Who will win the Big Ten? 2024 College Football Preview & Schedule Predictions

2024 conference previews roll on with the Big 10 conference it's one of the power two leagues if you want to call it that and of course it is the first year without divisions which has led to some uneven schedules which means potentially more playoff teams now the top of the conference is loaded but the middle to the bottom of the league has picked themselves up quite a bit former walkovers like Rutgers and Indiana those are not such easy outs anymore I mean hell Northwestern won eight games a year ago with an interim coach right Illinois has proven to be a tough out under Brett belma and of course there is the addition of the four West Coast Schools to pair with the typically strong core of Ohio State Michigan Penn State Etc now before we get into it you guys know what to do of course like the video subscribe to the channel and subscribe to the podcast because throughout the season I'm going to be doing shows on the podcast that you're not going to be able to get over here on YouTube and do me a favor jump down in those comments and tell me your thoughts on these teams who you think is going to win the conference Etc if uh if you'd like to keep up with my bonus content during the season stats projections uh picks as I make them bonus podcast Etc sign up at betting cfb.isd wins from my numbers and I'm going to try and make this quicker because there's there's 18 teams in this conference and it's week one so let's go ahead and dive into it we will start off with the Illinois fighting Li current win total is 5 and a half that has not moved this summer uh odds of plus 104 to go over that's 49.0 2% probability and minus 128 to go under that is 5614 per probability conference odds are 2001 that is about a half of a percent ability now for why they might go over their win total they've got emerging Playmakers right the junior quarterback Luke almeer he showed flashes a potential last season and you know with more experience he could take this offense to a a better level um and of course he's got transfer receiver uh zakari Franklin coming in maybe he recaptures his UTSA form uh you've got improved offensive line depth key additions like JC Davis at left tackle the offensive line probably going to be a strength and what would you expect anything less from a Brett belma team uh so Al me's going to have protection and you know I would imagine they're going to be able to create some running lanes for a pretty rejuvenated backfield and the number three you got a favorable schedule uh you got some tough matchups against Penn State uh Oregon you know at Michigan is on here you got some tough spots there but they do benefit from having most of their winable games at home so getting to six wins it's certainly a Poss possibility certainly a possibility now for what they might go under it's a defensive rebuild right you're losing stars like Newton and Randolph that leaves a significant gap on the defensive line and you know things did not exactly get better last year after Ryan Walters left uh you've got an inconsistent offense altm did show flashes last year but he had a 13 to1 touchdown interception ratio um there was an issue with consistency right so if there's not Improvement uh you could have something similar to last year's one and four record in one score uh games and then of course you got tough conference games right you got big 10 matchups against again I mentioned Michigan Penn State Oregon those you don't feel like you're going to win anyway but you got some pretty challenging Road games as well Nebraska uh Rutgers Northwestern those are not exactly easy games they're projected to be an underdog in every one of those so if you find yourself on the wrong side of a bunch of those coin flip games it's going to be tough to get over five and a half wins uh the rating right now I've got them nationally number 70 conference rating is 16 projected wins I've got him at 5.37 so slightly under I do have him a favorite projected in five games and I've got him in five toss-up games so we're going to see what this team looks like going forward we'll move on to the Indiana hooers current win total is 5 and a half there there that's the same as the opener you got odds ofus 138 to go over that's 57.98 per probability and plus 112 to go under that's 47.1 7% conference odds for Indiana are the same as Illinois to1 that is half of a percent probability for why they might go over you got a bunch of experienced transfers new coach Kurt Signet brought in just a wave of talented players from James Madison that includes the defensive end Kamar um Indiana look they significantly upgraded their roster which should make them more competitive across the board they do have a manageable schedule you look at this thing you got three wins that should be should be shoe wins right or I think we call them gimme wins so you got three gimme wins then you got a bunch of them that are just coin flips I mean this is one of the easiest that Indiana's had in years right you got winnable non-conference games FIU Western Illinois um Charlotte you got to go to UCLA but is that that daunting really and we'll see and then of course you got proven coaching like cetti has a track record of winning and and winning quickly uh at multiple places so that would lead you to assume that he could turn this Indiana team around um especially with the fact that he's got a bunch of key transfers that he is really really familiar with now for what they might go under 31 new transfers you might have some chemistry concerns right you got a new coaching staff as well trying to develop the cohesiveness with this Bunch especially in the Big 10 that's going to be rough uh a lot of these incoming transfers they are all unproven against the power five you know the uh quarterback Curtis RoR comes from Ohio hadn't really played a big 10 type of schedule right so but it's a lot of other guys like that as well so you don't know what these guys are going to look like in the Big 10 where competition is a little bit more difficult I I think that's maybe putting it mildly and then of course there are defensive vulnerability the front seven has seen some upgrades but the secondary remains a concern you got potential issues in pass coverage and uh you're going to have to go up against some pretty strong big 10 offenses right their rating is number 82 conference rating is number 18 so I've got them dead last in the conference uh projected wins 5.76 which is slightly over because of that schedule and I've got three games as a projected favorite with six toss-up games so there is there's certainly a better chance for them to go over than maybe say Illinois uh but that's just because of the schedule right you got Michigan State you got Washington you got Purdue you got Northwestern Maryland like these are winnable games even even going on the road to UCLA who I've got UCLA as a double- digit favorite I don't feel great about that like this is this is a good spot for uh for Indiana here moving along the Iowa Hawkeyes oh yes current win total is 8 1/2 that's up from the 7 and A2 opener odds of plus 152 to go over that's 39.68 per probability and minus 188 that is 65.2% so the favorite here is the under 8 and a half I can totally understand it odds to win the Big 10 40 to1 that's an implied probability of 2.44% I don't think we're going to worry about them winning the Big 10 could they get to the Big 10 title game I mean you look at the schedule and tell me so as for why they might go over the 8 and a half they do have an elite defense going to be the oldest in all of FBS I think the average age of their starters is 23 they got 11 of 14 key Defenders returning uh that includes you know standout players like black Castro Higgins Etc uh their defense is absolutely going to remain one of the best in the country so that in and of itself is going to set the stage for a pretty strong season despite whatever offensive struggles they might have number two experience right Kirk fence he's going into his 26th year he knows how to win close games he prefers to win close games they play Old School grinded out kind of football he maximizes results even with limited offensive output eight or more wins is absolutely attainable right and then number three you got a favorable schedule here 2024 schedule remarkably manageable you got wi b games against weaker Big 10 opponents and you're avoiding several of the conference's top teams right so you got a path here to be able to exceed expectations now for why they might go under offense right you you brought in a new offensive coordinator Tim Lester and I like him but it's a new offensive approach I don't know that the roster necessarily fits what he wants to do yet but uh but the offense was abysmal last season and and years before that we don't know whether or not Kade mamera or Brendan Sullivan can Elevate that side of the ball I would maybe trust Sullivan more at this point because mamera you you haven't heard good things out of uh out of camp but regardless uh you do have offensive line issues that's that's a problem despite returning four starters I Iowa's offensive line was not great last year or even the year before they haven't lived up to their historical standard which is one of the best offensive lines in the country in quite some time if they can't you know help the running game if they can't pass protect it's going to be a problem and then of course number three special teams decline like you're losing your Elite punter Tory Taylor he was critical in helping flip field position last season that could absolutely hurt Iowa's ability to control the games through defense of special teams especially if whoever the replacement is does not measure up I've got him rated nationally number 26 conference rating is number six I've got him at 7.27 wins so I've got him going under with 10 games as a projected favorite and seven tossup games tossup games by the way are uh one score games so I'm I'm seeing a lot of them on here but the the toughest game on the board is Ohio State outside of that there's not a single game on here that they could not win like I all of them really I've got seven toss-ups really all of them could be toss-ups like I've got Michigan State Northwestern Troy and Illinois State as games that should be should be wins but I mean you never know you never know with this team we carry on and we move to the Maryland terpens current win total is 62 that's down from the 7 and 1/2 opener odds of plus 116 to go over that's only 46.3% probability minus 142 to go under that's 58.6% conference odds plus 12,000 that's 120 to1 that is 83% probability now for why they might go over experienced coaching defensive continuity you got Brian Williams entering his third year as defensive coordinator Maryland's defense improved from 46th to 11th in defensive SP Plus uh and and it should continue to be a strength right they so long as they do that they've got a solid foundation they should be able to compete and basically every game on the schedule again who would have thought Maryland and defense would be what you're looking at and I don't know if that had to do with how bad the Big 10 offenses were last year that's something to pay attention to uh schedule soft early schedule Maryland does avoid Ohio State and Michigan um and they face a manageable early schedule you got winnable games against teams like Virginia and Indiana uh and those are both on the road but your home games Yukon Michigan State Villanova like those those should be wins you could build up a little bit of momentum heading into that bye then on the back side you get Northwestern at home you get USC at home and then you got to play at Minnesota all of those are winnable games so not totally crazy uh you do have talented skill positions right despite losing baby Tua Talia T Talia Tonga aloa uh Maryland does return key Playmakers in you know the wide receiver Kaden Prather you got Ty Felton you got running back Roman HBY there there's a lot of talent here and you know so long as you can get them the ball it should be a dynamic offense that can surprise opponents right so we we'll see if it's MJ Morris or Billy Edwards in which one of those can actually step up here as for why they might go under quarterback uncertainty as I just mentioned baby Tua is gone so there's unproven options at quarterback MJ Morris didn't look great at NC State uh and then decided he didn't want to play any more after four games Billy Edwards Jr not exactly a passer I mean these guys are pretty limited as far as the efficiency goes so you know this could be a concern the offensive line is rebuilt right Maryland's offensive line it turns only two part-time starters that's a significant rebuild here you got three key linemen that are now in the NFL I mean this unit could absolutely struggle to protect the quarterback back um and even even open up running lanes for uh for the offense so and then of course as easy as the beginning of the schedule is the late season schedule is pretty brutal right it's a it's a relatively soft start but then you get to that middle part you got USC then you got to go at Minnesota which both are winnable but still the last four games of the schedule at Oregon rgar at home Iowa at home at P State thank you you go one and three in those spots you're feeling pretty good feeling pretty good about yourself so uh I've got him nationally rated number 44 confence rating is number 11 I've got them at 6.47 wins so I've got them slightly under uh eight games as a favorite or a projected favorite and seven toss-up games so seven ones score games here uh a lot of coin flips lot of coin flips to pay attention to on this Bunch all right that's not what we want that's what we want yes the Michigan Wolverines current win total is 8 and a half this thing opened at n and a half it's dropped a full win you got odds of minus 162 to go over that 61.83 per implied probability that is certainly the favorite here so Vegas or the sports books are expecting uh an over here they're expecting at least nine wins and then of course plus 132 to go under that is 43.1% probability conference odds are plus 850 that is 10.53% % chance to win the Big 10 now for why they might go over their eight and a half win total you got an elite defensive core Mason Graham Kenneth Grant will Johnson they're going to Anchor a defense that that could be better than last year I don't know how that would be statistically possible but as far as playing yeah that Bunch could absolutely be awesome their front seven is set up to be able to dominate uh if they do that Wolverine are going to have a strong chance to shut down even the best offenses on the schedule speaking of the schedule of course it is a favorable schedule right or at least as far as timing is concerned Michigan's toughest games that includes matchups against Texas uh Oregon Ohio State those all come later in the season that allows the team to gel a little bit well Texas doesn't come later in the season that's week two but you do have a a workout game ahead of that one so that certainly helps out but that that's going to allow the team to gel a little bit work through some of this early season Growing Pains before they face Elite competition and then number three you got Dynamic Playmakers on offense yeah you did lose some key offensive players but you still got Donovan Edwards back there you got coulston leveland back there all of them could Thrive with an expanded role and that would give you enough Firepower to be able to push past this eight and a half win total as for why they might go under you got an inexperienced coaching staff right Chiron Moore takes over his head coach first time Kirk Campbell is the new offense coordinator there's significant uncertainty in leadership um and that could lead to struggle in some pretty high pressure situations against top tier opponents it helps that shiron Moore coached some of these games last year but he was not there during he was there but he was not the lead dog when it came to game planning Etc everything was basically set up for him once you get the game day so Jim Harbaugh despite being suspended was still allowed to coach the team during the week so this was not Chiron Moore's program yet uh number two you got a quarterback uncertainty JJ McCarthy Ian that is a major void at quarterback you got Alex orgy you got Jack Tuttle uh and I forget the other guy's name uh and I should have put it in my notes because it looks like he's beating out Tuttle uh at least for the backup roll we don't know yet whether or not he might start over orgy but I would imagine or is going to get the start but again uncertainty it's not like orgy has been great at throwing the football and then you have an offensive line rebuild right this was a massive strength and they returned zero starters from last year there's a lack of continuity lack of experience we'll see what they look like um because can you establish a dominant Run game if your offensive line is not and the answer is no obviously and so they're rating I've got them rated number eight in the country but I've got them rated number four in the conference projected wins I've got him at 8.93 so slightly over the8 and a half I've got him a projected favorite in nine games and I've got him in four toss-ups toss-ups Texas Washington Oregon and Ohio State now the Washington one it's only toss up because it's on the road uh and it's the week after you're playing well two weeks after you play USC and the week after you play Minnesota and that could be one of those kind of bruis it type of games so carrying on WE moov to the Michigan State Spartans current wind tot is 4 and A2 the opener was 5 and A2 so it's moved down an entire game odds minus 154 to go over that's 6.63% that is the favorite and plus 126 to go under that's 44.2% probability conference odds are plus 25,000 that's 250 to1 that is 4% chance of them winning the Big 10 now for what they might go over you got defensive potential here revamped secondary you got proven talents like ucf's uh Martinez you get Arizona State's Ed Woods you pair that with a strong front seven by bolstered by some more key transfers and uh in the Spartans defense under Joe Rossy the former Minnesota defensive coordinator could actually be formidable in year one right and if they can do that they're going to be competitive in a lot of games number two Jonathan Smith new head coach it's a he's a rebuilding machine at least from what he did at Oregon State but it took a little while at at Oregon State um it he's got a very disciplined approach very methodical he's going to build this up the right way maybe it helps them exceed expectations pretty quickly uh especially because they did bring in quite a bit of talent uh I don't know that it's as much as everybody else on the schedule but you know they've got experienced quarterback options they got some pretty Dynamic offensive weapons you never know and then you do have a a favorable schedule stretch right while the early and mid-season games post challenges the back half of this schedule I mean you got some winable games here you got Indiana at home Illinois on the road Purdue at home Rutgers at home you could certainly end with some momentum heading into next season if you're able to get three out of those four get you an FAU a lisiana and then three of the last four I mean you're feeling pretty good about yourself at that point so in the middle of the schedule though Ohio State Oregon Iowa Michigan ye that is rough now as for why they might go under their total uh offensive line issues right you only got one offensive line turning with any kind of experience uh depth is a major concern here so again you got to be able to protect the quarterback you got to be able to establish a a ground game here it's going to be a bit of an issue quarterback uncertainty right Aiden Charles is your quarterback Tommy Schuster comes in neither quarterback has proven themselves at the Big 10 level or really at any level and the lack of offensive cohesion I mean that could be a big issue turnovers stalling drives all that kind of stuff it all depends on what these quarterbacks end up looking like and then of course rebuild growing pain right you got a new coaching staff you get significant roster overhaul you got the loss of some key defensive players this could be the prototypical transitional year if you get some inconsistent performances so I it it may be tough to get over that four and a half nationally I've got them rated number 78 conference rating I've got number 17 projected wins are 4.58 that is a slight over here uh with three games as a projected favorite and then seven one- score tossup games so that is uh something to pay attention to because there are plenty of plenty of coin flip games here all right we move on to the Minnesota Golden Gophers current win total is 5 and a half it opened at four and a half so there has been a little bit of love in the market for the Golden Gophers odds ofus 102 to go over that's 50.5% probability andus 120 to go under that is 54.55% probability to go under that would be the favorite here conference odds 250 to1 that's 0 4% exactly what we just talked about Michigan State now as far as why Minnesota might go over their one total we think the defense is ready to rebound right yeah you lost Joe Rossy but I mean they returned 14 key Defenders that includes a standout linebacking Cory you got disruptive ends like uh Danny sto and J Joiner like this defense is capable of keeping Minnesota in almost every game that they play you got to R Ed offense you bring in uh the veteran quarterback Max brosmer uh you got a deep powerful running back room with uh with Taylor there leading the way I mean the gopher's offense could take a pretty significant step forward especially if brosmer adapts to Big 10 play pretty quick and maximizes those that are that are around him and then of course you got a favorable schedule you avoid Ohio State you avoid Oregon that's a big win right and you got several winnable games against pretty evenly matched opponents uh Minnesota's got a prettyy clear path to six or more wins if they can capitalize on those opportunities now as far as why they might go under as much as we talked about Max brosmer you do have a bit of offensive uncertainty here uh if he doesn't live up to expectations or if he gets injured that offense could remain stagnant right even though you got Taylor back there Taylor's another one if he gets injured what does that running back room look like you got inexperience in key positions secondary wide receiver cord those are all unproven uh you got new starters at the positions if they don't perform at a pretty high level I mean it could be an issue especially with explosive plays on both sides of the ball you might not be able to generate them you might not be able to stop them so it could lead to some pretty costly mistakes in tight games and when you got as many toss-ups as they do you got six of them here uh it could cost you games right you got tough conference matchups yeah you avoid the top teams but you still got Michigan on the schedule USC uh Penn State you get what we think is going to be an improved Wisconsin team at the end of the year might be a bit of an issue uh their rating is number 58 nationally the conference rating is number 13 projected wins I've got him at 5.3 so I'm slightly under the 5 and a half I've got two games as a projected favorite and that's it which is pretty nuts and uh in six tossup games so I'm I'm not super high on Minnesota this year but I if they got to six wins would it surprise anybody PJ Fleck has done more with less so or less with more either way you guys get the point you I think I think you guys get the point but we'll see carrying on the Nebraska Corn Huskers current win total is 7 and a half that one has not moved odds of minus 122 to go over that's the favorite here probability of 54.9 5% and an even plus 100 to go under that's right 50% conference odds 50 to1 that is 1.96% probability of winning the Big 10 now for why they might go over youthful Talent injection right you got five star quarter back Dylan rayola you got a crop of Highly touted freshman there's certainly the potential here for some explosive Improvement on offense especially if rayola can adapt to the Big 10 pretty quickly Matt Rule's track record is number two here rule has a history of pretty rapid turnarounds he has built winning programs at Temple and Baylor and you know those are two pretty difficult jobs Nebraska's got a favorable early schedule he could guide them to a quick start if you got momentum once you get into the back half of that schedule that some of those games become even more winnable so something to pay attention to uh they got a stout defense right Tony White's 335 defense I mean it was top 10 in a bunch of different categories last season they returned some key players like uh hut moer hut mocker however you say it uh and Tommy Hill as well it it's going to give Nebraska a pretty strong Foundation here uh if they can control some of these games with their defense the offense doesn't have to be the best thing on the field right now for why they might not go their win total inexperienced a quarterback uh depending on a true freshman quarterback I mean no matter how talented Raa is there's going to be some Growing Pains so struggling in some of these tight contests might make it where they don't get over that seven and a half uh you got offensive coordinator concerns Marcus atfield he's had issues with production and there's a lot of people that doubt him he's got a better quarterback now than he's had in a while he did have Spencer Rattler at South Carolina but even still there's promising reports from Spring practice but it's almost one of those situations where you're going to have to see it to believe it right and then you got a tough closing stretch uh you got a potentially strong start here but the final five games are all against top 30 opponents uh you got UCLA you got Ohio State you got USC Wisconsin Iowa those are all difficult games all very losable spots so again it might be tough to get over that seven and a half here I've got him rated number 36 conference rating is actually number nine and projected wins I've got him at 6.67 so I've got him almost a full win under the seven and a half u a lot of that has to do with one they're favored in nine games but they've got eight toss-up games so eight one- score games are expected out of this Bunch go and flip that over and now we go to the Northwestern Wildcats current win total is four and a half opened at five and a half so it's down a full win odds of minus 122 to go over that's the favorite here 54.9 5% probability and an even 100 to go under that's 50% conference odds are 400 to1 that's plus 40,000 with an implied probability of 0.25% now for why they might go over their win total the defense certainly should carry the load with Braun's team right 14 returning Defenders that includes leaders like Mueller and hub the Wildcats defense should absolutely be a disruptive force and if they can do that they can keep some of these games close and they might be able to find a way to grind out some wins you do have experienced leadership David brwn proved last year that he's pretty good uh led him to an 8 and5 record and and it was under extremely challenging circumstances but now you got a full offseason to prepare he's brought in his guys we'll see what that looks like and then of course a favorable early schedule their first three games are against Miami V Ohio Duke and Eastern Illinois and then you got Washington on the road and Washington with 21 out of 22 new starters I mean that is banana who knows what to expect out of them but you start off with three winnable games that you're favored in that you build some early momentum and then just see where the chips land that's what we're going to do so as for why they might not go over their win total inconsistent quarterback play there's not a single proven quarterback out of the bunch you got helinski you got Mike Wright you got Jack um they might struggle to find some stability on offense right and if you can't do that I mean it's going to be real difficult to win some of these games um offensive challenges right Zack Luhan he's the new offensive coordinator comes in from South Dakota State you got to revamp an offense that lacks talent that lacks size uh and he had all of those things at South to Goa State uh you got a shaky offensive line here and even with some of the talented running backs like cam Porter it might be tough for them to find some traction here if the offensive line is working right so uh regression from 2023 success Northwestern had a favorable schedule in 2023 there was a bit of luck in some of those close games last year there's a a tougher slate this go round the loss of that Underdog surprise Factor right that people are going to be paying attention now because a lot of teams lost to North Western last year that are going to be playing them again so and the the turnover I think they were plus 10 or plus 13 in turnover margin last year we'll we'll see if that continues to hold I've got him rated number 59 confer rating is number 14 projected wins I've got him at 4.98 so slightly over the four and a half five games as a projected favorite but eight toss-up games so you got a bunch of coin flip games there that you're going to have to pay attention to tickets to everything are expensive these days and I know you're like me you want to catch a big game or a concert maybe even tickets to a show why not save some money every time you buy tickets visit ticketsmarter.com or use the ticketsmarter mobile app and use the promo code wc10 that's wc10 to save $10 on any order of $100 more or use wc20 that's wc20 to save $20 on an order of $300 or more it's not a onetime sign up bonus or anything seriously every time you buy tickets you can save money on already great deals so do yourself a favor think Smarter with ticket smarter the Ohio State Buckeyes are next current win total is 10 and a half that is the same as the opener odds of minus 150 to go over that's 60% probability and plus 120 to go under that is 45.45% probability conference odds plus 150 so 40% chance to win the Big 10 they are the favorite here now as for why Ohio State might go over the win total Elite defense right you got 10 out of 14 key Defenders coming back under Jim nolles it's his third year there Jim nolles has improved defenses every single season for like nine years I mean it's something crazy uh they got a top tier defense that's going to dominate most of their schedule I mean you see the schedule on the screen there um and as long as you got a good defense that's a good foundation for a championship caliber season uh as far as the other ones they got a dynamic backfield right other reasons why they might go over uh trayon Henderson and quinch on Judkins that's I mean that is an incredibly potent onew punch right uh you got a consistent and explosive running game you're going to be able to control the tempo there you also have experienced leadership right Ryan day is 56 and8 as head coach and he brings in Chip Kelly as the offensive coordinator you got a wealth of experience on the sidelines uh along with Jim nolles who I mentioned before uh but they they can rebound and compete at the absolute highest level here uh now as for why they might go under than win total you got a little bit of quarterback uncertainty right will Howard certainly has experience but he's not the best passer known to man um and that could certainly limit explosiveness right against top tier defenses you got offensive line concerns yeah they got four starters back but the lons struggled last season you bring in Seth mcclaflin who was at Alabama he had snapping issues there um we'll see if it solidifies the unit who knows uh there's mounting pressured win right three straight losses to Michigan you got a pretty demanding schedule you got tough road games at Oregon at Penn State then you got Michigan at the end of the year I mean there's a lot of pressure on Ryan day and who knows what expectations can do to a team right I've got him rated number three in the country uh conference rating is number two uh that's well we'll talk about the next team in a minute but I've got them at projected at excuse me I've got them projected at 10.4 win so I've got them slightly under but 11 games as a projected favorite and three toss-ups I got the Michigan game as a tossup because I've only got a favored by 7.97 so for it to be considered a a guaranteed win gu here get in the camera guaranteed uh I need them to be favored by more than eight so right now I've got him a maybe almost a half Point favorite at Penn State I got him a three-point dog at Oregon we'll see we'll see what happens with Ohio State next up the Oregon Ducks current win total 10 and a half same as Ohio State same as the opener odds of minus 110 to go over 110 to go under those are both 52.38% probability to win the Big 10 plus 220 that's implied probability of 31.25% now why Oregon might go over their win total explosive offense right you bring Dylan Gabriel in under Center he has been a college quarterback for what feels like a decade at this point but you got a deep talented receiver room you got plenty of Firepower on offense I mean you got Jordan James you got Evan Stewart leading the charge we'll see what Evan Stewart looks like he wasn't able to really we'll say get after it at Texas A&M he's certainly going to be put in a position to here in Eugene uh defensive upgrades Dan Lanning has significantly bolstered the defense top tier transfers you got a bunch of returning Talent uh they are going to have a unit that is more than capable of competing and probably dominating in the 10 and then you got a favorable schedule I mean look at this thing and you got tough road games at Michigan at Wisconsin you get Ohio State at home other than that I mean this is this sets up really really well it is more than manageable um we'll see what they do we'll see what they do now for why they might not go over their win total you do have some depth concerns on defense right starting lineup is certainly solid but the defensive front maybe lacks a little bit of proven depth which could be exposed in the Big 10 uh especially if they end up with some injuries right and then of course there's the transition to the Big 10 you know jumping from the Pack 12 to the Big 10 it's a different level of competition and that's not to say that the Pack 12 was bad it's just different right the Big 10 is a much more physical style of play and you start looking at some of these late Road games at Michigan at Wisconsin yeah I mean that's those games can get kind of tough and then of course you've got expectations there's a lot of pressure that comes with that like if Phil Knight has has instilled a championship or bust mentality and there's a huge Reliance on transfers here so the pressure on Dan Lanning to deliver I mean you never know what's going to happen in some of these critical games right especially you've got a new quarterback under Center you got you got transfers in at key positions it's going to be very interesting to see as far as the talent and whatnot I've got them power rated number two in the country conference rating I've got him number one projected wins I've got him at 10. 49 so 0.01 under the 10 and a half here uh I've got him a favorite in all 12 games I've only got two toss-up games at Michigan and then Ohio State at home very interesting I'm curious to see what this Oregon team is going to look like all right the Penn State nitty Lions current win total is n and a half that is the same as the opener odds of minus 172 to go over that is 63.2 4% uh probability and plus 1402 go under that is 4 1.67% now conference odds are plus 450 uh that is 18.18% chance to win the Big 10 now for why they might go over they do have explosive potential right Drew Aller probably poised to take some more risks under uh you know and he's got a Canon arm we all know that uh but under the new offensive coordinator Andy cotal Nikki I think the Penn State offense is finally going to generate some big plays that have been missing right you know they've got a powerful running game not that Allen and Singleton were great last year but I think that we know what they are as far as running the football I think they can they can certainly open up the explosive part of the passing game uh they've got a stingy defense right you got some departures but you bring in Tom Allen former Indiana head coach and also former Indiana defensive coordinator um he is the new DC here he inherits a defense that was for all intents and purposes top tier last season uh they they keep Abdul Carter they got Kobe King still there like Penn State's going to remain one of the toughest teams to score on in the entire Big 10 and they've got an insanely favorable schedule right Michigan is off the regular season schedule Ohio State visits Happy Valley they are in a spot here at I I think they can navigate this schedule pretty easily like I think they can set up an 11- win season so as for why they might go under the offensive line is a question right you you lost three NFL caliber linemen there's some concerns about protecting Drew Aller right and then whether or not there's going to be running lanes for Allen and Singleton who weren't great after the tackle or after contact last year so we'll see exactly what that means for the offense's effectiveness there's inexperience a wide receiver right you've got a lack of proven Playmakers there um you know like it could stifle the passing game it could make it harder for Aller to capitalize on I mean you got Julian Fleming but he's a transfer coming in he does have experience but we'll see what that looks like because the The Playmakers we haven't really seen them make plays we'll say that uh and then there's there's a potential for defensive regression right defensive line depth the potential issues in the secondary maybe uh that could lead to a drop from last year's you know Elite defensive performance so if they can't do that it's going to be tougher to control Games Etc uh I've got him power rated number six in the country conference rating is number three I've got projected wins at 9.98 so over the 9 and a half uh 11 games as a projected favorite and two toss-up games next on the board we have got the Purdue boiler makers boiler makers yes current win total four and a half that is the same as the opener it hadn't moved odds of plus 142 to go over that's 41.328698 .25% Purdue is not going to win the Big 10 I could almost guarantee that uh now as for why they might go over their win total year two bump right Ryan Walters coming into his second year uh more settled roster here they could benefit from a typical year two bump particularly with a returning quarterback right you got Hudson card back and he has shown uh flashes certainly we'll see what he looks like this year because he's missing one of his Dynamic Playmakers there uh Solid Ground game of course you got four returning starters on the offensive line you got you got a proven backfield uh led by Devon mcabe and you got the transfer coming in Reggie love the third like Purdue running game has the potential to you know control the clock keep games Within Reach Etc and then there's defensive potential right Ryan Walters knows what he's doing with the defense yeah you got a few losses here and there but the defense still has standout players like uh Jenkins and the enan you got you got a chance to lean on a pretty solid defensive core uh going into this season now for a while they might go under inexperienced at Receiver right receiving core is almost like completely new and there's Talent there but the lack of proven production like that that could that could be an issue for Hudson card right so we'll see what that ends up looking like they've got a pretty tough schedule I mean this you got Notre Dame in week two and then you play at Oregon State in week three Nebraska comes in right after I mean this is it is brutal to start and then it ain't much easier on the back end right on the like once you get through Notre Dame Morgan State Nebraska you got to go to Wisconsin then you got to go to Illinois then Oregon comes in you got a bye you get Northwestern at home probably should win that maybe but then you got Ohio like at Ohio State Penn State comes in you get to close with games against Michigan State and Indiana but they're both on the road like it's it's tough to find winable games here there's a few coin flip games but good gracious uh depth concerns are certainly an issue you got a heavy Reliance on trans transfers and you know young incoming players you deal with injuries or any kind of unexpected underperformance that could expose a lack of depth right particularly on the defensive line in the secondary that would lead to you know potential struggles in some close games I've got him power rated number 61 conference rating is number 15 projected wins though I've got him at 4.58 so that is slightly over uh with four games as a projected favorite and six toss-up games so I I'm curious about ran Walters in uh in year 2 here curious about that all right still got a few more uh but C I'm I'm recording this on Friday of week one we got to get these previews out I've had them done for a while Uh current win total for the Rutger Scarlet Knights Rutgers Scarlet Knights yes current win total is six that is down from the six and a half opener odds a minus 140 to go under excuse meus 140 to go over 58.33% probability there and plus 120 to go under that's 45.45% it's 120 to1 to win the Big 10 that is 83% probability now for why they might go over returning production right ruers is number 13 nationally in returning production according to Bill connley uh they bring back a pretty cohesive and experienced group on both sides of the ball you know that leads to some kind that that is continuity that is stability especially on defense you know what Greg shano likes to do uh the defense is the backbone you get a strong secondary flip Dixon of course loyal uh the defense ranked 19th in s SP plus last year they they can lean on this you know kind of B but don't break unit um I'm curious I'm curious about it and then of course a favorable schedule that's the biggest thing they avoid Ohio State they avoid Michigan they avoid Oregon they avoid Penn State I mean you got winnable games against Virginia Tech and Minnesota I mean there are there's a chance they could really get past this win total like big time now as for why they might go under offensive questions right the offense is certainly a concern you got new quarterback in aan cak Menace uh he's yet to prove that he can consistently produce at a high level in the Big 10 and that could lead to struggles and moving the ball and and scoring points right there are defensive line concerns right you got a strong secondary here but the defensive front's lack of size and and really their poor uh poor performance last year in Rush defense yeah I mean they were 124th in rushing success allow that might prevent ruggers from controlling the line of scrimmage leaves some vulnerable against some more physical teams Etc and there are certainly physical teams on the schedule you got Nebraska Wisconsin uh Minnesota and here Michigan State at the end of the year that those are teams that are certainly going to try and get rough with you and then there's tough road games right the schedule's favorable but you got challenging Road games at Virginia Tech uh USC is on the road and and then you got tricky matchups against teams like Nebraska and Illinois that if you don't get those wins especially early yeah we'll see what happens I've got him power rated number 49 conference rating is number 12 projected wins I've got him at 6.48 so I've got them going over the six uh but I've got five projected favorites or well five games where they are a projected favorite and then I got nine toss-ups he got nine coin flip games right there just uh it's going to be interesting rers is a team that is certainly set up for success but it could go Haywire quickly the UCL Bruins current win total 4 and A2 that's down from the 5 and a half opener which it makes perfect sense Chip Kelly left late they hired in Foster you know and then of course Foster didn't exactly look great he didn't uh he didn't instill a lot of confidence in betters at uh Big 10 media days over the summer we'll say that but odds of minus 144 to go over that is 59.0 2% probability that is the favorite here plus 118 to go under that is 45.8 7% probability on that conference odds are 100 50 to1 that's 66% chance to win the Big 10 why UCLA might go over their win total they do have an experienced offense Ethan garbers returns he leads an offense that returns a pretty solid core right you got veteran offensive line you got explosive backs like TJ Harden UCLA's offense could certainly Thrive under Eric beny's leadership uh and yes Eric benamy from the NFL is now the new offensive coordinator it it makes them interesting if nothing else right there is defensive depth they retain nine key defensive players from unit that steadily improved and then ended up number 11 in defense last year uh that's a pretty solid foundation you got transfers like KJ Wallace Brian Addison that are going to bolster the the secondary but again but we'll we'll talk about why they might go under here in a minute and there is the energy boost right Deshawn Foster and beond Bey as the offensive coordinator it brought some energy into that program there's some enthusiasm there um the roster certainly likes the hire like they were excited about it so that could certainly lead them to go over this four and a half now for why they might go under the coaching transition right Chip Kelly is an experienced experienced head coach successful head coach knows what he's doing and now you're going to a firsttime head coach a guy that has never done this before in Deshawn Foster so there's going to be some uncertainty there right Foster needs to prove that he can manage the program effectively and and this is a really difficult schedule to be able to do that against uh for another reason why they might go under key losses on defense right uh Liu latu and Gabrielle Murphy they they were critical to UCLA's defensive success last year that's pretty big gaps yeah they bring back nine key guys or nine returning starters whatever how about this nine returning players that have experience there um but there's gaps in that pass rush and you don't know if they're going to be able to be filled in by incoming transfers or uh some of the recruits that came in they've got a grueling travel schedule right you got games at LSU at Penn State at Washington I mean that is at Nebraska it's going to be challenging to string together enough wins to to get past this total I'm interested right at LSU that that three- game stretch right there in the first five games you play at Hawaii you got a byee you host Indiana then you got to go all the way to Baton Rouge yes I have to say it like that I don't know Baton Rouge then you host Oregon at home and then you got to play at Penn State you host Minnesota you go all the way over to Rutgers you got you got a byee you go all the way to Nebraska Iowa at home there's there's no there's no getting comfortable here it's just back forth back forth all right so I've got him power rated number 33 which I was a little surprised at I felt like that was a little bit High uh but the confence rating I've got him at number seven projected wins 5.98 so I've certainly got him going over um but six games as a project favorite five toss-up games I I don't feel great about my numbers on this I don't think UCLA is going to be that good but maybe I'm wrong like I I've been wrong before and I'll certainly be wrong again the USC Trojans current win total is 7 and a half that is also the same as the opener had moved odds ofus 105 to go over that's 51.2 2% probability and minus 115 to go under so the under surprisingly the favorite here 5349 % probability on that conference odds 20 to1 to win the Big 10 that's 4.76% probability now for why they might go over Lincoln Riley they got offensive Firepower right yeah even even with a new quarterback in Miller Moss they are loaded loaded with skill Talent Zachariah Branch Duce Robinson Etc they're going to be a threat to score a lot of points against pretty much everybody on the schedule uh there are coaching updates or upgrades I guess uh the hiring of Danton Lynn as defensive coordinator like he he completely turned around UCLA's defense if he can do that at UCLA he's got better Talent at USC they haven't been very competent on defense but I think that he could make them he could make them more confident for sure um they they had key additions from the transfer portal especially on defense right bar Alexander came in last year Kamari Ramsey um they could provide a boost certainly that they need esally in a conference like this uh as for why they might go under it's a pretty daunting schedule right like this is one of the most challenging schedules in the country you got matchups against LSU to open up with at Michigan Notre Dame at the end of the year and then in the middle I mean you still got to deal with Penn State you got rudgers at Washington Nebraska you know all the there's there's difficult games here certainly difficult games if they're not firing on all cylinders while we talked good about the new defensive hires you know they did bring in Matt ins as well uh North Dakota State head coach he's going to be a linebacker coach here you know there's been an influx of defensive talent but there's a lack of depth there's a lack of size on that defensive line and in this conference you're going to need that I mean the big like I said the Big 10 is physical physical so you're going to have to have the bodies to be able to go through that uh there are coaching transition risks right like Danton Lynn I talked about that Rabbid turnover in defensive leadership you're bringing in new transfers new players could lead to some inconsistencies right so they might not reach their full potential but who knows I've got him power Raider number 20 conference rating is number five uh but projected wins I've got him at 6.82 so I've got him a little bit under which goes to show exactly how important a schedule is but I've got him eight games as a projected favorite and nine tossup games so we'll see I I'm a little bullish on USC I think Lincoln Riley is not going to let this thing completely fall back but yeah I it wouldn't take much for this program to go 7-5 right and I don't think that would be awful against the schedule but good gracious all right the Washington Huskies current win total is 6 and a half that's down from the 7 and a half opener odds of plus 104 to go over that is 49.2% probability and minus 132 that is the favorite here to go under that win total implied probability there is 56.9% conference odds are plus 10,000 so 101 that is .99 % probability on that now for why they might go over yes there is proven offensive Talent right Will Rogers comes in a quarterback he's got over 40 career starts over 12,000 passing yards in the SEC now that was all at Mississippi State but you get the point uh the offense I imagine it's going to have the tools to remain competent despite losing every single starter from last season if jedf fish and and Pete Carroll's son Brennan Carroll who is the new offensive coordinator if they can you know quickly integrate these guys uh Washington's offense could surprise they do have a dynamic rushing attack Jonah Coleman he's an elite running back he excelled at Arizona and he followed fish over there uh and then you got the promising true freshman uh Muhammad right Adam Muhammad the Huskies have got a a potent ground game at least by the players so if they've got that that's certainly something to lean back on if there's not a bunch of Chemistry Between Rogers and the uh the new skill guys right they do have a pretty solid defensive Foundation defensive line has question marks the whole team has question marks but you got experienced guys back uh tuputala I think is the guy's name Alfonso tuputala and you got Savvy transfers coming to Isaiah Ward Ephesians spry um the defense has a chance to be better than what we think uh especially with Steve belich as the defensive coordinator now for why they might go under massive massive inexperience in this system you got zero returning offensive starters on Washington's team you got minimal depth on the offensive line there are certainly challenges in building some consistency here uh that could lead to struggles against you know this big 10 schedule the defensive line has a lack of proven depth and size right like we've talked about this with numerous teams but they're not overly big they're not it it's it's a little scary I don't know that they've got the bodies to be able to go through a big 10 schedule um they could get overwhelmed I'll say that and then it's a brutal travel schedule right four trips across across the country in 41 days that includes games in the Eastern Time Zone and the Midwest um there's going to be logistical challenges right the schedule could lead to some fatigue uh I mean there's no telling what it might do what it might do to this team I've got him power rated number 37 you know the conference rating I've got him number 10 so that's better than nothing uh 6.41 win so I've got him slightly under with seven games as a projected favorite and eight toss-up games but I mean you look at the schedule yeah starting off Weber State Eastern Michigan Washington State on a neutral which Washington State's going to they would love to get that win you host Northwestern you play at Rutgers that's going to be kind of difficult but then Michigan Iowa a rebuilt Indiana USC Penn State UCLA and Oregon I mean it that back half of that schedule is brutal brutal for that Bunch all right then we'll close out with this the Wisconsin and Badgers current win total 6 and A2 same as the opener odds ofus 144 to go over that's 59.0 2% probability and plus 118 to go under so the over is certainly the favorite here uh 45.8 7% probability to go under uh conference odds so 5050 to1 to win the Big 10 that's 1.96% probability why Wisconsin might go over their win total defensive stability right 11 key def uh Defenders are coming back that includes the standout corner hman and for Queen you know they're poised to remain a top tier unit under Mike Trestle uh the the secondary super experienced you got the addition of mid major star uh Delany uh he could be a backbone of that defense you got a good defense you can St in some games I'll say that uh they do they should I said they do they should have an improved offensive line uh the offense did struggle last season but Luke fickle has talked about the offensive line quite a bit and and that was the most significant area of growth uh in the off season so if the line lives up to uh to its potential it could certainly provide a more consistent offense here uh especially with you know a healthy chz malusi uh Tyler van djk is going to be the starter here he's got big play potential at quarterback we think uh he wasn't great last year but that doesn't necessarily mean anything and uh the portal additions right Wisconsin did pretty well in the transfer portal especially at linebacker uh they brought in Jem Thomas from Arkansas uh taroa McMillan um yeah they they could fill in the gaps left by some departing players uh if these newcomers adapt quickly they could Elevate the defense to an elite level it gives the Badgers a chance to win some more games than uh than what's projected now for why they might go under maybe a bit of an offensive identity crisis right Phil Longo came in did the air raate offense it wasn't great last year uh but Tyler van djk is coming in he was inconsistent last year the offense might be disjointed again right it moving from the traditional power Run game to a to a pass heavy scheme that's challenging right especially when you get into November and you got some maybe some harsh weather conditions at Camp Randall I mean you you look at what they're going to be doing in late October you got Penn State at home you got Oregon at home you got Minnesota at home I mean that's rough to be able to throw the ball especially in conditions that we expect in Madison you got defensive line concerns right the defense a front it there's not a lot of depth there only James Thompson returns as a starter uh you got key contributors that that left in the portal there's pretty big question marks here especially against some pretty physical teams in the Big 10 right again we talk about the physical play in the Big 10 uh and Wisconsin's got a brutal schedule I mean it's just you got games against Alabama USC Oregon down there Iowa Penn State in the middle uh I mean it's a this is a brutal schedule uh even the perceived easier matchups right Rutgers um Nebraska like those are those are tricky Road games that could end up being losses right so this Gauntlet I mean it makes getting to seven wins pretty difficult they could be significantly improved and end up with a worse record than they did last year I've got him power rated number 34 conference trting as number eight so I've got projected wins at 6.48 that's slightly under but I've got him a favorite in six games and I've got five tossup games here all right so let's get to the uh the conference title who's going to make the conference title game I'm calling for a matchup that we are not going to see in the regular season give me Oregon and give me Penn State to make the big big 10 title game I'm I'm trying to go outside the box I think the majority of people have bought into Oregon and and uh Ohio state but I I could absolutely see Penn State getting there Ohio state has to play in both Eugene and Happy Valley after some pretty difficult tests the week before with Iowa and Nebraska leading into those games yeah Penn State makes sense I think Oregon makes sense um but man if we saw a rematch of Penn State and Ohio State I'd be fine with that too all right let's go and wrap this thing up like the video subscribe to the channel 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