A G4 Solar Storm from an Unexpected Source | Space Weather Live Briefing 28 June 2024

Welcome and Sound Check okay it looks like we're going live hopefully hopefully everybody can see me and hear me I'm going to move this forward just a little bit so you guys can see that we have a live briefing here it is the 28th and hopefully everybody can see me and hear me yes see me and hear me my 5 by9 hopefully it looks like we're all moving just fine everything looks good whoops I got a make sure that doesn't start okay good no Echo sound check is good thank you Mike I appreciate that I'm glad Mike Richardson is on and you may see Jerry Ryan here shortly both of them are moderators uh of the chat so they will keep everybody honest and on topic okay so we are all here to learn and uh understand what's going on and yes good everybody seeing me and hearing me good to see you good waves Mike I see Vince notebooks in here oh good I have a fly in here too wonderful so we have a little friend have you Se Me batting the error that's going to be because I my little flying friend I've got with us today um everybody had an issue with a 400 megahertz band I don't know that's a really good question for this group of people so that's good 5 by five excellent okay so yes so for those of you who know the coated shirt I am wearing a red shirt and that's not so much because you have anything to worry about it has it's more to do the red shirt more has to do with those of us who are in the forecasting realm and this doesn't matter if you're a formal forecaster or if you're an in you're an informal forecaster whether you do it for um just enjoyment out of out of you know being a space weather Enthusiast or if you do it as a profession we need to understand that this solar cycle is not like solar cycle 24 we are consistently underpredicting these solar storms under predicting their speed and under predicting their magnetic field strength and I've seen it time and time again I myself am also I am just as guilty I think we all are guilty and the reason is because this is not the same s the same Sun that we had 10 years ago this sun is getting stronger and so we have to kind of hearken back to some of the older older solar Cycles with they when they had bigger events and the things that we see in coronagraphs now we need to look at them with an eye for strength as opposed to weakness so this solar storm is was expected and it is a glancing blow and I'm looking at if you're wondering what I'm looking at I'm looking at realtime data right now uh I'm watching it unfold and anybody who's gone to to the space weather predictions Center page for a few moments it has been down I'm not sure if it's gotten back up um I think it's gotten a lot of traffic today so it's a real good test of their new servers um anyway we're going to go through that we're going to go through the bluff uh I'm going to give you the bottom line up front to show you what's going on with our sun uh those of you on patreon you have seen this particular uh eruption so you know cuz I gave I gave a um a few days ago I gave you guys a bit of an update in a snapshot so we will go over this and talk a little bit more about it and then we'll do a deep dive okay so hello hello everyone and I'm glad everything looks good could this be due to magnetic field weakening that's good waves no this is nothing to do with the Earth this is everything to do with the sun um this is just a stronger storm and in fact it's not even not even sure it's going to stay all that exciting okay because it's a gland ing blow just we expected and and we'll talk about the details probably more in the Deep dive so let me get let me get started let me take this chat off real fast um so that we BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front) Forecast can let's see uh I think that's it right there okay good all right so let's dive into this shall we so for those of you who who are in my patreon family you've seen this uh you've SE there were so many filaments on the disc over the past week that have erupted it's been crazy I couldn't even label them all so I ended up having to make little tags to label them all cuz they're all shooting off all at once the filament that you're going to be interested in is this puppy right here okay this big long snake likee thing we've been watching this thing since since it was a baby so to speak rotating into Earth view uh over the past week and we've been waiting to see whether or not it would erupt and it finally does but let me roll through this there are so many different filaments on the earth facing disc you can see there was one bu right here I call that filament launch one of course you're getting big uh uh eruptions off of the side those explosive ones I'm not are not necessarily filament eruptions and I didn't label them but you'll see can you see all this here so here's the one we want to keep our eye on you've got another one here you've got another one up here you've got one here you've got one over here are you getting to get the picture you've got one down here you got one over here I mean there are so many little snake likee filaments and these are basically like big rivers on the Sun so you can see one lifting off right here this will be filament launch number two you'll see that and this was back on the 23rd okay so we keep going there was another explosion that way that was not necessarily a filament eruption but here's a A Light Lift you're going to start seeing some some slight um brightening from the filament Channel these are like rivers of what we call plasma and they erupt and they'll leave these very kind of bright ribbons they're not super bright they're not as erup not typically as eruptive as as big solar flares from active regions but they still can give us a bit of a of an x-ray signature so there's another filament then we had this one go right here that's filament four and then we had the same time we had filament five off the PO see why I had to label them all there are so many and as we continue to rotate into Earth view look at all the active regions right so right around here this is what I'm calling I'm lovingly calling the Ganon region okay this over here is the return of old region 3644 or uh 3697 or uh now 30 maybe 3723 or 28 or it's kind of broken up into a bunch of little pieces we're calling it The Ganon region after U Dr Jen Ganon who passed right about when this region was emerging and she was a very um important figure in operational space weather she's part of the reason why we have magnetometers on the ground in the United States uh in the ways that we have them so she was a very big player she was also a member of the swag uh Community the space weather Action Group um and they have been helping swipy at at Noah figure out how to move into the future become 21st century ready so her loss the loss that we had uh from Jen is is pretty pretty substantial in our in our community the last big G5 storm was called the Ganon storm I'm calling this the Ganon region okay it's a lot easier besides having to call it you know all these different numbers but this is the region that is now we're seeing it for the third time this is where we expected lots of big activity this is why I'm calling this an unexpected G4 because almost everybody who has not been paying attention to the sun will assume the G4 storm came from this okay so you'll probably see it in the media not true not true not true for those who are very um quick to to correct the media please do so make sure they don't link this this recent G4 storm with this region it's not where it came from it's coming from this filament okay now if you've been watching this filament it's continued to rotate in all the way to the West limb okay look how long this thing is and look how big it is right so when this thing launches it's a big dense thing but it also launches very slowly okay so here we are let's get back to this we're filament four filament five as you can see the starting of filament six okay these things continue to erupt and then watch this puppy right here this will be filament 7 now watch it right here here and I changed the color so that you can actually see so so when it erupted and actually if I go backwards you should be able to see I'm having a hard time seeing it on my screen do you see it h maybe it comes later maybe it'll come after the the coronograph I'll see if I can find it but you'll actually look look for like a loop structure very light Loop structure that lifts off you can actually see it in the low Corona and in the middle Corona as it moves off because this is subie so you get to see the middle Corona data so let's watch it again you can see it kind of erupt it looks like a lot of it is is going kind of filling back falling back into the sun like a lot of these filaments did uh falling back into the sun this way and this way and just kind of moving out of the way but there was a piece that erupted and you'll see it in coronagraphs here extremely dense see that structure very beautiful extremely dense in coronagraphs but looking like it's moving quite slowly let me back that up just a smidge okay so this is why we think it's a glancing blow we we've got a partial Halo but it's not hugely covering the the mid you know the mid um Central Meridian just barely so both NASA and no one where I'll show you the the um their uh prediction models really have this thing clipping or even missing Earth okay but we knew this thing was coming but it looks like it's moving very like a graceful giant very slowly and with our Cycle 24 training from last cycle yeah big solar storms like this okay maybe 10 nanotesla maybe 15 you know and so we're not expecting a 20 plus nanat Tesla big boy right we haven't seen those almost the entire cycle last cycle we didn't get 20 nesla storms we maybe got it once or twice and they were very explosive big things now again this is extremely dense so you might think we'd take a hint from that but this is not magnetic field that we're seeing what we're seeing here is density Okay so because of that you can't equate the two you can't say just because you see a big DSE structure you can also have a big a big solar storm but in this case that's what happened and it's moving much more quickly but the story is also not done because oh wait that's right let me see if I can let's see if I can go back can we see that I don't there it is oh I my mask covered it dang it that's too bad um so if you if I go backwards just a little bit and then forward a little bit little bit do you see the the tip part of that I'm so sorry it looks like I didn't pay close enough attention my mask cut it off but it was if you go look at the data let me back this up a little bit see if I can make it go back can you see it at all ah no my mask the mask is expanding and then it breaks sadly so you don't get to see all the corona I'm so sorry but if you go back to subie data you can see this structure lifting off and um I I'll keep going here and it it lifts off in this big beautiful Loop structure and you just saw the very edge of it lift off here anyway we've got one more uh solar storm that launches you'll see here right between these two right there see this small Demming region this is not necessarily a filament eruption this is uh a a kind of a ratty don't know what it is it's it's it is a solar storm we have a really ratty Halo in here so this is the next storm that's coming for us okay the problem is once again this structure is because it's narrow and it's moving straight out at us these are hard to model because it's hard to get the speed right but it looks like it's coming um you know it's definitely coming straight toward essentially straight toward Earth and depending upon which agency they have a different prediction and we'll talk more about the predictions here shortly okay so th those are the main structures we are still watching this filament this filament here is now in the same position this one was recently so this one now may be the next one to go we've already seen it kind of activate a little bit so I wouldn't be surprised if this thing goes here in the next few days the Ganon region though as you can see is now kind of spread out with a bunch of different regions all these guys are quiet but we'll talk a little bit more about what we see on the far side and what's coming around the bend and which one of these regions might actually have some more activity coming we'll talk about that in a little bit okay so that's basically it what I'm going to jump to now is all I'll show you the I believe I'm going to jump to the um and that was not a big eruption so don't worry about it uh I'm GNA jump to the solar storm um there we go so now this is going to be Noah's solar storm prediction model of course it's enl uh and you're looking down at the the Sun from the North Pole with Earth being off to the right there's my little flyby friend there uh and the top panel's density the bottom panel's velocity so let me put this thing in motion and you're going to see two solar storms being launched the first one is that solar storm that was the the big filament the beautiful filament eruption and you're going to see this thing really looks like it's being shot off way off to the west of Earth okay now you see the second solar storm being launched this is that tiny little puff that happens Center dis that one is being shot toward Earth but man it's just really wispy right so this is what Noah was kind of expecting right we've got an impact here uh from kind of a side swipe from from that filament eruption that's hitting basically down you know mainly mainly south of Earth and mainly west of Earth okay so no was expecting a small impact you know early on the 29th yeah it came faster because we weren't expecting here they've got a speed of you know about 400 km a second which is kind of what it looked like it looked like it was just lifting off gently and it's going to move along the ambient solar wind which is a speed of about 400 kmers a second right now and sadly I'm looking right now at at real time data and we're sitting at 500 km a second so this was faster than we expected and and kind of surprising uh but not so surprising if we think back to like solar cycle 22 but surprising when we have our mindset of solar cycle 24 okay so that's the first one but that's what's hitting now and it does have the signature of a glancing blow so that means Aurora photographers expect sporadic Aurora are we going to jump back up to a G4 probably not okay at high latitudes we may get a G3 maybe it really depends upon what it's doing uh right now the the um the yeah right now well right now we're getting into a low because we're in very turbulent solar wind at the moment and so right now the the strength of this thing has really dropped off we're sitting around nine or 10 n a Tesla completely whereas when it hit us it was over 20 so it hit hard um and was really jumbled up but it looks like things are going to be dying off so the chances of us sustaining at a G4 no and this is why I say the red shirt really isn't for anybody who's interested in in getting a a and stuff like that it's more for us forecasters to you know make sure that we understand that we are under we're under forecasting these we're under predicting these and we need and we're doing it consistently and we need to be better so uh anyway so that's that first one and then as I continue on you can see this second one as a matter of fact Noah doesn't even have this thing hitting until like whispy on like the 1st of July I don't believe that I think it's going to hit us sooner than that and part of the reason for that is because we actually have been being hit by solar storms over the last few days but they've just been so mild that I haven't bothered you know alerting anybody to them um and this is probably from some of these filament eruptions you just saw we had like eight or nine of them and so you know we're getting junk it's just not been all that noticeable in coronagraphs and so therefore very hard to model okay so expect swip's forecast to be pretty flat going out into this into the 1 of July uh but we'll talk about NASA's models here in a second and there the the forecast is a bit better so let's let me move forward to that so now we're looking at NASA's prediction model of course again it's still enel uh but now you're looking down at the Sun from the North Pole with Earth being off to the right and this is only the density panel okay so let me see if I can set this in motion there we go and as it begins you'll see this solar storm so this we're going to show you two solar storm versions two two solar storm models this is the first one this has that big filament eruption off to the east or excuse me off to the west and as you can see as it hits well it's barely grazing Earth so so Noah actually had it hitting Earth better than than even NASA did NASA thought it was going to almost Miss Earth entirely just a tiny little finger here so everybody expected that it was going to miss Earth and sure enough it looks like it's almost missing Earth we just got a bigger impact early on than um than we might have expected okay but then as we switch to and this and by the way this was again late on the late on this is late on the 28th so it's earlier than expected or earlier than that than Noah's model and model's prediction because Noah expected it to be early on the 29th so late on the 28th but still this thing came even earlier than that so if I can get this to move to the next one there we go you see here's the center this is now that small puff that came out right so this as we watch it come out no uh NASA has it hitting Earth much much sooner and I agree with NASA's impact this is going to be on the 30th right around you know early day so we're going to be kind of moving into this we're going to get a B bit of a bumpy ride through the rest of today it's going to act probably there's a very good chance it's going to act more like some fast solar wind hitting us uh so like a pocket of fast solar wind so high latitudes are going to get a lot of potential for Aurora but it's going to be very turbulent uh it's hard to say whether or not there's going to be a lot of Southward magnetic field here because the the field is just flipping back and forth so expect brightening and then backing off and then brightening and then backing off stuff like that uh is probably going to be more consistent with what we're going to see until the 30th or you know sometime on the 30th when we'll get hit by this is this going to be strong no I think it's going to be weak but what I just said is my mind is conditioned for solar cycle 24 right so possibly could it be stronger than expected yeah it could be you know so so again this is more of an issue with us forecasters needing to recognize that this solar cycle is not the solar cycle that we're used to it's not the same maximum as we had back in 2015 now and I don't always do this um this is uh I'm going to talk about the far side of the sun really quickly so we know what's coming and um I don't typically use uh solar Orbiter data in this fashion but I am today mainly because we've got the Ganon region I wanted to show you and what's happened to it and also the um uh the fact that solar Orbiter is in a really great place to to be able to do this so we're looking at um the actual data this is not a model so that's that's one of the nice things and so we're looking in red we're looking at sdo data this is on the front side of the Sun the blue is the solar Orbiter uh eui data and uh you can see the East limb where you know when you rotate when things rotate into Earth view compared to the West limb so you're going to see everything in red is the front side everything in blue is the far side and you can see from back from a few days ago this is back on the 18th you can see the Ganon region back here as it continued to uh wreak havoc and and give us a bit of activity on the far side but as it rotated into into Earth view as you'll see and I'm going to back this up a bit because I want to show you what's going on on the other side too you can see we ended up having to change lots of things we had region 3723 and then region 3728 and and it's kind of broken up a bit so it's a lot softer a lot gentler than it was and I don't even know if the Ganon region is going to be you know if anyone had to point to a singular region is which one is the G region I think it's all of these it's just kind of broken up so are we going to expect to see much more from this not really the trick is however if I flip to this side this and I'm going to back this up so we can see it here the dates as you can see are down here and I've got this up to about the the um up to about yesterday and so what I'm backing up for you to see is for you to look and see the the regions that are coming into view boy I had to back this up all the way yeah I guess I did okay now don't worry about the flickering of the the you know where it's getting brighter and darker and brighter and darker these are fresh data okay they haven't been you know processed they're not sciencegrade data so don't anyone go do science with these because they're not they're not they have to be better um cleaned and all that kind of stuff but I'm very appreciative that they put this up so that we can at least get some space weather uh information from them so watch this so this is on the sun's Far Side watch these new regions okay including including here and this is the tail end of the Ganon region because you can kind of see it over here but we got a new region pop poing up here that's still on the sun's Far Side we got another new region that'll be popping up here momentarily I probably should have made this a little bit faster you can see here's a new region okay we've got some and another one in here so we've got three or four new regions that have been emerging on the sun's far side and typically when they emerge on the sun's far side and you can see there's the tail end of the Ganon region uh when they emerge on the sun's far side right before they rotate into Earth view that means you know we could whoops that means we could definitely see some some activity here these are not quite into Earth view yet so just get ready things may actually start getting exciting again in and around the Ganon region but not probably not the Ganon region itself this region I think even though we're seeing it finally for a third time I think this is the end of it so we're not going to be worried about big G4 or G5 level storms or big x-class flares from this region anymore okay so that's one of the nice things now as we flip to our moon since I've got it here as you can tell I was getting ready to do a main a formal forecast U but I'm just using this for the live stuff as we switch to our moon we're passing through the third quarter phase on our way to a new moon and the new moon will be you know on the 4th to the 5ifth but by the 4th we're going to have about 2% I think the moon's going to be about 2% illuminated so now's a good time you know we're getting closer to to having a nice dark sky so you guys if you want to check for Aurora even weak Aurora over the next couple days this will be a really good time to do it okay so now let's switch to uh our solar storm Solar Storm and Aurora Five-Day Outlooks conditions and Aurora possibilities over the coming week now this is just for today okay for the rest of today at high latitudes could we possibly see a G3 yes possibly okay because we've already seen we've already seen a severe storm right we've already got to a G4 but that was mainly the first impact so I'm giving us about a 60% chance of a severe storm this is this is mine this isn't Noah Noah you know they're going to put out some new stuff for starting for tomorrow tomorrow I'm saying that we could be still seeing major storm levels at high latitudes and the reason for that is because we're sitting at 500 km a second right now for solar wind speed so we could still if we get even some Small Bump UPS in in magnetic field strength with all this turbulent stuff and I say turbulence in quotes uh we could still see major storm levels at um at high latitude toow and and but then as we go to the 30th expect that the the storming because we're going to have that other storm hit right and that should hit us on the 30th if NASA's got their their model correct and I I'm pretty pretty happy with their model um because you know they're these guys are good so uh I'm expecting probably we could easily see a G1 at um you know at high at high latitudes maybe about a 20% chance of a major storm but probably not going to see it and then things should settle down after that not expecting much more um right now because we don't see any other solar storms there is that one filament eruption there filament that looks like it's going to erupt in the next day and if that's the case then we might start seeing some storming after July 2nd but right at the moment looks like things are going to be settling down as we move into the 1st of July now as we go to Mid latitudes well again we got the major storm this is what I'm expecting for the rest of today we could see major storm levels it's going to take a little while for for the the um uh the KP index to drop down so you're going to probably see still a G6 don't worry about it things are dying off quite quickly uh I am giving us about a 50% chance of a severe storm just because in case we see more or that speed continues to go up it's really hard to say whether or not we're going to pop back back inside that structure if it's been distorted or folded um and and again I'm looking at the magnetic field strength and right now it looks like it's pretty much dying down we may have seen the bulk of it already and it's all gone so this may continue to just die down and then when this storm the other storm hits I'm not expecting much I'm still expecting about active conditions but I'm giving us about a 10% chance of a major storm um so it's you can see it's a bit of a spread when that second storm hits because I just don't know how strong it's going to be right I've still got the mindset of a of of solar 24 but then after that things should settle down pretty quickly at Mid latitudes because we're not expecting any super fast solar wind or anything like that okay so now let me switch to Solar Flare and Dayside Radio Blackout Five-Day Outlook uh our solar flare and day side radio blackout Outlook over the coming week uh right now we're sitting at about a 50 to 55% chance of uh mclass flares that's at the R1 to R2 level radio blackout and that's because we have such a large number of active regions and a few of them are big MF flare players I'm expecting that will either continue or rise over the next uh you know over the course of this week because we have those new regions that have just emerged on the sun's Far Side those are going to be rotating into Earth view and often times when they just emerge they have a tendency to be a bit more active so we could be seeing uh more big solar flares right now our solar flux is sitting around one 180 to 185 I think the number right now is 182 uh I'm I'm causing that to climb I'm saying it's going to climb just a little bit again because we have those new regions that are emerging on the sun's far side and as they rotate into view over the next couple days that's going to PP us up just a little bit for a little while but then we're going to have some other regions beginning to disappear off the West limb so it's probably expecting us to say just below 200 uh for solar flux over this course of this week and we're going to expect maybe about a 5% chance of of R3 level radio blackouts I'm going to say that right now that may go up uh as as these new regions rotate into view it's kind of hard to say but hopefully things will stay about like this we I'm sure amateur radio operators would enjoy being able to get a break uh since we had some noise during field day and that was not not super fun now switching to our uh our our radiation storm of polar Radiation Storm and Polar Aviation Five Day Outlook Aviation Outlook over the coming week we are in the D1 normal range right now and that's that's at flight level 360 uh it's also the s0 quiet range and everything looks to be in the green we're going to stay that way easily over the course of this week we don't really see any big chances for big radiation storms so Noah is giving us about a 5% chance for radiation storms right now and I'm going to keep it probably at 5% even through the 5day cuz it just doesn't look like there's anything there that is going to give us any real problem so this is the the basic Bluff with all the the all the good junk in it Post BLUF Q&A and Deep Dive and so I will pause right now and uh answer some questions I'll go back to some of this if you need me to and I'll also if you'd like for the Deep dive uh I will uh pull up some other data and we can look at the space weather prediction center site if their site is up let me check to see if because it it did not do well a few minutes ago and I don't know if it crashed or not I have some real-time um solar wind data but I lost because I tried to to do an update I lost their um their site yeah it looks like it's not responding anyone else want to check that if you go to swpc dooa noaa.gov goov anybody else want to check is it just me that I'm not able to get their site for some reason cuz I am not so let me know in the in the chat did Soho data go offline for a period contributing to this sneaking up on us um well we've had some spotty so uh Soho data recently but I don't think that was the cause we actually had who and who this was Mike you're asking this question uh the there's been enough there there's been enough coverage that we would would have seen it uh we also have stereo so remember we when when Soho isn't always there for us because of Keyhole Maneuvers remember poor Soho has is is you know it's it's older than most people in this chat likely and it's it's held together by by basically the the the the wishes essentially of the scientific community and the and the the determination and grit of the Soho team at this point because um that spacecraft should never have lasted as long as it has so it's it has to do it has to go offline from time to time to be able to do Keyhole Maneuvers and do CCD bouts and the like to be able to get it positioning correctly and get keep the instruments functioning well and um it's it's just a miracle that this this uh satellite continues or this spacecraft continues to uh give us great data and be a Workhorse for us um but I mean I I know even some NASA M2M folks who are scrubbing back through the chronograph data because they're so dedicated thank you Tony uh scrubbing back through the chronograph data looking for any ghosts or any indication that we might have missed some Earth directed storm um so these guys are very dedicated and I guarantee you if there's something out there they'll find it but right now it really looks like this is a a storm that is that is coming that that we saw coming it's just stronger okay it's bad on Noah people really oh Kelly and Kelly you say it's working for you it's up for you so Phil Phil's getting it certain people are getting it how interesting huh it loaded up okay it's working for you guys interesting interesting let's see let me try to load again nope not for me someone else said it wasn't working either so but it looks like most people are getting it wonder why let me try a different P let me try to load it up again wonder if it's my you know DNS where I'm where I'm at if it's not coming yeah I can't get it I get everything else coming up quickly so something yeah site can't be reached interesting I will I will try it some some other way here in a sec um but luckily I still have the solar wind so what I'm going to do is I'm going to flip this over really fast so you guys can see um oh boy hang on make sure I know what I'm looking at here no that's with the chat let me just do that okay so yeah yes yes you can see the tabs I know I know some people say you're not professional you show us the tabs oh give me a break okay so here's the so and I don't want to up refresh this right now because if I do I'll lose it but here is the solar storm hitting now okay I guess I can put this down for the moment um so this is the solar storm hitting now here is the solar wind speed this is the solar wind magnet magnetic field strength just so you know the white line is the the um the total strength of the field the black or the red line is the uh Southward or northward component we care when the field goes Southward uh more than northward it's not the only thing that matters for solar storms but it's one of the major um contributors to to Big KP levels okay and then of course the speed matters uh you can see here we sitting at what does it say 300 this is 300 here 400 500 is that right yeah so as you can see this thing slowly ramped up and that's how we know it's not just a stream interaction because this thing is it's I don't know there may be people who say no this is a stream I don't think so I think this is a solar storm and um and and it's slowly ramping up to 500 kmers a second looks like there might have been something caught in here in the middle because now we're beginning to get some magnetic or some solar wind um speed that is very smooth low variance so we're going to watch this as it continues to unfold notice the the magnetic field strength has really dropped down right right at the moment I don't know if it's going to stay like that um and I want to I want to move I want to refresh and do something else but I I just don't want to do that if I can't get back to no I don't want to lose this side uh but the density you know it was strong for a little bit right here you can see this in the orange line but not that strong wasn't that intense so likely this was just a really imp a strong impact from the storm Plus in you know immediately we went down to 20 25 nanotesla even if it was just for an hour or so that's enough to really bump us up to the to the G4 are are electric companies and utility grids worrying about this storm nah the the the the concern has passed so it was just a very short period uh did we get an EMP from that yeah likely uh was it a strong enough to to cause any any issues I don't know you'll have to ask people like Brett Carter Dr Brett Carter down in in Australia he might know uh low latitudes uh they may have felt something um but again not too much because the the speed ramped up slowly now that I look at it if it had been a super big fast speed jump than I would think so and the density wasn't a huge density increase so I don't think the EMP even from this was all that strong so I think we're fine okay so again the red shirt is more for forecasters that we need to be we need to think about this in a slightly different way and I don't know if that means that we need to think about over predicting the structures because that's not always the best solution especially for the space weather prediction center um they can't have false positives but it may mean something for the NASA M2M folks who are a little bit uh more they can handle false positives in fact I think they'd probably rather have false positives than false negatives because you know they worry about humans and if we had had people outside you know doing an Eva at this time that might not have been a good thing um so that's just something that we need to we need to to think about it as a community uh but yes this this was a surprise G4 from the perspective of it was just a filament launch and to get a G4 from a filament launch even though it was shortlived is not typical of the cycles that of the solar Cycles we've seen recently so we have to go back to like solar cycle 22 to see G4S from Big filament launches maybe maybe one and I can think of maybe one early on in solar cycle 24 but maybe not even a G4 may have been a G3 so um this is hearkening back to a different age and so those forecasters who kind of want to get a better handle for what those those that age was like go do some forensics dig into old um solar wind data and like from wind and from pvo we have we have lots of data solar wind data from those spacecraft uh and take a look and see how big the storms were and what they looked like and then take a look at the KP indices and get yourself familiar with those because believe it or not and then of course the coronograph data from that from that time because uh these storms are different this is a totally different Sun okay so let me put this stuff in let me put the chat back up so we can chat more and I'll keep it here hopefully you guys can still see yourselves and read it over the magnetic field data um whoops and now I covered the chat on my side my goodness what am I doing okay so questions questions who has questions um happy to see you you're not wearing your brown pants yes yes I am not wearing my brown pants um yeah currently looks like there's a low I agree there there is uh and and we'll see whether or not you know things pick up but often times when you have when you have uh the this side swipe and that's how you you know and I I could probably taking a risk here by popping one of the data okay yeah so when I pop in the other components the X X and Y components it is just turbulent as as all get out um there's just not a lot going on in terms of of ordered field here so this is definitely a glancing blow which is consistent with that that sideswipe so that's why I'm I'm I'm believing that that's what we're seeing we're not seeing um any any not uncaptured stealthy CME that you know stealthy solarstorm that that has crept by our our advanced warning system it's just that our advanced warning system is underestimating okay um let's see wow I I'm missing that oh I missed that uh something about you're you were wow I'm so surprised and that's all I saw um good way let's see okay uh g3s are far too old LOL yeah that's funny I wanted understand more way about more about the ways the sun is different uh hi Spirit yeah um as a matter of fact before I do that I want to show people that even the latest hux hxt hux T forecast they oh good it's perfect right with the chat um so here's the Whoa stop yours too fast goodness gracious okay so let me back that up so you're seeing right here sorry about the play button I'll I'll play it again in a sec this is the solar storm the second of the two solar storms this is that b first filament eruption so again it's very similar to the models that you've seen you looking down at the Sun from the North Pole I don't have this one annotated today um because I just went straight to the website but you're looking down at the Sun from the North Pole with with Earth being off to the right sort of where's Earth I think Earth is Black Earth in this case in this particular model Earth doesn't sit fixed Earth moves okay in its orbit so you have to kind of pay attention to where Earth is um as things move on anyway you can see these two solar storms are kind of back to back so that's why I say that over the next few days we're going to continue to see something and we're going to get a plus up I believe with this second storm but it's not going to be um you know I just don't think it's going to be all that strong okay but we are getting but they're showing even kind of a a grazing Blow from that from that one passage let's see if we can play it again okay so there's some of the stuff going off on the west limb right because this is the East limb Lim there's the West Lim and then here's that filament eruption the big one and then here's the second puff that's going to be hitting us and they had it again you know once again if you look at the dates late on the 18th or late on the 28th I believe early into the 29th let me see if I can find where they had it yeah see here's here's it's about to hit I'm not going to bother to get any closer it's about to hit and they're showing it on 2238 on the 28th so you know solar storm forecast because we only have one or two views of the sun with coronagraphs it's really really tough uh to to know exactly how fast these things are moving in what direction uh we can only estimate and and so there's lots of projection effects that cause US problems especially when they're on the limb like that you know off to the side like that it's hard to know if they're moving to the west and expanding out or if they're moving more earthward and expanding out so it's you know there are errors in the speed so this is another reason why vigil will be a really great um monitor because vigil will be if this is where Earth is Vigil will be out here and it'll be staring at the sun from the side and so we'll see a lot better view of and and speed um captures of these structures because we'll have multiple Vantage points it'll also help when stereo a which I think this is this right here this is Stereo a uh when it gets further away from Earth that'll be a really nice thing too because that'll help us okay let's see um Leslie just go back to you even though you just jumped on go back to the beginning I think you can scroll back even though it's live and and catch up so uh because I'm I'm not going to sadly I'm not going to redo everything um because it took me like half an hour to get here okay uh so one person said why is why is the sun different why are we seeing a different Sun we're coming out of something called a grand solar minimum okay and there and I'm sure there's going to be a lot of grand solar minimum folks who were very upset with me because they really expected that the grand solar minimum was going to continue to go down and down down and down to the point where our sun was not going to lose or not going to have any sunspots visible on its face anymore that's not what's happening uh we've had many Grand solar minimums over the course of time and they vary in depth okay some of them are extremely deep and some of them aren't deep at all and and in this case we had one that was that we're coming out of now that wasn't so deep as let's say the M minimum so that the magnetic field of the sun got so weak that sunspots could no longer rise they weren't buoyant enough to rise to the surface of the Sun and become sunspots doesn't mean the solar cycle died the solar Dynamo continued doing what it was doing but it was just Incognito it was underneath the surface so we had no visible um indication of it that's how weak back then in the 1700s that's how weak the um uh the sun's magnetic field got okay now so so if you fast forward that to now since solar cycle 22 essentially we've been kind of on a downward Trend in the solar cycle 22 somebody reminded me was that 1990 uh was the peak around that time and then we continued to go down into solar cycle 23 and then now solar solar cycle 24 which is the one we just got finished with we had a a solar maximum in um 2014 and 2015 and now we're on in essentially the solar maximum phase of solar cycle 25 well it looks like we're Rising again so solar cycle 24 was when we our sun had the weakest magnetic field strength in itself because that the magnetic field strength and its brightness the strength of its storms the amount of activity all of that changes and and you know lessens when we go through these Grand solar minimums and I'm not going to go through the details if you want to know the details as to why that happens um take a look at my oh goodness what series is I think it's sunspots and uh sunspots and telescopes I believe I go through that uh a bit in that in that mini course um I'm trying to remember but uh uh I one one of my many courses goes through it and and talking about how the sun's different hemispheres kind of affect how active it is because sometimes it's the the solar hemispheres the north Hemisphere and the southern hemisphere interact well and sometimes they don't um when they're in agreement then you get really big strong cycles and when they're not in agreement then they fight each other and then the Cycles get weaker uh more complicated but just weaker and in general and and um and I'm trying to be careful because don't talk about Carrington class events the reason why is because it's it's counterintuitive you get a bigger chance for Carrington class events during weaker solar Cycles because a magnetic field is more complex even though it's weaker overall but as we move out of that now and we begin to rise to have stronger magnetic field strength on in the sun you know overall the two hemispheres are acting more in concert we're getting more activity overall that means also not just stronger magnetic field it also means faster solar wind when we get wind it means bigger eruptions when we get them uh so everything overall just kind of ramps up a bit and that's what we're seeing is these solar storms that we've been so used to over the past couple Cycles being pretty weak well now I think we need to air on the side of them being a bit stronger than expected because we are getting stronger you know the sun's maget IC field is getting stronger the sun's solar wind is getting faster uh and we're we're just seeing that all over again so it's that's what I'm talking about why I'm saying this is a fundamentally different sun is that because this happens over time scales of 11 years it's very easy to forget if it's been four solar Cycles or three solar Cycles since the last time you saw the sun do something dramatic it gets very easy to forget because that's 40 plus years right or 35 to 40 years and so that that's a an entire career for a science stist so there probably aren't that many solar uh space weather forecasters who remember those days because they were forecasting during those days right I remember those days because I was a grad student during those days I wasn't even uh you know out in the in the the um professional world yet but I was studying it and I studied those Cycles so I have a um you know a nice knowledge of that but we need to to make sure that our operational crew uh and even our our space weather enthusiasts under understand that this our sun is getting stronger again and and so we can also assuage all the fear that people have about our own Earth's magnetic field our dipole field component flipping because everybody's going to blame this on Earth and it's not Earth's fault it's just the sun is become be rising again and possibly could rise to a grand solar maximum and that means we only have maybe one or two cycles before we could see solar cycle 19 levels again amateur radio operators remember a solar flux of 300 right we're sitting at 182 right now I think imagine a solar flux level of 300 plus okay those are the big Cycles could we see those again yes okay this cycle no next cycle possibly right so we need to to really start thinking about about our sun from a different perspective and that's what the red shirt's for okay so hopefully that answers that question in a long-winded fashion okay uh Skywatch Skywatch time says just think we didn't even have Facebook during the peak of that last cycle you know you that's the thing is you have to think on a much longer time scale not human time scales but the sun's the solar time scales are so much slower so that's become that that's where the Things become problematic is we lose our corporate memory of what the more active Cycles are like and we become very complacent and Cavalier about these things that we really shouldn't yeah Spirit you say it's all it's so all a bit more intense now makes sense great explanation uh that the info and the hemispheres helps my understanding yes uh I teach this in the send program and and Dr Scott McIntosh as well as Bob Leman and the ukar Nar crew those guys are really leading the charge on on what we call hemispheric asymmetry and they predicted this cycle was going to be popping out of the grand solar minimum and they were right um you know they thought it was going to pop out a bit faster than it has and I'm glad that they were wrong in that capacity thank goodness cuz we wouldn't be able to handle a cycle 19 right now there'd be too many radio bursts there'd be too many big solar storms uh Farmers we we just saw with the with the Ganon storm you know back in May what it did to agriculture right what it did to to crops uh the people planting corn and it's been a very wet season as well so these poor guys have been dealing with tons and tons of rain where they can't plant and then they finally get a space where every the weather looks great and then we get this massive G5 that takes out all their GPS and gnss and they can't plant again so they're having issues I've talked to some folks who who are planting soybeans who are in a pretty similar boat um and and this is something that we had no idea was going to to be as big an impact as it as it has been um and that's still unfolding oh good Jerry I I'm good to see you I remember cycle 19 I doubt very few on here were around yet exactly right people weren't really born then or if they were born they were young they were babies and so they don't remember how big those Cycles were and and just how incredibly different our sun was and it's not from a per perspective of oh I feel the sun on my skin it was so much hotter then that isn't it our atmosphere protects us there it's from a magnetic field in a space weather perspective right from a from these storms that that hit us and the radio bursts and things like that that hit us now um and yes there's a good chance that we're going back to that so so we need to be aware of that and and yeah uh I see Scott is awesome yes he is he's a cool dude um anyway so I won't I won't I'll get off my soap box there but that's but again that's where why the red shirt is here it's not for anybody to worry about it what year was cycle 19 what was a solar Max of cycle 19 was that 70 or 80 1980 maybe was it s around the 70s or the 80s I can't remember I'd have to go back and take a look at a I mean I could look let me just just do that for you guys um solar cycle 19 as you can tell I don't have this stuff in my head you know there's every time I have something new in my head it goes it takes something else out what is going on oh maybe I'm maybe I'm the one who's stuck let me try again but see I got that solar cycle 19 if you just um oh yeah look looks like I'm the one who's stuck maybe maybe ssy is just fine I'm not sure why I'm having trouble huh yeah Google's taking too long to respond I don't know what's going on with my with my wireless huh I think my T-Mobile wireless is dying all right anyway that's that's someone else can probably put that in the the chat for you guys uh because I can't um okay 1960s was it that early C cycle 19 I thought it was a 1970s perhaps okay how how much are your classes um well I I do the live YouTube classes as you can see them I have a ton of mini courses that are completely free they're completely available for you right there if you go to my website you can actually see a a um a way to navigate them I actually have like a course curriculum and I walk you through which courses to take because I have the C Series and the M series and the the P series and there's all these different series and you take them in a particular order there because there are prerequisites um and so you can do that and they're very casual long courses but they they can get you started if you want to go to to Millersville University and take take the formal courses I teach you lots of other stuff uh and it's much more rigorous um in a in a in a fun way um and those courses depending upon who you are if you are uh want to take it for personal enrichment not a grade you can you can actually audit the class for a lot less a lot less like a couple hundred bucks to be honest so um I encourage you if you are interested in that kind of thing to come check it out and chat with me about it so okay guys uh let's see I want to make sure let me check patreon to make sure that I have questions in patreon taken care of also for those of you in my patreon family uh those who can get access to the chat rooms I will be in my office hours uh and and on whereby I'll just open up the office hours for everybody today for those who know where my VIP room is you can um talk with me there uh because as soon as I'm done here I will jump into that okay um but uh uh let me check on patreon to see if there's any questions questions from anyone who is not in the YouTube chat let's see I have five okay drift says always great Aurora to be seen in Northern M Michigan and of course it will be cloudy tonight maybe next time yeah drift likely the Aurora is already passed um I will I will take a look at the magnetic field I mean the solar wind one more time here but I think it's probably um it may the best of it may have already gone come and Gone YouTube comments okay um Michael that's funny thank you for your dedication information and the great job you always do thank you I appreciate that Alex so that's it from from patreon and let me just really quick I know I'm off screen here but let me see if I can get okay good I get Noah right now uh I can get Noah on my other screen so yeah we're sitting at a 5.3 right now for KP I'll I'll pull up um HP here in a second and yeah see they're still calling for a G3 I don't know I I wouldn't I wouldn't do a g3 at this point if I go back to to and I'll take off the chat real fast so you guys can we can talk about this one more time luckily my um looks like this data is still updating despite the fact that that I can't get to the main page it's still updating so you can see we're in something right here we're getting because of the low variance of this um this speed see and the and the density is really softened we might be in the Wake now so we're in like you know when I when a a whale if you ever watch whale Watcher you know if you do whale watching and the whale comes up and then it Dives and the the footprint it leaves on the surface of the water is like super light glass I'm wondering if we're seeing a little bit of that right now but we'll see right now that the magnetic field is still staying very very low I just don't expect it to be all that much let me look at AE Index right now I should be able to get that what is going on let me do this let me do a different I've got I've got two two wirelesses so let me see if I can connect all right let's see if we can do this now there we go little time oh yeah we've had some we've had some good time today so this is at high latitude you guys have definitely been getting substorms um anything above 500 for this for this Top Line This is this is my quick and dirty rule of thumb anything above 500 on this Top Line is going to be substorm worthy we've actually been having a geomagnetic storm and our Earth is definitely storming uh it's dropped down quite considerably to just below substorm level but we are still popping substorms here and there and that's probably because of the field is wiggling back and forth so again it's that we're at that we're at that set that point now where we're just brightening and then backing off brightening and then backing off but only at high latitudes people at bid latitudes I doubt you're going to see anything from this you may have to wait until the 30th okay when we get that second storm the neat thing is that our our field and I probably can do this now let me let me dare let me dare do something let me show you I think it was here right before this big pop if okay now I know this looks messy so let me take let me take this stuff off this is the last couple days okay notice just the last couple days this isn't even today this is before the big storm hit okay starting what what was this this is the 27th okay 27th through early on the 28th we've been in a solar storm okay this is solar storm magnetic field okay okay it's not been moving very fast which is why I haven't talked about it it's been very mild but it's been causing some stuff for high latitudes uh we've had some Southward magnetic field up to about 10 nanat Tesla okay so it's not small this is a decent structure likely it was one of these filaments that came off that we just you know was a wispy thing or we didn't really see it so it's been giving us some lowlevel storming over the past 2448 hours which is if you go to and I might be able to load it up now you go to whoopsie yeah I can load it up now uh which if you take a look at the and I'm just I'll just keep it well um no you know what I'll do this got a daily plots here if you if actually I can probably go to 10day let me do 10day plots because that'll be better than daily yeah so if you look at this this is KP over the last from from gfz and so here's the big storm right hitting over the last you know 15 hours or so since the beginning of the 28th but look at all this stuff okay we were quiet right and well actually this was actually part of the storm too um the the set of storms that we've been getting we've been getting little popups here and there just little little things and over the last especially the last 24 to 48 hours I've been going hm I need to put out an indicator because this is these are definitely little mini storms that are hitting us but the speed was just so low this is the only reason why we didn't pop up to storm level we had the magnetic field strength so again even these little mini storms are strong enough they're just in this case not moving very quickly they're just because they're just lifting off gently so this is just telling us that you know we're getting these strong much stronger Fields than we're than we used to see and and uh and so that also when you have the preconditioning of of getting these stronger Fields Earth is already a little bit rattled okay so so when this storm actually did hit it popped us to a G4 like that and it was like well if the everything had been quiet prior to that would we have popped to a G4 n maybe not so you know some of that has to do with the fact that we've been preconditioned and that also gives me pause when I think back to the five days and when we have this ex this next storm coming coming what's that going to bring us you know is that going to bring us um a bigger storm a bigger impact and a bigger you know response from Earth than we would get if everything were quiet prior to and I think so and so that's why when I did my five-day outlooks why I I said what I said um where let me go back to and I'll go back to high latitudes let me switch this so you can see what I mean um right here so when I talk about my my 5day outlooks for especially for high latitudes I'm still expecting minor storm conditions uh with even maybe a 20% chance of a major storm because of the fact that that we're already preconditioned we're already ready to storm so we could be seeing seeing more storming than we would normally get even from a very weak thing especially at high latitudes so those of you at high latitudes keep your eye on the AE index because that's going to be your tell okay for aora or for Rural propagation or or whatever else you you uh strike your fancy okay so any other questions guys yay yeah woohoo she got it back I know I had to switch switch my Wi-Fi but I got it back so okay um Philip says this is the first time in more than a year I've had a whole day for playing radio without interruption and mother mother nature had other plans well switch to lower frequencies uh over the next day or so uh that that should help you write out the storm the solar storms because solar storms have a tendency to cause cause lower frequencies to do better right and obviously nighttime propagation you know you can have fun with six meters and 10 meters it'll be un unruly you know it might be a bit kind of crazy but you might get some very surprising DX so so there are some fun things about storms like this um James is saying uh does it mean higher temperature uh no it's not going to mean higher temperature it's not going to affect the terrestrial weather uh not not not that sense so it's just Aurora just Aurora okay um and let's see yeah how that how's it gonna let's see one of mine says Earth's being rattled like she is how is that going to take a big X well remember x-class anything that's x-class or mclass those are flares those are totally different uh they're not solar flares and solar storms are totally different things and earth looks at them and interacts with them differently solar storms are the Earth interacts with them mainly through the magnetic Shield of Earth solar flares it's mainly through the upper atmosphere and it's also radio bursts when the sun is screaming so that only affects even the day side whereas solar storms it affects mainly the night side so it's not even the same side of Earth that gets affected so don't worry so much about that and if we get a big right now we're not going to get a big x-class flare there's nothing indicating that we're anywhere close to to none of the active regions on the Sun have any indication that they're going to give xcl flares right now um so I I wouldn't worry about it like I said the Ganon region is is pretty much kaput at this point it's it's just broken up into lots of little small regions that are probably going to continue to recede and disappear so unless we see another big emerging active region and we haven't seen any even the little ones I showed you on the sun's Far Side are not that that large um unless we see something change here over the next week the chances for x-class flares will stay very very low and therefore also chances for very energetic solar storms are will stay really low so you don't have to worry about it okay okay um good so thank you let's see uh it's that preconditioning as this Ganon region comes around the East Li that puts me on alert so to speak yeah I I hear you but again Ganon region is that's kind of gone so I don't think we're going to be seeing anything right now and there's not been a lot of activation near Center disk right now we haven't seen a lot of like evidence of maybe rosby waves that that cause these active regions to really like flare up all of a sudden as they pass certain longitudes we're not seeing any of that right now on the you know in in the earth's strike zone so again I think it's going to be reasonably um quiet unless we have some more of these filament eruptions right and those are the things that I think as forecasters need to really pay attention to and and and and recognize that they're stronger their the magnetic field strengths are stronger than than we are used to them being and and maybe maybe we need to pay more attention to that or give us give ourselves a little bit more space when we do our our projected extremes right saying okay well we're going to say that you know in case it's small we're going to have what we expect but then what our chances of it could be we may need to kind of hearken back to the earlier cycles and give us a bit more of a spread because the Cycle's changing you know and we have to change with it so okay guys uh looks like I've answered most of the questions everybody's just kind of chatting I I love I love the fact that you guys are chatting amongst yourselves and answering each other's questions I think that's fantastic okay guys I am going to say goodbye hopefully this was a good uh um briefing for you and again for those in the know come see me in my office hours I will be getting on here shortly okay all right till then and thanks Mike and Jerry for jumping in so quickly okay