The Big G3 Multi-Solar Storm Train Arrives | Space Weather Live Briefing 30 July 2024

Welcome and Sound Check hopefully I am live hello all can everybody hear me and see me I hope so let me know if I'm 5 by 5 by9 5 by5 however you want to State it I'll I'll take it so let me know wasn't that long ago that we were right here doing the same thing I feel and I'm wearing the same red shirt I think I'm gonna have to get a bigger wardrobe because uh I I only have so many so many red shirts that I can wear so wonderful okay looks like I see people tuning in from Maryland Mike Mike Richardson thank you Mike you say sound is good uh I believe Mike Richardson and Jerry Ryan are both in the chat they're going to be the moderators of tonight they're always the moderators they're wonderful people and they will help elevate your questions if you don't if they're not seen by me uh today is probably going to be a bit Lively because the solar storm the first of many has hit so I'm expecting to see a lots of questions and lots of talk as I can tell already by the chat it's just you guys are machine gunning the chat on by so I will likely miss a few things so if you really need to uh to get your question heard if you haven't you keep putting it up time and time again and I haven't seen it um elevate it through one of them because I always look when I see them I always tune in to what they're saying so by the same token also be nice they are not afraid to boot you if you get out of you know if you get off topic or harass people so please be nice we're all here to learn this is a very in encouraging environment now before I start uh I say I see hello to everybody I'm not going to linger too long because I know it's a bit late for some of you especially on the East Coast or if those of you if you're crazy enough to be over the pond and still awake should almost say good morning um it is uh I'm not going to linger for very long before I jump into the to the briefing but I will say before I start do not worry this is not like the Ganon storm back on May 10th okay this is not a repeat of that uh this is actually a bit weaker you'll see in this case it is another solar storm train which is typical when we have these very big events they don't typically happen once there'll be like you know a whole string of them as I've said many times when we have a bad actor or several Bad actors on the sun they have a tendency to be just angry and they'll machine gun uh rapid fire stuff all the way across the disc until uh until they disappear behind the West limb so it is not uncommon to get this many storms in a row what is keeping us on our toes is the fact that we have two separate clusters on the disc that are doing the same thing and we'll we'll talk more about that in a sec um so it's it's more of a headache than anything for us but the storms that have been fired have not been as as powerful believe it or not as what we got during the Ganon storm you know set of eight uh and so you'll see it it will unfold more slowly um when it when they hit and likely the peak will not be quite as high but it could last longer and and that in itself is a good good and a bad thing just like everything in space weather there's a good and a bad thing when it comes to that uh I see people saying speak up uh some people say audio is fine and some people say my audio is low let me know if it's low it's very low um okay people saying it's the my audio is low shouldn't be I will turn it up if it needs to be hold on I can turn it up a little bit here check check is that a little bit better guys and if it's still low hold on I can turn it up quite a bit if I need to hopefully it's not going to distort now let me know if it's beginning to distort because I don't want it to distort so I turned it up a few DB for those who uh have asked that's better okay people said good good last time I turned it up and everybody said oh no it's distorted now so I can't you can't win one way or the other okay it was fine before you turned it up some people think it's great then it okay good it sounds fine now wonderful okay guys so let's jump into it okay I'm going to turn the chat off and we will get we will get going all right hopefully that starts this thing moving off okay so as you will see BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front) Forecast immediately this is very simil simar to my typical Earth facing disc this is starting around the right early on the 27th but you notice I have this cute little guy up here and no that's those aren't aliens this is just filter wheel issues so don't worry about it those aren't aliens flying by but this is the coronograph view and the reason why I have the coronograph view up here will become abundantly clear in a few moments there have been literally machine gun firing of solar storms from two sets of clusters here for those who have not been recent you know catching up on my updates oh we also may have an echo gosh I hope I hope there was no Echo uh okay we had machine gun firing from this set of regions here okay and from the these two regions here and we'll talk more about them in a minute but these two sets of regions as they they've been synergistic in the sense that they've been connected to each other because they're they're kind of like they're like the twins that this guy gets hurt and that person feels it right they they've been trading shots back and forth and and that causes real problems for us because it it's not only causes rapid fire machine gunning of events but it also makes it extremely difficult for us to separate solar storms and even separate Source regions so you will see through the course of this you know this early part of the the um you know the presentation you will see me showing different versions of the disc and then the coronograph so for this part the disc is big the chonograph small in the next part you'll see the coronograph will be big and the disc will be small so as we start off on the 27th that's really when things began to get exciting we started having some Puffs as you can see right here we had a big fars side blast which I went over in a preing uh previous briefing so anyone who looks at this at that time and sees this massive solar storm kind of moving off uh to the to the east that was a farsighted Blast from a region that is yet to rotate into Earth viw but it's just beginning to and we'll talk more about that good old region 30 7 38 but at the same time you saw another puff here right so there were two Puffs if you saw now check it out right up on the coronagraphs you see these two little small Puffs those become bigger those are the first two storms believe it or not that are hitting now we'll talk more about those later but I'm going to just kind of let this play out because I want you to see how incredibly active region 3762 region 3764 and region 3766 get they just as you can see here at the beginning of the 28th you got a big shot being fired here yes that caused yet another solar storm you'll see it up in the coronagraph kind of coming out that is the big halo that's probably one of the fastest and and most intense storms that's like storm number four or five okay that's how far down the Train That's How many solar storms we've already seen so I'm not stopping here because we will in the next scene you'll you'll see we'll we'll stop again I'll go over them a bit more but I just want you to see these guys are like trading shots back and forth okay so we are having a lot of mclass last flares I can't even count how many one it's just since the 24th 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 at least 14 mclass well more than that because I've got smaller ones I didn't even count 14 big mclass flares and an x-class flare so that's what you're seeing in this whole mess but it almost looks more like a pot of boiling water than it looks like look then it looks like a solar disc if if you can see that cuz there's just so much going on there's so many little whistles and puffs you're seeing them here you're seeing some on the far side being launched and so we've had to separate out what those are but it's mainly region due to region 3762 and region 3766 we will talk about these more in a in a few minutes uh and I'll show you how region 3766 and 3764 are almost colliding right now and that's what's causing a big up in the xflare potential for these regions but they the neat thing about having so many there's yet another one it's a b big blast right there and that I think that's going to end it so if I back up just a smidge so you can see that again that's the big one for the second to last one we ended up having a big X flare and then you notice this one fires off just shortly thereafter and we've actually had something like two flares since then but I this was at as of 1500 or 1543 uh um UTC and it looks like we've had one two three I'm looking at my chart here about three big flares since then so I couldn't even capture them all because I had to actually you know come and actually make content for you guys so as you can see this has been a massive soup of stuff okay very very difficult to separate out I I I will do that here you'll see when I make the coronograph big uh very very difficult to separate out which solar storms are coming from the front side which are coming from The Far Side do we model them together do we model them separately if anyone was wondering why it took space weather prediction center so long to put out a multi storm en L run it's because of that I wouldn't be surprised if they tried multiple times and the whole thing just cratered on them and diverged because it's very very difficult to run storm after storm after storm and having them Collide and and and get something out that's realistic and and we'll talk more about that in a sec but that's what's been going on over the last 24 hours like I said if you want to see more uh on the actual solar storm you know details of some of the earlier uh storm launches then uh look at my prior briefing I did I had not a it wasn't a live briefing it was a formal forecast I did just a couple days ago so I'm not going to go belabor that because we already already have done that what I am going to do though is talk a bit more about these regions so down here in the bottom panel this is these two are synced the top panel the bottom panel are synced what you're looking at here is just the the regions rotating across the dis this is with HMI data so we're looking at the magnetic complexity plus I've overlaid a little bit from from 131 this is where you see a lot of flares so you get an idea when these regions are flar laring but this part this disc actually rotates this in this one I froze them in place so that you can actually see the evolution of these structures as they move okay so if you want to see the time range this is what we're talking about so basically over the last two and a half or so days you can see actually I Pro let me start it back back up because I want to show you before I start looking at this look at Region 3762 this is the one that was really starting to to flare first uh and get and get far more complicated this set of regions back on the 26th and 27th really weren't all that complicated because they were multiple regions but further apart it's only been in the last couple days that they've really started to grow new ones and really the big boy right here is region 3766 which began to emerge in between 3764 and 65 okay which is strangely enough kind of similar to what happened with region 376 3 3764 no 3664 oh my gosh look at that 3664 which I think was the Ganon one wasn't that the Ganon one gosh have we gone a 100 sunspots since then that's crazy anyway if you remember the Ganon region and we had another region I think it was 3668 and then we had a new region pop into the middle so it was kind of the similar thing but in the last time they all got so close together that they just became all one region here they're staying far enough apart that we're not getting those massive x-class flares at least not yet but region 3766 as you can watch it grow here look at it growing pretty quickly in fact you can watch region 3768 began to grow quite quickly too all of these regions here really started having a lot of fun over the last 24 hours as they grow pretty dramatically and you can see a lot of the connectivity between these regions region 3762 and 68 and then overlying fields are what are connecting these sets of clusters so we've got two sets of clusters right basically 37 64 65 66 and 67 as well as region 3762 and 68 so those are the two clusters of regions that are not only interacting with each other but they're also interacting along you know inter what do I say intercontinentally this is the pond here's the United States here's Europe I'm just kidding anyway this is kind of what it looks like right now is that they're egging other on and so since about the beginning of the 27th these we've just been having massive flares our our um flare noise floor has really increased we're sitting almost at an MF flare level I keep looking down at my at my x-ray flux here we're sitting that almost at an MF flare level for radio noise so amateur radio operators on the day side this is what you're dealing with right now okay but watch region 3766 look as it continues to really squeeze and squeeze in here that is going to be a real issue for us uh here over the next you know over the next few days if this thing doesn't quiet down or the tension doesn't let go so we're really watching this one this is the region that is going to be up and coming and of course I don't have to explain region 3762 which is the region that has been firing off the biggest of the flares here's one of the biggest yet right this is the last one I caught before uh before I had to stop which was at you know about 15 what does that say 13 or500 can't even read it uh it's beginning to change I think let me back this up a little 1330 yeah so right around 1330 was the last big flare I caught so this region and and no remember I I've said this many times as a region rotates to a certain longitude if it starts getting really active around that longitude like this one has over the last couple days then the next set of regions that rotate over that longitude might also start getting really active so let's see whether or not this cluster even if it begins to quiet down over the next couple days which I don't think it will but in case it does don't think that we're out of the woods because where this region is in longitude right now on the sun this cluster will be rotating too in the next couple days so we may have a big flare up again when this set of regions you know rotates to that to to the West limb so obviously we're going to have big chances for radiation stor stms as well so expect uh issues with GPS expect issues with amateur radio uh Dawn and dusk is going to be a bit dicey because we're going to continue to have these very large flares uh okay so remember I told you I was the next one I was going to have a big coronograph and a little disc right so this is the one that actually takes apart what's going on with the solar storms okay from the from a coronograph perspective so this disc will flash on and off and I've got it highlighted the source region and some of my colleagues may say well that's not really the source region it was more over here okay fine okay fine it really hard to tell because if you watch this it's just like a like I said a more of a boiling cauldron if anything with just a lot of little Puffs everywhere you tell me which one can connects with it which one I can only get reasonably close so and I've only pulled out the biggest of the Puffs okay and out of the Big 10 Puffs that you will see if I may call them that in this big solar storm train Noah and and well NASA models all of them but my goodness it's I I can't string them all together Noah luckily modeled four of the four largest of them the most Earth directed ones in a row and we'll talk about that in a minute so here's where the first set of Puffs were right here and you can see okay that was the far sided blast but you can see we had a first puff and a second puff right here and these are the two storms as a matter of fact I've got them labeled so we had a a a c you can see a Halo right here and you can see a Halo in here okay so these are the two Halos the first of which the outer one is the one that's hitting now so as we go through the Deep dive and we talk a little bit about the solar wind data expect as it unfolds it's going to be kind of an ugly storm I'm not expecting this to be beautiful I'm expecting it to be kind of a composite event because we've got these two storms that are literally smooshed and you know jockeying for position okay so that's number one all right so that's the first bit now we have another storm hopefully wh oh that was cute we have another storm that that happened and I was trying to stop it before we got to storm before it okay you can see that small puff there right so this will be storm number three and you can barely see it hopefully I paused it there you can see this tiny little Halo okay see that very very weak um is this Earth directed partially Earth directed okay so that's storm three now here's storm four once again same thing region 3762 this little puppy just was very storm happy fires off another one there is Storm four right there and you can see the inner part of this Halo uh and it actually as it moves out it gets dimmer of course but you can actually see a little bit of this this inner Halo clear down in here so this is again a partly Earth directed solar storm then of course the big one fires this is when region 3766 wakes up and begins to really emerge this is one of the big flares and and it just causes all sorts of stuff to come out in all of these different locations and that gives us a really ugly Halo this the modelers at at at Nasa were sharing with me how how frustrating it was to try to model this thing because there's so many different craggy Parts what which part do you model to get the speed so this is going to be a bit dicey it ended up being as as beautiful an eruption as it was it ended up being a a bit um slower uh as it came off the disc than we thought so that was why when you saw and you if you saw me say I think this could be this could be a G3 to a G4 and then we downgraded it to a G2 to a G3 yeah that's why is that this thing in coronagraphs turned out it didn't move all that fast and it was kind of weak look it see so that was that okay then we had another little puff from this region there we go whoops and then whoops let me back it up I forgot this is a two-parter it's hard to remember them all so we had a little puff here whoosh and then look down here we had another little puff whoosh so we get two whoes out here right storm six and seven you guys keep and count see why I needed to do this twice oh my goodness okay this took me all day to do by the way so this was intense so here's the next one right now we got another explosion off the Sun so that gives us whop let me go back that gave us a little light guy you can kind of see this structure in here okay another wispy partially Earth directed you we'll see not much there hard to tell okay but that's storm eight and then we had a we had a something lifting from the From The Far Side I believe that was what that was it was up here so that's not what this this is not an earth directed solar storm but as we watch here we get whoosh we get boom and then boom so we've got two booms and we've got two one boom and well not quite this one but this boom and this boom down here okay and then it also let off something down in here so there were actually three storms but two of them look like they're at least partially Earth directed this one here and this one here okay so three solar storms launched almost simultaneously that's where we get storm 9 and 10 because one of them is not earth directed okay so 10 solar storm launches that are either Earth directed or partially Earth directed in just a few days we can't even keep on top of it it takes longer for the model runs to go then then we can you know possibly keep up with this and and that's partially why if you wonder why the space weather prediction center isn't modeling every single one of them they can't they just can't it's just too much okay so that's how that goes now let's talk about the ones that they did model so as we switch to our uh solar storm prediction model of course you know this is this is enl this is NASA or I mean Noah's version of the model the top panel's density the bottom panel's velocity and you're looking down at the Sun from the North Pole with Earth being off to the right and as I set this in motion you shall see hopefully it'll move okay there we go go how many is that one two three four can you see them hopefully you can see them one two three and then the fourth one's coming or did I miss the fourth one I think I missed the fourth one and the first two already connected yeah so these were two I think you can see two in here so I back it back up hopefully you can see so there are two in the first kind of casing there that collided three and then four okay so these are the main four that are coming toward Earth now the very first set like I said is hitting us I'm expecting it to be a bit on the ugly side remember if you remember the Halos though they weren't all that intense looking nothing like the big Halos we had from the sun's Far Side from region 3738 that one is still we'll see when it rotates into Earth view if it's got much left to it I don't know it's hard to sell uh at any rate so when Swift SE modeled this they they show kind of an impact it's going to be a kind of an ugly impact as you can see uh impact was supposed to be about 6 UT TC on on the 30th well it's a little early expected that you know uh it's it we had a little bit of stuff going on in front of it there's a little stuff behind it there's you know there's just a lot of Min solar storms that are kind of clearing the way a little bit so these storms are coming through a bit more unimpeded and that means what we call preconditioning is going to mean that it's got a smooth sailing for some of these storms which will allow them to to reach us a lot you know in a lot more pristine condition but sadly they will be clustered up against one another a little bit now for those of you who remember the Ganon storm these things all merged together right and some people use the phrase cannibal CME please don't use that phrase Nat gopal Swami hates the fact that he coined that because everybody misuses it they think that these these chronal Mass injections these these solar storms are eating each other they're not eating each other they have magnetic field in them so even though the these look like they're merging together into a single structure they're not they're just pancaking each other okay they're just layer upon layer upon layer so think of it as like a a five layer club sandwich or something right a club meaning beat you over the head with right so it's a club sandwich okay so this thing is coming along but they're not cesing into a single structure and even though it kind of looks like it is here in real life you know the models can only imitate the magnetic field to to such a a certain C degree we have to keep the magnetic field passive because we couldn't run the models fast enough if we had it be active where these structures will stay separate so they kind of glob together but that's not the really way it's going to be so what that means is that you get a very tall and dense structure don't expect them to be this quite this intense this is showing you know a density of 60 particles per CC I don't think we're going to see something quite that intense and I think and it also causes it to be squished together and I don't think we're going to see something nearly that squished together I think it's going to spread out over over days more like what we see with the mag with the um the speed okay so this top panel here is showing the density the bottom panel here is showing the speed this is at Earth okay so we're worried about Earth only so you see how the how the speed kind of steps up slowly a bit more spread out than than this is yeah I would kind of expect the magnetic field structure to look a bit more kind of like this a bit more spread out so what that means and I'm sorry I can't go further with it we'll do that in the Deep dive I my my model and froze it at that point and I didn't think you know you probably should have played it out but oh well uh we'll do that in the Deep dive but uh what that means is that compared to the Ganon storm okay it's not it's it it should come a bit more spaced out like waves where we're actually able to tell the difference between one structure and another but it also means that the magnetic field strength is not going to be quite as strong even at its peak it's not going to be quite as strong now the good thing about that okay is that we're not going to hit G5 okay I'll be surprised if we hit G5 okay uh could we hit G4 yeah yeah I'll go into the 5D outlooks here in a sec um so we could hit G4 maybe sporadically if you look at HP 30 for example we'll hit it sporadically and jump down I don't think we'll see a three-hour averaged G5 I think that's just too much for for this cluster um or this solar storm train rather but what it does mean is that we'll have a lower intensity longer duration storm okay now the good thing about that is okay you're going to get a bigger chance for Aurora because you get more times you know if it's cloudy today maybe tomorrow it won't be right so you'll get a a bit longer chance to Chase aora and that's wonderful where I that kind of stuff makes me feel a little bit uneasy is only because I don't like long sustained hits I don't even when they're lower intensity I don't like it when they're longer I would rather have a strong storm that gets over with you know as long as it's not like Carrington class right I like a strong I like a stronger storm that gets over with quickly as opposed to a slightly weaker storm so if we have a if we end up hitting G4 levels which I don't think we will um we'll probably hit G2 to G3 I think this one has been forecasted pretty well but if we are sitting at sustained let's say strong G3 for 36 48 72 hours I am not going to be happy and neither are the power grids okay they don't like it when it's sustained because heat takes a long time right it's in it's an integrated effect so it's going to get intense for them so let's just pray that you know we get breaks right we can get breaks in between the storms so we get a hit and then we get a break and it calms down and then we get hit again and we get another break so that's my only thing if you're worried if you want me to be totally honest with you that's my only concern about these storms when they're not um you know when when they're just so long when there's so many of them so we'll see how it is I'll talk about the Deep dive we'll we'll take a look at the intensity of them but a G2 to G3 I think is a probably pretty good estimate of where they're going to be now where it's going to be is it going to be a strong G3 probably not probably a weak to moderate g3 at its peak okay but I've been wrong in the past and this this cycle has has out has outperformed so I'm a little a little bit sheepish to to get too intense with the with my predictions you know um because you just never know what you're going to get right it's a box of chocolates okay so let me go ahead and move on oh I just want to mention yeah I should mention that we are now moving through the the third quarter phase on our way to a new moon so the new moon uh I think the new moon will be like on the third or something I think by what is it the second the second the moon will be about 4% illuminated so you know not a bad time to catch Aurora if you can see it through the wildfires and the smoke and all the other Haze light pollution you know the moon at least isn't going to be contributing too much so okay let's move on to our five-day outlooks now talking Solar Storm and High-Latitude Aurora Five-Day Outlooks about our solar storm conditions and aora possibilities uh over the coming week at high latitudes Noah is expecting a severe storm of course especially on the 30th but giving us about an 80% chance of a severe storm at a G3 level okay so that is going to last EAS easily through the 30th and possibly in through the 31st we still have about an 80% chance of a severe storm but only what we're going to drop down to a G2 level by the 31st okay um do I think that's right I don't know I would probably for me I would probably stretch this saying we could have severe storm uh at high at high latitudes only in on Wednesday and then drop down to a major storm on Thursday and then we move we begin to move out of it and I think by Friday we're going to start seeing it calm down so we may or may not have aurar possibilities maybe some sporadic Aurora that type of thing but by the third probably pretty getting down to a pretty calm we're not expecting too much more but you know we do have a few more uh active regions coming into view so you know this this may not last uh as long this quiet may not last as long as we'd like uh and then if we switch to Mid latitudes oops if I can get to Mid latitudes come on hello are you going to go to mid- latitudes for me there we go okay at Mid latitudes well Solar Storm and Mid-Latitude Aurora Five-Day Outlooks expecting major storm conditions definitely uh G2 is likely possibility for G3 is say I'm going to say about a 35% I think Noah drops down to a 20% uh on Wednesday for a a major storm I still think that the chances for a major storm will be a bit higher these two days I think are going to give us some decent stuff because we do have a few storms in there that they don't even have in their models yet so H I think it could linger longer than they might think think it will but if we drop down to minor storm conditions by the 1 uh definitely going to have you know around G1 conditions with about a 20% chance of a major storm on on the first and then by the second we'll drop into an aurora watch at Mid latitudes don't really know if we're going to see that much more Aurora just the dedicated folks should be still out there chasing and then by the third we should definitely be calming back down and again and then looking back to the sun right because we might have some more chances for for bigger storms uh with that sneaky region 3738 rotating back into view and by then it that region may actually be getting close to the Earth strike zone so we'll we'll end up seeing there okay so now as we switch to our solar flare and day side radio blackout Outlook over the coming week we Solar Flare and Dayside Radio Blackout Five-Day Outlook are sitting in the 220s right now for solar flux and that's likely going to calm down just a smidge but I don't want to calm it down too much because again region 3738 is going to rotate back into Earth viw and I don't really know what it's going to be giving us if there's anything left this is that region that had that x14 flare and then the X like six or seven flare and then and then another X11 you know does it have anything left in its tank it's hard to say uh we don't get good enough views from from solar Orbiter to really really know you know so we'll just have to see but right now we're definitely dealing with some severe noise on the bands and I'm going to keep that all the way through the 5 day because uh regions 30 3766 and 3764 especially are still still going to be quite noisy and then this new region likely will bring quite a bit of Noise with it as well Noah is giving us about an 80% chance of R to1 R1 to R2 level radio blackouts right now uh that might just downgrade just a smidge but I don't think it's going to back us out of the severe noise category because I mean we're almost sitting at an M flare level for solar you know for for um x-ray flux right now so that's a huge noise level for everyone uh about a 25% chance of x-class flares at the that's a radio black out at the R3 level that's likely going to calm down just a smidge but I don't want to drop it too far until we get a good look at Region 3738 so this is a week that on the day side radio bands it's not pretty and with the big storms hitting on the sun's night side or the the Earth's night side amateur radio operators you guys are just going to have to hunker down and just pray there's no big hurricanes right now because this is not a good time for radio propagation at all um and I'm hoping things will calm down next week but we we shall see we have to get through this week first okay so just grin and Barrett and also for you GPS users same kind of thing and even you Precision agriculture uh your farmers do your best um you you may have better you may have better better conditions on the daytime until you get big flares and deal with some position lock uh you know and and and um signal loss and stuff like that and then recapture and then signal loss again and just intermittent outages if you go to the night side that's when you're tractors may actually be like turning circles and chasing their tails I I it depends upon how bad the the storm gets so you if things aren't working during the daytime try the nighttime if things aren't working so well on the nighttime try the daytime just try different periods of operation and things may work out better for you um but yes it could possibly affect your rtk systems as well as we've seen with the Ganon storm so all right and now as we switch to our um Radiation Storm and Polar Aviation Five Day Outlook hello radiation storm and polar Aviation out look over the coming week we are sitting at the D1 normal range right now everything is quiet this is at flight level 360 for you aviators it's also the s0 quiet range for everybody else we're sitting with about a 20% chance of S1 to S2 uh radiation storms at the moment I I'm going to pop that risk up to maybe about 25% as we move close to the end of the week and that's because that cluster with region 3764 and 3766 and 65 and 67 they're all there's so many regions that I think we probably will see this rise a little bit even though we will lose region 37 um 62 off the West limb uh again this isn't really factor in the old region 3738 which we know did fire some radiation storms on the sun's Far Side so so this especially as we move out past the F day things may change quite rapidly okay so that's pretty much what we have right now uh definitely check those IO advisories often if you are a pilot pilot uh or even a UAV flyer because you're going to want to know when um you know when we get those radio blackouts especially if you're doing SNR or reconnaissance um it can be a real pain for you um you know on on on the day side or anywhere near Dawn and dusk as well okay and that I believe is pretty much all I have and we can go into a deep dive and I can talk a bit more about the um see I'll go to yeah I'll just show the Sun a little bit uh and we can talk about the Deep dive uh talk about the storms that are hitting and we can go into uh some of the the solar flares that have been popping off over the last couple days and some of the stuff that I didn't quite make it into this forecast simply because I had to turn off the the data machine so I could jump on the editor and get this stuff ready for you so that's it guys hopefully that wasn't too long for um Post BLUF Q&A and Deep Dive you know for the bluff and we'll jump into a deep dive I don't see where my time is how long I've been on live how long have I been on 38 minutes a little bit longer than normal but not not hopefully not too bad let me put the chat on real fast so we can take a look and um and I'll I'll see if I can answer some questions for you okay oh my goodness look at the chat catchup yikes I can't read that fast so um okay spinning tractors so it's moving too quickly oh my gosh how far south will the Aurora be um likely if it's going to be a G3 it's going to be you might be able to see it as far south as like the upper tier of Arizona right if you're if you're if you're in central United States um you might be able to see if you're in Austria for instance in Europe and you go up high or if you look at some of the webcams over the over the mountain ranges there you probably will get a chance to see it we'll switch I'll switch in just a second to the real- time data so you can actually uh we'll we'll talk a bit more about the intensity of the storms that we're seeing thus far and uh you know go go look a bit more deeply but um yeah it's it's I would pay attention uh because things are going to ramp up slowly and um and the the later storms might be you know might even be more intense than these so just just pay attention you definitely have a good chance for some decent shows it's not going to be like the Ganon storm though it's not going to be down to Venezuela okay so that's uh yeah so just be be aware of that and know that don't don't believe all the hype on YouTube uh people are talking about a Kill Shot there's no kill shot here uh will aora be visible tomorrow night yes most likely so um you know as long as the magnetic field orientation of these solar storms are the right way uh we will see some Aurora and right now I think well when I last look prior to this briefing the uh field was pointed northward and that's not conducive for Aurora so we will get a big bump likely in um the KP index but we may not have decent Aurora show yet okay not at least not at mid- latitudes so we have to make oh oh really bz made it to minus 12 and it's starting to climb a bit that's Gunslinger thank you for that I appreciate that yeah we'll take a look here in a moment strange is a new normal yeah yeah you know it's just solar maximum it really isn't uh it's really not that that big a deal to be honest it's it's this is this is reminding me as I've said before this is reminding me more of solar cycle 22 which are the cycles that I grew up with when I was in grad school cycle 23 was the anomaly so everybody who thinks that oh goodness this is this is the you know this is so unusual and it's so abnormal and no no no cycle 23 the quiet cycle was abnormal and sadly that's when we started getting really good with all our cell phone technology and stuff like that GPS and blah blah blah blah blah and putting it in consumer hands that was the wrong time for the sun to go quiet because we've become very complacent and we don't realize what the sun is capable of um even on just a normal you know a normal day okay let's see what would be the best time to step outside and look for Aurora you know the best time honestly well obviously at night right you're not going to see much during the day I'm sorry for being flippant but um I would probably start depending upon where you are of course uh if it's nighttime the the well obviously you can start looking tonight if if it's going to be nighttime here soon on the west coast we still have daylight um but over the next couple days I would think within about 24 hours from now we'll be close to the peak but it's hard to say because we have to get that magnetic field orientation the right way so the best thing to do honestly is is talk to you get online look on social media especially Twitter X Twitter if you want to call it that uh because that's where the the biggest grouping of us and all the meteorologists and all the space weather forecasters and scientists kind of congregate and talk about real time effects and that's where everybody also all the citizen scientists post their their Aurora photos so if you want to know when and where Aurora is happening that is the place to be um so that's the best I can give you is in terms of that okay um snowing here in mid Canterbury oh I'm so sorry Josie that's that's terrible yeah well over the next couple days hopefully you get a chance for things to clear up for you um okay okay Nixon fire east of Tula yeah I know some of us are dealing with some serious fires and it's just really nasty um Let me let me hold on I just accidentally moved this I don't want to move this I want to keep it there so I can see what you're what you guys are chatting uh what is the chance of those close sunspots this is Kev kevs Kev I can't tell what is the chance of those close sunspots combining into one large Sunspot well they won't um the ones that have the same polarity might might uh come in and Co coales but if they have different colors that's magnetically they're they're not going to um uh it's they're going to try to pull past one another and and so they won't really coales into a single spot it doesn't really work like that think think of sunspots as submarines right like in a big sea like the so the the surface of the Sun is like a big ocean and and these sunspots kind of like Periscope up they kind of uh are buoyant magnetically buoyant they rise to the surface and they break the surface and that's when you see them and then they'll dive Back Down Under the surface so think of submarines trying to merge they're not really going to they might Collide and bang into each other and that may reorganize them and that's when you get big flares but they're going to you know they'll submerge and change so you're not really looking at the entire you know the the full object you're just looking at the surface and seeing what's going on right at the surface so it's a bit more complicated than that um okay Earth pole shift information do not this is Reese do not worry about the pole shift okay what you may see with these big storms is that we might have a little bit of Equatorial Aurora so people in Portugal might see Aurora people in Hawaii might see Aurora people in Brazil and Chile might see a little bit of Aurora and they won't see it as a discreet Aurora like the the green you know the the pillars and the pretty you know undulating things they'll see it as this diffuse stuff kind of like the big SAR arcs we'll likely see a big SAR Arc with this if not you know something glowing that's big red kind of like a red sky um that's and that's just because of the Dynamics when you have these big storms they are able to penetrate to a to a point where they are able to excite certain parts of the um should I get into it uh certain parts of the Ring current and then plasmasphere and there's all these names um and and because of the nature of how the particles are penetrating and precipitating into the upper atmosphere that becomes much less um undulating and dynamic it becomes more diffus looking so it's kind of soft and that's the way um equatorial Aurora looks as well um and we might see a bit more of that as the poles shift because now we're beginning to see the effect of the quadripole field the the South Atlantic anomaly is actually stretching into possibly two poles but the quadripole field is definitely strong enough to withstand and stand off the solar wind don't worry about it tests have been done models have been run we are fine we've we've done this you know our our Earth has done this many times and uh and on top of that um it makes the gic's the the geomagnetically induced currents weaker which is wonderful for the power grids actually I wouldn't be surprised if that's what helped with the Ganon storm because we didn't have nearly as many power grid issues as we have in the past um and that's likely because gic's not only have we trained the the power grid utility folks to be better at what they do and know how to to mitigate through these big storms but also I wouldn't be surprised if it's because the gic's are a bit weaker than they used to be which is nice um they're still strong but it's not not quite so bad okay Mike Richardson uh I see it okay must be on your end I'm sorry Stephanie if you're having trouble okay so wages world was doing a live stream but he had to end it due to a tornado warning oh my goodness I hope he's okay thank you Linda please if you see him tell him you know I hope he's all right yeah um terrestrial weather is a bit more immediate isn't it yeah um not good luckily here in Los Angeles we don't have weather we have traffic traffic is our weather we have a blizzard on the freeway that's about all we have earthquakes and traffic so uh yeah outside of that very few very few weather issues to deal with um ham operator says tamaa thanks so much for helping keep hams informed you're very welcome yeah I'm sorry you're going to have trouble over the next few days with this stuff but if you are doing Aris or races and um you know helping out or in Cajun army or doing any of the ham the hurricane watch Nets if any are activated I don't see anything on my geacron right now showing me any big hurricanes good so if that happens to arise in the next couple days you know just know that you'll you need to switch frequencies quite a bit on the day side go up to higher frequencies on the night side go to lower frequencies when the storms hit that will help mitigate some of the issues okay um viewing possibilities in the mammoth area yes if we get to a G3 yes the there it will be possible as a matter of fact I'll go ahead and switch to um yeah Linda I I I see that and thank you I I understand that that wages world he talks highly of me and and I speak highly of him as well um I think he's actually chatted with me a few times uh in comments let's see so let me do me teaching okay so I have switched to my live feed here so you can see goodness look at this look at just since the 27th right this is where our x-ray flux was this is where our x-ray flux was right sitting at I don't almost almost the here's the C floor if you can see that little line This is where we were for the X-ray flux until the 27th Wham right here is the beginning of the 27th this is why I showed the data from that point on it's because this is when everything gets really interesting and if you notice we get clear up here to the m floor okay and that's we're just below the M floor right now for the noise look at this look at this line just barely hovering below the M floor and you know I I think I got data up to about this point here I think I was just catching the edge of this flare right here in the data so I caught the X flare but you know there's been one two three maybe four mclass flares since then I just couldn't catch them all but as you can see uh we've had quite a bit of of activity with the biggest being an x1.5 uh correct me if I'm wrong was this this was from region 3762 right if I'm correct it was that's the biggest one is but we've gotten quite a few X near M or near x-class flares from region 3766 as well so a lot of activity here now let me switch quickly to the realtime solar wind oh this is looking pretty oh hello okay this is more like it yes yes yes I love it okay so as you can see I I like solar storms don't be afraid this isn't a Planet Killer it's not even close this isn't even 209 a Tesla okay for those of you who are so what we are looking at is Upstream data at L1 okay so this is about when the solar wind is moving at about 485 not even 500 kilometers a second so this gives us about 40 minutes 45 minutes head leeway head start so this is just Upstream of Earth so this data is just beginning let's see how many hours is that one two okay so so each one of these ticks is an hour so we are just beginning to to really start warming up and I I'll take a look at the AE index here in a minute to really kind of see this but this is what when we started the the you know when I started the stream I was looking at the data and I think it had just gotten to here so I was expecting uh I'll turn it on to the when we do the Deep dive and I'll I'll take a look at the data and it'll it will probably be all northward and it'll be all bummer but this looks nice so we've switched now to Southward magnetic field this white uh stripe here this white line is the total magnetic field strength the red line is the northward Southward component you can tell it's northward if it's above zero see where that says zero so anything above zero is northward anything below zero is Southward so yay yay yay this is fun stuff and anything above 400 so I jump down to the speed which is here you can read the the tick lines here go from 300 to what is that 600 km a second 3 to six so right now we're sitting just below 500 kmers a second okay not too bad uh remember these are the weak solar storms these were the first two Halos that that that were coming back to back um that's pretty nice if we're sitting at 500 kilometers a second for them and almost a 20 n Tesla field this is could give us some decent uh decent storming definitely G2 if this stays Southward through the whole thing goodness we could easily hit G3 just from this first storm so then I say well the chances of a G4 increase okay um but uh to get the auroral oval to open up and as some auror begin to move down to Mid latitude you need about a speed of about 400 kmers a second that's a rule of thumb okay and you need a magnetic field intensity Southward mag magnetic field intensity of about a little bit more than minus5 nanotesla so we've got some decent magnetic field here we're sitting at what is this minus 11 it's almost double that okay so yeah we could get some decent um get some decent impacts from that let me look up real fast AE index for those of you who do not know keoto whoops I had it on oh well one extra click uh today let's see NOP not doing much yet so this is the AE index is basically the rural electret and it means it's showing us what the currents are it's kind of like the jet stream for terrestrial weather but it's it's um in this case it's more for um electromagnetic fields right so what we're looking at here what we want to see is this thing begin to Peak up to above 500 once you start peeking up above 500 this top line here then you're starting to get actual um substorms so Aurora is brightening so we're not quite seeing that yet but it will begin to happen uh likely because we just haven't we barely this thing is just barely hitting Earth we've only gotten about an hour of this at the Upstream monitor so Earth is just beginning to see it right so where where we're seeing it here and it's it's already passed us this far Earth is only beginning to experience the flip okay so it's just going to start building which is nice now let me just check the other components really quickly oh and I'm just taking a look at it just trying to see if I can see anything in there is it coherent yet no I don't know we have a few planer structures which definitely show magnetus sheath for those who recognize planer structures noi if you're watching he hears your headaches right you don't like these planer structures here's here's one here's another here's another it's when the field goes Flip Flip Flip Flip and it goes like a like a box car box down some people who have who are geomagnetically sensitive really don't like planer structures in the magnetic field because it makes the Earth ring like a bell and it just sets up these vibrations and these standing waves that are just nasty um and we're trying to learn more about how that affects people but there are geomag gentically sensitive people who just don't seem to do well with those speed continues to ramp up so that's telling us that these structures are being compressed likely but not very much because we're not seeing really super intense um you know we're not seeing density continuing to ramp up so we'll just have to watch it more closely uh over the next you know obviously um Let me let me I'm going to squish it all together really tightly for a second just to see if I can see trends yeah density is not doing it's not showing much of a trend but the acceleration sure is okay so I think we're still in the magnet sheath of this so we're the front we haven't gotten into a solar storm core or anything yet so we've got a long way to go but it is just beginning to ramp up it's going to start looking good I'm going to check hp30 if you guys don't know what this is these are um very much like the KP index but they are done instead of three-hour average they are done um uh every 30 30 minutes to to 60 Minutes depending let's see do you guys do 10 days for each yeah but it's too much let's just do daily so yeah you don't give me the man um so hp30 right now is sitting is sitting you know or or when it hit was sitting at about a five and a half so it didn't impact all that hard but that what that means is you know that's storm level right for half an hour so we definitely got a little bit of a of a I don't know if it was enough to be a sudden storm commencement but it was enough to give us a nice little jolt so the chances of you seeing active conditions to to possibly storm level with um KP it's yeah it's possible here's the HP 60 so a 60 Minute average jumps us up to four and a half with it back down to three and it'll jump back up again so yeah we probably will see um when KP is is ratchets up a level which it hasn't yet as you can see here whoops that's a terrible rendition let me just blow it up as you can see KP is not up high yet okay it's still we're still waiting um it will probably jump up to I would say four to four and a half uh it might jump up to five uh depending upon how long this this takes but I don't think we're I don't think you're going to see it jump up to a G2 um it'll be it'll be probably probably a if you had to average it I would say it would be a kp5 so we'll hit minor likely start off with minor storm conditions and then we'll build from there okay so from that perspective the the uh forecast isn't doing too badly and and again if I go to enl here we can actually play the whole thing I'll make it dark here so here we can actually play the whole thing out and get out of the way so you can see the whole thing so you can see how they you know and there's got one left over here this does not include if I go back just to smidge the last storm this guy here does not include the um one at least one if not two I think it doesn't include because this run says run time was 7299 uh so this this doesn't include like storm 9 and 10 I don't think so you might see another model later that has storm 9 and 10 but as you can see some of these storms are only partly Earth directed if I'm not standing in the way some of these some are weaker I don't even know if that's a storm or if that's a uh just an echo um but this one is partly Earth directed and as you can see they do show you know impact of these structures but pretty weak but then again you know we're sitting at 60 n or 60 uh particles per CC so down here is like 10 particles per CC so it looks like there's nothing there but there really is so that's why I say look at this look at the velocity profile to get an idea a better idea of the length of the impacts you know what I'm saying um if you want to get an idea of when do I go watch Aurora anytime in this area Okay so even when I'm done you can just go look at this this on this space weather prediction center page and get an idea from there okay and I think guys that's all I have so let me answer other questions if you haven't thank you Jerry for putting that up yes if you if you join us on patreon of course you know half of the stuff before I even do a live feed because I'm I'm chatting with people in the in the we have a welcome Lounge like a a group chat that um I oftentimes kind of like a little private Twitter uh that we post stuff on and then uh I also do internal posts just for for Patron people um so that I can be a bit more chatty and a bit more casual because I I consider everyone in patreon to be you know like family and so they don't mind if I mess up or accidentally leave an exploitive in my forecast which I did once a long time ago I've been much better since then um I messed up a scene and yeah that was terrible but you know let a live and learn so that's you know a little a little bit more behind the scenes stuff goes on back there but um but you get a lot more insight as to what's going on and I'm a lot more uh you know want to answer people's questions which reminds me let me check patreon to see if anyone has asked any questions on patreon um who did not join the chat with us here was unable to let's see hold on a second oh yeah yeah there it is okay uh all good from New Zealand that's Kathy O'Neal Stephie B says red shirt and Victoria Christ Christensen said maybe a bit unrelated but I remember seeing an article during the last solar cycle where the sun's magnetic pole reversal was described got me thinking how do you actually tell when the sun's South Pole and North Pole has flipped I also wondered if the sun's magnetic pole reversal is why we often see two peaks during solar maximum yes um when if okay so we're talking about the Sun not the Earth's magnetic pole reversal so when we talk about the sun's magnetic pole ho at solar maximum as we cross through solar maximum that's when the um the sun's dipole component of the of the field flips a lot of people don't realize this that but every every planet every star that has a you know every Celestial body that has a magnetic field doesn't just have a single magnetic field it has a a huge set of them just like every sound it's pretty much any sound that that is made in nature has harmonics okay now the fundamental harmonic right the fundamental tone for the magnetic field of of of anything is is typically the dipole field well I shouldn't say it's typically it is the dipole field okay it's the largest of the field that has two poles and it's the one that everybody notices right it's the one that that is is dominating during most times but just underneath that a little bit weaker is the quadriple field quadriple field has four poles okay just below that a little bit weaker than the quadriple field is the octopole field it has eight poles beginning to to see this how this works right it's a series to be honest it's it's an infinite series just like harmonics you have if you think of sound waves or electromagnetic waves you have a a you can have a fundamental that has you know a a trough and a peak you can have a full wave which then has two Peaks and two troughs or two nodes rather three nodes actually and then you can have more more higher harmonics that have more little waves and they all can be held like all pinned in the same space and they're just considered harmonics of each other you can actually do this with jump ropes right you can take a jump rope and you can make a big single Wave by Rolling it in a circle and you can just have the the jump rope look like this from the two edges or down like this from the two edges or you can shake it and have it do one of these or if you shake it faster it can have more Wiggles but it still stops at the nodes at the two edges where you hold it right those are harmonics and those are higher harmonics the analogous the analogy to or the analogous um what should I say system uh when it comes to magnetic fields and a lot of other you know um we actually have it in sound wavs too depending upon how you're looking at it but and the analogous system in in at least in magnetic fields planetary magnetic fields and in Celestial body magnetic fields is this dipole quadripole octopole and higher level components now when the sun reverses its field every 11 years it's only the dipole component that's reversing okay and even though you'd think that it would be when the dipole field is its strongest that that is solar maximum it's not it's actually when the dipole field is in the middle of reversing when it's zero and we have what we call a multi-polar sun that's when the field is weaker but it's very very complex and because of the complexity that's why we get things like solar flares and all this transient weather it's shedding all of this magnetic flux and energy um as that di as that dipole field is reconfiguring and I do uh many courses on this you can look at sunspots and and I think it's called sunspots and telescopes where I talk about it um I don't know if I've done a recent one uh on a more recent one than that on on the magnetic field of the sun I'm trying to think did I do another one other than sunspots and telescopes I can't remember I might have something in well I do have something in the um the or I think it's the E Series which is the or the H series The the breathing heliosphere series uh because I talk about the solar cycle but it's literally when that dipole field goes to zero and the quadripole field takes over that's when we get a lot of solar flares and how you can tell not only is it because it's extremely active like now but the polar coronal holes go away because when you have a dipole field and it's everything's very well ordered not only do you not have any space weather not at least quiet space weather only fast and slow solar wind but you have two chronal holes at the at each pole in the north po field or North Pole and in the South Pole and you have very you have no sunspots essentially and you have a just a very um the the the magnetic equator on the sun is basically the same as the geographic equator it's almost completely straight but during a you know during magnetic pole reversal for the dipole field the sun's magnetic field looks like a lava lamp I mean there's just islands of magnetic complexity everywhere there's poles everywhere and you'll have big chronal Mass injections big solar storms being launched from the poles and you won't have any um coronal holes at the poles they'll be little splotches all over this the solar disc and pretty small so it's it's a very interesting um set of dynamics that that we undergo and maybe I should do another mini course at some point that really goes into that in detail the reason why we have two peaks often times is because the Northern Hemisphere and the southern hemisphere magnetically of the sun they don't always concert they don't always um they're not always agreeing with each other when solar Max or solar men should be and so if they're offset and out of phase that can actually cause double Peaks and how I talk about it is if you take Sunspot number and you take my hand for instance being small Sunspot number peak of the Sunspot number and back down to small so that would be the the solar cycle right minimum maximum minimum again think of that as not just for one cycle but two hemispheres well if they're both aligned then you put one hand on top of the other and they add and so you get a really tall Peak and it comes back down to minimum that activity cycle is really narrow it doesn't last all that long but it's really tall because you're adding these two together and they're doubling each other but when the two cycles are at a phase and they don't agree when solar maximum should be then they're aligned not on top of each other because they don't happen at the same time one happens first and then the other so what happens well you start at a a minimum you go up to a peak see this hand there's one Peak then it kind of dips down a little bit and then it goes back up to a second PE Peak and then it goes back down and look how wide it is right so it's not as tall but it's a lot more wide so that's what the double Peak is so typically solar cycles that are are weaker last longer okay so instead of nine or 11 years they last 14 sometimes and they don't go as high they're not as high in activity but they last longer and they typically are double peaked and the TP the amount of the double Peak really kind of talks about really speaks to how how AR you know how much in disagreement the two hemispheres are so if they're really in disagreement they really don't like each other right they don't one one wants to one wants to go to solar Max and the other one's like nah I ain't feeling it well then the two peaks will be really far apart but if they're both almost aligned or one's just five minutes late you know sorry honey I forgot the keys let me come back and get it all right I'm out the door now right so just a few minutes late well then the the two peaks are pretty close together and you can't even tell that it's a double Peak see just like my hands are are overlapping you can't tell but if they're really spread out in time well then you begin to see that double Peak make sense so the more or less that they're overlapping really it's it's talking about what we call this this a this hemispheric asymmetry which is um something that we're just beginning to understand but it really has a lot of implications in terms of not just the strength of the solar cycle and its length but also the complexity of the events that come some of the biggest events that we have Carrington class events they come with not the big Cycles but the smaller ones because the magnetic field complexity is so much higher because the two the two hemispheres aren't aren't in agreement with anything so they're magnetically arguing with one another and that makes activity a lot more intense um there's less activity but the activity that we have can end up being where we get the extreme of the extreme events so it's it's an interesting interesting um Dynamic there that we're still beginning to unravel hopefully that's that's an okay explanation for you so there you go okay uh any other questions guys I know that was a long-winded answer but um I am going to let's see I'm g go back to take a look at our see if we got any more updating here are we still looking good yes we are still looking good um magnetic field is kind of wiggled a little bit but it's still down so it's still staying Southward and let's see if AE is beginning to respond yeah little bit look at there it's the beginning people up in high latitudes are going yay so we'll see we'll see so we're just beginning to start to have fun so go out there and enjoy okay don't uh don't freak out um you know everything is everything is going to be fine this isn't as strong as the May 10th storm and uh and there should be some real good chances for Aurora for you okay guys all right I will uh yeah no no blue screen of death it's not going to cause that okay guys have a good one okay