're not already becomeing everyday or subscribe to lockon nitty Lions on YouTube and wherever you get your podcast we're going to have more previews more analysis around Penn State West Virginia the Penn State team itself and it'll all be right here for your home for Penn State conver for conversations around your favorite Penn State Sports locked on nitty Lions again thanks for making locked on nitty Lions your first listen and watch every single day for your second listen check out locked on college football with Spencer mlin college football is back and Spencer is getting you ready for it all game previews Recaps analysis talking about the breaking news getting you ready for college football week in week out again that's locked on college football available on YouTube and wherever you get your podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day