An Earth-Directed Solar Storm with New Regions Peeking | Space Weather Spotlight 15 August 2024

we have an earth-directed solar storm on its way and big flare risk remains High because we have some new regions rotating into Earth view those stories and more are in this week's [Music] Spotlight if you want to learn how weather from our Star causes impacts at the Earth that shape the future of our world join professors Dr Jenny MI Michael cook and myself as we guide you through a space weather certificate program like no other to enroll in the space weather and environment Science Program offered at Millersville University go to millersville.edu swen it's weather for the 21st century this forecast also sponsored in part by CW Ops space weather over the past couple weeks has been pretty busy and this week is no exception as we take a look at our Earth facing disc we're finally saying goodbye to region 3777 which was part of why we had that big G4 level solar storm back on the 12th but we also been paying attention to region 3780 this region has also been firing a few big solar flares but not any real Earth directed solar storms at least not of yet we have been watching a bit of activity moving off to the Southwest but nothing that's Earth Earth directed meanwhile we've been paying close attention to this region this is a big coronal hole that's going to be rotating in through the Earth Strike Zone over the next couple days it's going to send us a pocket of fast solar wind but it's not expected to be all that strong could possibly give us a little bit of a roar at high latitudes but we're really not expecting all that much really the big story is region 3784 over the past 24 hours or so this region has actually gotten very active it's popped a few big solar flares and then early on the 14th pow right there it fires off a big xass flare this was an x1.1 class flare with an R3 level radio blackout you can see it all over Asia here on top of that it also launched an earth directed solar storm you can see that right here in this Halo you see this very slight signature here to the Northeast that is an earth directed solar storm this junk here off to the side is actually a a solar storm that's going west of Earth so this is kind of sandwiched in a bunch of other junk but this solar storm is definitely Earth directed now as we take a look at that we might think that this thing is going to go northeast of Earth but because of this coronal hole above it and the fast solar wind up here that could actually deflect that solar storm back down into the Earth sunline so it might actually be a bigger hit than what the models are going to say but we'll talk more about that in a minute meanwhile as we move to the east limb take a look at this region pow right there did you see that that was an m5.5 class Flare from a region that hasn't even fully rotated into Earth view yet it's likely going to be named region 3790 but this region is a big flare player and it's also launching big solar storms so expect that more chances for big R3 level radio blackouts as well as big Earth directed solar storms are in our future and now switching to our full sun map we have sdo AIA imagery that's here on the front side of the sun uh that's in red and we are lucky enough to have solar Orbiter on the sun's far side and eui imagery that of the sun's Far Side so we can actually see what might be lurking there now we have you can see region 3777 3780 that should be getting you oriented you'll also see region 3784 uh kind of emerging here this is to kind of give you an idea of what's on the front side right now but as we look to the sun's West Limb and Beyond the West limb to the sun's Far Side there's some very interesting developments you might want to be paying attention to first of all take a look at right here in between region 3768 and 62 you're going to watch new region growth right here that is going to be a very interesting configuration but it oftentimes is a big flare spawner and big solar storm spawners because this becomes very unstable when you get new regions emerging between two other ones so we're going to be paying close attention to that we also have some new activity here as well as here now interestingly enough as we continue moving this forward you notice that this sure enough ends up being the region that is beginning to rotate into Earth view now this is the one that fired that big m5.5 flare that's a culted so this is why I say we're going to have some big solar flare activity rotating into view here over the next couple days we're also going to very soon have big chances for more earth-directed solar storms so amateur radio operators emergency responders and Aurora photographers pay close attention to that East limb because new activity is surely around the corner and now switching back to that solar storm that is on its way to Earth we take a look at our solar storm prediction model enl now this is Noah's version of the model the top panel's density the bottom panel's velocity and you're looking down at the Sun from the North Pole with Earth being off to the right now as we set this uh this model in motion you're going to see that solar storm being launched here in just a moment that solar storm is moving reasonably slowly even though it's actually a direct hit for Earth We're not expecting the impact to be extremely quick in fact uh Noah is expecting the impact to be early on the 18th and it's going to be a decent impact but again if it's not moving all that fast it couldn't bump us up to really strong storm levels so we're not expecting all that much from this of course the storm could arrive a little bit earlier if so we could see aurar dip down uh to Mid latitudes but likely we're not going to see all that much from this solar storm in fact as we take a look at our NASA's version of the model and again you're looking down at the Sun from the North Pole with Earth being off to the right if I set this solar storm model in motion you're going to see that solar storm being launched in NASA's version it is actually a little bit faster than what you saw with Noah's version NASA actually has the storm hitting Earth about mid day on the 17th if that is the case then this solar storm will pack a bit more of a punch we could see storm levels maybe G1 levels uh and we could see a decent Aurora down at Mid latitude so it all depends upon how fast that solar storm is actually going to hit Earth if it arrives on the early side we could get more Aurora if it arrives on The Late side well it may be just left to a photographers at high latitudes and now switching to our moon we are passing through the first quarter phase on our way to a full moon with a full moon being on the 19th so you night sky Watchers if you want to catch those dim objects in the sky like I don't know maybe some Aurora you're going to have this bright companion so you're going to need to check your local rise and set times now switching to our solar storm conditions and Aurora possibilities over the coming week we are anticipating the hit from that Earth directed solar storm but we're not expecting all that much activity from it in fact we do even have a little bit of fast solar wind that's going to be preceding that so at high latitudes expect to be on a wind watch starting around the 16th but by the 17th we could be active to possibly minor storm conditions in fact we have about a 25% chance of a major storm starting around late on the 17th into the 18th now at Mid latitudes the story is a little bit quieter we are still on a wind watch for the 16th but not expecting to see all that much maybe if you're lucky you could get a little brightening here and there but by the 17th we could see active conditions in fact we have about a 30% chance of a minor storm as we move from the 17th into the 18th so Aurora photographers if you're dedicated you should Chase but it could be fleeting shows for you and then by the 19th things should be settling back down again to quiet conditions but remember we have those new regions rotating into Earth view and they look like they could send us some solar storms soon and now switching to our solar flare and day side radio blackout Outlook over the coming week we are sitting well in the 200s we're sitting around 250 260 this week for solar flux this means radio propagation on Earth Day side would be really good if it weren't for the big risk for radio blackouts this week uh Noah is giving us about a 75% chance of mclass flares at the R1 to R2 level radio blackout and about a 25% chance of xass flares at the R3 level radio blackout and I'm going to extend this throughout the entire 5day because of that new set of regions that's going to be rotating into Earth view so amateur radio operators and emergency responders I know you're hating life on the day side radio bands right now it's incredibly noisy out there but just hang in there and expect that radio blackouts are going to be intermittently part of just what's on the menu this week and likely next week as well before things have a chance to settle down and now switching to our radiation storm and polar Aviation Outlook over the coming week we are in the green this week we don't have any big radiation storms we're sitting at the D1 normal range this is at flight level 360 for you aviators it's also the s0 quiet range for everyone else however we do have about a 15% chance of radiation storms right now and this is because we got a couple big flare players rotating to the sun's West limb that will stay elevated for the next couple days and then it will slowly taper off a little bit we might get down to about I I don't know 10% maybe I doubt we'll get as low as 5% but we'll see meanwhile it does look like we're going to stay in the green when it comes to radiation storms so uh all of you frequent flyers in this does include air crew although you should check those Iko advisories often for updated information right now it looks like you're all in the clear so the space weather this week is keeping us on our toes we do have an earth directed solar storm that's on its way it's not not a super fast moving storm but it could get a little bit of a push from some fast solar wind that's going to kind of keep it down in that Earth Sun line so Aurora photographers if you're at high latitudes starting late on the 16th you might start looking at the skies for the that maybe a bit of aurar from that fast solar wind but then that storm should hit sometime maybe late on the 17th hopefully earlier on the 17th so you can get some decent Aurora and that could last through the 18th now if you're at midl well only if you're dedicated should you chase because you could get a chance from some sporadic Aurora especially if that solar storm is faster than the models predict it will be now amateur radio operators and emergency responders we have some new big players rotating into Earth view they've already been firing R2 level radio blackouts and they're not even fully in view yet so expect those big radio blackouts to continue to be on the menu we could also get some big solar storms launching here soon so the dayite radio bands are going to be a bit of a mess uh through this week and possibly through next week as well just hang in there and now you GPS users well you know we do have that solar storm hitting Earth which could impact uh your your GPS reception on Earth night side especially anywhere near Aurora and of course on the day side especially near Dawn and dusk you could have some reception issues due to those big radio blackouts so just stay vigilant and when that storm hits be sure to calibrate your magnetometers often I'm Tam with the scove the space weather woman thank you for watching