Why Ohio State Football Outclasses Oregon and Texas

Introduction every single day since the end of the 2023 season I have been refreshing ESPN's football power index page to see if they have updated it for the 2024 season and much like previous iterations of fpi the current iteration and future versions there will be as the famous saying goes The Good the Bad and the Ugly and this also goes for other websites whether it's ESPN and their analysts making predictions or CBS 247 Sports which I know is a affiliate of CBS but whatever you get the point there will always be good and bad predictions and we can only fully determine what's The Good the Bad and the Ugly at the end of the season as hindsight's 2020 but something that I've taken notice of that's growing in popularity and that has really been popular since the beginning of the 2024 season right after Michigan beat Washington as there is no offseason that's heresy is this idea that Oregon and Texas will Waltz into their new conferences and dominate and compete for championships both National and Conference now Oregon and Texas out of all the schools in conference realignment are the best suited to do that but conference realignment is tough historically on anyone even a blue blood like Nebraska and along with this idea that Oregon and Texas will compete for conference and Nation championships includes predictions like the one that fpi is making by ranking Oregon and Texas ahead of Ohio state that the Ducks and the Longhorns will be superior teams to the Buckeyes and I don't think the data the history the information the statistics I don't think much of anything agrees with that sentiment so we're going to be talking about that opinion specifically comparing Ohio State Oregon and Texas and why I think it's a grave mistake to undervalue the Buckeyes in comparison to these teams on this episode of college football with Sam before we dive any deeper I want to briefly encourage you to do something very important for me and that is liking this video hitting that thumbs up button to help get us into the algorithm and continue to produce more amazing college football content especially as it pertains to the Big 10 and also please subscribe to the channel click the notification Bell so that you can get notified when I release more college football content and comment who you think will be the best out of these three teams Oregon Texas or Ohio State who do you think is the best shot of winning at all who do you think has the best chance of winning their conference who do you think will be the best and do you agree with my opinion that Ohio State very likely will be better than these two schools or do you disagree you think that Ohio state will maybe have their worst year under Ryan day or maybe they'll be good but Texas and Oregon will just be that that much better let me know what you think down in the comment section below and last but not least before we resume please check out my patreon page and my merchandise storv the links in the description and in the pinned comment if you want to support the channel in an extra way I will shout out all patreon members at the end of every video and in my live streams I will consistently wear my own merchandises it's very comfortable and good quality and this video relates to ESPN's fpi so if you have not seen this video already my video that I released 8 days ago documenting ESPN's fpi and things that I agree with disagree with you know The Good the Bad and the Ugly check that out through the link in the top right corner of the screen it's a good watch it's doing well and it's a very engaging video but let's get back to the topic and I want to start out with the Oregon Ducks because Oregon is probably Oregon Football Analysis my favorite team in terms of odds to win it all who moving conferences USC UCLA Oregon Washington are moving to the Big 10 and Texas and Oklahoma they're moving to the SEC and Arizona Arizona State Colorado and Utah are moving to the Big 12 those are the moves of the the power five to power four from 2023 to 2024 also don't forget Cal Stanford and SMU moving to the ACC out of all those teams I think Oregon is the best by quite a significant margin entering this year they were 12-2 last year their strength of schedule was not tough but they were dominant I remember watching their game against Utah last year now Utah is a team who will always play close if they can they never quit they're tough on defense they're good in the trenches and they were banged up last year but playing in rcle stadium is no easy task it's loud dedicated fan base and Utah is deep even with their recruiting classes that pale in comparison to Oregon's Oregon went in there and just destroyed that team made it look easy I think the final score was 35 to6 or something like that 12-2 they were fourth in fbii the second most efficient team in the country efficiency is just measuring how the offense defense and special teams perform relative to the opponent offense defense and special teams so if you're a dominant team like Oregon even if you lose to Washington twice who went 14- one if you score more points allow less points and are just more of a dominant team you will be ranked ahead of teams that you lose to even maybe more than once in FP Pi that's how fpi works it cares more about dominance and more about I'd say relative performance if that's the correct word and statistics and analytics rather than necessarily straightup record it's why 2021 Nebraska for example was nearly ranked top 25 despite being three and N because they had a very tough schedule and played all these near Elite to Elite teams close Oregon was still competitive with Washington in their two losses they got physically dominated a bit but they were able to respond and at points were favored to win the game by fpi by win probability and they won all their other 12 games in pretty dominant fashion they toyed around with liberty in the bowl game they destroyed Colorado wrecked that hype train and even when they played a below average game relative to their ceiling against USC they still look like a cat and made USC look like a mouse their strength schedule was not strong by any means but they had a top five offense and defense per ESPN's efficiency and also scoring and that was last season and they returned nearly 34s more than 2/3 of production from last year and they bring in 14 transfers six starters on offense including Elite offensive tackles Josh Connor Lee Jr and a Johnny Cornelius return Jordan James who was basically the Donovan Edwards to Blake corm at Oregon last year Oregon's running back room was that good um Jordan James comes back when Bucky Irving leaves to the NFL which he's been drafted already TZ Johnson comes back and he'll be wide receiver number one as Troy Franklin departs Dylan Gabriel he's not a returning starter but one of the best QBs in the nation he's transferring in Jamari Caldwell and Derek Haron transferring it defensive tackle those are some of the best defensive tackles Jamari Caldwell was one of the best in the Big 12 Derek Haron was definitely a good defensive tackle in the Big 10 I don't know if I'd say one of the best but he certainly would have been one of the best in the Pack 12 last season and he'll be great for Oregon they return Jordan Burch and this is just a really good deep team they're well coached they're physical Dan Lanning is still young much like sarkeesian much like day all three of these head coaches were talking about in today's video are fairly young Lanning I'd say is the youngest sarkeesian and day have been in the head coaching business for over five years sarkeesian even longer than that uh Dan landing's only been head coach for two seasons but learning under Kirby Smart I I really like him he's bringing SEC Big 10 caliber play players to the Ducks I think they'll be very successful in the Big 10 in the long run maybe even in the short run I think out of all the teams that are going to new conferences Oregon has the best shot of being competitive and of dominating their conference in the short run their strengths are quarterback with Gabriel running back with Jordan James Noah Whittington wide receiver with Evan Stewart with TZ Johnson with Gary Bryant um their offensive Center position I think is going to be strong this year offensive tackle in particular again with Josh connly Jr and a Johnny Cornelius I really like um iani Lulu is their projected starting center Jordan Burch and Mato ungal I think will form a great Edge group as well guard could be a strength but they lost production on that interior of the o line defensive tackle with Haron and Caldwell could also be a strength and Oregon bringing in Jabar Muhammad returning taiim Powell and others in that secondary that could be strong as well their weakness and this is not necessarily a weakness I think it's more of a weak link is Jeffrey basa and Justin Jacobs at linebacker but that's again I think more of a weak link than a weakness the defense is filled with transfers and last year they were good they were great but I think that strength of schedule and the fact that they were just so dominant that teams had to play catchup with them contributed to that defense being ranked so high I think that defense relative to its ranking was closer to a paper tiger than being legitimately top 10 and again I could be wrong but Washington pushed them around Washington's defense was able to mess with that offense and the Big 10 defenses are much better than Washington's defense was last year and there are several defenses this season whether it's Ohio State or Michigan or Wisconsin or USC I know Oregon doesn't play USC or Penn State but Oregon could maybe play these teams in the playoff or in Indianapolis for the Big 10 championship game those offenses have the potential to be as physical and tactical as Washington's was last season so the defense for Oregon I'd say overall is somewhat of a question mark relative to being Championship caliber the offense is awesome but given that they're moving into a new conference and their defense is questionable which Ohio States isn't and and some of that inexperience at head coach Dan lanning's game management has arguably bit Oregon in the butt against ranked opponents Oregon State in 2022 Washington in 22 and both times in 23 I I do have a hard time seeing this team being given I don't exactly know how to put this but it's almost like they're being given credit that they haven't achieved yet like give it give it a year but comparing Oregon to Ohio State I find to be much more favorable to the Ducks than comparing the Longhorns to the Buckeyes Texas Football Analysis in regards to the Longhorns for Texas they were also 12-2 last year they went to the college football playoff unlike Oregon unlike Ohio State they beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa and they should earn their flowers there they were ranked seventh in fbii last year sixth in efficiency they played the 12th best strength of schedule top 20 offense top 10 defense per ESPN's efficiency they were I think 15th in both scoring offense and scoring defense from what I remember which is kind of cool like 15th exactly and if you're 15th in both scoring offense and scoring defense just averaging out those numbers you're probably going to be a top 10 team unless college football has a super balanced year and the top 10 teams typically have both top 10 offenses and defenses which is rare normally there aren't many college football teams who are that balanced last year was one of those seasons though there were several teams last year who had Elite ceilings and teams last year that could have contended for goat status Michigan Georgia part of me would argue Ohio State if things went a different way but they didn't and maybe Oregon maybe not by Analytics but just solely by achievement and coaching up Washington those five teams had Elite potential many of them had goat potential depending on what you considered a goat team this season I think is going to be a down year and Texas returns 23ds of their production a lot from an offense that had a very high ceiling and a defense that while certainly wasn't Elite particularly at defending the pass their dline being coached by Bo Davis was legendary with sweat and Murphy on that interior and often the defense at times made the play even if they were getting gouged there were several times late in the season where whether it was Kansas State coming back forcing Texas into overtime but Texas forces the fourth down stop or the offense coming in clutch against TCU where if Texas has to punt on that third and long TC might win and kick Texas out of the cfp but they didn't Texas last year while at times being seemingly trying to choke their way out of the playoff didn't they won some close games they dominated Alabama Texas Tech Oklahoma State they nearly came back and beat Washington who was one of the clutchest teams last season and one of the clutchest teams that I've seen in the 2020s managing all those onep possession games so Texas does have good reasons to be considered an SEC Contender they do I've documented previously on this channel the fact that I think Texas is going to have a much rougher time in the SEC than most people think but that's my personal opinion and I can be wrong however they return 10 starters much like Oregon so in comparison to Ohio State who returns more there's a disadvantage there they bring in 11 transfers Silas Balden and Isaiah Bond at wide receiver Amari nblack at tight end and they bring in some others too they bring in a lot on defense they bring in makuba from Clemson great safety started at Clemson in fact but I think he wanted better opportunities more money so he transferred in most of Texas's offensive line along with Quinn yers returns tight end receiver Jonathan Brooks at running back Xavier worthy included at receiver they're all gone but the offensive line at Texas their Center Majors Kelvin banks at tackle and again Quinn uers they come back and Texas was not Elite at defensive end last season UPF front their front four did a much better job of stopping the Run than getting to the quarterback but they realized that and they dipped into the portal and they got Trey Moore who posted 14 last season and at UTSA was the American Defensive Player of the Year first team All American and by All-American I mean All-American conference not All-American one of the best players in the country though if he posts those numbers at Texas he will certainly be an All-American this season so I'm interested in seeing how he pans out in particular on this Longhorn defense I think that he makes that room The Edge group of strength and if ERS improves he was barely outside the top 15 in qbr last year or maybe he was barely inside he was around that 15th range inside the top 20 if he takes that next step gets into the top 10 with the depth that Texas has at quarterback plus ERS playing at his ceiling that's definitely one of the best quarterback rooms in the country if those two boxes are checked off so quarterback can be a strength I'm not ready to just tab it as one though given that ERS has been inconsistent sometimes consistently inconsistent over the past two seasons I think that defensive tackle though and Corner are weaknesses if not weaknesses at least questions I don't think Bill Norton and two other defensive tackle transfers from Louisville and I forget where the other one transferred in from maybe it was also Arizona I I don't think that they're going to be as good as Murphy and sweat especially with Bo Davis leaving for LSU two of the best defensive tackles in the country along with arguably one of the nation's if not the nation's best defensive line coach leaving that room that area is bound to take a step back maybe it's not but that's how I see it in my mind especially because in regards to Texas's football program I need to see more seasons like last seasons in the SEC before I give parts of the team especially outside of the offense which is sarkeesian specialty benefit of the doubt the o line at Texas is probably one of the few areas along with receiver that I will give benefit of the doubt to they've had great receivers over the past few seasons and their o line under Kyle flood is getting better and better and better I can't say that about the defense and with Terence Brooks leaving even with some coming transfers and returning starters that secondary was so so bad given the talent and the fact that the Big 12 on offense just isn't as strong as it used to be particularly when TCU and Baylor and the later Bob Stoops era and Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma those offenses were elite elite and humming Oklahoma did not have that type of offense last season Texas was too inconsistent at times for that and Kansas wasn't healthy so given the opponents that that secondary faced and the talent they have I got to think it's coaching and not just recruiting or not just youth so that's an area of question as well I think they'll take a step back at those positions and I would say corner has some concerns with depth as well I like MBA transferring in from Clemson Clemson knows how to develop defensive players he's been there for quite some time started and he'll make a great addition for Texas but we'll have to see how that Ohio State Football Analysis entire room and really the defense overall pans out especially since the SEC has gotten better and better on offense and they play Georgia who should have the best offense in the SEC this season and last but not least we have the Ohio State Buckeyes who is the center point of this video this team I'm telling you right now and you can believe me you cannot and if I'm wrong I'm wrong and I will admit that I'm wrong I've done this a bajillion times on my channel like any honest college football analyst does when re-evaluating his preseason predictions preseason predictions are so hard to nail I nailed Michigan winning the national title last year and Washington being one of the best teams in the country winning the Pack 12 and reaching the playoff even though I picked Oregon to win the Pack 12 when championship game preview came so yeah that's probably as close as I can get to making a bombshell of accurate predictions same with completely predicting the Penn State Ohio State and Michigan records against each other that's probably the closest I can get to having awesome preseason predictions I'm going to try and get better this year and every year it'd be awesome for when it comes to a subset of multiple teams to have perfect predictions but that's very unrealistic but this is one that I'm very confident on and the more I look into the staffs of these teams same thing applies I've been studying Big 10 staffs because that's the focus of this channel so for Texas I don't know a ton about their staff in the same way that I do about Ohio State and Oregon for example but Ohio State staff has really course corrected in beautiful way after their losses to Michigan outside of the strength and conditioning position and even there they're good Mickey mate is a great strength and conditioning coach I just don't think that he's Elite and if you want to be number one in the country you got to be El lead at everything if you want a dynasty and Ohio State expects to have a dynasty the Buckeyes last year continued their run of 11-2 Seasons the third in a row now for most schools that's a Dynasty right there but for Ohio State that is pathetic rather it was the second year in a row where they started 11-0 and finished 0 and2 0 and2 against top 10 opponents specifically last year or for Missouri they technically weren't ranked in just inside the top 10 I believe or maybe they were 10th when the final cfp rankings were out they may have been 11th or 12th I forget so if you want to say top 15 fine in 2022 it was number one Georgia number three Michigan were their final losses of that season so very painful and their games against Michigan Missouri and Georgia three out of the four were very close games definitely winnable just on a different day they were third in fpi after being ranked first in fpi for much of the Season fourth in efficiency and they played a tough schedule Missouri in the bowl game Notre Dame on the road Wisconsin on the road and of course Penn State and Michigan the two best teams that they played all season long they had a top 15 offense by efficiency and by scoring defense it was the number two defense in the country per ESPN's efficiency Ohio state had the third best defense behind Clemson and Michigan I respectfully disagree I think their defense was much better than Clemson's defense but that's beside the point just wanted to give some efficiency stats along with scoring stats for the bucks and from last year very similar to Texas and Oregon they return just around that 23 level of production but they don't move conferences and Ohio State has consistently built upon several top five top three recruiting classes in fact their 2021 recruiting class A lot of their commits are still with Ohio State and that was the number two recruiting class in college football and one of the best recruiting classes of all time in regards to average rank per player they just had less commits than Alabama that's why they were ranked lower than Alabama's recruiting class that year which was one there's was two but Jack Sawyer JT Tui MOA were a part of that class trayon Henderson was AA ebuka all of these players are seniors I don't think any of them were redshirted I mean they they are awesome especially in regards to Henderson and egbuka and now say Sawyer awesome college football players and Ohio State while not returning the same amount of production as Oregon and Texas I will tell you a massive part of that see you can't just rely on returning production and you can't just rely on returning started you have to look at both Michigan State returned a ton of production from 21 to 22 for example but it was bad production their returning production was mostly from their defense not their offense their defense was was the weak point the area that returned the most production was the secondary which was one of the worst in the country and you could see just from those returning production stats that you couldn't take that as a positive with how bad that group is that's part of my complaint with Texas a lot of their secondary production returns but their secondary was terrible it it was an atrocity given the talent they had for Ohio State what they lose in returning production out outside of their linebackers and Josh Proctor and Marvin Harrison Jr is Kyle McCord and Kyle McCord wasn't good enough to be Ohio State starting quarterback now he was a good great quarterback but at Ohio State they need a lead I don't know if they're getting a lead out of will Howard but what I will tell you is Dylan Gabriel one of the best quarterbacks in the country he's a sixth year college football player his upsides limited I think that's a part of the reason why he left Oklahoma yeah he's one of the best in my opinion in college football but I don't exactly think that Oklahoma believes that's the case and they were going going to have a tight competition with him and Jackson Arnold who might prove me wrong and be one of the better quarterbacks in college football this season we'll have to see that's the beauty of the sport and Quinn yers Quinn yers has been inconsistent for two years will Howard much like Gabriel sixthe player doesn't have the same amount of achievements under his belt the same statistics but Ohio State outside of the offensive line their running back wide receiver rooms and also their QB room will Howard I don't know if he'll win the starting job it's likely but they could have Julian saian step up to the plate maybe Devin Brown pushes I don't exactly know they have the same depth at that position that Texas does if not potentially more depth but I don't think they have the same caliber of starter if we're assuming will Howard starts because I think Quinn yers and Gabriel are better than Howard but again like all of these prees and predictions these are just hypothesises if that's the plural term they're just educated guesses but Ohio State returning more starters is huge than recruiting slightly better higher quality players than Texas and Oregon and returning the same production and having in my opinion a much better head coach landing and Sark were ranked ahead of day in ESPN's top 10 coaching list that's asinine I mean that is straight up it's it's wrong that's what it is it's straight up wrong day is 56 and8 and I'm sorry sarkesian Lanning what big win do they have that is more impressive than day's win over 2020 Clemson or more impressive than day's loss to one of the better teams of all time in 2022 Georgia you can't name it beating Alabama and Tuscaloosa is impressive but that was sabin's worst Alabama team since maybe his second year there and Dan Lanning 0 and three against Washington arguably the best team that his ducks have played in the Pack 12 when he's there and against Georgia and this is the first game of the season so I'm not going to hold it against him three to 49 Sark and Lanning are younger at their respective jobs than day is at his sarkeesian has had two seasons in 21 and 22 that wildly underperformed expectations or underperformed their potential Lanning has had game management issues that are at least as bad as days and on top of that Ohio State returns more starters Ohio State's receiver core I think will be just as good if Oregon and Texas is and those are the strengths of those two schools as well Ohio state with quinon Judkins and Draven Henderson at running back that'll be better than Oregon's Jordan James and Noah Whittington it'll be better than Texas's running back room with Jaden blue and I think Cedric Baxter I could be wrong and for any Texas Fan watching this I apologize I'm not as knowledgeable about Texas as I am Ohio State and Oregon so take from that what you will but but I'm not dumb in regards to Texas football either and at defensive tackle Ohio State returns there's Ty Hamilton Ty Leake Williams they return jt2 Imola and Jack Sawyer and they have the best secondary in the country coming back bringing in Caleb Downs Denzel Burke Jordan Hancock They Come Back Lean Ransom comes back running back wide receiver defensive tackle defensive end corner and safety those are all strengths and with Cody Simon CJ Hickson Sony Styles at line backer that could be one of the better linebacker rooms in the country despite both starters leaving and quarterback depending on whether will Howard has the best season of his career or a high stealing player who's quickly growing in Saiyan starts or Devin Brown rebounds quarterback can be a strength as well the difference between Ohio State and Texas and Oregon and this is where I can see the Longhorns being better than the Buckeyes is the offensive line the offensive line is so CRI I in college football and Ohio State has recruited and developed for Collegiate purposes rather poorly there especially in the past season and IID argue the past two recruiting Cycles offensive center with Seth McLaughlin potentially Carson hinsman that's an area with big questions same with offensive tackle with Josh Simmons who's the most penalized offensive tackle in college football who's active and Josh frier is also questionable and guard Donovan Jackson's probably the strongest and best member of that offensive line but there are questions at guard 2 and tight end could be weak lengths as well but I think with the talent at those positions those could also be strengths and even if Oregon and Texas have better o lines and the likelihood says that they will Ohio state will be better everywhere compared to those two schools at every defensive position i' take an all-around Superior number two number one more likely number one defense over offensive lines that will be great near Elite or Elite but there's questions on the entire defensive side of the ball I mean Georgia won the 2021 and 2022 national titles same with Michigan in 23 the past three national champions won because of defense and also because of their offensive lines make no mistake the old Line's very important but at the end of the day TCU and Washington's high-powered speed offenses that cut through some of the better defenses statistically in the country were halted by generational or near generational defenses Alabama's offense with Bryce young was literally beaten to death like look at John mey and Jameson Williams going down playing those Georgia defenses because they hit hard they tackle they don't give up outside of that one game in the 2021 SEC Championship Game Georgia's defense didn't break and whether it's Bama in 2020 or LSU in 2019 if you're going to win with offense you have to have the best college quarterback and the best Collegiate wide receivers and that is something that no school none should bet on having because take Ohio State's word of advice for example they had that in 2022 and it wasn't good enough and I don't think Quin or Dylan Gabriel all the all respect in the world to him are not as good as stoud or burrow or M Jones in college and none of those receivers are Devonta Smith are Marvin Harrison Jr Etc so that's my case I think it is completely asinine that especially Texas and austel Oregon are ranked ahead of Ohio State in the preseason I mean look at whether it's Nebraska Missouri Texas A&M Colorado moving away from the Big 12 what have they won I mean yeah Missouri and Colorado and Nebraska have been to conference Championship games they have not been awful programs every season but Nebraska has not gone bowling since 2016 Colorado outside of that 2016 season hasn't been very good at all and Missouri they fell on hard times after Gary pinkle retired and before Eli drinkwitz's best season at Missouri last year Texas A&M has gotten even worse or at least stayed steady they haven't changed or improved joining the SEC in terms of wins and losses I I just look and it's not a guarantee that Texas and Oregon are going to be dominating these conferences I'd say that it's close a guarantee than not that they'll be contending for these conference championships but Ohio State and Georgia just roster wise what they return and who they are and by the fact that they're implanted in their conference meanwhile Oregan and Texas are trying to find new land to harvest new land to take root in it'll be hard to overthrow Georgia and Ohio State in year one especially when their rosters are better and their coaches are better than what's coming in and Oregon and Texas are really really good I'm not saying they're terrible I'm just saying the Realms that they are entering are challenging and have even better Elite cream of the crop players and programs thank you all so much for watching please remember to hit that like button subscribe to the channel click the notification Bell and comment your thoughts on this commentary down below thank you to crash 2488 and Brasa Rascal for sponsoring this video as Heisman patrons thanks to Chris Lane Conor little o for sponsoring this video and channel is All American patrons and thanks to John Lynn roming gnome Matthew sale Austin Christmas and Janisha kakro for sponsoring this video is All Conference patrons have a phenomenal day guys and I will see you all very soon bye-bye