PrizePicks, Underdog & FanDuel NFL & MLB Player Props & Bets for Wednesday 9/4 | OS Live

here we go folks we are live odd Shopper live Wednesday September 4th I am Josh Angelman and I'm here to do better than I did yesterday we're going to break down whatever bets we can find we're going to hit the pick them sites as well I need you guys to hit the like button the moment you get in the door subscribe to the channel hit the notification Bell follow me on Twitter Josh englman we got a lot to break down weird day value is I don't know having trouble wrapping my head around it today everything kind of feels weird maybe just maybe it's because we got bludgeoned yesterday I would say that yesterday which is really fitting for it being the second day of my Marketplace I would say that yesterday is the worst day I've ever had in sports betting and that this goes back like you know trackable stuff has only existed for a year for North Carolina um I've dipped my toes in these Waters since I was 16 years old I have never gotten steamrolled like I did yesterday we'll start with the good all right so this is my picket page and we crushed closing line value chaparo yesterday we bet it at 800 it closed at 575 didn't we win we got Jeff mcneel at plus 900 it closed at plus 750 yeah that didn't hit Ryan Jeffers closed at 500 we got it at 600 James Wood got it at 800 closed at 700 he strikeouts from minus 148 up to minus 165 Mickey moniac 520 to 470 Aaron judge plus 190 to plus 188 we'll take what we can get Pat Corbin positive ree Hoskins positive Kade poic positive we didn't have a single negative closing line value play Yesterday now this is not the Beall end all but we're definitely getting the best lines we can um but we also went down seven and a half units we went 117 and one yesterday we hit nothing just an absolute steamrolling I thought for a brief moment that we got this reys Hoskins Homer I got the alert however overturned so we missed every single Home Run play that we had available to us yesterday and we never took a line that got worse it's brutal guys it is downright brutal so let's fix it today let's get off to a better start let's get some dubs Eckler it certainly would have man it certainly would have look I liked the play I just didn't like the line turns out didn't matter should have bet him to Homer three times we could have done better there so let's take a look at the pickham side first then we'll work our way back to some home run plays if we can but good news is no matter what we do today it can't get worse we can't be worse than yesterday so we do have a couple prize picks options for ourselves today let's see what we can get built out on PP so if we take this one for tomorrow Sabrina under one or under five and a half boards Bobby Whit under two and a half hits runs RB Melissa Smith tonight for rebounds we're at negative 17 Yoshida gets us to negative 11 this is where it jumps Alia Boston tonight under 14 and a half points this is what takes us positive 8% EV on this five leer is there anything we can grab on prize picks that save us a little bit is not the most value in the world we are going to add Kirby strikeouts line as well that gets us to 11% so we have an 11% Roi or 11% EV um option here for prize picks and I am going to take this for right now so let's grab the MLB pieces first of which is going to be Bobby wit and then we'll grab Yoshida and then we're going to get Kirby strikeouts then we'll head to the WNBA streets we'll get Sabrina for tomorrow that is rebounds grab Nelissa Smith rebounds as well as as will as well and then finally Boston under 14 and a half points so we've got a six- leg card now this does not hit frequently 2% win rate is one out of every 50 days however 11% expected Roi or expected EV we'll lock that in all day every day so when we go six and six six for six we hit 1250 on this bad boy uh let me share this link for you guys as well I know Kevin eka is gonna show up and wonder where it is so he'll get it the moment he shows up so we've got a prize pick card in where else do we have the value on the pick them sites and again if you guys want to do this you got to sign up for odd Shopper link is in the description all of these Market based tools are available to you on the pick side and the sports betting side and it's here at a moment's notice you could Auto refresh it so this will continually just update with new plays you could hit it all day every day every minute of the hour if you want to so we have two really big sleeper plays in particular Derrick Henry's rushing yards and that will go off tomorrow maybe we take a peak there we have some DraftKings pick six value out there if we want to hit it Ryan Jeffers and Lamar Jackson just out of curiosity what does the pick six Optimizer look like if we go Lamar [Music] Jackson so this is this would be just for tomorrow but we could do Lamar Jackson Justin Watson Derk Henry me not loving it not loving it let's check the sleeper or let's check Underdog actually quickly since we're here uh well if you're interested in playing Underdog at this moment right now you can't do it there's not a single card that you can build that I think is worth it one% EV on the top five plays that we have that's just not going to get it done this is this is pretty bleak right here you can steal you can't even steal any value anywhere so it's not an underdog day now sleeper might be telling us a different story you grab that Derrik Henry play and if you want to root against Caitlyn Clark that's a 10% EV option kep Ana in the house I knew it was coming brother good to have you here always good to have you here all right while I'm on here and I actually for the first time in ages have my wallet next to me so pix is available right in North Carolina good confirm I've been so bad about this because every time we do this show I see a sleeper card and then I remember that I haven't entered my address or my ID and like fully registered my account now I should not be doing this while we're live on this show but sometimes things happen and you need to get it done so I'm in the process of taking a picture of my driver's license you guys don't need to see that there's the front yes and continue we'll flip it around because I want to make a deposit here on sleeper for today oh my god oh got it I could not get I could not stop shaking to take the back picture got to take a picture of this gorgeous mug of mine let's do that hold on there we go perfect yes and confirm well they're going to find out that that's me and now whenever this is finished we're going to actually be able to build out this sleeper card so the first two plays on sleeper are good but we don't want to stop there Aaron Jones under rushing yards is also highly EV you add that third play and we're up to 12% identity has [Music] been locked and loaded so I'm going to make a deposit and we're going to build out sleeper now moving forward we could hit sleeper every morning I apologize for being so lazy about this over the past three weeks or so but I never really played there until I started this show yeah Obie pick six is such a different um product now much more so negatively why is this not working the way that I wanted to I want to keep moving here I'm ruining this show for everybody let's try this again processing processing processing deposit successful all right so let's get this sleeper play in here now because we don't want to miss it and they also have a uh free Square on George Kirby today so we'll work that in as well but we're going to take Derrik Henry and we're going to grab Derk Henry less than 67 and a half rushing yards we're gonna grab Caitlyn Clark but first i'm gonna grab Aaron Jones that's going to be less than 56 and a half rushing yards and then we can grab Caitlyn clarkk less than 22 and a half points that entry is a 6 and 12x payout now we could Flex it but I have no interest in that we're going to drop a 50 Burger based on that EV if all three hit we're at 327 if you take it Flex it's it's only 2.9x so we're going the full bore now this only wins 177% of the time so we got to think about that for a second what is the proper bet size so 177% 100 divided X = .17 so it's 100 divided .17 so that's going to be 588 with a 12% Edge at quarter Kelly we're looking at 50 so I nailed that bet size and son of a [ __ ] we missed it they moved the Derk Henry line the moment I was going to put this in it is now down to 53 so we just lost this because I took an extra 10 seconds to place it oh my God is that a pain in the ass they just discounted this derck Henry line from 67 and a half down to 53 and now I can only put 10 Bones on it if I take Derrick Henry out we're at 3% EV so I'm Gonna Knock that down to the two picks we're gonna take Derk Henry out that is really death and we're going to drop 25 on the two-p pick card of Kon Clark and Aaron Jones 3.3x entry I am very unhappy so Aaron Jones and Caitlyn Clark and then I'm gonna take that same card I'm GNA take that Aaron Jones play again less than 56 and a half I'm going to take that Caitlyn Clark play again less than 22 and a half and I'm going to add in yeah they just put that Derrick Henry on sale they probably did it at 12:15 which sucks I'm GNA add oh we lost out on the that free square that was that was there when I signed on so we have momes free Square over 19 and a half completions I'm going to add that now we can only do oh I can't take it because no why why can't I to add the Aaron Jones play too we're gonna add those two with momes add the Aaron Jones play so it's Jones less than it's Caitlyn Clark less than and then we're GNA take the free Square for momes we can only do 10 bucks on it but we're getting 5.8x our money and we already know that this two- leer is 3% EV so adding this I don't know discounted play for momes is probably taking us up in and around that 10% EV Mark maybe even higher so we've locked in sleeper uh John there are no Underdog slips available right now I can show you quickly again but we just hit on it the best that we can get on Underdog right now is 1% EV 3% if you Flex it that's not something that I'm really trying to hunt down now we do have two four odd Shopper rating plays available at sports books Xavier worthy receptions and it's an over so it's something to cheer for and you can get that at Caesars right now it's at plus 129 we have the true line at plus 1119 it's only been around for 16 15 minutes so if you are at Caesars grab that value otherwise you can get minus 300 on Aaron judge to not Homer on Fanatics and uh that actually has some value I don't think most people want to get that though for obvious reasons when it comes to Value though we're kind of Tapped Out for what's available right now which means I need homers who do you guys like to Homer today now I have some home run plays in already if I'm being perfectly honest I hate the value available it appears that the value that's available particularly on FanDuel today is pretty bleak so maybe we have to look to DraftKings if possible what do you guys like for homers let's do some research I'll get FanDuel loaded up just in case first guy that I would want to look at like Tristan casus I can't take it at FanDuel because it's 825 on MGM I can't take Lars Nar because he's 150 points lower on the other on FanDuel compared to other sites Corbin Carrol plus 900 that's the first one I want to look at all right Freeman judge bets Freeman again Quan Ellie L Cruz lots to look at so let's break it down I'm going to start with this Corbin Carol play though first bird song on the hill Corbin Carrol 174x ISO against righties way lower than his true ISO but still 174 is good assuming he hits in the leadoff spot helpful now bird song gives up way more power in his brief run in the majors against righties in comparison to lefties not that I'm surprised by based on the pitch mix you know he's throwing 25% of his pitches or change UPS to lefties uh and it seems to be working but with Corbin Carroll being at 900 it's 779 at Pinnacle it's plus 750 at 365 and plus 800 at B MGM at the very least we're getting a good line so I'm going to use Corbin Carol to start that'll juice up the two and three leg parlays too and now we can take a look at everybody else so I'm going to start with Freddy Freeman since he got mentioned twice I have very negative value on Freeman at plus 400 it is the best available line if we look at Freeman today Griffin canning on the hill gives up power against lefties Freeman crushes righties even with that slight negative I'm willing to take Freddy Freeman so we're all on the same page there I'll take the slight negative so that hits Freeman Merill cronenworth moniac auna chrio Tyler O'Neal AR moniac again all right so that's two moncs let's take a look at at moniac again we bet him yesterday and that didn't get us anywhere Bobby Miller on the hill moniac 203x ISO against righties across 600 plate appearances love it Bobby Miller this year in 400 pitches has given up a ton of everything if you add in last year it's still not great but he becomes a more average guy at the very least it's trending our Direction I like moniac I hope I have a little bit of value I do not 480 looks awful uh I got the true line at like 700 I can't take moniac even though I like it on paper judge and Bets I can't imagine we're getting to I'm guessing those lines are too thin honestly the value on Judge isn't bad you can get plus 260 at bet 365 I would probably put like a unit and a half on that today but it's 210 on FanDuel can't grab that 300 on B MGM for Aaron judge right now go get it immediately uh mookie bets -12 see this again FanDuel has smartened up their home run odds I guess they've been watching me plus 360 for mookie bets on FanDuel right now 425 on BET MGM I just can't can't take that line [Music] um I do have value on Stephen Quan but I think he's a bug in my system let's look at Ellie all right Ellie's close he's plus 400 Eric Getty on the hill though so Ellie from the left side 208 x ISO across two years 229 this year hitting from the left side uh arag Getti 15 5x ISO this year I don't love this but I don't hate the 400 line we'll put a pin in that one we could look at Merill now that Line's way too long Cronin worth yeah that's going to be a no as well Ozuna is due for a homer plus 310 okay we could look at this one Bradley block on the hill I mean not anybody you're worried about 312 X ISO against Ry 4 ozuno over the past two years even if you just look at this year it's 20 nope that's not him 333 yeah I'll take Ozuna at 310 that's the best line available it's a little negative but I like it for our round robin so let's get Ozuna and I need to hit Carol single at God something really Preposterous yeah so we're gonna hit 50 on Corbin Carol that's a big one I don't have as much Edge on Freddy Freeman and Ozuna so those are going to be a little bit more limited so let's get those lines in first done and now we get hit the round robin so that's Corbin Carol at plus 900 Freddy Freeman at plus 400 and Marcelo Zuna at plus 310 of all three of those guys Homer we're looking at $4,100 uh JJ you said Bowers I think I already got it or was that yesterday now I already got Bowers at plus 870 and spoiler alert Jake Bowers is still plus 870 so you can still get it but JJ I'm already with you on Bowers so we're good uh let me look at cherio so if you can get cherio at bet 365 or bet MGM at 750 I like it it's 630 on fandel I don't like it uh I love Tyler O'Neal everywhere at 5 20 have I bet that yet uh no all right I am going to bet Tyler O'Neal right now SAA Tyler O'Neal oh come on 520 it's 500 bet 365 it's 525 at bet MGM 520 on FanDuel so we can drop pretty decent Chunk on Tyler O'Neal wanted to grab that one earlier so we got Ozuna Bowers yeah Eckler quano probably Homer since I'm not taking it but I have value on him basically every day and he's sort of in the Pete Alonzo mold for me where when I bet him he doesn't Homer when I don't bet him he does Homer Alonzo homered yesterday obviously I didn't bet it I just have some guys that are like clear guys that screw me can you bet O'Neal K maybe I'm guessing I have value on it uh I do but I like the under at least on DraftKings does Tyler O'Neal have a strikeouts prop on FanDuel I don't see it now DraftKings has it at minus 110 under one and a half I actually like that side more than I like anything else do we have anything new on odd Shopper right now now that we have the round robin it we do not nothing more we don't have anything north of a one odd Shopper rating right now crazy for a 15 gamer do we have anything new in the pick them set all right so that Derrick Henry line is still there but it's because they moved it it's it's stuck in it being a a bonus play right now same prize pick stuff same DraftKings pick six stuff I'm gonna take a quick look to see if we have any interesting promos today fan I assume all everything for FanDuel is football so that's Thursday night no sweat token we're going to use that tomorrow same game profit boost on a thre legger for tomorrow we're going to use that as well I won't hit Futures we can get a 15% profit boost on an MLB single game same game parlay that's kind of interesting 15% profit boost on the MLB side can we squeeze anything out of that right now so let's look at MLB doesn't look likely so if we get Vlad total bases because the early game we could take it at least take a little bit of a look at it um oh this is on B MGM I need FanDuel all right so FanDuel today MLB all right let's work with kider mono that's Detroit and San Diego Cincy Houston Nick Martinez and then Gordon to Homer if we take out kider Montero add yordon to Homer we would be taking arti under strikeouts that gets us to plus 1100 2% EV let's look at this then CU that 15% profit boost is going to get us there so if we go that's Martinez strikeouts under arag Getti strikeouts under and then y on to Homer at 215 so that's 991 do we get up and over it where why is that promo not there did I read that wrong did this go away did I read that wrong was that not a three- game same game parlay for MLB it's not showing up anywhere and now it's not in the promo section if you guys were watching and you saw that am I blind because that's just weird no it's FanDuel I I browsed it on FanDuel take a look at something here that's really all right boost Builders three plus leg MLB parlay wait what does that say all right now it's there three plus leg MLB parlay so is it just not a same game parlay it's just parlay that's fine too so now we don't have to do a same game parlay we can just get good lines so let's get ker Montero let's get Nick Martinez and then let's add Albert Suarez Baltimore Chicago Detroit San Diego Cincy Houston three gets you 611 that so we have value here apparently it's not a same game parlay so I read it wrong and that's why it disappeared so let's get Montero because this is the type of stuff that we need to do every single day so we take the Montero play Martinez and Suarez it's all betting against strikeout pitchers well not strikeout pitchers as the case may be okay so now we can bump that from 611 to 703 so at 703 we can put up to 100 on it all right still just 1.8% expected Roi not our now we have Edge on it actually so technically I should have calculated that slightly differently but that's still pretty Limited however we can still hit it a little bit can we add a fourth leg actually so that's FanDuel today Montero Martinez Suarez we could add a WNBA line as well that gets us to 4% EV at 1309 if we add in the hell is that person's name r Jackson and that was Point goes oh it's not baseball because I'm a downright [ __ ] when I do this all right so it's got to be imaga that gets us to four because I want to roll the dice here now we're up to 20 5% boost so we're at 1112 correct 8% win rate but we pay out 1390 yeah we're still going to be sitting in like two or three range which isn't ideal but we're going to roll the dice on it one way the other four legger we're going to use the Boost we're not going anywhere near that bet size 10 to win 139 is it likely no but we're taking advantage of the Boost nonetheless we just don't have a lot of value out there to really squeeze like in those situations you really just need one play that really breaks out and that changes your expected value here does DraftKings have anything interesting today football football football football parlay boost tennis yeah nothing really going on on the DraftKings side either but we're gonna hit all of the possible football stuff that we can get Tomorrow there's going to be free squares on Underdog sleeper prize picks we're going to have Boost and tokens on FanDuel and 365 and DraftKings tomorrow is going to be a big one because we are going to unload a full clip on anything that we can find with value for the Chiefs and Ravens tomorrow that will be the number one priority of everything that we do we are going to try to grab as much as we can because especially for week one of the NFL but it's probably going to be for the first couple weeks there's going to be a lot of free money to be had at the very least iev options with very very very low risk we got to hit all of them so I hope you guys are going to be here tomorrow for now we've got our round robin we got our prize picks card we got a sleeper card I think we're where we want to be sign up using the link in the description if you want odd Shopper on all the tools that you've seen if you want to go even deeper go to The Insider Marketplace discover insiders and click the name Josh Ang subscribe to me either weekly or monthly and if you want more grab Mitch grab defy the odds ly gajeski Lindy the boss man himself Alex Baker Ben Aon Nathan Danny Burke Isaiah that's everything that you can get right now individually if you're looking for those types of plays and this is growing every single day buckle up we're going to have a ton of people in the marketplace shortly good luck everybody cross your fingers for me so we can have a better day than we did yesterday it can't get any worse [Music]