College Football Week 2 Picks and Predictions | Texas vs Michigan | College Football Today 9/5/24

Introduction week two of the college football season it is a us here and we've got big games starting on Friday night we're going to talk about the Duke Blue Devils and whether or not they'll be able to uh continue their uh their quest to uh mediocrity uh how about uh BYU SMU how about Texas and Michigan how about Oklahoma State Arkansas hell we'll even mix in a little less why cuz Drew Martin is here and nobody does the SEC like Drew Martin uh so we'll have him ready to roll here with Kentucky and South Carolina as we bring in the three gentlemen here Ralph Michaels in the house Drew Martin Betts ready to roll here and uh let us kick it off there Ralph because nothing like a little uh a little Friday football to get it going here BYU taking on SMU uh what do we do two teams in a new conference what do you think we're going to get BYU vs SMU (Friday) - Ralph Michaels here you know Joe I did a lot of videos and I talked a lot about a team having a game under their belt and most people think that's an advantage but it really isn't it's actually a negative ATS number because there's an overreaction but this has been true the overaction goes away after week one so we have a situation here where SMU is playing their third game and BYU is only playing their second when I went back to the database and looking at home favorites playing game number three against a team playing only two games they have gone 59.2% with over 150 games of sample size when they are a favorite of eight or more it goes to 59.5% and listen to this if their opponent is off in FCS game so they have not played any true competition and there's a high total of 42 or more those teams like SMU have gone 65.7% now that all says I should be backing SMU here but I just can't get there these two played a couple years ago in the New Mexico in 2022 the Cougars hung on for a 2423 Victory they stopped SMU uh on basically the last play of the game on a two-point conversion to secure the victory under Rett Lashley SMU is um 10 and0 straight up and 73 as a favorite of minus 17 or more but as a smaller favor or a dog they're only six and 12 against the spread that is reason number one that I'm not on this play reason number two you look at Preston Stone I mean he had to look at the schedule and go oh my God I'm going to be in the Heisman chase after starting against Nevada and then hosting Houston Christian he was 17 of 30 folks that is 57% with only an 8.5 yards per attempt average against two of the weakest foes against the two weakest foes by far he will play the entire situation so game three versus game two is an edge but I don't want to lay 11 and a half with this total against the BYU team again they haven't been great as a dog under shitake the last three years as an away dog or small away favorite they're only three and eight straight up and ATS I lean SMU I think the line is a bit inflated and uh this is a game where I will look under first quarter or first half that's probably my strongest take on the game Preston Stone yes he will come out of his mini slump yes he will will see uh a lot of good numbers moving forward but remember this BYU team while they aren't greatly experienced I mean they do um you look at their returning starters they have 14 returning starters but remember all those kids went on missions and it's a very experienced BYU team I like SMU I like the numbers of three against two but the way they've started the season is enough to keep me off laying double digits all right not uh not interested in double digits is uh Ralph Michaels and can't blame him in this spot here it'll be interesting uh to see what we get out of both of those two teams here that's coming up on Friday but Drew we got a little SEC football coming up here my man looking forward to this Kentucky and South Carolina game I think ky's got one of the best defenses in the country I I think they're a top 10 defense with South Carolina vs Kentucky - Drew Martin without a doubt and I do think uh well I I do think that the quarterback player Kentucky is going to be an improvement over what it was last year so how do you see South Carolina taking on Kentucky here this week sure Joe I agree with uh what you're laying down there and I mean talk about a a big game in the SEC I mean arguably in my opinion it is the biggest game of the SEC this week I mean it gets the 3:30 Eastern time slot on ABC and uh South Carolina Kentucky has sted to become a pretty good rivalry here Joe and you speak towards defense I mean I I think you could make the argument you know Kentucky at top 20 possibly even top 10 why not week one they held Southern Miss to zero points now granted it was called early what 35 40 minutes into the game uh due to a weather delay but I mean it speaks towards Mark stops their head coach now that Nick Sabin is gone from Alabama who would have thought the longest 10e head coach in the SEC Conference is the Kentucky football head coach Mark stops and when you keep a job that long in this conference I mean think about how many head coaches are already on the hot seat even two three years into it uh you're doing something right he's got a good football team here in Lexington you speak towards the quarterback Brock Vander Griff uh he transferred from Georgia so if you're transferring from Georgia hey if Georgia gave you a scholarship you must be pretty good I got a stat here from Mark Lawrence that that makes me look towards Kentucky Joe and it's the Wildcats are 15-0 against the spread when they come off of a non-conference win and they're facing a team with a 500 win percentage or better and it speaks towards his coaching ability sure enough in week in week one you're not wanting to show everything and then you come back week two and you smash your opponent that's what a good coach does and it's not like Kentucky didn't smash their first opponent but it comes to speak that in this role they have been a profitable bet talking about the Gamecocks I mean if you're looking for points on South Carolina they have won the last two against Kentucky some in surprising fashion here and in week one they went up against Old Dominion you know a kind of a close Regional uh maybe little brother vers Big Brother type of thing they didn't look good though they actually got outgained they only won 23 to9 didn't come anywhere close to covering the three touchdowns and they were plus three in turnover margin they actually should have lost that game Shane Bieber sometime some people already talking that he is on the hot spe on the hot seat speaking of uh SEC coaches already feeling the heat I'll tell you Joe this number was a lot less in in the look ahe headlines you know how uh the sports books there put out kind of like the bigger matchups later in the season so now we're getting Kentucky minus double digits here they're going to have to win by uh 10 or more it makes me uh doubt it a little bit but I'll tell you I'm I'm a Believer in this Kentucky team I really am Joe it's tough to late 10 with 42 a Arkansas vs Oklahoma State - Joe Raineri half being the total but I think Kentucky gets it done I I see this one something like maybe I don't know 3113 something in that nature and I think Kentucky uh comes out on top here so uh I would go with big blue in in Lexington Joe oh going with big uh blue there yeah tough place to play too and I'm uh I'm kind of with you there Drew I think uh it is Big Blue this year which might be a pretty good uh pretty good spot to look to upset uh a team or two along the way this year uh cuz defense we know it travels there uh Drew and we also have let's not forget we got another game uh coming up this uh this weekend with one of my favorite teams and Ralph Michaels knows this but the uh Oklahoma State Cowboys at home taking on Arkansas and you got to love it Ralph uh a lot of people didn't realize that Bobby patrino is back in Arkansas yes he is actually calling plays I'm not sure if he's allowed anywhere near the volleyball team uh but I will tell you that he is without a doubt calling offensive plays for Arkansas and they put up a boatload of points last week against the Sisters of the Poor we know this uh 18 starters returning from last year for Oklahoma State guys 18 uh all five offensive linemen have returned uh they laid it down there no problem in that first week win there against South Dakota State Ali Gordon Bowman the quarterback there are points coming here uh and I have no idea um whether Oklahoma state is going to win by double digits or not which I think is what you have to assume if you're going to lay the eight here but I do think points are coming here uh 60 and a half is what we're seeing as the total uh Ralph I could be crazy here but I do think Arkansas is going to have some success moving the ball against this uh Oklahoma State Defense which is a work in progress but I know Oklahoma state is going to have success scoring and driving in this one it feels like a dead over to me and I don't think that should surprise anybody but I'd be shocked if Oklahoma State doesn't drop at least 30 points in this game so it would be nothing but an over for me Ralph uh and Bobby patrino back in the house and uh in Arkansas it's kind of hard to believe but uh I I do think Arkansas is going to have its ups and downs this year Joe I mean Bobby patrino is the greatest OC in the history of college football 70 points 687 yards 34 first downs um but let me tell you this I think I don't really have F FCS power ratings done but you look at Oklahoma State who they played um okay let's see South Dakota state was uh let's see the national champion from last year the best FCS team this year and they're likely better than maybe 30 or 40 FBS teams maybe even more than that so you know when you look at at the box score for Oklahoma State 394 to 388 don't be concerned that is an excellent team I this is a random stat show that while you were talking about Oklahoma State I went to the database and took a look you know about those teams like Arkansas I put in the database game number two teams that scored at least 45 points against an FCS fo and shut them out and now they're on the road to me I thought those teams would have been overrated right you think oh my God these teams are great they beat an FCS team at home they shut them out they won by 45 or more points now they're traveling those teams like Arkansas are actually 13 and four ATS since 2013 that surprises me I'm not going to base a bet on that but um you know just something to keep an eye on that even surprises me sometimes when I do go to the database I do like Oklahoma State this year you know Bowman did all he had to do I mean I'm surprised he threw the ball 34 times but again they played a legitimate Foe and they were challenged early they only rushed for 3.3 yards per carry that to me has them circling the wagons here I do like Oklahoma State in this role they do have Tulsa on Deck yes Tulsa is that little brother that can be annoying but Tulsa is down quite a bit this year and to me even though the stat show off an FCS shutout win I think had Arkansas played a different opponent this team this game would have likely been 15 or 16 right so not giving too much credit to Arkansas I still think there is value with the Cowboys yeah big big question with them is always going to be defense but it is a work in uh in progress here not so much on the offensive side of the ball again when you return 18 starters from a year ago that's a that's a good sign for Oklahoma State at home always a tough place to play in Stillwater against an SEC opponent all right so we've got three games out of the way we've got two big games coming up this week that we're going to get your guys uh thoughts on a quick reminder if you're joining us uh live here on the show or on the rewatch we certainly appreciate you doing that make sure you hit that like button or follow us on Instagram and Tik Tok if you're hanging with us as we get ready for college football week two and don't forget you can visit Ralph Michaels as well as Drew Martin over wagertalk.com those guys are locked and loaded of course for week two in college football not to mention week one in the Iowa vs Iowa State - Roundtable NFL a lot of great reasons to go visit them over at wagertalk.com how about the S Hawk man one of the games uh each and every year that is always a battle and it's usually always a one score one possession game it always usually comes down to the end when Iowa State and Iowa get ready to do battle here so Drew I'm G to to you I I don't know what the hell that was in the second half with Iowa last week but if they can carry that over into this game there's going to be some points scored in the game here Drew but Iowa State a lot of people have them as a uh as a dark horse this year in the Big 12 how do you see this thing playing out sure Joe I mean I I I could see the Hawkeyes as a dark horse it's kind of tough to tell you know that's what week two college football is really all about when some of these teams play you know like North Dakota how much can you really grasp from it well we're going to find out in week two um you bring up the shawk here Joe first off I mean in my opinion it's the best uh rivalry name in all of sports s Hawk I mean it's it's just bringing a lot into it and we got to look at the Hawkeyes part of the shawk they've won seven of the last eight so they've kind of had their number here and you bring up the offense I mean just in week one we know how bad that offense was last year I mean if you follow college football I mean Iowa and unders and just not scoring it's kind of their theme but what they they had they won 40 to nothing I mean scoring 40 points something news there and granted it's Illinois state so it's kind of that same theme of bringing it now to a more competitive opponent how much does it show here well they're playing at home it's a tough place to play in kinnick stadium overall I do like Iowa here I think they make it eight of nine Joe uh bringing this the point spread in the ultimate equalizer now it is near a field goal if you can get it at three I like it a lot more more three in the hook uh gets a little bit iffy because the Market's telling us what 34 and a half 35 as the total points are going to be at a premium but uh what we get another 3:30 time slot here I think the the Hawkeyes take it Joe I it's not going to be a Best Bet by any means for me but uh I I see him winning by maybe you know a touchdown something in that nature and uh hey let's call it maybe 27 to 20 Iowa on top at home always and and Drew is right uh Ral this is one of the best rivalries in all of college uh football it really it truly is I mean the entire damn State seems to uh shut down here but these are also two teams Ralph that this year there's a lot of expectations here I mean Iowa cracks me up every year they keep throwing a seven and a half win total out there to start the year and Kurt fence apparently forget and every year Kurt France wins 10 games goes way over that win total uh and for Matt Campbell and Company it's it's been a rough uh couple of years underperforming but they really think they got a team in Iowa State we're going to learn rather quickly are we not in this game you have a decent team uh couple notes what you talked about Joe first uh let's see probably 80% of the population of Iowa and Iowa State are on the campuses of these two teams so the state has nothing else to do but get excited about this so it is like holy we you know we got to follow this um uh I went through I was going through some numbers uh let's see the second thing I want to say is looking at the numbers at last week's game when Iowa put up 492 yards and scored 40 points well let's just fire fence right he was suspended last week you know you look at the last time they put up 490 2 yards when fence was the head coach uh I have to go back to 200 19 when they put up 644 yards against Middle Tennessee so they have not top this number in in that long but let's talk about this series they always play game usually game two or game three so there's a lot on the line five straight unders in this series this series The Last 11 years 10 unders one over the series the last 20 years 18 unders two overs the last nine games that Iowa has hosted not only nine straight unders but they've gone under by 17 points per game you can talk over under numbers all you want but when you have a 9 and0 over number a 9 and0 over under record with an over under margin of 17 points per game that is massive the teams split the last two years with the roow teams winning each time but Iowa has won seven of eight so Iowa State really is still the little brother although they have a better chance to finish higher up in the Big 12 than Iowa does in the Big 10 so I went to the database this total is what 35 you know you look at a crazy total this low this this number surprised me as well when I went back to 2010 and looked at totals of 36 or less early in the season games number one two three four and five totals of 36 or less have gone over 76% since 2010 when you get into the conference play and the meat of the season from game number six on those low totals are low for a reason they've gone under the total 69% since 2010 so early season low totals have gone over from game five on they have been clear under plays I'm a big fan of this Iowa State team and when I was doing the gold sheet top 25 videos I actually did put a small bet on Iowa State to win the Big 12 you know you look at a quarterback in in Beck who started off very slow as a Young quarterback but truly progressed Iowa state has their two toughest games the last two games of the Season against the two big 12 co- favorites in Utah and Kansas State so if you're gonna pay one of those long shots in the conference play at a team with a Young quarterback that has those big games later on in the season I talked about those early game number one ads and we talked about Iowa's offense listen Iowa's offense they played Illinois State they scored 40 points but I am really not that impressed with their 241 yards rushing and 6.0 yards per carry I think this game does golf get off to the traditional pressure packed instate rivalry and I do like under in the first half either 17 or 17 and a half obviously if you could find that 17 and a half it's a huge huge difference please do shop around check the wager talk live odds page it is WTB ODS to check for those current odds but for the show my best beted here on the S Hawk first half under the 17 or 17 and a half uh seeing a lot of uh comments in the chat rooms uh here about the under I believe 50 Nick bands over on Instagram has it uh 2117 I believes that Iowa's offense is better than Iowa State's I will say this uh that Iowa State lost its best defender it's uh it's captain in linebacker there Caleb bacon lower leg injury has had surgery uh Matt Campbell said he hopes to have him back uh sometime towards the end of the season but there's no guarantee so that is a big loss on the defensive side for Iowa State Matt Campbell also one and six against Iowa uh this has not been a great spot for Matt Campbell at Iowa State uh and especially heading into that Stadium I think this is going to be uh an interesting game and was Cade mcnamar and what we saw in the second half uh you know uh just a facade or will this continue into this game I think it's going to be a good one for sure but that is a ridiculously low total and the wind ain't even blowing Drew it's not like they're gonna have 60 m it's not like there is a cyclone happening in there so uh it'll be interesting to see how many points are put up here by Iowa I think in this game the other big game that everyone is looking forward to of course is going to be Michigan at home taking on Texas uh Ralph I'm sure your numbers somewhere will reflect in I know you're going to look it up but Drew uh I can't remember the last time michigan was getting more than a touchdown at home in Texas vs Michigan - Roundtable a game I don't care who the hell they were playing certainly not in the harbar years but yet here we are uh laying seven seven and a half with sarc oh my goodness I can't think of anything more drink worthy than watching this game and getting absolutely lit up as Sark figures out a way to screw it up so Drew how are you approaching Michigan getting 7 s and a half against Texas in this one yeah what a game Joe I can't wait for this one and I mean you talk about Big Time matchups here uh Sark being involved laying a big number on the road and talking about just the number in itself you know I mentioned earlier kind of like look ahe headlines and college football from some of these Sports books this one's ticked up a lot after the week one performances from both of these two squads I mean it was What minus three and a half now you're laying over a touchdown with the Longhorns that brings something into question and it it's kind of like week two when both teams play kind of inferior opponents and then come back to at least opponents you would think are a lot more comparable to the Personnel that you have and the changes that we get as Sports betters that can be a great thing in my opinion to to find more winners than losers so on the Texas side of things I mean they're wide receivers everybody's talking about them a lot of talent likely going to be playing on Sundays and sure enough in week one they wi 52 to nothing over Colorado State in Michigan you know we saw what a little bit of a a quarterback uh backup quarterback having to come in Jack Tuttle getting a little bit banged up Davis Warren uh coming in taking some snaps not looking very good either but it's something if if the backup has to play a lot of times when he comes in not expecting to be the starting quarterback Joe it's almost like particularly in week one it's almost like you're not ready it's like you're drinking out of a fire hose when you go back you get a week of practice a lot of times we'll see that same athlete come out and play a little bit better that's something I've learned in sports betting don't just take one week to the next and surprises like that that's something pointing towards Michigan and they got a good defense no doubt about it I mean that defensive line is Stout so if you're looking to stop a Texas offense the best way to do so is get pressure on the quarterback I think Michigan can actually have some success doing that now obviously this the betting markets not like in uh the Wolverines here only a 25 yard Edge week one against Fred state but the defense you know it could be good enough to kind of like keep them in these games and and win these games even with quarterback uh kind of questions and sure enough their new defensive quarterback uh defensive coordinator Don Martell uh he comes from the Baltimore Ravens and uh I I wouldn't doubt that Michigan's gonna have a heck of a defense this season in terms of Texas a lot of people liking them but one and eight against the spread against Big 10 opponents 0 and seven against the spread as a favorite got that from The Mark Lawrence uh newsletter so hey if you're looking to lay a big a big number here with the Longhorns that's something to kind of pump the breaks and talked about the line movement over the touchdown hey I actually think this is one of those spots Joe where not a lot of people are going to be liking it it's kind of one of those ugly ones but how about this home team catching more than a touchdown against the Texas team that looks sharp week one hey I think this is a situation for it I think this is an ugly one big time matchup in the big house tough place to play uh it's going to be loud and I think Texas actually kind of struggles a little bit so give me seven in the hook with the home dog barking Joe Eric D in the chat uh also uh taking the points with Michigan uh in this one Drew right on there with you yeah you get old wink marale back in the old Don there on the defensive side for Michigan a Michigan team route by the way that only returned five starters from last year and I think one of them was the punter uh which is hilarious but yet that defense is for real and and let's face it no offense to Colorado State but going into the big house taking on a big 10 defense like this I I don't know if the market is just overvaluing Texas Maybe undervaluing uh Michigan it feels like this is a big number to carry Ralph uh I I don't know if you have it when H's the last time michigan was getting more than a touchdown at home against anybody uh it feels like this is also going to be a lower scoring game are you do you think that because look at his total well Joe I'm gonna you deserve a Miller Light and I I am happy to buy you a Miller Light because you you did an A plus job as the host letting me know what to go to the database before you went to Drew so I appreciate that so my database goes back to 1990 I'm gonna put you on the spot Joe since 1990 and again that's a long time to think back how many times has Michigan been a home dog of more than five right I can't it doesn't come to mind it can't even uh once maybe well listen let let me let me call you out for a minute you got to remember those back to back to back Ohio State years they were a home dog in all those roles oh okay okay yes okay but besides besides Ohio State they've been a home dog twice of more than five since 1990 Jesus in 2008 they were a five and a half Point home dog to Wisconsin they beat him outright and in 2020 they were a seven-point home dog to Wisconsin they lost that game 49-1 so they're one and one in that role if you add in the Ohio State Games as a home dog since 1990 they're actually 52 and one 71.4% now there's a lot that I liked what Drew said Drew did a great job breaking down this game and everyone in this business be it a a fan a handicapper or a better there is no bigger week in college football than week number two to with the Big O overreactions and that's exactly what this is all summer long Texas was three they went to three and a half they got some love they went to four Michigan struggles in one game Texas comes out and shuts out Colorado State 52 to nothing and that's a three-point adjustment on this game that's something that I will never ever bet into I don't mind betting a line move you know if it's just happens and it progresses and and there's still value but if you're betting into a line move because of a week one overreaction that is something that is going to cost you your entire bank roll as you continue to move forward I like this Texas team I like Quinn ERS yeah you were 74% at home against Colorado you know you ran the ball for almost 200 yards and 4.6 yards per carry you know but you had a 26 to 11 first down Edge you know on the flip side Michigan got out gained in the first half yes they had a pick six touchdown Which you know gave them one less possession but still couple things that I looked at in a way favorite in game number two versus a top 20 team remember Michigan is still ranked they're ranked number 10 so home dogs in game number two that are a top 20 team are 16 and 11 against the spread another situation to B Michigan teams that are a home dog and they're a top 10 team have actually covered 67% against the spread and how about this since 20120 yes we have a new coach yes we have a new DC but there's still a lot that gets transferred over from one season to the next Michigan with a low total of 49 or less as simply that when Michigan has a total of 49 or less they are 15 and two against the spread that is 88% I think this is an overreaction I did a Texas video this summer saying I do like the Longhorns against Michigan laying the three or three and a half it's completely moved out of the realm of not even liking Texas to actually flipping sides to the Wolverines if you ever have had the mentality or have you ever heard about a defensive home dog this is the example of that I lean with Michigan and yes if you watch the Texas video over the summer I said I like Texas but I given you all the reasons why you're allowed to change your mind and that's what you do as an astute better and listen we also know um Ralph and uh Drew we know that week two in college football is is the week of complete overreactions uh and the market does it some teams getting too much credit some teams not getting enough credit usually this is the week this and next week uh Drew are the weeks in which you can really capitalize and build that bank roll by looking at uh at looking at some teams that are just getting way too much credit and some teams that may not have looked apart last week uh and the market is completely uh flipping him so usually week two and three Drew is where you look to find those spots and and hammer away and have a good time and build up the bank roll here for college football absolutely Joe I I I I second that I mean a lot of what Ralph said and and what you're talking about right now is you know week two in college football I would actually put it like week two to about week seven or eight in college football I actually think is the best time to bet the sport of football Joe and and some of the reason is because not a lot of people know know a lot about these teams so if you could really dig in deep on and find some of these teams that are undervalued that's a great way to win and just kind of ride them week two week three week four and then the market starts to kind of realize it and then by like week nine or 10 hey it's most of the values already kind of sipped out but you go back the last five or six years in college football guys there are multiple teams that go like the first eight weeks of the college football season and goes six- two seven- one ATS it is it happens each and every year so if you can find one of them say starting in week two here that just kind of even if they're losing but they're staying within this the the point spread actually that's that a lot of times that's better you know if you can find a team that's like three and three yet six and0 against the spread that's one of my best profiles to bet Joe it's just because nobody talks about those teams and week two to week eight in college football man uh this is a prime time to be a sports better and find more winners than losers I agree 100% I I will say this is the uh this is the weeks next couple of weeks where those uh moneyline dog parlays coming to play uh in college football just saying especially the old round Robins here you know take five take four take three take two uh it is a good time of year if you can find those spots in which the dogs are very much alive in college football the one thing uh Ralph that I want to address because I love I love our uh our our peeps in the chat room here but if I watch somebody if I see somebody else post how they're teasing college football totals I'm going to throw up uh I listen I am for anything listen have fun with it not everyone is looking to be a professional handicapper I get it enjoy it but I will tell you this and Ralph back me up if I or tell me if I'm wrong I can't think of a more a bigger Sport with bigger variant on a week- toe basis than trying to tease college football totals in any way shape or form I think is just a losing proposition have fun with it but my goodness Ralph I can't think of anything worse than trying to think that a Sixpoint teaser in a college football total is somehow going to move the needle one way or the other for me Joe um I have bet maybe seven College Football Teasers in my life that included a total and I guarantee you that all seven have been in the Army Navy game taking the dog and the under so again when you're talking a total of 34 and you're teasing it that's completely different than taking a total of 70 and teasing it so um you know if someone came to me and said hey I really want to tease Iowa state in the under I would say okay that may be the only instance this week or for the next four weeks that I would say that may not be the dumbest bet you make but there's two things that I want to mention real quick Drew made some great points but when you are trying to chase a streak if you have a team team that's won five straight and they're five and0 ATS you know what Vegas has adjusted the line when you have a team that has gotten crushed has lost five straight by 50 points per game they're 0 and five ATS Vegas has has adjusted the line the true value is finding an ATS streak where a team is maybe only 500 straight up or a huge negative streak where the team is maybe 500 straight up those are the situations where you are getting True Value betting an ATS streak relative to a straightup record and one last thing just so we're taking some time and helping people become better betters this year one thing I do love looking at is SEC teams that roll through their non-conference schedule putting up 40 or 50 points per game listen when you're playing your SEC opener your offense changes 100% % so I look at high-scoring SEC teams when they're playing that first SEC game you're not going to be as cute you're going to be conservative you're gonna run the ball you're not g to go for it on fourth down in you know near Midfield all of those things add up to early conference season unders with those high-scoring games so great Point Drew I just wanted to add on to it and keep a look when people are playing those first conference games off a huge non-conference schedule lot of other uh interesting totals on the board with the Duke Blue Devils and Northwestern being another one of those teams where first one to 14 wins uh at least that's what the market thinks is that total is hovering around 36 35 37 somewhere in that ballpark there with two quality defenses and maybe not the greatest offenses here another low total without weather I think playing I mean we're still in September and we're still getting totals Dre in the mid-30s here little shocking for week two of college football that we're looking at some totals that are happening right in the mid-30 number here and we got no snowstorms wind or anything else that's going on right now in college football yeah that's a great point I mean watching the weather for sure and and we are only in the month of September so things will change once we get to you know late October and November um but will say you know something I noticed in week one is that Northwestern kind of uh what interterm stadium there that's right on the lake and some sometimes there can be wind I know just from betting Northwestern games in the past but maybe with that Stadium I I did notice that there was not uh you know stands on the side so for that wind to blow I got to do a little bit more research on that but I'll tell you Joe in that one I mean Friday Night Lights getting the weekend off started I know there's an NFL game on Friday that a lot of people be watching but that's a great one a high IQ bowl and Dukes really struggled against the Elon Phoenix that's a game that I I watched a lot I don't know if they were holding back I don't think so you know they lost their head coach new quarterback and Northwestern looked strong look strong on defense so I actually think this number short and Northwestern minus two and a half actually some of the more key shops uh in the global Marketplace already to three um I think northwestern's worth a bet here Joe I I think that number short at two in the hook I drew I'm with you I mean I thought northwestern's defense did a great job against the the Red Hawks 267 total yards uh you mentioned Elon I mean listen it's Manny Diaz Ralph we always know Manny Diaz is gonna you know Drew Drew and I both know that he's going to bring the defense you got to think uh the Duke defense is certainly going to show up and show out only 140 yards uh for Elon they do have I believe uh the kid the transferred from Texas uh the Malik Murphy I believe is the uh is the QB now for Duke it's going to take a little bit of time there for the Duke Blue Devil offense to kind of get acclimated but uh you know Drew brings up a good point this is a low total for a reason here Ralph it would not Shock me uh if this thing barely gets uh to the mid-30s here because it does kind of feel like the first one to 17 is going to win yeah well you're giving Manny Diaz a lot of credit remember these are still the Duke players on defense uh I will say this I went to the database it does show winds 18 to 19 up to 25 miles an hour Friday at in in Chicago and you know you know lacrosse team that plays on that field may be able to outscore the Northwestern Wildcats this week we'll see what happens I'm kind of with you there uh SB all over Northwestern in this game might be a little uh a little light there Drew I'm kind of with you I mean this is a game we have seen Northwestern be pretty darn good at uh here at home Friday night light should be a good one uh as they get ready here for week two in college football and don't forget guys opportunity to be able to hop on board with Ralph or Drew over on their Pages at wagertalk.com right now both guys locked loed ready to go here for week two in college football we got NFL both these guys locked and loaded there let's not forget of course uh we still have to finish out the regular season in Major League Baseball I would highly encourage you guys to check out Drew's daily Diamond that video posted each and every morning if you haven't seen it already the link is in the description for those of you joining us on YouTube here and Ralph what else you got rolling here over at wager talk you you know I just wanted to mention um you know we have a sh we have a Thursday show this week and a Friday show and we really wanted to say thank you to everyone that does tune in and watch this college football show I have a special that is valid only for Drew for me and the three guys on tomorrow's show with you Joe Brian Steve Marill and Teddy you could use the code CFB 99 that will not be advertised anywhere else to get 30 days of college football from any of the five of us for just $99 go to my page Drew's page or again Brian Leonard Steve or Teddy code CFB 999 four weeks 30 days college football $99 can't go wrong CFB 99 utilize it guys take advantage of it right now hop on board partner up with these guys for what is no doubt going to be a huge and I mean huge uh week in college football week two it is time to build that bank roll if it was a rough week one don't worry about it week two is here and plenty of opportunities to hop on board and to build up that bank roll here as football season is back will'll be back of course again tomorrow another Edition Merill Brian Leonard and the crew will be here we'll be breaking Tak down five more big games coming up in week two on behalf of Ralph and Drew though we appreciate the the time as always don't forget to hit that like button and make sure you come back and join us another edition of the college football kickoff show 24 hours from now until then cash those tickets tonight guys we'll see you again soon