PrizePicks, Underdog & FanDuel MLB Player Props & Bets for Thursday 8/29 | OS Live

and we are live welcome to OB shoer live everybody Thursday August 29th here to break down everything we can find sports books and pick them sites yesterday was not our day we got a ton of value on the home run plays that we put in and even some of the plays across total bases and singles and stolen base boy we couldn't hit [ __ ] yesterday missed on all the home runs just frust rating any day you're going to come up empty on the homers it's going to be pretty tough you kind of need one to offset the rest of them two to make you feel really good we didn't have it but we're here now for odd Shopper live I'm Josh Angelman by the way at Josh Angelman on anything you want to find me on essentially I cornered the market on my name pretty early so hit that like button subscribe to the channel on YouTube if that's where you're watching or follow me on Twitter if that's where you're watching I've got my plays from the morning already lined up so we're going to hit on those first then we'll get into the pickham sites and we'll find out what we have on odd Shopper we started off the day with our home run place and I was able to lock in JJ blay at plus 430 to Homer it's at 400 right now and it got as low the moment I put it in it moved to 370 I even think think it went a little bit lower than that it's now rebounded to 400 but either way I'm in at 430 um got that one in at 9:01 a and drop that one into my Discord which you can subscribe to by going to odd shopper.com Andrew Ben and tendy we locked in at 800 it is now down to plus 750 so again we locked in a really good line and by all accounts if it holds like this we're going to be very happy that we did it Jackson Merill just before we went live I'm talking two seconds the moment I clicked the button Jackson Marill actually jumped up to plus 700 it would be fun to lock that in right now but you guys can do that so I still like the Jackson maril line at plus uh plus 700 I think it's crazy that exists so if you can grab that one do it I also hit Jacob Wilson at plus 870 and just based on the way the bade line moved I'm going to assume the Jacob Wilson line has moved as well but let's take a quick peek at it first Wilson no still sitting at 870 so I like that Jacob Wilson line as well if you guys want to grab it at 870 the only reason I didn't put it in with this set is just because to include Jacob Wilson with JJ blade is going to be a problem I would happily swap those guys out have a bigger one if I needed to but for right now it still looks good to me so I hit four home run plays for today we have less games than normal uh what's the actual count we have see yeah so we have 11 games so eight teams are off today uh a lot of this day happens you know early we've got a one o00 start a couple two o' starts two 3:00 starts and then the night is awful 5 640 710 810 and 1010 so we're a lot more focused on the early for today which is fine by me I'm excited for it um let's look at the rest of the bets yeah this did not go well yesterday we multiple swings and misses across everything that we did for the total bases and uh singles props and what else did I hit yesterday stolen singles total bases and stolen bases there we go so yesterday on the stolen base side revas didn't play Otani got a steel which is really annoying at minus 280 that's really when it starts to hurt you kind of need to get those Fitzgerald didn't get one but Quan didn't get one Castro didn't get one these are situations where like it's either going to look really really bad or you get one of those days where someone gets a steal and you hit the two Nos and those days pay out massively so we missed pretty bad on stolen bases and then for total bases Mel Garcia didn't play Perkins got a base triolo got a base Logan hoppy held on and Lisa RZ got it pretty early so we are at least able to squeeze out a little bit more but we would have needed a third win to really make this one feel better and we did not get that so uh yesterday stunk we just kind of missed on everything we did and I also uh had Royce Lewis to Homer yesterday which I would have liked but that ended up not mattering either really love the line that I got so for today Pomo to get a stolen base at plus 850 Bryce Turing actually can I make this a little bit easier to see sure can Pomo to get a steal Whit marfield to get a steal at plus 425 Altuve to get a steal at plus 750 and then it's Lawrence Butler and Bryce tering to not get a steal this is where I had the most value of anything on the stolen base prop market for this morning the goal is to hit at least three of these preferably the steals themselves since that will pay out a lot better but we're looking for at least three and we're hoping that we have two gimmies that's the intention if that doesn't work out that way oh well we also hit Jacob Wilson to single Brandon Marsh to single Jake Bowers to single yaner Diaz to not single Jonah Heim to not single I hit all of those individually and then I also hit them in a very light round Robins but I really like those singles lines I think there's a lot of value there and I think we see some of those lines move as we normally do and then finally total bases I didn't have a lot here so we were only able to hit three total baselines Lars Nar did get on Pomo over one and a half and then Michael Massie over one and a half I round robing those as well but didn't have a lot on the total base streets so that's everything that I locked in this morning you guys can see all of that in my Marketplace if you browse to odd shopper.com you want to discover some insiders right here at the bottom you find me you click on me and immediately you get all of the free plays that I listed for today which is everything that I just went over now a lot of these plays are going to become premium plays starting on Monday but I will always hit out some free stuff the Home Run round robin to start the day will always stay on that side because I want everybody to chase that one with me you guys can see it here the moment I place those bets they get listed here you see everything that I hit I give you my unit sizing for it as well if you want to sign up and get my Marketplace you can do that via odd shopper.com you also want to sign up for odd Shopper that's going to be what we're looking at for the rest of this show I can show you guys that quite quickly let's go into an incognito tab that way I'm not logged in we'll go to odd Shopper go to the homepage now just hitting our landing page this will explain everything we have I highly recommend that you take a lap through everything and learn the product a little bit 199 for a week 59.95 for a month you could even get some offers to knock that down a little bit if you've never signed up at certain Sports books it's all right here for you guys all laid out with exactly what you want now we're going to look at the tool itself so uh that's the wrong tab I am not in the state of Virginia but let's look at the market and find out if we have anything available and we do we have we've got a couple lines out here that look okay Kade Povich under three and a half strikeouts plus 126 sitting at FanDuel right now now I'm curious do I have any value on that line from this morning I didn't look at pitcher strikeout props but it feels like I should do that all right for poic all right I have I have value on this as well so we have this at 4.6% EV I have it at 3.7 so it seems to me that we're in the same ballpark for this bet and I'm just going to grab it right now while it exists this is the perks of odd Shopper so it's Cade Povich under three and a half strikeouts at plus 126 I have this at basically like. 35 units it's going to be 35 bucks for me so let's hit it Kade poic pitcher props under 126 let's get rid of Blade and Merill and Ben and tendy actually I didn't need to do that so Kate Povich bet in no reason not to get that one I think it has positive value odd Shopper thinks it has positive value I will bet that 126 goes away before the end of this show I'm gonna I'm gonna click it and leave it in to see if it does so I'm gonna hit the head to Baltimore hit this line just going to leave it hang out here my guess that line is about to move now we also have a couple other things hanging out here we have Matteo arnaldi hanging out first set money line plus 110 on DraftKings we see these sort of live lines pop up from a from a tennis P perspective on this show kind of regularly this is not something I'm going to look at right now because I would want to actually uh pay a closer attention to this but I have had success in hitting these live DraftKings tennis bets they seem to be slow to the draw by the way I don't know if you guys are seeing the number one Home Run play that's on the screen right now seven odd shoper rating 15% EV what's that oh it's Jackson Merill well I'll be damned it's almost like I already bet that one two hours ago we're showing it 15% EV just for you guys so that I could talk about it I have the Jackson Merl play me find it here what do I have it at right now so I have it at 11.4% we got it at 15 moral of the story two independent sources are telling you that that Jackson Marill line looks good even that make I'm still shocked that it went up to 700 but I can confidently say I mean if you want to know how ridiculous life is for that line right now it's 700 at FanDuel ready it's 500 at Bed MGM it's 450 at DraftKings 700 is ridiculous compared to the rest of this Market it's just not going to be able to stay out there long enough people are going to hit that 700 because it's completely different than the rest of the market I locked it in early I'd like to lock it in now because I got it at 680 when I still think it had exceptional value so would we so right away you're seeing it right there for Jackson Merill did they move it did that Jackson Marl line move no it couldn't have moved that fast I mean like it could have no still sitting at 700 go get it guys go get it we have those tennis plays we got the Cade Povich play there a couple other threes sitting here I think would be very reasonable to get to Julian agar under four and a half strikeouts is sitting at a three odd Chopper rating Tovar under .5 RBI is sitting at a three odd Shopper rating those are perfectly reasonable plays one at Bed MGM one at DraftKings I like it I like it but I know you guys want to see the pick them site stuff uh prize picks didn't work out for us which is really funny so I still had the tab open after I put our card in from yesterday and so mayber went over Sykes went under Collier actually we hit Kelsey Mitchell we ended ended up going over so this card is dead already but I had the screen up and it updates the lines that are available every single one of them was a positive move to us like we went more than four and a half rebounds on syes I know it moved to five I'm I'm pretty confident the mabery line dropped I'm pretty confident the Collier and Mitchell line both moved like we were able to get the correct side of all of these plays it just didn't work out for us so that one is dead from yesterday doesn't matter what happens in that college football game it's already off the board when I pulled this up before we started there was an overwhelming amount of value on prize picks for EPL plays on Saturday and that's still there we are about to build out an exceptional prize pick set this one's going to be massive in particular I hate this first play but I don't hate it because I don't like the bet I hate it because I don't want to cheer for it Billy Gilmore under .5 shots for Brighton on Saturday against Arsenal I hope Billy Gilmore has 200 shots on Saturday and Arsenal loses by 200 I hate them I want them to lose every time they step on the pitch but unfortunately we have 14% value on Billy Gilmore I gotta take that [ __ ] so uh I hope the goal scorers for Brighton are everybody but Billy Gilmore that would be helpful so the Damen Martinez line is still hanging out there we're going to grab that so right away we've got two even just those two plays have EV as a power play craziness so we've got two we can lock we can't go to Matt's verer because it's in the Brighton game I don't want to deal with that the knockdown of value we can get dku under two and a half shots now as a flex play we're dead in the water as a power play we're dead in the water so we know that we need at least two more we can't go to De bruyne also on Manchester City I don't know who this guy is D Hayden running back for Colorado we're gonna grab that so even at four four plays on prize picks we're getting 1% EV now we talk about this every day the the Fourplay range sucks the the odds on this are Dreadful but these plays are so good in particular Billy Gilmore that I can save it you go power play here and you're getting 6% you just have to go four and0 now we're going to look for a six pick Flex card because I know we're going to have massive value we're going to grab Jackson Merrill under one and a half total bases obviously we're cheering for the home run here but that line is incorrect and we want to lock it down five pick Flex card at 25% EV 25 you're crazy if you don't want to take this you could also add Riley green you go up to 31 or you think about adding Riley green you do some combinations where it's not dku it's de bruyne you do some combin well you don't want to take Billy Gilmore out but you can make a bunch of five leg cards with Gilmore Martinez doku Hayden Merill de bruyne we have a couple other pieces here with more than enough value that you could hit step down five leg plays but for now we are locking this one in because that kind of expected value would be silly to pass on so let's get Billy Gilmore I was looking for eppl all right so Billy Gilmore to not get a shot dku under two and a half now I hate Manchester United as much as I hate Arsenal so I'm certainly cheering for dku to not get shots and then we're going to head to the college football streets so a lot of this is going to settle up on Saturday we get Martinez less than four 74 and a half we get Hayden I think it's 40 and a half yeah and then finally we're going to take Jackson Merill total bases this is the saving great if we don't win the Home Run play we better get this one I mean that five playay card again for those in the back 25% expected EV based on this line right now you want to power play it uh value doesn't show up 25 now we're only goingon to go five and0 one out of every 20 times I can handle that because this payout is aw awesome we're in 50 for 500 let me get you guys this card as well I'll drop that in chat Merill down to 630 oh that's so exciting to see all right prize picks link is getting dropped in chat if you guys want it down to 6:30 oh I love it I love it it oh God it's so good to see we just had the conversation starting at the beginning of the show it shows up we get it at 6 it's down 50 points since I got it it was 700 when we started the show they know guys they know they tune in to odd Shopper live they find out where the holes are all I could do is hope that you guys follow me along so you can catch them too let's see what else we have on the pickham streets prize fix is loaded so if you're on a if you play prize picks that should be the ultimate reason to sign up for odd Shopper I'm going to take a sip of my coffee it's all hinging upon Billy Gilmore guys oh we've got a got a big one for mafa on Underdog I don't remember anything that we did on Underdog almost I'm hoping we got one of those WNBA props right that still alive no NOP that didn't go our way that didn't go our way we got Collier we lost ma spaghetti man got seven K so this one's dead in the water as well but the mafa line the mafa line is still out there not only that it's up to 72 and a half so let's see what we can squeeze out of Underdog this morning let's get mafa play it appears we're going to Jackson Merill that gets us two not what we're looking for does Jeremiah Love save us because of how good the mafa play is sure does now flexed you're dead you got to go three and 0 here mafa Merill Jeremiah Love 8% EV 17% win rate got to do it got to do it so let's grab the mafa play once again we're going to go lower than 72 and a half yards we're going to grab Jeremiah love that's going to be 57 and a half rushing yards and now we can grab our boy Jackson Merill who we would really prefer a homer but unfortunately we're also going to cheer for him to go under one and a half total bases we hit all three again 8% EV now we need all three Flex does not have value here I want you guys to understand this as a power play you're good but you got to go three and 0 you try to flex this and you're down to -7% Roi you would need to add one more play to get up to positive seven I'm going to try and just strike it big and get three 40 to win 240 based on that value and there's the underdog link so do we have anything else any other sites we can grab any other home runs you guys want me to take a peek at I'm happy to pull up some data and find out if we can squeeze another little bit of value out of somebody all right pick them pick them pick them anybody else I mean it's it's a lot of prize picks prize picks is dominating the equation we're gonna have one for better however better looks like they have enough that we can grab three or four plays here all right so Josh Williams rushing David Peterson strikeouts two plays gets us to -4 this one's going to be the one that separates us we're going to Ellie under two and a half hits runs RB we're at1 you ready number four should get us there we all know it it's Jackson Merill oh we're at negative one we need five we need five it's got to be Jeremiah Love That Gets us to 11 all right so we've got the five leg play on better right now I'm pulling it up on the phone since there's no website and we're going to grab this one so it's going to be David Peterson of the Mets that's going to be less than four and a half K we're going to get Ellie La Cruz hits runs rbi's less than two and a half we're going to our boy Jackson Marill what a roller coaster ride for Jackson Marill today we definitely want the Home Run that's way cooler especially one of those other guys homers all right less than one and a half total bases on Merill now we'll hop to college football we need LSU LSU USC Josh Williams less than 56 and a half rushing yards and just as just so everybody knows I got the popup while I was doing this that the David Peterson line is no longer available it just took it away if I go to the Mets right now to find David Peterson all he has is a multiplier boost to more than five and a half strikeouts so that got yanked while we were doing it if I pull Peterson and add back in Taylor Ward we're still at %. so I'm going to grab Taylor Ward that's a shame we lost a little bit of value there but there's nothing we could have done about it Taylor Wood Taylor Ward to not score a run got it now I can get Jeremiah Love so let's find Notre Dame always fun to cheer against Notre Dame no one gives a [ __ ] about Notre Dame there's no team you want to cheer for less than Notre Dame so this one feels great Jeremiah Love Under 58 and a half rushing yards that's 9% expected EV for us five pick card and we're locked and loaded I'm going to save this link to myself so I could drop it in chat boom boom and then I think we're dead not like bad dead just you know dead like I don't know if we have any other plays to look at all right let me grab that better line quickly and when I say better line I mean better card that is the words that I was trying to find there we go all right we've got home run plays singles props total base props uh stolen base props we hit a prize pick card an underdog card and a better card I'm not sure we could do more in 27 minutes I don't think it gets any better than that do you what more could we get I'm going to hit the EV bets one last time to see if we're missing anything anything else new popped up not the case Kade poic still sitting out there keep an eye on that line though I promise 126 isn't sticking around so we're good on the EV side for sports books Billy Gilmore Sting still sitting out there on prize picks get it get it get it so is mafa we hit it all folks that means we close out the week tomorrow again links in the description if you want to sign up for odd Shopper I highly recommend it if you're betting on sports or playing on the pickham sites this is a tool that will unequivocally help you out we've got some pickham site EV historical data that's going to get shared pretty soon so I'm excited to show that to you guys I think you'll be very happy to see it but as I look at everything now we're on to Friday sign up for odd Shopper sign up for my Marketplace so you guys can get in Discord and get all of these lines that I'm hitting in the morning that are moving it's harder to get them later in the day when they've already moved I can get you them before they move so do that sign up for the marketplace again links are in the description thank you guys for being here another odd Shopper live in the books see you guys tomorrow at noon shouldn't be an early day so see you guys at 12 o'clock [Music]